IT is easy to say that prophecy is vain, and literary prophecy the most insecure of all. Twenty-two years before the French Revolution, David Hume declared that the writings of Rousseau had once for all been consigned to perpetual neglect and oblivion. T'he same acute critic declared confidently that posterity would regard John Home's Douglas as the chief of English tragedies. But reluctant as any historical student must be to assume the totally different functions of the prophet, it is not difficult to show that, if it is his business to occupy himself chiefly with the raw materials of history, he must inevitably try to peer forward somewhat into the future of the historical art. He has no other course. The Guide to the Materials for American History in the Public Record Office of Great Britain, of which we published a volume the other day, is not intended for the benefit of the historian whose book is published today or tomorrow. It comes too late for him. He will say of it as the Abbe de Rene Vertot, author of a once famous History of the Siege of Malta, said when new materials were shown him which upset his narrative before it was published, Monsieur, mon siege est fait. Several years must pass before any considerable portion of the materials we have listed at the Public Record Office has been examined by historical students, still more years before the fresh facts in them have found their way into historical monographs or articles, still more before they are incorporated into the general histories. In the field of history, indeed, the advancement of learning may be likened to the advance of an army. The workers in organized institutions of research must go before, like pickets or scouting parties making a reconnaissance. Then, after some interval, comes the light cavalry of makers of doctoral
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