Famous Economist Research Articles

The Future of Industrialism*

ANY years ago, when I had hardly more than begun my studies in economics, I attended a public lecture by a famous economist from another country (now long deceased). I had considerable respect for some of his work, but he chose on this occasion to pontificate on the state of the world. I walked away from the lecture in company with a non-economist, a very perceptive person. 'He is bogus, isn't he? ' said my friend; and I found some difficulty in defending him. The subject with which I am to deal is expressed in such big words that I am very much afraid of exposing myself to the same condemnation. I must begin, if I am to have a chance of avoiding it, by deciding exactly what I am to mean. What does one mean by 'industrialism '? One thinks of it, of course, as the state of society that was brought into being by the Industrial Revolution. As an historical description, that will do; but if we are to say anything about its future, we need something more than the starting point of an historical epoch. Will that epoch terminate, or is it already terminating? Before such questions can even be considered, we need a different kind of definition. We have to make up our minds what it was that started in the Industrial Revolution; or, more strictly, which of the things that then started we are to regard as the main thing. A recent paper by Professor Kuznetz 1 is of considerable help for this purpose. He defines not industrialism but what he calls 'modem economic growth'; this, however, is near enough to our 'industrialism ' to give us something from which to begin. He defines his 'modern growth' by six characteristics, which, in brief and inadequate summary, are the following: (1) rapid increase in production and in population; (2) rapid increase in productivity-output relatively to input; (3) structural change, as exemplified by movement of population away from agriculture; (4) social change-urbanisation and secularisation; (5) revolution in transport and communication, making the world 'one world' as it was not before; (6) unequal growth between countries, so that some are 'advanced' while others are left behind.

Institutional Change in a Welfare State: Sweden

A modern welfare state is expected to satisfy the demands of its citizens for security and at the same time foster and encourage economic growth in order to maintain full employment and a rising per capita real income. Recent institutional innovations in Sweden offer some instructive examples of the way one welfare state has met this challenging assignment. In 1961, when the Swedish Parliament was debating some sweeping changes in the institutional structure of the social insurance system, Bertil Oblin, leader of the Folks Party and internationally famous economist, presented three principles on which he maintained the debates of the Riksdag should be based. A flexible translation of Ohlin's proposals gives the following categories: