False Dawn Research Articles

Yet Another False Dawn? An Examination of the Liberal Democrats' Performance in the 2010 General Election

Following the first leaders’ debate, the Liberal Democrats poll rating surged and remained high throughout the election campaign. There was an expectation that the party would perform much better than in 2005 and bridge the ‘credibility gap’. The reality proved to be much different. Here we explore the factors that shaped the Liberal Democrat vote in the 2010 election. Using seemingly unrelated regression models, we identify continuity with the past: importance of local election success, first-time incumbency and Liberal Democrat incumbents building a personal vote. We also provide evidence that the Liberal Democrats failed to advance in those new types of area that proved so fruitful in 2005. Using the 2010 BES, we also show that party identification mattered and Clegg proved to be a valuable asset to the party. However, the credibility problem proved once again to be a significant barrier to the party achieving an electoral breakthrough.

Before the Deluge

Both sides loved Russia: the Slavophiles as a mother, the Westernisers as a child N. Berdiaev, The Russian Idea, London, 1947, p. 39. Laura Engelstein's volume of interrelated essays (most of them previously published) advances a deceptively simple argument, namely that for much of the nineteenth and twentieth century Russia failed to adopt the tenets of Western liberalism and instead fell sway to the powerful forces of anti-liberalism. Brief glimmers of hope – the aftermath of the February 1917 revolution and the period immediately following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 – were extinguished, ensuring that the liberal aspiration for the rule of law and a flourishing civil society would be a false dawn. At certain other times too (and to adopt a different metaphor), the instruments of autocratic rule were blunted. The 1905 revolution forced Tsar Nicholas II to accept an elected parliament and some civil rights, but the promise of liberal government quickly faded as conservative forces regained the initiative. One consequence of the heavy hand of authoritarian rule was, Engelstein argues, the attractiveness of revolution for many members of the Russian intelligentsia whose liberal credentials were also in doubt. This broad argument is made primarily in relation to the final decades of the Russian empire, so neither Prince Georgii L'vov, the first prime minister of the Provisional Government, nor Yegor Gaidar, the embodiment of post-Soviet liberal aspirations, make an appearance in this book. We are offered instead a thoughtful account of the trials and tribulations of the tsarist state, its defenders and its critics, as well as insights into underlying ideas about the proper place of religion, science and morality in nineteenth and early twentieth-century Russia.

The Independent Commission on Youth Crime and Antisocial Behaviour: fresh start or false dawn?

PurposeIn 2010, “The Independent Commission on Youth Crime and Antisocial Behaviour” published a major report. This paper critically assesses the report by placing it within a context of juvenile/youth justice policy reform extending over the last 50 years.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is based upon national and international policy analysis and comparative research.FindingsIn recent years the persistent politicisation of youth crime and an obsession with “tough” responses to child offenders in England and Wales have produced one of the most problematic youth justice regimes in the Western world. Against this backdrop the report of the Independent Commission on Youth Crime and Antisocial Behaviour is designed to influence policy reform. By drawing on an international evidence base, this paper assesses the merits of the Commission's proposals and the extent to which they signify a “fresh start” or a “false dawn”.Originality/valueThe paper argues that international evidence, alongside the provisions of both global and pan‐European human rights standards, provides a compelling case for raising the age of criminal responsibility in England and Wales, for developing youth justice policy and practice in accordance with the principle of minimum necessary intervention and for abolishing prison service and private sector penal custody for children and young people.

Approaches to Understanding the Inaugural CIA Covert Operation in Italy: Exploding Useful Myths

The Italian election of April 1948 represented the first occasion on which the CIA intervened to influence events abroad. Understanding of the operation has been shaped by three dissimilar approaches that have been critical, celebratory, and stressed continuity. These approaches have, in turn, fuelled a series of useful myths around the episode. Agency declarations of greater ‘openness’ after the Cold War promised to advance historiographical debates on this – and other – interventions through the declassification of records, although proved a false dawn. This article offers an alternative method to analyse the case through a broader international frame of inquiry that considers CIA action in the context of both American and Italian efforts during the election. In so doing, it challenges the useful myths around 1948.

Evidence-based and analytical people management: new or false dawn?

Evidence-based and analytical people management: new or false dawn?

The struggle for Arab independence: Riad el-Solh and the makers of the modern Middle East

1. Grandee of the empire 2. An Ottoman childhood 3. Education in revolution 4. In the shadow of the gallows 5. Faysal's false dawn 6. Fugitive from the French 7. The great Syrian revolution 8. A hero's return 9. Man of the people 10. Riad el-Solh, Zionism and the Hajj Amin al-Husayni 11. Ben Gurion and the Arabs 12. The making of a Lebanese patriot 13. Competing identities: the battle for men's minds 14. The politics of the street 15. The changing fortunes of war 16. Rashid 'Ali and 'Operation Exporter' 17. Riad Bey and general spears 18. The electoral challenge 19. The compromise of the national pact 20. The decisive battle 21. Painful awakening 22. Goodbye to the French 23. Master of the local scene 24. The unwanted war 25. The challenge from the revolutionaries 26. Murder in Amman.

A False Dawn or a New Era? A Critical Analysis of the Possible Importance and Effectiveness of the African Development Bank (AfDB) African Legal Support Facility (ALSF)

On June 2009, the African Development Bank (AfDB) launched a new facility called the African Legal Support Facility (ALSF). The introduction of this facility was a sharp response to vulture funds, which had become nightmares to many African governments. This came to the fore when in 2007 Donegal sued Zambia to pay it US $55 million for a debt Zambia owed Romania, which Donegal had bought for US $3.4 million. The amount claimed by Donegal was 17 times the amount it had purchased the debt from Romania and it obtained judgment in the tune of US $15.5 million. The debt was finally settled for US $15 million. It should be noted that since 1999, about 19 claims have been brought by vulture funds against developing countries. The objectives of this article are four folds. First, it will discuss the nature of vulture funds either when they operate as private equities or as hedge funds. This will provide background knowledge on what they are. Second, the paper will examine the Facility i.e. its creation, composition and raison d’etre. Third, and most importantly, the paper will critically examine four inter-linked issues to determine the suitability and utility of this Facility, especially in the present circumstance in which the African Development Bank operates. In discussing these problems, references to the strengths and weaknesses of the implementation of past programs or facilities of AfDB will be made. This will be to determine whether this Facility is either just one of those projects whose advent elicited so much hype, but failed to stand the test of time especially during implementation or whether, it will hold muster against all the potential odds and provide a much wanted relief to African governments taken hostage by vulture funds.

The tricolour in Beijing: Indian sport, Olympism and nationalism

This paper deals with the impact of the Beijing Olympics on Indian sport. After winning her first ever individual gold medal in Beijing Indian sport appeared poised for take-off, if there was a fundamental systemic overhaul. Beijing, in other words, presented Indian sport with an unprecedented opportunity. This paper examines how Olympic sports became central to the Indian sporting imagination post-Beijing and what the country needs to create a sporting culture. It suggests that, unless a sporting culture is created, then Beijing will have proven to be a false dawn.

The new hot ticket [concentrating solar thermal power

A lack of government support pulled the rug from under the fledgling Concentrating Solar Thermal Power (CSP) industry. Concentrating Solar Thermal Power (CSP) industry has been striving for many years to achieve, despite a false dawn in the 1980s when CSP's early pioneer (Luz International, which built nine CSP plants in California's Mojave Desert) went bankrupt. This signalled the start of a dormant period as CSP technology gradually faded into the background of the renewable electricity sector, surpassed by robust interest in the more 'glamorous' technology of PV.

Key Considerations for the Future of American Environmental Policy

Lee writes that the OGR was the false dawn of the communications age in American politics and government. It foretold the coming of the information-drenched twenty-first century ... As a presidential agency dedicated to communications, OGR was a forerunner of the institutionalization of such efforts within the modern White House as well as government-by-publicity (6). McClellan shows us the dangers of misusing that twenty-first-century communication capacity.

IMC: New horizon/false dawn for a marketplace in turmoil?

Is integrated marketing communications (IMC) a new horizon or simply another false dawn for marketing communications that has failed to live up to its promises? This issue becomes critical in a marketplace in economic turmoil. Two leading IMC researchers and writers argue for a totally new view and a new agenda for IMC going forward to match the new economic realities faced by marketing organizations. Their views are driven by marketplace, consumer and technology changes enhanced by increasing globalization and a shift of marketplace power to the consumer, all heavily influenced by the current economic conditions.

Targeting AMPA and kainate receptors in neurological disease: therapies on the horizon?

Aberrant excitatory neurotransmission is a prominent pathological component in many neurological and psychiatric diseases. Not surprisingly, the proteins that mediate the majority of excitatory signaling, ionotropic glutamate receptors (iGluRs), represent tempting targets for drug development efforts. This potential remains largely unrealized, however, despite a wealth of promising preclinical data. Here I discuss briefly the new applications and candidate drugs acting on the AMPA and kainate subtypes of iGluRs that suggest that a renaissance might be underway. AMPA and kainate receptors sub-serve different roles in the brain. AMPA receptors mediate the majority of fast excitatory neurotransmission and are critical cellular constituents of learning and memory processes. Over-activation of AMPA receptors, however, can be damaging to the nervous system, producing convulsions or neuronal death. Kainate receptors play more modulatory roles, fine-tuning the balance between neuronal excitation and inhibition. Positive AMPA receptor modulators strengthen excitatory transmission, enhance synaptic plasticity, and preclinical and preliminary clinical research suggested efficacy as cognition enhancers (Lynch, 2006; O’Neill and Dix, 2007). The first potentiator tested in large clinical trials was CX516 (Cortex Pharmaceuticals), which did not show efficacy in a variety of pathologies (eg Berry-Kravis et al, 2006). In contrast, a second-generation ampakine, CX717, normalized behaviors associated with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Further testing of CX717 for ADHD was not approved by the US Food and Drug Administration due to toxicological concerns, although approval was granted to continue trials of CX717 in Alzheimer’s disease. The outcome of this project is uncertain, however, given that a chemically distinct potentiator, LY415395 (Eli Lilly), failed to improve cognitive performance in an Alzheimer’s disease trial (Chappell et al, 2007). Recently, compelling preclinical data prompted initiation of two Phase II trials in Germany to determine if CX717 reverses or prevents respiratory depression during opiate analgesia. These appear to be the only ongoing studies of efficacy for positive AMPA receptor modulators in humans, as clinical studies for similar molecules have been suspended (Schering-Plough) or the results remain undisclosed (Servier, GlaxoSmithKline). Noncompetitive inhibitors of AMPA receptors, such as talampanel (Teva Pharmaceuticals) and perampanel (Eisai Medical Research), reduce over-excitation and potentially slow neuro-degeneration. These drugs were efficacious as adjunct therapies for refractory partial complex seizures (Howes and Bell, 2007); perampanel also alleviated diabetic and post-herpetic neuropathic pain and will be further tested for these indications. Results released from an in-progress study suggested that talampanel decreased mortality from glioblastoma, and an examination of its efficacy in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is planned. Perampanel was not effective as an add-on therapy to levodopa in Parkinson’s disease, however, and this program was terminated by Eisai. Preclinical data suggest that kainate receptors represent an untapped and attractive target for drug development. A nonselective AMPA/kainate receptor inhibitor, tezampanel (NGX424; Torrey Pines Pharmaceutics), reduced both migraine pain and other symptoms in a recent Phase II trial. This clinical efficacy is likely attributable to inhibition of kainate receptors, based on preclinical evidence with more selective antagonists developed by Eli Lilly. A chemically distinct AMPA/kainate receptor antagonist, NS1209 (NeuroSearch A/S), also alleviated refractory status epilepticus and neuro-pathic pain in small Phase II studies, but further research into this molecule was suspended. The apparent success of the first representatives of this new class of drugs provides a strong impetus for further development and clinical testing. It is evident from this overview that there is reason for both optimism and healthy skepticism regarding the clinical prospects of drugs targeting AMPA and kainate receptors. Cusp of a renaissance or a false dawn? Perhaps a Magic 8-Ball offers the best advice for would-be prognosticators: ‘Ask again later.’

A Study of Uncertainty in Software Cost and Its Impact on Optimal Software Release Time

For a software development project, management often faces the dilemma of when to stop testing the software and release it for operation, which requires careful decision making as it has great impact on both software reliability and project cost. In most existing research on the optimal software release problem, the cost considered was the Expected Cost (EC) of the project. However, what concerns management is the Actual Cost (AC) of the project rather than the EC. Treatment (such as minimization) of the EC may not ensure the desired low level of the AC due to the uncertainty (variability) involved in the AC. In this paper, we study the uncertainty in software cost and its impact on optimal software release time in detail. The uncertainty is quantified by the variance of the AC and several risk functions. A risk-control approach to the optimal software release problem is proposed. New formulations of the problem which are extensions of current formulations are developed and solution procedures are established. Several examples are presented. Results reveal that it seems crucial to take into account the uncertainty in software cost in the optimal software release problem; otherwise, unsafe decisions may be reached which could be a false dawn to management.

Editor’s Choice

Editor’s Choice

La littérature romani : une aubaine pour la littérature comparée

The paper sets out by challenging designations. The term « Romani literatures » is a construct which we create and which thus comes into existence, especially from a comparative point of view. As with the definition of literature in general, also with the definition of Romani literatures, people and groups exert power on other people and groups – so the task of definition is highly problematic.The paper argues that research in Romani literatures can enter into a profitable relationship with comparative literary studies. To demonstrate this, I draw on valuable encounters with authors, books and researchers which I have found important regarding my research on the topic. I discuss the flamenco play Camelamos naquerar (We want to speak, 1976) by Jose Heredia Maya from Spain, the book Kanyak 1978 / Die Strase der Zigeuner 1984 by the Hungarian author Jozsef Holdosi, the encounter with the poet and researcher Leksa Manus from Russia and Mozes F. Heinschink from Austria.For many Roma getting a book published is a difficult task. The example given is Wir leben im Verborgenen. Erinnerungen einer Rom-Zigeunerin (We live in secrecy. Memories of a Rom-Gypsy) by the Austrian Romni Ceija Stojka, pulished by Karin Berger in 1988. Ceija Stojka broke several taboos and went beyond existing limits in writing about the Holocaust as a Romani woman.Regarding criticism I emphasize the importance of the work of the late Romologist Milena Hubschmannova from the Czech-Republic, especially her research into the transformation from oral to written literature. I appreciate Hubschmannova’s criteria for analysis as being highly useful for anybody dealing with Romani literatures.A book I consider a stroke of luck within Romani literatures is A false dawn. My life as a Gypsy woman in Slovakia (Je suis nee sous une bonne etoile... Ma vie de femme tsigane en Slovaquie) by Ilona Lackova. The overcoming of stereotypes is successfully undertaken in this exemplary text stemming from oral tradition and realized in close collaboration between Ilona Lackova and Milena Hubschmannova, who recorded the text, translated it from Romani into Czech and edited it.

The 1964 General Election and the Liberals' False Dawn

The Liberal revival of the early 1960s gave the party good reason for optimism about the 1964 general election. Financially and organisationally the Liberal party was in reasonable shape; there had been a vigorous outpouring of policy; and in Jo Grimond there was a leader who, in terms of personal appeal, could match his rivals. But in spite of receiving more votes and a greater share of the poll than at any previous post-war election, the party failed decisively to increase its presence at Westminster. The electoral system, jibes about ‘wasted votes’ and, arguably, ‘policy theft’ by the other parties may be cited by way of explanation. Moreover the Liberals under Grimond had in certain respects appeared closer to Labour than ever before; certainly his reforming demeanour was similar to that of Harold Wilson. In the aftermath of the election, Grimond resurrected his earlier call for a realignment of the centre-left—this time more tentatively and to little effect. His party had not done quite well enough to hold the balance in the Commons. The false dawn was not inevitable, though.

A New Direction or Another False Dawn? David Cameron and the Crisis of British Conservatism

After three successive general election defeats, and three leaders since 1997, the Conservative Party finally seems to have staged a recovery during the first year of David Cameron's leadership. He has energetically sought to reposition the Conservatives ideologically, insisting on the need to depart from Thatcherism and move back towards the centre ground of British politics by promoting a more socially inclusive and compassionate Conservatism. His initial efforts seem to have been highly successful, with the Conservative Party enjoying its first sustained poll leads over Labour since 1992. However, more careful consideration suggests that the Conservative's recovery is rather fragile, and thus far dependent mainly on short-term factors. Certainly, the Party should be (and needs to be) much further ahead in the polls at this stage of the electoral cycle if it is to win the next general election. Moreover, Cameron has deliberately avoided making specific policy pledges so far, pending a comprehensive internal policy review to be completed by the summer of 2007, yet when more detailed policies are announced many of them are likely to refuel intra-party divisions between socially liberal modernizers and Thatcherite traditionalists, and this, in turn, will almost certainly alienate some of the electoral support (re)gained during Cameron's first year as Conservative leader. Consequently, a Conservative victory at the next general election remains highly unlikely.

Targeting BRAF/MEK in melanoma: new hope or another false dawn?

Nearly all melanomas harbor constitutive activity in the mitogen activated protein kinase pathway, which contributes to their growth and oncogenic behavior. This activity can arise as the result of the activating BRAF V600E, N-Ras and c-Kit mutations or through autocrine growth factor signaling. There is currently much interest in targeting two constituents of the pathway, BRAF and MEK, as a novel approach to melanoma therapy. In the current review we discuss the role of this pathway in melanoma progression and some of the issues that face the clinical translation of BRAF and MEK inhibitors as antagonists of mitogen activated protein kinase pathway in this disease.

False Dawn for CSR? Shifts in regulatory policy and the response of the corporate and financial sectors in Britain

We present a model of CSR as a set of mechanisms for aligning corporate behaviour with the interests of society in reducing externalities and promoting a sustainable corporate sector. These mechanisms include voluntary action by companies to go above minimum legal standards, with the aim of enhancing competitiveness (“action beyond compliance”); interventions by regulators designed to promote self‐regulation by industry (“reflexive law”); and steps taken by shareholders to put pressure on companies to make effective use of corporate assets (“shareholder engagement”). We then assess the degree to which the model is realised in current British practice. Focusing on the issue of working conditions, we find managerial resistance to the linking of CSR with internal employee relations, and obstacles to shareholder engagement on this issue.

Friedrich Spielhagen: Novelist of Germany's False Dawn by Jeffrey L. Sammons

576 Reviews Friedrich Spielhagen: Novelist of Germany's False Dawn. By JEFFREYL. SAMMONS. (Untersuchungen zur deutschen Literaturgeschichte, I I7) Tiibingen: Niemeyer. 2004. XViii+340pp. ?66. ISBN 3-484-32II7-2. There can be no doubt that Friedrich Spielhagen (I829-I9I 1) was one of the most prolific novelists of German Realism and certainly the most important proponent of the German socio-political novel (Zeitroman) in the later nineteenth century. And yet most of his extensive ceuvre is utterly forgotten, buried under the prejudice against German nineteenth-century literature in general and Spielhagen's presumed 'Dichter-Journalismus' (as Wilhelm Raabe called it) in particular. While other Realist writers were rediscovered in the i960s and I970s, this renewed interest in Realist poetics has bypassed Spielhagen, at best touching on his flawed theory of 'objective narration' and using his most successful novels as convenient examples of popular fiction and prevalent discourses. As with many other writers of German nineteenth century narrative obliterated by the canon which emerged with the rise of Germanistik at the end of the nineteenth century, assessments of Spielhagen's place in German literary history in recent research have largely been based on highly selective reading and second- or third-hand judgements. In presenting what is essentially the first comprehensive monograph on Spielhagen since the 1920s, questioning his decanonization and reassessing his novels in in-depth textual aswell as contextual analysis, Jeffrey Sammons is therefore not just redefining research on the author, but also making a vital contribution to the rediscovery of German nineteenth-century literature at large. Readers may not always agree that 'it is not somuch from incapacity as from perverse purposiveness that [Spielhagen] lacks the finesse of Fontane, the experimentalism of Raabe, or [. . .] the edgy humor of Keller' (p. xiii), but Sammons's highly perceptive study of Spielhagen's works cer tainly demonstrates that many of his thirty-eight novels and novellas are crucial for a new understanding of late nineteenth-century literary and cultural developments in Germany, while some are actually worth rereading in their own right. In recon structing Spielhagen's literary development as 'an idealistic and patriotic national liberal who could not adapt his moral and political instincts to the Wilhelminian Reich' (pp. xiii-xiv), Sammons emerges with a quite different Spielhagen from the stereotypes of decanonization, exploring aspects of his novel-writing and emphasiz ing texts which have so far been largely ignored. The two most important of these reassessments are probably the critical dismissal of Spielhagen's 'theory of the novel and his practice of literary criticism' as a 'disaster area', which is quite out of line with the author's own practice of writing (p. xiii), and the focus on the forgotten later novels from the i88os and I8gos, where Spielhagen isbeginning to redefine his socio-political thinking and his style of writing in the face of growing Wilhelminian anti-liberalism and the challenge of French literary modernism. Sammons's critical rereading of Spielhagen's ceuvre broadly follows the author's development, while the middle section of his study explores recurring motifs and themes in thewider contexts of German Realism. The first section charts Spielhagen' s life and the beginnings of his writing up to his early literary success in the I86os with novels such as Problematische Naturen (1862), In Reih'und Glied (i 866), and Hammer und Amboj3 (1869). As in the book's third section on Spielhagen's later novels, quite a lot of space isgiven to plot summaries as the basis for brief interpretations focusing on key characters, motifs, and themes such as Spielhagen's Goethe reception, his interest in Ferdinand Lassalle as a problematic model of socialist power politics, and his interest in industrialization and technological progress. Although the lack of a reading knowledge of the texts discussed in the audience which the book addresses clearly justifies a narrative approach to textual analysis, the need to manage Spielhagen's complex plots and his extensive character arrangements sometimes leaves Sammons MLR, 10I.2, 2oo6 577 with little space to discuss the literary and cultural traditions and models which the author draws on or to analyse the techniques of his writing inmore detail. This iswhere the middle section of...