Fall Streamflow Research Articles

Contribution of rock glacier discharge to late summer and fall streamflow in the Uinta Mountains, Utah, USA

Abstract. Water draining from rock glaciers in the Uinta Mountains of Utah (USA) was analyzed and compared with samples of groundwater and water from the primary stream in a representative 5000 ha drainage. Rock glacier water resembles snowmelt in the early summer but evolves to higher values of d-excess and greatly elevated Ca and Mg content as the melt season progresses. This pattern is consistent with models describing a transition from snowmelt to melting of seasonal ice to melting of perennial ice in the rock glacier interior in late summer and fall. Water derived from this internal ice appears to have been the source of ∼25 % of the streamflow in this study area during September of 2021. This result emphasizes the significant role that rock glaciers can play in the hydrology of high-elevation watersheds, particularly in summers following a winter with below-average snowpack.

Assessment of the ability of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) to model historical streamflow in watersheds of Western Canada

Knowledge of present-day spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is vital for successful water management and policies for planned adaptation to climate change. Measured quantities of hydroclimatic variables, including precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, etc., are the primary indicators of water availability, and indices derived using several such primary variables provide a means to express water availability across a range of spatio-temporal scales. In this study, the ability of one such multi-scalar index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), computed at a range of time scales, was examined to see how well it could model historically observed warm season monthly and annual streamflow in 24 natural-flowing watersheds of western Canada. The empirical relationships between the SPEI, computed at 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12- and 24-month time scales, and monthly and annual streamflow were analyzed, showing significant correlations for all watersheds. The time scale of the SPEI with the strongest correlations varied seasonally. Based on these results, SPEI-based principal component regression (PCR) equations were calculated to model warm season monthly and annual historical streamflow. These PCR equations are able to adequately capture historical streamflow in these watersheds. Annual streamflow variability was better captured (mean = 0.46) than monthly variability (mean = 0.30 over March–October). Summer and fall streamflow variability was better captured (mean = 0.42 over June–September) than spring variability (mean = 0.15 over March–April).

Hillslope and groundwater contributions to streamflow in a Rocky Mountain watershed underlain by glacial till and fractured sedimentary bedrock

Abstract. Permeable sedimentary bedrock overlain by glacial till leads to large storage capacities and complex subsurface flow pathways in the Canadian Rocky Mountain region. While some inferences on the storage and release of water can be drawn from conceptualizations of runoff generation (e.g., runoff thresholds and hydrologic connectivity) in physically similar watersheds, relatively little research has been conducted in snow-dominated watersheds with multilayered permeable substrates that are characteristic of the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Stream water and source water (rain, snowmelt, soil water, hillslope groundwater, till groundwater, and bedrock groundwater) were sampled in four sub-watersheds (Star West Lower, Star West Upper, Star East Lower, and Star East Upper) in Star Creek, SW Alberta, to characterize the spatial and temporal variation in source water contributions to streamflow in upper and lower reaches of this watershed. Principal component analysis was used to determine the relative dominance and timing of source water contributions to streamflow over the 2014 and 2015 hydrologic seasons. An initial displacement of water stored in the hillslope over winter (reacted water rather than unreacted snowmelt and rainfall) occurred at the onset of snowmelt before stream discharge responded significantly. This was followed by a dilution effect as snowmelt saturated the landscape, recharged groundwater, and connected the hillslopes to the stream. Fall baseflows were dominated by either riparian water or hillslope groundwater in Star West. Conversely, in Star East, the composition of stream water was similar to hillslope water in August but plotted outside the boundary of the measured sources in September and October. The chemical composition of groundwater seeps followed the same temporal trend as stream water, but the consistently cold temperatures of the seeps suggested deep groundwater was likely the source of this late fall streamflow. Temperature and chemical signatures of groundwater seeps also suggest highly complex subsurface flow pathways. The insights gained from this research help improve our understanding of the processes by which water is stored and released from watersheds with multilayered subsurface structures.

Modeling guides groundwater management in a basin with river–aquifer interactions

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 seeks to maintain groundwater discharge to streams to support environmental goals. In Scott Valley, in Siskiyou County, the Scott River and its tributaries are an important salmonid spawning habitat, and about 10% of average annual Scott River stream flow comes from groundwater. The local groundwater advisory committee is developing groundwater management alternatives that would increase summer and early fall stream flows. We developed a model to provide a framework to evaluate those alternatives. We first created a water budget for the Scott Valley groundwater basin and integrated the detailed, spatiotemporally distributed water budget results into a computer model of the basin that simultaneously accounted for groundwater flow, stream flow and landscape water fluxes. Different conceptual representations (using the MODFLOW RIV package and MODFLOW SFR package) of the stream–aquifer boundary provided significantly different results in the seasonal dynamics of groundwater–surface water fluxes. As groundwater sustainability agencies draw up plans to meet SGMA requirements, they must choose and test simulation tools carefully.

Estimates of Glacier Mass Loss and Contribution to Streamflow in the Wind River Range in Wyoming: Case Study

The Wind River Range is a continuous mountain range, approximately 160 km in length, in west-central Wyoming. The presence of glaciers results in meltwater contributions to streamflow during the late summer (July, August, and September: JAS) when snowmelt is decreasing; temperatures are high; precipitation is low; evaporation rates are high; and municipal, industrial, and irrigation water are at peak demands. Thus, the quantification of glacier meltwater (e.g., volume and mass) contributions to late summer/early fall streamflow is important, given that this resource is dwindling owing to glacier recession. The current research expands upon previous research efforts and identifies two glaciated watersheds, one on the east slope (Bull Lake Creek) and one on the west slope (Green River) of the Wind River Range, in which unimpaired streamflow is available from 1966 to 2006. Glaciers were delineated within each watershed and area estimates (with error) were obtained for the years 1966, 1989, and 2006. Glacier volume (mass) loss (with error) was estimated by using empirically based volume–area scaling relationships. For 1966 to 2006, glacier mass contributions to JAS streamflow on the east slope were approximately 8%, whereas those on the west slope were approximately 2%. The volume–area scaling glacier mass estimates compared favorably with measured (stereo pair remote sensed data) estimates of glacier mass change for three glaciers (Teton, Middle Teton, and Teepe) in the nearby Teton Range and one glacier (Dinwoody) in the Wind River Range.

Simulating streamflow and the effects of projected climate change on the Savage River, Maryland, USA

The Savage River in western Maryland and its associated reservoir and watershed serves many purposes including recreation, drinking water supply, and auxiliary water supply for Washington DC. Streamflow on the Savage River was modeled using a simple hydrologic model and validated with historical streamflow observations. Future projected climate data were used to drive the model to assess the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on future streamflow. Winter streamflow is projected to increase, while spring, summer, and fall streamflow are projected to decrease. Annual streamflow totals show a slight negative trend over the coming century. Future changes in precipitation are more influential on future streamflow during the winter while temperature may be more important during the summer and fall. On an annual basis, by the year 2098, the impacts of temperature and precipitation will essentially cancel each other out resulting in only a small negative trend in annual streamflow. Increased streamflow during the winter months may not be able to compensate for decreased flow during the remainder of the year which raises concerns about the ability of the reservoir to supply water during future droughts.

Simulating the hydrological response to predicted climate change on a watershed in southern Alberta, Canada

The current body of research in western North America indicates that water resources in southern Alberta are vulnerable to climate change impacts. The objective of this research was to parameterize and verify the ACRU agro-hydrological modeling system for a small watershed in southern Alberta and subsequently simulate the change in future hydrological responses over 30-year simulation periods. The ACRU model successfully simulated monthly streamflow volumes (r2 = 0.78), based on daily simulations over 27 years. The delta downscaling technique was used to perturb the 1961–1990 baseline climate record from a range of global climate model (GCM) projections to provide the input for future hydrological simulations. Five future hydrological regimes were compared to the 1961–1990 baseline conditions to determine the average net effect of change scenarios on the hydrological regime of the Beaver Creek watershed over three 30-year time periods (starting in 2010, 2040 and 2070). The annual projections of a warmer and mostly wetter climate in this region resulted in a shift of the seasonal streamflow distribution with an increase in winter and spring streamflow volumes and a reduction of summer and fall streamflow volumes over all time periods, relative to the baseline conditions (1961–1990), for four of the five scenarios. Simulations of actual evapotranspiration and mean annual runoff showed a slight increase, which was attributed to warmer winters, resulting in more winter runoff and snowmelt events.

Predicting differential effects of climate change at the population level with life‐cycle models of spring Chinook salmon

AbstractHabitat conditions mediate the effects of climate, so neighboring populations with differing habitat conditions may differ in their responses to climate change. We have previously observed that juvenile survival in Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon is strongly correlated with summer temperature in some populations and with fall streamflow in others. Here, we explore potential differential responses of the viability of four of these populations to changes in streamflow and temperature that might result from climate change. First, we linked predicted changes in air temperature and precipitation from several General Circulation Models to a local hydrological model to project streamflow and air temperature under two climate‐change scenarios. Then, we developed a stochastic, density‐dependent life‐cycle model with independent environmental effects in juvenile and ocean stages, and parameterized the model for each population. We found that mean abundance decreased 20–50% and the probability of quasi‐extinction increased dramatically (from 0.1–0.4 to 0.3–0.9) for all populations in both scenarios. Differences between populations were greater in the more moderate climate scenario than in the more extreme, hot/dry scenario. Model results were relatively robust to realistic uncertainty in freshwater survival parameters in all scenarios. Our results demonstrate that detailed population models can usefully incorporate climate‐change predictions, and that global warming poses a direct threat to freshwater stages in these fish, increasing their risk of extinction. Because differences in habitat may contribute to the individualistic population responses we observed, we infer that maintaining habitat diversity will help buffer some species from the impacts of climate change.

A 400-year tree-ring record of the Puelo River summer–fall streamflow in the Valdivian Rainforest eco-region, Chile

The Puelo River is a watershed shared between Chile and Argentina with a mean annual streamflow of 644 m3 s−1. It has a high ecologic and economic importance, including introduced farmed salmon, tourism, sports fishing and projected hydroelectricity. Using Austrocedrus chilensis and Pilgerodendron uviferum tree-ring records we reconstructed summer–fall (December–May) Puelo River streamflow, which is the first of such reconstructions developed in the Pacific domain of South America. The reconstruction goes back to 1599 and has an adjusted r 2 of 0.42. Spectral analysis of the reconstructed streamflow shows a dominant 84-year cycle which explains 25.1% of the total temporal variability. The Puelo River summer–fall streamflow shows a significant correlation (P > 0.95, 1943–2002) with hydrological records throughout a vast geographic range within the Valdivian eco-region (35 to 46°S). Seasonal Puelo River interannual streamflow variability is related to large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation features. Summer–fall streamflows showed a significant negative correlation with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), whereas winter–spring anomalies appear to be positively connected with sea surface temperature variations in the tropical Pacific. In general, above- and below-average discharges in winter–spring are related to El Nino and La Nina events, respectively. The temporal patterns of the observed and reconstructed records of the Puelo River streamflow show a general decreasing trend in the 1943–1999 period. Projected circulation changes for the next decades in the Southern Hemisphere would decrease summer–fall Puelo River streamflows with significant impacts on salmon production, tourism and hydropower generation.

Climate impacts at multiple scales: evidence for differential population responses in juvenile Chinook salmon

1. We explored differential population responses to climate in 18 populations of threatened spring-summer Chinook salmon Onchorynchus tshawytscha in the Salmon River basin, Idaho. 2. Using data from a long-term mark-release-recapture study of juvenile survival, we found that fall stream flow is the best predictor of average survival across all populations. 3. To determine whether all populations responded similarly to climate, we used a cluster analysis to group populations that had similar annual fluctuations in survival. The populations grouped into four clusters, and different environmental factors were important for different clusters. 4. Survival in two of the clusters was negatively correlated with summer temperature, and survival in the other two clusters was positively correlated with minimum fall stream flow, which in turn depends on snow pack from the previous winter. 5. Using classification and regression tree analysis, we identified stream width and stream temperature as key habitat factors that shape the responses of individual populations to climate. 6. Climate change will likely have different impacts on different populations within this metapopulation, and recognizing this diversity is important for accurately assessing risks.