Identifying the most influential factors affecting the severity of maritime accidents is crucial for developing effective strategies to reduce accident losses. However, this task is challenging due to the complex interactions between influencing factors and the presence of numerous irrelevant and redundant factors. As a new effort, this paper proposes a multinomial logit model with adaptive sparse group lasso penalty (MLASGL) to identify critical factors influencing the severity of maritime accidents. To fully illustrate the effect of complex interactions on severity, factor importance is initially evaluated using association rule mining and complex networks. Subsequently, adaptive weights are constructed based on the factor importance evaluation, followed by proposing an adaptive sparse group lasso that can impose a greater penalty on the noise factors. Additionally, considering that severity as a decision-making objective is often a multi-categorical variable, the multinomial logit is utilized to portray the relationship between the influencing factors and severity. Simultaneously, the negative log-likelihood function of the multinomial logit model is incorporated into the proposed adaptive sparse group lasso to eliminate irrelevant and redundant factors, thereby realizing the identification of critical factors. Finally, the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method are demonstrated by analyzing a real maritime accident dataset.
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