Analysis of vegetation dynamics from 2001 to 2020 in China's Ganzhou rare earth mining area using time series remote sensing and SHAP-enhanced machine learning

Abstract

Rare earth mining, essential for modern industries and economic growth, often leads to severe environmental degradation. Previous research has explored the ecological impacts of rare earth mining but has not fully investigated the intricate interplay and subdivisions of environmental and anthropogenic factors driving vegetation changes over extended periods. This study addresses this gap by employing time series remote sensing and SHAP-enhanced machine learning to analyze vegetation dynamics in China's Ganzhou rare earth mining area from 2001 to 2020. Using the kNDVI derived from Landsat data, we identified three distinct vegetation trajectory types: pro-environment, des-environment, and res-environment. An ensemble machine learning model combined with SHAP analysis revealed the cropland area proportion, PM10 levels, and shrubland area proportion as the most influential factors affecting vegetation across all mining types. Additionally, after 2012, the palmer drought severity index and downward surface shortwave radiation emerged as positive contributors to vegetation health, while population pressure had a more substantial negative influence in des-environment areas. Our findings highlight spatial heterogeneity in vegetation recovery patterns and highlight the complex interactions among land cover changes, air quality, climate factors, and human activities in shaping vegetation dynamics. This study provides valuable insights for developing targeted, context-specific restoration strategies in rare earth mining areas, contributing to more sustainable mining practices and global environmental management.