Facilitate Range Expansion Research Articles

Local adaptation to climate facilitates a global invasion.

Local adaptation may facilitate range expansion during invasions, but the mechanisms promoting destructive invasions remain unclear. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), native to Eurasia and Africa, has invaded globally, with particularly severe impacts in western North America. We sequenced 307 genotypes and conducted controlled experiments. We found that diverse lineages invaded North America, where long-distance gene flow is common. Ancestry and phenotypic clines in the native range predicted those in the invaded range, indicating pre-adapted genotypes colonized different regions. Common gardens showed directional selection on flowering time that reversed between warm and cold sites, potentially maintaining clines. In the Great Basin, genomic predictions of strong local adaptation identified sites where cheatgrass is most dominant. Preventing new introductions that may fuel adaptation is critical for managing ongoing invasions.

Influence of silvicultural practices in northern hardwood forests on a long-lived perennial herb, Trillium cernuum L.

Contemporary and predicted declines in tree species diversity and forest resilience have prompted renewed interest in even-aged systems and/or site preparation to overcome bottlenecks to tree recruitment or facilitate range expansion of future-adapted species. The impact of this intensification on the herbaceous layer in forests traditionally managed with uneven-aged systems, however, is unclear, especially for uncommon dispersal limited species with heterogenous distributions. We leveraged a large-scale experiment (the Northern Hardwood Silvicultural Experiment to Enhance Diversity) to investigate the response of Trillium cernuum L., a somewhat uncommon and heterogeneously distributed non-clonal herb in our study system, to a gradient of canopy removal and soil disturbance. We monitored 16 small populations from 2015 (the year prior to treatment) to 2019 (3-years post treatment). Our results suggest that initial population size and stage structure were inextricably coupled with T. cernuum response. Independent of treatment, T. cernuum abundance and flowering generally increased over time commensurate with initial population size. Moreover, our study highlights the confounding effect of deer herbivory, which increased significantly following treatment. Collectively, our findings suggest that T. cernuum populations were resilient to canopy disturbance associated with single-tree selection and shelterwood harvests and the levels of scarification applied as part of our study. Higher levels of site impact or other site preparation methods such as herbicides will likely have greater impacts and warrant further investigation. Our results also suggest that directly monitoring populations of interest may be necessary to quantify treatment effects for uncommon and/or heterogenous species that are missed with common plot-based sampling designs or of conservation concern.

Acute cold stress and supercooling capacity of Mediterranean fruit fly populations across the Northern Hemisphere (Middle East and Europe)

The Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Diptera: Tephritidae), holds an impressive record of successful invasion events promoted by globalization in fruit trade and human mobility. In addition, C. capitata is gradually expanding its geographic distribution to cooler temperate areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Cold tolerance of C. capitata seems to be a crucial feature that promotes population establishment and hence invasion success. To elucidate the interplay between the invasion process in the northern hemisphere and cold tolerance of geographically isolated populations of C. capitata, we determined (a) the response to acute cold stress survival of adults, and (b) the supercooling capacity (SCP) of immature stages and adults. To assess the phenotypic plasticity in these populations, the effect of acclimation to low temperatures on acute cold stress survival in adults was also examined. The results revealed that survival after acute cold stress was positively related to low temperature acclimation, except for females originating from Thessaloniki (northern Greece). Adults from the warmer environment of South Arava (Israel) were less tolerant after acute cold stress compared with those from Heraklion (Crete, Greece) and Thessaloniki. Plastic responses to cold acclimation were population specific, with the South Arava population being more plastic compared to the two Greek populations. For SCP, the results revealed that there is little to no correlation between SCP and climate variables of the areas where C. capitata populations originated. SCP was much lower than the lowest temperature individuals are likely to experience in their respective habitats. These results set the stage for asking questions regarding the evolutionary adaptive processes that facilitate range expansions of C. capitata into cooler temperate areas of Europe.

Geomagnetic disturbance associated with increased vagrancy in migratory landbirds

Rare birds known as “accidentals” or “vagrants” have long captivated birdwatchers and puzzled biologists, but the drivers of these rare occurrences remain elusive. Errors in orientation or navigation are considered one potential driver: migratory birds use the Earth’s magnetic field—sensed using specialized magnetoreceptor structures—to traverse long distances over often unfamiliar terrain. Disruption to these magnetoreceptors or to the magnetic field itself could potentially cause errors leading to vagrancy. Using data from 2 million captures of 152 landbird species in North America over 60 years, we demonstrate a strong association between disruption to the Earth’s magnetic field and avian vagrancy during fall migration. Furthermore, we find that increased solar activity—a disruptor of the avian magnetoreceptor—generally counteracts this effect, potentially mitigating misorientation by disabling the ability for birds to use the magnetic field to orient. Our results link a hypothesized cause of misorientation to the phenomenon of avian vagrancy, further demonstrating the importance of magnetoreception among the orientation mechanisms of migratory birds. Geomagnetic disturbance may have important downstream ecological consequences, as vagrants may experience increased mortality rates or facilitate range expansions of avian populations and the organisms they disperse.

Nonsymbiotic legumes are more invasive, but only if polyploid.

Both mutualism and polyploidy are thought to influence invasion success in plants, but few studies have tested their joint effects. Mutualism can limit range expansion when plants cannot find a compatible partner in a novel habitat, or facilitate range expansion when mutualism increases a plant's niche breadth. Polyploids are also expected to have greater niche breadth because of greater self-compatibility and phenotypic plasticity, increasing invasion success. For 847 legume species, we compiled data from published sources to estimate ploidy, symbiotic status with rhizobia, specificity on rhizobia, and the number of introduced ranges. We found that diploid species have had limited spread around the globe regardless of whether they are symbiotic or how many rhizobia partners they can host. Polyploids, by contrast, have been successfully introduced to many new ranges, but interactions with rhizobia constrain their range expansion. In a hidden state model of trait evolution, we also found evidence of a high rate of re-diploidization in symbiotic legume lineages, suggesting that symbiosis and ploidy may interact at macroevolutionary scales. Overall, our results suggest that symbiosis with rhizobia limits range expansion when legumes are polyploid but not diploid.

Uniparentality: advantages for range expansion in diploid and diploid-autopolyploid species

AbstractUniparental reproduction, the capacity of an individual to produce offspring autonomously, is expected to facilitate range expansion of populations. Paspalum spp. reproduce uniparentally by sexual (self-fertility) and asexual (apomixis) reproduction and biparentally by sexual (self-sterility) reproduction. We evaluated the relationship between contrasting reproductive strategies (uni- and biparentality) and their impact on the colonizing ability and geographical range sizes of populations. We determined the cytotype composition of 16 populations of P. indecorum, P. cromyorhizon, P. pumilum and P. maculosum and assessed the sexual (self-fertile and self-sterile) and apomictic proportions by cyto-embryological analyses, fertility rates and seed flow cytometry. Data obtained regarding reproductive modes were compared to the distribution range of each cytotype and species. Sexual diploids with moderate degrees of self-fertility and mixed pollination syndromes showed wider distribution ranges than self-sterile diploids. In sexual diploids, increased rates of self-fertility relate to larger distribution areas. In agamic complexes, self-fertility reduces the differences in range sizes between biparental diploids and uniparental tetraploids. In such complexes, the range size of diploid cytotypes explains the range size and dispersal of apomictic tetraploids. Thus, uniparental reproduction via self-fertility and apomixis describes patterns of geographical parthenogenesis in South American species.

Evidence for continent-wide convergent evolution and stasis throughout 150 y of a biological invasion

The extent to which evolution can rescue a species from extinction, or facilitate range expansion, depends critically on the rate, duration, and geographical extent of the evolutionary response to natural selection. Adaptive evolution can occur quickly, but the duration and geographical extent of contemporary evolution in natural systems remain poorly studied. This is particularly true for species with large geographical ranges and for timescales that lie between “long-term” field experiments and the fossil record. Here, we introduce the Virtual Common Garden (VCG) to investigate phenotypic evolution in natural history collections while controlling for phenotypic plasticity in response to local growing conditions. Reconstructing 150 y of evolution in Lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife) as it invaded North America, we analyze phenology measurements of 3,429 herbarium records, reconstruct growing conditions from more than 12 million local temperature records, and validate predictions across three common gardens spanning 10° of latitude. We find that phenological clines have evolved repeatedly throughout the range, during the first century of evolution. Thereafter, the rate of microevolution stalls, recapitulating macroevolutionary stasis observed in the fossil record. Our study demonstrates that preserved specimens are a critical resource for investigating limits to evolution in natural populations. Our results show how natural selection and trade-offs measured in field studies predict adaptive divergence observable in herbarium specimens over 15 decades at a continental scale.

Temporal variation may have diverse impacts on range limits.

Environmental fluctuations are pervasive in nature, but the influence of non-directional temporal variation on range limits has received scant attention. We synthesize insights from the literature and use simple models to make conceptual points about the potentially wide range of ecological and evolutionary effects of temporal variation on range limits. Because organisms respond nonlinearly to environmental conditions, temporal variation can directionally alter long-term growth rates, either to shrink or to expand ranges. We illustrate this diversity of outcomes with a model of competition along a mortality gradient. Temporal variation can permit transitions between alternative states, potentially facilitating range expansion. We show this for variation in dispersal, using simple source–sink population models (with strong Allee effects, or with gene flow hampering local adaptation). Temporal variation enhances extinction risk owing to demographic stochasticity, rare events, and loss of genetic variation, all tending to shrink ranges. However, specific adaptations to exploit variation (including dispersal) may permit larger ranges than in similar but constant environments. Grappling with temporal variation is essential both to understand eco-evolutionary dynamics at range limits and to guide conservation and management strategies.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

Anti-Herbivore Resistance Changes in Tomato with Elevation.

Local adaptations of host plants to climatic conditions along an elevation gradient can affect insect-plant interactions. Using local accessions sampled from different elevations within South America, plant defense responses and herbivore growth were evaluated on two host plants: a) cherry tomato, Solanum lycopersicum var. cerasiforme, and b) wild tomato, Solanum pimpinellifolium. The elevational origin of the accessions ranged from 100 to 3000m above sea level. We hypothesized a higher level of defensive compounds in plants originating from lower elevations and, consequently, stronger resistance to insect herbivory. Interestingly, plant resistance to insect herbivory, as demonstrated by a reduction in Helicoverpa zea growth, was stronger for middle and high-elevation accessions. Total phenolic content increased with elevation in both herbivore-damaged and undamaged leaves, augmenting plant resistance. However, an elevational gradient was not evident for plant defensive proteins (polyphenol oxidase and trypsin protease inhibitors) or the density of leaf trichomes. Tradeoffs between constitutive and induced defenses were evident in both tomato genotypes. Future studies should test the role of plasticity in plant defense systems in restricting or facilitating range expansion of insect herbivores with climate change.

The role of phenotypic plasticity in the establishment of range margins.

It has been argued that adaptive phenotypic plasticity may facilitate range expansions over spatially and temporally variable environments. However, plasticity may induce fitness costs. This may hinder the evolution of plasticity. Earlier modelling studies examined the role of plasticity during range expansions of populations with fixed genetic variance. However, genetic variance evolves in natural populations. This may critically alter model outcomes. We ask: how does the capacity for plasticity in populations with evolving genetic variance alter range margins that populations without the capacity for plasticity are expected to attain? We answered this question using computer simulations and analytical approximations. We found a critical plasticity cost above which the capacity for plasticity has no impact on the expected range of the population. Below the critical cost, by contrast, plasticity facilitates range expansion, extending the range in comparison to that expected for populations without plasticity. We further found that populations may evolve plasticity to buffer temporal environmental fluctuations, but only when the plasticity cost is below the critical cost. Thus, the cost of plasticity is a key factor involved in range expansions of populations with the potential to express plastic response in the adaptive trait.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)’.

Cumulative effects of human footprint, natural features and predation risk best predict seasonal resource selection by white-tailed deer

Land modified for human use alters matrix shape and composition and is a leading contributor to global biodiversity loss. It can also play a key role in facilitating range expansion and ecosystem invasion by anthrophilic species, as it can alter food abundance and distribution while also influencing predation risk; the relative roles of these processes are key to habitat selection theory. We researched these relative influences by examining human footprint, natural habitat, and predator occurrence on seasonal habitat selection by range-expanding boreal white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the oil sands of western Canada. We hypothesized that polygonal industrial features (e.g. cutblocks, well sites) drive deer distributions as sources of early seral forage, while linear features (e.g. roads, trails, and seismic lines) and habitat associated with predators are avoided by deer. We developed seasonal 2nd -order resource selection models from three years of deer GPS-telemetry data, a camera-trap-based model of predator occurrence, and landscape spatial data to weigh evidence for six competing hypotheses. Deer habitat selection was best explained by the combination of polygonal and linear features, intact deciduous forest, and wolf (Canis lupus) occurrence. Deer strongly selected for linear features such as roads and trails, despite a potential increased risk of wolf encounters. Linear features may attract deer by providing high density forage opportunity in heavily exploited landscapes, facilitating expansion into the boreal north.

Dynamics and predicted distribution of an irrupting ‘sleeper’ population: fallow deer in Tasmania

Sleeper populations of non-native species can remain at low abundance for decades before irrupting. For over a century, fallow deer (Dama dama) in the island state of Tasmania, Australia, remained at low abundance and close to the region in which they were released. Recently, there are indications the population has increased in abundance and distribution. Here, we spatially quantify the population change using a time series of annual spotlight counts from 1985 to 2019 (up to 172 transects annually, totalling of 5756 transect counts). Next, we predict the potential for further range expansion, using global occurrences to characterise the species’ climatic niche, and remote-camera surveys (3225 camera sites) to model fine-grained habitat suitability. Spotlight counts of fallow deer increased by 11.5% annually, resulting in a 40-fold increase from 1985 to 2019. The core distribution increased 2.9-fold during this 35-year period, and now spans c. 27% of Tasmania’s land area. Satellite populations have established in locations where farmed deer have escaped or been released, suggesting that humans have facilitated range expansion via new introduction events. Based on climate and habitat suitability, our models predict that 56% of Tasmania is suitable under the current climate. This suggests range expansion is likely to continue unless the population is actively managed, which could include the eradication of satellite populations and containment of core populations. This case study cautions that despite over a century of slow population growth, sleeper populations of non-native species can abruptly increase.

Predicting Source Populations of Vagrants Using Breeding Population Data: A Case Study of the Lesser Black-Backed Gull (Larus fuscus)

Vagrancy is critical in facilitating range expansion and colonization through exploration and occupation of potentially suitable habitat. Uncovering origins of vagrants will help us better understand not only species-specific vagrant movements, but how the dynamics of a naturally growing population influence vagrancy, and potentially lead to range expansion. Under the premise that occurrence of vagrants is linked to increasing population growth in the core of the breeding range, we assessed the utility of breeding population survey data to predict source populations of vagrants. Lesser Black-backed Gulls (LBBG) (Larus fuscus) served as our focal species due to their dramatic and well-documented history of vagrancy to North America in the last 30 years. We related annual occurrence of vagrants to indices of breeding population size and growth rate of breeding populations. We propose that the fastest growing population is the most likely source of recent vagrants to North America. Our study shows that it is possible to predict potential source populations of vagrants with breeding population data, but breeding surveys require increased standardization across years to improve models. For the Lesser Black-backed Gull, Iceland’s breeding population likely influenced vagrancy during the early years of colonization, but the major increase in vagrants occurred during a period of growth of Greenland’s population, suggesting that Greenland is the source population of the most recent pulse of vagrant LBBG to North America.

Effects of a novel ectoparasite on condition and mouth coloration of nestling barn swallows

Abstract Parasites have profound and widespread implications for the ecology and evolution of hosts, and human activity has increased the frequency of interactions between hosts and parasites that have not co-evolved. For example, by building habitat attractive for nesting, humans might have facilitated range expansion by cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonata) and barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) in North America, concurrently allowing a haematophagous ectoparasite of cliff swallows, the swallow bug (Oeciacus vicarious), to infest the nests of barn swallows. We found that in barn swallow nests infested with swallow bugs, nestlings weighed less and had lower haematocrit, and the within-brood variation in body mass and tarsus length was higher. Information about these negative effects might be available to parents via mouth coloration, a condition-dependent component of the begging signal. We found that nestlings from infested broods had lower-intensity carotenoid-based and ultraviolet mouth colours, although most elements of colour were unrelated to parasites. Host switching by the swallow bug offers excellent opportunities to understand the direct and indirect effects of a novel parasite and might also afford insights into how parasites cope with selective pressures exerted by closely related hosts with key ecological differences.

Fire disturbance promotes biodiversity of plants, lichens and birds in the Siberian subarctic tundra.

Fire shapes the world's terrestrial ecosystems and has been influencing biodiversity patterns for millennia. Anthropogenic drivers alter fire regimes. Wildfires can amplify changes in the structure, biodiversity and functioning of the fast-warming tundra ecosystem. However, there is little evidence available, how these fires affect species diversity and community composition of tundra ecosystems over the long term. We studied long-term fire effects on community composition and diversity at different trophic levels of the food web in the subarctic tundra of Western Siberia. In a space-for-time approach we compared three large fire scars (>44, 28 and 12years old) to unburnt controls. We found that diversity (measured as species richness, Shannon index and evenness) of vascular and non-vascular plants and birds was strongly affected by fire, with the greatest species richness of plants and birds for the intermediate-age fire scar (28years). Species composition of plants and birds still differed from that of the control >44years after fire. Increased deciduous shrub cover was related to species richness of all plants in a hump-shaped manner. The proportion of southern (taiga) bird species was highest in the oldest fire scar, which had the highest shrub cover. We conclude that tundra fires have long-term legacies with regard to species diversity and community composition. They may also increase landscape-scale species richness and facilitate range expansions of more southerly distributed species to the subarctic tundra ecosystem.

Kochia (Kochia scoparia) and Wild Oat (Avena fatua) Intraspecific and Interspecific Interference

Kochia (Kochia scoparia) and wild oat (Avena fatua) are highly problematic western Canadian weeds. Wild oat is widely distributed and has been a long-standing agricultural pest across Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. Kochia populations are patchy and occur more frequently within the southern regions of the Prairie provinces. Kochia is exhibiting an ever-evolving, aggressive, herbicide resistance survival strategy which may facilitate range expansion. The experimental objective was to study the interspecific and intraspecific interference between wild oat and kochia. The study was developed with the context of kochia tumbleweeds travelling and depositing seed within wild oat infestations. Greenhouse experiments were conducted in Saskatoon, SK. The experimental design was a two factor factorial arranged as a randomized complete block. The main factors were kochia and wild oat pot density at either 0, 1, or 2 plants per pot. Treatment combinations resulted in species ratios of 1:1, 2:1, 1:2, and 2:2, with single species controls. Kochia biomass was reduced by >70% after 3 months of competition with a single wild oat plant. Wild oat biomass was consistently impacted by intraspecific competition, demonstrating a 25 to 50% reduction at the trial end. Kochia interspecific interference with wild oat at a 2:1 ratio did reduce wild oat biomass by 50% but this trend was not consistent across experimental runs. Kochia dispersal through wild oat infestations should induce competitive stress when crop competition is considered. Three-species interference patterns to include western Canadian crops require additional study.

Spatial structure of reproductive success infers mechanisms of ungulate invasion in Nearctic boreal landscapes.

Landscape change is a key driver of biodiversity declines due to habitat loss and fragmentation, but spatially shifting resources can also facilitate range expansion and invasion. Invasive populations are reproductively successful, and landscape change may buoy this success.We show how modeling the spatial structure of reproductive success can elucidate the mechanisms of range shifts and sustained invasions for mammalian species with attendant young. We use an example of white‐tailed deer (deer; Odocoileus virginianus) expansion in the Nearctic boreal forest, a North American phenomenon implicated in severe declines of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus).We hypothesized that deer reproductive success is linked to forage subsidies provided by extensive landscape change via resource extraction. We measured deer occurrence using data from 62 camera traps in northern Alberta, Canada, over three years. We weighed support for multiple competing hypotheses about deer reproductive success using multistate occupancy models and generalized linear models in an AIC‐based model selection framework.Spatial patterns of reproductive success were best explained by features associated with petroleum exploration and extraction, which offer early‐seral vegetation resource subsidies. Effect sizes of anthropogenic features eclipsed natural heterogeneity by two orders of magnitude. We conclude that anthropogenic early‐seral forage subsidies support high springtime reproductive success, mitigating or exceeding winter losses, maintaining populations. Synthesis and Applications. Modeling spatial structuring in reproductive success can become a key goal of remote camera‐based global networks, yielding ecological insights into mechanisms of invasion and range shifts to inform effective decision‐making for global biodiversity conservation.

Prioritising conservation actions for biodiversity: Lessening the impact from habitat fragmentation and climate change

The interacting impacts of habitat fragmentation and climate change present a substantial threat for biodiversity, constituting a ‘deadly anthropogenic cocktail’. A range of conservation actions has been proposed to allow biodiversity to respond to those environmental changes. However, determining the relative effectiveness of these actions has been hampered by incomplete evidence. Empirical studies have provided important insights to inform conservation, but the challenge of considering multiple actions at large spatial and temporal scales is considerable. We adopt an individual-based modelling approach to qualitatively assess the effectiveness of alternative conservation actions in facilitating range expansion and patch occupancy for eight virtual species. We test actions to: (i) improve the quality of existing habitat patches, (ii) increase the permeability of the surrounding matrix, (iii) restore degraded habitat, (iv) create new habitat patches to form stepping-stones or (v) create new habitat to enlarge existing habitat patches. These actions are systematically applied to six real landscapes of the UK, which differ in their degree of habitat fragmentation and availability. Creating new habitat close to existing patches typically provides the strongest benefits for both range expansion and patch occupancy across species and landscapes. However, some landscapes may be so degraded that even under unrealistically high levels of management action, species' performances cannot be rescued. We identify that it is possible to develop a triage of conservation actions at the landscape, species and investment level, thereby providing timely evidence to inform action on the ground to lessen the hangover from the deadly anthropogenic cocktail.

The Origin and Spread of Locally Adaptive Seasonal Camouflage in Snowshoe Hares.

AbstractAdaptation is central to population persistence in the face of environmental change, yet we seldom precisely understand the origin and spread of adaptive variation in natural populations. Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) along the Pacific Northwest coast have evolved brown winter camouflage through positive selection on recessive variation at the Agouti pigmentation gene introgressed from black-tailed jackrabbits (Lepus californicus). Here, we combine new and published whole-genome and exome sequences with targeted genotyping of Agouti to investigate the evolutionary history of local seasonal camouflage adaptation in the Pacific Northwest. We find evidence of significantly elevated inbreeding and mutational load in coastal winter-brown hares, consistent with a recent range expansion into temperate coastal environments that incurred indirect fitness costs. The genome-wide distribution of introgression tract lengths supports a pulse of hybridization near the end of the last glacial maximum, which may have facilitated range expansion via introgression of winter-brown camouflage variation. However, signatures of a selective sweep at Agouti indicate a much more recent spread of winter-brown camouflage. Through simulations, we show that the delay between the hybrid origin and subsequent selective sweep of the recessive winter-brown allele can be largely attributed to the limits of natural selection imposed by simple allelic dominance. We argue that while hybridization during periods of environmental change may provide a critical reservoir of adaptive variation at range edges, the probability and pace of local adaptation will strongly depend on population demography and the genetic architecture of introgressed variation.

Predicted distributions of avian specialists: A framework for conservation of endangered forests under future climates

AbstractAimForested regions are of global importance for a multitude of ecosystem functions and services and are critical for biodiversity. Anthropogenic climate‐change compounds negative effects of land‐use change on forest persistence and forest‐dependent biodiversity. Habitat loss and climate change have an additive effect and drive species’ extinctions in similar ways, resulting in a homogenization of biodiversity. Connectivity is key in conservation planning for mitigating climate change effects and facilitating species’ abilities to disperse throughout remnant habitat and track their climate niches. We used three forest‐specialized and habitat‐specific bird species as focal species to understand avian connectivity and conservation of each of South Africa's three threatened forest classes, as each species is range‐restricted to its respective forest type.LocationSouth Africa.MethodsWe created ensemble models of species’ distributions and combined core home‐ and breeding‐range patches with a hybrid of least‐cost pathways and ecological circuit theory linkages to assess the success of corridors in facilitating connectivity of each of the three forest types. We then predicted the likelihood of niche persistence for each species under future climate‐change scenarios, and the efficacy of our connectivity modelling to facilitate range expansion or climate‐niche tracking.ResultsThe projected habitat loss under climate‐change scenarios impacted core‐habitat patch distribution, size and connectivity, exacerbated habitat fragmentation and increased resistance and the severity of pinch points and barriers along dispersal corridors. Forest systems and associated focal species projected to experience the highest levels of habitat loss/contraction occurred at mid‐ to high elevations. Climate‐change resilience across ecosystems, and persistence of species therein, was dependent on connectivity, facilitating species’ ability to track specific climate niches.Main conclusionsClimate‐change resilience of ecosystems, and persistence of biodiversity therein, is most likely to be a product of high functional biodiversity, connectedness and the ability of species to track specific climate niches.