Extreme Winter Research Articles

Taxonomy of the <i>Typhula ishikariensis</i> complex in Russia

The purpose of this publication is to show the history of the taxonomy of the Typhula ishikariensis complex and to provide more detailed geographical descriptions of those fungi in Russia. Three features on the description of this complex species are noted: morphological, crossing and molecular. Often, species described on different host plants have been recognized as synonyms of another previously described species, for example, T. humulina isolated from hop rhizomes and T. graminearum from first year seedlings of Pinus sylvestris and grass weeds have been synonymized with Typhula idahoensis. The latest work by Hoshino et al. distinguished four taxa (three species) based on dendrograms obtained by ITS and ribosomal DNA sequencing, crossing results, morphological and physiological characters: T. ishikariensis var. ishikariensis, T. ishikariensis var. idahoensis, T. hyperborea, and T. canadensis. T. ishikariensis var. idahoensis was found only in North America, and the last two species (T. hyperborea and T. canadensis) mainly in areas with extreme winter conditions. In Russia, Typhula ishikariensis var. ishikariensis, was recorded in the European part of Russia beyond the Arctic Circle: Apatity (Kola Peninsula), in places with a temperate climate: Moscow, St. Petersburg, the republics of Chuvashia and Mari El; and in Asia with a more severe climate: Sverdlovsk Region, Novosibirsk, Irkutsk Region (Hamar-Daban) and Sakhalin. T. canadensis and, presumably, the oldest T. hyperborea, inhabit mainly in areas with unstable and severe winter climates. T canadensis in Russia was noted by us in Asia in the Baikal region in the Ice Age refugium Khamar-Daban, Kamchatka and Sakhalin, and T. hyperborea in Asia in the Sverdlovsk region, Novosibirsk, Kamchatka and Chukotka (Anadyr), along with the European regions of Russia with a temperate climate in the Volga republics of Mari El and Tatarstan. These areas are characterized frequent autumn frosts, which promoted competition with another snow mold pathogen, the necrotroph Sclerotinia borealis. Underground damage of plant tissues, such as tulip bulb bases and roots, and hop rhizomes by T. ishikariensis var. ishikariensis occurred only in Russia. Perhaps the diversity in winter climate evolved and preserved diverse taxa, including ancestral forms. Obviously, such climatic fluctuations evolved organisms capable of survival under unstable stressful conditions, especially when climatic conditions change.

Analyzing urban influence on extreme winter precipitation through observations and numerical simulation of two South China case studies

This study investigates the impact of urbanization on extreme winter rainfall in the South China Greater Bay Area (GBA) through the analysis of hourly station observations and simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (WRF-SLUCM). Data from 2008 to 2017 reveal that urban areas in the GBA experience lower 99th percentile hourly winter rainfall intensity compared to surrounding rural regions. However, urban locations exhibit higher annual maximum hourly rainfall (Rmax) and very extreme rainfall events (99.99th percentile) in winter, suggesting a positive influence of urbanization on extreme winter precipitation. A case study further underscores the role of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in enhancing extreme rainfall intensity and probability in the GBA urban areas. Additionally, two extreme cases were dynamically downscaled using WRF-SLUCM, involving four parallel experiments: replacing urban land use with cropland (Nourban), using historical urban land use data from 1999 (99LS), projecting near-future urban land use for 2030 (30LS), and considering 2030 urban land use without anthropogenic heat (AH) (30LS-AH0). Synoptic analysis demonstrates that cold air intrusion suppresses the GBA UHI in Case 2013 but not in Case 2015. Reduced evaporation and humidity induced by urban surfaces significantly decrease urban precipitation in Case 2013. In contrast, the persistent UHI in Case 2015 enhances local convection and land–ocean circulation, leading to increased moisture flux convergence and amplified urban precipitation intensity and probability in 30LS compared to Nourban. This amplification is primarily attributed to AH, while the change in 99LS remains insignificant. These findings suggest that urban influences on extreme precipitation in the GBA persist during winter, particularly when the UHI effect is maintained.

Delayed Recovery of the Irminger Interior From Cooling in 2015 Due To Widespread Buoyancy Loss and Suppressed Restratification

AbstractWatermass transformation in the Irminger Sea, a key region for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is influenced by atmospheric and oceanic variability. Strong wintertime atmospheric forcing in 2015 resulted in enhanced convection and the densification of the Irminger Sea. Deep convection persisted until 2018, even though winters following 2015 were mild. We show that this behavior can be attributed to an initially slow convergence of buoyancy, followed by more rapid convergence of buoyancy. This two‐stage recovery, in turn, is consistent with restratification driven by baroclinic instability of the Irminger Current (IC), that flows around the basin. The initial, slow restratification resulted from the weak horizontal density gradients created by the widespread 2015 atmospheric heat loss. Faster restratification occurred once the IC recovered. This mechanism explains the delayed recovery of the Irminger Sea following a single extreme winter and has implications for the ventilation and overturning that occurs in the basin.

A theoretical study on third generation photovoltaic technology: dye-sensitized solar cells

A numerical model has been developed to investigate the performance of dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) under extreme weather conditions. The main purpose of this work is to simulate the temperature influence on the overall efficiency of DSSCs with a consideration of the voltage loss at titanium dioxide (TiO2 )/ transparent conductive oxide (TCO) interface. Appropriate simulation input parameters are chosen to reflect the extreme winter weather conditions of Fargo, North Dakota. It is found that at the temperature 250 K (ca. -20 °C), the maximum power output is about 23 W/m2 which is about 50% lower than the value at 340 K (ca. 70 °C). The study reveals that low temperature conditions have serious detrimental effects on the DSSCs’ performance.

Nitrogen immobilization could link extreme winter warming events to Arctic browning

Arctic extreme winter warming events (WW events) have increased in frequency with climate change. WW events have been linked to damaged tundra vegetation (“Arctic browning”), but the mechanisms that link episodic winter thaw to plant damage in summer are not fully understood. We suggest that one mechanism is microbial N immobilization during the WW event, which leads to a smaller release of winter-mineralized N in spring and therefore more N limitation for vegetation in summer.We tested this hypothesis in a Western Greenlandic Low arctic tundra, where we experimentally simulated a 6 day field-scale extreme WW event and 1) used stable isotopes to trace the movement of N as a consequence of the WW event, 2) measured the effect of a WW event on spring N release in top soils in the laboratory, and 3) measured the carry-over effect on summer aboveground vegetation C/N ratio in tundra subject to a WW event.Our results show that soil mineral N released by a WW event followed by soil thaw is taken up by microbes and stored in the soil, whereas vascular plants acquired almost none, and significant amounts were lost to leaching and gaseous emissions. As soils thawed in spring, we saw weak but not significant evidence (P = 0.067) for a larger N release over the first month of spring thaw in Control soils compared to WW event soils, although not significantly. A weak signal (P = 0.07) linked WW event treatment to higher summer C/N ratios in evergreen shrubs, whereas deciduous shrubs were not affected.We conclude that our results did not show significant evidence for WW events causing Arctic browning via N immobilization and summer N limitation, but that we had indications (P < 0.1) which merits further testing of the theory in various tundra types and with repeated WW events. Evergreen shrubs could be especially sensitive to winter N immobilization, with implications for future vegetation community composition and tundra C storage.

13C dicarboxylic acid signatures indicate temporal shifts in catchment sediment sources in response to extreme winter rainfall

Rainfall and land-use interactions drive temporal shifts in suspended sediment sources, yet the magnitude of such changes remains poorly understood due to the lack of land-use specific source tracers. We investigated α,ω-dicarboxylic fatty acid root-specific biomarkers, as diagnostic tracers for apportioning sources of time-integrated suspended sediment samples collected from a grassland dominated agricultural catchment in the southwest of England during the wet winter period. Applying fatty acids-specific stable carbon isotope analysis and a Bayesian isotope mixing model, we show that stream banks contributed most of the sediment in the early winter, i.e. October–December, while winter cereal-dominated arable land contributed more than half of the sediment during the late winter, i.e. January–March. The dominant sediment source shifted in conjunction with a period of prolonged consecutive rainfall days in the later period suggesting that intervention required to mitigate soil erosion and sediment delivery should adapt to changing rainfall patterns. Our novel findings demonstrate that isotopic signatures of α,ω-dicarboxylic fatty acids are promising tracers for understanding the resistance of agricultural soils to water erosion and quantifying the interactive effects of extreme rainfall and land use on catchment sediment source dynamics.

Migration patterns and breeding areas of Green Sandpipers Tringa ochropus wintering in southern Britain

ABSTRACT Capsule: Green Sandpipers Tringa ochropus wintering in southern Britain breed in western Scandinavia, from southern Norway to Finland. They leave Britain in late April and return by the end of June/early July. Aims: To determine the breeding areas of Green Sandpipers that spend their winter in southern Britain and to investigate their migration ecology. Methods: Green Sandpipers were fitted with archival tags (light level and GPS) whilst in their wintering area. Location data were collected during their northward migration to the breeding area, the breeding period and their return to southern England. Results: Birds departed from the wintering area in late April (median April 20) and moved rapidly to the breeding areas (median duration two days), a mean distance of 1463 km. Females stayed in the breeding areas for only 42 days and males 60 days. The return migration back to the wintering area took a median of 11.5 days with the first birds back by June 19 and the last by July 6. Conclusions: By spending the winter so far north and close to the breeding areas the birds are balancing the risks of poor survival in extreme cold winters with the benefits of rapid and relatively easy movement to and from their breeding areas.

Multiomics analyses reveal the mechanisms of the responses of subalpine treeline trees to phenology and winter low-temperature stress.

Withstanding extreme cold stress is a prerequisite for alpine treeline trees to persist and survive. However, the underlying mechanism by which treeline trees sense phenological changes and survive hard winters has not been fully elucidated. Here, we investigated the physiology, transcriptome, and metabolome of the subalpine treeline species Larix chinensis to identify the molecular mechanism of phenological and cold resistance. Calcium and antioxidant enzyme activities (e.g., superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase) are essential for coping with winter cold stress in L. chinensis. Transcriptome analysis revealed that circadian rhythm and phytohormone signalling transduction played important roles in regulating L. chinensis phenological changes and cold stress responses. The variations in the transcriptome identified were accompanied by the specific accumulation of flavones, flavonols, and monosaccharides. The flavonoid biosynthesis and phenylpropanoid biosynthesis pathways played important roles in the adaptation of L. chinensis to the extreme winter environment, and flavone and flavonol biosynthesis was an important pathway involved in bud burst. In addition, temperature and photoperiod had synergistic influences on the formation and release of bud dormancy. Thus, our findings provided new insights into the mechanism of subalpine treeline formation.

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Winter Extreme Pollution Events in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and the Effects of Quasi-Circumglobal Teleconnection Anomalous Circulation

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of Winter Extreme Pollution Events in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region and the Effects of Quasi-Circumglobal Teleconnection Anomalous Circulation

An Extreme Marine Heatwave Event in the Yellow Sea during Winter 2019/20: Causes and Consequences

Increasing evidence has shown that marine heatwaves (MHWs) have destructive impacts on marine ecosystems, and understanding the causes of these events is beneficial for mitigating the associated adverse effects on the provision of ecosystem services. During the 2019/20 boreal winter, a long-lasting extreme MHW event was recorded (over 90 days) in the Yellow Sea (YS). Observations and numerical experiments revealed that the unprecedented winter MHW event was initiated and sustained by a significant decrease in ocean heat loss in the YS, which may be associated with the pronounced weakening of the Siberian high system induced by an extreme positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) event. A weakened northerly wind is the essential prerequisite, while the extreme AO event is only a trigger for the winter MHW in the YS. It was also found that the extreme winter MHW event is likely to substantially affect the seasonal evolution of the vertical thermal structure, which may have a great impact on the whole ecosystem in the YS. This study provides new insights for the prediction of winter MHWs in the YS, as well as their effects on marine ecosystems in a changing climate.

Jet Configurations Leading to Extreme Winter Temperatures Over Europe

AbstractThe North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet (EDJ) is the main driver of winter weather in Europe and has often been described by its latitude or strength. Here, we show that the influence of the EDJ on European winter temperature extremes can be better characterized by a multiparametric perspective that accounts for additional aspects of the EDJ structure (tilt, zonal elongation, etc.). We identify four regions where extreme temperatures are distinctly associated with the EDJ: Scandinavia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Western Mediterranean (WMED). Overall, the anomalous horizontal advection induced by blockings during cold spells and enhanced westerlies during warm events is the main mechanism leading to extreme event occurrence. However, diabatic processes play an important role in WMED region. Both processes generate asymmetric effects in minimum and maximum temperatures contributing to higher intensities of cold than warm events. These extreme events are associated with different EDJ configurations, which typically involve perturbed EDJs during cold spells and strong tilted EDJs during warm events, but with important variations depending on the region. In almost every region, the combined effects of more than two EDJ parameters yield significant increases in the probability of cold and warm events, suggesting an oversimplification of traditional approaches based on a single EDJ parameter. We show, using logistic regression models, that, although important, latitude and intensity are often unable to discriminate unequivocally the region of extreme event occurrence, and in some regions, they do not drive the largest changes in the odds of extremes.

Comparative Analysis of Thermal Behavior in Different Seasons in Building Heritage: Case Study of the Royal Hospital of Granada

The present investigation carries out a thermal evaluation of two rooms located in the Royal Hospital of Granada (Rector’s Office). This is a heritage building where have been done studies that allow the as-sessment of possible improvements in future interventions that guarantee improvement in en-ergy and regulatory compliance are decisive. This article presents for the first time, through energy simulation, the behavior of two rooms in two temporal periods, thermally extreme (summer and winter) and with opposite orientations. This has allowed the potential benefits to be considered in real climate conditions. The results demonstrate and quantify that considering the location, orientation, arrangement of openings, and inclusion of transition zones between the exterior and the interior, an improvement in thermal comfort is obtained. The southwesterly orientation is favorable in the winter period and the northeasterly orientation in the summer period. It is also confirmed that the arrangement of thick masonry walls responds adequately in climates with high thermal amplitudes, favoring the mitigation of extreme conditions. It is concluded by stating that the orientation and the construction components are the main responsible factors for the thermal capacity in this type of building. In this context, the use of non-destructive study methods offers valuable scientific support through the results obtained.

Freezing tolerance and tolerance to de-acclimation of European accessions of winter and facultative barley

Due to global warming, winter hardiness may seem to become less important for plant survival and yield. However, this is a superficial assumption, as probably only the most important factors locally affecting plant overwintering will change. For example, the frequency, degree, and length of extreme winter warming events may increase, leading to de-acclimation of plants. This study aimed to investigate existing variability in de-acclimation tolerance in Polish winter barley breeding materials and European winter and facultative barley cultivars, and to identify accessions with the highest and the lowest tolerance to de-acclimation by means of visual estimation of regrowth after freezing, measurements of electrolyte leakage and chlorophyll fluorescence, and LT50 assessment. The results of this study showed that freezing tolerance and tolerance to de-acclimation are independent traits, and even highly freezing tolerant plants can be susceptible to de-acclimation. Our results highlight the role of photosynthetic apparatus in de-acclimation, proving that chlorophyll fluorescence parameters, especially ET0/CS, can be useful indicators of tolerance to de-acclimation. This study also confirmed that although the mechanisms of response to de-acclimation seem to be common for susceptible barley accessions, the mechanisms of tolerance are different, and may be related to the accession’s origin.

Ability of the GRAPES Ensemble Forecast Product to Forecast Extreme Temperatures over the Tibetan Plateau

Due to climate change, extreme temperature events are receiving increased attention. Based on the climate state deviation and threat score (TS), the ability of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) ensemble model to forecast extreme temperature events was examined. The “optimal” Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) was derived for plateau forecasting, and its predictability was examined based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve method. Meanwhile, the applicability of the Shift of Tails (SOT) index to extreme temperature forecasting was analyzed using extreme temperature cases. Results showed that the GRAPES model has a warm bias for both summer extreme high temperature and winter extreme low temperature, and the warm bias decreases slightly with an increase in the forecasting lead time. The ensemble mean and median forecasts are less effective, and the maximum value is more predictable. However, for the ensemble forecast model, the extreme information in its forecast is more unstable, and the limitation of the extreme temperature forecast in the plateau region is higher. With different forecast lead times, the TS tends to increase and then decrease with an increase in the EFI threshold, which means that there is an optimal EFI. The optimal EFI thresholds for summer extreme high-temperature forecasts are all less than −0.5, while for winter extreme low-temperature forecasts, they are almost all less than 0. From the ROC curves, the EFI has a certain level of predictability for summer extreme high temperatures but poorer forecasting effects. Furthermore, the EFI has some predictability for extreme summer high temperatures, but the prediction effect is poor. For the extremely low temperatures in winter, which are poorly predicted by the model itself, post-processing of the extreme information predicted by the model with the EFI can improve the forecasting effect of the model. Through analysis of individual cases, it was found that the extreme intensity reflected by the SOT_+ (0.9) index of the model was closer to reality for the prediction of extremely high temperatures, whereas for the prediction of extremely low temperatures, the extreme intensity indicated by the SOT_− (0.1) index of the model was weaker. Therefore, the SOT index can play an important auxiliary role in the prediction of the intensity of extreme events based on the EFI.

PiCAM: A Raspberry Pi‐based open‐source, low‐power camera system for monitoring plant phenology in Arctic environments

Abstract Time‐lapse cameras have been widely used as a tool to monitor the timing of seasonal vegetation growth. These simple, relatively inexpensive systems can provide high‐frequency observations of leaf development and demography which are critical data sets needed to characterize plant phenology from species to landscapes. This is important for understanding how plants are responding to global changes, as well as for validating satellite‐derived phenology products. However, in remote regions including the high‐latitude Arctic, deploying time‐lapse cameras could be challenging. The remoteness and lack of widespread power and telecommunications infrastructure limit options for the installation, maintenance and retrieval of data and equipment, and make it difficult for cameras to survive in extreme weather (e.g. long cold winters). To improve our understanding of Arctic phenology, new technologies are required to address these challenges. Here, we present a novel, low‐power, compact, lightweight time‐lapse camera system, called power‐interval camera automation module (PiCAM). The PiCAM was designed with explicit consideration to simplify deployment (i.e. without a need for external power supplies) of camera systems and to address the challenges of camera survival in harsh Arctic environments. In this paper, we describe the design, setup and technical details of the PiCAM and provide a roadmap for how to build and operate these systems. As proof of concept, we deployed 26 PiCAMs at three low‐Arctic tundra sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in early August 2021 for characterizing Arctic plant phenology. Of the 26 PiCAMs, 70% remained active at the point of our revisit in late July 2022 despite the extreme winter temperatures they experienced (&lt; −30°C, heavy snow cover). We extracted key plant phenology metrics from the PiCAMs and captured strong differences across key Arctic plant species. We showed that the PiCAM has the potential to be widely used for monitoring plant phenology across the broader Arctic region, addressing the need for ground‐based understanding of Arctic phenological diversity to develop knowledge of plant response to climate change and to validate remote sensing products.

Nonbreeding season survival of northern bobwhite in northeastern Colorado

Northern bobwhites have experienced population declines in Colorado and range wide. Estimating vital rates can provide clues to factors limiting population growth rate. Although recent estimates of breeding season survival in the northwest corner of the northern bobwhite range are available, there have been no recent studies on nonbreeding season survival. We used radio‐telemetry to estimate nonbreeding season (October–March) survival of northern bobwhites at two study sites in northeastern Colorado during winter 2019–2020 and 2020–2021. Based on our sample of 157 bobwhites, we found that survival was highly variable between years and was negatively affected by colder daily minimum temperatures and deeper snow depths. Seasonal (six‐month) survival during the first year was 0.219 (SE = 0.040) and during the second year was 0.006 (SE = 0.005). We found no evidence that sex, age or study site influenced survival, and very weak support for an effect of body mass. During our study, there were two extreme winter weather events, during which we found unusually high numbers of non‐predation mortality. Overall, northern bobwhite nonbreeding season survival in the northwest corner of their range appears to be generally similar to other regions, except during extreme winter weather events, which resulted in high mortality. We encourage managers to create or maintain vegetation characteristics that will provide shelter from winter weather while also providing abundant food in close proximity.

Interannual variation of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia pattern modulated by Ural blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation under changing sea ice conditions

Together with rapid Arctic warming and sea ice decline, especially over the Barents–Kara seas (BKS), extreme cold winters have occurred frequently in mid-latitudes, particularly in Central Eurasia. A pattern with two distinct winter temperature anomalies centered over the BKS and Central Eurasia is known as the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. The impacts of sea ice loss over the BKS and internal atmospheric variability on past WACE formation remain under discussion mainly due to the large internal atmospheric variability in the mid-latitudes. This study analyzed a large-ensemble historical experiment prescribing observed sea ice condition to investigate the role of internal atmospheric variability in the observed interannual variation of the WACE pattern. Comparison of ensemble members suggests that internal atmospheric variability is important for regulating the magnitude of the WACE pattern. Besides the strong effect of local sea ice loss, winter temperature over the BKS increases due to warm advection driven by the Ural blocking and positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. A decrease in winter temperature over Central Eurasia is mainly attributable to the cold advection enhanced by Ural blocking rather than the remote effect of sea ice decline over the BKS. Our study reveals the importance of internal atmospheric variability in elucidating the observed interannual variation of the WACE pattern.

Extreme Arctic Weather and Community Impacts in Nunavut: A Case Study of One Winter’s Storms and Lessons for Local Climate Change Preparedness

Abstract Arctic communities are experienced with severe weather, but impacts can still be serious, particularly when the intensity or persistence of hazardous conditions is extreme. Such was the case for the community of Clyde River (Kangiqtugaapik), Nunavut, Canada, which experienced 33 blizzard days during winter 2021/22—likely the most at Clyde River since at least 1978/79. Blizzard conditions resulted from unusually frequent high winds rather than excessive snowfall. The most severe stretch included eight blizzard days over an 11-day period, with top wind gusts of 98 km h−1. Winds caused severe drifting, covering homes and blocking streets. Broken heavy equipment, including snow-clearing machines, compounded the impacts, leaving homes without essential services like water delivery and sewage pump-out for days. Residents reported the storms and resulting impacts as some of the worst in memory. The drifting and volume of snow, combined with the lack of available resources to manage it, obliged the community to declare a state of emergency. Projections of increased Arctic precipitation and extreme weather events points to the need for communities to have proper resources and supports, including preparedness and adaptation and mitigation strategies, so they can be better equipped to handle storm and blizzard impacts such as those experienced at Clyde River in the winter of 2021/22. Additional steps that can be implemented to better support and prepare communities include investing in preparedness planning, expanded and enhanced weather information and services, community land-based programming to transfer Inuit knowledge and skills, assessing the usefulness of current forecasts, and new approaches to community planning. Significance Statement In this study, we consider the winter of 2021/22, during which the community of Clyde River (Kangiqtugaapik), Nunavut experienced 33 days with blizzard conditions—more than any other year since at least 1978/79. Blizzards are characterized by strong winds and blowing snow. Low visibility impedes travel, and drifting snow blocks roads and can bury equipment and buildings. In this case, broken snow-clearing equipment and other infrastructure challenges also hampered the community’s ability to respond, and residents went days without essential services. Several studies suggest that extreme winds will become more common in the Baffin Bay region in the future. This study demonstrates the need for proper resourcing of communities for preparedness, response, and adaptation strategies, especially with the possibility of extreme winter weather becoming more common.

Predictability and Risk of Extreme Winter PM2.5 Concentration in Beijing

Predictability and Risk of Extreme Winter PM2.5 Concentration in Beijing

Shifts in risk sensitivity and resource availability alter fat stores for a large mammal following extreme winter conditions

Abstract For species that inhabit environments where resource availability may be unpredictable, balance of resource allocation to life‐history traits can have heightened consequences for survival, reproduction, and ultimately, fitness. Acquisition and allocation of energy to maintenance, capital gain and reproduction should be in tune with the landscape an animal inhabits—environmental severity, food availability and population size all influence the resources animals have and dictate the ways they should be allocated. In seasonal environments, animals that experience periods of extreme resource limitation (e.g. harsh winters) may favour allocation of resources to body reserves to secure their survival at the cost of reproduction (i.e. risk averse). In contrast, the same accumulation of body reserves may not be necessary to survive in relatively benign landscapes where instead, allocation to reproduction is favoured (i.e. risk prone). According to the theory of risk‐sensitive allocation of resources, when animals are exposed to unprecedented or life‐threatening conditions, they may shift resource allocation to favour building capital over allocation in reproduction to preempt against encountering another life‐threatening event in the future. Using data from a long‐term project on a highly site‐faithful and long‐lived species, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus), we evaluated how a life‐threatening winter and the associated changes in resource availability resulting from a population reduction influenced how animals acquired and allocated energy to survival (i.e. fat accumulation). Per capita precipitation, and the associated reduction in population abundance after the severe winter, had a positive influence of accrual of fat over summer. After the extreme physiological stress of a hard winter, deer starting spring with low body reserves accumulated 2.8 percentage points more fat over summer compared with before the experience of a bad winter and had an increased probability of recruiting fewer offspring. Fat stores can interact with environment, life history and behaviour to influence survival during periods of resource scarcity. For a long‐lived herbivore, we documented shifts in risk tolerance associated with fat accrual in preparation for winter, supporting the notion that risk‐sensitive allocation of resources may be plastic—an essential adaptation for animals to cope with rapidly changing landscapes. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.