Extreme Winter Cold Research Articles

Minimal mortality and rapid recovery of the dominant shrub Larrea tridentata following an extreme cold event in the northern Chihuahuan Desert

AbstractQuestionsWoody encroachment into grasslands is a worldwide phenomenon partially influenced by climate change, including extreme weather events. Larrea tridentata is a common shrub throughout the warm deserts of North America that has encroached into grasslands over the past 150 years. Physiological measurements suggest that the northern distribution of L. tridentata is limited by cold temperatures; thus extreme winter events may slow or reverse shrub expansion. We tested this limitation by measuring the response of individual L. tridentata shrubs to an extreme winter cold (−31°C) event to assess shrub mortality and rate of recovery of surviving shrubs.LocationSevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, Socorro County, New Mexico, USA.MethodsCanopy dieback and recovery following an extreme cold event were measured for 869 permanently marked individual L. tridentata shrubs in grass–shrub ecotone and shrubland sites. Individual shrubs were monitored for amount of canopy dieback, rate of recovery, and seed set for three growing seasons after the freeze event.ResultsShrubs rapidly suffered a nearly complete loss of canopy leaf area across all sites. Although canopy loss was high, mortality was low and 99% of shrubs resprouted during the first growing season after the freeze event. Regrowth rates were similar within ecotone and shrubland sites, even when damage by frost was larger in the latter. After three years of recovery, L. tridentata canopies had regrown on average 23–83% of the original pre‐freeze canopy sizes across the sites.ConclusionsWe conclude that isolated extreme cold events may temporarily decrease shrubland biomass but they do not slow or reverse shrub expansion. These events are less likely to occur in the future as regional temperatures increase under climate change.

Suppression of Cold Weather Events over High-Latitude Continents in Warm Climates

AbstractRecent studies, using Lagrangian single-column atmospheric models, have proposed that in warmer climates more low clouds would form as maritime air masses advect into Northern Hemisphere high-latitude continental interiors during winter (DJF). This increase in low cloud amount and optical thickness could reduce surface radiative cooling and suppress Arctic air formation events, partly explaining both the warm winter high-latitude continental interior climate and frost-intolerant species found there during the Eocene and the positive lapse-rate feedback in future Arctic climate change scenarios. Here the authors examine the robustness of this low-cloud mechanism in a three-dimensional atmospheric model that includes large-scale dynamics. Different warming scenarios are simulated under prescribed CO2 and sea surface temperature, and the sensitivity of winter temperatures and clouds over high-latitude continental interior to mid- and high-latitude sea surface temperatures is examined. Model results show that winter 2-m temperatures on extreme cold days increase about 50% faster than the winter mean temperatures and the prescribed SST. Low cloud fraction and surface longwave cloud radiative forcing also increase in both the winter mean state and on extreme cold days, consistent with previous Lagrangian air-mass studies, but with cloud fraction increasing for different reasons than proposed by previous work. At high latitudes, the cloud longwave warming effect dominates the shortwave cooling effect, and the net cloud radiative forcing at the surface tends to warm high-latitude land but cool midlatitude land. This could contribute to the reduced meridional temperature gradient in warmer climates and help explain the greater warming of winter cold extremes relative to winter mean temperatures.

Winter matters: Sensitivity to winter climate and cold events increases towards the cold distribution margin of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)

AbstractAimThe dominant forest tree in Europe, European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), covers large areas of continental Europe and thus experiences diverse climatic conditions. In the face of predicted climate change and shifts of distribution ranges, it is important to understand the diverse climate–growth relationships towards distribution margins. Beech is generally reported to be sensitive to summer drought towards dry and continental regions; yet, few studies have investigated climate sensitivity towards the cold distribution margin of beech. We hypothesized that at colder sites (a) growth of beech is more sensitive to winter cold, (b) growth is less influenced by summer drought, and (c) stand‐wide growth reductions (negative pointer years) are related to extreme winter cold events.TaxonEuropean beech (Fagus sylvatica L.).LocationA large gradient of decreasing winter temperature (ΔT >4 K along 500 km) from Rostock (Germany) to Gdańsk (Poland).MethodsWe analysed climate–growth relationships and the nature of growth reductions of 11 beech stands from more central to cold marginal beech populations.ResultsTowards the cold marginal populations, growth became increasingly sensitive to winter cold (February temperature) and less sensitive to summer water availability (June precipitation). Likewise, negative pointer years coincided with winter cold anomalies at the colder sites and with summer drought anomalies at the warmer sites. Thus, over the studied gradient, the general sensitivity of beech to summer drought transitions into sensitivity to winter cold.Main conclusionsA range shift of beech across the current cold distribution margin is often assumed to compensate for habitat and productivity losses of drought‐prone southern and central populations. With respect to the winter cold sensitivity found in our study, such assumptions should be taken with caution. Since winter cold events are predicted to persist with similar frequency and magnitude even during predicted climate warming, beech populations in the newly colonized habitat might be significantly sensitive to winter cold.

Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021–2050

Climate change has a significant impact on agrometeorological conditions. We analysed the winter wheat overwintering indices for the northern winter wheat production areas of China (NWPA), which include the percentage of extreme low‐temperature (daily minimum temperature ≤−22 °C) years, the first day of the overwintering period (FDO), sowing date (SD) and precipitation before winter (PBW). Then, we compared the differences of the four indices between the forecast period 2021–2050 and the baseline period 1961–1990 under the RCP4.5 scenario, which were based on the 0.5° × 0.5° grid daily meteorological data output provided by the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. The results showed that the occurrence of extreme cold winters decreases the NWPA, which will result in the northern boundary of winter wheat moving north by 1–2 latitudes and in an increase in the potentially safe overwintering areas by 8.5%. The FDO will be delayed in 2021–2050 by an average of 7.7 days. Climate warming will change the meteorological conditions for winter wheat overwintering in the Huang‐Huai winter wheat area, especially near the southern boundary of the winter wheat planting area, and the areas and years with no obvious overwintering periods will experience an increase by 50% and 56%, respectively. The SD will be postponed by 8.6–9.0 days. The PBW will decrease as the accumulated temperature increases, especially in the Huang‐Huai winter wheat area. In the future, the possible northern boundary for winter wheat planting may move northward, and the northernmost tip may reach 46°N. South of the Huang‐Huai region, winter wheat planting may change from a semi‐winter to a spring variety. These findings will provide a reference for generating wheat planting and management strategies in China.

Prediction Skill for the East Asian Winter Monsoon Based on APCC Multi-Models

The prediction skill for the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) has been analyzed, using the observations and different climate models that participate in the APEC Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast. The authors first examined the characteristics of the existing EAWM indices to find a suitable index for the APCC seasonal forecast system. This examination revealed that the selected index shows reasonable prediction skill of EAWM intensity and well-represents the characteristics of wintertime temperature anomalies associated with the EAWM, especially for the extreme cold winters. Although most models capture the main characteristics of the seasonal mean circulation over East Asia reasonably well, they still suffer from difficulty in predicting the interannual variability (IAV) of the EAWM. Fortunately, the POAMA has reasonable skill in capturing the timing and strength of the EAWM IAV and reproduces the EAWM-related circulation anomalies well. The better performance of the POAMA may be attributed to the better skill in simulating the high-latitude forcing including the Siberian High (SH) and Artic Oscillation (AO) and the strong links of the ENSO to the EAWM, compared to other models.

Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas

Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models have been used in order to evaluate the respective impact of the observed Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) variations on air temperature variations in mid and high latitude land areas. Two sets of experiments have been designed; in the first set (EXP1), observed daily sea ice concentration and SST variations are used as lower boundary forcing over 1982–2014 while in the second set (EXP2) the SST variations are replaced by the daily SST climatology. The observed winter 2 m air temperature (T2m) variations are relatively well reproduced in a number of mid and high latitude land areas in EXP1, with best agreement in southwestern North America and northern Europe. Sea ice variations are important for the interannual T2m variations in northern Europe but have limited impact on all other mid and high latitude land regions. In particular, sea ice variations do not contribute to the observed opposite variations in the Arctic and mid latitude in our model experiments. The spread across ensemble members is large and many ensemble members are required to reproduce the observed T2m variations over northern Europe in our models. The amplitude of T2m anomalies in the coldest observed winters over northern Europe is not reproduced by our multi-model ensemble means. However, the sea ice conditions in these respective winters and mainly the thermodynamic response to the ice anomalies lead to an enhanced likelihood for occurrence of colder than normal winters and extremely cold winters. Still, the main reason for the observed extreme cold winters is internal atmospheric dynamics. The coldest simulated northern European winters in EXP1 and EXP2 between 1982 and 2014 show the same large scale T2m and atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns as the observed coldest winters, indicating that the models are well able to reproduce the processes, which cause these cold anomalies. The results are robust across all six models used in this study.

Temperature extremes in Alaska: temporal variability and circulation background

The aims of this study are to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of extremely warm days (WDs) and warm spells (WSs) in summer as well as extremely cold days (CDs) and cold spells (CSs) in winter in Alaska in the years 1951–2015 and to determine the role of atmospheric circulation in their occurrence. The analysis is performed using daily temperature maxima (TMAX) and minima (TMIN) measured at 10 weather stations in Alaska as well as mean daily values of sea level pressure and wind direction at the 850 hPa isobaric level.WD (CD) is defined as a day with TMAX above the 95th (TMIN below the 5th) percentile of a probability density function calculated from observations, and WS (CS) equals at least three consecutive WDs (CDs). Frequency of the occurrence and severity of warm and cold extremes as well as duration of WSs and CSs is analyzed. In order to characterize synoptic conditions during temperature extremes, the objective classification scheme of advection types considering jointly the direction of the air influx and type of pressure system is employed.The results show that the general trend is towards the warmer temperatures, and the warming is greater in the winter than summer and for TMAX as opposed to TMIN. This is reflected in changes in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of temperature extremes which are much more pronounced in the case of winter cold extremes (decreasing tendencies) than summer warm extremes (increasing tendencies).The occurrence of temperature extremes is generally favored by anticyclonic weather with advection direction indicating air mass flows from the interior of the North American continent as well as the south (warm extremes in summer) and north (cold extremes in winter).

Erratum to: Connecting potential frost damage events identified from meteorological records to radial growth variation in Norway spruce and Scots pine

Conifer radial growth reductions may be related to unusual snow conditions or a mismatch between frost hardiness level and minimum temperature, but not typically to low winter temperature extremes. The aim of this study was to examine if temperature conditions potentially causing frost damage have an effect on radial growth in Norway spruce and Scots pine in Finland. We hypothesized that frost damage occurs and reduces radial growth after (1) extreme cold winter temperatures, (2) frost hardiness levels insufficient to minimum temperatures, and (3) the lack of insulating snow cover during freezing temperatures, resulting in increased frost and decreased temperatures in soil. Meteorological records were used to define variables describing the conditions of each hypothesis and a dynamic frost hardiness model was used to find events of insufficient frost hardiness levels. As frost damage is likely to occur only under exceptional conditions, we used generalized extreme value distributions to describe the frost variables. Our results did not show strong connections between radial growth and the frost damage events. However, significant growth reductions were found at some Norway spruce sites after events insufficient frost hardiness levels, and alternatively, after winters with high frost sum of snowless days. Scots pine did not show significant growth reductions associated with any of the studied variables. Thus, radial growth in Norway spruce may be more sensitive to future changes in winter conditions. Our results demonstrate that considering only temperature is unlikely to be sufficient in studying winter temperature effects on tree growth. Instead, understanding the effects of changing temperature and snow conditions in relation to tree physiology and phenology is needed.

Connecting potential frost damage events identified from meteorological records to radial growth variation in Norway spruce and Scots pine

Conifer radial growth reductions may be related to unusual snow conditions or a mismatch between frost hardiness level and minimum temperature, but not typically to low winter temperature extremes. The aim of this study was to examine if temperature conditions potentially causing frost damage have an effect on radial growth in Norway spruce and Scots pine in Finland. We hypothesized that frost damage occurs and reduces radial growth after (1) extreme cold winter temperatures, (2) frost hardiness levels insufficient to minimum temperatures, and (3) the lack of insulating snow cover during freezing temperatures, resulting in increased frost and decreased temperatures in soil. Meteorological records were used to define variables describing the conditions of each hypothesis and a dynamic frost hardiness model was used to find events of insufficient frost hardiness levels. As frost damage is likely to occur only under exceptional conditions, we used generalized extreme value distributions to describe the frost variables. Our results did not show strong connections between radial growth and the frost damage events. However, significant growth reductions were found at some Norway spruce sites after events insufficient frost hardiness levels, and alternatively, after winters with high frost sum of snowless days. Scots pine did not show significant growth reductions associated with any of the studied variables. Thus, radial growth in Norway spruce may be more sensitive to future changes in winter conditions. Our results demonstrate that considering only temperature is unlikely to be sufficient in studying winter temperature effects on tree growth. Instead, understanding the effects of changing temperature and snow conditions in relation to tree physiology and phenology is needed.

Fine-scale genetic structure of rabbitfish, Siganus fuscescens, in Penghu Archipelago following a mass mortality event caused by extreme cold winter weather

In the winter of 2007–2008, a large number of fish were killed by chilling damage that occurred in the Pescadores (Penghu Archipelago). Such extreme weather events can cause rapid population changes, which provide an opportunity to understand the possible restoration mechanism of coral reef fishes in the Pescadores. The fine-scale genetic structure of the rabbitfish, Siganus fuscescens (Siganidae), was assessed using amplified fragment length polymorphism analysis. Significant genetic differences (lower gene flow) were observed between rabbitfish from the northern and southern parts of the Pescadores (Chenkong-Soukang, Φ ST 0.075, P < 0.001) but not between those from the northern Pescadores and northeastern Taiwan (Chenkong-Keelung, Φ ST 0.03, P > 0.02). The northern Pescadores and northeastern Taiwan have been shown to be relatively connected. The population structure of rabbitfish has complemented and helped support fish population recovery after several chilling events in the Pescadores.

Multiple aspects of northern hemispheric wintertime cold extremes as revealed by Markov chain analysis

High-impact cold extremes have continued to bring devastating socioeconomic losses in recent years. In order to explain the exposure to cold extremes more comprehensively, this study investigates multiple aspects of boreal winter cold extremes, i.e., frequency, persistence, and entropy (Markovian descriptors). Cold extremes are defined by the bottom 10th percentile of daily minimum temperatures during 1950-2014 over the northern hemisphere. The spatial and temporal distributions of Markovian descriptors during 65 years are examined. Climatological mean fields show the spatial coincidence of higher frequency, shorter persistence, and higher entropy of cold extremes, and vice versa. In regard to the temporal variations over six representative regions of North America, Europe, and Asia, all regions share a decreasing tendency of frequency with the increases in regional winter mean temperature. By contrast, persistence and entropy show their intrinsic decadal variability depending on regions irrespective of the regional temperature variability, which give different information from frequency. Therefore, the exposure to cold extremes would not simply decrease with regional warming. Rather these results indicate that the descriptors with multiple aspects of the extremes would be needed to embrace the topical features as well as the holistic nature of cold extremes.

Effect of Extreme Seasons on Some Blood Biochemical Parameters in Beetal and Toggenberg Goats of Jammu Region

The infuence of extreme environmental conditions on biochemical parameters were studied in 36 healthy adult female (2–4 years of age) Beetal (n=18) and Toggenberg (n=18) goats in Jammu (J&K, India). Blood glucose, total cholesterol, total protein, albumin and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) levels were studied during moderate (autumn), extreme hot (summer) and extreme cold (winter) ambiences. Ambient temperature (0C) and relative humidity (%) were recorded and temperature-humidity index (THI) was calculated. For the season and breed interaction, signifcantly higher (P<0.01) total protein and cholesterol levels were found in Toggenberg goats in all the seasons. Signifcantly higher (P<0.01) levels of total protein, albumin and BUN levels were found during summer as compared to autumn and winter seasons. The concentrations of glucose and cholesterol were signifcantly higher (P<0.01) in winter season. Among the two breeds, all the values were signifcantly higher (P<0.01) in Toggenberg. Biochemical parameters change in different seasons and THI values were found higher during summer season and is considered as danger status.

Cold Winter Over North America: The Influence of the East Atlantic (EA) and the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) Teleconnection Patterns

Anomalous cold temperatures and strong cyclonic circulation were observed during winter 2013/14 over North America. In this article, we propose for the first time that positive East Atlantic (EA) and positive Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) patterns were dominant in the winter of 2013/14. The values of the EA and TNH indices for winter 2013/14 were the highest and the second highest for the period of record 1951-2014, respectively. The combined EA and TNH pattern is similar to the corresponding atmospheric circulation observed in the winter of 2013/14. The regression patterns of air temperatures on the EA and TNH index show negative anomalies over North America and the North Atlantic Ocean and positive anomalies over the North Pacific Ocean and the mid-latitude Atlantic Ocean. The regression pattern is similar to air temperature anomalies in winter 2013/14. In addition, the combined EA and TNH pattern correlates with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Pacific and North Atlantic that are similar to the winter SST anomalies in winter 2013/14. The EA and TNH teleconnection patterns have contributed to the anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the extreme cold winter over North America in 2013/14.

Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years

China is distinguished by a prominent monsoonal climate in the east of the country, a continental arid climate in the northwest and a highland cold climate on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Because of the long history of Chinese civilization, there are abundant and well-dated documentary records for climate variation over the whole of the country as well as many natural archives (e.g., tree-rings, ice cores, stalagmites, varved lake sediments and corals) that enable high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper, we review recent advances in the reconstruction of climate and extreme events over the last 2000 years in China. In the last 10 years, many new reconstructions, based on multi-proxies with wide spatial coverage, have been published in China. These reconstructions enable us to understand the characteristics of climate change across the country as well as the uncertainties of regional reconstructions. Synthesized reconstructed temperature results show that warm intervals over the last 2000 years occurred in AD 1–200, AD 551–760, AD 951–1320, and after AD 1921, and also show that cold intervals were in AD 201–350, AD 441–530, AD 781–950, and AD 1321–1920. Extreme cold winters, seen between 1500 and 1900, were more frequent than those after 1950. The intensity of regional heat waves, in the context of recent global warming, may not in fact exceed natural climate variability seen over the last 2000 years. In the eastern monsoonal region of China, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial oscillations are seen in rainfall variability. While the ensemble mean for drought/flood spatial patterns across all cold periods shows a meridional distribution, there is a tri-pole pattern with respect to droughts south of 25°N, floods between 25° and 30°N, and droughts north of 30°N for all warm periods. Data show that extreme drought events were most frequent in the periods AD 301–400, AD 751–800, AD 1051–1150, AD 1501–1550, and AD 1601–1650, while extreme flood events were frequent in the periods AD 101–150, AD 251–300, AD 951–1000, AD 1701–1750, AD 1801–1850, and AD 1901–1950. Between AD 1551–1600, extreme droughts and flood events occurred frequently. In arid northwest China, climate was characterized by dry conditions in AD 1000–1350, wet conditions in AD 1500–1850, and has tended to be wet over recent decades. On the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, centennial-scale oscillations in precipitation have occurred over the last 1000 years, interrupted by several multi-decadal-scale severe drought events. Of these, the most severe were in the 1480s and 1710s. In southwest China, extreme droughts as severe as those seen in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 are known to have occurred during historical times.

Weather and Climate Anomalies in Russian Regions Related to Global Climate Change

Possible mechanisms for the formation of significant weather and climate anomalies in Russia in recent years and their relation to global climate change and natural quasicyclic processes are discussed. Extreme Russian heat wave in 2010, the Amur River flood in 2013, and extreme cold winters are analyzed. All these events were associated with the formation of long-lived blocking anticyclones whose frequency increase can be expected under conditions of global warming. To link such events with the global warming, the effects related to regional and global climatically significant natuial quasicyclic processes should be taken into account. They include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Nino—Southern Oscillation.

Cedrus libani: A promising tree species for Central European forestry facing climate change?

Considering climate change, the discussion intensifies whether and to what extent exotic tree species should be taken into account for forest cultivation, especially when indigenous species are no longer able to fulfill essential forest functions. In this study, for the first time growth potential of Cedrus libani was evaluated under climatic conditions in Central Europe (Bayreuth, Germany). The sampled trees exhibited extraordinary growth with tree ring widths averaging 4.9 mm year(-1) during the past 23 years. A continuously available soil water supply enhanced radial stem growth. Thus, growth declined during the dry year of 2003, but recovered to average values the following year. Our results confirm that C. libani is a light-demanding species which is sensitive to competition and which shows a typical age trend. In a second study, we compared cambial growth in Bayreuth with a natural stand in Elmali (Turkey) in 2009. Cambial growing season in Bayreuth was 45 days longer, and radial growth rates in Bayreuth were four times higher than in Elmali. Interestingly, C. libani maintained a slow but continuous radial growth at Elmali even during the dry summer period, confirming its exceptional drought tolerance. Our results indicate a high adaption of C. libani to current and future climate conditions in Central Europe. It tolerates extreme cold in winter and prolonged droughts during summer. Thus, its promising potential for establishing stable and productive forest stands in Central Europe under a changing climate should be confirmed in further studies.

In this issue of Weather

We open this issue with a new slant on our understanding of climate change. Much of the research into climate and its variability are carried out using scientific method. The normal approach is to use measured data, or information that is a proxy for temperature, such as the rings of trees, or the oxygen content in ice‐core layers. But it is also possible to track the effects of changing climate by personal perceptions, in particular in literature, as written work is digitized. In ‘Social evidence of a changing climate: Google Ngram data points to early climate change impact on human society’ Will Grant and Erin Walsh show that there are records of climatic change going back to the early nineteenth century and that these changes have had an effect on society.Many readers may remember an article by Karen Aplin and Paul Williams in Weather in November 2011 that looked at the use (and misuse) of weather terms in the titles of orchestral music. Now Sally Brown and her co‐authors look at weather terms in pop music in ‘Is there a Rhythm Of The Rain? An analysis of weather in popular music’. A large selection of pop music was examined and a surprising range of weather‐related words was found, ‘sun’ and ‘rain’ topping the charts!After our routine examination of the UK climate in spring 2015, we turn to the ‘Effects of Cyclone Hudhud captured by a high altitude Automatic Weather Station in northwestern Nepal’ by Nicklas Neckel and his co‐authors. Until the development of AWS sensors that could withstand the difficult conditions of a mountain environment, above the level of settlement, it was not easy to observe these effects. In particular, this decaying cyclone brought large amounts of snow at 5400m, high in the Himalaya.Changing our location and setting, once again, Madlen Burgess and Nicholas Klingaman examine aspects of the the synoptic climatology of the UK in ‘Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme cold winters in the UK’. Although these cold winters are related to a general feed of cold air (from the east), it is not established that these extremes are related to a single synoptic type, nor to particular patterns of global climate, perhaps reflecting that daily weather presents much less of a challenge to the forecasting community than seasonal predictions.Finally, we have a letter from Mike Hoddinott, recounting his experiences using radar experimentally to track weather balloons in New Delhi just after the Second World War.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme cold winters in the UK

This study examines the atmospheric circulation patterns and surface features associated with the seven coldest winters in the U.K. since 1870, using the 20th Century Reanalysis. Six of these winters are outside the scope of previous reanalysis datasets; we examine them here for the first time. All winters show a marked lack of the climatological southwesterly flow over the UK, displaying easterly and northeasterly anomalies. Six of the seven winters (all except 1890) were associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation; 1890 was characterised by a blocking anticyclone over and northeast of the UK.

The role of vegetation–microclimate feedback in promoting shrub encroachment in the northern Chihuahuan desert

Many arid and semi-arid landscapes around the world are affected by a shift from grassland to shrubland vegetation, presumably induced by climate warming, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and/or changing land use. This major change in vegetation cover is likely sustained by positive feedbacks with the physical environment. Recent research has focused on a feedback with microclimate, whereby cold intolerant shrubs increase the minimum nocturnal temperatures in their surroundings. Despite the rich literature on the impact of land cover change on local climate conditions, changes in microclimate resulting from shrub expansion into desert grasslands have remained poorly investigated. It is unclear to what extent such a feedback can affect the maximum extent of shrub expansion and the configuration of a stable encroachment front. Here, we focus on the case of the northern Chihuahuan desert, where creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) has been replacing grasslands over the past 100-150years. We use a process-based coupled atmosphere-vegetation model to investigate the role of this feedback in sustaining shrub encroachment in the region. Simulations indicate that the feedback allows juvenile shrubs to establish in the grassland during average years and, once established, reduce their vulnerability to freeze-induced mortality by creating a warmer microclimate. Such a feedback is crucial in extreme cold winters as it may reduce shrub mortality. We identify the existence of a critical zone in the surroundings of the encroachment front, in which vegetation dynamics are bistable: in this zone, vegetation can be stable both as grassland and as shrubland. The existence of these alternative stable states explains why in most cases the shift from grass to shrub cover is found to be abrupt and often difficult to revert.

Do weather fluctuations cause people to seek information about climate change?

Learning about the causes and consequences of climate change can be an important avenue for supporting mitigation policy and efficient adaptation. This paper uses internet search activity data, a distinctly revealed preference approach, to examine if local weather fluctuations cause people to seek information about climate change. The results suggest that weather fluctuations do have an effect on climate change related search behavior, however not always in ways that are consistent with the projected impacts of climate change. While search activity increases with extreme heat in summer and extended periods of no rainfall and declines in extreme cold in winter, search activity also increases with colder winter and spring average temperatures. Some of the surprising results are magnified when heterogeneity by political ideology and educational attainment in responsiveness is modeled, which could suggest that different people have different perceptions about what types of weather define climate change or that climate science deniers seek information through Google. However, the results also indicate that for all groups in the political and educational spectrum, there exist weather events consistent with the predicted impacts of climate change that elicit increased information seeking.