Extreme Precipitation Events Research Articles

A Reanalysis Precipitation Integration Method Utilizing the Generalized Three-Cornered Hat Approach and High-Resolution, Gauge-Based Datasets

The development of high-precision, long-term, hourly-scale precipitation data is essential for understanding extreme precipitation events. Reanalysis systems are particularly promising for this type of research due to their long-term observations and wide spatial coverage. This study aims to construct a more robust precipitation dataset by integrating three widely-used reanalysis precipitation estimates: Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). A novel integration method based on the generalized three-cornered hat (TCH) approach is employed to quantify uncertainties in these products. To enhance accuracy, the high-density daily precipitation data from the Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observation Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset is used for correction. Results show that the TCH method effectively identifies seasonal and spatial uncertainties across the products. The TCH-weighted product (TW), calculated using signal-to-noise ratio weighting, outperforms the original reanalysis datasets across various watersheds and seasons. After correction with APHRODITE data, the enhanced integrated product (ATW) significantly improves accuracy, making it more suitable for extreme precipitation event analysis. Quantile mapping was applied to assess the ability of TW and ATW to represent extreme precipitation. Both products showed improved accuracy in regional average precipitation, with ATW demonstrating superior improvement. This integration method provides a robust approach for refining reanalysis precipitation datasets, contributing to more reliable hydrological and climate studies.

Propagations From Extreme Integrated Vapor Transport to Extreme Precipitation Events in North America

AbstractExtreme integrated vapor transport (IVT) is a crucial driving factor of extreme precipitation events (EPEs). This paper presents a complex network‐based characterization of propagations from extreme IVT to EPEs. Specifically, the propagations are tracked from extreme IVT to EPEs by event synchronization; and then the source zones of extreme IVT contributing to EPEs are identified by two‐layer complex network. A case study is devised for North America based on the daily NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 from 1948 to 2021. Overall, eight communities of EPEs are identified: the west coast of United States (US) tend to receive substantial EPEs from the Pacific Ocean; the Gulf of Alaska tends to receive oceanic EPEs propagating inland; western Canada typically experiences large amount of out tendencies and the EPEs tend to accumulate in the Baffin Island and Labrador Peninsula; the southeastern US and the northern Great Plains tend to experience northward propagations from Mexico. Along the west coast of North America, the propagations from extreme IVT to EPEs typically originate from the eastern North Pacific between 160°W and 110°W, and make landfalls in 4 days. These propagations are influenced by anomalous cyclonic circulations developing over the Gulf of Alaska forced by eastward Rossby waves. The coincidence rate of these propagations with atmospheric rivers is, respectively, 85.31% in autumn, 91.35% in winter, 73.94% in spring, and 64.52% in summer. Overall, the observed propagations from extreme IVT to EPEs yield insights into the mechanism of atmospheric moisture transport and the predictability of precipitation.

Extreme Precipitation Events During the Wet Season of the South America Monsoon: A Historical Analysis over Three Major Brazilian Watersheds

Most of South America, particularly the region between the southern Amazon and southeastern Brazil, as well as a large part of the La Plata Basin, has its climate regulated by the South American Monsoon System. Extreme weather and climate events in these areas have significant socioeconomic impacts. The Madeira, São Francisco, and Paraná river basins, three major watersheds in Brazil, are especially vulnerable to wet and drought periods due to their importance as freshwater ecosystems and sources of water for consumption, energy generation, and agriculture. The scarcity of surface meteorological stations in these basins makes meteorological studies challenging, often using reanalysis and satellite data. This study aims to identify extreme weather (wet) and climate (wet and drought) events during the extended wet season (October to March) from 1980 to 2022 and evaluate the performance of two gridded datasets (CPC and ERA5) to determine which best captures the observed patterns in the Madeira, São Francisco, and Paraná river basins. Wet weather events were identified using the 95th percentile, and wet and drought periods were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on a 6-month scale. In general, CPC data showed slightly superior performance compared to ERA5 in reproducing statistical measures. For extreme day precipitation, both datasets captured the time series pattern, but CPC better reproduced extreme values and trends. The results also indicate a decrease in wet periods and an increase in drought events. Both datasets performed well, showing they can be used in the absence of station data.

Increasing extreme hourly precipitation risk for New York City after Hurricane Ida.

The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused major damage and death in the United States on September 1st, 2021, and 11 people drowned in flooded basement apartments within New York City (NYC). It was catastrophic because the maximum hourly precipitation intensity, recorded as 3.47 inches (88.1mm) per hour at Central Park, was unprecedentedly high for the NYC region. The stormwater infrastructure in NYC is built for 1.75 inches (44.5mm) per hour, and so understanding the dynamic risk associated with Ida can inform city planning efforts for climate change's impact on short duration extreme precipitation events. We contextualize this storm's record-breaking hourly intensity within the historical record as well as project its risk in the near- to medium-term future using nonstationary stochastic models. These models are conditioned on average temperature (Tavg) and cooling degree day (CDD) projections from three climate models as a covariate, each with a SSP 126 and SSP 370 scenario. The likelihood of such a storm was slowly increasing even before Ida happened, but the projected aggregate reoccurrence risk of an event of Ida's magnitude over time from the non-stationary models ranges from 4 to 52 times higher than the risk given by the stationary model. Using CDD as a covariate resulted in risks that were more than twice the magnitude than when using Tavg. Presenting both covariates provides a broader envelope of uncertainty, which highlights the importance and nuances in the choice of a regionally appropriate covariate for non-stationary risk analysis.

Simulated nitrogen deposition and precipitation events alter microbial carbon cycling during early stages of litter decomposition

Abstract Plant litter decomposition is a major nutrient input to terrestrial ecosystems that is primarily driven by microorganisms. Litter quality is considered a key drive of decomposition; however, human-induced global disturbance like nitrogen deposition and increasing extreme precipitation events will shift nutrient availability during litter decomposition. Little is known about how shifting nutrient availability will impact dissolved organic matter concentrations and microbially driven carbon cycling that are critical to soil organic matter formation. This study investigated the effect of simulated nitrogen deposition and repeated precipitation events on microbially-driven carbon flow during short-term litter decomposition using a ‘common garden’ experiment with microcosms containing sand and blue grama grass litter inoculated with different microbial communities. Overall, nitrogen deposition decoupled respiration and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) by increasing respiration and not affecting DOC concentrations. Moreover, nitrogen deposition had no effect on microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE). Repeated simulated precipitation events significantly increased DOC concentrations, decreased microbial CUE, increased the microbial metabolic quotient (qCO2), and altered microbial composition and diversity. These findings highlight the complex interactions and responses of surface litter decomposers to shifting nutrient availability and contradicts previous findings that nitrogen deposition will increase soil carbon sequestration from a larger supply of DOC and reduced respiration.

Diagnosing the role of atmospheric variability on the extreme summer monsoon precipitation events over India

Diagnosing the role of atmospheric variability on the extreme summer monsoon precipitation events over India

Detecting the Vertical Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Headwater Area of Yellow River Using the Dual‐Frequency Precipitation Radar Onboard the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

ABSTRACTIn the context of global warming, the rise in extreme precipitation events in high‐altitude headwater areas has introduced greater hydrological uncertainty. However, the limited understanding of the physical mechanisms driving extreme precipitation in these areas hinders efforts to mitigate the potential rise in future precipitation risks. This study analysed the extreme precipitation events in the headwater area of the Yellow River (HAYR) from May to September each year from 2015 to 2020 using satellite‐based data from Dual‐frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) on the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory and Integrated Multi‐satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG). The results show that stratiform precipitation (SP) determines the spatial extent of extreme precipitation events, while convective precipitation (CP) largely affects the rainfall intensity. Statistical analysis from different extreme precipitation events indicates that the rain rate of CP is 2 to 3 times higher than that of SP, thus zones of intense precipitation in the study area are normally dominated by CP. Vertically, the topographic lifting in complex mountainous regions exerts opposite effects on the precipitation rates of SP and CP, weakening the precipitation intensity of SP while enhancing that of CP. The peak precipitation rate in the midstream and downstream regions is observed at approximately 5 km, whereas the upstream region displays a distinctive double‐peaked distribution, with one peak at 8.5 km and another near the surface. This study provides a better understanding of the interior structure evolution process of plateau precipitation, as well as the associated microphysical properties, and highlights some insights to improve microphysical parameterization in the future model developments.

Observed Changes and Projected Risks of Hot–Dry/Hot–Wet Compound Events in China

Compound extreme events can cause serious impacts on both the natural environment and human beings. This work aimed to explore the changes in compound drought–heatwave and heatwave–extreme precipitation events (i.e., CDHEs and CHPEs) across China using daily-scale gauge-based meteorological observations, and to examine their future projections and potential risks using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The results show the following: (1) The frequencies of CDHEs and CHPEs across China showed a significant increasing trend from 1961 to 2020, with contrasting trends between the first half and second half of the period (i.e., a decrease from 1961 to 1990 and an increase from 1991 to 2020). Similar trends were observed for four intensity levels (i.e., mild, moderate, severe, and extreme) of CDHEs and CHPEs. (2) All the frequencies under three SSP scenarios will show increasing trends, especially under higher emission scenarios. Moreover, the projected intensities of CDHEs and CHPEs will gradually increase, especially for higher levels. (3) The exposure of the population (POP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be concentrated mainly in China’s coastal areas. The GDP exposures to the CDHEs and CHPEs will reach their highest values for SSP5-8.5, while the POP exposure will peak for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Our findings can offer scientific and technological support to actively mitigate future climate change risks.

Dynamic processes determine precipitation variability in Eastern Central European since the Last Glacial Maximum

AbstractThe response of European precipitation variability to climate change is still poorly understood. Here we present a high-resolution speleothem record of Eastern Central European (ECE) autumn/winter precipitation to study decadal to centennial hydroclimatic variations in the European-Atlantic sector since the Last Glacial Maximum. The Cloşani Cave δ18O record shows that the reorganization of the North Atlantic jet following the demise of the Northern Hemispheric ice sheets lasted until c. 6000 to 5000 years before present. Trace element-derived semi-quantitative autumn/winter precipitation amount reveals that the late Glacial and the early to mid-Holocene experienced about 20–30% higher precipitation than present. During the deglaciation, we detect an increased decadal to centennial precipitation variability decoupled from millennial-scale North Atlantic temperature changes. The findings suggest that dynamic (rather than thermodynamic) processes determine regional precipitation variability and the probability of extreme precipitation events in ECE, highlighting the importance of understanding such dynamics for future predictions.

Performance Evaluation of Satellite Precipitation Products During Extreme Events—The Case of the Medicane Daniel in Thessaly, Greece

Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, or Medicanes, present unique challenges for precipitation estimations due to their rapid development and localized impacts. This study evaluates the performance of satellite precipitation products in capturing the precipitation associated with Medicane Daniel that struck Greece in early September 2023. Utilizing a combination of ground-based observations, reanalysis, and satellite-derived precipitation data, we assess the accuracy and spatial distribution of the satellite precipitation products GPM IMERG, GSMaP, and CMOPRH during the cyclone event, which formed in the Eastern Mediterranean from 4 to 7 September 2023, hitting with unprecedented, enormous amounts of rainfall, especially in the region of Thessaly in central Greece. The results indicate that, while satellite precipitation products demonstrate overall skill in capturing the broad-scale precipitation patterns associated with Medicane Daniel, discrepancies exist in estimating localized intense rainfall rates, particularly in convective cells within the cyclone’s core. Indeed, most of the satellite precipitation products studied in this work showed a misplacement of the highest amounts of associated rainfall, a significant underestimation of the event, and large unbiased root mean square error in the areas of heavy precipitation. The total precipitation field from IMERG Late Run and CMORPH showed the smallest bias (but significant) and good temporal correlation against rain gauges and ERA5-Land reanalysis data as a reference, while IMERG Final Run and GSMaP showed the largest underestimation and overestimation, respectively. Further investigation is needed to improve the representation of extreme precipitation events associated with tropical-like cyclones in satellite precipitation products.

Numerical simulation and validation of heavy rainfall flood inundation in small watersheds in undocumented mountainous areas

ABSTRACT With global warming and the increase in extreme precipitation events, floods are becoming more frequent in mountainous areas, and the safety of lives and property of people is seriously threatened. However, understanding of the flooding process in uninformative mountainous areas is limited due to the lack of high-quality hydrometeorological data. Hence, this study adopts the MIKE21 model to simulate flood inundation in the Shadai River basin in the Qilian Mountain region of the northern Tibetan Plateau as an example. This validates the model-simulated flow and inundation extent using the flow data obtained from the calculation of the flood trace points, extent of inundation, and high-resolution remote sensing images. The results show that the flash flood inundation mainly occurs at 12:00–01:00 AM on 18 August 2022, and the simulated and actual maximum inundation areas are 7.9 and 9.5 km2, respectively. The fitted F-statistic value is 0.81, and the relative error between the calculated flow rate of the flood trace point and the model-simulated flow rate is 8%, indicating good consistency. Furthermore, an in-depth exploration of the model parameter sensitivity reveals that the use of distributed Manning's roughness coefficient value has higher simulation accuracy.

Trends of Climate Extremes and Their Relationships with Tropical Ocean Temperatures in South America

South America has experienced significant changes in climate patterns over recent decades, particularly in terms of precipitation and temperature extremes. This study analyzes trends in climate extremes from 1979 to 2020 across South America, focusing on their relationships with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The analysis uses precipitation and temperature indices, such as the number of heavy rainfall days (R10mm, R20mm, R30mm), total annual precipitation (PRCPTOT), hottest day (TXx), and heatwave duration (WSDI), to assess changes over time. The results show a widespread decline in total annual precipitation across the continent, although some regions, particularly in the northeast and southeast, experienced an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. Extreme temperatures have also risen consistently across South America, with an increase in both the frequency and duration of heat extremes, indicating an ongoing warming trend. The study also highlights the significant role of SST anomalies in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in driving these climate extremes. Strong correlations were found between Pacific SST anomalies (Niño 3.4 region) and extreme precipitation events in the northern and southern regions of South America. Similarly, Atlantic SST anomalies, especially in the Northern Atlantic (TNA), exhibited notable impacts on temperature extremes, particularly heatwaves. These findings underscore the complex interactions between SST anomalies and climate variability in South America, providing crucial insights into the dynamics of climate extremes in the region. Understanding these relationships is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to the increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes.

Extreme hydroclimatic events and response of vegetation in the eastern QTP since 10 ka

Abstract Climate variations during the Holocene significantly impacted vegetation dynamics in the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, vegetation evolution in response to regional climatic trends and events during this interval remains controversial. Here, we present well-dated decadal-resolution loss on ignition (LOI) and grain size records from the Xing Co Lake on the eastern QTP. The records show an overall drying trend since 10 thousand years ago (ka), with multiple extreme precipitation events observed during 10 to 7 ka. An extreme drought event occurred at around 5.5 ka, after which the climate was drier and unstable with several drought events. In comparison with the hydroclimate, insolation, and El Niño Southern Oscillation records, our data show a close correspondence with the summer insolation differential between 30°N and 30°S and El Niño events on orbital-millennium timescales. This suggested that the increased rainfall during the early Holocene on the eastern QTP can be attributed to the high insolation differential between 30°N and 30°S and low El Niño events. Conversely, the drying trend in the late Holocene appears to correlate with a low insolation differential and high El Niño events. Whenever ice-rafted debris events occurred in the North Atlantic, there was a corresponding occurrence of drying events in the late Holocene in the Zoige Basin. This suggested that teleconnection between the precipitation on the eastern QTP and the North Atlantic climate exists in the Holocene. When compared to independent hydroclimatic and arboreal pollen (AP%) records on the eastern QTP, the evolutionary trends and events of AP% align closely with local hydroclimate changes. This suggested that arboreal coverage could rapidly respond to climate change during the Holocene, but further studies are needed.

Projected future changes in extreme precipitation over China under stratospheric aerosol intervention in the UKESM1 climate model

Abstract. Extreme precipitation events are linked to severe economic losses and casualties in China every year; hence, exploring the potential mitigation strategies to minimize these events and their changes in frequency and intensity under global warming is of importance, particularly for the populous subregions. In addition to global warming scenarios, this study examines the effects of the potential deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on hydrological extremes in China based on the SAI simulations (G6sulfur) of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) by the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations. G6sulfur is compared with simulations of the future climate under two different emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5) and a reduction in the solar constant (G6solar) to understand the effect of SAI on extreme precipitation patterns. The results show that under global warming scenarios, precipitation and extreme wet climate events during 2071–2100 are projected to increase relative to the control period (1981–2010) across all the subregions in China. Extreme drought events show a projected increase in southern China. The G6sulfur and G6solar experiments show statistically similar results to those under SSP2-4.5 in extreme precipitation intensities of China in UKESM1. These results are encouraging. The efficacy of SAI in decreasing extreme precipitation events and consecutive wet days is more pronounced than that of G6solar when compared to SSP2-4.5. While both G6sulfur and G6solar show drying at high-latitude regions, which is consistent with our understanding of the spin-down of the hydrological cycle under SRM. Given the limitations of the current model and the small ensemble size, and considering that the hydrological effects are less beneficial than those indicated for temperature, it is recommended that further, more comprehensive research be performed, including using multiple models, to better understand these impacts.

Floods of Egypt’s Nile in the 21st century

Extreme precipitation and flooding events are rising globally, necessitating a thorough understanding and sustainable management of water resources. One such setting is the Nile River’s source areas, where high precipitation has led to the filling of Lake Nasser (LN) twice (1998–2003; 2019–2022) in the last two decades and the diversion of overflow to depressions west of the Nile, where it is lost mainly to evaporation. Using temporal satellite-based data, climate models, and continuous rainfall-runoff models, we identified the primary contributor to increased runoff that reached LN in the past two decades and assessed the impact of climate change on the LN’s runoff throughout the twenty-first century. Findings include: (1) the Blue Nile subbasin (BNS) is the primary contributor to increased downstream runoff, (2) the BNS runoff was simulated in the twenty-first century using a calibrated (1965–1992) rainfall-runoff model with global circulation models (GCMs), CCSM4, HadGEM3, and GFDL-CM4.0, projections as model inputs, (3) the extreme value analysis for projected runoff driven by GCMs’ output indicates extreme floods are more severe in the twenty-first century, (4) one adaptation for the projected twenty-first century increase in precipitation (25–39%) and flood (2%-20%) extremes is to recharge Egypt’s fossil aquifers during high flood years.

Role of Quasi‐Biweekly Cloud‐Radiative Feedback in Modulating and Simulating Extreme Rainfall Intensity Over Asian Monsoon Regions

AbstractAlthough Cloud‐radiative feedback (CRF) has been investigated in terms of its modulation of extreme precipitation over tropical oceans, the specific timeframe of CRF variability and the associated processes driving extreme rainfall over Asian monsoon regions remain unclear. Based on observational analyses and model sensitivity experiments, this study reveals that longwave CRF at the quasi‐biweekly timescale is most closely linked to the intensity of persistent (≥3‐day) heavy rainfall events in southern China and northern India by efficiently maintaining the large‐scale convective perturbations. When CRF is disabled, the quasi‐biweekly convective anomalies supporting extreme precipitation are weakened. Additional assessments of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations confirm that models with more accurate quasi‐biweekly longwave CRF exhibit smaller biases in capturing the amplitude of persistent heavy rainfall. These results have implications for improving model capability in simulating and forecasting quasi‐biweekly CRF to mitigate the risks of extreme precipitation events in monsoonal Asia.

Precipitation Extremes and Their Modulation by Convective Organization in RCEMIP

AbstractWe examine the influence of convective organization on extreme tropical precipitation events using model simulation data from the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP). At a given SST, simulations with convective organization have more intense precipitation extremes than those without it at all scales, including instantaneous precipitation at the grid resolution (3 km). Across large‐domain simulations with convective organization, models with explicit convection exhibit better agreement in the response of extreme precipitation rates to warming than those with parameterized convection. Among models with explicit convection, deviations from the Clausius‐Clapeyron scaling of precipitation extremes with warming are correlated with changes in organization, especially on large spatiotemporal scales. Though the RCEMIP ensemble is nearly evenly split between CRMs which become more and less organized with warming, most of the models which show increased organization with warming also allow super‐CC scaling of precipitation extremes. We also apply an established precipitation extremes scaling to understand changes in the extreme condensation events leading to extreme precipitation. Increased organization leads to greater increases in precipitation extremes by enhancing both the dynamic and implied efficiency contributions. We link these contributions to environmental variables modified by the presence of organization and suggest that increases in moisture in the aggregated region may be responsible for enhancing both convective updraft area fraction and precipitation efficiency. By leveraging a controlled intercomparison of models with both explicit and parameterized convection, this work provides strong evidence for the amplification of tropical precipitation extremes and their response to warming by convective organization.

Evaluating Extremes in Climatology with Average Value-at-Risk Measure: Example of Precipitation Data from Upper Vistula Region in Poland

Abstract The ability to predict changes in the right tail of daily precipitation distributions over short time periods, as well as the probability of clustering extreme values, is critical for current risk management. In the present study, we apply the well-established metric average value-at-risk (AVaR) for the first time within the field of climatology. We also investigate the evolution of the return level (RL) and the extremal index (EI), which we refer to as risk measures. In the case of precipitation processes, a rise in the first two and a reduction in the third may result in increased hazards. These methods were applied to the new data on the daily sum of precipitation from the region of Upper Vistula in Poland from 1951 to 2020 to analyze the dynamics of changes across time. We found that AVaR and RL have the smallest values for the middle of the analyzed period (years 1971–2010), while EI has a maximal value around 1963–92. Both the beginning and the end of the investigated period are characterized by more extreme and clustered precipitation events. Furthermore, this paper includes some recommendations for the tools used to compute the measures.

Impact‐Based Skill Evaluation of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

AbstractWe introduce an impact‐based framework to evaluate seasonal forecast model skill in capturing extreme weather and climate events over regions prone to natural disasters such as floods and wildfires. Forecasting hydroclimatic extremes holds significant importance in an era of increasing hazards such as wildfires, floods, and droughts. We evaluate the performance of five Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) seasonal forecast models (CMCC, DWD, ECCC, UK‐Met, and Météo‐France) in predicting extreme precipitation events from 1993 to 2016 using 14 indices reflecting timing and intensity (using absolute and locally defined thresholds) of precipitation at a seasonal timescale. Performance metrics, including Percent Bias, Kendall Tau Rank Correlation Score, and models' discrimination capacity, are used for skill evaluation. Our findings indicate that the performance of models varies markedly across regions and seasons. While models generally show good skill in the tropical regions, their skill in extra‐tropical regions is markedly lower. Elevated precipitation thresholds (i.e., higher intensity indices) correlate with heightened model biases, indicating deficiencies in modeling severe precipitation events. Our analysis using an impact‐based framework highlights the superior predictive capabilities of the UK‐Met and Météo‐France models in capturing the underlying processes that drive precipitation events, or lack thereof, across many regions and seasons. Other models exhibit strong performance in specific regions and/or seasons, but not globally. These results advance our understanding of an impact‐based framework in capturing a broad spectrum of extreme weather and climatic events, and inform strategic amalgamation of diverse models across different regions and seasons, thereby offering valuable insights for disaster management and risk analysis.

The impact of long-term organic horticultural systems on energy outputs and carbon storages in relation to extreme rainfall events

Enhancing resilience of agroecosystems of Mediterranean area is a challenge that involves both researchers and different stakeholders and, in this context, increasing crop diversity by redesigning agricultural systems can be considered among the most important tools. Therefore, the response of agroecological practices to climate change effects was tested in a long-term experiment on organic horticultural crops (MITIORG), which is characterized by a soil hydraulic arrangement in ridges, strips and the use (with different management options) of cover crops within cash crops rotations. The main objective of this study was to show how powerful is the sustainability assessment of agroecological practices by converting crops yield and biomass into energy outputs and carbon storages, in diversified horticultural systems. The obtained outputs (expressed in energy and carbon equivalents) were evaluated and analyzed considering the site-specific meteorological data in more than 10 horticultural cropping cycles, from autumn-winter 2014-15 to autumn-winter 2020-21. The Ridge and Strips (RS) system 1 (RS1 - cover crops as living mulch on ridges and break crops in strips, both with no-till termination) showed an enhancement of about 18% of energy output and carbon (C) storages compared to RS2 (ridges and strips with green manured cover) when extreme precipitation events occurred. Moreover, RS3 (ridges and strips without cover crops) recorded a reduction of about 5 and 9% of energy output and C storage, respectively, compared to the mean of RS1 and RS2 in periods with extreme events. Our results highlighted that using more diversified agroecological systems improved their overall average outputs, ensuring greater resilience during extreme weather events, since at least part of crop productions was safeguarded. Therefore, it is important to combine techniques that allow long-term resilience, such as choosing and well managing cover crops (agroecological service crops), according to site and systems specific conditions.