Extreme Phenomena Research Articles

Augmented reality about Tropical Cyclones in the Dominican Republic: evaluation of learning and cognitive load

Abstract Introduction The Dominican Republic, due to its nature as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), faces several challenges in the face of extreme weather phenomena such as hurricanes. Therefore, integrating technologies such as Augmented Reality (AR) in teaching these topics in class can influence student motivation and improve learning. Aim This article has three objectives: 1) to evaluate the learning results of the participating students using the pre-test and post-test methodology; 2) to find out the cognitive load it produces in the participating students and 3) to analyze the relationships between the different types of cognitive load. Methodology It has a quantitative approach, with a quasi-experimental design using the pre-test-post-test technique. It was carried out between May and July 2024 and consists of a non-probabilistic sample (N = 45). In addition, the student’s cognitive load was measured when interacting with the AR object, in its three types: internal, external, and relevant. Results When comparing the results of the pre-test and post-test, we obtained average values of 3.84 with a high level of variability and 4.75, with less dispersion in the answers. On the other hand, the cognitive load instrument shows high levels of internal consistency with 0.93 for the total instrument. The strongest correlation, 0.93, was obtained between external cognitive load and mental effort invested. Conclusions The hypothesis has been tested: participating students have better learning outcomes about hurricanes (tropical cyclones) after interacting with the learning object in AR format.

Decadal trends and climatic influences on flash droughts and flash floods in Indian cities

Flash droughts/floods are extreme weather phenomena that are expected to become increasingly frequent and severe with the changing climate. Flash droughts result from a rapid decline in soil moisture, while flash floods occur due to a high extreme rainfall intensity over a short duration. This study analyzes the ERA5 reanalysis data (hourly temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation) from 1992 to 2022 to assess flash drought/flood attribute variations across fourteen Indian cities. Flash drought events are identified based on specific conditions using the obtained Soil Moisture Index (SMI) values. At the same time, we propose a novel approach to attribute flash floods by setting thresholds for precipitation and soil moisture.This study examines the frequency and trends of flash drought and flood events across India's various Köppen-Geiger climatic zones from 1992 to 2022. Jaipur and Dehradun show a statistically significant decrease in flash drought events with magnitudes of −0.0833 events/year and −0.0769 events/year, respectively. Conversely, Hyderabad exhibits a highly significant increase in flash flood events with a magnitude of 1.1851 events/year. Similarly, Bengaluru, Varanasi, and Vishakhapatnam also show substantial increases in flash flood events. These findings underscore the impact of climate change on flash droughts/floods, highlighting the necessity for sustainable strategies.

Climate Change Impact on the Stability of Soil Slopes from a Hydrological and Geotechnical Perspective

Climate change (CC) is expected to cause significant changes in weather patterns, leading to extreme phenomena. Specifically, the intensity of precipitation extremes is continuously escalating, even in regions with decreasing average precipitation levels. Given that CC leads to long-term shifts in weather patterns and may affect the precipitation characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, and intensity) directly related to groundwater table fluctuations and soil erosion phenomena, it has the potential to significantly affect soil slope instabilities. In turn, slope stability and the structural integrity of nearby structures and infrastructure will be affected. Accordingly, the present paper focuses on the impact of CC on the geohazard of soil slope instability by considering both hydrological aspects, i.e., the impact on rainfall intensity on the groundwater table and the geotechnical aspects of this complex problem. The findings reveal that the impact of CC on potential slope instabilities can be detrimental or even beneficial, depending on the specific site and water conditions. Therefore, it is essential to do the following: (a) collect all the available data of the area of interest, (b) assess their variations over time, and (c) examine each potentially unstable slope on a case-by-case basis to properly mitigate this geohazard.

Comparison of Different Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Methods Based on a Severe Rainfall Event in Tuscany, Italy, November 2023

Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is fundamental for a large number of hydrometeorological applications, especially when addressing extreme rainfall phenomena. This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of various rainfall estimation methods, specifically those relying on weather radar data, rain gauge data, and their fusion. The study evaluates the accuracy and reliability of each method in estimating rainfall for a severe event that occurred in Tuscany, Italy. The results obtained confirm that merging radar and rain gauge data outperforms both individual approaches by reducing errors and improving the overall reliability of precipitation estimates. This study highlights the importance of data fusion in enhancing the accuracy of QPE and also supports its application in operational contexts, providing further evidence for the greater reliability of merging methods.

Beyond acceptable criticism

Abstract This paper utilizes the concept of debasement to examine politicians’ rhetoric in Japan. It focuses on 3,233 questions posed by opposition party members to Cabinet ministers during the 2023 meetings of the Budget Committee in both houses of the National Diet. The analysis identifies debasement comments, examining the linkage between the use of such language and a list of socio-political variables, including ideological orientation, differences in electoral systems, and previous career occupation. From a cross-cultural perspective, abusive rhetoric in Japan might not seem to be an extreme phenomenon, but because of cultural factors even the use of “mild” invective language indicates a clear intention of politicians to debase the reputation of their counterparts in the parliament.

Understanding the rise in violent extremism in Pakistan through the lens of securitization theory

ABSTRACT Over the last three decades, the phenomenon of violent extremism, primarily religious and ethno-nationalist extremism, has emerged as one of the biggest security challenges for Pakistan. With continuous technological innovations and advancements, the nature of violent extremism is constantly evolving, and now more than ever, it is threatening Pakistan’s social fabric, causing domestic disharmony and leading to unrest and terrorism. More importantly, it adversely affects the state’s foreign relations. This study aims to comprehensively examine the complex interplay of factors contributing to violent extremism in Pakistan. By investigating both the root causes and the ensuing effects through the Securitization paradigm’s lens, this research seeks to develop effective policy strategies to combat this growing threat. The securitization paradigm is crucial for understanding how extremist ideologies are constructed as existential threats, shaping societal responses and informing counter-extremism measures. The paper follows a mixed approach based on descriptive and critical analytical qualitative research methods.

Fragments of harmony amid apparent chaos: A closer look at the X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions of the galaxy RX J1301.9+2747

Quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) are an extreme X-ray variability phenomenon associated with low-mass ($M_ BH < 10^7 M_ odot $) supermassive black holes (SMBHs). First discovered in the nucleus of the galaxy GSN 069, they have been so far securely detected in five other galaxies, including RX J1301.9+2747. When detected, the out-of-QPE emission (quiescence) is consistent with the high-energy tail of thermal emission from an accretion disk. In this article we present the X-ray properties of RX J1301.9+2747, both in quiescence and during QPEs, and complement this information with radio observations. We analyze X-ray data taken during five XMM-Newton observations between 2000 and 2022. The last three observations were taken in coordination with radio observations with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array. We also made use of EXOSAT, ROSAT, and Chandra archival observations taken between 1983 and 2009. XMM-Newton detected 34 QPEs of which eight have significantly lower amplitudes than the others. No correlated radio/X-ray variability was observed during QPEs. In terms of timing properties, the QPEs in RX J1301.9+2747 do not exhibit the striking regularity observed in the discovery source GSN 069. In fact there is no clear repetition pattern between QPEs: the average time separation between their peaks is about four hours, but it can be as short as one, and as long as six hours. The QPE spectral properties of RX J1301.9+2747 as a function of energy are, however, very similar to those of GSN 069 and of other QPE sources. During their evolution, X-ray QPEs follow a hysteresis pattern in the temperature-luminosity plane, with a hotter rise than decay. The quiescent emission of RX J1301.9+2747 is more complex than that of GSN 069, as it requires a soft X-ray excess-like component in addition to the thermal emission from the accretion disk. Its long-term X-ray quiescent flux variations are of a low amplitude and not strictly monotonic, with a general decay over the course of $ years. We discuss our observational results in terms of some of the ideas and models that have been proposed so far for the physical origin of QPEs.

Analysis of intense hydrological periods based on observed and estimated flow series at a reference station on the Paraná River, Argentina

The hydrological variability and especially extreme phenomena such as droughts and floods affect natural and human systems worldwide. The Paraná River sub-basin, belonging to the La Plata basin, is of great regional importance, and in recent years extreme events have been observed that have impacted socio-economic aspects of the community. This study compares the series of a relevant hydrological index, calculated from observed flows and unregulated contributions within Argentine territory, at the same reference station. Intense hydrological periods are analyzed in both cases, for droughts and excess water events, for subsequent comparison.

An integrated, automated and modular approach for real-time weather monitoring of surface meteorological variables and short-range forecasting using machine learning

Weather monitoring and forecasting plays a vital role in a great variety of human activities such as agriculture, transportation, and extreme weather phenomena. This study presents the first outcomes of the development of a fully automated system regarding the real-time recording of basic meteorological parameters and their short-range forecasting (nowcasting). The system itself is divided into five core components: a hardware system for monitoring atmospheric conditions (Commercial Off-The-Shelf structures), a system for storing and managing data, a module for distributing data to support applications, a machine learning algorithm for nowcasting, and a user-friendly interface, all made by modern tools and methods, described analytically. Finally, the nowcasting procedure along with the relative accuracy results, is presented. The nowcasting procedure is based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model scheme which is parametrized in such a way that reliable forecasts, up to 2 h ahead of time, can be provided.

Climatic and anthropogenic deflation change factors in the territory of Belarus and their regional features

The present study deals with the analysis of the frequency and recurrence of extreme deflation phenomena in the territory of Belarus. The deflation intensity was estimated using meteorological data. 810 cases of dust storms and drifting snow were recorded in the country in the period of 1961–2022, of which 238 had low intensity, 213 – medium intensity and 359 – high intensity. The deflation phenomenon dynamics was analyzed: in the period of 1961–2000 the number of cases decreased gradually, but after 2000 there was an increase in dust storms. The growth of deflation repeatability corresponds to ongoing current climate changes. The spatial zoning of the country by deflation intensity was conducted based on the relief, the composition and structure of cover deposits, and the conditions of economic development of the area. The zones are presented as follows: with low deflation intensity (central Belarusian hills and ridges, northern and eastern regions of the country), medium (central regions of the country) and high (Belarusian Polesie, Grodno, Volkovysk and Slonim uplands with adjacent plains and lowlands).

Slicing the gordian knot of political extremism: Issues and potential solutions regarding its conceptualization and terminology

The main goal of the present work is to highlight the problems surrounding the current definition of political extremism and the misuse of this and other related terms like radicalism and radicalization. It is argued that these issues generate confusion and obscure research efforts regarding these phenomena. We identify four major problems regarding the terminology used to describe the phenomenon of political extremism: a polysemy problem, an inadequate equivalence between the terms extremism and radicalism, uncertainty about the role of violence in defining political extremism, and the fact that the term ‘radicalization’ is more closely associated with extremists rather than radicals. We describe how these problems affect both research on extremism and hinder its application and we propose potential solutions for such issues.

탄소저감 기술동향 분석 및 적용사례 연구 - 공원 및 숲을 중심으로

As the threat of climate change due to global warming intensifies, the world is increasingly experiencing extreme weather phenomena. Consequently, the importance of achieving carbon neutrality is expected to grow. Parks and forests play a crucial role in capturing and storing carbon, offering the most eco-friendly spaces that provide convenience and relaxation for users, as well as resilience for cities. They also serve as essential elements of carbon neutrality with their scenic and touristic value. This study focuses on these aspects, reviewing the trends in existing carbon reduction technologies and investigating carbon dioxide capture and utilization technologies that can increase the amount of carbon that parks and forests can capture. These technologies were classified according to six principles, identifying bioconversion technology as the most applicable and dry capture and mineral carbonation technologies as relatively superior. The study analyzes the current policy foundation and shortcomings for the commercialization and business application of these technologies, along with future improvements that need to be addressed. The purpose of this research is to establish a foundation for creating carbon-neutral parks and forests by identifying applicable technologies, assessing policy hurdles, and suggesting improvements, thereby enabling faster and more efficient carbon absorption and storage. According to the findings of this study, by identifying and expanding the application of technologies suitable for parks and forests and improving policies accordingly, it is expected that a more eco-friendly and efficient reduction of carbon dioxide can be achieved.

Assessing the Settlement and Deformation of Pile-Supported Embankments Undergoing Groundwater-Level Fluctuations: An Experimental and Simulation Study

The intensification of extreme weather phenomena, ranging from torrential downpours to protracted dry spells, which trigger fluctuations at the groundwater level, poses a grave threat to the stability of embankments, giving rise to an array of concerns including cracking and differential settlement. Consequently, it is crucial to embark on research targeted at uncovering the settlement and deformation behaviors of pile-supported embankments amidst changes in water levels. In tackling this dilemma, a series of direct shear tests were carried out across a range of wet–dry cyclic conditions. The results confirmed that the occurrence of wet–dry cycles significantly impacted the resilience of silty clay. Additionally, it was observed that the erosion of cohesion and the angle of internal friction initially diminished sharply, subsequently leveling off, with the first wet–dry cycle exerting the most substantial influence on soil strength. Employing a holistic pile-supported embankment model, simulations revealed that variations in the groundwater level, fluctuations therein, varying descent rates, and periodic shifts in the groundwater level could all prompt alterations in soil settlement between embankment piles and could augment the peak tensile stress applied to geogrids. In summary, the orthogonal experimental method was utilized, indicating that, in terms of impacting embankment settlement under periodic water-level changes, the factors ranked in descending order were the following: pile spacing, pile length, embankment height, and the height of the groundwater table.

Thunderstorm climatology of Slovakia between 1984–2023

Thunderstorms are among the most extreme meteorological phenomena that can cause widespread destruction and loss of life. Their occurrence varies significantly across different regions and times of the year. Despite various studies on thunderstorm activity across Central Europe, direct analyses based on data from the Slovak territory still need to be made available. Given Slovakia’s diverse natural conditions, there is a need for detailed knowledge about the frequency and spatial distribution of thunderstorms in this region. To address this knowledge gap, we analysed the frequency and spatiotemporal distribution of days with thunderstorm occurrences in Slovakia between 1984 and 2023, utilising climatological data from the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. We limited our analysis to data of days with close thunderstorms (thunderstorms occurring within 3 km of the monitoring station). Our findings reveal a significant variation in thunderstorm occurrences across Slovakia, with peak activity in the summer, especially in June and July. However, the spatial distribution of thunderstorms differed significantly across the country, with the highest frequency observed in mountainous regions and the east-central part of Slovakia. We found significant deceasing signals of the thunderstorm activity trends during the studied period, including analyses during the colder part of the year. Furthermore, our results underscore the critical role of synoptic situations in shaping these trends, where changes in certain atmospheric patterns were closely aligned with variations in thunderstorm frequency. The interaction between these synoptic conditions and regional topography was particularly evident, reinforcing the notion that topographical and environmental complexities substantially contribute to the observed thunderstorm distribution.

Urban territorial planning and integrated watershed management in comparative perspective. the Mendoza (Argentina) and Aconcagua (Chile) rivers

Extreme weather phenomena (heat waves, forest fires, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, warmer and more acidic oceans, hurricanes, droughts and floods, etc.), which are changing and intensifying as a result of climate change, are seriously affecting the lives of people in both urban and rural areas. One of the most urgent problems to be solved is water scarcity.It has been demonstrated that part of this meteorological drought is due to human actions and that the water variable must be integrated into urban and land use planning.The hypothesis of this research is that factors of different nature do not allow achieving territorial planning based on integrated watershed management,in the two investigated case studies: the Mendoza River Basin in Argentina and the Aconcagua River Basin in Chile.The objective of this study was to analyze the regulatory, institutional, governance, sustainability, and climate change components that hinder integrated water resource managementthrough a qualitative methodology. Both case studies reveal obstacles to achieving territorial planning based on integrated watershed management. The Chilean case presents even greater difficulties due to a regulatory and legal framework that still centers on private ownership of water.

Hybrid CMOD-Diffusion Algorithm Applied to Sentinel-1 for More Robust and Precise Wind Retrieval

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery presents significant advantages for observing ocean surface winds owing to its high spatial resolution and low sensitivity to extreme weather conditions. Nevertheless, signal noise poses a challenge, hindering precise wind retrieval from SAR imagery. Moreover, traditional geophysical model functions (GMFs) often falter, particularly in accurately estimating high wind speeds, notably during extreme weather phenomena like tropical cyclones (TCs). To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel hybrid model, CMOD-Diffusion, which integrates the strengths of GMFs with data-driven deep learning methods, thereby achieving enhanced accuracy and robustness in wind retrieval. Based on the coarse estimation of wind speed by the traditional GMF CMOD5.N, we introduce the recently developed data-driven method Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM). It transforms an image from one domain to another domain by gradually adding Gaussian noise, thus achieving denoising and image synthesis. By introducing the DDPM, the noise from the observed normalized radar cross-section (NRCS) and the residual of the GMF methods can be largely compensated. Specifically, for wind speeds within the low-to-medium range, a DDPM is employed before proceeding to another CMOD iteration to recalibrate the observed NRCS. Conversely, a posterior-placed DDPM is applied after CMOD to reconstruct high-wind-speed regions or TC-affected areas, with the prior information from regions characterized by low wind speeds and recalibrated NRCS values. The efficacy of the proposed model is evaluated by using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery in vertical–vertical (VV) polarization, collocated with data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Experimental results based on validation sets demonstrate significant improvements over CMOD5.N, particularly in low-to-medium wind speed regions, with the Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) increasing from 0.76 to 0.98 and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) decreasing from 1.98 to 0.63. Across the entire wind field, including regions with high wind speeds, the validation data obtained through the proposed method exhibit an RMSE of 2.39 m/s, with a correlation coefficient of 0.979.

Holonomies for foliations with extreme disintegration behavior

Given a foliation, we say that it displays “extreme disintegration behavior” if either it has atomic disintegration or if it is leafwise absolutely continuous and its conditional measures are uniformly equivalent to the leaf volume, which we call UDB property. Both concepts are related to the decomposition of volume with respect to the foliation. We relate these behaviors to the measure-theoretical regularity of the holonomies, by proving that a foliation with atomic disintegration has holonomies taking full volume sets to zero volume sets, and we characterize the UBD property with the holonomies having uniformly bounded Jacobians. Both extreme phenomena appear in invariant foliations for dynamical systems.

The Christian and the Philosopher: Defoe's The Storm Between Empiricism and Narrative

AbstractThis article examines the scientific background of Daniel Defoe's The Storm (1704). This work is a collection of letters on the Great Storm, a tempest which battered the south of England on 26–27 November 1703 causing casualties in the thousands and extensive damage. Like other extreme natural phenomena, the Great Storm was interpreted by many as divine warning. This article argues that, differently to Defoe's other works on the Great Storm, The Storm reconciles the traditional religious reading of catastrophes with recent breakthroughs in empiricist philosophy and early meteorology. In its concluding section, the article offers a reassessment of Defoe's interest in scientific ideas in The Storm so as to include early‐eighteenth‐century empiricism and examines Defoe's ambivalent attitude towards them.

Combining environmental-socio-economic data with volunteer geographic information for mapping flood risk zones in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China

Due to the occurrence of extreme weather phenomena, flooding caused by precipitation has become a frequent, widespread, and highly destructive natural disaster. For densely populated urban areas, efficient identification of people's emergency rescue needs and mapping of high flood risk areas are particularly important for decision makers to formulate disaster relief strategies. In this study, we employed a machine learning approach along with volunteer geographic information (VGI)1 data and environmental-socio-economic indicators to map the flood risk area in Zhengzhou. Firstly, the sentiment analysis tool based on artificial intelligence platform initially identified the public's emergency rescue needs. Secondly, the crowd-sourcing approach and geographical approach were used to evaluate the VGI data quality and the variable importance measures (VIMs)2 method to optimize the evaluation indicators. Lastly, the flood risk area was classified in four categories: flood environmental susceptibility, flood-induced risk, flood exposure risk, and flood mitigation capacity, subsequently resulting in a comprehensive risk map of Zhengzhou. The results showed that the accuracy of flood risk assessment increased from 85.7 % to 92.4 % after VGI quality evaluation. The most important indicators affecting flood risk assessment were population density, river system and nighttime light intensity. The comprehensive flood risk map better reflected the spatial distribution of high-risk areas in Zhengzhou. It allows emergency responders to quickly identify areas that require urgent attention.

Public Policies and Research in Brazil on Urban Sustainability and Water Resources

Objective: The objective is to investigate the national scenario of research on urban sustainability related to water resources in the face of national and international public policies. Theoretical Framework: The conception of the current urban infrastructure will not be sufficient to support the impacts of extreme phenomena predicted for the near future. The incorporation of sustainable technologies that incorporate the concept of ecosystem services is a perspective that envisions the resilience necessary for urban centers to accommodate the socio-environmental and economic structure in the future. Method: The methodology adopted for this research comprises data analysis using a quantitative and qualitative approach, exploring theses and dissertations on the urban sustainability of water resources between 2007 and 2000. Data collection was carried out through a survey of secondary data contained in the institutional repositories of four higher education institutions in Brazil. Results and Discussion: The results revealed that research on urban sustainability is growing in Brazil, but research on urban sustainability related to water resources is recent and few. These results are contextualized in the light of national and international government initiatives, highlighting the implications, relationships, discrepancies and limitations of the study.. Research Implications: The practical and theoretical implications providing insights that can influence research on water problems in urban spaces. These can imply paradigm shifts considering urban sustainability and the impacts of urbanization on water resources. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by presenting research gaps present in higher education institutions in Brazil, in the face of international and national government initiatives. The relevance and value are evidenced by the need for a paradigm shift in order to incorporate the principles of sustainability, specifically considering water resources, due to the growing demand and vulnerability to climate change.