Extreme Intensity Research Articles

Projected future changes in extreme precipitation over China under stratospheric aerosol intervention in the UKESM1 climate model

Abstract. Extreme precipitation events are linked to severe economic losses and casualties in China every year; hence, exploring the potential mitigation strategies to minimize these events and their changes in frequency and intensity under global warming is of importance, particularly for the populous subregions. In addition to global warming scenarios, this study examines the effects of the potential deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) on hydrological extremes in China based on the SAI simulations (G6sulfur) of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) by the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations. G6sulfur is compared with simulations of the future climate under two different emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5) and a reduction in the solar constant (G6solar) to understand the effect of SAI on extreme precipitation patterns. The results show that under global warming scenarios, precipitation and extreme wet climate events during 2071–2100 are projected to increase relative to the control period (1981–2010) across all the subregions in China. Extreme drought events show a projected increase in southern China. The G6sulfur and G6solar experiments show statistically similar results to those under SSP2-4.5 in extreme precipitation intensities of China in UKESM1. These results are encouraging. The efficacy of SAI in decreasing extreme precipitation events and consecutive wet days is more pronounced than that of G6solar when compared to SSP2-4.5. While both G6sulfur and G6solar show drying at high-latitude regions, which is consistent with our understanding of the spin-down of the hydrological cycle under SRM. Given the limitations of the current model and the small ensemble size, and considering that the hydrological effects are less beneficial than those indicated for temperature, it is recommended that further, more comprehensive research be performed, including using multiple models, to better understand these impacts.

Decadal trends and climatic influences on flash droughts and flash floods in Indian cities

Flash droughts/floods are extreme weather phenomena that are expected to become increasingly frequent and severe with the changing climate. Flash droughts result from a rapid decline in soil moisture, while flash floods occur due to a high extreme rainfall intensity over a short duration. This study analyzes the ERA5 reanalysis data (hourly temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation) from 1992 to 2022 to assess flash drought/flood attribute variations across fourteen Indian cities. Flash drought events are identified based on specific conditions using the obtained Soil Moisture Index (SMI) values. At the same time, we propose a novel approach to attribute flash floods by setting thresholds for precipitation and soil moisture.This study examines the frequency and trends of flash drought and flood events across India's various Köppen-Geiger climatic zones from 1992 to 2022. Jaipur and Dehradun show a statistically significant decrease in flash drought events with magnitudes of −0.0833 events/year and −0.0769 events/year, respectively. Conversely, Hyderabad exhibits a highly significant increase in flash flood events with a magnitude of 1.1851 events/year. Similarly, Bengaluru, Varanasi, and Vishakhapatnam also show substantial increases in flash flood events. These findings underscore the impact of climate change on flash droughts/floods, highlighting the necessity for sustainable strategies.

Forecasting extreme hourly rainfall in South Africa for disaster risk reduction: thresholds and return periods

Highest and percentile values determined for daily, hourly and 5-min rainfall data (July 1994 to June 2021) from 64 automatic weather stations across South Africa were used to define extreme hourly and 5-min rainfall intensity. Internationally, 99.9th and 99.99th percentiles are typically considered as thresholds for hourly and sub-hourly extreme rainfall when forecasting for disaster risk reduction assessments. In South Africa (SA), the average of the 99.9th percentile for hourly rainfall values is 29.9 mm/h. This represents a good indicator of extreme hourly rainfall in SA and is a useful threshold for forecasting flash floods. The average highest of the hourly rainfalls for SA, 53.9 mm/h, should be a good indicator of more extreme hourly rainfalls for the country. The average of the 99.99th percentile for 5-min rainfall values is 12.8 mm/5 min, which equates to 2.6 mm/min. Significantly, the 5-min rainfall data is used to establish South African categories based on rainfall intensity and total rainfall, whereby an event can be classified as a cloudburst, downpour or shower. Using the newly established local categories, the severe thunderstorm of 4 April 2000 at Hoedspruit that produced 132.2 mm in 25 min from an intensifying upper air trough system was classified as a cloudburst. Interestingly, the 66.2 mm recorded in 5 min during this event makes it the world record holder for all-time highest 5-min rainfall, passing the previous world 5-min rainfall record of 63.0 mm in 5 min recorded at Porto Bello, Panama, on 29 November 1911. Return periods of expected maximum daily, hourly and 5-min rainfall, based on yearly highest values, were also calculated for South Africa. This study presents expected maximums for 5-min rainfall in return periods of 10, 25, 50 and 100 years, a first for South Africa, which can inform strategies for disaster risk reduction.

A non-stationary bias adjustment method for improving the inter-annual variability and persistence of projected precipitation

Hydrological studies depend heavily on environmental variables, such as precipitation and resulting runoff, which exhibit highly seasonal and intermittent behaviour in semiarid basins. In these basins, the use of traditional methods to adjust biases in time series projections can lead to inaccurate results regarding the impacts of climate change. This study introduces a non-stationary bias adjustment methodology (NS) specifically designed for environmental variables characterized by sporadic events and substantial intensity variability, such as precipitation. The methodology involves establishing a probability threshold to adapt the occurrence of precipitation events and utilizes a quantile mapping method based on a non-stationary theoretical and parametric distribution to adjust biases associated with precipitation intensity. The NS method is applied to daily precipitation projections from seven regional climatic models under the RCP 8.5 scenario spanning 2006–2100, alongside historical concurrent data from 1970 to 2005. The present method is compared to the widely used quantile delta mapping approach (QDM), revealing significant differences in performance related to the distribution of precipitation events throughout the year and the behaviour of mean and extreme intensity values. Both approaches show reliable performance, with root mean square errors between the empirical distribution functions of the corrected hindcast time series and the observations being lower than or close to 1 mm for the percentiles smaller than 50th. The error increases with the percentiles, particularly at stations located at higher altitudes. In these locations, QDM doubles or triples the error obtained with the non-stationary approach for percentiles higher than 75th, reaching up to 34 mm. The proposed methodology demonstrates promising potential in reducing uncertainties associated with systematic errors in inter-annual precipitation variability. It is a first step to jointly apply a similar approach to all involved driving variables. Such methods are key to assessing hydrological responses and associated impacts in semi-arid mountainous basins all around the Globe.

Observation of molecular resonant double-core excitation driven by intense X-ray pulses

The ultrashort and intense pulses of X-rays produced at X-ray free electron lasers (XFELs) have enabled unique experiments on the atomic level structure and dynamics of matter, with time-resolved studies permitted in the femto- and attosecond regimes. To fully exploit them, it is paramount to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the complex nonlinear interactions that can occur at such extreme X-ray intensities. Herein, we report on the experimental observation of a resonant double-core excitation scheme in N2, where two 1σ core-level electrons are resonantly promoted to unoccupied 1πg*\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$1{\\pi }_{g}^{* }$$\\end{document} molecular orbitals by a single few-femtosecond broad-bandwidth XFEL pulse. The production of these neutral two-site double core hole states is evidenced through their characteristic decay channels, which are observed in good agreement with high-level theoretical calculations. Such multi-core excitation schemes, benefiting from the high interaction cross sections and state- and site-selective nature of resonant X-ray interactions, should be generally accessible in XFEL irradiated molecules, and provide interesting opportunities for chemical analysis and for monitoring ultrafast dynamic processes.

Prediction of 2D XC2N4 (X= Ti, Mo, and W) monolayers with high mobility as an encouraging candidate for photovoltaic devices

In this study, the impacts of strain and an electric field on the electronic and optical characteristics of monolayer XC2N4 (X=Ti, Mo, and W) were systematically examined using the density functional theory. The results corroborated that the dynamically, mechanically, and thermodynamically stable XC2N4 monolayers displayed semiconductor properties when the Heyd-Scuseria-Ernzerhof (HSE06) method was used. The TiC2N4 monolayer is shown to be a direct-gap semiconductor of 1.179 eV whereas the MoC2N4 and WC2N4 monolayers are indicated to have indirect bandgaps of 2.819 eV and 2.661 eV, respectively. Notably, the TiC2N4, WC2N4, and MoC2N4 monolayers possess comparatively high electron mobilities of 2776.85 cm2/V s, 1576.79 cm2/V s, and 1316.41 cm2/V s, respectively. The influence of strain on the bandgap of the MoC2N4 and WC2N4 monolayers led to a decrease in their gap, whereas in the TiC2N4 monolayer, the applied tensile strain caused an increase in the bandgap. Moreover, the compressive strain significantly caused a transition from semiconducting to metallic characteristics (zero band gap). The optical absorption spectra indicated the existence of three separate maxima for the XC2N4 (X=Ti, Mo, and W) monolayers with an extreme intensity of up to 2.0 × 105 cm−1. Interestingly, compared with pure monolayers, strained monolayers enhance the beginning of coefficient absorption in the visible range, with widespread range absorption in the ultraviolet and visible regions. Our results suggest that these monolayers can be promising options for nanoelectronic, optical and photovoltaic applications.

Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis

ObjectiveTo examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.DesignTwo stage time series analysis.Setting645 locations across 34 countries or regions.PopulationDaily...

Discovery of Multiple Light-Harvesting States of the Photosynthetic Protein PE545.

Cryptophytes are photosynthetic microalga that flourish in a remarkable diversity of natural environments by using pigment-containing proteins with absorption maxima tuned to each ecological niche. While this diversity in the absorption has been well established, the subsequent photophysics is highly sensitive to the local protein environment and so may exhibit similar variation. Thermal fluctuations of the protein conformation are expected to introduce photophysical heterogeneity of the pigments that may have evolved important functional properties in a manner similar to that of the absorption. However, such heterogeneity is averaged out in ensemble measurements and, therefore, has not yet been probed. Here, we report single-molecule measurements of phycoerythrin 545 (PE545), the prototypical cryptophyte antenna protein, in its native dimeric form. A conformational ensemble was resolved consisting of distinct photophysical states with different light-harvesting properties. Proteins that did not quench, partially quenched, or fully quenched absorbed light were observed. Light intensity increased the quenched-state population of the dimer, potentially as a mechanism to deal with the extreme light intensities found in aqueous environments. Cross-linking, which mimics local interactions, introduces this light-dependent functionality while also suppressing other conformational dynamics. The cellular organization can, therefore, actively modulate the protein conformation and dynamics, selecting for distinct levels of light harvesting. Thus, the complex conformational equilibrium provides an additional mechanism for cryptophytes and likely other photosynthetic organisms to optimize solar energy capture and conversion.

Rising Extreme Meltwater Trends in Greenland Ice Sheet (1950–2022): Surface Energy Balance and Large-Scale Circulation Changes

Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater runoff has increased considerably since the 1990s, leading to implications for the ice sheet mass balance and ecosystem dynamics in ice-free areas. Extreme weather events will likely continue to occur in the coming decades. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of extreme melting events is of interest. This study aims to analyze the evolution of extreme melting events across the GrIS and determine the climatic factors that drive them. Specifically, we have analyzed extreme melting events (90th percentile) across the GrIS from 1950 to 2022 and examined their links to the surface energy balance (SEB) and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Extreme melting days account for approximately 35%–40% of the total accumulated melting per season. We found that extreme melting frequency, intensity, and contribution to the total accumulated June–August (summer) melting show a statistically significant upward trend at a 95% confidence level. The largest trends are detected across the northern GrIS. The trends are independent of the extreme melting percentile rank (90th, 97th, or 99th) analyzed and are consistent with average melting trends that exhibit an increase in similar magnitude and spatial configuration. Radiation plays a dominant role in controlling the SEB during extreme melting days. The increase in extreme melting frequency and intensity is driven by the increase in anticyclonic weather types during summer and more energy available for melting. Our results help to enhance the understanding of extreme events in the Arctic.

Evaluating heat stress and occupational risks in the Southern Himalayas under current and future climates

The southern Himalayas, characterized by its dense population and hot, humid summers, are confronted with some of the world’s most severe heat stress risks. This study uses the hourly ERA5 dataset (1979–2022) and CMIP6 projections (2005–2100) to evaluate past and future heat stress based on the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). This has significant implications for the management of occupational workloads in the southern Himalayas. Heat stress levels are classified into 6 categories (0 to 5) using WBGT threshold intervals of 23 °C, 25 °C, 28 °C, 30 °C, and 33 °C. With heat stress surpassing level 3 for almost half of the time, people are constrained to engage in less than moderate workloads to ensure their health remains uncompromised. Flow-analogous algorithm is employed to contextualize the unprecedented heat stress case in the summer of 2020 and the associated atmospheric circulation patterns from historical and future perspectives. The results show that over 80% of the time in 2020, heat stress levels were at 3 and 4. The identified circulation pattern explains 27.6% of the extreme intensity, and such an extreme would have been nearly impossible in pre-21st-century climate conditions under the identified pattern. Future projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate that heat stress similar to what was experienced in 2020 will likely become a common occurrence across the southern Himalayas. Under a similar circulation pattern, the heat stress levels by the end of the 21st century would be elevated by at least one category compared to the climatic baseline in over 70% of the region, leading to an additional 120.5 (420.1) million daily population exposed to the highest heat stress level under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario.

Characterization of extreme rainfall changes and response to temperature changes in Guizhou Province, China

Different geographical zones have regional heterogeneity in underlying earth surface structure and microclimate which result in different evolution trends and their response to climate change varies in extreme rainfalls in these zones. In the Guizhou province of China, there are complex landforms, which lead to spatial redistribution of rainfall, frequent extreme rainfall, and disasters high risk of geologic disasters. Research on extreme climate in Guizhou mostly paid attention to its spatio-temporal characteristics and modeling, but lack of analysis on its characteristics of extreme rainfall variability and response to temperature changes under different subsurface conditions. This study investigated the characteristics of the extreme rainfall spatiotemporal and recurrence periods in Guizhou province and discussed the relationship between the response of extreme rainfall to temperature change. Daily rainfall data from 1990 to 2020 and 2021–2100 at 31 meteorological observation stations throughout the province were collected to calculate extreme precipitation. This research had the following results. (1) Both historical and future periods show an upward trend in extreme rainfall in Guizhou province, with a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the south and low in the north, high in the east and low in the west” and “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”, respectively; the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall under each recurrence period is consistent with the non-recurrence period. (2) Both historical and future periods show an upward trend in temperature in Guizhou province, with a spatial distribution consistent with that of the extreme rainfall in the corresponding period. (3) The change in extreme rainfall intensity with increasing temperature is almost always greater than the C–C rate for different periods and underlying earth surface structure; Extreme rainfall has a Hook response structure to temperature change, and the climate response structure shifts to the right with climate warming. The results of the study can provide a basis for decision-making on regional disaster prevention and mitigation in the context of temperature change.

Spatiotemporal variation and teleconnections of extreme precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin: insights for natural hazard assessment

ABSTRACT The study investigates trends and teleconnections of extreme precipitation events in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) within the Indian region, part of the crucial geo-ecological Hindu Kush Himalayan Mountain system. Utilizing high-resolution (10 km × 10 km) HAR data from 2002 to 2013, we analyzed 11 indices established by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) to observe variations in extreme precipitation at the monthly, seasonal, and annual time scale. The result shows an increase in dry and wet extreme precipitation frequency and intensity, increasing monsoon precipitation and a shift of winter precipitation, increasing continuous dry days. Using the APHRODITE daily (0.25° × 0.25°) data from 1952 to 2014, continuous wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis indicate significant periodicities and correlations with large-scale climate anomalies such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wavelet coherence analysis reveals that monthly extreme precipitation events significantly correlate with ENSO at a 3–5 years periodicity, while annual extremes show significant coherence with NAO at 8–10 years and over 16 years periodicities. The study highlights the impact of global climate change on regional precipitation and the need for adaptive water management policies to mitigate flood risks during the rainy season and address water scarcity in the dry season.

Exploring patterns in precipitation intensity–duration–area–frequency relationships using weather radar data

Abstract. Accurate estimations of extreme precipitation return levels are critical for many hydrological applications. Extreme precipitation is highly variable in both space and time; therefore, to better understand and manage the related risks, knowledge of their probability at different spatial–temporal scales is crucial. We employ a novel non-asymptotic framework to estimate extreme return levels (up to 100 years) at multiple spatial–temporal scales from weather radar precipitation estimates. The approach reduces uncertainties and enables the use of relatively short archives typical of weather radar data (12 years in this case). We focus on the eastern Mediterranean, an area of high interest due to its sharp climatic gradient, containing Mediterranean, semi-arid, and arid areas across a few tens of kilometres, and its susceptibility to flash flood. At-site intensity–duration–area–frequency relations are derived from radar precipitation data at various scales (10 min–24 h, 0.25–500 km2) across the study area, using ellipses of varying axes and orientations to account for the spatial component of storms. We evaluate our analysis using daily rain gauge data over areas for which sufficiently dense gauge networks are available. We show that extreme return levels derived from radar precipitation data for 24 h and 100 km2 are generally comparable to those derived from averaging daily rain gauge data over a similar areal scale. We then analyse differences in multi-scale extreme precipitation over coastal, mountainous, and desert regions. Our study reveals that the power-law scaling relationship between precipitation and duration (simple scaling) weakens for increasing area sizes. This finding has implications for temporal downscaling. Additionally, precipitation intensity varies significantly for different area sizes at short durations but becomes more similar at long durations, suggesting that, in the region, areal reduction factors may not be necessary for computing return levels over long durations. Furthermore, the reverse orographic effect, which causes decreased precipitation for hourly and sub-hourly durations, diminishes for larger areas. Finally, we discuss the effects of orography and coastline proximity on extreme precipitation intensity over different spatial–temporal scales.

Asymmetric effects of hydroclimate extremes on eastern US tree growth: Implications on current demographic shifts and climate variability.

Forests around the world are experiencing changes due to climate variability and human land use. How these changes interact and influence the vulnerability of forests are not well understood. In the eastern United States, well-documented anthropogenic disturbances and land-use decisions, such as logging and fire suppression, have influenced forest species assemblages, leading to a demographic shift from forests dominated by xeric species to those dominated by mesic species. Contemporarily, the climate has changed and is expected to continue to warm and produce higher evaporative demand, imposing stronger drought stress on forest communities. Here, we use an extensive network of tree-ring records from common hardwood species across ~100 sites and ~1300 trees in the eastern United States to examine the magnitude of growth response to both wet and dry climate extremes. We find that growth reductions during drought exceed the positive growth response to pluvials. Mesic species such as Liriodendron tulipifera and Acer saccharum, which are becoming more dominant, are more sensitive to drought than more xeric species, such as oaks (Quercus) and hickory (Carya), especially at moderate and extreme drought intensities. Although more extreme droughts produce a larger annual growth reduction, mild droughts resulted in the largest cumulative growth decreases due to their higher frequency. When using global climate model projections, all scenarios show drought frequency increasing substantially (3-9 times more likely) by 2100. Thus, the ongoing demographic shift toward more mesic species in the eastern United States combined with drier conditions results in larger drought-induced growth declines, suggesting that drought will have an even larger impact on aboveground carbon uptake in the future in the eastern United States.

Impact of surface ultraviolet radiation intensity on hospital admissions for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke: A large-scale database study using distributed lag nonlinear analysis, 2015-2022, in Harbin, China

ObjectivesOur aim is to evaluate the impact of surface ultraviolet radiation intensity on hospital admissions for stroke and to compare the correlation and differences among different subtypes of strokes. Materials and methodsWe collected daily data on surface ultraviolet radiation intensity, temperature, air pollution, and hospital admissions for stroke in Harbin from 2015 to 2022. Using a distributed lag non-linear model, we determined the correlation between daily surface ultraviolet radiation intensity and the stroke admission rate. Relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and attributable fractions (AF) with 95% CI were calculated based on stroke subtypes, gender, and age groups. ResultsA total of 132,952 hospitalized stroke cases (including hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes) were included in the study. We assessed the non-linear effects of ultraviolet intensity on hospitalized patients with ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes. Compared to the maximum morbidity benchmark ultraviolet intensity (19.2 × 10^5 for ischemic stroke and 20.25 for hemorrhagic stroke), over the 0-10 day lag period, the RR for extreme low radiation (1st percentile) was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.77, 0.96), and the RR for extreme high radiation (99th percentile) was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.77, 0.96). In summary, -4.842% (95% CI: -7.721%, -2.167%) and -1.668% (95% CI: -3.061%, -0.33%) of ischemic strokes were attributed to extreme low radiation intensity with a lag of 0 to 10 days and extreme high radiation intensity with a lag of 0 to 5 days, respectively. The reduction in stroke hospitalization rates due to low or high ultraviolet intensity was more pronounced in females and younger individuals compared to males and older individuals. None of the mentioned ultraviolet intensity intensities and lag days had a statistically significant impact on hemorrhagic stroke. ConclusionsOur study fundamentally suggests that both lower and higher levels of surface ultraviolet radiation intensity in Harbin, China, contribute to a reduced incidence of ischemic stroke, with this effect lasting approximately 10 days. This finding holds significant potential for public health and clinical relevance.

Evolution of regional rainstorm events in China's South-to-North Water Diversion Area, 1960–2022

The objective of this paper is to elucidate the patterns of evolution of regional rainstorm events (RREs) in a large-scale water resources allocation area. This is crucial for the safe operation of water transfer projects and water resources management. The Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Events (OITREE) method is employed to identify all RREs in the South-to-North Water Diversion Area (SNWDA) between the years 1960 and 2022. The results indicate that among the 1397 RREs identified, the extreme RREs are significantly more severe than other classes of rainstorm events. While the extreme intensity (Im) of RREs exhibits a decreasing trend, their frequency, comprehensive index (Z), maximum area (Am), summed area (As), and summed intensity (Is) all demonstrate increasing trends. Some of these indices (Z, Am, As, and Is) exhibit a strong periodicity of approximately 20 years, while the shortening of the decline period will result in more frequent rising periods of RREs. In the second year following the water transfer operation (2015), all RRE indices exhibit abrupt changes. Furthermore, the rainy season lengthens, with more frequent and extreme RREs occurring in July, which may have implications for the Middle Route of year-round water transfers. Spatially, the occurrence frequency of regional rainstorm days (RRDs) increases by 35.9% since the 21st century, while regional rainstorm intensity (RRI) increases by 11.8%. The high-frequency zones (HFZs) of RRDs are primarily located in the southeast, with intensity increases of at least 30%. While their location remains stable, there is a clear trend of northward spread. Following the water transfer, the frequency of RREs is higher in the Eastern Route, and the high-intensity zones (HIZs) appear for the first time in the Beijing area of the Middle Route. These findings provide a scientific understanding of regional rainstorms and serve as a reference for rainstorm disaster response and optimal allocation of water resources in water transfer projects.

Drought intensity and duration effects on morphological root traits vary across trait type and plant functional groups: a meta-analysis

The increasing severity and frequency of drought pose serious threats to plant species worldwide. Yet, we lack a general understanding of how various intensities of droughts affect plant traits, in particular root traits. Here, using a meta-analysis of drought experiments (997 effect sizes from 76 papers), we investigate the effects of various intensities of droughts on some of the key morphological root traits. Our results show that root length, root mean diameter, and root area decline when drought is of severe or extreme intensity, whereas severe drought increases root tissue density. These patterns are most pronounced in trees compared to other plant functional groups. Moreover, the long duration of severe drought decreases root length in grasses and root mean diameter in legumes. The decline in root length and root diameter due to severe drought in trees was independent of drought duration. Our results suggest that morphological root traits respond strongly to increasing intensity of drought, which further depends on drought duration and may vary among plant functional groups. Our meta-analysis highlights the need for future studies to consider the interactive effects of drought intensity and drought duration for a better understanding of variable plant responses to drought.

Shock‐induced pervasive remelting of Fe sulfides in the basaltic shergottite Northwest Africa 14672: A benchmark for shock stages S6/S7 on Mars

AbstractNorthwest Africa (NWA) 14672, the most highly shocked Martian meteorite so far, has experienced >50% melting, compatible with peak pressure >~65 Gpa, at a transition stage 6/7. Despite these extreme shock conditions, the meteorite still preserves a population of “large” Fe sulfide blebs from the pre‐shock igneous assemblage. These primary blebs preserve characteristics of basaltic shergottites in term of modal abundance, preferential occurrence in interstitial pores along with late‐crystallized phases (ilmenite, merrillite), and Ni‐free pyrrhotite compositions. Primary sulfides underwent widespread shock‐induced remelting, as indicated by perfect spherical morphologies when embedded in fine‐grained silicate melt zones and a wealth of mineral/glass/vesicle inclusions. Extensive melting of Fe‐sulfides is consistent with the decompression path experienced by NWA 14672 after the peak shock pressure at ~70 GPa. Primary sulfides acted as preferential sites for nucleation of vesicles of all sizes which helped sulfur degassing during decompression, leading to partial resorption of Fe‐sulfide blebs and reequilibration of pyrrhotite metal/sulfur ratios (0.96–0.98) toward the low oxygen fugacity conditions indicated by Fe‐Ti oxides hosted in fine‐grained materials. The extreme shock intensity also provided suitable conditions for widespread in situ redistribution of igneous sulfur as micrometric globules concentrated in glassy portions of fine‐grained lithologies. These globules exsolved early on quenching, allowing dendritic skeletal Fe‐Ti oxide overgrowths to nucleate on sulfides.

Cultural and Spiritual Adaptations to Extreme Weather Events of Ethnic Farming Communities of the Three Watersheds Situated at Different Altitudinal Locations along Agno River Basin, Benguet and Pangasinan, Philippines

Ethnic farming communities in Agno River Basin face climate stressors that threaten their agricultural production. This paper investigated and assessed the cultural/spiritual adaptations to climate variabilities and extremes of ethnic farming communities in Agno River Basin, Philippines. How the presence of these cultural/spiritual practices moderate or mitigate the effects of climate variabilities and extremes were likewise investigated. The climate-related hazards considered in this study which are pronounced in the river basin are prolonged and extreme rainfall intensity, typhoons and extreme winds, drought, flood and occurrence of pests and diseases. These hazards are becoming more frequent and intense resulting to limited agricultural production. This paper considered only the sectors of agriculture/socioeconomic, water and health. The descriptive method employed in this study was based on the works of Oppenheimer et al (2014); Saroar, Routray and Leal Filho (2015) and Brooks and Adgers(undated). The data-gathering activities were household survey using pre-tested questionnaires, focused group discussions and key informant interviews. The ethnic affiliations of the farming communities were I-Karao, Ibaloi, Kankanaey and Kalanguya tribes. Secondary data on changing rainfall and erratic temperature characteristics were consistent with the general perception of the ethnic farming communities. Cultural/ spiritual traditions of Ethnic farming communities in the Agno River Basin form part of their adaptations to climate extremes and variabilities. The greatest number of rituals and activities (5) such as childless couples raising plant materials, burning of rice straws and Alay, Leppas, Maepdesan, and Ibkas or maboteng. are dedicated to ensuring a good harvest. Canyao, Libot, and Begnas are undertaken to prevent the occurrence of hazards. On the other hand, Ubob, Bayanihan, and Sakdo are adaptations to mitigate the impact of climate extremes and variabilities. Both Canyao and Leppas are also thanksgiving activities while Tagainep or dream interpretation serves as a coping mechanism.

Modeling nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency curves for urban areas of India under changing climate

Enhancing stormwater drainage systems is paramount amid evolving climate dynamics, necessitating robust design and continual upgrades to address changing environmental conditions. The present work constructs the nonstationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for prominent urban areas of India. It develops 2313 nonstationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) models in annual and seasonal timeframes by integrating the influence of local and global climate-informed covariates, including time covariates. The work involves analyzing 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 hourly maximum rainfall series with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Among the 16 urban areas examined, there's a significant shift from stationary to nonstationary extreme rainfall intensities, marked by a 38.7% increase in shorter duration series with a 5-year return period in New Delhi and Visakhapatnam. AMO, DMI, GTA, and LTA in New Delhi play significant roles. Similarly, in Visakhapatnam, SST in Niño 3.4 and DMI are significant covariates influencing nonstationarity. Recently, in the 2023 monsoon, the 25-year flood wreaked havoc in New Delhi, Rajkot, Surat, and Visakhapatnam. Generating nonstationary IDF curves for the annual and seasonal timeframes offers a comprehensive approach to stormwater design and infrastructure upgradation and effective adaptation strategies across sixteen Indian cities.