Extreme Inflation Research Articles

Will the decrease in food availability affect food tourism? A historical and contemporary perspective: horizon 2050 article

¿Afectará la disminución de la disponibilidad de alimentos al turismo gastronómico? Una perspectiva histórica y contemporánea: artículo Horizonte 2050ResumenObjetivoEste artículo analiza las posibles consecuencias de las crisis alimentarias provocadas por la producción y distribución insostenibles de alimentos, así como el modo en que el rápido agotamiento de los recursos alimentarios puede afectar a la vida humana, a los destinos y a la industria del turismo gastronómico.Diseño/metodología/enfoquePara abordar la falta de investigaciones que examinen el impacto de las cuestiones de sostenibilidad y las crisis alimentarias en el turismo gastronómico, este estudio realizó una revisión crítica de la literatura y los informes relacionados con la agricultura, la producción de alimentos y la sostenibilidad.ResultadosLos conflictos mundiales, el cambio climático y las interrupciones en el suministro provocan la reducción de la disponibilidad y la calidad de los alimentos. El elevado precio de los alimentos y la energía en tales circunstancias agravará aún más la pobreza y retrasará el desarrollo de los destinos, lo que repercutirá negativamente en la sostenibilidad económica del turismo gastronómico. Además, los negocios locales verán limitada su capacidad de ofrecer una variedad de experiencias culinarias, lo que repercutirá negativamente en la experiencia global del turismo gastronómico. En este contexto, existe una necesidad acuciante de investigar los aspectos experienciales del turismo gastronómico, así como los retos actuales relacionados con las crisis alimentarias a múltiples niveles, los enfoques sostenibles, la calidad de los alimentos y los servicios alimentarios.Limitaciones/implicaciones de la investigaciónLas Naciones Unidas, la FAO, la OMS, UNICEF y otras organizaciones regionales e internacionales se refieren a las prácticas insostenibles y a las crisis alimentarias en diversos niveles. Se prevé que varios sectores, entre ellos la industria del turismo alimentario, se verán afectados negativamente por la situación actual. Sin embargo, los gobiernos no han adoptado un código de emergencia para abordar esta cuestión, excepto en algunas regiones que experimentan una inflación extrema y escasez de alimentos. Además de promover prácticas sostenibles, responder a las crisis mundiales y mejorar las experiencias turísticas culinarias y culturales, la gestión de las crisis alimentarias y los esfuerzos de sostenibilidad pueden tener un impacto significativo en la investigación futura, las aplicaciones prácticas y los resultados sociales.Originalidad/valorComo uno de los primeros estudios realizados en este campo, este estudio examina los efectos de la disminución de la producción de alimentos y los problemas de la cadena de suministro en la industria del turismo gastronómico.

Tale About Inflation Tails

We study probabilities of extreme inflation events in the Unites States and the euro area. Using a state-space model that incorporates information from a large set of professional forecasters, we generate the term structure of inflation forecasts as well as probabilities of future inflation for any range of inflation outcomes in closed form at any horizon. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation expectations increased materially amid heightened uncertainty about future inflation. Likelihood of significant departures of inflation targets in the longer term reached about 15 percent in the middle of 2022, increasing from near zero levels in 2020. Such an increase in the right tail of the probability distribution over future inflation outcomes drives an increase in inflation expectations and inflation risk premiums. Several popular external uncertainty measures are associated with variation in tail probabilities.

Deeply embedded wages: Navigating digital payments in data work

Many workers worldwide rely on digital platforms for their income. In Venezuela, a nation grappling with extreme inflation and where most of the workforce is self-employed, data production platforms for machine learning have emerged as a viable opportunity for many to earn an income in US dollars. Data workers are deeply interconnected within a vast network of entities that act as intermediaries for wage payments in digital currencies. Past research on embeddedness has noted that being intertwined in multi-tiered socioeconomic networks of companies and individuals can offer significant rewards to social participants, while also connoting a particular set of limitations. This paper provides qualitative evidence regarding how this “deep embeddedness” impacts data workers in Venezuela. Given the backdrop of a national crisis and rampant hyperinflation, the perks of receiving wages through financial platforms include accessing more stable currencies and investment outside the national financial system. However, relying on numerous intermediaries often diminishes income due to transaction fees. Moreover, this introduces heightened financial risks, particularly due to the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrencies as an investment. This paper evaluates the effects of the platformization of wages and its effect on working conditions. The over-reliance on external financial platforms erodes worker autonomy through power dynamics that lean in favor of the platforms that set the transaction rules and prices. These findings present a multifaceted perspective on deep embeddedness in platform labor, highlighting how the rewards of financial intermediation often come at a substantial cost for the workers in precarious situations.

Evaluating the Douglas-Cohen IRT Goodness of Fit Measure With BIB Sampling of Items.

Methods to detect item response theory (IRT) item-level misfit are typically derived assuming fixed test forms. However, IRT is also employed with more complicated test designs, such as the balanced incomplete block (BIB) design used in large-scale educational assessments. This study investigates two modifications of Douglas and Cohen's 2001 nonparametric method of assessing item misfit, based on A) using block total score and B) pooling booklet level scores for analyzing BIB data. Block-level scores showed extreme inflation of Type I error for short blocks containing 5 or 10 items. The pooled booklet method yielded Type I error rates close to nominal in most conditions and had power to detect misfitting items. The study also found that the Douglas and Cohen procedure is only slightly affected by the presence of other misfitting items in the block. The pooled booklet method is recommended for practical applications of Douglas and Cohen's method with BIB data.

Retailing in times of soaring inflation: What we know, what we don't know, and a research agenda

Inflation is back – with a vengeance. Following the highly disruptive years of the pandemic, the world has experienced inflation levels not seen for many decades. A “perfect storm” of underlying causes including expansionary monetary and fiscal policies during the pandemic, pent‑up demand, supply-demand imbalances and commodity-driven cost pressures due to unfavorable weather conditions in various regions and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, all conspired to steeply increase consumer price levels around the world. While current inflation levels are not unprecedented (they were even higher in the 1970s and 1980s), the decades-long period of extremely low inflation experienced in most countries means that current inflation rates continue to shock consumers, manufacturers and retailers. Equally, academic research has very little to say about how to conduct marketing in inflationary times, and that is why this paper presents an overview of what we know, what we don't know and what we argue we should know in the form of a research agenda.We first review key takeaways from prior inflation-focused research in the marketing literature, along with insights that could be derived from related studies that considered other causes of disposable-income reductions. However, given that the inflation literature is sparse, while insights from other forms of disposable-income reduction may not automatically generalize to the current inflationary setting, we identify various knowledge gaps along with a wide-ranging set of questions in need of further research in marketing and retailing. We do so, in the spirit of the Empirics-First approach to relevant knowledge generation, by identifying several frequently used retailer-initiated coping strategies. We subsequently circle back to pertinent prior literature to help with the interpretation of the observed patterns, identify best practices, and warn against potential pitfalls. We hope that this article will inspire cutting-edge research into the consumer-, retailer- and marketing consequences of extreme inflation, a worldwide problem that affects us all and is directly linked to the core role of retailing in the supply-chain channel.

Dynamic inflation hedging performance and downside risk: A comparison between Islamic and conventional stock indices

Inflation has attained the highest level in decades, with the Russian/Ukrainian war adding upward pressure on prices of energy and food. The recent war has exacerbated the already growth of consumer prices resulting from the COVID-19 and disrupted supply-chains. In a high-inflation environment where investors face inflationary pressures during their investment decision-making, it becomes increasingly important to diversify portfolios towards assets with potential inflation hedging abilities. This paper applies the dependence-switching copula and different dynamic downside risk measures to assess the role of Islamic stocks as a hedge for inflation, in comparison to their conventional counterparts. We use data for the period January 2000–October 2022, covering the periods prior to and post-COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. We consider an investor simply wishing to hedge inflation (or a “safety first” investor) and an investor having a more ambitious target real return. For each of the investor targets, we identify the optimal portfolio composition depending on various scenarios. Prior to the pandemic and the Ukraine conflict, Islamic stock indices exhibit the best hedging properties under their bull states, extreme inflation episodes and for an investor willing just to protect against inflation. In considering the post-2020 concerns, Islamic stocks’ diversification potentials are going to be more relevant, reinforcing their strategic benefits as risk mitigation assets. But by increasing the target of real return, it is shown that the weight assigned to the Islamic equities in the portfolio is smaller relative to the conventional stocks. The fund managers and financial analysts can rely on these findings in order to help investors reach a well-diversified portfolio and achieve an optimal risk reduction in an inflationary environment.

Sustainable development during the post-COVID-19 period: Role of crude oil

The COVID-19 outbreak has led to severe global inflation, potentially leading to significant alterations in the link between inflation and the crude oil market. On this basis, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of inflation on the crude oil market before and during COVID-19. Our findings imply that inflation has a significant positive effect on crude oil, especially during COVID-19. Most significantly, we further discover that crude oil markets are more impacted by extreme inflation shocks than normal shocks. Furthermore, the inflation-oil relation is mainly driven by extremely negative shocks. Finally, we investigate the forecasting efficiency of inflation during the epidemic, and the results prove that inflation provides useful information for forecasting crude oil volatility. Our results can help relevant market participants and policy-makers better advance their work in the postepidemic era and achieve global sustainable development.

Implications of the 2022 Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Nigerian Consumers – Way Out

Abstract: Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a major indicator used to track inflation rate and cost of living in a country’s economy. Nigeria consumers have over the years been subjected to economic hardship amidst abundant natural resources. Today, cost of living is very high and commodity prices have become unaffordable to many Nigerian consumers. The financial hardship as a result of harsh economic policies, mismanagement of the citizen’s collective commonwealth, corruption, and embezzlement of public fund have created extreme inflation with many consumers unable to afford regular meals in a day. This paper examines the implications of 2022 Q2 Consumer Price Index on Nigeria consumers. It reveals that in the Q2 of 2022, prices of food increased beyond the purchasing power of the average Nigerian consumers. Motor vehicle fuel and natural gas prices increased year on year beyond the reach of the average Nigerian consumers. The cost of electricity, prices for new and used vehicles, motor vehicle spare parts and equipment and even inter and intra state transportation all increased exponentially. A cursory examination of the Q2 of 2022 CPI shows that the purchasing power of consumers declined and the high poverty and unemployment a\level hurts the poor disproportionately. The study suggested among others that government should pursue realistic economic and customs regulatory reforms, deregulate the sale of petroleum products, deregulate power generation and distribution, reduce the level of corruption and enshrine social safety net initiatives especially for the poor. The study concluded that Nigeria consumers are poorer in Q2 of 2022 compared with the same level in preceding years. Keywords: Consumer: Consumer Price Index (CPI): Q2: Inflation: National Economy: Nigeria

Camel Controversies and Pork Politics in British Mandate Palestine

ABSTRACT World War II brought an industrial boom to British Mandate Palestine, but also extreme inflation and scarcity in essential commodities and foodstuffs. In Europe, fresh meat shortages created a market for meat preserves. In Palestine, meat shortages caused an unusual surge in marginal meats, namely, pork and camel. This article traces how pork and camel meat were bred or brought to wartime Palestine, the unusual visibility they gained, and the controversies they caused. Through the struggles of Palestinian Christian pig breeders and disputes over the Jewish consumption of pigs and camels, this article highlights the haphazardness of British provisioning politics as well as the evocative relationship between humans and the animals they rear and consume. Illustrating the decoding of kosher law in a new environment, camel controversies and pork politics illuminate a moment of transition for wartime Jews, from a religious minority in Europe to a settler-colonial minority in Palestine.

100 Million-year-old straight-jawed lacewing larvae with enormously inflated trunks represent the oldest cases of extreme physogastry in insects

Physogastry is a phenomenon occurring in Euarthropoda and describes an extreme inflation of (parts of) the trunk. It is best known from ticks, termite queens, or honey-pot ants, but can also be found in several other representatives of Euarthropoda. Physogastry has so far rarely been seen in the fossil record. We describe here an example of physogastry in two lacewing larvae (Neuroptera) enclosed in a single piece of Kachin amber (ca. 100 Ma old). We measured head and trunk ratios of different physogastric and non-physogastric representatives of Euarthropoda. Plotting these ratios shows that the new larvae, which display quite extremely inflated trunks, are very similar to ticks or honey-pot ants, but also to certain lacewing larvae of the group Berothidae (beaded lacewings). Outline analysis of head capsule and mouthparts (stylets) further suggests a position within Berothidae. Physogastry is presumed to be linked with living in confined spaces such as wood galleries or soil. Indeed, at least some larvae of Berothidae are known to live inside termite nests for part of their larval life phase, a habit the new larvae may also have had. The new record represents the oldest case of extreme physogastry in insects known to date.

유럽과 중앙아시아 체제전환국의 경제성장 요인 분석

This study From a long-term perspective, this study analyzed the economic growth factors of transition countries in Europe and Central Asia and the role of transition indicators such as privatization, liberalization, and structural reform in the process of economic growth. The countries analyzed are 29 transition countries in Europe and Central Asia for which the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has built a transition indicators. The difference from previous studies is that, first, the analysis was conducted using a longer period. Second, the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which showed marked differences in the economic growth and the transition index, were divided. As a growth regression analysis method, a fixed effect analysis using instrumental variables was performed. Growth regression analysis adopts economic growth rate as a dependent variable and includes macroeconomic variables and policy variables as explanatory variables. In this study, six transition indicators were added as explanatory variables to analyze the effect of the transition process on economic growth. The analysis period is 1992-2014, which is the period in which the transition indicators has been established. As a result of the analysis, in the analysis from 1992 to 2014, small-scale privatization among the transition indicators promoted economic growth. On the other hand, price liberalization was found to hamper the economic growth, which appears to be due to extreme inflation caused by monetary overhang at the beginning of the transition to a market economy. In addition, trade and foreign exchange system also promoted economic growth. In macroeconomic variables, government expenditure, trade openness, fertility rate and inflation showed significant results. In addition, the economic growth factors of CEEC and CIS are different, suggesting the need to distinguish between CEEC and CIS. In CEEC, governance and enterprise restructuring and competition policy led to economic growth, and among macroeconomic variables, trade openness promoted economic growth. On the other hand, trade and foreign exchange system, government spending and inflation were found to hinder economic growth. In CIS, among the transition in-dicators, small-scale privatization and trade and foreign exchange system played a positive role on economic growth. Among macroeconomic variables, an increase in the investment and trade openness played a role in promoting economic growth.

Extreme Inflation and Time-Varying Expected Consumption Growth

In a parsimonious regime switching model, we find strong evidence that expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding inflation as a second variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected inflation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics replicate the observed time variation in stock return volatilities and stock-bond return correlations. They also provide an alternative derivation for a measure of time-varying disaster risk suggested by Watcher [ Wachter J (2013 ) Can time-varying risk of rare disasters explain aggregate stock market volatility? J. Finance 68(3):987–1035]. implying that both the disaster and the long-run risk paradigm can be extended toward explaining movements in the stock-bond correlation. This paper was accepted by Kay Giesecke, finance. Funding: We gratefully acknowledge research and financial support from the Leibniz Center for Financial Research SAFE (formerly Research Center SAFE, funded by the State of Hessen initiative for research LOEWE). Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4451 .

Extreme Inflation and Time-Varying Expected Consumption Growth

Extreme Inflation and Time-Varying Expected Consumption Growth

ПРОБЛЕМЫ ТРАНСМИССИИ ДЕНЕЖНО-КРЕДИТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ В РЕГИОНАХ РФ

The article authors discuss the transmission of the effects of monetary policy on the economy of regions, and consider the factors that hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy in some regions of the Russian Federation. This applies to those entities of the federation where the banking system is not sufficiently developed, and monetary policy instruments do not find a response in the regional money markets. In this article the authors analyze the sensitivity of changes in rates for banking products to the changes in the key rate of the Bank of Russia. The features of inflationary processes and the reaction of rates on banking products in non-standard entities of the Russian Federation are studied. The underdevelopment of the banking system in the southern regions of the Russian Federation, extreme inflation rates (which are outside the confidence interval), the structure and parameters of loan portfolios – all of this shows the reasons for the weak transmission effects of monetary policy in the regional space.

Heuristic assessment of choices for risk network control

Data-driven risk networks describe many complex system dynamics arising in fields such as epidemiology and ecology. They lack explicit dynamics and have multiple sources of cost, both of which are beyond the current scope of traditional control theory. We construct the global economy risk network by combining the consensus of experts from the World Economic Forum with risk activation data to define its topology and interactions. Many of these risks, including extreme weather and drastic inflation, pose significant economic costs when active. We introduce a method for converting network interaction data into continuous dynamics to which we apply optimal control. We contribute the first method for constructing and controlling risk network dynamics based on empirically collected data. We simulate applying this method to control the spread of COVID-19 and show that the choice of risks through which the network is controlled has significant influence on both the cost of control and the total cost of keeping network stable. We additionally describe a heuristic for choosing the risks trough which the network is controlled, given a general risk network.

Does Inflation have Effect on Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Pakistan is one of the developing countries instead of possessing large amount of natural resources like mines, reserves of coal, adequate amount of minerals and oil, But, Pakistan is still deprived of basic necessities of life and suffering from extreme inflation in the country. Therefore, this study is an attempt to synopsis the impact of inflation on GDP of Pakistan. This study mainly focus on the inflation rate from the period 1980 to 2016, time series annual data has been employed in the study. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model technique is applied in the study in order to estimate and analyze the data. The study concludes that inflation indicates negative impact on the GDP of Pakistan and it can only be minimized if all resources of the country are properly allocated and fully utilized.

Enormous gill chambers of deep-sea coffinfishes (Lophiiformes: Chaunacidae) support unique ventilatory specialisations such as breath holding and extreme inflation.

Deep sea habitats tend to favor species with low energetic demands, and therefore we predict that deep sea fishes will have behavioral and morphological specializations of the gill ventilatory system to reduce the energetic cost of pumping water across the gills. However, it is difficult to study functional morphology of deep sea fishes due the lack of ability to conduct laboratory experiments with living fishes. For this study, we combined analysis of publicly available video recorded by remote-operated vehicles (ROV) with detailed anatomical study of museum specimens to document the functional morphology of the massive gill chambers that are observed in coffinfishes (Lophiiformes: Chaunacidae). Chaunacids, like other lophiiforms, exhibit highly specialised ventilatory anatomy such as an enlarged branchiostegal apparatus and restricted gill openings, but videos show them using this anatomy in a new and unusual way. We observed eight individuals ventilating extremely slowly at rates of 0.03-0.004 Hz, during which the gill chambers were full yet we saw no inhalation or exhalation for periods of 26 to 245 s. This holding breath behaviour has not been observed in any other fishes and is probably highly energetically efficient. This inflation of the gill chambers also increases body volume by up to 30%, making them more globose and difficult to be taken as prey, much like stomach inflation in pufferfishes (Tetraodontidae). We also used micro computed-tomography (CT) scans to document the enormous branchiostegal rays and associated muscles that support this unique behaviour.

Extreme Inflation and Time-Varying Consumption Growth

In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset pricing model with learning, these dynamics replicate the observed time variation in stock return volatilities and stock-bond return correlations. Furthermore, they provide an alternative way to come up with a measure of time-varying disaster risk in the spirit of Wachter (2013). Our findings imply that both the disaster and the long-run risk paradigm can be extended towards explaining movements in the stock-bond return correlation.

Credit risk stress testing: theory and practice of the Spanish evidence

This paper presents a new methodology to estimate banking system credit portfolio's losses. For this purpose, we used quarterly data for the period from 2000 to 2011 in order to estimate unexpected losses in the credit portfolio for four Spanish sectors under extremely bad conditions. Our results show that macroeconomic shocks (extreme inflation, gross domestic product and unemployment rates) affect negatively the Spanish banking system. The unusual thing about this study is that it was conducted with different sectors (industry, construction, agriculture and services). We find that construction was the most damaged sector. Our study will discuss the reasons for adopting stress tests and will provide solutions to prevent crises and to absorb losses especially in Spain.

Bitcoin and entrepreneurship: breaking the network effect

This paper explores the question of whether the market process is capable of bringing about a spontaneous monetary switch to a new currency in the presence of strong network effects of the incumbent currency as well as the absence of contingencies such as extreme inflation or political instability. It does so by examining current happenings around Bitcoin. It finds that two mechanisms stand out: the coordinating efforts of the profit-maximizing entrepreneur as well as the ability to use the old and the new currency simultaneously. Specifically, it finds that marginal decisions made by rational agents merely seeking to maximize net private benefit irrespective of the network effect, be it entrepreneurs or users of the new currency, are capable of setting in motion a switch to a new currency. Whether or not these mechanisms play out fully in the case of Bitcoin still remains to be seen.