Extreme Gradient Research Articles

ANPS: machine learning based server for identification of anti-nutritional proteins in plants.

Anti-nutrient factors are inherently present in almost all major crops, which impede the absorption of crucial vitamins and minerals upon human consumption. The commonly found anti-nutrients in food crops are saponins, tannins, lectins, and phytates etc. Currently, there is a lack of computational server for identification of proteins that encode for anti-nutritional factors in plants. Consequently, this study represents a computational approach aimed at distinguishing between proteins encoding anti-nutritional factors and those providing essential nutrients. In this work, machine learning algorithms have been employed to identify plant specific anti-nutrient factor proteins from protein sequences by using compositional features. Achieving a five-fold cross-validation training performance of 94.34% AUC-ROC and 94.13% AUC-PR with extreme gradient boosting surpasses the performance of other methods such as support vector machine, random forest, and adaptive boosting. These results suggest the proposed approach is highly reliable in predicting plant-specific anti-nutritional factor proteins. The resulting prediction models have led to the development of an online server named ANPS, freely available at https://nipb-bi.icar.gov.in .

Implementation of machine learning algorithms to screen for advanced liver fibrosis in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD): an in-depth explanatory analysis.

Background This study aimed to train machine learning algorithms(MLAs) to detect advanced fibrosis(AF) in MASLD patients at the level of primary care setting and to explain the predictions to ensure responsible use by clinicians. Methods Readily available features of 618 MASLD patients followed up at a tertiary center were used to train five MLAs. AF was defined as liver stiffness≥9.3 kPa, measured via 2-dimension shear wave elastography(n=495) or liver biopsy≥F3(n=123). MLAs were compared to Fibrosis-4 index(FIB-4) and NAFLD fibrosis score(NFS) on 540 MASLD patients from the primary care setting as validation. Feature importance, partial dependence, and shapely additive explanations(SHAP) were utilized for explanation. Results Extreme gradient boosting(XGBoost) achieved an AUC=0.91,outperforming FIB-4(AUC=0.78) and NFS(AUC=0.81, both p<0.05) with specificity=76% vs. 59% and 48% for FIB-4≥1.3 and NFS≥-1.45, respectively(p<0.05). Its sensitivity(91%) was superior to FIB-4(79%). XGBoost confidently excluded AF (negative predictive value=99%) with the highest positive predictive value (31%), superior to FIB-4 and NFS (all p<0.05). The most important features were HbA1c and GGT with a steep increase in AF probability at HbA1c>6.5%. The strongest interaction was between AST and age. XGBoost, but not logistic regression, extracted informative patterns from ALT, LDL-c,and ALP(p<0.001). One quarter of the false positives (FP) were correctly reclassified with only one additional false negative based on the SHAP values of GGT, platelets, and ALT which were found to be associated with a FP classification. Conclusions: An explainable XGBoost algorithm was demonstrated superior to FIB-4 and NFS for screening of AF in MASLD patients at the primary care setting. The algorithm also proved safe for use as clinicians can understand the predictions and flag FP classifications.

TECRR: a benchmark dataset of radiological reports for BI-RADS classification with machine learning, deep learning, and large language model baselines

BackgroundRecently, machine learning (ML), deep learning (DL), and natural language processing (NLP) have provided promising results in the free-form radiological reports’ classification in the respective medical domain. In order to classify radiological reports properly, a high-quality annotated and curated dataset is required. Currently, no publicly available breast imaging-based radiological dataset exists for the classification of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) categories and breast density scores, as characterized by the American College of Radiology (ACR). To tackle this problem, we construct and annotate a breast imaging-based radiological reports dataset and its benchmark results. The dataset was originally in Spanish. Board-certified radiologists collected and annotated it according to the BI-RADS lexicon and categories at the Breast Radiology department, TecSalud Hospitals Monterrey, Mexico. Initially, it was translated into English language using Google Translate. Afterwards, it was preprocessed by removing duplicates and missing values. After preprocessing, the final dataset consists of 5046 unique reports from 5046 patients with an average age of 53 years and 100% women. Furthermore, we used word-level NLP-based embedding techniques, term frequency-inverse document frequency (TF-IDF) and word2vec to extract semantic and syntactic information. We also compared the performance of ML, DL and large language models (LLMs) classifiers for BI-RADS category classification.ResultsThe final breast imaging-based radiological reports dataset contains 5046 unique reports. We compared K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayes (NB), Random Forest (RF), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Gradient-Boosting (GB), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) and Biomedical Generative Pre-trained Transformer (BioGPT) classifiers. It is observed that the BioGPT classifier with preprocessed data performed 6% better with a mean sensitivity of 0.60 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.391-0.812) compared to the second best performing classifier BERT, which achieved mean sensitivity of 0.54 (95% CI, 0.477-0.607).ConclusionIn this work, we propose a curated and annotated benchmark dataset that can be used for BI-RADS and breast density category classification. We also provide baseline results of most ML, DL and LLMs models for BI-RADS classification that can be used as a starting point for future investigation. The main objective of this investigation is to provide a repository for the investigators who wish to enter the field to push the boundaries further.

Predictions of groundwater PFAS occurrence at drinking water supply depths in the United States.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), known colloquially as "forever chemicals", have been associated with adverse human health effects and have contaminated drinking water supplies across the United States owing to their long-term and widespread use. People in the United States may unknowingly be drinking water that contains PFAS because of a lack of systematic analysis, particularly in domestic water supplies. We present an extreme gradient boosting model for predicting the occurrence of PFAS in groundwater at the depths of drinking water supply for the conterminous United States. Our model results indicate that 71 to 95 million people in the conterminous United States potentially rely on groundwater with detectable concentrations of PFAS for their drinking-water supplies prior to any treatment.

Enhancing transparency and fairness in automated credit decisions: an explainable novel hybrid machine learning approach

This paper uses a generalised stacking method to introduce a novel hybrid model that combines a one-dimensional convolutional neural network 1DCNN with extreme gradient boosting XGBoost. We compared the predictive accuracies of the proposed hybrid architecture with three conventional algorithms-1DCNN, XGBoost and logistic regression (LR) using a dataset of over twenty thousand peer-to-peer (P2P) consumer credit observations. By leveraging the SHAP algorithm, the research provides a detailed analysis of feature importance, contributing to the model’s predictions and offering insights into the overall and individual significance of different features. The findings demonstrate that the hybrid model outperforms the LR, XGBoost and 1DCNN models in terms of classification accuracy. Furthermore, the research addresses concern regarding fairness and bias by showing that removing potentially discriminatory features, such as age and gender, does not significantly impact the hybrid model’s classification capabilities. This suggests that fair and unbiased credit scoring models can achieve high effectiveness levels without compromising accuracy. This paper makes significant contributions to academic research and practical applications in credit risk management by presenting a hybrid model that offers superior classification accuracy and promotes interpretability using the model agnostic SHAP framework.

Investigating the Role of Cover-Crop Spectra for Vineyard Monitoring from Airborne and Spaceborne Remote Sensing

The monitoring of grape quality parameters within viticulture using airborne remote sensing is an increasingly important aspect of precision viticulture. Airborne remote sensing allows high volumes of spatial consistent data to be collected with improved efficiency over ground-based surveys. Spectral data can be used to understand the characteristics of vineyards, including the characteristics and health of the vines. Within viticultural remote sensing, the use of cover-crop spectra for monitoring is often overlooked due to the perceived noise it generates within imagery. However, within viticulture, the cover crop is a widely used and important management tool. This study uses multispectral data acquired by a high-resolution uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) and Sentinel-2 MSI to explore the benefit that cover-crop pixels could have for grape yield and quality monitoring. This study was undertaken across three growing seasons in the southeast of England, at a large commercial wine producer. The site was split into a number of vineyards, with sub-blocks for different vine varieties and rootstocks. Pre-harvest multispectral UAV imagery was collected across three vineyard parcels. UAV imagery was radiometrically corrected and stitched to create orthomosaics (red, green, and near-infrared) for each vineyard and survey date. Orthomosaics were segmented into pure cover-cropuav and pure vineuav pixels, removing the impact that mixed pixels could have upon analysis, with three vegetation indices (VIs) constructed from the segmented imagery. Sentinel-2 Level 2a bottom of atmosphere scenes were also acquired as close to UAV surveys as possible. In parallel, the yield and quality surveys were undertaken one to two weeks prior to harvest. Laboratory refractometry was performed to determine the grape total acid, total soluble solids, alpha amino acids, and berry weight. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost v2.1.1) was used to determine the ability of remote sensing data to predict the grape yield and quality parameters. Results suggested that pure cover-cropuav was a successful predictor of grape yield and quality parameters (range of R2 = 0.37–0.45), with model evaluation results comparable to pure vineuav and Sentinel-2 models. The analysis also showed that, whilst the structural similarity between the both UAV and Sentinel-2 data was high, the cover crop is the most influential spectral component within the Sentinel-2 data. This research presents novel evidence for the ability of cover-cropuav to predict grape yield and quality. Moreover, this finding then provides a mechanism which explains the success of the Sentinel-2 modelling of grape yield and quality. For growers and wine producers, creating grape yield and quality prediction models through moderate-resolution satellite imagery would be a significant innovation. Proving more cost-effective than UAV monitoring for large vineyards, such methodologies could also act to bring substantial cost savings to vineyard management.

Predicting long-term risk of sudden cardiac death with automatic computer-interpretations of electrocardiogram

BackgroundComputer-interpreted electrocardiogram (CIE) data is provided by almost all commercial software used to capture and store digital electrocardiograms. CIE is widely available, inexpensive, and accurate. We tested the potential of CIE in long-term sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk prediction.MethodsThis is a retrospective of 8,568 consecutive patients treated for acute coronary syndrome. The primary endpoint was five-year occurrence of SCDs or equivalent events (SCDs aborted by successful resuscitation or adequate ICD therapy). CIE statements were extracted from summary statements and measurements made by the GE Muse 12SL algorithm from ECGs taken during admission. Three supervised machine learning algorithms (logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, and random forest) were then used for analysis to find risk features using a random 70/30% split for discovery and validation cohorts.ResultsFive-year SCD occurrence rate was 3.3% (n = 287). Regardless of the used ML algorithm, the most significant risk ECG risk features detected by the CIE included known risk features such as QRS duration and factors associated with QRS duration, heart rate–corrected QT time (QTc), and the presence of premature ventricular contractions (PVCs). Risk score formed by using most significant CIE features associated with the risk of SCD despite adjusting for any clinical risk factor (including left ventricular ejection fraction). Sensitivity of CIE data to correctly identify patients with high risk of SCD (over 10% 5-year risk of SCD) was usually low, but specificity and negative prediction value reached up to 96.9% and 97.3% when selecting only the most significant features identified by logistic regression modeling (p-value threshold <0.01 for accepting features in the model). Overall, CIE data showed a modest overall performance for identifying high risk individuals with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values ranging between 0.652 and 0.693 (highest for extreme gradient boosting and lowest for logistic regression).ConclusionThis proof-of-concept study shows that automatic interpretation of ECG identifies previously validated risk features for SCD.

Impacts of micro/nano plastics on the ecotoxicological effects of antibiotics in agricultural soil: A comprehensive study based on meta-analysis and machine learning prediction

Micro/nano plastics (M/NPs) and antibiotics, as widely coexisting pollutants in environment, pose serious threats to soil ecosystem. The purpose of this study was to systematically evaluate the ecological effects of the co-exposure of M/NPs and antibiotics on soil organisms through the meta-analysis and machine learning prediction. Totally, 1002 data set from 38 articles were studied. The co-exposure of M/NPs significantly promoted the abundance (62.68 %) and migration level (55.22 %) of antibiotic contamination in soil, and caused serious biotoxicity to plants (−12.31 %), animals (−12.03 %), and microorganisms (35.07 %). Using 10 variables, such as risk response categories, basic physicochemical properties, exposure objects, and exposure time of M/NPs, as data sources, Random Forests (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) models were developed to predict the impacts of M/NPs on the ecotoxicological effects of antibiotics in agricultural soil. The effective R2 values (0.58 and 0.60, respectively) indicated that both models can be used to predict the future ecological risk of M/NPs and antibiotics coexistence in soil. Particle size (13.54 %), concentration (5.02 %), and type (11.18 %) of M/NPs were the key characteristic parameters that affected the prediction results. The findings of this study indicate that the co-exposure of M/NPs and antibiotics in soil not only exacerbates antibiotic contamination levels but also causes severe toxic effects to soil organism. Furthermore, this study provides an effective approach for ecological risk assessment of the coexistence of M/NPs and antibiotics in environment.

Investigating the Mechanisms Impacting Soil Ca, Mg, and Na in Wastewater Land Application Systems Using Machine Learning Models

ABSTRACTWastewater land application is a widely accepted solution for addressing global water crisis, particularly in arid and semiarid regions, but it may cause soil Ca, Mg, and Na accumulation and result in soil degradation. The objective of this study was to investigate the underlying mechanisms impacting soil Ca, Mg, and Na in wastewater land application systems using tree‐based machine learning models. Using data collected from previous field studies, decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting decision trees (XGBoost) models were developed to predict soil Ca, Mg, and Na in wastewater land application systems. XGBoost models showed the best performance, with R2 and RMSE values of 0.999 and 18.9 mg/kg, 0.999 and 3.2 mg/kg, and 0.912 and 104 mg/kg on the training data and 0.989 and 345 mg/kg, 0.925 and 56.1 mg/kg, and 0.908 and 112 mg/kg on the test data for soil Ca, Mg, and Na prediction, respectively. Permutation importance analysis reveals that initial soil Ca and electrical conductivity (EC) and total irrigation amount, initial soil Mg, total precipitation and initial soil EC, and initial soil Na, total irrigation amount and wastewater Na were the top three predictive variables for soil Ca, Mg, and Na, respectively. Partial dependence analysis demonstrates how soil Ca, Mg, and Na changed with the predictive variables, and indicates that wastewater irrigation caused soil Ca, Mg, and Na accumulation. This study highlights the need for sustainable wastewater land application management to control soil sodium adsorption ratio and mitigate the risks of land degradation.

Design and Use of a Stratum-Based Yield Predictions to Address Challenges Associated with Spatial Heterogeneity and Sample Clustering in Agricultural Fields Using Remote Sensing Data

Machine learning (ML) models trained with remote sensing data have the potential to improve cereal yield estimation across various geographic scales. However, the complexity and heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes present significant challenges to the robustness of ML-based field-level yield estimation over large areas. In our study, we propose decomposing the landscape complexity into homogeneous zones using existing landform, agroecological, and climate classification datasets, and subsequently applying stratum-based ML to estimate cereal yield. This approach was tested in a heterogeneous region in northern Morocco, where wheat is the dominant crop. We compared the results of the stratum-based ML with those applied to the entire study area. Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery were used as input variables to train three ML models: Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Multiple Linear Regression. The results showed that the XGBoost model outperformed the other assessed models. Furthermore, the stratum-based ML approach significantly improved the yield estimation accuracy, particularly when using landform classifications as homogeneous strata. For example, the accuracy of XGBoost model improved from R2 = 0.58 and RMSE = 840 kg ha−1 when the ML models were trained on data from the entire study area to R2 = 0.72 and RMSE = 809 kg ha−1 when trained in the plain area. These findings highlight that developing stratum-based ML models using landform classification as strata leads to more accurate predictions by allowing the models to better capture local environmental conditions and agricultural practices that affect crop growth.

Identifying cardiovascular disease risk in the U.S. population using environmental volatile organic compounds exposure: A machine learning predictive model based on the SHAP methodology

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of mortality globally. Environmental pollutants, specifically volatile organic compounds (VOCs), have been identified as significant risk factors. This study aims to develop a machine learning (ML) model to predict CVD risk based on VOC exposure and demographic data using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for interpretability. MethodsWe utilized data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2011 to 2018, comprising 5098 participants. VOC exposure was assessed through 15 urinary metabolite metrics. The dataset was split into a training set (70 %) and a test set (30 %). Six ML models were developed, including Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Decision Tree (DT), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Model performance was evaluated using the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC), accuracy, balanced accuracy, F1 score, J-index, kappa, Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), sensitivity (sens), specificity (spec) and SHAP was applied to interpret the best-performing model. ResultsThe RF model exhibited the highest predictive performance with an ROC of 0.8143. SHAP analysis identified age and ATCA as the most significant predictors, with ATCA showing a protective effect against CVD, particularly in older adults and those with hypertension. The study found a significant interaction between ATCA levels and age, indicating that the protective effect of ATCA is more pronounced in older individuals due to increased oxidative stress and inflammatory responses associated with aging. E-values analysis suggested robustness to unmeasured confounders. ConclusionsThis study is the first to utilize VOC exposure data to construct an ML model for predicting CVD risk. The findings highlight the potential of combining environmental exposure data with demographic information to enhance CVD risk prediction, supporting the development of personalized prevention and intervention strategies.

Predicting laboratory aspirin resistance in Chinese stroke patients using machine learning models by GP1BA polymorphism.

This study aims to use machine learning model to predict laboratory aspirin resistance (AR) in Chinese stroke patients by incorporating patient characteristics and single nucleotide polymorphisms of GP1BA and LTC4S. 2405 patients were analyzed to measure the Mutation frequency of GP1BA rs6065 and LTC4S rs730012. 112 patients with first-stroke arteriostenosis were prospectively enrolled to establish machine learning model. GP1BA rs6065 mutation frequency is 5.26% and LTC4S rs730012 is 14.78%. GP1BA rs6065 CT patients have more sensitivity to aspirin than CC genotype. Simple linear regression identified significant associations with age, smoking, HDL and GP1BA rs6065. Random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) demonstrated predictive capabilities for AR. Findings suggest pre-identifying GP1BA rs6065 could optimize aspirin treatment, enabling personalized care and future research avenues.

Machine learning-based prediction of sarcopenia in community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults: findings from the CHARLS.

Sarcopenia is a prominent issue among aging populations and associated with poor health outcomes. This study aimed to examine the predictive value of questionnaire and biomarker data for sarcopenia, and to further develop a user-friendly calculator for community-dwelling middle-aged and older adults. We used two waves (2011 and 2013) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to predict sarcopenia, defined by the Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia 2019 criteria. We restricted the analytical sample to adults aged 45 or above (N = 2934). Five machine learning models were used to construct Q-based (only questionnaire variables), Bio-based (only biomarker variables), and combined (questionnaire plus biomarker variables) models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used for performance assessment. Temporal external validation was performed based on two datasets from CHARLS. Important predictors were identified by Shapley values and coefficients. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), considering both questionnaire and biomarker characteristics, emerged as the optimal model, and its AUROC was 0.759 (95% CI: 0.747-0.771) at a decision threshold of 0.20 on the test set. Models also performed well on the external datasets. We found that cognitive function was the most important predictor in both Q-based and combined models, and blood urea nitrogen was the most important predictor in the Bio-based model. Other key predictors included education, haematocrit, total cholesterol, drinking, number of chronic diseases, and instrumental activities of daily living score. Our findings offer a potential for early screening and targeted prevention of sarcopenia among middle-aged and older adults in the community setting.

Understanding of Wetting Mechanism Toward the Sticky Powder and Machine Learning in Predicting Granule Size Distribution Under High Shear Wet Granulation.

The granulation of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has attracted widespread attention, there is limited research on the high shear wet granulation (HSWG) and wetting mechanisms of sticky TCM powders, which profoundly impact the granule size distribution (GSD). Here we investigate the wetting mechanism of binders and the influence of various parameters on the GSD of HSWG and establish a GSD prediction model. Permeability and contact angle experiments combined with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were used to explore the wetting mechanism of hydroalcoholic solutions with TCM powder. Machine learning (ML) was employed to build a GSD prediction model, feature importance explained the influence of features on the predictive performance of the model, and correlation analysis was used to assess the influence of various parameters on GSD. The results show that water increases powder viscosity, forming high-viscosity aggregates, while ethanol primarily acted as a wetting agent. The contact angle of water on the powder bed was the largest and decreased with an increase in ethanol concentration. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) outperformed other models in overall prediction accuracy in GSD prediction, the binder had the greatest impact on the predictions and GSD, adjusting the amount and concentration of adhesive can control the adhesion and growth of granules while the impeller speed had the least influence on granulation. The study elucidates the wetting mechanism and provides a GSD prediction model, along with the impact of material properties, formulation, and process parameters obtained, aiding the intelligent manufacturing and formulation development of TMC.

Prediction of in-hospital mortality risk for patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction after primary PCI based on predictors selected by GRACE score and two feature selection methods

IntroductionAccurate in-hospital mortality prediction following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is crucial for clinical decision-making. Machine Learning (ML) and Data Mining methods have shown promise in improving medical prognosis accuracy.MethodsWe analyzed a dataset of 4,677 patients from the Regional Vascular Center of Primorsky Regional Clinical Hospital No. 1 in Vladivostok, collected between 2015 and 2021. We utilized Extreme Gradient Boosting, Histogram Gradient Boosting, Light Gradient Boosting, and Stochastic Gradient Boosting for mortality risk prediction after primary PCI in patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Model selection was performed using Monte Carlo Cross-validation. Feature selection was enhanced through Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). We further developed hybrid models using Augmented Grey Wolf Optimizer (AGWO), Bald Eagle Search Optimization (BES), Golden Jackal Optimizer (GJO), and Puma Optimizer (PO), integrating features selected by these methods with the traditional GRACE score.ResultsThe hybrid models demonstrated superior prediction accuracy. In scenario (1), utilizing GRACE scale features, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) models optimized with BES achieved Recall values of 0.944 and 0.954, respectively. In scenarios (2) and (3), employing SHAP and RFE-selected features, the LGB models attained Recall values of 0.963 and 0.977, while the XGB models achieved 0.978 and 0.99.DiscussionThe study indicates that ML models, particularly the XGB optimized with BES, can outperform the conventional GRACE score in predicting in-hospital mortality. The hybrid models' enhanced accuracy presents a significant step forward in risk assessment for patients post-PCI, offering a potential alternative to existing clinical tools. These findings underscore the potential of ML in optimizing patient care and outcomes in cardiovascular medicine.

Mobile Application and Machine Learning-Driven Scheme for Intelligent Diabetes Progression Analysis and Management Using Multiple Risk Factors

Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that affects over 500 million people worldwide, necessitating personalized health management programs for effective long-term control. Among the various biomarkers, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is a crucial indicator for monitoring long-term blood glucose levels and assessing diabetes progression. This study introduces an innovative approach to diabetes management by integrating a mobile application and machine learning. We designed and implemented an intelligent application capable of collecting comprehensive data from diabetic patients, creating a novel diabetes dataset named DiabMini with 127 features of 88 instances, including medical information, personal information, and detailed nutrient intake and lifestyle. Leveraging the DiabMini, we focused the analysis on HbA1c dynamics due to their clinical significance in tracking diabetes progression. We developed a stacking model combining eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support Vector Classifier (SVC), Extra Trees (ET), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) to explore the impact of various influencing factors on HbA1c dynamics, which achieved a classification accuracy of 94.23%. Additionally, we applied SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to visualize the contributions of risk factors to HbA1c dynamics, thus clarifying the differential impacts of these factors on diabetes progression. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the potential of integrating mobile health applications with machine learning to enhance personalized diabetes management.

Morphometric assessment and soil erosion susceptibility maping using ensemble extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm: a study for Hunza-Nagar catchment, Northern Pakistan

Morphometric assessment and soil erosion susceptibility maping using ensemble extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm: a study for Hunza-Nagar catchment, Northern Pakistan

Forecasting trends in food security with real time data

Early warning systems are an essential tool for effective humanitarian action. Advance warnings on impending disasters facilitate timely and targeted response which help save lives and livelihoods. In this work we present a quantitative methodology to forecast levels of food consumption for 60 consecutive days, at the sub-national level, in four countries: Mali, Nigeria, Syria, and Yemen. The methodology is built on publicly available data from the World Food Programme’s global hunger monitoring system which collects, processes, and displays daily updates on key food security metrics, conflict, weather events, and other drivers of food insecurity. In this study we assessed the performance of various models including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Network, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Reservoir Computing (RC), by comparing their Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) metrics. Our findings highlight Reservoir Computing as a particularly well-suited model in the field of food security given both its notable resistance to over-fitting on limited data samples and its efficient training capabilities. The methodology we introduce establishes the groundwork for a global, data-driven early warning system designed to anticipate and detect food insecurity.

A portable and low-cost optical device for pigment-based taxonomic classification of microalgae using machine learning

The proliferation of certain phytoplankton species may lead to harmful algal blooms (HABs) that can affect living resources and human health. Therefore, an accurate identification of phytoplankton populations is essential for the sustainable management of some activities relevant for the blue economy, such as aquaculture, being also relevant for environmental monitoring and marine research purposes. Microalgae taxonomic discrimination, based on their pigment composition, is a versatile and promising technique to detect and identify potential HABs. In this work, a portable and low-cost device for taxonomic identification of microalgae, based on the pigment composition of 16 species belonging to 6 different phyla, was developed. It uses the fluorescence intensity signal emitted by each species at three wavelengths (575 nm, 680 nm and 730 nm) when excited at five wavelengths (405 nm, 450 nm, 500 nm, 520 nm and 623 nm) to create a fluorescence signature for each species. Furthermore, several machine learning classifiers were studied using this fluorescence signature as features to train and classify each species according to their respective taxonomic group. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifier was able to correctly predict microalgae monocultures with 97 % accuracy at the phylum level and 92 % accuracy at the order level. The obtained results confirm the potential of this technique for fast, accurate and low-cost identification of microalgae.

Hybrid Machine Learning Approach to Zero-Inflated Data Improves Accuracy of Dengue Prediction.

Spatiotemporal dengue forecasting using machine learning (ML) can contribute to the development of prevention and control strategies for impending dengue outbreaks. However, training data for dengue incidence may be inflated with frequent zero values because of the rarity of cases, which lowers the prediction accuracy. This study aimed to understand the influence of spatiotemporal resolutions of data on the accuracy of dengue incidence prediction using ML models, to understand how the influence of spatiotemporal resolution differs between quantitative and qualitative predictions of dengue incidence, and to improve the accuracy of dengue incidence prediction with zero-inflated data. We predicted dengue incidence at six spatiotemporal resolutions and compared their prediction accuracy. Six ML algorithms were compared: generalized additive models, random forests, conditional inference forest, artificial neural networks, support vector machines and regression, and extreme gradient boosting. Data from 2009 to 2012 were used for training, and data from 2013 were used for model validation with quantitative and qualitative dengue variables. To address the inaccuracy in the quantitative prediction of dengue incidence due to zero-inflated data at fine spatiotemporal scales, we developed a hybrid approach in which the second-stage quantitative prediction is performed only when/where the first-stage qualitative model predicts the occurrence of dengue cases. At higher resolutions, the dengue incidence data were zero-inflated, which was insufficient for quantitative pattern extraction of relationships between dengue incidence and environmental variables by ML. Qualitative models, used as binary variables, eased the effect of data distribution. Our novel hybrid approach of combining qualitative and quantitative predictions demonstrated high potential for predicting zero-inflated or rare phenomena, such as dengue. Our research contributes valuable insights to the field of spatiotemporal dengue prediction and provides an alternative solution to enhance prediction accuracy in zero-inflated data where hurdle or zero-inflated models cannot be applied.