Extreme El Nino Southern Oscillation Research Articles

ENSO Modulation: Is It Decadally Predictable?

Abstract Observations and climate simulations exhibit epochs of extreme El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior that can persist for decades. Previous studies have revealed a wide range of ENSO responses to forcings from greenhouse gases, aerosols, and orbital variations, but they have also shown that interdecadal modulation of ENSO can arise even without such forcings. The present study examines the predictability of this intrinsically generated component of ENSO modulation, using a 4000-yr unforced control run from a global coupled GCM [GFDL Climate Model, version 2.1 (CM2.1)] with a fairly realistic representation of ENSO. Extreme ENSO epochs from the unforced simulation are reforecast using the same (“perfect”) model but slightly perturbed initial conditions. These 40-member reforecast ensembles display potential predictability of the ENSO trajectory, extending up to several years ahead. However, no decadal-scale predictability of ENSO behavior is found. This indicates that multidecadal epochs of extreme ENSO behavior can arise not only intrinsically but also delicately and entirely at random. Previous work had shown that CM2.1 generates strong, reasonably realistic, decadally predictable high-latitude climate signals, as well as tropical and extratropical decadal signals that interact with ENSO. However, those slow variations appear not to lend significant decadal predictability to this model’s ENSO behavior, at least in the absence of external forcings. While the potential implications of these results are sobering for decadal predictability, they also offer an expedited approach to model evaluation and development, in which large ensembles of short runs are executed in parallel, to quickly and robustly evaluate simulations of ENSO. Further implications are discussed for decadal prediction, attribution of past and future ENSO variations, and societal vulnerability.

ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

AbstractImprovements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945–2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Niño-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945–2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Niño years to the northwest in La Niña years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Niña. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July–October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis– and track–ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Niña–year increases.

Interdecadal Amplitude Modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Its Impact on Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability*

Abstract The amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) displays pronounced interdecadal modulations in observations. The mechanisms for the amplitude modulation are investigated using a 2000-yr preindustrial control integration from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). ENSO amplitude modulation is highly correlated with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), which features equatorial zonal dipoles in sea surface temperature (SST) and subsurface temperature along the thermocline. Experiments with an ocean general circulation model indicate that both interannual and decadal-scale wind variability are required to generate decadal-scale tropical Pacific temperature anomalies at the sea surface and along the thermocline. Even a purely interannual and sinusoidal wind forcing can produce substantial decadal-scale effects in the equatorial Pacific, with SST cooling in the west, subsurface warming along the thermocline, and enhanced upper-ocean stratification in the east. A mechanism is proposed by which residual effects of ENSO could serve to alter subsequent ENSO stability, possibly contributing to long-lasting epochs of extreme ENSO behavior via a coupled feedback with TPDV.

Power of teleconnection patterns on precipitation and streamflow variability of upper Medjerda Basin

AbstractThe potential impact of large‐scale climate patterns of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in modulating precipitation regimes across the upper Medjerda River Basin in northern Tunisia is assessed. As the case study is located in the Mediterranean region (North Africa), the regional Mediterranean Oscillation (MOAC) and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) are also investigated. Six precipitation time series are also observed. Strong correlations are identified between ENSO and precipitation series at lag − 2 years. Extreme ENSO years are reflected in the precipitation as periods of severe water deficit or excess. Wavelet spectra driven to seasonal precipitation reveal that precipitation is organized in preferred bands with distinct activities in each scale band, and that most of the precipitation variance is explained by the 2–8‐year scales. Using cross‐wavelet analysis, climate patterns that are most associated with precipitation variability are identified. The analysis demonstrates also that precipitations are simultaneously controlled by different climate patterns. Particularly, the influence of ENSO on precipitation is stronger as well as that of PDO and MO. Results indicate that precipitation variability at the upper Medjerda River Basin is associated with global‐scale ENSO processes at the annual as well as seasonal time scales and is aligned with changing phase difference between periods. Moreover, separation of annual precipitation into two seasons reveals statistically significant associations between El Niño and La Niña phases of ENSO with dry and wet seasonal precipitation, respectively. Complementing this, three streamflow records with length up to 104 years are used, and relationships with rainfall series are analysed using wavelets. A strong coherence between rainfall and streamflow observations is found and justifies undertaking the study of climate‐streamflow relationships where ENSO exhibits potential impacts on annual streamflows. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Coping Strategies to Deal with Environmental Variability and Extreme Climatic Events in the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery

The Peruvian anchovy fishery is the largest worldwide in terms of catches. The fishery started during the mid 1950s, and since then it has been highly dependent on natural stock fluctuations, due to the sensitivity of anchovy stocks to ocean-climate variability. The main driver of anchovy stock variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and three extreme ENSO warm events were recorded in 1972–1973, 1983–1984 and 1997–1998. This study investigates the evolution of coping strategies developed by the anchovy fisheries to deal with climate variability and extreme ENSO events. Results showed eight coping strategies to reduce impacts on the fishery. These included: decentralized installation of anchovy processing factories; simultaneous ownership of fishing fleet and processing factories; use of low-cost unloading facilities; opportunistic utilization of invading fish populations; low cost intensive monitoring; rapid flexible management; reduction of fishmeal price uncertainty through controlled production based on market demand; and decoupling of fishmeal prices from those of other protein-rich feed substitutes like soybean. This research shows that there are concrete lessons to be learned from successful adaptations to cope with climate change-related extreme climatic events that impact the supply of natural resources. The lessons can contribute to improved policies for coping with climate change in the commercial fishery sector.

Modelling the effects of land‐use/land‐cover changes on the near‐surface atmosphere in southern South America

AbstractA fully coupled atmospheric‐biospheric regional climate model, GEMRAMS, was used to evaluate potential effects of land‐use/land‐cover changes (LULCC) on near‐surface atmosphere over a southern South American domain at seasonal time scales. In GEMRAMS, leaf area index and canopy conductance are computed based on modelled temperature, solar radiation, and the water status of the soil and air, allowing a two‐way interaction between canopy and atmosphere. Several austral spring‐early summer simulations were conducted using land cover representing current (i.e. agricultural landscape), natural (i.e. before European settlement), and afforestation scenarios for three periods associated with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. The shift to agriculture resulted in a generalized increase in albedo, reducing the available energy at the near‐surface. (Correction added on 21 September 2011 after original online publication: in the preceding sentence the word ‘decrease’ was corrected to ‘increase’.) The energy partitioning between latent and sensible heat fluxes changed, leading to distinct temperature responses. A shift from grass to agriculture led to cooler and wetter near‐surface atmospheric conditions. Warmer temperatures resulted from the conversion of wooded grasslands or forest to agriculture. The LULCC‐induced signal was spatially heterogeneous and with a seasonal component associated with vegetation phenology. A significant decrease in maximum temperatures in the southern and central Pampas led to a decrease in the diurnal temperature range. Basing on some observational studies in this region our results suggest a potential strong influence of LULCC on the maximum temperatures in central Argentina in summer. Afforestation resulted overall in cooler temperatures. For both LULCC scenarios the direction of the energy fluxes and temperature changes remained in general the same in two extreme ENSO years, although for some vegetation conversions the signal reversed direction. Overall, the impacts were enhanced during a dry year, but the response also depended on the vegetation types involved in the conversion. The effects on precipitation were insignificant in the agriculture‐conversion scenario and a general increase was found in the afforested scenario. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Variações do ciclo anual da temperatura da superfície do mar no pacífico tropical

Variações do ciclo anual da Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM) do Pacífico Tropical entre 20ºN e 20ºS, para o período de 1854 a 2006, foram estudadas usando análises de ondaletas. O estudo mostrou que o ciclo anual, considerando-se a variância para em torno de 1 ano, de TSM possui variabilidade interanual e interdecenal. Existem indicações de que a maior parte das variações interanuais no ciclo anual de TSM das áreas do hemisfério Norte (HN) e do hemisfério Sul (HS), está relacionada ao ciclo do El Niño-Oscilação Sul (ENOS). A maioria dos picos da Média por Escalas da Potência localizada da ondaleta (MEPO) para a escala entre 0,7 e 1,2 anos, para as áreas de ambos os hemisférios, coincide com extremos do ENOS. Os Espectros da Potência Global (EPGs) mostraram variância máxima do ciclo anual de TSM entre 120ºE e 140ºE na faixa do HN (entre equador e 20ºN), e variância crescente da linha da data para leste com o máximo entre 100ºW e 80ºW na faixa do HS (entre equador e 20ºS). Portanto, o ciclo anual de TSM apresenta variações entre os HN e HS com a máxima variância localizando-se no hemisfério leste para o HN e no hemisfério oeste para o HS.

Spring predictability barrier of ENSO events from the perspective of an ensemble prediction system

Based on an ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) ensemble prediction system (EPS), the seasonal variations in the predictability of ENSO are examined in both a deterministic and a probabilistic sense. For the deterministic prediction skills, the skills of the ensemble-mean are sensitive to the month in which the forecast was initiated. The anomaly correlations decrease rapidly during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) spring, and the root mean square (RMS) errors have the largest values and the fastest growth rates initialized before and during the NH spring. However, the probabilistic predictions based on the verification methods of the relative operating character (ROC) curve and area both show that there are no strong seasonal variations for the two extreme (warm and cold) ENSO events. For the near-normal events, the seasonal variations of the probabilistic skills are much more obvious, and the ROC areas of the ensemble forecasts made in the spring are clearly smaller than those of the ensemble forecasts that began during other seasons. At the same time, the probabilistic prediction skills of the EPS for all three events that only consider the initial perturbations are also clearly sensitive to the initial months. This was indicated by the fact that the most rapid decrease of the ROC area skill occurs as the hindcasts proceed through the spring season. A further signal-to-noise ratio analysis reveals that potential sources of the predictability barrier in the probabilistic skills for the EPS are namely that the spring is the period when stochastic initial error effects can be expected to strongly degrade forecast skill, and that small predicted signals can render the system noisier by further limiting the predictability. However, reasonable considerations of the model-error perturbations during the ensemble forecast process can alleviate the barrier caused by initial uncertainties through coordinately simulating the seasonal variations of the forecast uncertainty in order to significantly improve the probabilistic prediction skills and then to disorder the seasonal predictability related to the SPB.

A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change

Reconstructions of past climate are important for providing a historical context for evaluating the nature of 20th century climate change. Here, a number of percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A total of 92 (82) El Nino (La Nina) events were reconstructed since A.D. 1525. Significantly, we introduce the most comprehensive La Nina event record compiled to date. This annual record of ENSO events can now be used for independent verification of climate model simulations, reconstructions of ENSO indices and as a chronological control for archaeologists/social scientists interested in human responses to past climate events. Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO recon- struction, approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events (i.e. both El Nino and La Nina phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states. As evidence of stresses on water supply, agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority.

History of equatorial vegetation fires and fire research in Southeast Asia before the 1997–98 episode: A reconstruction of creeping environmental changes

Charcoal fragments in forest soils give evidence of prehistoric and historic natural and anthropogenic wildfires in the equatorial rainforests and in seasonal monsoon forests of continental and insular South Asia. Conditions favourable for the occurrence of historic and contemporary rainforest fires are associated with droughts, especially during dry spells caused by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Historic land-use fires and wildfires can be reconstructed from a number of narrative reports, including documents that reveal drought and famine. In the eastern part of Borneo prehistoric and historic records of coal fires reveal a unique natural source of wildfires. Starting with modern transmigration programs and systematic conversion of primary and secondary vegetation, including peat-swamp ecosystems, into farmland and industrial plantations, the use of fire as a land-clearing tool escalated in the 1990s. During droughts land-clearing fires additionally contribute to wildfires. A detailed study of the ecological consequences of the episode of land-use fires and wildfires of 1982–1983 was conducted on an area of 2.7 million ha of dipterocarp rainforest in East Kalimantan. The results show that dipterocarps are highly susceptible to fire and are replaced by pioneers and fire-tolerant species that occupy the disturbed sites or survive the immediate fire effects. Smoke from forest conversion burning caused considerable environmental problems, reducing visibility and affecting human health and security. Emissions from vegetation burning influence chemistry and functioning of the global atmosphere. The situation is different in those parts of mainland and insular Southeast Asia that are characterized by seasonal climate. Through long-term influence of climate variability, fire influence, and anthropogenic pressure the vegetation is better adapted to extrinsic stresses. During the 15 years between the extreme ENSO events and fire episodes of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 the national and international communities have been alerted and prepared to respond to the escalating fire situation in Indonesia. The response to the onset of the 1997–1998 fire and smoke episode, however, was absolutely inadequate and erratic. Meanwhile a whole continent – the maritime continent of Southeast Asia – has been degraded by excessive fire application for more than 20 years.

How unusual was late 20th century El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Assessing evidence from tree-ring, coral, ice-core and documentary palaeoarchives, A.D. 1525-2002

Abstract. Multiple proxy records (tree-ring, coral, ice and documentary) were examined to isolate ENSO signals associated with both phases of the phenomenon for the period A.D. 1525-2002. To avoid making large-scale inferences from single proxy analysis, regional signals were aggregated into a network of high-resolution records, revealing large-scale trends in the frequency, magnitude and duration of pre-instrumental ENSO using novel applications of percentile analysis. Here we use the newly introduced coupled ocean-atmosphere ENSO index (CEI) as a baseline for the calibration of proxy records. The reconstruction revealed 83 extreme or very strong ENSO episodes since A.D. 1525, expanding considerably on existing ENSO event chronologies. Significantly, excerpts of the most comprehensive list of La Niña events complied to date are presented, indicating peak activity during the 16th to mid 17th and 20th centuries. Although extreme events are seen throughout the 478-year reconstruction, 43% of the extreme ENSO events noted since A.D. 1525 occur during the 20th century, with an obvious bias towards enhanced El Niño conditions in recent decades. Of the total number of extreme event years reconstructed, 30% of all reconstructed ENSO event years occur post-1940 alone suggesting that recent ENSO variability appears anomalous in the context of the past five centuries.

Effects of atmospheric teleconnections on seasonal precipitation in mountainous regions of the southwestern U.S.: A case study in northern New Mexico

This study uses instrument records and geostatistical modeling to examine hydrologically important temporal and spatial patterns of seasonal precipitation associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in a mountainous region of northern New Mexico. PDO is the more dominant factor, compared to ENSO, with a larger influence on winter and spring precipitation (wetter for high PDO, drier for low PDO). Extreme ENSO effects are not significant during the high PDO years, but during low PDO years El Niño strongly dampens winter and spring precipitation anomalies. Elevation modulates ENSO and PDO effects on winter anomalies, but does not seem to for other seasons. For a wetter‐than‐normal winter, the anomalies are larger at higher elevations, and are positive. For a drier‐than‐normal winter, the anomalies are larger at lower elevations, and are negative. For neutral ENSO, summer precipitation is predictable but spatially variable, indicating different local climates. High‐resolution mapping brings out hydrologically important patterns of precipitation anomalies that would otherwise be blurred by spatial averaging.

A coupled method for initializing El Nino Southern Oscillation forecasts using sea surface temperature

A simple method for initializing coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) using only sea surface temperature (SST) data is comprehensively tested in an extended set of ensemble hindcasts with the Max-Planck-Institute (MPI) climate model, MPI-OM/ECHAM5. In the scheme, initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST nudged strongly to observations. Air–sea interaction provides the mechanism through which SST influences the subsurface. Comparison with observations indicates that the scheme is performing well in the tropical Pacific. Results from a 500-yr control run show that the model’s El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is quite realistic, in terms of strength, structure and period. The hindcasts performed were six months long, initiated four times per year, consisted of nine ensemble members, and covered the period 1969–2001. The ensemble was generated by only varying atmospheric initial conditions, which were sampled from the initialization run to capture intraseasonal variability. At six-month lead, the model is able to capture all the major ENSO extremes of the period. However, because of poor sampling of ocean initial conditions and model deficiencies, the ensemble-mean anomaly correlation skill for Nino3 SST is only 0.6 at six-month lead. None the less, the results presented here demonstrate the potential of such a simple scheme, and provide a simple method by which SST information may be better used in more complex initialization schemes.

Observations of downwelling infrared spectral radiance at Mauna Loa, Hawaii during the 1997–1998 ENSO event

Measurements of downwelling infrared spectral radiance at Mauna Loa, Hawaii during April and May of 1998 indicate unusually high infrared atmospheric transmittance. This is linked to large‐scale drying of the upper troposphere and stratosphere in the subtropical Pacific, which appears to be associated with the extreme El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1997–1998. During the driest periods, transmission windows opened in the wavenumber range of 500–600 cm−1, a water vapor rotational band that normally has high opacity. These data demonstrate the potential value of long‐term mountain‐top measurements for monitoring upper tropospheric water vapor and for validating satellite measurements of upper‐tropospheric water vapor.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Events Recorded in the Stratigraphy of the Tropical Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

Snow accumulation measured during 1982-1983 on the Quelccaya ice cap, Peru, was 70 percent of the average from 1975 through 1983. Inspection of 19 years (1964 through 1983) of accumulation measured near the summit of Quelccaya reveals a substantial decrease ( approximately 30 percent) in association with the last five El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurrences in the equatorial Pacific. The ENSO phenomenon is now recognized as a global event arising from large-scale interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. Understanding this extreme event, with the goal of prediction, requires a record of past occurrences. The Quelccaya ice cap, which contains 1500 years of annually accumulated ice layers, may provide a long and detailed record of the most extreme ENSO events.