External Validation Set Research Articles

Development of a Dual-Plane MRI-Based Deep Learning Model to Assess the 1-Year Postoperative Outcomes in Lumbar Disc Herniation After Tubular Microdiscectomy.

Tubular microdiscectomy (TMD) is a treatment for lumbar disc herniation (LDH). Although the combination of MRI and deep learning (DL) has shown promise, its application in evaluating postoperative outcomes in TMD has not been fully explored. To evaluate whether integrating preoperative dual-plane MRI-based DL features with clinical features can assess 1-year outcomes in TMD for LDH. Retrospective. The study involved 548 patients who underwent TMD between January 2016 and January 2021. Training set (N = 305, mean age 51.85 ± 13.84 years, 56.4% male). Internal validation set (N = 131, mean age 51.85 ± 13.84 years, 54.2% male). External validation set (N = 112, mean age 51.54 ± 14.43 years, 50.9% male). 3 T MRI with sagittal and transverse T2-weighted sequences (Fast Spin Echo). Ground truth labels were based on improvement rate in 1-year Japanese Orthopaedic Association (JOA) scores. Information on 42 preoperative clinical features was collected. The largest protrusions were identified from T2 MRI by three clinicians and were used to train deep learning models (ResNet50, ResNet101, and ResNet152) to extract DL features. After feature selection, three models were built, namely, clinical, DL, and combined models. Chi-square or Fisher's exact tests was used for group comparisons. Quantitative differences were analyzed using the t-test or Mann-Whitney U test. P-values <0.05 were considered significant. Models were validated on internal and external datasets using metrics such as the area under the curve (AUC). The AUCs of the clinical models achieved 0.806 (internal) and 0.779 (external). ResNet152 performed best in three DL models, with AUCs of 0.858 (internal) and 0.834 (external). The combined model achieved AUCs of 0.889 (internal) and 0.857 (external). A model combining preoperative dual-plane MRI DL features and clinical features can assess 1-year outcomes of TMD for LDH. 4 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

A generalised computer vision model for improved glaucoma screening using fundus images.

Worldwide, glaucoma is a leading cause of irreversible blindness. Timely detection is paramount yet challenging, particularly in resource-limited settings. A novel, computer vision-based model for glaucoma screening using fundus images could enhance early and accurate disease detection. To develop and validate a generalised deep-learning-based algorithm for screening glaucoma using fundus image. The glaucomatous fundus data were collected from 20 publicly accessible databases worldwide, resulting in 18,468 images from multiple clinical settings, of which 10,900 were classified as healthy and 7568 as glaucoma. All the data were evaluated and downsized to fit the model's input requirements. The potential model was selected from 20 pre-trained models and trained on the whole dataset except Drishti-GS. The best-performing model was further trained to classify healthy and glaucomatous fundus images using Fastai and PyTorch libraries. The model's performance was compared against the actual class using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision and the F1-score. The high discriminative ability of the best-performing model was evaluated on a dataset comprising 1364 glaucomatous discs and 2047 healthy discs. The model reflected robust performance metrics, with an AUROC of 0.9920 (95% CI: 0.9920-0.9921) for both the glaucoma and healthy classes. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, recall and F1-scores were consistently higher than 0.9530 for both classes. The model performed well on an external validation set of the Drishti-GS dataset, with an AUROC of 0.8751 and an accuracy of 0.8713. This study demonstrated the high efficacy of our classification model in distinguishing between glaucomatous and healthy discs. However, the model's accuracy slightly dropped when evaluated on unseen data, indicating potential inconsistencies among the datasets-the model needs to be refined and validated on larger, more diverse datasets to ensure reliability and generalisability. Despite this, our model can be utilised for screening glaucoma at the population level.

Development and validation of a nomogram diagnostic model for coronary slow flow patients: A cross-sectional study.

In this study, risk factors for coronary slow flow (CSF) patients were examined, and a clinical prediction model was created. This study involved 573 patients who underwent coronary angiography at our hospital because of chest pain from January 2020 to April 2022. They were divided into CSF group (249 cases) and noncoronary slow flow (NCF) group (324 cases) according to the coronary blood flow results. According to a 7:3 ratio, the patients were categorized into a training group consisting of 402 cases and a validation group consisting of 171 cases. The outcome was assessed by employing multiple logistic regression analysis to examine the factors that influenced it. The model's recognizability was assessed by calculating the consistency index and plotting the receiver operating characteristic curve. Its consistency was assessed by calibration curve, decision curve, and Hosmer-Lemeshow testing goodness-of-fit. The multivariate model included factors such as male, BMI, smoking, diabetes, ursolic acid, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The model validation showed that the consistency index was 0.714, and the external validation set had a consistency index of 0.741. The areas under the curve for the training and external validation sets were respectively 0.730 (95% CI: 0.681-0.779) and 0.770 (95%CI: 0.699-0.841). Nomogram calibration curves indicated intense calibration, and the results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test indicated that χ² = 1.118, P = .572. The nomogram combining various risk factors can be used for individualized predictions of CSF patients and then facilitate prompt and specific treatment.

Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models for Identifying Prediabetes and Diabetes in Normoglycemia.

Prediabetes and diabetes are both abnormal states of glucose metabolism (AGM) that can lead to severe complications. Early detection of AGM is crucial for timely intervention and treatment. However, fasting blood glucose (FBG) as a mass population screening method may fail to identify some individuals who are actually AGM but with normoglycemia. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to identify AGM among individuals with normoglycemia using routine health check-up indicators. According to the American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria, participants with normoglycemia (FBG≤5.6mmol/L) were collected from 2019 to 2023, and then divided into AGM and Normalgroups using glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) 5.7% as the threshold. Data from 2019 to 2022 were divided into training and internal validation sets at a 7:3 ratio, while data from 2023 were used as the external validation set. Seven ML algorithms-including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting machine, multilayer perceptron (MLP), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and categorical boosting (CatBoost)-were used to build models for identifying AGM in normoglycemia population. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) and the precision-recall curve (auPR). The feature contributions to the optimal model was visualised using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Finally, an intuitive and user-friendly interactive interface was developed. A total of 59,259 participants were finally enroled in this study, and then divided into the training set of 32,810, the internal validation set of 14,060, and the external validation set of 12,389. The Catboost model outperformed the others with auROC of 0.806 and 0.794 for the internal and external validation set, respectively. Age was the most important feature influencing the performance of the CatBoost model, followed by fasting blood glucose, red blood cells, haemoglobin, body mass index, and triglyceride-glucose. A well-performed ML model to identify AGM in the normoglycemia population was built, offering significant potential for early intervention and treatment of AGM that would otherwise have been missed.

Applying Deep-Learning Algorithm Interpreting Kidney, Ureter, and Bladder (KUB) X-Rays to Detect Colon Cancer.

Early screening is crucial in reducing the mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC). Current screening methods, including fecal occult blood tests (FOBT) and colonoscopy, are primarily limited by low patient compliance and the invasive nature of the procedures. Several advanced imaging techniques such as computed tomography (CT) and histological imaging have been integrated with artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance the detection of CRC. There are still limitations because of the challenges associated with image acquisition and the cost. Kidney, ureter, and bladder (KUB) radiograph which is inexpensive and widely used for abdominal assessments in emergency settings and shows potential for detecting CRC when enhanced using advanced techniques. This study aimed to develop a deep learning model (DLM) to detect CRC using KUB radiographs. This retrospective study was conducted using data from the Tri-Service General Hospital (TSGH) between January 2011 and December 2020, including patients with at least one KUB radiograph. Patients were divided into development (n = 28,055), tuning (n = 11,234), and internal validation (n = 16,875) sets. An additional 15,876 patients were collected from a community hospital as the external validation set. A 121-layer DenseNet convolutional network was trained to classify KUB images for CRC detection. The model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves, with sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) as metrics. The AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of the DLM in the internal and external validation sets achieved 0.738, 61.3%, and 74.4%, as well as 0.656, 47.7%, and 72.9%, respectively. The model performed better for high-grade CRC, with AUCs of 0.744 and 0.674 in the internal and external sets, respectively. Stratified analysis showed superior performance in females aged 55-64 with high-grade cancers. AI-positive predictions were associated with a higher long-term risk of all-cause mortality in both validation cohorts. AI-enhanced KUB X-ray analysis can enhance CRC screening coverage and effectiveness, providing a cost-effective alternative to traditional methods. Further prospective studies are necessary to validate these findings and fully integrate this technology into clinical practice.

Decoding marker genes and immune landscape of unstable carotid plaques from cellular senescence

Recently, cellular senescence-induced unstable carotid plaques have gained increasing attention. In this study, we utilized bioinformatics and machine learning methods to investigate the correlation between cellular senescence and the pathological mechanisms of unstable carotid plaques. Our aim was to elucidate the causes of unstable carotid plaque progression and identify new therapeutic strategies. First, differential expression analysis was performed on the test set GSE43292 to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between the unstable plaque group and the control group. These DEGs were intersected with cellular senescence-associated genes to obtain 40 cellular senescence-associated DEGs. Subsequently, key genes were then identified through weighted gene co-expression network analysis, random forest, Recursive Feature Elimination for Support Vector Machines algorithm and cytoHubba plugin. The intersection yielded 3 CSA-signature genes, which were validated in the external validation set GSE163154. Additionally, we assessed the relationship between these CSA-signature genes and the immune landscape of the unstable plaque group. This study suggests that cellular senescence may play an important role in the progression mechanism of unstable plaques and is closely related to the influence of the immune microenvironment. Our research lays the foundation for studying the progression mechanism of unstable carotid plaques and provides some reference for targeted therapy.

Development and internal and external validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of chronic kidney disease progression in IgA nephropathy patients.

IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary glomerular disease in chronic kidney disease (CKD), exhibiting significant heterogeneity in both clinical and pathological presentations. We aimed to explore the risk factors influencing short-term prognosis (≥90 days) and to construct a nomogram model for evaluating the risk of CKD progression in IgAN patients. Clinical and pathological data of patients diagnosed with IgAN through biopsy at two centers were retrospectively collected. Logistic regression was employed to analyze the training cohort dataset and identify the independent predictors to construct a nomogram model based on the final variables. The predictive model was validated both internally and externally, with its performance assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. Out of the patients in the modeling group, 129 individuals (41.6%) did not achieve remission following 3 months of treatment, indicating a high risk of CKD progression. A multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that body mass index, urinary protein excretion, and tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis were identified as independent predictors for risk stratification. A nomogram model was formulated utilizing the final variables. The AUCs for the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set were 0.746 (95% confidence intervals (CI) [0.691-0.8]), 0.764 (95% CI [0.68-0.85]), and 0.749 (95% CI [0.65-0.85]), respectively. The validation of the subgroup analysis also demonstrated a satisfactory AUC. This study developed and validated a practical nomogram that can individually predict short-term treatment outcomes (≥90 days) and the risk of CKD progression in IgAN patients. It provides reliable guidance for timely and personalized intervention and treatment strategies.

Diagnostic precision in thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy using multi-center radiomics with 99mTc-DTPA SPECT/CT

To explore the performance of 99mTc-diethylene triaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA) SPECT/CT texture analysis in evaluating the activity of thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy (TAO) . This retrospective study examined 115 TAO patients from a single institution as an internal cohort and 58 TAO patients from another institution as an external validation set. Patients in the internal cohort were randomly divided into training (n = 81) and internal validation sets (n = 34). Radiomics signatures were constructed with the minimal redundancy maximal relevance and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithms in training set. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop a clinical model and a combined clinical–radiomics model. Diagnostic performance of models was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves and decision curve analysis. Compared with CT and SPECT radiomics models, Rad-scoreSPECT/CT demonstrated the best performance with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94 and 0.91 in the training and test sets, respectively. The combined clinical-radiomics model exhibited significantly better performance in evaluating TAO activity. Our results demonstrate the validity of a multimodal radiomic model of 99mTc-DTPA-SPECT/CT to assess TAO activity. The combined clinical-radiomics model exhibited significantly better diagnostic performance than the clinical model.

AngioPy: an open-source, deep learning-driven tool for coronary artery segmentation

Abstract Background Quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) permits the objective assessment of coronary artery disease. However, traditional edge detection algorithms often struggle with accurate vessel segmentation due to the complexity and variable quality of angiographic images. As a result, manual correction is frequently needed, which is a major limitation of current QCA systems. Purpose We developed angioPy, a deep learning-driven tool for vessel segmentation that employs user-defined ground truth points to minimise manual correction. We compared its performance without correction with an established QCA system. Methods angioPy was developed using 2455 images from the Fractional Flow Reserve versus Angiography for Multivessel Evaluation 2 (FAME 2) study. Deep learning models were constructed using the U-Net architecture with one of three popular backbones for image classification: ResNet101, DenseNet121, and InceptionResNet-v2. Critically, the model was constructed to integrate the user’s clinical expertise through the selection of a 5-10 ground-truth points along the length of the vessel of interest including the desired start and end point of vessel segmentation. These ground truth points were added to a separate channel of the input image. Five-fold cross validation was performed using proportions of 3:1:1 for training, validation, and test sets, respectively. External validation was performed on a separate dataset of 580 images not used for model development. For both datasets, ground truth segmentation masks were provided by interventional cardiologists using specialised in-house software. A separate analysis was performed in a cohort of 74 patients with mild/moderate stenoses that underwent vessel segmentation using both angioPy and an established commercial QCA package (Medis QFR®). Vessel dimensions at stenoses (proximal and distal reference, minimal luminal diameter) were extracted from both segmentation approaches and compared (609 diameters in total). Results The best performing model performed segmentation with an average F1 score of 0.927 (pixel accuracy 0.998, precision 0.925, sensitivity 0.930, specificity 0.999) with 99.2% of masks exhibiting an F1 score &amp;gt; 0.8 (Figure 1). Simliar results were achieved in the external validation set (F1 score 0.924, pixel accuracy 0.997, precision 0.921, sensitivity 0.929, specificity 0.999). Stenosis dimensions measured with angioPy (mean diameter 3.54 ±1.15 mm) exhibited excellent agreement with QCA (r=0.95 [95% CI 0.95-0.96], p&amp;lt;0.001; mean difference -0.18 mm [limits of agreement: -0.84 to 0.49]) (Figure 2). Minimal luminal diameter (mean 2.93 ±0.91 mm) also exhibited strong agreement (r=0.93 [95% CI 0.91-0.95], p&amp;lt;0.001; mean difference -0.06 mm [limits of agreement: -0.70 to 0.59]. Conclusion angioPy performs rapid and accurate coronary segmentation without the need for manual correction. Available as an open-source tool, angioPy has the potential to increase the efficiency and reliability of QCA.Figure 1.angioPy segmentationFigure 2.angioPy vs QCA (Medis)

A practical nomogram and risk stratification system for predicting in-hospital mortality of patients with non-acute myocardial infarction related cardiogenic shock

Abstract Background The morbidity and mortality of Cardiogenic Shock(CS) remain high despite the advance in management these years1.As acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is considered to be the most common reason for cardiogenic shock,Non-AMI related CS is excluded from the majority of CS studies and remains largely understudied2. Considering its inherent complexity and hemodynamically multiplicity, it is needed to focusing on these patients to identify specific risk factors, which may be conducive to the promotion of critically CS patients with early decision and timely intervention. Purpose In this study,we sought to investigate the variables which are predictive of in hospital mortality in non AMI related CS patients, developed and validated a practical nomogram for risk quantification. Methods 1298 patients and 548 patients with cardiogenic shock from the MIMIC-IV (version 1.0) and MIMIC-III(version1.4) databaes were included in the study after excluding acute myocardial infarction. We used in-hospital death and 30 day survival as the end points. Lasson and logistic regression analysis were used to identify statistically significant predictors which were finally involved in the nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration after comparing with commonly used ICU scores for in-hospital death.Lastly, we plotted Kaplan-Meier curves of three subgroup classified by the identified cutoff values of the nomogram to further assess the discriminative ability of the prognosis. Results The in-hospital mortality of patients with non-AMI related CS is about 36.6%.After the analysis of regression, age, heart rate, wbc, albumin, lactic acid, GCS score, urine volume, using vasopressor were identified as the most critical factors for the in-hospital death. Based on the these results, a nomogram for predicting in-hospital death was established.The calibration plot also shows good consistency between nomogram prediction and actual in-hospital mortality.In addition, compared with other scores, the AUC value of nomogram was 0.806 (95% CI = 0.799-0.831) in the training queue, 0.814 (95% CI = 0.771-0.852) in the internal validation queue and 0.730 (95% CI = 0.690-0.767) in the external validation set, which was significantly higher than other commonly used ICU scoring systems(SAPSII, APSIII and SOFA).Also, three risk subgroups were created using two boundary points (303 and 339) of the nomogram score and the survival curve shows that there were significant differences in the 30 day survival of each subgroup. Conclusion A prognostic nomogram and risk stratification system of non-AMI related CS were established and verified, which can provide a practical tool for individualized clinical management of patients.Workflow of the study.Nomogram for non-AMI related CS patients

Multiomics Profiling of Plasma Reveals Molecular Alterations Prior to a Diagnosis with Stroke Among Chinese Hypertension Patients.

We aimed to investigate the correlation between plasma proteins and metabolites and the occurrence of future strokes using mass spectrometry and bioinformatics as well as to identify other biomarkers that could predict stroke risk in hypertensive patients. In a nested case-control study, baseline plasma samples were collected from 50 hypertensive subjects who developed stroke and 50 gender-, age- and body mass index-matched controls. Plasma untargeted metabolomics and data independent acquisition-based proteomics analysis were performed in hypertensive patients, and 19 metabolites and 111 proteins were found to be differentially expressed. Integrative analyses revealed that molecular changes in plasma indicated dysregulation of protein digestion and absorption, salivary secretion, and regulation of actin cytoskeleton, along with significant metabolic suppression. C4BPA, Caprolactam, Col15A1, and HBB were identified as predictors of stroke occurrence, and the Support Vector Machines (SVM) model was determined to be the optimal predictive model by integrating six machine-learning classification models. The SVM model showed strong performance in both the internal validation set (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.977, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.941-1.000) and the external independent validation set (AUC: 0.973, 95% CI: 0.921-0.999).

Construction and validation of a line chart for gestational diabetes mellitus based on clinical indicators

BackgroundGestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is a common complication of mid–to-late pregnancy. Here, we constructed a predictive model for GDM based on a combination of clinical characteristics and relevant serum markers.MethodsData from full-term singleton vaginal deliveries from January 2022 to January 2023 were retrospectively collected from the obstetrics department. The data collected were segregated and assigned to training, validation, and external test sets. Maternal demographic characteristics, living and working habits, and haematological indicators, such as liver function and lipids were collected using a questionnaire designed for the study. The “rms” package in R was used to explore GDM-associated factors through stepwise regression at P < 0.05. A predictive model was developed based on the results of multifactorial logistic regression analysis. We then evaluated the differentiation of the column-line graphical model and performed internal and external validation. To assess the accuracy of the bar graphical model, we plotted calibration and decision curves.ResultsData from 265 pregnant women were included in the training and internal validation sets, and data from 113 pregnant women were included in the external validation set. The logistic regression algorithm screened 8 indicators as predictors. A prediction model was constructed with ALT, TBA, TC, and TG levels while considering whether GDM affects appetite, the husband– wife relationship, family history, and parental relationships as predictors. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test revealed that the chi-square values for the modelling, internal validation, and external validation groups (χ2 = 5.964, 3.249, and 12.182, respectively) were all P > 0.05. The ROC curve AUCs for the three groups were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89–0.97), 0.72 (95% CI: 0.62–0.81), and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.53–0.83), respectively.ConclusionIn this study, a GDM prediction model was constructed to achieve high performance in GDM risk prediction based on routine obstetric tests and information.

Automated quantification of cerebral microbleeds in susceptibility-weighted MRI: association with vascular risk factors, white matter hyperintensity burden, and cognitive function.

To train and validate a deep learning (DL)-based segmentation model for cerebral microbleeds (CMB) on susceptibility-weighted MRI; and to find associations between CMB, cognitive impairment, and vascular risk factors. Participants in this single-institution retrospective study underwent brain MRI to evaluate cognitive impairment between January-September 2023. For training the DL model, the nnU-Net framework was used without modifications. The DL model's performance was evaluated on independent internal and external validation datasets. Linear regression analysis was used to find associations between log-transformed CMB numbers, cognitive function (mini-mental status examination [MMSE]), white matter hyperintensity (WMH) burden, and clinical vascular risk factors (age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, lipid profiles, and body mass index). Training of the DL model (n = 287) resulted in a robust segmentation performance with an average dice score of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67-0.79) in an internal validation set, (n = 67) and modest performance in an external validation set (dice score = 0.46, 95% CI, 0.33-0.59, n = 68). In a temporally independent clinical dataset (n = 448), older age, hypertension, and WMH burden were significantly associated with CMB numbers in all distributions (total, lobar, deep, and cerebellar; all P <.01). MMSE was significantly associated with hyperlipidemia (β = 1.88, 95% CI, 0.96-2.81, P <.001), WMH burden (β = -0.17 per 1% WMH burden, 95% CI, -0.27-0.08, P <.001), and total CMB number (β = -0.01 per 1 CMB, 95% CI, -0.02-0.001, P = .04) after adjusting for age and sex. The DL model showed a robust segmentation performance for CMB. In all distributions, CMB had significant positive associations with WMH burden. Increased WMH burden and CMB numbers were associated with decreased cognitive function. CMB = cerebral microbleed; DL = deep learning, DSC = dice similarity coefficient; MMSE = mini-mental status examination; SVD = small vessel disease; SWI = susceptibility-weighted image; WMH = white matter hyperintensity.

Development and validation of a multivariable nomogram predictive of hepatitis B e antigen seroconversion after pregnancy in hepatitis B virus-infected mothers.

Current guidelines are controversial regarding the continuation of nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) therapy after delivery in Hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected pregnant women. The postpartum period may be an opportune moment for achieving hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion earlier with constant NAs therapy due to the restoration of immune function after delivery. We investigated prenatal and pregnant factors associated with HBeAg seroconversion after pregnancy and developed a nomogram to predict HBeAg seroconversion rates, aiding decision-making for optimal management in women. We retrospectively included 489 HBeAg-positive mothers as the training cohort from January 2014 to December 2018 and prospectively enrolled 94 patients as the external validation cohort from January 2019 to December 2021 at the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University. In the training cohort, independent predictors were identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression algorithm. Subsequently, multivariate logistic regression was employed to establish the nomogram. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Both discrimination and calibration were evaluated through bootstrapping with 1,000 resamples. The external validation cohort was subsequently used to validate the nomogram. Factors such as pregnancy hepatitis flare (OR: 5.122, 95% CI: 2.725-9.928, p < 0.001), NAs therapy after delivery (OR: 15.051, 95% CI: 6.954-37.895, p: <0.001), hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) (OR: 0.549, 95% CI: 0.366-0.812, p: 0.003) and HBV DNA level at delivery (OR: 0.785, 95% CI: 0.619-0.986, p: 0.041) were included in the final risk model. The AUC in the training set was 0.873 (95% CI: 0.839-0.904). The calibration curve of the nomogram closely resembled the ideal diagonal line. DCA showed a significantly better net benefit in the model. External validation also confirmed the reliability of the prediction nomogram. The AUC in the external validation set was 0.889 (95% CI: 0.801-0.953). The calibration curve for the external validation set was in close proximity to the ideal diagonal line. DCA also demonstrated a significant net benefit associated with the predictive model, consistent with the findings in the training set. Finally, the nomogram has been translated into an online risk calculator that is freely available to the public (https://wendyzhong.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/). We developed a nomogram based on prenatal and pregnant factors to estimate HBeAg seroconversion after delivery in women. This tool provides clinicians with a precise and effective way to identify individuals likely to undergo HBeAg seroconversion postpartum, aiding in decision-making for optimal management.

Development and validation of a machine learning‐based model of ischemic stroke risk in the Chinese elderly hypertensive population

AbstractMachine learning (ML) has made some significant contributions to stroke prevention, but the stability and accuracy of existing models for clinical applications are uncertain. This study develops and validates an interpretable ML model using metabolic and coagulation biomarkers to predict ischemic stroke in elderly hypertensive patients in Northwest China. The prediction model used 453 electronic medical records for the model building (80% as a training set and 20% as a test set) and 132 for external validation. The final seven key features (D‐dimer, cystatin C, homocysteine, hemoglobin A1c, prothrombin time, low‐density lipoprotein C, and triglyceride glucose‐body mass index) were selected by the advanced approach, elastic net, and classical wrapping approaches. The final model, eXtreme gradient boosting, was identified as having superior performance than the other 9 classifers (random forest, Gaussian process, multilayer perceptron, logistic regression, support vector machine, K‐nearest neighbor, decision tree, Gaussian naive bayes, and ensemble model), with area under the receiver‐operating characteristic curves of 0.97 and 0.94 for the test and external validation sets, respectively. The final model demonstrates excellent stability, accuracy, and clinical usefulness through various metrics and decision curve analysis. Additionally, an online human–machine interface application has been developed for clinical practice to help early identification and intervention for ischemic stroke in elderly hypertensive patients.

Prediction of lymphovascular invasion in invasive breast cancer based on clinical-MRI radiomics features

ObjectiveWe aim to develop a predictive model for lymphovascular invasion (LVI) in patients with invasive breast cancer (IBC), using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based radiomics features.MethodsA total of 204 patients with IBC admitted to our hospital were included in this retrospective study. The data was split into training and validation sets at a 7:3 ratio. Feature normalization was conducted, followed by feature selection using ANOVA, correlation analysis, and LASSO in the training set. The final step involved building a logistic regression model. The LVI prediction models were established by single sequence image and combined different sequence images as follows: A: prediction model based on the optimal sequence in the 7-phase enhanced MRI scans; B: prediction model based on the optimal sequences in the sequences T1WI, T2WI, and DWI; and C: the combined model based on the optimal sequences selected from A and B. Subjects' work characteristic curves (ROC) and decision curves (DCA) were plotted to determine the extent to which they predicted LVI performance in the training and validation sets. Simultaneously, nomogram models were constructed by integrating radiomics features and independent risk factors. In addition, an additional 16 patients from the center between January and August 2024 were collected as the Nomogram external validation set. The ROC and DCA were used to evaluate the performance of the model.ResultsIn the enhanced images, Model A built based on the enhanced 2-phase achieved the best average AUC, with a validation set of 0.764. Model B built based on the T2WI had better results, with a validation set of 0.693. Model C built by combining enhanced 2-phase and T2WI sequences had a mean AUC of 0.705 in the validation set. In addition, the tumor size, whether the tumor boundary was clear or not, and whether there was a coelom in the tumor tissue had a statistically significant effect on the LVI of IBC, and a clinical-radiomics nomogram was established. DCAs as well as Nomogram also indicate that Model A has good clinical utility. The AUC of the nomogram in the training set, internal validation set, and external validation set were 0.703, 0.615, and 0.609, respectively. The DCA also showed that the radiomics nomogram combined with clinical factors had good predictive ability for LVI.ConclusionIn IBC, MRI radiomics can serve as a noninvasive predictor of LVI. The clinical-MRI radiomics model, as an efficient visual prognostic tool, shows promise in forecasting LVI. This highlights the significant potential of pre-radiomics prediction in enhancing treatment strategies.

Identification of PANoptosis Subtypes to Assess the Prognosis and Immune Microenvironment of Lung Adenocarcinoma Patients: A Bioinformatics Combined Machine Learning Study.

PANoptosis, a novelty mechanism of cell death involving crosstalk between apoptosis, pyroptosis, and necroptosis, is strongly associated with tumor cell death and immunotherapy efficacy. However, its relevance in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) remains to be elucidated. In this study, we acquired 18 PANoptosis-related differentially expressed gene (PRDEG) of LUAD. Based on these genes, LUAD samples were identified with different sub-types by unsupervised clustering. Next, we compared the differences between the subtypes, including clinical features, immune microenvironment, and potentially sensitive drugs. Further-more, we used machine learning to identify hub prognostic PRDEGs, construct a risk score, and validate it on other external datasets. We incorporated the patient's clinical information and risk score into the proportional hazards model and lasso-cox models to find key prognostic features and constructed five prognostic models. The best model was identified via the area under the curve and validated on an external dataset. LUAD patients were divided into two clusters named C1 and C2, respectively. The C2 cluster exhibited shorter survival time, more advanced tumor stage, higher suppressive immune cell scores, such as dendritic cells, and higher expression of inhibitory immune checkpoints, such as LAG3 and CD86. TIMP1, CAV1, and CD69 were recognized as key prognostic factors, and risk scores predicted survival with significant differences in the external validation set. Risk score and N-stage were identified as critical prognostic features. The Coxph model outper-formed other machine learning clinical models. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year time-ROCs in the exter-nal validation set were 0.55, 0.59, and 0.60, respectively. We demonstrated the potential of PANoptosis-based molecular clustering and prognostic features in predicting the survival of patients with LUAD as well as the tumor mi-croenvironment.

Nomogram based on virtual hyperemic pullback pressure gradients for predicting the suboptimal post-PCI QFR outcome after stent implantation.

Growing evidence shows an association between higher post-PCI quantitative flow ratios (QFR) and improved clinical prognosis, however, no models are available to predict suboptimal QFRs (< 0.91) after angiographically successful PCI. This study aims to establish a prediction nomogram for this domain. This study included 450 vessels derived from 421 consecutive patients enrolled in the PIONEER IV trial, which were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to a training (N = 225) and internal validation (N = 225) set, with external validation performed in 97 vessels from 95 consecutive patients enrolled in the ASET Japan trial. LASSO regression was used for optimal feature selection, and multivariate logistic regression was subsequently utilized to construct the nomogram. The performance of the nomograms was assessed and validated by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), calibration curves, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curves. The nomogram was constructed incorporating a novel metric, quantitative flow ratio derived pullback pressure gradient (QFR-PPG), alongside four conventional parameters: left anterior descending artery disease, pre-procedural QFR, reference vessel diameter, and percent diameter stenosis. AUCs of the nomogram were 0.866 (95%CI:0.818-0.914), 0.784 (95% CI:0.722-0.847), and 0.781 (95% CI:0.682-0.879) in the training, internal validation and external validation sets, respectively. Bias-corrected curves revealed a strong consistency between actual observations and prediction. The risk of a suboptimal post-PCI QFR in patients after angiographically successful PCI can be effectively predicted using a nomogram incorporating five variables available pre-PCI, with its performance and clinical predictive value confirming its utility in helping clinicians with decision-making and planning revascularization. Registered on clinicaltrial.gov (NCT04923191 and NCT05117866).

Development and external validation of a prediction model for interstitial lung disease in systemic lupus erythematosus patients: A cross-sectional study

ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to develop and validate a nomogram that can assist clinicians in identifying female systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients of reproductive age complicated with interstitial lung disease (ILD). MethodsClinical, laboratory data of SLE patients were first collected. Meteorological data were then gathered according to the geographical locations of the SLE patients. Diagnostic results, univariate logistic regression, elastic net regression, and multivariate logistic regression were used to screen for risk factors for female SLE patients of reproductive age complicated with ILD. A nomogram was constructed using these risk factors and was internally and externally validated through methods such as calculating the concordance index, plotting calibration curves, drawing receiver operating characteristic curves, and clinical decision curves. ResultsA total of 4798 SLE patients were included in this study, with 2488 patients in the development set and 2310 patients in the external validation set. The patients in the development set were randomly divided into a training set (N = 1742) and an internal testing set (N = 746) at a ratio of 7:3. Eight independent risk factors for ILD were identified, including APOB, APOA1, ALP, PLT, HCT, EOS-R, LYM-R, and age. The nomogram model was developed, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.811 (0.748, 0.875), 0.820 (0.727,0.913), and 0.889 (0.869, 0.909) for the three sets, respectively. ConclusionWe established a nomogram model using easily accessible clinical and laboratory data to predict the probability of female SLE patients of reproductive age developing ILD.

Application of artificial intelligence model in pathological staging and prognosis of clear cell renal cell carcinoma

This study aims to develop a deep learning (DL) model based on whole-slide images (WSIs) to predict the pathological stage of clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). The histopathological images of 513 ccRCC patients were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and randomly divided into training set and validation set according to the ratio of 8∶2. The CLAM algorithm was used to establish the DL model, and the stability of the model was evaluated in the external validation set. DL features were extracted from the model to construct a prognostic risk model, which was validated in an external dataset. The results showed that the DL model showed excellent prediction ability with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.875 and an average accuracy score of 0.809, indicating that the model could reliably distinguish ccRCC patients at different stages from histopathological images. In addition, the prognostic risk model constructed by DL characteristics showed that the overall survival rate of patients in the high-risk group was significantly lower than that in the low-risk group (P = 0.003), and AUC values for predicting 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were 0.68, 0.69 and 0.69, respectively, indicating that the prediction model had high sensitivity and specificity. The results of the validation set are consistent with the above results. Therefore, DL model can accurately predict the pathological stage and prognosis of ccRCC patients, and provide certain reference value for clinical diagnosis.