External Equilibrium Research Articles

Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, Currency Misalignment, and Trade Performance - The Case of Vietnam: 1992-2017

This paper is conducted to uncover the determinants of the equilibrium real exchange rate and evaluate the magnitude of exchange rate misalignment for the Vietnamese dong over the period 1992-2017 under the cointegration framework. The results of econometric analysis indicate that the Vietnamese dong was overvalued during the periods 1996-2002, 2007-2010, 2015-2017. This was due to the fact that the Vietnamese dong was rigidly kept stable while the economy experienced a persistent high inflation environment through many consecutive years in the past. The overvaluation of the Vietnamese dong apparently contributed to the deterioration of the trade account. The monetary authority allowed the currency to be largely devaluated only at the time when loss of competitiveness was clearly discerned and when there were pressures emerged from crisis periods. The findings suggest that the real exchange rate should be managed in line with its equilibrium level and any misalignment should be adjusted on time in order to maintain the country’s trade competitiveness and external equilibrium.

Calculation of a two-phase system of a liquified hydrocarbon gas

Liquefied hydrocarbon gases are a mixture of chemical compounds, consisting mainly of hydrogen and carbon with different molecular structures. The main components of liquefied hydrocarbon gases are propane and butane, containing lighter hydrocarbons (methane and ethane) and heavier ones (pentane) in the form of impurities. All of these components are saturated hydrocarbons. The composition of liquefied hydrocarbon gases can also include unsaturated hydrocarbons: ethylene, propylene, butylene. Butane-butylenes may be present as isomeric compounds (isobutane and isobutylene). When designing and operating liquefied petroleum gas systems, it is necessary to take into account the external equilibrium between the liquid and the gas. The paper analyzes the change in the ratio of components, in which the relative content of lighter hydrocarbons will decrease, while the content of heavier ones will increase. With an intensive flow of gas, the temperature of the liquid will drop sharply, estimation will be disturbed, and the vessel will freeze. Therefore, when operating balloon installations, it is very important to consider safety issues that are associated with containers’ filling, as well as with the change in the composition of hydrocarbon gases mixture. The discussed issues related to the calculation of a two-phase system of liquefied hydrocarbon gas can improve the operating conditions of the systems.

Monetary and absorption approach to explain the Croatian current account

The paper brings the determinants of Croatian current account dynamics under monetary and absorption approach. The main hypothesis of the paper assumes that Croatian current account can be explained within the framework based on the monetary and absorption approach to balance of payments. The research employed newly developed Non-linear Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach that takes into account nonlinear and asymmetric nature of the relationship between Croatian current account and its determinants. Estimated results on a quarterly data sample from the first quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2017 supports the main research hypothesis and reveals that that Croatian current account can be explained using the analytical framework based on the monetary and absorption approach. Domestic demand, real exchange rate index, loans to private sector and monetary aggregates M4 are tested as the determinants of Croatian current account. Monetary aggregates M4 are found to hold the highest explanatory power among tested monetary variables. The main findings of the paper suggest the need for fiscal policy measures and relaxing the liquidity constraints for the Croatian exporters as necessary to obtain external equilibrium.

Adsorption mechanisms of five bisphenol analogues on PVC microplastics

Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastics are easily embrittled and decomposed to microplastics in an aquatic environment. The plasticizers such as bisphenol A (BPA), bisphenol S (BPS) and their analogues might be released and adsorbed by the PVC microplastics causing consequential pollution to the ecosystem. Herein, a systematic study was performed to determine the adsorption mechanisms of five bisphenol analogues (BPA, BPS, BPF, BPB and BPAF) on PVC microplastics. The maximum adsorption efficiency reached 0.19 ± 0.02 mg·g−1 (BPA), 0.15 ± 0.01 mg·g−1 (BPS), 0.16 ± 0.01 mg·g−1 (BPF), 0.22 ± 0.01 mg·g−1 (BPB), and 0.24 ± 0.02 mg·g−1 (BPAF) at PVC dosage of 1.5 g·L−1. The kinetics study shows that the adsorption processes can be divided into three stages including external mass transport, intraparticle diffusion and dynamic equilibrium. The isotherm modeling shows a better fit of the adsorption results to the Freundlich isotherm compared to the Langmuir model. The thermodynamic study indicates the adsorption of all bisphenols as exothermic processes. Furthermore, the adsorption mechanisms of bisphenols were explicated intensively, with respect to hydrophobic interactions, electrostatic forces, and noncovalent bonds. A positive effect of hydrophobic interactions was identified for bisphenols adsorption on PVC microplastics, but an obvious inhibition by electrostatic repulsions was revealed for BPF due to its ionization in the neutral solution. In addition, noncovalent bonds (hydrogen and halogen bonds) may promote the adsorption of bisphenols on PVC microplastics. Finally, the desorption and competitive adsorption of five bisphenol analogues on the microplastics were provided together with a perspective for future works.

Parameters and bifurcations of equilibrium points in the gravitational potential of irregular-shaped bodies subjected to a varying external shape

In this work, we investigate variations in the positions, eigenvalues, Jacobi integrals, topological cases, as well as the stability of equilibrium points around the asteroid 243 Ida when varying the external shape of the body. First, we employ a polyhedral shape model to calculate the surface height, gravitational force acceleration on the surface, and effective potential on the surface of 243 Ida. We then adopt the homotopy analysis method to generate variations in the external shape of a generic body within a continuum between the modeled external shape of 243 Ida and that of a sphere while maintaining a constant volume. Then, we calculated the positions, eigenvalues, Jacobi integrals, as well as the Hessian matrices of the equilibrium points in the gravitational potential of the generic body. We analyzed the topological cases and stability of the equilibrium points based on the obtained eigenvalues and Hessian matrices. It is concluded that the positions, eigenvalues, and Jacobi integrals change when varying the external shape of the body. For the four external equilibrium points E1–E4, the norm of the position vectors increases; however, the norm of the position vector for the internal equilibrium point E5 decreases. Equilibrium points E2 and E4 are subject to Hopf bifurcation when varying the external shape of the body, and the topological cases and stability of E2 and E4 are correspondingly changed. In contrast, the topological cases and stability of equilibrium points E1, E3, and E5 remain unchanged when varying the external shape of the body.

Hydrogen storage on LaNi5−xSnx. Experimental and phenomenological Model-based analysis

Three hydride-forming metals (LaNi5, LaNi4.73Sn0.27, and LaNi4.55Sn0.45) have been studied as solid phase hydrogen storage material in batch experiments using pure hydrogen and temperatures ranging from 300 K to 340 K. This process mainly involves: physisorption of hydrogen gas molecules; chemisorption and dissociation of hydrogen molecules; surface penetration of hydrogen atoms; hydride formation; and diffusion of hydrogen atoms through hydride-forming metal. In case the material is fully hydrided, hydride formation ceases and diffusion proceeds on the fully hydrided material.A phenomenological model was developed by aggregating the first four mechanisms in a single sorption kinetic term involving a first-order driving force, the remaining mechanism being the atomic diffusion in the hydride-forming material. The driving force is computed between external partial pressure and equilibrium pressure according to the Pressure-Composition-Temperature model (PCT). The corresponding parameters for an empirical PCT were estimated from equilibrium data. This equation is more suitable for process engineering optimization due to the smoothness in its concentration domain. Specific sorption rate and diffusion coefficients of the process were also estimated from dynamic data. From a sensitivity analysis, productivity proved to be related to particle diameter. In the frame of batch processes, the global rate is dominated by the sorption kinetic term at the beginning of the experiments with the material being free from hydride, whereas with more than 5–10% of the material being hydrided, diffusion dominates the process. LaNi5 shows higher hydrogen storage capacity than LaNi4.73Sn0.27 and LaNi4.55Sn0.45 within the investigated temperature and pressure ranges. Diffusion and sorption kinetic limited regions were identified from a sensitivity analysis of process productivity and normalized marginal values. The present work is oriented to modeling, designing, and optimizing storage and purification devices.

Selection of Thrust Restraints for Above Ground Pressure Pipes With Expansion Joints

Pressure pipes used in various industrial applications are subjected to internal pressures of a high order by the fluids carried by them. Though such pipes of various materials of construction are designed to withstand these pressures, strength and stability of pipes at bends either below or above ground require careful examination to achieve external equilibrium specifically when diameters are large. The following discussion is intended to bring forth the different industrial practices in addressing the question of external stability of pipes at bends above ground under various operating conditions. It presents an analysis on the right selection of thrust restraints for such applications.

The balance of payments accounting as a factor for macroeconomic equilibrium achievement in an open economy

Purpose – To study the concept of the balance of payments (BOP) as the main international financial statement of a nation, to identify the causes and effects of its imbalances and the factors of achieving external equilibrium for a national economy, as well. Methods – The theoretical and methodological research is based on systematic, structural and functional analysis, logical abstraction, induction, deduction, as well as comparative and statistical analysis. Approach – The theoretical justification of the relationship between key figures of the balance of payments and the main macroeconomic identities, the research of the balance of payments regulation tools aimed at achieving its steady state as a precondition for open economy equilibrium. Findings – The rationale for choosing the balance of payments regulation policy based on using some theories aimed at searching for an optimal balance or so-called equilibrium between the development of external and internal factors of the economy. Thus, the study has shown that the practical implementation of these theoretical concepts finds its application in various ways of equalizing the balance of payments. The constituent elements of these concepts are the forms of equalization, the level of regulation, the methods and tools of state regulation.

Parametric study on kink instabilities of twisted magnetic flux ropes in the solar atmosphere

Aims. Twisted magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) in the solar atmosphere have been researched extensively because of their close connection to many solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, filaments, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In this work, we performed a set of 3D isothermal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical simulations, which use analytical twisted MFR models and study dynamical processes parametrically inside and around current-carrying twisted loops. We aim to generalize earlier findings by applying finite plasma β conditions. Methods. Inside the MFR, approximate internal equilibrium is obtained by pressure from gas and toroidal magnetic fields to maintain balance with the poloidal magnetic field. We selected parameter values to isolate best either internal or external kink instability before studying complex evolutions with mixed characteristics. We studied kink instabilities and magnetic reconnection in MFRs with low and high twists. Results. The curvature of MFRs is responsible for a tire tube force due to its internal plasma pressure, which tends to expand the MFR. The curvature effect of toroidal field inside the MFR leads to a downward movement toward the photosphere. We obtain an approximate internal equilibrium using the opposing characteristics of these two forces. A typical external kink instability totally dominates the evolution of MFR with infinite twist turns. Because of line-tied conditions and the curvature, the central MFR region loses its external equilibrium and erupts outward. We emphasize the possible role of two different kink instabilities during the MFR evolution: internal and external kink. The external kink is due to the violation of the Kruskal-Shafranov condition, while the internal kink requires a safety factor q = 1 surface inside the MFR. We show that in mixed scenarios, where both instabilities compete, complex evolutions occur owing to reconnections around and within the MFR. The S-shaped structures in current distributions appear naturally without invoking flux emergence. Magnetic reconfigurations common to eruptive MFRs and flare loop systems are found in our simulations.

Unconventional monetary policy ante litteram: Richard Kahn and the monetary policy debate during the works of the Radcliffe Committee

The appointment of a Committee on the Working of the Monetary System in 1957 (Radcliffe Committee) in the UK gave the occasion to debate innovative ideas in the field of monetary policy. Many prominent economists participated in the Committee’s works, which ended with the publication of the Radcliffe Report in 1959. Making an exception to the rule of not mentioning individual contributions, the Radcliffe Report claims to ‘follow Professor Kahn … in insisting upon the structure of interest rates rather than some notion of the “supply of money” as the centrepiece of monetary action’. As we reconstruct in the paper, Kahn based his proposals on a conceptual framework, emphasising the link between inflation, wages and aggregate demand and the importance of combining incomes policy and term-structure control in view of achieving external equilibrium, full employment and price stability. One finding of our research is that Kahn’s recommendations regarding term-structure control—with their relevance to the present day—are best understood in connection with his theory of liquidity preference as presented in Kahn (1954). We also find that the Radcliffe Committee, while espousing Kahn’s policy recommendations, surrounded them with so many caveats as to render them de facto inoperative. As we suggest in our reconstruction, this depends partly on institutional considerations and partly on differences of opinion between Kahn and the Radcliffe Committee regarding monetary policy transmission and the causes of inflation.

Analytical solution of the tokamak equilibrium. II. The free-boundary case

The free-boundary tokamak equilibrium problem is investigated by a surface current equivalence method applied on the plasma boundary. In addition, use is made of a spectral representation for the internal plasma flux surfaces as presented in Paper I [G. O. Ludwig, Phys. Plasma 24, 092502 (2017)]. The surface current distribution is determined by the Cauchy condition imposed by the external equilibrium coils on the plasma boundary. A self-consistent approximate analytic equilibrium is calculated for an up-down asymmetric configuration of the plasma contained by a simplified set of poloidal field coils representing an ITER-like tokamak.

Heavily indebted poor countries initiative (HIPC), debt relief, economic stability and economic growth in Africa

Stabilization seeks to achieve internal and external equilibrium that is, to control the demand side of the economy, with the purpose of reducing size of government, inflation and quickly achieving a sustainable balance of payment position. In this paper, I investigated the impacts of HIPC initiative and debt relief on economic growth and economic stability in Africa. I also identify the determinants of economic performance using the World Bank data for the period 1990–2015 with 5-year panels. The results show that this initiative causes economic instability in Africa. The results also indicate that the long run effect of debt relief on economic growth is positive but in the short run debt relief has no significant effect on GDP per capita growth. However, in both the short run and the long run, debt relief reduces external balance on goods and services deficit and has no effect on inflation. The main determinants of economic performance in Africa are control of corruption, political stability, regulatory quality and education. In this perspective, governments of African countries should promote good governance, educate their population and revise trade agreements to provide insurance for economic growth and economic stability.

Organizations in balance: revitalizing the concept of organizational equilibrium

This article updates and revitalizes the classical concept of organizational equilibrium. First, different equilibrium theories are compared based on a substantial literature review. Second, equilibrium is re-defined through the development of a model comprising 1. internal and 2. external equilibrium dimensions. The construction process and the factors that influence it are described.

Impact of Retirement on Mental Health

Impact of Retirement on Mental Health

Thoron Mitigation System based on charcoal bed for applications in thorium fuel cycle facilities (part 1): Development of theoretical models for design considerations

Regulating the environmental discharge of 220Rn (historically known as thoron) and its decay products from thorium processing facilities is important for protection of environment and general public living in the vicinities. Activated charcoal provides an effective solution to this problem because of its high adsorption capacity to gaseous element like radon. In order to design and develop a charcoal based Thoron Mitigation System, a mathematical model has been developed in the present work for studying the 220Rn transport and adsorption in a flow through charcoal bed and estimating the 220Rn mitigation factor (MF) as a function of system and operating parameters. The model accounts for inter- and intra-grain diffusion, advection, radioactive decay and adsorption processes. Also, the effects of large void fluctuation and wall channeling on the mitigation factor have been included through a statistical model. Closed form solution has been provided for the MF in terms of adsorption coefficient, system dimensions, grain size, flow rate and void fluctuation exponent. It is shown that the delay effects due to intra grain diffusion plays a significant role thereby rendering external equilibrium assumptions unsuitable. Also, the application of the statistical model clearly demonstrates the transition from the exponential MF to a power-law form and shows how the occurrence of channels with low probability can lower mitigation factor by several orders of magnitude. As a part of aiding design, the model is further extended to optimise the bed dimensions in respect of pressure drop and MF. The application of the results for the design and development of a practically useful charcoal bed is discussed.

Como reverter a atual situação econômica?

Resumo O presente artigo objetiva apresentar uma proposição econômica keynesiano-institucionalista para a economia brasileira que seja capaz de assegurar crescimento econômico sustentável, estabilidade monetária e equilíbrios fiscal e externo.

Features of the sorption of phenylalanine by profiled ion-exchange membranes

Features of the equilibrium sorption of phenylalanine from neutral media by profiled ion-exchange membranes in a wide range of concentrations is studied under static conditions. The mechanism of phenylalanine sorption by ion-exchange membranes with profiled and smooth surfaces is discussed. It is shown that phenylalanine sorption is accompanied by the formation of spatial associative structures of the aminoacid in an external equilibrium solution, and in a solution of the membrane’s pore spaces or on its surface. The increased sorption capacity of the profiled membranes is explained by features of the microstructure of their surface and volume.

The production structure, exchange rate preferences and the short-run—Medium-run macrodynamics

This paper focuses on the role of the production structure in shaping output shares, wage bargaining and the dynamics of the real exchange rate in a Neo-Kaleckian macroeconomic model. While changes in the rate of capital utilization ensure the short-run equilibrium, in the medium run the real exchange rate must adjust to stabilize the labor market and the external sector. Interestingly, these variables define a trilemma in which it is not possible for workers to have their desired wage share, for firms to have their desired profit share in output and for the economy to have a stable deficit in current account to GDP ratio at the same time. Structural change allows for a way out of the trilemma as it makes possible a higher wage share for a given profit share with external equilibrium. The corollary is that distribution and high employment cannot be sustained solely by conventional fiscal and monetary policies: they also require industrial and technological policies that redefine the structural parameters of the system, as a form of reconciling conflicting claims with external equilibrium.

English

The stability of exchange rates plays a decisive role in a country’s economic development and internal and external equilibrium. Therefore, the prediction of short-term exchange rate is of vital importance to maintain a country’s economic stability and financial security. Traditional time series forecasting models are only based on historical data, which cannot reflect other important factors, like investors’ currency exchange expectations and their emotions. This study aims to build a web-searching index to predict the short-term exchange rate, which is based on web search data, the natural language processing and information retrieval sharing platform (NLPIR) which is a Chinese segmentation technique and the TextRank keywords extraction system. In this way, the study establishes a Conditional Autoregressive Model (CAR) model integrated with our web-searching index to include the investor’s expectations and emotions in the prediction, and therefore enhance prediction accuracy. The outcome shows that the accuracy of the CAR model based on search data can be significantly higher than other models. Besides, compared with traditional exchange rate prediction models, the integrated CAR model has a better fitting effect and a lower prediction error. Key words: Exchange rate prediction, web-searching index, big data, TextRank, NLPIR.

Volatility spillover effect between financial markets: evidence since the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism

The volatility spillover effect between the foreign exchange and stock markets has been a major issue in economic and financial studies. In this paper, GC-MSV model was used to study the spillover effect between the foreign exchange market and the stock market after the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation of dynamic price spillovers between the foreign exchange and stock markets. There are asymmetric volatility spillover effects between these two markets for both RMB stages—continued RMB appreciation or constant RMB shock (a significant reduction in appreciation). However, this has been reduced over time. In conclusion, The RMB exchange rate is a key variable that can affect the internal and external equilibrium of the national economy in an open economic environment, and the stock market is capable of quickly reflecting subtle changes in the real economy. In order to keep the stability of the financial markets and the healthy and rapid development of national economy, some suggestions were proposed.