External Economic Environment Research Articles

Multiscale dynamic interdependency between China’s crude oil futures and petrochemical-related commodity futures: An integrated perspective from the industry chain system

This paper examines the coupling of China’s petrochemical-related commodity futures from the perspective of an integrated system as well as the multiscale interdependency between this system and Shanghai crude oil futures (SCM) with two globally influential benchmarks, i.e., Brent and WTI, as comparisons. Our methods innovatively build on the multifractal theory and provide in-depth analysis across various time scales. The results show the dynamic coupling of China’s oil industry chain system (ICS) can reflect its level of systemic risk concentration well. The greater the time scale, the stronger the coupling. The abrupt deterioration of the external economic environment enhanced the impact of crude oil on the ICS, but the impact from SCM increased the most. Furthermore, the higher dependency preference of ICS for SCM confirms the effectiveness of this emerging futures market in reflecting domestic oil supply and demand but continuously weakens as the time scale increases, indicating the dominance of Brent and WTI in the long run.

Corporate green innovation under environmental regulation: The role of ESG ratings and greenwashing

China's economic trajectory has transitioned from prioritizing rapid growth to emphasizing quality, efficiency, and sustainability. In this context, balancing environmental protection with the promotion of a green economy has become increasingly significant. This study investigates the relationship between environmental regulation and green innovation in Chinese enterprises using data from listed companies spanning 2007 to 2019. The results indicate that environmental regulations positively influence green innovation among firms, a finding validated by robustness checks, including instrumental variable methods. Furthermore, the study identifies corporate greenwashing behaviors and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance as mediating factors. Firms resort to greenwashing strategies to mitigate regulatory pressures while simultaneously fulfilling their ESG responsibilities, thus contributing to green innovation. Additionally, the study reveals that the impact of environmental regulations on green innovation is heterogeneous, varying according to the external economic environment, firm ownership, and industry characteristics. The positive effect is more pronounced under lower levels of government intervention, in private enterprises, and among energy and new energy sectors. These findings underscore the nuanced dynamics between regulatory frameworks and corporate innovation in China.

The Impact Analysis of the Relationship Between Foreign Aid and Economic Development in Nigeria

This study examines the impacts of foreign direct investment (FDI) as a proxy for Foreign Aid, alongside other critical economic and political variables, on Nigeria's economic development. Utilizing an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model from 1981 to 2022, it explores the dynamics between FDI, trade openness, unemployment rate, corruption index, inflation rate, political stability, and population growth rate in shaping Nigeria's economic growth trajectory. The findings reveal that FDI significantly contributes to economic development, while trade openness highlights the importance of a conducive external economic environment. Conversely, the adverse effects of inflation and corruption highlight critical challenges that undermine the potential benefits of foreign aid and investment. This study highlights the complex relationship between foreign aid, economic policies, and institutional frameworks. It emphasizes Nigeria's need to bolster governance and macroeconomic stability to optimize the developmental impacts of foreign aid. Through empirical analysis, this research contributes to the discourse on development economics, offering professional insights into the conditions under which foreign aid can effectively foster sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

Environmental, Social, and Governance Information Rating and Firm Uncertainty Perception, Evidence from China Listed Firms

Measuring firm value from an environmental, social, and governance perspective is a core concept of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance), which contributes to the sustainable growth of firms. This paper aims to investigate the relationship between firms’ ESG performance and perceived economic uncertainty. Using a database of Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2020, we find that firms with a good ESG performance are better able to resist changes in the external economic environment in the ESG rating system which still holds after a series of robustness tests and a discussion of endogeneity. The reason for this is that the ESG rating system better reduces information uncertainty between firms and the market, which allows firms to better focus on improving their technological and profit levels. In addition, companies with good ESG performance can provide more returns to investors. Our results highlight the necessity of aligning the interests between superior and subordinate governments and the importance of the supervision of superior governments in environmental decentralization. Our findings highlight the role of information communication in the market, especially in developing countries with imperfect information disclosure. It is all the more important to reduce information uncertainty between firms and other market players through mechanism building to achieve the long-term survival of quality firms.

Multiple large shareholders, earnings management, and operating risk: Empirical evidence from China

This study uses the annual financial data of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2010 to 2020 to investigate the relationship between multiple large shareholders (MLS) and earnings management (EM). After analyzing the samples using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model and endogenous switching regression (ESR) model, the empirical results show that the presence of MLS can increase corporate EM activities and the MLS have a significantly positive effect on EM in both the treatment and control groups. In addition, this conclusion still holds after conducting multiple robustness tests. The cross-section analysis shows that the external audit supervision quality, institutional shareholders, and the uncertainty of the external economic environment have significant impacts on the baseline model results. Lastly, mediation effect analysis shows that the presence of MLS increases the corporate operating risk through EM activities. The conclusions of this paper are critical for policymakers to supervise China’s capital market, improve the level of corporate governance of China’s listed firms, and further promote reform of ownership structure.

Research on the Challenges and Countermeasures of the Optimization and Adjustment of Foreign Trade Dependence in Guangzhou

This paper studies the challenges and countermeasures of the optimization and adjustment of Guangzhou's foreign trade dependence. By analyzing the historical evolution of Guangzhou's foreign trade dependence, its impact on economic growth and dependence on the external economic environment, it reveals its shortcomings in market diversification, industrial structure and enterprise innovation ability. In view of these problems, the market diversification strategy, industrial structure upgrading and optimization countermeasures to improve the innovation ability of enterprises are put forward. Only through various comprehensive measures can we effectively reduce the risks caused by excessive dependence on foreign trade in Guangzhou and promote the sustainable development of its economy.

Information and analytical support for economic evaluation and digital indication of innovative development of a developer enterprise in construction

In the conditions of functioning of construction enterprises, the importance of relations between the development of a construction and investment project and its stakeholders (stakeholders), which influence various aspects of project activities in order to make a profit, is growing. Reducing the effectiveness of interaction between construction developers and their partners, such as customers, contractors, design organizations, competitors and public organizations, requires the development of theoretical and methodological foundations for the implementation of a stakeholder-oriented strategy for managing construction enterprises. This strategy includes the organization of financing and implementation of a real estate development project, ta king into account the constraints and with the aim of obtaining commercial benefits. In today's world, construction development is a n area that is constantly being influenced by innovative technologies and strategies. The economic development of a country is determined by the efficiency of construction enterprises, which are an important indicator of the status and trends of the internal and external economic environment. The article explores innovative directions aimed at updating business processes and organizational structures of enterprises in the field of construction development. By analyzing and systematizing modern approaches to management and the use of advanced technologies, the article considers such innovative areas as the introduction of the Building Information Modeling (BIM) system, the use of intelligent management systems, the development of digital platforms, and others. Coverage of these areas will allow to provide an economic assessment and determine the criteria for qualimetric and factor analysis of indicators of innovative development of enterprises in the construction industry and their impact on the efficiency of business processes and competitiveness of enterprises. The economic assessment of innovative development in the development system is an important tool for enterprises seeking to achieve sustainable growth and success. Innovations have become a key success factor in the modern economy, especially in the field of construction and real estate development. Ukraine, as a country with active construction activity, has a great potential for innovative changes in this sector. However, for the effective implementation of innovations in the activities of construction enterprises, a deep economic assessment and economic and managerial analysis are required. This article serves as a source for studying and understanding innovative trends in construction development and considers the possibilities of their implementation to improve the efficiency of management and economic diagnostics and digital administration of directive indicators for assessing the innovative development of a construction developer enterprise.

РЕПУТАЦІЙНИЙ МЕНЕДЖМЕНТ ЗАКЛАДУ ВИЩОЇ ОСВІТИ: СУТНІСТЬ ТА ЧИННИКИ ВПЛИВУ

This article explores the concept of reputation management in higher education institutions (HEIs) and the factors that influence it. The authors analyze how changes in the external economic environment and events within the country affect the perception of HEIs and their competence in maintaining a positive image. The article considers the factors influencing the formation of HEI reputation and classifies them. The authors emphasize the importance of timely updating reputational strategies depending on various influencing factors, which will allow effective interaction with all stakeholders and form a positive reputation

ПОСТРОЕНИЕ АЛГОРИТМИКИ АНАЛИЗА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ РЕЗУЛЬТАТИВНОСТИ ТРАНСРЕГИОНАЛЬНОГО ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО КЛАСТЕРА В КОНТЕКСТЕ ЦИКЛА ПРИРАЩЕНИЯ УРОВНЯ УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯ С ПРИМЕНЕНИЕМ ИНСТРУМЕНТАРИЯ СОБЫТИЙНОГО МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЯ

The study aims to construct a model of the cycle increasing the level of sustainable development for regions whose enterprises are united by target transregional industrial clusters, operating coherently in the context of their influence on sustainable development, internal cluster structure, and external economic environment. This article presents the main results of constructing the second and third levels of the cycle model, and outlines an algorithm for analyzing conversionlevel interrelationships. Mathematical event modeling tools are employed to model the economic performance of the industrial complex in a transregional industrial cluster and the degree of improvement in the sustainable development of the subject/ group of subjects. The results of multilevel modeling, which are used as the main vector of the study's goalsetting, include aggregate indicators that form the input information array for computing the conversion and the comprehensive real influence impulse of transregional industrial coherence on the advancement of sustainable development in the region/regions.

The early prediction of bank defaults by central banks

This article elucidates the approach used by central banks to monitor bank stability at an early stage. Existing default prediction models use CAMELS to estimate bank stability. This research, using Russian regional data, suggests that the internal bank data available to central banks are crucial for default prediction and are complementary to CAMELS. The combined use of central bank payment system data and Basel norms improves the quality of default prediction, benefiting from the absence of information asymmetry. The empirical results support the need to use three categories of indicators to predict banks? financial stability: CAMELS, the indicators available to central banks, and the indicators of the external economic environment. Central banks can use internal payment system data to analyse banks? financial conditions in real time. The use of external indicators is especially significant in Russia, given the wide disparities in the economic development across Russia?s regions.

Formation of the Relationship between the Exchange Rate and the Investment Yield of Pension Assets in Kazakhstan: Causes and Consequences

The efficiency of pension asset management, reflected in their performance, determines the stability of the funded pension system of Kazakhstan, and also has the potential to significantly affect the budget process, since the state guarantees recipients a positive real return on their pension savings and compensates from the budget for losses incurred during periods when inflation exceeds the nominal rate of return. The need to ensure a positive real return on pension assets managed by the National Bank of Kazakhstan determines not only the high relevance of the issue of investment management itself, but also other aspects that affect the return, including changes in the exchange rate of the Kazakhstani tenge. The subject of the article is the impact of the tenge exchange rate on the profitability of pension assets, which can be very significant, since it forms one of the main components of investment income — income from foreign currency revaluation. This influence can also act as a factor in the formation of the tenge exchange rate during periods when the real return of pension assets decreases due to the negative situation in the financial markets and high inflation, and this thesis reflects the scientific novelty of the article. The assessment of the hypothesis about the formation of the relationship between the exchange rate of the Kazakhstani currency and the investment yield of pension assets is the aim of this work, and the identification of the main causes and consequences of this phenomenon is its task. Comparative and correlation analysis of indicators of investment return of pension assets, changes in the exchange rate of the Kazakhstani currency, parameters of the external sector and others were used as research methods. The results of the analysis confirm the existence of a relationship between the indicators of profitability of pension assets and the tenge exchange rate, and allow us draw the conclusion that this profitability has an indirect impact on the formation of the Kazakhstani currency exchange rate over the past few years, which has been characterized by non-standard dynamics in the context of a significant improvement in the external economic environment.

Conceptual and analytical features of the attribution of multi-project activities of enterprises in the environment of construction development

The development of the state's economy depends on the efficiency of construction enterprises, as one of the indicators reflecting the state and trends of the internal and external economic environment. In the conditions of the functioning of construction enterprises, the importance of relations between the development of the construction and investment project and its stakeholders (project participants, interested persons) is increasing, which affect the resulting indicators as a complex set of organizational, factual and legal actions in the process of professional entrepreneurial activity aimed at creating and (or ) conversion of real estate objects for the purpose of obtaining profit from such transformations. In this context, it should be noted the decrease in the effectiveness of the interaction of construction developers, namely with customers of construction products, contractors, design organizations, competitors, public organizations. In such conditions, there is a need for the formation of theoretical and methodological foundations for the development and implementation of a stakeholder-oriented management strategy of construction enterprises as a method of organizing the investment process, which aims to organize financing and the implementation of a real estate development project within the given time and within the relevant restrictions in order to obtain a commercial benefits The article proposes a definition of the morphological classification of the essence of the concept of "development" in the construction industry on the basis of strategic contours and social directions and is determined by functional, resulting, structural, process, strategic, complex features, the relationships of which have a certain level of risk and threats. Risk and profitability are considered when forming an investment portfolio as two interdependent categories. The formalization of the amount of risk, which is evaluated according to the following parameters: the mathematical (average) expectation of the value of profitability, as well as the degree of variability of profitability, has been carried out.

The global conditions of China's economic development: How does globalisation affect China in the context of Kornai's Frankenstein metaphor?

AbstractThe objective of this study is to identify how globalisation influences China and how China affects globalisation in the context of János Kornai's Frankenstein metaphor. Kornai (2019) felt moral responsibility for unwillingly contributing with his advice in the 1980s to the birth of a modern version of Frankenstein, the Monster which his creators could not control. A crucial guiding principle of this paper is how the US and the advanced democratic economies can respond to Kornai's dilemma and reconcile the diverging requirements of economic interests with national security priorities. There is a research gap in the systematic mapping of the external economic environment on China's development. The primary conclusion of this paper is that China is less dependent on the rest of the world than the world on China. As the de-risking concept suggests, trade restrictions and domestic industrial policy measures focused on a narrow range of strategic sectors should be combined with unlimited trade and cooperation in the remaining non-strategic sectors. This study's conceptual and methodological framework can be used to analyse the relationship between advanced democratic economies and autocratic regimes in Kornai's Frankenstein dilemma.

Market inefficiency spillover network across different regimes

This study examines risk transmission among 34 stock markets from the perspective of market inefficiency spillover effects. We suggest the use of the hidden Markov model along with the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to measure the degree of market efficiency for both bull and bear regimes. Diebold–Yilmaz spillover indices are used to document the asymmetric characteristics of market inefficiency spillovers in bull and bear regimes. When the market crashes or bubbles and the external economic and financial environment worsens, inefficiency spillovers increase significantly.

Audit Data and Management Platform Based on Intelligent Algorithm

Due to the uncertainty of the external economic environment and the changes caused by new technologies in the new era, there are still many deficiencies in the current financial statement audit. The use of new technology can optimize the audit process, reduce audit practice risks and improve audit efficiency. Therefore, it is necessary to study the intelligent audit of financial statements. The purpose of this paper is to study the audit data analysis and management platform based on intelligent algorithms. This paper focuses on the construction purpose and content of the audit data analysis and management platform, and analyzes the specific requirements of some functional modules in the platform according to the audit workflow and business requirements. At the same time, this paper also describes the overall design architecture of the platform, which mainly uses the isolated point mining method for enterprise intelligent audit. This paper takes it as an effective method to analyze the problems existing in the internal audit of enterprises, and constructs the audit model of benefit-cost matching, and verifies the effectiveness of the algorithm through an example. There are four isolated points in the gross profit rate of catering of an enterprise.

IDENTIFICATION OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FACTORS OF VILLAGE-OWNED ENTERPRISES SUMBER SEJAHTERA AT PUJON KIDUL VILLAGE, MALANG REGENCY

To strengthen the village economy, Village-Owned Enterprises (BUMDes) are commercial units owned and controlled by the government. To improve the local economy, BUMDes development activities have expanded in East Java. But there has been an outbreak of the COVID-19 virus that has hit the entire world, causing many negative aspects, including social, political, and economic life. One of the businesses affected by the economic downturn is the BUMDes. Aware of the internal and external environmental conditions of BUMDes became the target of research. 7S McKinsey's and PESTLE methods were used to facilitate the research. The 7S McKinsey approach is used to identify an organization's internal components, including strategy, system, structure, staff, style, skills, and shared values. PESTLE approach is used to determine how an organization affects the external economic environment, including political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental aspects. The results showed that the pandemic impacted business units in BUMDes. From the results of consumer tourism assessments, consumers or users of products or services most visitors feel that the tourism environment is very attractive, beautiful, clean, and comfortable, feel suitable to subscribe to products or services.

Development and justification of the system methodological approach to assessing the investment business project implementation efficiency under conditions of the external market environment factors impact

Evaluating the effectiveness of the implementation of an investment project is a key issue when making management decisions both at the stage of setting up a startup and for expanding an existing business. This paper reports a systematic approach to building a mathematical model to solve the task of forecasting the effectiveness of business projects, taking into account the influence of factors of the external economic environment. Proposed factors include the impact of supply and demand on the price of goods, political and industry risks, the volume of commodity supply and sales. In view of this, a method for calculating the political component of the discount coefficient using the Fourier series has been proposed. Using the theory of differential equations, correlation and regression analysis, a mathematical model for forecasting indicators of efficiency of business project implementation taking into account the influence of factors of the external economic environment has been constructed. Based on it, a generalized algorithm for applying a mathematical model to predict the effectiveness of investment projects in various business sectors has been developed. The results from applying differential equations and variable discount coefficient showed a decrease in NPV by 14 %, and PI by 5.1 %, due to more accurate consideration of the political component in calculating the discount factor. Also, with the influence of supply and demand on the price of goods and nonlinear cash flows, it was found that the payback period does not clearly indicate the effectiveness of the implementation of an investment business project. Determining these factors provides more accurate information to the investor or business owner when forecasting the stability of a business project for making management decisions on its implementation

БЪЛГАРСКАТА ИКОНОМИКА ПРЕЗ 2021 – 2022 Г. – МЕЖДУ ИКОНОМИЧЕСКОТО ВЪЗСТАНОВЯВАНЕ И ОПАСЕНИЯТА ЗА СТАГФЛАЦИЯ

The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2021 and early 2022. The main sectors of the economy (real, fiscal, foreign, and financial) are examined, and the labour market is analysed. We assess the current policies being implemented in Bulgaria, considering regional and global developments and trends. Based on specific conclusions, we make recommendations for mitigating high-risk price dynamics, preserving incomes and employment, and ensuring fiscal stability. Employing a structural macroeconomic model, a reasoned medium-run macroeconomic scenario is proposed, reflecting different assumptions about both the dynamics of the external economic environment and the expected economic policies. The analysis of the macroeconomic situation and projections for the development of the Bulgarian economy are based on key factors such as accelerating inflation, uncertainties surrounding the epidemic situation caused by COVID-19, geopolitical turbulences in the region, and the expected acceleration of investment activity through the implementation of the projects of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

Management of energy industry enterprises based on the sustainable development concept

Methods. Sustainable development of energy company is affected significantly by principals of external economic environment that is local, national and global economies. The problem of choosing a model of sustainable development of a mining enterprise is determined, which makes it possible to predict the trajectory of its development in the short and long term, the choice of optimal solutions. It was emphasized that the cluster mechanism is an effective and efficient tool for stimulating the development of the regional economy. The theoretical foundations of the essence of clusters, their effective formation and functioning have been analyzed. The understanding of the essence of the regional cluster in modern business conditions and the need to improve the conceptual foundations of its definition are studied. Results. It is proposed to manage the mining enterprise on the basis of sustainability based on the principle of sustainable development based on the value of the object. The main purpose of this method is to monitor production costs in order to reduce them and redistribute overhead costs. Novelty. The concept of «autonomous specialized poly-structural cluster» of the mining region is proposed, which, unlike the existing ones, provides for the combination of business entities not on the basis of belonging to one industry through the manufacture of relevant products and providing services, but on the basis of belonging to a single resource center of the cluster, which provides an opportunity to use a complex of resources of natural and man-made origin for production and provision of services in various industries. Practical value. The integration of these provisions in order to adapt to the harmonious development of the energy enterprise can help resolve the conflict between the principles of sustainable development and the rules of the market economy.

중국 산업구조 변화가 기업의 기술혁신에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

This study analyzed how the level of change in China’s industrial structure affected the technological innovation of companies. After China’s accession to the WTO (2001) and the global financial crisis in 2008, the internal and external economic environment has changed, and the subject of rapid economic growth and the level of change in China’s industrial structure and its accompanying impact has become the subject of research by scholars at home and abroad.
 This study classified industrial structure changes into industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure advancement, and then verified the degree of optimization of industrial structure changes. Industrial structure rationalization is an indicator that measures the level of aggregation between industries. It reflects the degree of balanced development among industries and the degree of rational allocation of resources, and evaluates the degree of balance between factor input and output. Industrial structure upgrading is an indicator that evaluates the degree of optimization of industrial structure restructuring. Both industrial structure rationalization and industrial structure upgrading affect and are influenced by economic growth and ripple effects between industries, as well as being influenced by the local economy.
 In this study, a Stata regression analysis was conducted using panel data from 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China during the period 2009-2020. In this study, general effect model, mixed effect model, fixed effect model, random effect model, and 2SLS test were compared and analyzed, and the results were compared and analyzed by dividing the region into eastern and coastal regions and inland regions. In addition, verification was conducted by adding variables as key factors influencing technological innovation.
 As a result of the study, it was found that the level of industrial structure rationalization did not have a significant impact on the technological innovation of companies in the eastern and coastal areas, and in the inland area, technology content was relatively low or small and medium-sized enterprises were mainly distributed, so only specific industries affected only technological innovation. appeared to affect As for the level of advanced industrial structure, there is a lot of input into innovative technologies for leading industries in the eastern and coastal regions, which are relatively developed regions, but all of these innovative technologies have not been achieved in sales output or the effects due to the time lag have not yet appeared. appeared to be There are many industries with low technology content in Banman and inland areas, and it is found that technological innovation of companies leads well to sales output.