Export Value Research Articles

Supply risk propagation in international trade networks of the tungsten industry chain

Tungsten plays an irreplaceable role in industrial development and high technology and is vital for national security and economic development. Supply and demand imbalances, and geopolitical and social health events, among other factors, lead to supply risks for tungsten resources in different economies. The existing studies have focused on modeling supply risk in the upstream mineral trade and lack a quantitative analysis of supply risk propagation in tungsten product trade networks from an industry chain perspective. Therefore, this paper uses trade data from 2009 to 2020 to construct an international trade network for tungsten products and applies a cascading failure model to simulate the risk propagation process in the trade network of the industry chain. The results show that China, Germany, and the US have the greatest impact ranges. The influence of economies is related to the trade export value, number of trade partners, and location. The influence of economies on the trade of midstream and downstream products is significantly related to intermediary capacity, the level of economic development, and trade closeness, with technological factors becoming increasingly important as the chain extends downward. Supply risk in upstream and midstream products is propagated mainly through indirect routes, whereas risk in downstream products is propagated mainly through direct trade relationships. The number of affected economies increases substantially when there is a small decline in the export value of tungsten products from core economies. The results can provide reference and decision support for different economies to secure the supply security and sustainability of tungsten resources.

COMPARING FORECASTS OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR EXPORT VALUES USING SARIMA AND LONG SHORT-TERM MEMORY MODELS

Indonesia's agricultural sector plays a crucial role in the national economy, with significant export potential and supporting the livelihoods of the majority of the population. As part of the government's vision to make Indonesia the world's food barn by 2045, increasing the volume and value of agricultural product exports is a primary focus, making export value forecasting essential for supporting strategic decision-making. Sequential data analysis is an important approach in analyzing data collected over a specific period. This study aims to compare two popular methods in forecasting the export value of the agricultural sector, namely the Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. Monthly agricultural export data from West Java Province from January 2013 to February 2024 were used as the dataset. The best SARIMA model generated was (1,1,1)(0,1,1)12, while the optimal parameters for the LSTM model were neuron: 50, dropout rate: 0.3, number of layers: 2, activation function: relu, epochs: 500, batch size: 64, optimizer: Adam, and learning rate: 0.01. Evaluation was performed using the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) method to measure the accuracy of both models in forecasting the export value of the agricultural sector. The results showed that the LSTM model outperformed the SARIMA model, with a lower RMSE value (SARIMA: 4182.133 and LSTM: 1939.02). This research provides valuable insights for decision-makers in planning agricultural sector export strategies in the future. With this comparison, it is expected to provide better guidance in selecting forecasting methods suitable for the characteristics of the data.

Spatial distribution and influencing factors of China’s overseas farmland investment projects under the background of food security

Since the 21st century, overseas farmland investment has gradually become the focus of research in the field of transnational agricultural investment. Under the background of China’s “going out” strategy, exploring the spatial distribution pattern and influencing factors of China’s overseas farmland investment activities in different regions of the world and reducing domestic food supply pressure through effective use of overseas farmland resources has become an important path for China to ensure food security. Based on the case data of China’s overseas cultivated Land investment in the Land Matrix database, this paper sorted out the utilization status of China’s global cultivated land resources, and analyzed the spatial distribution and influencing factors by using spatial analysis method and grey correlation analysis method. The results show that: (1) At present, the host countries of China’s overseas cultivated land investment have obvious spatial aggregation, showing the spatial characteristics of “small agglomeration and large dispersion,” and have the characteristics of distribution along the border and river; (2) China’s overseas farmland investment is affected by geo-economy, resource base, geo-culture and geopolitics, and the degree of impact is weakened in turn. Among them, the average annual import and export value, total water resources and other indicators have a significant impact on the investment choice of Chinese enterprises. Based on this, on the basis of identifying the spatial distribution pattern of China’s global overseas farmland investment and development and analyzing its key driving factors, this study proposed the path that overseas farmland investment and development can help improve the resilience of food system with the goal of ensuring the food security of sustainable agricultural system. It provides a theoretical basis for the country to formulate food security strategy based on overseas farmland investment and guide enterprises to invest overseas farmland.

Export performance and direction of major agricultural commodities from Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu is India's second-largest economy and its agricultural performance is also significant. The state has been involved in trading of agricultural commodities for many years. In recent years, due to change in export policy of major commodities, it is necessary to measure the performance and direction at state level. Hence, the present study aims to analyze the trends and direction of the trade for selected agricultural commodities from Tamil Nadu. Port-wise export data of the major agricultural commodities from Tamil Nadu were used to assess the export dynamics during 2007-2022. Non-basmati rice, pulses and groundnut were selected for the study based on their significance in the state agriculture as well as in the export trade. The results of the study revealed that the export growth of pulses was the highest among the selected commodities with 21.8% and 28.1% in terms of quantity and value respectively followed by non-basmati with 16.27% and 20.1% in quantity and value terms respectively. However, the growth rate of export quantity of groundnut was negative with -0.1% whereas export value growth was positive with 5.9%. This revealed that export performance of pulses and non-basmati rice was better than groundnut. The Direction of export analysis revealed that Bangladesh and Benin for non-basmati rice, Sri Lanka, China and Singapore for pulses and Sri Lanka and Singapore for Groundnut would be the stable market for export from Tamil Nadu.

Penentuan Model Terbaik dalam Pengaruh Lapangan Usaha dan Nilai Ekspor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia

This study aims to evaluate the effect of business sector and export value on economic growth in Indonesia using Generalised Linear Models (GLM) and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approaches with Gamma and Gaussian distributions. The results showed that agriculture, forestry and fishing (PKP), mining and quarrying (PP) and fiscal (PK) sectors have a significant impact on economic growth, while real estate (RE) and export value (NE) are not significant. Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best model is the GLM with Gaussian distribution, which provides a balance between model complexity and the ability to explain the data. The INLA method provided consistent results with informative confidence intervals, but did not outperform the GLM in model evaluation. This study provides insights for policy makers to prioritise the PKP, PP and PK sectors in promoting economic growth and recommends further research with additional variables and more complex analytical methods for more in-depth results.

The influence of foreign debt, exchange rate and export values on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves

This research aims to determine the influence of government foreign debt, private foreign debt, exchange rate and export value on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The data used in this research is secondary data by collecting data from the Central Statistics Agency and Bank Indonesia for the period 2007 to 2023. The data analysis method used in this research was multiple linear regression. Based on the results of this analysis, this research shows that partially government foreign debt and private foreign debt have a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves, the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves and the value of exports has a positive and insignificant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. . Meanwhile, simultaneously government foreign debt, private foreign debt, the exchange rate and the value of exports have a significant effect on Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves. The results of the coefficient of determination (R2) value show 0.926, which means that Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves are influenced by government foreign debt, private foreign debt, the exchange rate and export value by 90% while the remaining 10% is influenced by other factors not included in this research.

Posisi Biji Pala Indonesia di Pasar Internasional

To maintain and increase its export market share, Indonesia must strengthen nutmeg's competitiveness and export performance, a strategic commodity in the international market. Therefore, it is important to analyze the position of Indonesian nutmeg in global trade, especially about competitive pressures from other countries such as India and the Netherlands. This analysis aims to provide an overview of strategies or policies that can be used to maintain and increase Indonesia's nutmeg export market share globally. This study aims to (1) assess the market share of Indonesian nutmeg exports in the international market and (2) analyze the market position of Indonesian nutmeg exports using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) approach. This study relies on secondary data in the form of the value and volume of nutmeg exports from the world's major exporting countries. The data used is a monthly time series for 2013-2022, focusing on the Harmonized System (HS) code 090811, namely whole nutmeg seeds (neither crushed nor ground). The analysis shows that Indonesia has a significant market share in the global nutmeg trade. However, Indonesia faces stiff competition, especially from India and the Netherlands.

The Rubber Export Performance to the United States: A Comparison Between Indonesia and Thailand

This research is used to compare the rubber export performance between Indonesia and Thailand to the United States market. The performance’s aspects will be compared with the volume and export value in the period of 2012-2022, the strict competitiveness of the United States market, and the factors that impact the volume and export value of rubber in the United States market. Secondary data from 2013-2022 was collected from any sources. This method of analysis used descriptive quantitative, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), and multiple linear regression. The result shows that the export performance in Indonesia suffered a drop in volume aspects; however, the export volume from Thailand to the United States experienced an increase. The RCA rubber in Indonesia has an average value of 77.75 (strong competitiveness to the United States market), while the rubber quality in Thailand is about 19.28. The factors of world prices and productivity influence the export value of rubber from Indonesia to the United States; however, inflation, the rate of exchange of the dollar, and the income per capita of the United States do not influence the export value of rubber from Indonesia. The world price factor, the rate of exchange of the United States dollar against the Thai Baht, and the income per capita of Thailand have a positive effect on rubber exports from Thailand to the United States. The policy implication is Indonesian government should pay attention to maintain rubber production sustainability to defense the competitiveness of the export.

Analysis of Export Potential and Trade Direction of Afghanistan Figs in Global Market

The expansion of Afghanistan's share in the global market is critical for the country's development, particularly given its chronic trade deficit. Although Afghanistan is renowned for producing and exporting high-quality fruits, especially figs, it has not fully utilized its export potential. Based on secondary data from ITC and FAOSTAT, this study analyzed the export performance of Afghan figs from 2000 to 2019. An exponential growth function, the Cuddy-Della-Valle instability Index, Revealed Comparative Advantage indices and Markov chain analysis was employed. The results showed that fig exports grew positively with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.20%, exhibiting low instability. Afghanistan demonstrated significant export potential and maintained a strong and consistent comparative advantage in exporting figs, particularly to Pakistan, followed by India and the UAE. In 2019, the total export potential for Afghan figs was estimated at US$ 211.00 million, compared to an actual export value of US$ 91.60 million. The largest untapped export potential was identified in India, followed by the USA and Canada. While Afghanistan has retained its market share in some regions, it risks losing its share in others. The study recommends reorienting production and marketing systems to address these challenges and align them with global market demands. Additionally, progressive export promotion strategies should be implemented to diversify export destinations and minimize market risks.

The competitive advantages of Sudanese live sheep exporting in export to international market

This study examines factors determining the competitive advantage of live sheep exports from Sudan, assuming Gawad et. al. (2014) model advanced from Porter (1990) Diamond model of competitive advantage of nations. The results of the study showed that sheep production during the period of the study for selected countries are fluctuating, especially Australia it had a high decreasing in production.in recent years. For exports quantities of live sheep noticed that Sudan and Somalia increasing stocks export sheep to the global market, in reverse Australia has a reduction in export quantities especially in current years. The multiple regression showed that R^2 is high 95%,94%93%for Sudan, Somalia, Jordan respectively this is agreed with model expectations. Expect Australia the result shows that R^2 was 78%. The export value in all countries show an unexpected negative significant response to production for Sudan and Australia, insignificant for Somalia and Jordan. On other hand, all selected countries show a positive response to the value of World imports, except Somalia. Export values of live sheep in Sudan show significant positive response to export value of Somalia, in reverse Somalia export value show negative response to Australian export value. This means Somalia is the competitor country for Australia and also for Sudan in spite of its weak contribution in world imports. For all countries, export values positively respond to export quantity indicating prosperous opportunity for growth of export from all selected countries.

Comparative Analysis of Export Competitiveness Specialization Levels of Türkiye and Leading Countries in the Cereal Sector

The aim of this study is to determine the export competition specialization level of the cereal sector of Türkiye and the ten countries (USA, Germany, France, India, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, Australia and Russia) that have the largest share in cereal exports and to analyze them from a comparative perspective. In this direction, the export and import values of the said countries for the period 2013-2022 were taken from the WITS (World Integrated Trade Solution) database. Analyzes, SITC Rev. it was made using the Revealed Comparative Advantages (RCA) method for 3 cereal sub-product groups in the product group “04- Cereals, cereal products” belonging to 3 groups. According to the Net Export Index results, it has been detected that Germany, India, Brazil, Türkiye, Ukraine (except 0481), Russia, Argentina and Australia (except 0471) specialize in the export of all sub-product groups. However, it is concluded that the USA could not specialize in the export of any of the aforementioned sub-product groups. In addition, it has been determined that France and Canada only specialize in the export of the 0472 coded product group. Balassa Index results show that these countries have a competitive disadvantage in all cereal sub-product groups.

Trends in Indonesia's Fishery Commodity Exports

Indonesia is one of the largest seafood producing countries in the world, with significant fisheries potential to support national economic growth. This study aim to analyzes the export volume and value trends of Indonesia's fishery products from 2018 to 2023, focusing on key commodities such as shrimp, tuna, seaweed, crabs, and lobster. The data used includes annual export volume and value for each commodity. The analysis results show that the volume of Indonesia's fishery exports fluctuated, with a significant increase until 2020 (1,262,830 tons) and a decline in 2021 and 2022, although it remained stable in 2023 (1,221,196 tons). The export value also showed a significant increasing trend, peaking in 2022 at 6,242,085 USD, before decreasing to 5,630,947 USD in 2023. Despite the decline in the last two years, the fishery sector in Indonesia continues to make a significant contribution to the national economy, with key commodities maintaining high competitiveness in the international market. These findings are important for the development of strategies that can boost Indonesia's fishery exports and strengthen its position as a leading global exporter.

Hatay’ın Su ürünleri ihracatını canlandırma yolunda zorluklar: Karşılaştırmalı bir analiz (2008-2023)

A comparative analysis of seafood exports in the Hatay region between 2008 and 2023, in relation to overall trends in Türkiye and different regions, was conducted. Seafood export data was obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute. The export amount has been in a long-term decline fishing and seafood production potential of Hatay, contrary to the general trend in Türkiye. Specifically, the export amount decreased by 62% since 2018, while it decreased by 22.65% in 2023 compared to the previous year. This ongoing downward trend can be attributed to the COVID-19, Syrian civil war, and the recent devastating earthquake in the region. Despite the high potential for seafood production in the region, investments have been limited due to the lack of allocation in organized industrial zones. Additionally, the absence of a wholesale fish market is a major issue preventing the emergence of a regional market. All these factors have caused disruptions in the supply chain and production, increased input costs, and market uncertainties both domestically and internationally. This indicates that infrastructure investments in the region must be prioritized by all stakeholders, the central authority, decisionmakers and policymakers for sustainable seafood exports contributing to regional development. In conclusion, despite the strong industrial and logistics infrastructure in Iskenderun Bay, the seafood sector in Hatay has failed to reach its full potential, unlike the national trend in Türkiye. This shortfall is directly reflected in export values. Therefore, necessary measures must be taken to effectively utilize the region's seafood potential.

ESTIMASI UMUR GURITA (Octopus cyanea) DI KECAMATAN PRINGGABAYA DAN POTO TANO MENGGUNAKAN METODE STYLET INCREMENT ANALYSIS (SIA)

Octopus cyanea can be found in coral reef habitats and is an important and potential species for Indonesia. As other species near coastal areas began to decline, octopus became an important source of livelihood for small-scale fishers. Despite its considerable social and economic importance and the high value of octopus exports, Indonesia has no management plan for octopus fisheries. This research aims to estimate the age of an octopus using the incremental stylet analysis method by counting the growth rings in the stylet (reduced shell inside the octopus's head). Data was taken from 3 villages: Poto Tano, Ketapang and Seruni Mumbul, Pringgabaya District, East Lombok Regency, West Nusa Tenggara Province and Poto Tano Village, Poto Tano District, West Sumbawa Regency, West Nusa Tenggara Province. A total of 295 octopuses (141 females and 154 males) were sampled and examined for their stylets by cutting them and observing them with a microscope to calculate the growth rings. The male octopuses observed were between 41 – 176 days old with an average age of 94 days while the female octopus observed were between 41 – 176 days old with an average age of 92 days. The weight when 50% of the population begins to mature is based on analysis using a linear growth model, female octopus begin to mature at a weight of 2,025 grams, while male octopus begin to mature at a weight of 1,804 grams. The smallest adult female octopus was found at 600 grams, while the smallest adult male octopus was found at 400 grams. Keywords: Small-scale fishers; coastal areas; growth rings; octopus weight

Smallholder Inclusion Through Cooperative Contract Farming of Cavendish Banana Farmers in Davao del Norte, Philippines: A Meta‐Frontier Analysis

ABSTRACTAs the third‐highest global supplier of Cavendish bananas, the Philippine banana industry has a vital role in rural development. We compared farmers' technical efficiency (TE) and production performance across different contract farming arrangements: individual contracts, cooperative contracts, and growers without a contract. Using a random sample of 186 farmers in Davao del Norte, Philippines, we used meta‐frontier Data Envelopment Analysis to calculate TE scores and then use a truncated regression with bootstrapping to model the efficiency sources. We applied propensity score matching to minimize observable bias resulting from self‐selection among farmers participating in contract farming. The results across returns‐to‐scale assumptions and matching methods reveal that cooperative contract farmers have significantly higher TE and revenue performance than individual and noncontract farmers, primarily due to high export‐quality production and associated premium prices. Individual contract farmers were also more technically efficient and had higher returns than noncontract farmers. Smallholder farmers tend to participate more in cooperative contract farming. Thus, cooperative contracts should include smallholder farmers in export value chains to improve smallholder farmer income. This strategy will lead to the formation of inclusive agrifood value chains in Mindanao, Philippines.

Analisis pengaruh nilai ekspor dan investasi bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dalam perspektif syariah

This research examines the impact of export value and investment on Indonesia's economic growth from 2013 to 2022 from an Islamic perspective. Using secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the World Bank, the Error Correction Model method is applied to analyze the long-term and short-term relationships between variables. Stationarity Test, R-Square Test, F Test, and T Test are used to ensure the model's validity. The research results show that export value and investment significantly affect long-term economic growth. In the short term, exports are significant at the 5 percent significance level, and investment is significant at the 10 percent significance level for economic growth. From the Islamic perspective, the economic growth resulting from increased exports and investment positively impacts the economic and social dynamics of society, ensuring a fair distribution of welfare. By applying Sharia principles, the benefits of economic growth can be felt evenly, avoiding unethical practices. Exports and investment are crucial factors in driving Indonesia's economic growth, while Sharia principles provide a strong foundation for economic justice and sustainability.

Analisis Pengaruh Ekspor dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia Periode 2019-2023

In a country, economic sector growth is an increase in per capita output. When a country's economic growth increases, its capacity to meet the needs of its citizens also increases, thereby improving their overall welfare. Economic growth in Indonesia occurs from many factors, one of which is exports and imports. This study aims to analyze how the value of Indonesia's exports and imports in the 2019-2023 period affects its economic growth. This research applies secondary data in the form of time series covering the time span. The data is obtained through data statistics and previous journals. The application of the method utilized by researchers in this study is the OLS (Ordinary Least Square) method. The tests applied are partial data testing (T-test) and simultaneous data testing (F-test). The regression equation in this study is Y = 4.264 - 5.579EX1 + 9.323EX2. Exports have such an impact on Indonesia's economic growth that is fully supported by the results of the t-test. Similarly, imports also show a significant influence on economic growth at the country level. The reason why economic growth is not affected is because of the influence of other variables.

INNOVATION OF THE SME SECTOR IN POLAND AND ITALY

PRESENTATION AND PURPOSE OF THE STUDY. The SME sector is the backbone of the economies of both Poland and Italy. In Poland, the SME sector comprises more than 2.2 million enterprises, accounting for around 99.8% of all active businesses, while in Italy, the SME sector comprises around 4.4 million enterprises. Italy is one of the countries in the European Union with the most significant number of SMEs. Micro-enterprises dominate the SME structure in both countries. They generate a significant percentage of exports. In the case of Poland, this is about 30% of the total value of exports, and in the case of Italy, this sector accounts for more than 52% of the country's total exports. Innovation is critical for SMEs to survive and grow in a highly competitive environment. Supporting innovation in the SME sector is essential, especially given the natural barriers these businesses face. This article compares approaches to innovation in SMEs in Poland and Italy. RESEARCH METHODS. The paper uses a literature analysis method. The paper reviews the literature on the topic and innovativeness of the SME sector in Poland and Italy. The selection of literature made it possible to compare the importance and innovativeness of this sector in both countries. THE RESULTS. The literature analysis has shown that SMEs are the backbone of the economy in Poland and Italy, but their role in innovation varies. In both countries, access to finance is one of the biggest obstacles to SME innovation activities. In both countries, there is a problem of a mismatch between the qualifications of employees and market needs, which limits the ability of SMEs to innovate. CONCLUSIONS. Poland and Italy should adopt new systemic solutions to support their SME sectors better. They should improve the conditions for innovation development in this sector. KEYWORDS: innovation; SME sector; importance of SMEs; SME in Poland; SME in Italy.

Support vector machine analysis to predict the value of tin exports as an effort to prevent environmental damage in the Bangka Belitung islands province

Abstract The Bangka Belitung Islands Province is one of the largest tin producers in Indonesia, so tin mining and environmental damage continue to be hot topics among the people of Bangka Belitung. Therefore, research is needed to predict the value of tin exports as part of efforts to prevent environmental damage. The analysis method used in this research is a Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM method is included in the supervised learning category with a machine learning approach in creating algorithms to predict results accurately. The data used is data on the tin export value of the Bangka Belitung Islands Province for the period January 2017 to December 2023. Based on the results of the data analysis carried out, it was found that the SVM method that is suitable for predicting export value is the Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel. Based on this method, the highest value obtained in the Bangka Belitung tin export data was $219,028,197 in May 2025 and the lowest was $2,752,377 in June 2026. It can be concluded that the predicted results of the Bangka Belitung tin export data fluctuated slightly downward in line with the decline in the commodity value of tin in this province. The hope is that the decrease in tin export predictions must also be anticipated by local government policies in dealing with the availability and type of damage caused by this non-renewable natural resource commodity.

Exploring Rice Export Competitiveness in India: A Comparative Analysis of Rice Products

The study examined the export performance and competitiveness of Indian rice using compound annual growth rate and nominal protection coefficient (NPC) and revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA). From 2011 to 2021, there was a significant increase in the export quantity, value, and unit price of basmati and non-basmati rice. NPC results revealed that rice in the husk (paddy or rough), husked (brown) rice, and broken rice were competitive in export. Further, the average NPC for the semi-milled rice category was 1.05, reflecting a lack of competitiveness. RSCA revealed that India has a comparative advantage in rice, including husk (paddy or rough), semi-milled, and broken rice. However, Pakistan has a strong comparative advantage in semi-milled rice (including basmati). Therefore, India must improve its competitiveness with semi-milled rice. India should also take measures to expand its basmati rice export to higher potential markets like Europe and non-basmati rice export to new African countries.