China Exports Research Articles

Has processing trade made China's exports cleaner? A regional level analysis

This paper investigates the role of processing trade on China’s regional CO2 emission intensity of exports (EIE). We investigate the temporal changes in regional EIEs and their determinants from 2002 to 2012 by using special multi-regional input-output tables that distinguish the production of processing exports from other production at the regional level. By using structural decomposition analysis, we attribute the regional EIE changes into effects of very detailed components, which show the roles of different production types and factors in EIE changes. We find that EIE increased from 2002 to 2007 but decreased from 2007 to 2012. In this regard, processing exports play a decisive role in the first period, making China's exports dirtier, but help exports be cleaner after the crisis. By factor, the input structure reflected by the inter-industry production linkage is the main reason for the different performances of EIEs in the two periods. The interregional trade in intermediate inputs has increased most inland regions' EIEs while decreasing coastal regions' EIEs. • The EIE for most regions firstly significantly increased from 2002 to 2007, and then decreased from 2007 to 2012. • Processing exports play a key role in EIE changes. Their changes increased EIE first and then decreased it. • The effect of input structure is dominant in the total effect of processing exports, with other factors played limited roles. • The different change in the commodity structure of intermediate inputs is the main reason for different performances of EIE before and after the crisis. • The increasing interregional trade has exacerbated the regional inequality in terms of environmental cost from exports.

Absorptive capacity and quality upgrading effect of OFDI: Evidence from China

AbstractDoes outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from developing countries affect firms' competitiveness in international markets through quality upgrading of export? Using highly disaggregated Chinese product level data and the firm level information on overseas investment from 2000 to 2006, we attempt to provide an answer to this question. We employ the propensity score matching approach and difference‐in‐differences specification to deal with the sample selection bias and the potentially endogenous problem in inferring the causal effect of OFDI on quality upgrading. The results reveal that investment abroad could significantly push China export up on quality ladders. The firms with OFDI have higher quality products when compared with the firms remaining invest in their home country at product‐export destination level. This quality upgrading effect is more pronounced where firms export to high‐income countries. Furthermore, we show that the learning mechanism works and the absorptive ability of firms could reinforce the quality upgrading effect of OFDI. The learning mechanism also works for the firms with difference OFDI strategies.

Naira - Yuan Diplomacy: A Pathway for Unlocking Nigeria’s Manufacturing Sub-Sector Potentials

The fountain head for weighing one unit of a domestic currency in-terms of another within an international framework is rooted in the famous Gold Standard proposed by the Bretton Woods Institutions (BWIs). This brand of thought had since been practiced and experienced in numerous trade ties that Nigeria had had with China. Like other bilateral agreements, it sets to re-define and deepen the two countries’ economic space. Thus, this paper shed lights on Naira - Yuan Diplomacy as a Pathway for Unlocking Nigeria’s Manufacturing Sub-Sector Potentials.The manufacturing industries are engines of economic prosperity. Facilitation of job creation space and poverty reducing strategies are core values in manufacturing too. This paper conclusively presume that the exchange rate pass-through mechanism can transmit price increase and macroeconomic instability from China and supply shocks to the Nigerian economy (especially from manufactured products) when adequate provisions are not domestically taken. Furthermore, the Naira-Yuan diplomacy will increase imports from China thereby increase her foreign income since Nigeria will be spending more on Chinese manufactured products, hence, increase the national income of China. The policy implication of this finding is that the net exports of China will rise faster and add to her expansion of domestic income instead of Nigeria. The paper therefore calls upon Nigeria to be proactive in ensuring a stable trade and exchange rate policies to deepen technical innovation for local manufacturing tools to boost output rather than depending more on China.
 
 Received: 18 August 2020 / Accepted: 9 October 2020 / Published: 17 January 2021

Research on the influence of US QE policy on Sino-US trade

This article selects the major international commodity price index, the RMB against the dollar, foreign direct investment in China, the broad money supply of US, China's exports to the US and China’s imports from the US of monthly data from January 2020 to June 2021, using multiple linear regression model to study how the quantitative easing monetary policy of US impact on Sino-US trade during the outbreak of the COVID-19. The empirical results show that international commodity price index has a negative correlation with China's exports to the US and imports from US, the RMB against the dollar has a negative impact to China’s imports from US, the broad money supply of US has a significant positive impact on both China’s export to US and import from US and FDI has a positive impact to China’s imports from US to some extent.

A study on China’s Agricultural Products Exports to Kazakhstan Based on CMS Model

This article applies the modified CMS model and selects the data about exports of China’s agricultural products to Kazakhstan from 1998 to 2019 according to SITC (Rev.3) so as to make an empirical analysis of the factors influencing the growth of China’s agricultural products exports to Kazakhstan based on both the overall and classification perspectives. The results show that the structural change effects promoted the growth of China’s agricultural products exports to Kazakhstan before the “Belt and Road” initiative was proposed, followed by the inhibiting effect. The competitiveness effect is inhibitory, and then it is promoting. The interaction effects before and after the “Belt and Road” initiative was proposed are both inhibitory.

Industrial characteristics and countermeasures of India's anti-dumping against China

China is India's largest trading partner country, but also India's anti-dumping investigation has the largest number of countries. A thorough study of the industrial characteristics and countermeasures of India's anti-dumping against China is of great significance for maintaining a good trade relationship between China and India and even developing countries. This paper selects the relevant data of India's anti-dumping measures against China from 1995 to the present to analyze the characteristics of India's anti-dumping measures against China and explain its causes by using two-factor analysis of variance. Through empirical research, this paper finds that the number of Indian anti-dumping cases against China has significant industry dependence, especially in high value-added industries such as chemical industry, medicine, light industry and labor-intensive industries. In this regard, China should get rid of the "non-market economy" label as soon as possible, try to establish a closer China-India economic and trade partnership under the framework of BRICS cooperation, strengthen bilateral exchanges, and promote the further upgrading of China's export product structure.

Evaluation on the Development of Sino-US Service Trade under Sino-US Trade Friction

With the further development of economic globalization, service trade has gradually become the important reflection of economic strength and international competitiveness of a country. However, the Sino-US trade friction has greatly restricted the development of China's service trade, which is not conducive to improving China's international competitiveness. Based on the statistical data from 1999 to 2017, this paper analyzes the development status of some related fields of service trade in China in the new economic situation, including production, tourism, intellectual property, and financial and insurance services. The results indicate that China's export of service trade mainly focuses on traditional labor-intensive industries, while knowledge and technology intensive industries, including insurance services, financial services and patent services, are still in their infancy. Therefore, we should optimize its industrial structure to achieve high-quality development of China's service trade.

A Study on the Impact of Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy of the United States on China's Economy

This paper studies the impact of US quantitative easing monetary policy on China's economy. In order to cope with the financial crisis in 2008 and walk out of the economic downturn, the United States adopted quantitative easing monetary policy. However, due to the special status of the US dollar as an international currency, although this unconventional monetary policy has injected sufficient liquidity into the world economy, it also has significant negative spillover effects on other countries. On the basis of relevant theories, this paper empirically analyzes the actual impact of the policy on emerging economies represented by China through VAR model. The results show that the policy has a great impact on China's export trade, domestic prices, capital market and monetary policy, among which the impact on China's domestic price level is the largest. But the overall effects are complex, that there is no consistent direction of change, and the volatility is high. Based on the findings, the China government should put more emphasis on the foreign risks when making monetary policies.

On the Influence of the Change of Export Tax Rebate Policy on China's Export Trade

Since 1985, China began to implement the export tax rebate policy, mainly through adjusting the export tax rebate rate of goods to affect its profit rate, thus affecting the export scale of goods, and gradually regard the export tax rebate policy as one of the important measures of macroeconomic adjustment of economic operation, and make adjustments according to the actual situation of economic operation. Firstly, this paper reviews the history of some major adjustments of the export tax rebate policy, collects relevant data, reflects the great changes of China's total export and its commodity structure, makes in-depth analysis and summary of these changes, and finally puts forward relevant suggestions on the problems existing in the export tax rebate system.

Determination of product diversity in china s export sectors in 2001-2017 through clustering analysis

Purpose- It is to evaluate the export-oriented general economic structure of China, which alone meets 20% of world exports today, and to reveal the changes and cluster differences in the export products group of China before and after its membership to the WTO. Methodology- It is to reveal and interpret the change in China's exports before and after becoming a member of the WTO by sectoral cluster analysis method. Findings- When China's total export from 1992 to 2017 and the export changes in 25 different sectors are examined, it is observed that there is a significant increase in all sectors. Conclusion- Statistically significant differences were found for each sector before and after China’s WTO membership. This shows that China's membership is meaningful. In addition, after becoming a member of the WTO, while the agricultural raw material sector was the least specialized and the lowest competitive sector in Chinese exports, the sector with the highest competitive power was its mechanical electronic devices and machinery. In other words, after the WTO membership, it is seen that China's total exports increased approximately 10 times during 2001.

Application of gravity model to explain the effects of diplomatic relations on China’s service trade

ABSTRACT Using the data of China’s service trade and diplomatic events with 45 countries, this paper examines the effects of diplomatic relations on service trade based on the gravity model. Through an empirical analysis, the results proved that good diplomatic relations can significantly promote the export of China’s service trade and that the effects of diplomatic relations on trade have a clear distinction regarding different political positions. Our results support the view that diplomatic relation does an important role in international trade.

Export trade and smog pollution: Empirical evidence from China

AbstractThis paper examines the impact of China's export trade on smog pollution. Based on provincial panel data from 2006 to 2016 in China, we use spatial econometric methods to empirically investigate the smog pollution effects of China's export trade from two dimensions, export scale and export structure. It has been found that smog pollution in various regions of China has obvious spatial correlation; China's export trade has a significant positive impact on smog pollution, whether in terms of export scale or export structure. After establishing different forms of spatial weight matrices and considering alternative indicators of smog pollution, the results of this paper are still robust.

Analysis and Countermeasures of the Influence of COVID-19 on the Commodity Category of Port Export in China: Taking Shanghai Port as an Example

Su, B.; Guan, C.; An, Q., and Wang, Q., 2020. Analysis and countermeasures of the influence of COVID-19 on the commodity category of port export in China: Taking Shanghai Port as an example. In: Liu, X. and Zhao, L. (eds.), Today's Modern Coastal Society: Technical and Sociological Aspects of Coastal Research. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 111, pp. 298–301. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Since the end of 2019, the novel coronavirus has spread rapidly, which has affected the economy, social interaction, and foreign trade, both in China and around the world. Import and export trade has become an organic part of China's national economy. Import and export trade accounts for nearly 35% of the national economy, which is a major part of China's economic growth. This article takes Shanghai Port as an example, collecting and analyzing the exporters of Shanghai Port in China from January to May 2020. Compared with the relevant data of the same period in 2019, this article discusses the major commodity categories that are affected by the epidemic situation in the export trade volume of Shanghai Port, giving countermeasures according to the influence situation in order to stabilize the quantity of this category in the future and reduce the risk of lower port trade volume of the export commodity categories affected by public health emergencies in China's port trade. At the same time, some suggestions and countermeasures are given to the ecological environment problems affecting the sustainable development of ports.

Trade destruction and deflection effects of US‐China trade frictions on China’s tariff‐targeted products

AbstractThis paper probes into the impacts of US‐China trade rows on China's exports of products covered under the applicable tariff lines. We scrutinise the monthly trade data of China with the US and third‐party markets from January 2017 to June 2019, employing the DID model. It is found firstly that the US levy of tariffs on $50 billion and $200 billion worth of Chinese products have produced a significant and adverse trade destruction effect on China's exports to the US. Meanwhile, the tariffs levied on these products have played a significant and positive role in deflecting China's export to third‐party markets. Second the US additional tariffs on $50 billion of China's products have produced greater trade destruction and deflection effects on China's export of tariff‐targeted products to the US, whereas only the US additional tariffs on $200 billion of China's products have caused a net trade destruction effect. Third, it is confirmed that the trade destruction effects of US additional tariffs on Chinese products exported to the US are mainly concentrated on high tech‐intensive manufactures and primary goods, while the trade deflection effect of China's export to third‐party markets is concentrated on differentiated products. The findings render crucial policy implications.

Consequences of COVID-19 on Imports and Exports of China with Forecasted Error and Future Trends

Purpose- The primary motivation behind this paper is to break down results of Coronavirus on imports and fares of China with anticipated mistake and future patterns. Design/methodology/approach - The paper depends on an Auto Backward Coordinated Moving Normal model with explicit suggestion of Box and Jenkins approach each year complete assessment of imports and fares of China as of the year 1950-2016 through supportive quantifiable programming R. It is found that ARIMA (0, 2, 2) and ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model appear to be to be sensible to measure full scale yearly imports and fares of China independently. Findings - After the control of COVID plague Chinese imports and fares will extend a tiny bit at a time and after the skirmish of three years get the figure (153609.6) in 2022, it will get the figure (153096.8) of 2019. After 2022, the advancement movement of Chinese imports and fares will be extended in a reliably close about a comparative rate before the attack of novel COVID. Research limitations/implications - The foremost restriction of the research work it is merely support on secondary data. Practical implications - The scientist can utilize these models for determining yearly imports and fares of China. Any way it ought to be refreshed opportunity to time with a consolidation of current information. It is most significant that the scientist ought to consistently follow the guideline of stinginess and attempt to fit straightforward model rather than model with enormous boundaries. Originality/value - The uniqueness of this article is that it features the select models for gauging import and fare of China. It was discovered that AIC based model determination methods provided ARIMA models with request (0, 2, 2) and request (0, 2, 1) for imports and fares of China separately were proper and helps in advancing money related incorporation with brings about higher monetary development and unfamiliar financial specialists.

Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China—at Home and Abroad

The increasing range and quality of China's exports is a major development internationally with potentially far‐reaching effects. In this paper, on top of the direct labour market effects of imports from China studied in previous research, we also measure the indirect effects stemming from increased export competition in third markets. Our findings, based on matched employer–employee data of Portugal covering the period 1991–2008, indicate that workers’ earnings and employment are significantly negatively affected by China's competition, but only through the indirect ‘market‐stealing’ channel. In contrast to earlier evidence, the direct effects of Chinese imports are mostly non‐significant. The results are robust to a number of checks and also highlight particular groups more affected by indirect competition, including women, older and less educated workers, and workers in larger, older and domestic firms.

Trade liberalisation and Chinese firm’s exports: Sourcing from Indonesia

AbstractWe investigate how trade liberalisation affects the performance of Chinese manufacturing firms via sourcing from the South. Taking imports from Indonesia, the largest country in South‐east Asia—China's current trading partner as an example, we find that Chinese firms with higher import shares from Indonesia perform better in productivity, exports and sales, and they are more likely to engage in processing exports. Moreover, the impacts of foreign trade liberalisation on China's export scopes are more pronounced for firms with larger import shares from Indonesia. Such findings are robust to different empirical specifications.

Reducing disparities between carbon emissions and economic benefits in Guangdong’s exports: A supply chain perspective

Structurally adjusting inputs and reducing supply chain emissions in the production of exports are two effective ways to reduce disparities between export-related carbon emissions (ECE) and export-related value-added (EVA). Thus, it is important to determine the sources of disparities induced by different intermediate inputs and to identify which supply chains are crucial for reducing emissions. We invoke subsystem analysis to examine the sources of disparities between ECE and EVA caused by intermediate inputs used to produce exports in China’s Guangdong Province during 2002–2012. We apply multi-temporal structural path analysis to extract crucial ECE paths and corresponding EVAs and investigate variations in priorities to reduce path emissions. The results indicate, first, that both inter- and intra-sector dimensions show disparities in ECE–EVA derived from sectoral spillovers. Second, disparities in spillover components are caused by two factors: differing intensities between direct carbon emissions and the direct coefficient for value-added and the expansion of economic multipliers. Third, fragmentation in production increases the difficulty of mitigating supply chain emissions and enhances disparities in ECE–EVA among high-production tiers (Tier 3→∞). Fourth, an amplification effect influences path disparities in ECE–EVA and determines priorities for reducing path emissions except in cases of emission-shifting.

Real economic benefits and environmental costs accounting of China-US trade

A critical reason for China-United States trade friction is that China has a huge trade balance, especially the trade balance of goods. However, this huge trade balance is based on the results of official statistics and does not reflect the real economic benefits and environmental costs embodied in China-US trade, where both refer to trade in value-added and embodied CO2 emission costs, respectively. This paper calculates the trade in value-added and carbon emission transfer between China and the United States based on the World Input-Output Database. Results demonstrate that: (1) Gross trade statistics seriously overestimate China's benefits in China-US trade. The China-US trade surplus, based on gross trade statistics, is 20% higher than when based on trade in value-added accounting. (2) In China-US bilateral trade, China mainly adopts the trade model of importing intermediate products and exporting final products，whereas the United States mainly adopts the trade model of importing final products and exporting intermediate products. China's exports to the United States contain many of value-added in Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. (3) From 2000 through 2014, China maintained a large surplus of CO2 emissions exports to the United States, and China paid a huge environmental cost in its trade with the United States. (4) In China-US trade, China's environmental costs per unit value-added is 3.02 times that of the United States.

Impact of Environmental Costs on Export Trade

With the rapid growth of trade, the problem of environmental protection has become increasingly prominent. In the export trade, environmental costs are highly valued and become one of the enterprises important considerations for production and export in China. This paper analyzes the impact of environmental cost internalization and environmental regulation on export trade based on the related literature on environmental cost and export trade; using China’s one-time energy consumption data from 1997 to 2017 and 2001-2015 China’s major industrial pollution discharge data. It simply calculated the environmental costs based on energy consumption. The research results show that the impact of environmental costs on export trade is mainly reflected in the impact on trade advantages and export product structure. Whether it is internalization of environmental costs or reasonable environmental regulation, it has a positive effect on the protection of pollutants from export enterprises and the protection of environmental resources within a certain scope, but excessive environmental costs or environmental regulations will increase the production cost of export products, which is ultimately not conducive to the growth of export trade. The government needs to further strengthen the coordinated development of environment and export trade to build an environment-friendly trade power.