Short-term Export Research Articles

A Study on the Legal Issues of Short-term Export Credit Insurance (Small and Medium Enterprise Plus Program)

A Study on the Legal Issues of Short-term Export Credit Insurance (Small and Medium Enterprise Plus Program)

Long-Term and Short-Term Export Contracts for Natural Gas Supply

Natural gas is exported in accordance with the terms and conditions of foreign trade contracts between the seller and the buyer. Research into the execution procedure, terms and conditions of such contracts has both theoretical and practical value. The importance of a foreign trade contract for relations between the parties cannot be overemphasized as its scope determines and legally binds the parties for the achievement of their respective goals. When entering into foreign trade contracts, the parties should consider the impact of natural gas extraction, processing, transportation, storage processes on terms of foreign trade transactions with natural gas. These terms are especially important for long-term natural gas export contracts which are considered to be the traditional form of natural gas trading. However, more recently, forms of foreign trade contracts for natural gas export used to interact with foreign buyers have become more diversified. Natural gas trading under short-term contracts using electronic trading platforms is becoming increasingly important. In this article, the author examines the key peculiarities of such contracts, defines basic advantages and disadvantages of using various contract forms for natural gas export.

The Effect of Export Insurance and Guarantees on Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis for Korea

There is a series of empirical papers (Kim and Lee 2004; Egger and Url, 2006; Moser, Nestmann, and Wedow, 2008; Baltensperger and Herger, 2009; Auboin and Engemann, 2014; Van der Veer. 2015) which show that trade finance is positively associated with export. Despite its positive impact on export, trade finance has been a contentious issue in international organizations such as the WTO and OECD in terms of implementing related policy measures. This is based on the argument that trade finance hurts fair international trade because it ultimately plays a role just like a subsidy. Regarding this contentious issue, in this paper we examine whether there is evidence supporting that trade finance is associated with an increase in export. We also investigate the channel through which the effect of the trade finance on export is working. To this end, we focus on a specific part of trade finance: short-term export insurance and export credit guarantee. This is because noble and ample data on these types of trade insurance are available. This confidential data is provided by the Korea Insurance Trade Corporation (henceforth KSURE) exclusively. We conduct a panel regression using Korean sector-level export data covering from 2010Q1 to 2017Q4. This dataset enables us to control for destination country-, sector-, and time-fixed effects. Our empirical results show that the short-term export insurance and export credit guarantee have a positive impact on exports, and the main channel behind this is related to mitigating financial constraints of exporting firms. The trade finance effectively eliminates the risk of importers' payment, which helps export firms reduce the financial frictions. This ultimately leads to an increase in export. Since the main mechanism in which the trade insurance affects export is related to alleviating financial frictions, it becomes more definite that the way how trade insurance contributes to an increase in export is somewhat different from that of a subsidy. When we consider the fact that financial friction is an important factor for restraining international trade, which can partly explain the great collapse in international trade during the global financial crisis, the trade insurance policies would rather be a useful policy measure which can dampen negative impact on export during recession.

수출보험사기 방지를 위한 우리나라 수출신용보증제도 개선방안 - O/A 매입방식을 중심으로

This study explores how to prevent the fraudulent export financing and its subsequent export insurance fraud in relation to O/A negotiation. Under the traditional letter of credit(L/C) transactions, the banks, as a negotiation bank, can extend trade financing to the exporters through negotiation of draft and/or shipping documents. Under the O/A transaction scheme, however, bank cannot ascertain existence of trade performance and it is much riskier to extend an advance financing to the exporters before the buyer sends confirmation of debt. In O/A negotiation. some exporters tried to fraud banks by falsifying the shipping documents and the size and gravity of this fraudulent export financing were huge. Therefore, this study examines the banking process in O/A-based trade financing, documents examination process, the negotiation of instruments, treatment of trade financing in export credit guarantee, most importantly, explores what could be the criteria for appropriate treatment of account receivable to insure the safe transfer of account receivable. To maximize the benefit for optimum trade financing, the Bank of Korea established several Trade Finance Rules (refers to “BOK Rules”) requiring that commercial banks should maintain optimal credit limits(so called, ‘the principle of optimal loan’) to extend the trade finance. The K-sure post-shipment credit guarantee programs and short-term export insurance program( E FF)can also facilitate ‘the principle of optimal loan’ principle.

Mô hình dự báo giá tôm sú xuất khẩu Việt Nam

Forecasting export prices is very important for exporters and policymakers to make strategic business decisions. The objective of the study was to apply the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the short-term export price of tiger shrimp using the monthly time series data of free on board (FOB) price at size 30-40 pieces/kg in the period from January 2011 to December 2016. The results confirmed that the SARIMA (2,1,1)(0,1,11)12 model was the most suitable for explaining the fluctuation of black tiger shrimp prices. The forecasting model was proved to be very reliable; the predicted shrimp prices in January 2017 were roughly equal to the real ones with the 95% confidence interval.

A Study on Policies to Ensure Reasonable Short-term Export Insurance Operations after the Opening of the Market to Private Insurers

A Study on Policies to Ensure Reasonable Short-term Export Insurance Operations after the Opening of the Market to Private Insurers

Empirical effects of short-term export bans: The case of African maize

Temporary export restrictions have been widely used in recent years in an attempt to stabilize domestic prices of staple grains. I use monthly, market-level price data to investigate the empirical effects of 13 short-term export bans on maize implemented by 5 countries in East and Southern Africa. I find no statistically significant effect of export bans on the price gaps between pairs of affected cross-border markets. My results for price gaps match those from a model simulation in which export bans are not implemented. However, prices and price volatility in the implementing country are significantly higher during export ban periods in the data than in the model simulation with no bans. Export bans in the region are imperfectly enforced, divert trade into the informal sector, and appear to destabilize domestic markets rather than stabilizing them.

OECD Export Credit Agencies: Supplementing Short-Term Export Credit Insurance during the 2008 Financial Crisis

ABSTRACTThe 2008 financial crisis impacted international trade in part due to decreases in trade finance and export credit insurance. This article shows that Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member states used their public Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) to supplement the lack of private short-term export credit insurance as a means to increase trade. All OECD states, except Greece and Estonia, either increased the capacity of their ECAs to provide short-term export credit insurance, or they developed new products for this purpose. More generally, states that changed their short-term export credit insurance programs had major trading partners with defaults.

단기수출보험 상품포트폴리오의 리스크관리

단기수출보험 상품포트폴리오의 리스크관리

Study on the survival of China agri-food export trade relationships

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study whether, of China's food and agriculture (agri-food) export, the trade relationships along the extensive margin can transform into short-term ones, and further convert into long-term ones along the intensive margin with survival and maintenance, especially, under what kind of conditions these transformation realize successfully, and what the factors are and how they impact on the length of the trade relationships duration. Design/methodology/approach – The paper comprises three stages: decomposing China's agricultural export data (1999-2008) into highly disaggregated three distinct parts; with the Kaplan-Meier (KM) nonparametric estimation, discovering the practical source of stable and long-term export growth, and the threshold at which the short-run trade relationships deriving from newly established ones convert into long-run ones successfully; by semi parametric estimation through Cox proportional hazard model, preliminarily examining the possible impact of different factors on the trade relationship's hazard rate and duration. Findings – The paper reveals that China agri-food trade pattern at the product level is surprisingly dynamic with newly established trade relations being more likely to fail. While the frequent volatilities of short-term relations at the extensive margin could be used to evaluate the source of short-term export growth especially and effectively, the pattern of negative dependence together with the threshold effect of duration indicates, only when these short-term relations live longer than four years will they substantially contribute to a stable and prolonged export growth. Simultaneously, trade duration significantly correlates to importing country's development status, region it belongs to, product processing degree, export experience and geographical space between trading partners. Research limitations/implications – To avoid the likelihood of misleading when estimating quantitatively the source of long-term export growth, researchers should be cautious in accurately evaluating the impacts of all possible factors on the two trade margins' performances, which is beyond the scope of this paper though, and a matter of ongoing work on the research agenda. Practical implications – The study presents a set of important policy implications. Now that turnovers along the extensive margin have little impact on long-term China agri-food export growth, it turns out that improving export survival would result in significantly higher and stable export growth. Originality/value – By distinguishing the survival of trade relationship channels from their deepening, the discoveries in the paper are crucial to understand the different role the intensive and extensive margins play in China agri-food export growth. The diversified hazard rates of export relations in different duration intervals suggest that the constant hazard rate assumption in Melitz and Bernard et al. is in some sense not appropriate.

일반화 선형모형을 이용한 수출보험의 지급비율 추정

Export credit insurance is a policy tool for export growth. In the era of free trade under the governance of WTO, export credit insurance is still allowed as one of the few instruments to increase exports. This paper, using data on short-term export insurance contracts issued to foreign subsidiaries of Korean companies, calculates the expected loss per exposure by combining the effect of risk factors (credit rate of foreign importers, size of mother company, and payment period) on loss frequency and loss severity in different levels. We, applying generalized linear models (GLM), first fit loss frequency and loss severity to negative binomial and lognormal distribution, respectively, and then estimate the loss frequency rate per contract and the ratio of loss severity to coverage amount. Finally, we calculate the expected loss per exposure for each level of risk factors by combining these two rates. Based on the result of statistical analysis, we present the implication for the current premium rate of export insurance.

Trade policy responses to food price crisis and implications for existing domestic support measures: the case of China in 2008

AbstractMany national governments around the world applied export restrictions in order to achieve domestic market stabilization during the 2007/8 world food price crisis. However, current literature says little about how these export restrictions interact with existing domestic support measures in jointly determining domestic market outcomes. This paper analyzes this interaction by providing a quantitative assessment on how increased spending on agricultural domestic support in China offset the negative effects on grain production caused by the country's export restrictions and how these two types of measures jointly moderated rises of domestic grain prices. In particular, domestic and trade measures on key agricultural inputs such as fertilizers are shown to contribute significantly to expand grain outputs and reduce domestic market prices. While the short-term goal in stabilizing domestic grain prices was achieved through these measures, large fiscal and efficiency costs were incurred, especially considering how the short-term export restrictions seemingly necessitated the extra spending on input-based domestic subsidies. We also demonstrate that the costs to China and the rest of the world of these complicated policy interventions may be partially avoidable with a simpler and less distorting instrument.

The New Commission's Communication on the Application of State Aid Rules to Short-term Export Credit Insurance

The new Communication on the application of State aid rules to short-term export credit insurance, which will apply for five years from 1 January 2013, provides a welcome degree of transparency and a strengthened level playing field in this sensitive area.

Product Quality Preference, Machinery Import and Import-induced Export

This paper constructs a monopolistic competition trade model to describe the mechanism of import-induced export which is defined as expansion of consumer product export size caused by import of massive advanced machinery. This paper introduces the product quality preference into the monopolistic competition trade model, and finds with the improvement of product quality, foreign demand for domestic manufactured consumer product will rise. Import of eligible machinery can raise the short-term profit and export volume of domestic consumer product manufacturers, and also raise total export volume of domestic consumer product industry.JEL Classification: F14, D20, O50

Determinants of Short-Term Export Performance in Pakistan

This research investigates the interdependency between independent variables (Increase of pricing strategy adaptation, Increase of export intensity, Firm's commitment to exporting, Export market development, Export market competition, Past Pricing Strategy Adaptation, Past Export Performance Satisfaction, Past Export Intensity, Export market distance) and dependent variables (i.e. Expected Short-Term Export Performance improvement) of export performance. The framework is tested via a survey through questionnaire from industrial exporters of textile in Pakistan. Findings revealed that the past export performance satisfaction is positively correlated with Expected Short-Term Export Performance and it is the only important indicator that is associated significantly to short-term export performance improvement in textile sector of Pakistan.

How Much Credit for Export Credit Support Under the SCM Agreement?

This contribution examines the degree of policy space the WTO leaves its Members to support export credits for non-agricultural goods. In the light of existing case law, it illustrates that export credit support offered by export credit agencies that aims at complementing the private trade finance market would in principle be prohibited under the SCM Agreement. However, while some low-income countries can rely on a specific exception on the prohibition on export subsidies, all WTO Members can, on the basis of the Illustrative List of Export Subsidies, justify certain subsidized export credits that are in accordance with the interest rate provisions of the OECD Arrangement. But, as the case law and the OECD Arrangement currently stand, subsidized export credit guarantees and insurance as well as subsidized short-term export credits cannot rely on this safe haven. Hence, the article shows that export credit agencies, except for those of some low-income countries, cannot play a complementary role to the private market in offering such support. Moreover, this contribution demonstrates that export credit support in accordance with the safe haven might still be countervailable and actionable. Finally, it is argued that an exception which can be modified by a subgroup of WTO Members, like the safe haven, can no longer be accepted.

Dairy Exports from India to Asian Countries

The Asian countries are the major destinations for the Indian dairy exports. The buoyancy in import demand of dairy products in Asian countries due to growing size of their markets resulting from population growth and changing food preferences, offers opportunities for Indian dairy industry to increase their exports. This paper examines export trends of India's dairy products in Asian markets, analyzes the import demand and relative price elasticity of the Indian dairy exports and presents short-term export forecast in select Asian destinations. The analysis is based on HS 4- and 8-digit level data of the India's export to 40 Asian countries during 1991-2004. The results indicate that although presently India is a minor player in Asian markets and exports are moderately to highly instable in most of the destinations, the potential exports can increase substantially.

Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

This paper reviews a broad set of indicators of competitiveness in the Macedonian economy and estimates the equilibrium real effective exchange rate (REER) using different methodologies. Although the REER is broadly in equilibrium at present, structural factors are found to hamper competitiveness. While a more competitive exchange rate might improve short-term export performance, sustained improvements require enhanced productivity and resource reallocation to more dynamic sectors, which depends on reforms to improve the business environment.

The STEP Scale: A Measure of Short-Term Export Performance Improvement

This article is a direct response to a recent observation in the literature that managers appear to be short-term oriented in their assessment of the performance of an export venture ( Madsen 1998 ). On the basis of a cross-national survey of exporting firms, the authors present a three-dimensional scale for assessing managerial judgment of short-term export performance (i.e., the STEP scale). The three dimensions are (1) satisfaction with short-term performance improvement, (2) short-term exporting intensity improvement, and (3) expected short-term performance improvement. The scale presents evidence of reliability as well as convergent, discriminant, and nomological validity, and it reveals factorial similarity and factorial equivalence across both samples. The authors outline managerial and public policy implications that stem from the scale and identify avenues for further export marketing research.

Determinants of Expected Short-term Export Performance Improvement: An Empirical Study of Industrial Exporters

In this research, key determinants of expected short-term export performance improvement are identified. We develop a conceptual framework that incorporates past, current and expected performance, internal and external forces of the firm, and pricing strategy adaptation to the foreign market. The framework is tested via a field survey of industrial exporters. Surprisingly, findings reveal that the effect of firm's commitment to exporting on expected short-term export performance improvement is negative. More importantly, findings indicate that past export intensity has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between export intensity increase and expected short-term export performance improvement. Similarly, the relationship between external market forces and expected short-term export performance improvement is moderated by the level of past export satisfaction. Additionnaly, findings suggest that for a better understanding of the effects of pricing strategy change on export performance, particular attention should be given to the moderating effects of previous experience with past pricing strategies. These and other surprising results have important implications for both public policy and management decision-making, and suggest several potentially fruitful streams for global marketing research of industrial products.