Abstract
Forecasting export prices is very important for exporters and policymakers to make strategic business decisions. The objective of the study was to apply the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the short-term export price of tiger shrimp using the monthly time series data of free on board (FOB) price at size 30-40 pieces/kg in the period from January 2011 to December 2016. The results confirmed that the SARIMA (2,1,1)(0,1,11)12 model was the most suitable for explaining the fluctuation of black tiger shrimp prices. The forecasting model was proved to be very reliable; the predicted shrimp prices in January 2017 were roughly equal to the real ones with the 95% confidence interval.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
