Export Quantity Research Articles

Analysis of Wheat Export Performance in India

Wheat is a plant which is valued highly for its kernel as an edible part and an important source of carbohydrates. India ranks second position in wheat production in the world with a contribution of roughly 13.53 per cent to global wheat output (Naga Latha et. al., 2022). The study analyses the export performance of wheat and examines the trends in the growth performance of wheat in terms of area, production and productivity, export quantity and export value during 1973-2022 which is a period of 50 years. The analysis reveals that the highest compound growth rate in terms of area was 1.16 per cent, production was 4.49 per cent and productivity was 3.29 per cent respectively. The results of the study on the compound growth rates during the study periods have shown positive and increasing value which indicates high potential for the export of wheat from India. In the analysis of instability, there exists a high positive correlation between the export quantity and value of export in the overall period. Wheat area, production and productivity exhibit higher variability and instability in the overall period. Period II shows lower variability and instability, indicating increased stability. Period I exhibits moderate variability and instability. The overall period has the highest instability, suggesting unpredictable production. Instability indices show high instability at 126.97 per cent in Period I and 138.18 per cent overall, while Period II exhibits moderate instability at 101.94 per cent. Market volatility, trade policies, economic fluctuations, weather patterns and production variability contribute to these fluctuations. As of trend analysis, there is a positive and significant increase. The NPC value of wheat during the overall period was 0.051, it indicates that the commodity is not protected. NPC<1 indicates that the commodity is exportable and possesses export competitiveness and hence the hypothesis i.e. Indian wheat has better competitiveness in the International market.

Indian marine products exports: Growth, instability and geographical diversification

The export of marine products is a significant source of foreign exchange and plays a crucial role in the Indian economy by generating income and employment opportunities. The marine sector contributed 25% (4.13 million t) to the overall fish production in India during the fiscal year 2022-23. The primary objective of this study is to analyse the growth rate, instability, and geographical diversification of marine product exports in terms of both quantity and value. Secondary data related to the major export destinations (Japan, USA, European Union, China, South-East Asia, Middle East and others) and item-wise export (shrimp, finfish, cuttlefish, squid, dried, live, chilled and others) of marine products from India during the period 2000-01 to 2019-20 were collected from the Marine Product Export Development Authority (MPEDA). The growth rate, instability and geographical diversification of exports were estimated using the semi-log regression model, instability index (Ray’s method) and Simpson’s diversity index, respectively. The findings reveal that the overall growth rate of marine product exports over the last two decades was 7.13%. Dry fish exhibited the highest growth rate (15.34%) among all products, and South-East Asia showed the highest growth rate (16.05%) among destinations. However, a significant decline in growth rates of export quantity and value was observed between the two decades for all items, except for frozen shrimp, accompanied by an increase in export instability. The Simpson’s diversity index indicated a significant diversification of 70%, reflecting wide variety of marine products exported as well as the broad range of destination countries. Keywords: Ray’s instability index, Seafood exports, Simpson diversity index, Growth rate

GROWTH TRENDS AND INSTABILITY IN EXPORT OF AGRICULTURAL CROPS FROM INDIA: AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

India is the largest producer and exporter of cereal products in the world. The present paper analyse the growth trends and instability in export of agricultural crops from India with the objectives to examine growth trends and instability in export of agricultural commodities from India and to identify the major destination of India for exporting of agricultural commodities from India. To fulfill the objectives secondary data from 2010-11 to 2023-24 has been utilized for analysis using the statistical tools like Compound Annual Growth Rates, Coefficient of Variation and Cuddy Della Valle’s Instability Index. The study revealed that during the period the export of some commodities in terms of quantity like maize and other cereals show a negative growth rate. In terms of value other cereals also showed negative growth. The export growth rates of foodgrain such as basmati rice, non-basmati rice, wheat and millets are positive in case of quantity. The quantity of export of agricultural cash crops such as coffee, sugar and groundnut has shown positive growth rate while tea, cashew and cotton have shown a negative growth rate. Other cereals have shown the highest instability index value indicating the highest instability and variability among others in both cases quantity and value term. In term of value, cotton has shown the high level of instability index value indicating the highest instability and variability among others. India’s key markets for cereals crops are Saudi Arab, Benin, Vietnam, Nepal, United Arab Emirates, Russia and Bangladesh, while cash crops are mainly exported to the United Arab Emirates, Italy, Sudan, Indonesia and Bangladesh. KEYWORDS: Agriculture, foodgrain, cash crop, export, growth, instability

Forecasting of Turkey's Hazelnut Export Amounts According to Seasons with Dendritic Neuron Model Artificial Neural Network

It is seen that artificial neural networks have begun to be used extensively in the literature in solving the time series forecasting problem. In addition to artificial neural networks, classical forecasting methods can often be used to solve this problem. It is seen that classical forecasting methods give successful results for linear time series analysis. However, there is no linear relationship in many time series. Therefore, it can be thought that deep artificial neural networks, which contain more parameters but create more flexible non-linear model structures compared to classical time series forecasting methods, may enable the production of more successful forecasting methods. In this study, the problem of forecasting hazelnut export amounts according to seasons in Turkey with a dendritic neuron model artificial neural network is discussed. In this study, a training algorithm based on the particle swarm optimization algorithm is given for training the dendritic neuron model artificial neural network. The motivation of the study is to investigate Turkey's hazelnut export amounts according to seasons, using a dendritic neuron model artificial neural network. The performance of the proposed method has been compared with artificial neural networks used in the literature.

Evaluating the Impact of ICDP on India’s Coffee Production, Yield, and Exports

The coffee industry plays a pivotal role in India's agricultural sector, contributing significantly to the country's economy and livelihoods. However, the sector has faced challenges such as fluctuating yields, inconsistent production, and varying export quantities, largely due to biotic and abiotic stress factors. In response, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry launched the Integrated Coffee Development Project (ICDP) in 2014, aiming to enhance coffee production, productivity, and quality across both traditional and non-traditional growing regions in India. This research paper evaluates the impact of ICDP on coffee production, yield, and exports in India by analysing data from 2008 to 2022. The study adopts an interrupted time series analysis methodology to assess trends in the area under cultivation, production, yield, and export quantities before and after the ICDP intervention. The study period is divided into pre- and post-intervention phases to quantify the effects of the scheme. The results indicate a mixed impact of the ICDP. Traditional coffee-growing areas showed initial increases in production and yield, followed by declines, while non-traditional areas exhibited smaller but more consistent growth. Exports also experienced a temporary decline post-intervention but later rebounded, though at a slower growth rate. The analysis underscores the complexity of agricultural interventions, suggesting that while the ICDP had positive impacts in certain areas, challenges such as climate variability and pest infestations continue to affect the sector's overall growth. In conclusion, the ICDP has contributed to stabilizing and developing India’s coffee sector, but ongoing efforts are needed to address the underlying challenges hindering sustained progress.

A Study of Suitable Forecasting Model for the Export Quantity of Fresh or Chilled Fish in Thailand

The aim of this study was to find a suitable forecasting model for the export quantity of fresh or chilled fish in Thailand using seven statistical methods including Box-Jenkins method, Holt’s exponential smoothing method, Brown’s exponential smoothing method, damped trend exponential smoothing method, simple seasonal exponential smoothing method, Winters’ additive exponential smoothing method, and Winters’ multiplicative exponential smoothing method. The average monthly export quantity from the website of the Office of Agricultural Economics was used for data analysis. The data set used to create the models was the export quantity from January 2011 to December 2020 for 120 months. The data set used to compare the accuracy was the export quantity from January to December 2021 for 12 months using the lowest mean absolute percentage error. The results indicated that the most accurate method was the damped trend exponential smoothing method.

한중 양국 중소기업해외채권 회수제도 비교 연구

According to the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation, the amount of funds that have not yet received payment for exports in 2021 is 82 million US dollars (106.6 billion Korean won), and the total amount of accounts receivable in the past five years has reached 1.3 trillion Korean won. According to the Korea Trade Association, although the issuance scale of foreign bonds is increasing, the cumulative recovery rate is as low as around 30%. The average recovery rate of overseas accounts receivable owed by Chinese export enterprises is only 20%. Combined with a 5% export bad debt rate, it basically means that 4% of the annual export amount cannot be recovered. For small and medium-sized enterprises with weak risk resistance, cash flow is crucial for their survival. In general, there are two common ways to obtain compensation for uncollected debts: by purchasing pre export credit insurance or by seeking an ECA agency for agency recovery. The public export credit agencies (ECA) K-SURE and SINOSURE of the two countries are exploring the differences and similarities in overseas bond recovery systems, while hoping to provide better bond recovery methods for small and medium-sized enterprises and help with overseas bond recovery.

Analyzing the impacts of watershed management interventions and scenarios on sediment export reduction in yezat watershed, north west Ethiopia using InVEST model

ABSTRACT This study aimed at assessing the long term impacts of watershed management interventions and scenarios on sediment export reduction in the data-scarce region of the Yezat watershed in north-west Ethiopia. The modified ecosystem services valuation model (InVEST) was employed to evaluate the amount of sediment export in the watershed. Different watershed management intervention scenarios were applied to evaluate the effectiveness of watershed management interventions on sediment export reduction. The results of the study showed that the mean annual sediment yield was 35 tons ha yr in 20000, due to the expansion of cultivated land and built-up area. Conversely, it decreased from 35 ton ha yr in 2000 -18.4 ton ha yr in 2021 due to watershed management interventions. On the contrary, moderate, severe, and very severe categories of sediment export intensity were high in 2000. But it decreased in 2021 due to watershed management interventions. The mean annual sediment export in the baseline scenario (BS) was 35 tons per year, which was reduced to 13.39 tons per year, 3.46 tons per year, and 1.17 tons per year in the reforestation scenario, soil/stone bund, and integrated scenarios, respectively. The result revealed that areas covered by high sediment severity classes were reduced.

The Impact of Export Volatility on Economic Growth in Algeria during 1992-2016: An Econometric Study

Objectives: The issue of export volatility in the economies of less developed countries (LDCs) is a significant topic of debate in economic literature. This paper aims to investigate the potential effect of export volatility on economic performance in Algeria. Methods: The study utilizes an econometric model to estimate the impact of export volatility on economic growth in Algeria for the period 1992-2016. Additionally, another regression model is used to analyze the effects of fluctuations in export prices and quantities on economic growth in Algeria. Results: The findings show that there is no significant relationship between the export instability index and real GDP. Conclusion: The study concludes that fluctuations in the prices and quantities of exports do not influence Algeria’s real GDP. Policymakers should reduce the dependency of the export sector on oil products and improve industrial performance in Algeria. Implementing price stabilization schemes and allocating more oil precautionary funds are also needed to mitigate any possible damaging effects of export volatility on Algeria’s economy in the future.

Research on Trends, Volatility and Direction of Exports Amount by Major Countries

Research on Trends, Volatility and Direction of Exports Amount by Major Countries

A Study on the Effect of Imported Wheat Prices on Türkiye’s Pasta Exports: ARDL Approach

Türkiye has possessed significant agricultural opportunities throughout its history. Although the effective utilization of these opportunities is a subject of debate today, the country still plays a significant role in the global trade of some agricultural products. When discussions about Türkiye’s exports are examined, a common complaint is the external dependency of the export industry. However, there are also debates about the diminishing agricultural advantages that have been present since the past. When these discussions are brought together, the trade of certain processed agricultural products, whose raw materials are agricultural products, also becomes a noteworthy research topic due to a similar import dependency. In this study, an analysis was conducted using time series and the ARDL model to investigate whether there is a relationship between Türkiye’s pasta export quantity, as one of the leading pasta exporter’s globally, and the prices of wheat imports from Ukraine, Russia, and Bulgaria. Also robustness checks enhanced the analyzes by employing FMOLS and DOLS methods. The research findings indicate variations in the impact of wheat prices from country to country on the quantity of pasta exported by Türkiye. Recommendations regarding the importance of wheat production in Türkiye are also provided as a result of the research.

Influence of “the Belt & Road Initiative” on regional logistics development in China based on DID model

As a booster of the national economy and a catalyst of industrial development, the logistics industry uniquely maintains stable economic operations and promotes industrial structural adjustment. The development of China’s logistics industry has broadened the international market and accelerated the exchange and cooperation of logistics industries between different countries. The “Belt & Road Initiative” will continue to provide impetus for the development of China’s logistics industry, which can guarantee the infrastructure interconnection of the logistics industry and ensure the fundamental implementation of the initiative. Based on theoretical analysis and the panel data of 30 provinces in China during 2005–2020, whether the “Belt & Road Initiative” had obvious policy effects on regional logistics development in China was analyzed. The empirical research results showed that the “Belt & Road Initiative” could accelerate the high-quality development of the logistics industry in the provinces along the route during the research period. Industrial proportion, per capita GDP, import and export amount of goods, investment in fixed assets of the whole society, and science and technology input positively affected the development of regional logistics industries. The regression coefficient of the energy structure in the logistics industry was negative but not significant. The research results have important decision-making reference values in promoting the regional advantages of modern logistics industries, promoting the convenience of logistics trade, improving the scientific and technological level of the logistics industry, and using other exogenous policy variables to boost the high-quality development of modern logistics industries under the background of the “Belt & Road Initiative”.

A gravity model analysis of trade regulations on wood products exports: Evidence from Cameroon, Ghana, and the republic of Congo

The study assesses the impact of the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade Voluntary Partnership Agreement (FLEGT VPA) and the Lacey Act Amendment (LAA) on the export quantities of wood products from Cameroon, Ghana and the Republic of Congo using the panel gravity Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) technique. The results indicate that FLEGT VPA had a negative and significant impact on industrial roundwood export quantity from all three countries. Similarly, its effects on the export of sawnwood and wood-based panels are also negative, except for Cameroon. On the other hand, the impact of LAA appears to be mixed. These results are validated by applying an alternative Driscoll-Kraay robust standard error estimation method.

Chemodiversity of dissolved organic matter exports from subtropical humid catchment driven by hydrological connectivity

The quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) exported from source areas are closely related to hydrological linkage between source areas and streams, that is hydrological connectivity. However, understanding of how hydrological connectivity regulates the export of catchment DOM components remains inadequate. In this study, high-frequency monitoring of groundwater and runoff from subtropical humid catchment was conducted for 20 months, and hydrological connectivity was quantitatively characterized by considering both surface and subsurface hydrological processes. Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was utilized to investigate the DOM molecular composition. Results showed that over half of the areas in the catchment could not persistently establish hydrological connectivity with the stream during the rainfall. The average proportion of lignin was the highest in DOM components, followed by tannin and proteins. Additionally, both modified aromaticity index and double bond equivalence reached maximums at peak discharge, reflecting terrestrial materials could increase DOM aromaticity and unsaturated degree. Partial least square-structural equation modeling revealed significantly direct effects of rainfall, antecedent conditions, and hydrological connectivity on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export. Furthermore, nonlinear relationships were observed between hydrological connectivity and DOC, tannin, and condensed aromatics. Specifically, the instantaneous DOC flux increased dramatically when the hydrological connectivity strength exceeded 0.14; tannin and condensed aromatics exhibited a rapid increase with rising connectivity strength, but remained stable at connectivity strength above 0.25. However, hydrological connectivity showed no significant correlation with unstable components (such as lipids, protein, amino sugars, and carbohydrates). These results provide new insights into hydrological controls on the quantity and quality of DOM export and contribute to developing appropriate catchment management strategies for carbon storage.

Development and Promotion Countermeasures for Export Growth of Pakistan Textile Products

Pakistan's textile industry is vital to GDP, employment, and exports. Pakistan is strategically located in the global textiles and apparel market due to its large production and export capabilities. This sector struggles with inconsistent product quality, market barriers, high global standards, and protectionist trade policies in wealthy nations. Addressing these issues is essential for industry growth and global competitiveness. This study identifies these challenges and proposes strategic solutions to improve export performance and global competitiveness to boost Pakistan's textile sector's economic stability and growth. A thorough mixed-methods strategy integrating qualitative and quantitative research methodologies was employed in the study. By conducting surveys by websites and literature reviews related to the industry, we were able to gather primary data. We also used secondary sources such as government reports, trade journals, and trade organizations to compile our data. We used quantitative analyses in our study to determine how spending on R&D, technology upgrades, and quality control affected export performance. We looked at energy consumption, production, waste management, and export amounts in various industries of Pakistan. Improving export performance and meeting international standards requires investments in quality control, technology upgrades, and research and development, according to the study. It also lists the obstacles to entering certain markets and suggests ways to overcome them, such as through government assistance, sustainable practices, and vocational education and training. If Pakistan's textile industry follows these suggestions, it will become more competitive internationally.

Export - Import performance of coal in India: Trends, challenges and measures for achieving trade balance

Coal is considered to be the one of the major and crucial natural resources in the world and in our Indian economy. Coal serves as the raw material for generation of the electricity, for the hotel industry and for the other purposes which are highly effective in our economy. Among the coal producers in the world, India is the fourth largest producer of coal and for the requirements of domestic uses India also imports the coal from different countries. In the Indian economy the amount of coal exports has resulted to the trade deficit problems. Although the Indian coal sector has shown a dominant performance, world bank research has shown some serious issues which are faced by the coal industry. Through this paper an attempt has been made to examine the trends, challenges and measures for achieving trade balance through various methods. In accordance to that, existing literature has been gathered with the topics consisting of Coal Exports and Coal Imports to illegal mining, innovative technology and foster ways which improve the quality of coal. The primary objective of this research articles aims in finding out the reasons which focuses for the huge imports and low imports of coal with an objective to achieve trade balance. Thus the conclusion is there are very uncharted areas which can be taken up by the researchers to find the trade balance of coal. For the statistical analysis the tools like Mann Whitney U - Test and Annual Growth Rate has been used using SPSS and the results are provided accordingly.

Impact of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Tax on India and other trading partners of EU

The European Union (EU) recently introduced the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) with the intention to impose a pricing mechanism on carbon emissions, originating during the production process of emission-intensive products, imported by EU from its non-EU trading partners. However, CBAM is facing a lot of criticism ̶ as an unfair, protectionist measure that threatens the principles of multilateral trading system and has a disproportionately biased impact on the overall welfare of the low-income developing countries. In this context, the paper empirically examines the impact of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on its trading partners by using the CGE GTAP-E model. The impact has been assessed across three pathways – export sales of the trading partners, the emission intensity of the products, and the overall impact on the welfare of the European Union’s (EU’s) trading partners using the GTAP 11 database. The impact varies across countries and sectors. The model estimates indicate that due to the imposition of CBAM, countries with existing domestic carbon pricing mechanism experience marginal increase in welfare with the UK being an exception. Contrastingly, countries with no carbon pricing mechanism will experience a decrease in overall welfare. Countries with a higher share of the EU in their total export basket are affected in terms of their export sales. India’s cement sector export is affected the most due to the imposition of CBAM. However, India’s total amount of exports of cement to the EU’s market is negligible. India’s export of iron and steel to the EU constitutes a larger share but the impact of CBAM is found to be negligible on the same.

Tea Trade Scenario in the Pre and Post Liberalization Period in India

Indian tea, which has maintained its supremacy both in production and export for more than a century, has started to lose its pre-eminence. Other tea producing countries like China, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Kenya are strongly competing for Market share. The increase in production in China has pushed India to second position in production and the country lost its domination of the export market to Kenya, China and Sri Lanka. Given this backdrop, the present study attempts to analyse the export growth, instability in export earnings, export quantity and unit value and concentration of export destinations evaluate India’s tea export performance. The growth of export quantity, value and unit value from India (1988-2022) was worked out using compound growth rate and the results indicated an increased growth in the post–WTO period which could be attributed to the expansion in trade to the Near East, with their growth and strength of the economies in the region (Hicks, 2009). Instability in export can affect the economic growth of the country as it has adverse effect on the countries export earnings, trade balance, and confidence of international trading partners. The export instability calculated using Coppock’s instability index showed an increasing trend in the post-WTO period. In 1990’s about 6 countries viz., U.S.S.R, U.K, Iran, Iraq, Egypt and Poland accounted for about 90 per cent of total tea exports from India. But over a period of time the demand in these countries weakened. The Indian exports continue to lose volume in countries like Russia Europe, USA and some middle east countries (Dutt, 2007). The share in Iraq, Netherland and Poland was maintained and it improved in UAE, Germany, Pakistan and china. Overall in the past 3 decades, India’s world ranking as an exporter has dropped to fourthowing to competition from China, Kenya and Sri Lanka. (Majumder et al., 2010). The reduction in values of the Hirschmann index indicated increased geographic diversification of tea exports thereby reducing the possibility of market risk due to dependence on few markets. The commodity diversification in the form of various tea products exported is very limited, the major share of exports being in the form of black tea especially in bulk form. Received: 1 February 2024 / Accepted: 29 April 2024 / Published: 5 May 2024

Turning green through within‐firm adjustment: Evidence from environmental court in China

AbstractThis paper investigates how the setup of special environmental courts is accountable for firms' internal adjustment of production and export across industries with different pollution intensities. Inspired by a simple theoretical model, we find that, after the establishment of environmental courts, firms see a larger decrease in export value, export quantity, export variety as well as export destination in more polluting industries. We further find different impacts on firms with varying ownership and size. These findings imply that companies reallocate their available resources from more polluting varieties to less polluting ones, thus turning green through this within‐firm adjustment.

Growth and Export Performance of Pineapple from India: An Economic Analysis

The present study was undertaken to know the growth and export performance of pineapple. Pineapple (Ananas Comosus) is a tropical fruit belonging to the Bromeliaceae family, and it is commercially cultivated worldwide as a high-value crop. India is the sixth largest producer in the world. The objective of the study was to elucidate the growth and export performance of the Pineapple from India.The secondary data for analysis was collected from AGMARKNET, National Horticultural Board (NHB) and Agricultural and Processed Food products Export Development (APEDA). The results of the growth rate revealed a positive and increasing trend in pineapple exports from India during the study period, with an annual growth rate of 9.78 percent in quantity and 6.39 percent in value, which is significant at a five percent level of probability. The results of the Cuddy Della Valle index indicated that pineapple exports from India exhibit moderate instability, with values of 17.17 and 19.90 percent in quantity and value terms, respectively. It reveals that the average Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) value for pineapple was 0.53, indicating a moderate level of export competitiveness. Throughout the entire period, it is evident that India did not demonstrate competitiveness in pineapple exports, as indicated by the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA) values consistently being below unity and the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) values being negative. The direction of the Indian pineapple trade was conducted using the Markov chain framework. Among the major importers, the United Arab Emirates stood out as one of the most stable markets with a high probability of retention at 0.624. Overall, Indian pineapple stands out as a reliable and competitive player in the global market, with a strong performance and potential for growth. Therefore, efforts should be focused on enhancing the quantity of exports while ensuring they meet the quality standards and align with the consumer preferences of other countries.