Exporting Countries Research Articles

Trade openness and growth in a small economy: Evidence from Malawi

AbstractEconomists often debate whether a country should pursue a discriminatory regional trade or the broader multilateral trade expansion. This paper contributes to the discourse by presenting empirical evidence on the impacts of regional and multilateral trade openness on economic growth of expansion in Malawi. Using the ARDL‐EC model and data spanning the period 1995–2020, the estimates show that the impact of multilateral trade openness on the long‐run growth rate is positive and statistically significant. At the disaggregated level, the results show that both intra‐ and extra‐African merchandise trade openness have positive and significant impact on the long‐run growth rate. The evidence also suggests that the impact of a change in the level of intra‐African merchandise trade openness on long‐run growth is larger than that of a similar change in the level of extra‐African merchandise trade openness. Thus, our results suggest that policymakers can pursue both regional and multilateral trade expansions simultaneously to accelerate Malawi's economic growth. To augment the benefits of trade, however, we recommend that policymakers focus on deepening intra‐African trade integration and diversifying the country's export base beyond the primary commodities; and to increase the processing of export products to enhance the dynamic benefits to spur faster growth.

Do Digital Adaptation, Energy Transition, Export Diversification, and Income Inequality Accelerate towards Load Capacity Factors across the Globe?

To limit global warming to 1.5 °C, it is imperative to accelerate the global energy transition. This transition is crucial for solving the climate issue and building a more sustainable future. Therefore, within the loaded capacity curve (LCC) theory framework, this study investigates the effects of digital adaptation, energy transition, export diversification, and income inequality on the load capacity factor (LCF). This study also attempts to investigate the integration effects of digital adaptation and energy transition, and digital adaptation and export diversification, on LCF. Furthermore, we explored how income inequality influences the LCF in economies. For this study, 112 countries were selected based on the data availability. Panel data from 2010 to 2021 were analyzed using the STATA software 13 application utilizing a two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. First, interestingly, our finding shows that digital adaptation and income significantly affect the LCF. An increase in income increases the LCF among the middle-income group of countries. Therefore, LCC is confirmed in this research. Surprisingly, energy transition, export diversification, and foreign direct investment negatively impact the LCF in the base model. Second, the impact of integrating digital adaptation and energy transition has a positive effect on LCF. Third, a negative correlation was observed between the interaction of export diversification and digital adaptation with the LCF. Fourth, a positive correlation was observed between the interaction of renewable energy and digital adaptation with the LCF. Finally, this study explores the impact of the energy transition, export diversification, and income inequality on the LCF with reference to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The result shows a negative effect between export diversification and LCF among OPECs at a 10% significance level. To improve the quality of our planet, policymakers must understand the forces causing climate change. By adopting a comprehensive perspective, the study aims to understand how these interrelated factors collaboratively influence the LCF thoroughly. Additionally, this research seeks to provide valuable insights related to energy transition, digital adaptation, and export diversification to policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders regarding possible avenues for cultivating a more joyful and sustainable global community.

Trade potential in the agricultural cooperation between Russia and ASEAN countries in conditions of world economic system fragmentation

In the article the level of food security of the ASEAN countries and Russia was determined using the Global Food Security Index, on the basis of which an analysis was made of the demand for each of the economies of the Association and the possibilities of trade cooperation with Russia in certain categories of agro-industrial products. Additionally, the article shows the key trading partners of the ASEAN countries in both export and import of agricultural products, and also identifies the position of the Russian economy among the category of so-called “other trading partners”. Based on statistical data, taking into account the current volumes of trade potential of the Russian economy, three categories of ASEAN countries were identified, for each of which a categorical analysis of the demand for agricultural products was carried out and the potential for interaction with Russia was identified.

Vulnerabilities of the neoliberal global food system: The Russia–Ukraine War and COVID‐19

AbstractThe coronavirus 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war have demonstrated that the neoliberal system is unstable during global crises. In times of crisis, exporter countries adopt protectionist policies in the form of export restrictions to safeguard their local food supply and curb inflation. Consequently, low‐income countries might find themselves unable to access essential food products. In this regard, the aftermath of the COVID‐19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war has gradually increased export restrictions, causing severe food supply disruptions. In particular, import‐dependent countries cannot access essential food products and face famine. To this point, this study explores the vulnerabilities of neoliberalism when exporter countries turn to protectionism. Moreover, it asks whether food sovereignty and self‐sufficiency could act as a safeguard for import‐dependent states against such vulnerabilities. In doing so, the study aims to contribute to the literature by linking protectionism with export restrictions, diverging from the more common association of protectionism with solely import restrictions.

Economic growth in OPEC nations: The role of renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and foreign direct investment

Background: The nations that make up OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) have traditionally depended on gas and oil export earnings. However, there is a significant global shift towards renewable energy in an effort to reduce the impact of climate change. This research aims to analyze the effect of Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the Economic Growth in OPEC Nations partially and simultaneously. Methods: In this research, panel data regression analysis techniques are combined with quantitative research approaches. Secondary data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) for the years 2001–2020 were used in this research. Finding: This research showed that the Renewable Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions variables do not affect economic growth in OPEC countries. Meanwhile, the foreign direct investment variable has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in OPEC countries. Conclusion: OPEC countries need to diversify their economies and reduce their dependence on oil as there is a global shift towards cleaner energy. Novelty/Originality of this article: This study analyzes the impact of Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in OPEC countries using panel data regression analysis. The study's findings show that only Foreign Direct Investment positively and significantly impacts economic growth.

A Pan-Asian Energy Transition? The New Rationale for Decarbonization Policies in the World’s Largest Energy Exporting Countries: A Case Study of Qatar and Other GCC Countries

Climate change has become a major agenda item in international relations and in national energy policy-making circles around the world. This review studies the surprising evolution of the energy policy, and more particularly the energy transition, currently happening in the Arabian Gulf region, which features some of the world’s largest exporters of oil and gas. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and other neighboring energy exporters plan to export blue and green hydrogen across Asia as well as towards Europe in the years and decades to come. Although poorly known and understood abroad, this recent strategy does not threaten the current exports of oil and gas (still needed for a few decades) but prepares the evolution of their national energy industries toward the future decarbonized energy demand of their main customers in East and South Asia, and beyond. The world’s largest exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas, Qatar, has established industrial policies and projects to upscale CCUS, which can enable blue hydrogen production, as well as natural carbon sinks domestically via afforestation projects.

A sectoral analysis of a developing country's exports in the context of trade integration: Evidence from Colombia

The research delves into the effectiveness of Colombia's trade liberalisation process in boosting its exports at the industrial level. Based on an empirical workhorse approach to international trade, the gravity model, we evaluate the effect of trade openness on Colombian exports at the industrial level following the SITC4 categorisation. For this purpose, panel data on Colombian exports to all its trading partners between 2007 and 2020 were used. The results establish that Colombia's trade openness has boosted the exports of most of its industries, except for exports of the mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials group, which is a group of goods that represents the country's largest exports. Furthermore, the research also confirms the prominent impact of labour productivity in boosting Colombian exports of most product groups. Consequently, Colombian policymakers should support a re-composition of the Colombian export basket in order to take proper advantage of trade integration formulas, within a global energy transition framework.

India-Vietnam Bilateral Trade and Investment Relations: An Empirical Analysis

The relations between India and Vietnam have been strengthening in both social and economic aspects. The bilateral trade and investment relations between the two countries are on an upward trend. In this context, the present paper analyzes the trade intensity between India and Vietnam and provides an overview of the investment relations. The study also examines the impact of the host country's GDP and exchange rate on the home country's export level for both India and Vietnam using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network technique of Artificial Neural Network. The main findings of the study show that before 2017, India's exports are more intensive than imports with Vietnam and Vietnam's imports are more intensive than exports with India. However, since 2017, this trend is slightly reversed and Vietnam's exports are more intense than imports with India. Furthermore, it is found that the host country's GDP and exchange rate have a significant impact on India and Vietnam's bilateral exports.

The Stateof Exports of High-Tech Products in Russia

Aim. To determine the general state of Russia’s high-tech exports in the following areas: the relationship with other sectors of the economy and with the dynamics of GDP, positions on the world stage, relations with partner countries.Tasks. To achieve the aim of the study, the following tasks were set: to consider the dynamics of Russia’s export structure, to explore Russia’s position in the world in high-tech exports, to calculate the time lag of Russia’s lag behind the leading countries in high-tech exports, to analyze Russia’s role in the hightech market of the main partner countries, to explore the structure of Russia’shigh-tech exports in the context of commodity groups.Methods. To determine high-tech exports and imports, the methodology of the World Bank is used, according to which 9 industries (aerospace, computer and office equipment, electronics and telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electric machines, chemicals, nonelectric machines and weapons), including 79 commodity nomenclatures. At the same time, based on the availability of information, the values for the export of weapons are not taken into account.Results. The analysis of changes in high-tech exports has been carried out, which identifies periods of negative changes that coincide with periods characterized by adverse circumstances in the country and the world (pandemic, geopolitical and geo-economic tensions). When comparing graphs of high-tech exports and GDP, ambiguous results were obtained, taking into account the consideration of high-tech exports in calculating GDP. The time lags of the backlog have been calculated, according to which, in most cases, the values of the leading countries in high-tech exports are achievable, but the time lags themselves are enormous. The commodity spectrum of high-tech exports and imports of the Russia is considered, according to which Russia exports the entire commodity spectrum of the high-tech industry.Conclusions. The dominant role in Russia’s exports is still assigned to fuel and mining products with observed changes in terms of increasing the share of industrial products, including high-tech products, in which Russia, although an active participant, is nevertheless at a disadvantage in interactions with the main partner countries.

Towards Sustainable Energy Development: Integrating Traditional and Renewable Energy in Azerbaijan’s Energy Policy

The article examines the formation of Azerbaijan's energy policy and the multivector development of its fuel and energy complex. In the context of global transformations and changes in energy flow structures, the author emphasizes the balanced development of both hydrocarbon and carbon-free segments of energy. The proposed concept of sustainable energy development envisages the harmonious coexistence of traditional and renewable energy, enhancing Azerbaijan's economic stability and geopolitical influence. The significant role of the oil and gas sector, demonstrated by successful projects and substantial foreign investments, is reinforced by the active development of renewable energy sources. Azerbaijan implements large-scale projects in wind and solar energy, as well as initiatives for the production of «green» hydrogen, which contributes not only to the reduction of emissions but also to the expansion of the country's export potential. The article highlights the importance of balanced FEC development, focusing on emission minimization through the application of carbon capture and utilization (CCUS) technologies, as well as the need for infrastructure modernization to improve energy efficiency. Azerbaijan demonstrates a unique case where traditional and renewable energy do not compete but complement each other, strengthening its positions in international cooperation and within the framework of the Greater Eurasian Partnership.

Trade and Inequality-considerations of the Gini Coefficient, Female Employment, Natural Resources, and Economic Growth

With the deepening development of globalization and world trade, the gap between human individuals has been paid more and more attention by researchers in the field of economic and social sciences. However, a large body of literature focuses on the inequality caused by trade and globalization, while relatively ignoring other inequality factors, such as women's participation in the work force, especially in developing countries with low international influence. This paper refers to the exports of goods and services (% of GDP), the Gini coefficient, the share of female labor force in the total labor force, natural resource rental income (% of GDP), the natural logarithm of GDP per capita (economic growth) of 20 different developing countries with the highest trade volume in the world. The interrelation of exports of goods and services, as a percent of GDP, to the latter four is analyzed. A multiple regression model was set up. The model results show that a country's export of goods and services is not significantly correlated with the Gini coefficient, indicating that trade does not directly cause the expansion of a country's income gap; As the trade volume is significantly positively correlated with the number of female labor force, it indicates that the expansion of trade makes more women participate in the work force. For some countries, exports of goods and services are significantly and positively related to the country's natural resource rental income, while for some countries they are not. The export of goods and services has a significantly positive correlation effect on a country's economic growth.

Do OPEC+ policies help predict the oil price: A novel news-based predictor

The OPEC+, composed of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil-producing countries, exerts considerable influence over the global crude oil market. However, existing literature lacks a comprehensive application of this factor in oil price forecasting, primarily due to the complexity of measuring such policy evolutions. To address this research gap, this study develops a news-based OPEC+ policy index based on text mining methods for comprehensive analysis and forecasting of the oil price. First, by crawling and mining news headlines related to OPEC+ production decisions, a dynamic and high-frequency (weekly) OPEC+ policy index is established. Second, the linear and nonlinear relationship between the proposed OPEC+ policy index and the WTI crude oil futures price is thoroughly examined, assessing the potential predictive power of the index in explaining the movements of the crude oil price. Third, the forecasting efficacy of the constructed index on the oil price is rigorously evaluated across eight econometric and machine learning models. Key findings include: (1) The proposed weekly OPEC+ policy index demonstrates strong concordance with OPEC+ production change decisions, exhibiting notable peaks and troughs corresponding to OPEC+ Ministerial Meetings. (2) The relationship analysis demonstrates a strong linear and nonlinear association between the proposed OPEC+ policy index and the crude oil price. (3) For oil price prediction, models incorporating our proposed OPEC+ policy index demonstrate superior performance compared to models without this index. In particular, the index exhibits a more significant predictive effect within three-week forecasting horizons and performs exceptionally well during periods of pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In addition, the OPEC+ policy index also exhibits a significant predictive effect on the daily crude oil price and natural gas price, further confirming the robust and powerful forecasting capability of this index within the energy system.

Predicting High Technology Exports of Countries for Sustainable Economic Growth by Using Machine Learning Techniques: The Case of Turkey

In this study, the estimation of high-tech exports for Turkey’s foreign trade target in line with sustainable development was carried out. The research was carried out for Turkey since it has been focusing on sustainable and environmentally friendly production and an export-oriented growth model, with a transformation in its economic growth strategy as of 2021, and high-tech products are a determining factor in the export target. In this research, three different machine learning techniques, namely artificial neural networks, logistic regression, and support vector regression, were used to determine a successful prediction method close to the ideal scenario. In the models, high technology exports for the period of 2007–2023 with data obtained from the World Bank were taken as the dependent variable, while the gross national product, number of patents, and research and development expenditures were taken as independent variables. By calculating the R2, MAPE, and MSE metrics, the success of the model with the least error was evaluated, and it was seen that artificial neural networks (ANNs) were the most successful model, with values of 94.2%, 0.011, and 0.073, respectively. The ANN model was followed by support regression and logistic regression.

Формування товарної структури експорту України в умовах глобалізаційних викликів

The article examines the composition of the commodity structure of export and the factors of its formation in the conditions of globalization. It is proposed that the concept of commodity structure of exports should be understood not only as the distribution of a country's exports by different categories of goods and services in the structure of its output, but also as the distribution by their innovation, complexity and difference. As a result of the classification of the factors of the internal (national) and external (global) environment, their features for different countries were determined. The main internal factors were classified into three categories: economic, institutional and innovative. External factors that form global, political and technological factors are analyzed, each of which also consists of several elements. It was considered how the existing models of the formation of the commodity structure of exports for Ukraine are influenced by globalization factors, which were grouped into ecological, geopolitical and crisis (pandemic) factors. Methods of taking globalization challenges into account have been developed and ways of forming the commodity structure of exports during the Russian-Ukrainian war have been proposed.

Dynamic analysis of the relationship between exchange rates and oil prices: a comparison between oil exporting and oil importing countries

Addressing the interconnectedness of oil prices and foreign exchange rates poses a substantial challenge and raises significant questions within economic research. Existing studies reveal a fragmented understanding of the dynamics between these crucial variables, highlighting a need for deeper investigation. This study extends previous research by employing the time-varying parameter VAR extended joint connectedness model and using the baseline approach called the generalized connectedness approach. Our research findings indicate that exchange rates and crude oil prices exhibit pairwise and total connectedness, varying over time. Furthermore, this connectedness experiences substantial increases during severe crisis periods. We uncover that exchange rates and crude oil prices not only share a dynamic, pairwise, and total connectedness but these results are stronger for oil exporting countries. However, these methods yield inconsistent results for various countries. Moreover, there is compelling evidence that fluctuations in exchange rates and oil prices can cause bi-directional and time-dependent shocks.

The effect of exchange rate, inflation, interest rate and import on exports in ASEAN countries

The effect of exchange rate, inflation, interest rate and import on exports in ASEAN countries

Green subsidies as strategic trade policy tools

In a third-country market model in which two export countries adopt environmental policies (taxes and subsidies), this article analyses how an abatement (“green”) subsidy can become a potential strategic trade policy tool. When governments set the optimal policy considering their local environmental damages, a rich set of equilibria arises. In contrast to the standard result, it is shown that subsidising pollution abatement can 1) emerge as the unique Pareto-efficient Nash equilibrium of the policy game, 2) be the only feasible environmental policy when environmental awareness is low, irrespective of the efficiency of the cleaning technology, and 3) emerge as the unique Pareto-inefficient Nash equilibrium of the policy game at the end of the ecological transition. The article also tackles some dynamic issues that the policy game implies.

Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous panels with cross-sectional dependence

AbstractThis paper proposes a panel Granger causality approach for heterogeneous panels with cross-sectional dependence. We define a panel VAR model with unobserved common factors and apply the PANIC procedure to obtain the de-factored data. We then estimate the lag augmented (LA)-VAR model for each cross section and construct the panel statistics based on the meta-analytic approach that combines the p-values of the individual statistics. The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the combination tests show good size and power properties and appear suitable for the panels where cross sections may have different unit root or co-integration properties. We finally re-investigate Granger causality between export and economic growth in OECD countries. The results shed light on the importance of accounting for cross-sectional dependence within a factor model framework in determining direction of Granger causality for country-specific analysis. The results further reveal that export and economic growth do not cause each other in the majority of the European Union countries.

Influence assessment of shut-in duration and well startup sequence in different geological and field conditions

During 2019-2021, about half of well stock at West Siberian oil fields were shut down for a long period (up to one and a half year) due to oil production restrictions under the agreement between Russia and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). There have never been such large-scale and prolonged shutdowns before. After starting from a long-term shutdown, the flow rate of some wells increased, while others decreased.The main aim of research is to assess the geological and technological factors affecting the results of starting wells after a long shutdown. Statistical methods were used, including multivariate regression analysis, assessing the influence of parameters on each other using trend lines on cross-plots, as well as constructing and comparing maps of geological and technological parameters.As a result, the influence of the duration of downtime, the simultaneity of shutdown of production and injection wells and compensation of production by injection was determined. That will help to reduce losses in case of repeated production restrictions by selecting optimal candidates for shutdown.

Pengaruh Ekspor Dan Impor Terhadap Neraca Perdagangan Di Indonesia

Indonesia has a direct relationship with export and import activities. The trade balance includes export and import activities, being a record that records all product transactions carried out by a country. As an important instrument, the trade balance provides a comprehensive picture of a country's export and import situation. When exports are less than imports, it is called a deficit, conversely, if exports are greater than imports, it is called a surplus. When exports and imports are balanced, the trade balance is considered equal. This research aims to identify the impact of imports and exports on Indonesia's trade balance in 2021. The research method applied is a quantitative approach, by collecting data and information from various sources and literature. The data was then processed and analyzed using a multiple linear regression model with the SPSS 25 software package and its data analysis capabilities. From the research results, it was found that the significance value of exports and imports was 0.00, which shows that exports and imports have quite a large influence on the trade balance in Indonesia. namely 0.921.