Resource Exports Research Articles

Assessing the Influence of Economic Factors on the Dynamics of Exports of Russian Oil and Petroleum Products Based on the Use of a Combination of PEST and SWOT Analysis Methods

The presented work is part of a series of articles devoted to assessing the influence of external factors on the dynamics of Russian exports. In this and subsequent related works, the authors proposed to consider the external environment, which had a significant impact on the dynamics of Russian exports and the relative diffi culty of revising its structure, the basis of commodity exports of which in value terms are hydrocarbon energy carriers. This work represents a conceptual basis for the use of instrumental methods for assessing the influence of external factors, in this case, economic ones, on the integral and sectoral indicators of Russian exports and, in particular, on the export of hydrocarbon energy resources. In the second part of this article, it is proposed to use a set of environmental analysis methods, the basis of which was the previously successfully used mechanism for combining the methods of PESTEL and SWOT analysis, which will make it possible, based on the use of scores, to describe the cumulative influence of external factors on the dynamics of the main industries of Russian exports. The novelty of the presented approach lies in the absence of a methodology for a comprehensive assessment of the influence of external factors on the dynamics of Russian exports using the selected tools, which seems useful and timely in light of the emergence of new political and economic factors that have a significant impact on Russian foreign trade in general and on the dynamics of the carbohydrate energy market , in particular. The parameters for assessing external factors proposed by the authors were chosen by the author independently, taking into account the modern realities of the development of the world economy, which can also represent a separate point of novelty of the research conducted or be part of one of the existing points of novelty of the presented work. The merit of the authors of this work lies in the fact that this work proposed their own vision of a comprehensive assessment of the influence of external factors on the dynamics of the country’s exports.

New Trends in Migration from Kyrgyzstan to the Russian Federation

In recent decades, population migration has become one of the main components of socio-economic development of Kyrgyzstan. In recent years, Kyrgyz citizens have been working in Russia and Kazakhstan. A comparative analysis of the number and structure of flows of Kyrgyz labour migrants is carried out on the basis of data from a sample national survey of household budgets, the National Statistical Committee of Kyrgyzstan, the Federal Migration Service of Russia, the Main Directorate for Migration Issues of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, and Rosstat. The key problems of the social and legal situation of Kyrgyz migrants in Russia were identified: lack of registration at the place of stay, restriction/ ban on entry, non-payment of wages, access to medical care, and receipt of pensions. Gradually, under the influence of external and internal factors, new trends of labour migration to the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, the Republic of Korea and Japan, Europe and America have emerged. Migration flows are becoming more and more organised, as they involve the country's public authorities, private employment agencies, international companies and other actors. The study shows that the key needs for Kyrgyz migrant workers in the near future are concentrated in the following regions (in addition to traditional destinations): first, Western European countries (Great Britain and Germany); second, East Asia (Republic of Korea and Japan); third, Eastern European countries (Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria); fourth, the Middle East (Turkey and the Gulf countries); fifth, Northern Europe (Sweden and Finland). The official discourse in Kyrgyzstan is increasingly gaining momentum on the need to transform migration policy from large-scale export of labour resources to employment of surplus labour resources within the country by creating new jobs and expanding production. New ideological approaches to the transition of Kyrgyzstan from the category of countries– exporters of labour resources to the category of countries actively developing their own production and labour market are practically formed.

Examining the impact of mineral export controls on sustainable energy transition in the global south

Export control policies for mineral resources may constrain the development of countries in the Global South. This study used data from 31 countries from 2009 to 2021 and employed a double fixed effects (FE) model to explore the impact of mineral resource export control policies implemented by countries in the Global South on sustainable energy transition. Our results show that prohibiting the export of base metals and ores significantly inhibits energy transitions. Moreover, energy transition performance improves when only licensing requirements are implemented without the enforcement of export bans and taxes. This study also highlights the importance of improved governance in mitigating the adverse effects of export prohibitions. Improvements in governance, such as corruption control, regulatory quality, rule of law, and voice/accountability, provide institutional guarantees for sustainable energy transition. This study also provides insights into measures that can help the countries in the Global South to balance resource conservation and clean energy development.

Миграционный процесс как фактор обеспечения финансово-правовой политики Республики Таджикистан

The relevance of the article under consideration is due to the fact that the migration process affects the political, social, financial and legal policy and security of the state. It notes that the migration process currently acts as an indicator that regulates the financial and legal policy of the state and the population of the Republic of Tajikistan. The emerging outflow of the young generation of the country, including educated and qualified personnel, indicates insufficiently high wages and living standards in the republic. Based on this, the author believes that due to the growing number of migrants from the countries of the exporter of labor resources, at the same time in the host country, new problems arise in terms of adaptation to life in big cities, mentality, legislation and labor law and order. The modern globalization of migration processes also transforms to more reasonable relations of rapprochement of peoples, legal interethnic relations, the study of history, culture, customs, traditions, customs and many other factors of national values from each other, creating friendly relations, where they unite them even more, develop friendship between peoples. All this is a sign that the host country has a positive attitude towards the migration flow. The task of the state, the exporting labor force and the country receiving labor resources is, first of all, independently, taking into account the circumstances and certain principles of public administration, to harmonize migration legislation in order to stabilize and develop it. Since public administration in this area is an independent area of activity of executive authorities, directly related to ensuring state security and socio-economic development of the country, the state faces the task of systematizing migration legislation. The author comes to the conclusion that, together with the multiplicity and sometimes inconsistency of legal acts in the field of migration, their application is significantly more difficult, which leads to inconsistency in the actions of law enforcement agencies that regulate these processes. In addition, there are barriers to providing social protection for migrants that lead to discrimination, such as labor, legal, language and cultural barriers, insufficient information about the rights of migrants to social protection and the mechanism for their implementation.

Skill intensity in manufacturing exports: Do basic, technology-intensive or differentiated exports cause growth in Kuwait?

This study examines the causality between basic, technology-intensive, and differentiated manufacturing exports and economic growth in Kuwait using data from 1970 to 2021 and two augmented production function models: one with natural resource exports (Model 1) and the other without on both sides of the model (Model 2). The Johansen cointegration and the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) bound tests are conducted to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. In addition, the Granger causality test in a vector autoregressive framework (VAR) and the Toda–Yamamoto test are employed to explore the directions of the short- and long-run causality between variables, respectively. The empirical results of Model 1 indicate that neither of the decomposed manufacturing exports directly causes economic growth in the short or long run at any conventional significance level, whereas natural resource exports cause economic growth, basic and technology-intensive manufactured exports in the short-run at the 5% level. Model 2 estimations confirm the absence of direct causality between decomposed manufacturing exports and economic growth, whereas a long-run causality runs from output net of natural resource exports to basic manufactured exports at the 10% level. Both model estimations indicate that all the variables jointly cause economic growth and basic manufactured exports in the short and long run, directly or indirectly through imports, confirming the existence of a circular causation. These findings can serve as the basis for designing specific export–import policies to foster diversification and a sustainable economic growth in line with Kuwait’s Vision 2035.

Are natural resources a curse, a blessing, or a double-edged sword? Implications for environmental sustainability

Natural resources have a significant impact on economic and political landscapes of developing countries which determines environmental sustainability. This study explores the convoluted connection between governance and natural resources, examining how resource abundance might influence governance quality. The main components of this dynamic that the theoretical framework considers are the Rentier effects, the repression effects, and the obstruction of modernization. This study creates a governance index applying principal component analysis (PCA) on several governance characteristics, such as political stability, rule of law, government efficacy, regulation and control of corruption, to measure governance comprehensively. Natural resource exports, rents, and the differentiation between renewable and non-renewable natural resources are the three proxies used to quantify natural resources, providing a more nuanced view. To calculate the effect of renewable and non-renewable natural resources on governance in developing nations, the econometric methodology uses a dynamic panel model and system GMM. This analysis reveals that the ability of renewable resources to promote inclusive development has a favourable impact on governance. On the other hand, non-renewable resources show a negative correlation, mainly because of their vulnerability to swings in the world price and their propensity to consolidate power and promote corruption. The significance of differentiating between natural resource types is highlighted in this study, along with the possible advantages of renewable resources for governance and the disadvantages of an over-reliance on non-renewable resources. Policymakers, researchers, and practitioners interested in the development and governance difficulties encountered by resource-rich developing nations can benefit greatly from this research's larger and more complex understanding of the link between natural resources and governance.

Study on the Impact of State Relations on Chinas Industrial Supply Chain Upstream from the Perspective of International Trade: A Case Study of Mineral Resources

As a major global power, Chinas overseas interests are rapidly expanding. Ensuring the security of industrial supply chains has become a critical issue. This paper adopts the perspective of international trade, utilizing the random frontier gravity model, and focuses on the top five mineral products and raw materials exported from China to India according to the 2019 export composition table of the Ministry of Commerce of the Peoples Republic of China. Based on export data of these minerals from China to India between 2008 and 2023, this paper analyzes the trends in mineral import and export, studies the correlation between bilateral trade between China and India and changes in Sino-Indian relations, and points out the potential impact of current Sino-Indian relations on Chinas upstream industrial chain. The study finds that for mineral fuels, mineral oils and their products, asphalt, zinc and its products, and steel products, Sino-Indian relations have a relatively minor impact on Chinas imports of such minerals and raw materials from India. However, for steel resources, Sino-Indian relations show a significant positive correlation with their import situation. Based on the current state of Sino-Indian relations, the study will propose relevant recommendations for the production and export of Indian steel and other mineral resources, combined with the needs of Chinas upstream industrial supply chain. This study aims to provide relevant insights and references for safeguarding Chinas strategic mineral resource security.

Analysis of the Competitiveness, Complementarity, and Trade Combination of Kazakhstan and China in the Oil and Gas Trade

The oil and gas trade is one of the main ways to promote regional economic development by improving the effectiveness of resource allocation. While regional energy cooperation could lead to growth in the energy trade, blind investment will reduce effective yields. Kazakhstan and China maintain a stable oil and gas trade, but resource exports to China are not growing as expected. The aim of this research is to analyze the competitiveness and complementarity of Kazakhstan and China in the oil and gas trade, as well as the main factors affecting the oil and gas trade between Kazakhstan and China. By creating a linear regression equation to analyze the gravity model of the oil and gas trade between Kazakhstan and China, it was revealed that a 1% growth of the gross domestic product in both countries would lead to a 1.471% increase in the oil and gas trade. However, an increase in oil and gas production in Kazakhstan will not contribute to the expansion of the oil and gas trade with China. Kazakhstan and China could improve their oil and gas trade by strengthening financial cooperation, improving energy efficiency, increasing investment in infrastructure such as oil refineries and pipelines, and developing new oil and gas fields in Kazakhstan.

A Multivariate Analysis of the Interplay between Energy Resources, Economic Growth, and Financial Stability. Evidence from Azerbaijan

Abstract The aim of this research is to conduct an objective and predictive evaluation of Azerbaijan's economic growth from 1997 to 2022. Since Azerbaijan is a significant exporter and producer of energy resources, its economic growth is substantially influenced by the remarkable advancements in oil and gas extraction and production since the early 2000s. Methodologically, we have designed several models to ascertain the influence and impact of the following explanatory factors-oil reserves, natural gas reserves, net trade, current account balance, inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate and carbon dioxide emissions - on the economic growth rate. The study utilised a combination of uni- and multi-factorial linear regression techniques, with accuracy and robustness testing conducted on all eight models. Research hypotheses were tested and a predictive analysis was implemented and evaluated over the studied period. Our findings demonstrate that the growth of Azerbaijan's economy is positively impacted by the dynamics and development of energy product trade, particularly in oil. As a result, GDP increased by an average of 2.50%. It is also confirmed that inflation and unemployment have a negative impact which unavoidably leads to instability and an economic downturn. In contrast, the robustness indicators (namely, RMSE, MAE and MAPE) could assess the predictive analysis of economic growth. The validated, low values further endorse the credibility of the eight models in accurately forecasting the economic growth rate throughout the studied period. The study disproves the existence of a positive correlation between GDP and the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions. However, it has been demonstrated that Azerbaijan is taking significant measures to achieve its environmental objectives. These measures include the implementation of taxation, a reduction in CO2 emissions by up to 55% by 2030, and a shift towards renewable energy sources. Our research aims to enhance the utilisation of renewable energy resources, increase the efficiency of the domestic energy infrastructure and implement measures to moderate high levels of unemployment and inflation, thus ensuring sustained economic growth in Azerbaijan.

ВЛИЯНИЕ НЕОЛИБЕРАЛЬНОЙ ИДЕОЛОГИИ НА СОЦИАЛЬНО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ РАЗВИТИЕ СЫРЬЕВЫХ РЕГИОНОВ РОССИИ

Neoliberalism, as an ideology, influences various industries and regions in Russia to varying degrees. In industry regions, this influence can be especially pronounced, given the specifics of economic activity and socio-economic conditions. That is why it is important to take into account and measure the positive and negative impact of neoliberal policies in relation to regions with single-industry specialization. This article examines the impact of neoliberal ideology on the socio-economic development of the raw material regions of the Russian Federation. The analysis of the basic principles of neoliberalism and their impact on economic policy, especially in the context of regions dependent on the extraction and export of natural resources, is carried out. To achieve the purpose of the study, qualitative and quantitative methods were used, including the analysis of official statistical data, a literary review and expert assessments. The article examines the changes in the economic structure, standard of living and social sphere of these regions under the influence of neoliberal reforms. Special attention is paid to the growth of social inequalities, the deterioration of working and living conditions of the population. The results of the conducted research can be used for the development and successful implementation of subsequent programs for the development of raw materials regions. The article offers recommendations on adjusting economic policy in order to mitigate the negative effects of neoliberal principles on raw material regions and increase sustainable socio-economic development.

Key forecasts and prospects for green transition in the region of Central Asia beyond 2022

BackgroundThe transition to energy-sustainable systems is a globally accepted concept, but it is implemented with various degrees of success around the world. The aim of this paper is to determine the status of green transition in five Central Asian countries (Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and the Kyrgyz Republic) that are among the highest energy consumers globally and the most vulnerable to climate change. Despite a notable improvement in living conditions across all countries over the past two decades, the region remains underdeveloped. Economic growth is based on the export of natural resources and remittance inflows, but the structure of the economy is monolithic.Main findingsUpon analysing transition indicators for the period 2000–2020, no evidence of significant changes towards a sustainable energy transition is found. All countries in the region (except Uzbekistan) have recorded an increase in carbon emissions, while the carbon intensity of the energy mix is almost the same. While there has been visible progress in reducing energy intensity, the countries in the region remain among the most energy-intensive economies. Despite the region’s substantial potential for renewable energy production, it remains underutilized.ConclusionsA multitude of varied problems accompanies the green transition in Central Asian countries. The energy market that has not yet been liberalised, along with significant subsidies and low energy tariffs, discourages investments in renewable energy sources and energy efficiency initiatives. A high level of corruption, rigid legislative and institutional infrastructure, and insufficient capital are additional factors that determine the speed, scope, and effectiveness of the green transition. Thus far, the primary focus in these countries has been on ensuring energy security. However, there has been a discernible surge in investments (particularly from China) in renewable energy projects. Although energy efficiency and climate change issues are formally defined, the energy transition goals are often declarative without an action plan that provides concrete steps in transition process. Strategic planing of economic development that includes all related sectors (not only the energy sector) and paying attention to socio-economic and environmental indicators of sustainable development are prerequisites for successfully implementating the energy transition in these countries.

Australian innovative activity and international technology, 1854–2016

Abstract Has Australia’s focus as a producer and exporter of natural resources—often considered low technology industries—constrained the development of its innovation system? We exploit a new digital database from the Commonwealth Patent Office to investigate this question. We find that the focus of domestic innovativeness supported key industries for Australian development and complemented technological specialization by foreign patent applicants, particularly in European and American manufacturing. The results support the argument that shifts in national technological orientation is a relatively long game and that technical advantage is shaped by a nation’s stage of economic development.

АГРАРНЫЙ СЕКТОР РЕГИОНОВ РОССИИ: ОТВЕТЫ НА ВЫЗОВЫ ДИНАМИЧНОЙ СТРАТЕГИЕЙ РАЗВИТИЯ

The agricultural sector of the Russian Federation is one of the priority and strategic areas of development, which receives special attention from the state, since it is not only the guarantor of our country’s food independence, but also a very significant export resource that replenishes the country’s budget. The article analyzes the dynamics of the efficiency of crop production in the Russian Federation, in particular the group of grain and leguminous crops, both in the country as a whole and in the context of federal districts. The dynamics of indicators of sown areas, yields, gross harvest, as well as production efficiency of agricultural enterprises operating in the crop production industry, not only on the scale of the Russian Federation, but also at the level of territorial-administrative entities of Russia - federal districts, have been studied.

Microplastic contamination in Ashtamudi Lake, India: Insights from a Ramsar wetland

Estuaries function as temporary storage sites for plastic debris, influencing the distribution of microplastics (MPs) across ecosystems. This research delves into the presence of MPs in the water, sediment, fish, and shellfish of Ashtamudi Lake, a Ramsar wetland with brackish water located on the southwest coast of India. Given the lake's significance in supporting the livelihoods of numerous fishers and acting as a vital source of fishery resources for both local consumption and export, examining the contamination of the system by MPs becomes particularly pertinent. The highest percentage composition of MPs was found in macrofauna at 60.6% (with fish at 19.6% and shellfish at 40.9%), followed by sediment (22.8%) and water (16.7%). The primary types of MPs identified in all samples were fibers (35.6%), fragments (33.3%), and films (28%), with beads being the least represented at 3.03%. ATR-FTIR and Raman spectra analysis identified five polymers from shellfish (polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene, nylon, and polyvinyl chloride), five from fish guts (nylon, polypropylene, polyethylene, polyurethane, and polysiloxane), four in sediment (polypropylene, polyethylene, nylon, rayon), and four in water samples (polypropylene, polyethylene, nylon, and polystyrene). SEM-EDAX analysis of MPs obtained from the samples revealed degradation and the presence of inorganic elements such as Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, K, Cl, P, and Ca, as well as heavy metals like Pb, Mo, Rh, Pd, Ti, and Fe. The existence of these plastic polymers and heavy metals in microplastic samples poses a threat to vulnerable biota; people consume contaminated fish and shellfish, underscoring the importance of monitoring MPs in lake water. This investigation of MPs in Ashtamudi Lake highlights the system's susceptibility to plastic pollution and the bioavailability of smaller MPs to aquatic organisms. Identified sources of MPs in the lake include fishing and aquaculture activities, sewage pollution, improper solid waste management in lake watersheds, and unsustainable tourism. Upstream and downstream management interventions are recommended to address MP pollution in Ashtamudi Lake.

How much a dollar cost: Currency hierarchy as a driver of ecologically unequal exchange

Asymmetric transfers of biophysical resources from the Global South to the North are a key obstacle to sustainable development. The underlying causal drivers of this ‘ecologically unequal exchange’ are not well understood. This paper accounts for the causal role of hierarchy between currencies as one driver of ecologically unequal exchange. Drawing on dependency theory, I propose testable hypotheses that explain why countries that issue internationally acceptable currencies create net inflows of embodied labour, land, energy, raw materials, and carbon from countries whose currencies lack international acceptability: Countries with lower-ranking currencies face higher interest rates, which constrain their policy space, drive income outflows, and necessitate resource exports. Such countries also tend to have lower price levels (measured as the ratio between exchange rates and purchasing power parity rates) because their currencies are not demanded internationally, resulting in reduced dollar income per exported resource. To test these hypotheses, I use a novel categorical operationalization of currency hierarchy. I compare different observable correlations to the theoretical correlations implied by the proposed hypotheses, and test multiple regression models against cross-country data. Overall, the results are consistent with the hypotheses. Considering alternative explanations, the conclusion seems justified that currency hierarchy is a significant driver of ecologically unequal exchange, and that this mechanism operates specifically through cross-country divergences in interest rates and exchange rates. In short, the monetary cost of a dollar impacts the biophysical cost of a dollar.

Dutch Disease and the Future of the GCC Economies

Dutch disease happens when a country's economy becomes overly reliant on the export of a single natural resource. This can have various negative implications, including the weakening of other sectors of the economy, a rise in the currency's value, and an increase in the cost of living. This research investigates the evidence for Dutch Disease in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations. According to the study's findings, there is some indication that Dutch Disease exists in these nations. The positive connections between gas production, raw petroleum output, and GDP suggest that increasing production of these commodities leads to economic expansion, as measured by GDP. However, the considerable negative link between the percentage of non-petroleum exports and the consumer price index shows that the nonpetroleum export industry tends to diminish as gas and petroleum output grows. The study's conclusions have a variety of ramifications for the GCC countries. For starters, it proposes that the government avoid using oil and gas earnings to fuel excessive government expenditure. That might lead to Dutch Disease and undermine the economy's nonoil sector. Second, the government should adopt initiatives to encourage non-oil exports. This might include initiatives that encourage non-oil exports or aid in diversifying the economy away from natural resources.

The role of trade openness and labour productivity on mineral rents: evidence from East Asian countries

ABSTRACT This study examined the sustainability of East Asian countries’ extended reliance on mineral resource exports and foreign investment inflows for economic growth. By analysing panel data from 11 East Asian nations from 2000 to 2020, the research examined the impacts of trade openness and labour productivity on mineral resource rents. The findings showed that increasing trade liberalization and improving labour productivity negatively impact mineral rents. The research suggests that optimizing trade, productivity, industrial upgrading, and regional partnerships can help East Asian nations diversify their economies, move up global value chains, and achieve high-quality, long-term growth.

Becoming Visible

Systematic entomology as the study and ordering of insect biodiversity is a material-based practice that relies on insect bodies as a resource. Especially large amounts of insect specimens were collected and traded globally in the decades surrounding the turn of the twentieth century, often relying on colonial infrastructures. Taking colonial-era Taiwan as a case study, this paper asks under which circumstances specific places became collecting sites. It takes a series of articles on the insect fauna of the island as a point of departure, titled H. Sauter’s Formosa-Ausbeute after the German naturalist who sent the specimens around the world in the early twentieth century. It explores how collecting specimens was entangled with colonial infrastructure projects, insect policies, and forest-based industries. After Taiwan became a Japanese colony in 1895, newly constructed railways, including push car lines and logging trains, gave naturalists access to inner frontiers. Conversely, insects moved into the spotlight by disrupting these same infrastructures. A rush into the mountains was brought on by the island’s abundance in old growth forests, as evergreen trees such as camphor laurels became valuable export resources. The location of insect collecting sites was determined not just by ecological factors but by forest-based industries and colonial policies as well. As ancient trees were felled and aboriginal peoples violently displaced, insect collectors followed colonial infrastructures into the mountains, resulting in what a German entomologist called the “mass fabrication” of articles about Taiwan’s insect fauna.

Disturbing Effects of Global Oil Price Changes: Case of Azerbaijan

General topic in this paper is the role of oil industry in global economy and the result of changing oil prices on economic variables in Azerbaijan. The major aim is to analyze the effects of crude oil price changes on Azerbaijan economy in order to measure how changes in oil prices affect its basic economic variables. At the beginning, a general outlook on oil industry will be given and the main oil exporting economies will be analized. However, main focus will be on the structure of Azerbaijan’s economy and it will examine the example of Azerbaijan as a transition economy where oil and gas production and exports have steadily increased from the mid ‘90s. Many critical oil and gas extraction projects have been implemented; while the oil and gas sector's dominance in the economy poses a number of threats to the balanced development of the country's economy. It will show how the economy of Azerbaijan was affected after the oil crisis, such as other developing countries that mainly depending on oil and petroleum products. For this purpose, VEC Model has been applied, consdering Azerbaijan Statistic Data and analized the effects of oil price fluctuations on its economic variables parallel with the oil industry. The main findings indicate that Azerbaijan's economy is strongly dependent on resource exports, which produce high growth rates when commodity prices are favorable, but end up with lower macroeconomic performance when global oil prices fall. It is clear that the main income of Azerbaijan comes from oil and oil products, so the export of oil will have a high impact on the saving level of the population. At the time of high revenues come from export and the low exchange rate of the foreign currency in Azerbaijan has also led to the low cost of imported goods. As well demonstrated in the research, Azerbaijan economy has been widely exposed to major crude oil price distortions. It can be said that in order to avoid increasing overdependence on oil earnings, diversifying the economy should be a top priority.

Socioeconomic and political settings for the land development decreasing urban green. Inside view from Moscow

The analysis shows the impact of socioeconomic factors and civil freedom on allocating green areas for investments. The research was conducted for the period 1992–2020 using the example of Moscow as the metropolis in a country with a robust centralized political system. Quantitative research methods included recognizing changes in land use, selected socioeconomic parameters, and indicators measuring the power of civil society. Calculated correlations and modeling of the collected data were used to identify Russia's revenue for petroleum and Moscow's budget revenue as predictors for losing green areas. Among the social activity indicators, the Press Freedom indicator was the best correlated and used for modeling. The analysis of the decision-making procedure for land development and the reconstruction of the case Krylatskie Kholmy allowed gaining insight into actual mechanisms leading to investment in urban green areas. The outcomes that were reachedexpress that investing in bare soils is of the most significant importance; however, the dynamics of change decreased in the analyzed period. The modeling showed that growing Russia's revenue for petroleum increases the likelihood of greenfield investment. The legal nature-protection status brings the most significant effect of preventing land development. The likelihood of land development decreases with the growth of Moscow's budget revenue. It indicates the support for the redevelopment of abounded land located within the range of the existing infrastructure. The modeling of the dependence between the Press Freedom index and land development probability demonstrates the possible effectiveness of public opinion pressure to protect natural and semi-natural areas within the urban fabric. The described decision-making mechanism for land development made it possible to assess that the role of civil society in the decision-making process is insufficient, given the converging interests of investors and administration. The results show that in highly centralized countries with a marginal role of civil society, the concentration of capital from the export of strategic natural resources is the key factor of urban green losses. These findings contribute to understanding differences in urban spatial policy approaches to green areas and their effectiveness.