Export Volume Research Articles

How to measure and manage country reputation

Countries benefit from a good reputation in terms of gaining a higher foreign direct investment inflow, a growing export volume, becoming more attractive as tourist destinations and, last but not least, by improving their populations’ well-being. Consequently, many countries endeavor to manage their public perception actively. Since communication influences perception, advertising plays a particularly important role in the latter. However, countries need to fathom which opinions they need to encourage in order to ensure others’ optimal perceptions of them. A prerequisite for tackling this challenge is a model that measures and explains country reputation. This study develops such a model. Our model conceptualizes reputation as a two-dimensional attitudinal construct, thereby avoiding one-dimensional approaches’ shortcomings. It refers to the cognition-related dimension as competence, whereas the affect-related dimension is termed likability. It measures reputation, as perceived by stakeholders, by means of six reflective indicators. Furthermore, the model employs a catalogue of 30 formative indicators — structured by means of five key constructs — to identify the drivers of country reputation. By cultivating impactful drivers, countries are able to apply targeted measures to alter their reputations’ ratings on the two dimensions (i.e. competence and likability). We employed data from Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom to develop our model. Relevant criteria highlight the model’s reliability and validity. A benchmark analysis of the proposed model compared to that of existing approaches illustrates its superiority in terms of its convergent and criterion validity.

Forecasting the export competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in major importing countries usingautoregressive integrated moving average modeling

The study analyzes the export competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in international markets using the ARIMA model to forecast export trends. The objective is to identify factors influencing the sector's profitability and sustainability. Time series of export volumes and prices were evaluated, revealing that the ARIMA model allows for accurate predictions of future trends. The results suggest that the Peruvian coffee sector faces challenges related to international price fluctuations and global competition. Emphasis is placed on the importance of efficiency in production and export processes to maintain and enhance the competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in the global market.

Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Produk Domestik Bruto terhadap Ekspor Karet Indonesia Periode 2015 sampai dengan 2022

This study aims to analyze the influence of exchange rate, inflation rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on Indonesian rubber exports during the period of 2015-2022. The objective of this research is to understand the dynamics of economic factors affecting Indonesian rubber exports and their potential contribution to the national economy. A quantitative research method was employed, utilizing regression analysis to test hypotheses regarding the relationship between the aforementioned variables. Data were obtained from official sources such as Bank Indonesia and the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS), encompassing exchange rates, inflation rates, GDP, and rubber export data. The analysis indicates that the exchange rate does not significantly influence Indonesian rubber exports. However, the inflation rate exhibits a significant positive impact on rubber export volume, while GDP growth shows a positive but insignificant influence. Simultaneously, exchange rates, inflation rates, and GDP collectively demonstrate a significant impact on rubber exports. This study underscores the importance of considering the economic factors examined in designing policies and strategies to enhance rubber exports in Indonesia. With a deeper understanding of these factors, it is hoped that better guidance can be provided for economic development in the rubber sector and, consequently, for the national economy.

국제표준이 최저개발국의 수출에 미치는 영향: 기술수준의 매개효과를 고려하여

While previous studies have analyzed the impact of standards on trade between regions and countries, there has been limited research on how international standards affect the overall exports of countries that do not actively participate in international standardization. This study aims to investigate the impact of ISO international standards on the exports of countries that do not actively participate in international standardization, and to examine whether the technological level of a country serves as a mediating variable in this process. Through this, the study seeks to verify whether ISO achieves its goal of harmonizing global standards to promote trade. For the analysis, a regression analysis was conducted using the export volume of least developed countries (LDCs) as the dependent variable and ISO international standards as the independent variable, with the technological level of each country as a mediating variable. The analysis results indicated that ISO international standards positively influence the exports of LDCs, and the technological level fully mediates the process through which international standards affect exports. Unlike previous studies, this research focuses on the impact of international standards on the exports of LDCs rather than developed countries, and holds significance as an initial study exploring the mediating role of variables in this process.

Logical and Situational Analysis of the Possibilities of Innovative Development of the Agroindustrial Sector

The author has identified a low level of innovative development of the agroindustrial complex and the reasons for the delay in its growth in comparison with other industries and types of economic activity in Russia. The consequence is a noticeable trend of changes in the positive dynamics of economic efficiency indicators of agricultural production in the recent past. This trend indicates weakening Russia’s food security. The article considers one of the possible options for import substitution of innovative means of production used in the agroindustrial sector in the conditions of external economic isolation of the country. It implies the participation of the state in supporting the development and assimilation of knowledge embodied in the real economy as well as in the financing of national innovative solutions. The option under consideration has the following features: selection on a competitive basis and priority financing of means of production with a high technological potential, which are most in demand among agroindustrial enterprises; reimbursement of payment for information on the state of the markets for technology, means of production, resources, food, raw materials provided by IT specialists, as well as for making calculations to optimize the structure and volumes of production, product exports and technological training to enterprises. This kind of financial support is provided in addition to the current practice of state compensation for losses to low-profit agricultural businesses. An experimental scheme for making decisions on priority financing of innovations is examined. The creators of these innovations are economic entities with the highest indicators of production activities and a high probability of fulfilling an order for the output of innovative products. The list of indicators includes many quantitative and qualitative characteristics. This means that the problem is classified as one that can be solved by using algorithms of multiple criteria modeling.

Export of agricultural products as a determinant of currency security of Ukrainian economy

Purpose. The purpose of this study is the development of the methodological approach for estimation the impact of agri-food exports on the monetary sphere of Ukraine in order to substantiate the prospective directions of the export potential of agricultural products as the factor in ensuring the currency security of Ukraine. Methodology / approach. The following methods were used: literature review in determining the main trends in the export of agricultural products based on the analysis of publications; economic and statistical analysis to assess the impact of key factors on the formation of the export potential of agricultural products and its impact on exchange rate formation; ARDL modelling, Dickey-Fuller, and Engle-Granger tests to estimate the impact of different factors on exchange rate changes. Results. The paper highlights the immediate and delayed influence of selected factors on the dynamics of the exchange rate in Ukraine, showing that the export of food products and raw materials for their production can significantly strengthen the national currency in the long-run. The continuous growth in food exports contributes to a slower appreciation of the exchange rate, which ultimately leads to a stronger national currency. Therefore, the strategy of focusing on increasing food exports can play a vital role in bolstering the Ukrainian currency in the long-run by exerting a positive influence on the exchange rate dynamics and contributing to the overall economic stability. Originality / scientific novelty. The study contributes to the understanding of the complex interplay between war, food security, and economic stability. The novelty implies the ARDL model of the influence of agricultural exports on the currency and exchange rate sphere of the Ukrainian economy. Additionally, the analysis adds new dimension to the discussion on the strategic importance of the agricultural sector for foreign exchange reserves and currency accumulation. Practical value / implications. The practical value is that understanding the relationship between export volumes, global prices, and exchange rate movements can help in predicting and managing currency fluctuations more effectively. By identifying the time frames for the return of exchange rate shocks to their long-term equilibrium and the impact of various factors on currency valuation, the study aims policy-making processes at ensuring currency security for the state.

Multifaceted impacts of R&D activities on exporting behavior

ABSTRACT This study uses data from China to investigate the multidimensional impacts of R&D activities on a firm’s exporting behaviour. The findings confirm the well-documented positive effects of innovations on export participation and export volumes while also uncovering additional aspects of innovation’s influence on exporting. Specifically, firms that engage in research activities charge lower prices, offer a wider variety of exported products, enter more international markets, and demonstrate a tendency to expand into smaller and less affluent export markets. These findings offer cohesive and unified support for the effects of innovation on export that align with the implications of heterogeneous-firm trade models.

Contribution of road transport infrastructure in mitigating the inward–immiserizing growth in Cameroon: An externality approach in computable general equilibrium analysis

The issue of immiserizing growth has been largely discussed in the literature since 1958. It describes a country context contending with high volume of exports relatively to its imports on the international market that benefits from high economic growth but losses in households’ welfare. This study aims to investigate the contribution of transport infrastructure to tackle immiserizing growth in developing countries, focusing on the Cameroon economy, a contending with a significant lack in the development of road transport infrastructure. Further, the study enriches the debate on the wider economic impacts, closely related to immiserizing growth. The loss of welfare is observed upstream to the investigations, as a response to the application of two types of fiscal policies: the import tariff and the capital income tax. Through a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the effect of road transport infrastructure is explored, using the externalities approach. This is an innovative methodology recently applied to access the economic impacts of infrastructure investment making a difference between productive and non-productive infrastructure investments. The findings reveal that productive transport infrastructure not only reduces the wider economic impact by improving households’ welfare but also enhances economic growth. A 10 percent increase in road transport infrastructure investment funded by import tariff leads to a welfare improvement of 1.94% and 1.66% in both short and long terms compared to respective losses of 0.58% and 0.15% if the generated financial funds are allocated in non-productive infrastructure such as monuments, defense etc. The similar tendency is observed for the capital income tax funding. Thus, policymakers are recommended to accentuate the road construction, in order to shorten the complex interplay between public decisions and households’ living conditions.

Export Dynamics and Performance of Tree Seeds in Tanzania: An Analytical Study of Tanzania Forest Services Agency

Purpose: This study investigates the determinants of export performance for tree seeds by the Tanzania Forest Services (TFS) through an analytical framework grounded in the Resource-Based View (RBV) theory. It aims to identify and analyze the influence of Foreign Market Characteristics (FMC), Export Competence (EC), and Business Environment (BE) on the export performance of tree seeds in Tanzania. Design/Methodology: The study adopted a longitudinal research design to analyze the export dynamics and performance of tree seeds in Tanzania over 14 years, from 2003 to 2016. Data was collected from TFS over 14 years, covering export volumes and values. The analysis examines the effects of FMC, EC, and BE on tree seed export performance. Findings: The findings indicate that FMC, EC, and BE significantly affect export performance. Foreign market characteristics enhance export performance by improving market demand and accessibility. Export competence contributes to success through superior production quality and logistics. A supportive business environment facilitates exports by reducing trade barriers and improving infrastructure. Thus, these insights suggest the need to foster internal competencies, improve export strategies, and enhance regulatory and economic frameworks to boost the export potential of tree seeds from Tanzania. Originality/Value: This study offers new insights into how internal capabilities and external market conditions jointly influence the export performance of tree seeds. It bridges theoretical frameworks with practical implications for TFS. The study provides actionable recommendations for policymakers to improve export strategies, optimize market access, and strengthen business conditions, thereby advancing Tanzania’s position in the global tree seed market.

Analysis of Swallow Nest Nitrite Levels and Export Volume Projections: A Statistical Approach to Quality Improvement and Global Market Development

The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is impacting public health and living systems. Edible Bird's Nest (EBN), one of the variants of Swallow's Nest (SBW), is recognized as a medicinal food. The potential of SBW as a therapeutic agent is gaining attention due to its ability to inhibit viral hemagglutination activity. This study provides information on the prediction of SBW demand in the coming year so that it can contribute to determining Indonesia's SBW export performance. Net weight data (tons) of SBW export time series were obtained for 10 years from 2012 to 2022 in 10 countries, namely: Hong Kong, China, Singapore, USA, Vietnam, Canada, Taiwan, Thailand, Japan, and Cambodia, combined with laboratory examination on nitrite levels conducted at the Surabaya Agricultural Quarantine Center, Indonesia. This study shows the minimum limit on nitrite levels in SBW exports and the need for SBW exports in the next four years. One of the requirements for SBW exports is the minimum limit of nitrite levels. The ARIMA method has been implemented to forecast SBW export demand in 10 countries for the next four years. SBW export demand in the next four years is expected to decline. The findings make a significant contribution as a source of information for decision-makers involved in SBW export activities.

UKRAINE AND REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA IN COOPERATION WITH THE EU AFTER 2014 YEAR: MODELS AND IMPACTS

Abstract. The paper is devoted to solving the problem of co-integration between Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova in the context of foreign trade. The study of co-integration makes it possible to determine common trends in the development of foreign trade and, based on the analysis of the dynamics of the development of one country, to forecast the development of foreign trade in another country. The study of the main indicators of foreign trade was carried out: volumes of exports, imports, trade balance. The share of export-import operations with the EU in the total volume of foreign trade of Ukraine and Moldova was chosen as the studied indicator. The article proposes to consider cointegrations both between long-term trends, which characterize the trend of foreign trade development, and between short-term trends, which reflect the cyclical component. A co-integration research mechanism has been developed, which includes three blocks: a block of analysis of literary sources, a block of mathematical tools, and a block of applied use. The use of decomposition models, trend models, spectral analysis, orthogonality indicators and pairwise correlations is proposed as a mathematical toolkit. Using the Foster-Stewart method, an analysis of the presence of a trend in the variance and average was carried out. The above calculations showed the presence of a trend and cyclical component, which allowed the use of additive decomposition models. For the study of long-term trends, a linear trend model was chosen for both Moldova and Ukraine. A spectral analysis of the cyclic component was carried out, which made it possible to identify five main harmonics with a unique frequency and amplitude. The combination of these harmonics caused 95.8% and 90.4% of the cyclical component for Moldova and Ukraine, respectively. An analysis of cointegration between short-term and long-term trend functions was conducted, which revealed medium cointegration in the long-term trend and high cointegration in the short-term trend. The cointegration analysis of the indicator values proved a high degree of cointegration for both long-term and short-term trends.

Trading in Turbulent Times: Unravelling the Interplay between Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitics in Russian Mineral Resource Supply

Trade policy plays a pivotal role in shaping import and export volumes within the global economy. However, the escalation of geopolitical tensions has posed significant challenges to the smooth flow of mineral resource trade. This study aims to analyse the consequences of global trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and various measures of geopolitical risk (GPR), including terror threats, war threats and nuclear threats (NCT), on Russian mineral exports (MEX). The analysis covers the period from January 2013 to December 2021. By employing sophisticated quantile regression methodologies, such as the cross-quantilogram (CQ) and cross-spectral quantile coherency (CQC) techniques, this study uncovers a compelling interaction between TPU and Russian MEX across different market conditions. Interestingly, TPU exerts a significantly positive impact on the export volumes of Russian mineral resources. In contrast, the presence of GPRs, particularly warfare and terrorism, proves to be detrimental to MEX during bullish market phases across various memory horizons. Surprisingly, NCT stimulates mineral trade during bearish market conditions, both in monthly and annual timeframes. These findings remain robust and consistent even when the CQC technique is employed. In light of these pressing geopolitical challenges, this study underscores the importance of developing sustainable mineral trade policies that foster enhanced global cohesion. It is crucial to address these challenges effectively to ensure the smooth and efficient flow of mineral resources in the international trade landscape. JEL Codes: C22, F13, F14, P28, Q21, Q27

THE REGRESSION MODEL CONSTRUCTION OF THE ROAD CARGO TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IN THE UKRAINE – POLAND DIRECTION

In 2023, exports between Ukraine and other countries underwent significant changes. Thus, Poland took first place in terms of the volume of exports from Ukraine in 2023 (more than 5.6 billion dollars or 15.4%). Instead, China, which was the No. 1 consumer of Ukrainian goods, fell to the 4th place in the ranking of top exporters during the war. Its share in total exports of Ukraine halved - from 11.8% to 5.3%. The use of time slot technology is a modern technology for increasing the efficiency of cargo transportation in international traffic. The essence of the technology of time intervals is that the working time of the terminal is divided into time segments. During these time slots, terminal clients place their service requests. During the reserved time slot, the client's car must enter the territory of the terminal for service. The introduction of time slot technology aims to provide the client with the possibility of guaranteed arrival of cars in a certain time interval, preventing crowding, long waiting and queue formation. On the basis of the developed experimental plan, painted according to the determined maximum and minimum values of the arguments, the linear influence of factors on the time of cargo transportation was considered. The R-squared coefficient is one of the most effective estimates of the adequacy of the regression model. In the case of a linear model without an independent variable, the R2 coefficient = 0.999, in the case of a linear model with an independent variable, R2 = 0.987, which means that the linear model without an independent variable is more accurate. The obtained results indicate a more rational use of a linear model without an independent variable for determining the time of cargo transportation in the direction of Ukraine - Poland. As a result of the conducted experiment, it was established that there is a functional relationship between the inputs of the cargo transportation system in the Ukraine-Poland direction and the outputs. Keywords: experiment, international transportation, transportation time.

Последствия распространения коронавируса COVID-19 и новых штаммов для развития агропромышленного комплекса и потребительского рынка

The COVID-19 pandemic has become an example of the implementation of global biological threats, which are positioned as challenges to the economy, including the agricultural sector. The subject of the study was changes in food production and in the consumer market for agricultural products amid the consequences of the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus and potentially dangerous new strains. Since the volume and structure of agricultural exports can serve as indicators of overcoming the challenge to the agro-industrial complex from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, including in conjunction with the influence of the sanctions policies of Western countries, the object of the study was changes in the main indicators of exports of the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation at the federal and regional levels for first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. Changes in the main indicators of exports of agricultural products were studied both at the federal and regional levels, using the example of agricultural enterprises in the Voronezh region, for the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. As a background for studying the subject field of indicators for overcoming the challenge to the agro-industrial sector from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, changes in the field of food production and in the consumer market for agricultural products were identified and studied. An overview of the main exporting companies in the Voronezh region is presented for the following types of products: grains (wheat, corn, barley); meat and dairy products (pork and pork by-products, beef, butter); products of the oil and fat industry (sunflower oil, cakes, mustard oil). The priority trend for the Russian Federation is the development of deep processing of crop products, in particular grain crops. The basis is the trend of growing consumer demand for food products of plant origin, including those that imitate traditional meat and dairy products. A trend has been noted for the production and consumption of organic products, the implementation of which will contribute to the growth of the competitiveness of domestic agricultural products in the domestic and foreign markets. An important factor in increasing the competitiveness of domestic food in the global and domestic markets is the expansion of production of organic crop and livestock products based on a single unified database of agricultural land that meets the legally established requirements for this category of products.

Improvement of the Chemical Quality of Cachaça

The objective of this study was to determine the chemical composition of sugarcane spirits and commercial Cachaças, comparing them with the limits established by national legislation and with studies conducted in previous periods. Previous studies have shown that 50% of the samples of this distillate were above the contaminant limits allowed by national legislation, constituting one of the main factors responsible for the low volume of exports. In this research, 531 Cachaça samples were analyzed in order to verify whether they complied with the limits of contaminants and volatile compounds required by Brazilian legislation. The results obtained indicate that Brazilian producers have adapted to the use of good manufacturing practices during the production process, ensuring the standardization of this distilled beverage and consequent compliance with legislation.

Export demand patterns for blue swimming crab from Indonesia to United States : impact of fishing seasons in FMA 712 (2018 to 2022)

Abstract Blue swimming crab (Portunus pelagicus) is a significant fishery export commodity from Indonesia, especially the fisheries management area (FMA) 712. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between export demand and fishing season in FMA 712 during the last five years (2018–2022) based on export volume, prices, and fishing season information. Fishing season in Indonesia was classified as the west season with high rainfall (November to May) and the east season with low rainfall (June to October). The data were analyzed by correlation and trend analysis. The results showed that the export demand for blue swimming crab fluctuated with the fishing season. Demand for blue swimming crab tends to increase in the west season due to abundant supply from a favorable fishing season, leading to decreased prices due to international market competition. Conversely, demand for blue swimming crabs declines in the east season due to reduced supply from an unfavorable fishing season, resulting in increased prices due to limited availability. To address fluctuations, market diversification, product quality improvement, and sustainable fishery resource management are essential to balance profitable exports and marine preservation. Other variables that may influence export demand, such as global economic and political factors, were not included in this analysis.

The Impact of Export Subsidies on the Volume and Price of Export: the case of agricultural products using difference-in-differences

The Impact of Export Subsidies on the Volume and Price of Export: the case of agricultural products using difference-in-differences

Social media influence on the promotion of sustainable fisheries management: Insight from Indonesian blue swimming crab

Abstract Blue swimming crab is one of potential fisheries commodities in Indonesia that has been mainly exported to America. Crab industry contributed to national economy due to high export volume and value. The use of social media has surged due to digitalization, becoming a crucial marketing strategy for maximizing business profits. The role of social media in non-profit organizations for fisheries sustainability campaigns remains unexplored. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze to the role of social media in promoting sustainable blue swimming crab fisheries programs in Indonesia. Data was collected for 14 days from 31 social media users on various platforms, such as Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn, and YouTube. SmartPLS 3.2.9 was applied to analyze the effect of recall, recognition, alternative, and recalling on blue swimming crabs fishery programs on interaction and effectiveness consumer brand engagement (CBE). Results showed that the most recognized fisheries sustainability programs for blue swimming crabs were crab apartment and GTK-5 Minutes. Meanwhile, the crab enlargement program and APRI Youth Innovation were known through moment-open recruitment. Knowing and following APRI’s social media has significant effect on CBE’s interaction and effectiveness. Social media could also be used as a marketing strategy to promote sustainable fisheries management programs The research reveals the significance of social media in fostering consumer engagement and promoting sustainable practices in fisheries management programs by non-profit organization through effective marketing strategies.

The Influence of Production Quantity, World Cocoa Prices, and Exchange Rates on Indonesian Cocoa Export Volume for the 2008-2023 Period

The Influence of Production Quantity, World Cocoa Prices, and Exchange Rates on Indonesian Cocoa Export Volume for the 2008-2023 Period

A Structural Equation Modelling Approach in Assessing the Sustainability of Indonesian Smallholder Oil Palm Farming

Oil palm plantations (Elaeis guineensis Jacq) in Indonesia have been considered as a leading sector to increase the country's economic growth, create jobs, and improve the distribution of people's income The production of oil palm fruit commodities in 2019 reached a total of 51,443,315 tonnes (Director General of Plantations, 2020). Its export volume in 2019 was 29,135,179 tonnes, equivalent to US$ 20,802,708,000. Oil palm crop production in Indonesia is managed by three groups: state-owned plantation companies, private plantation companies, and smallholder plantations. Oil palm plantation areas spanned 14,677,560 hectares in 2019, 41% of which were community-based plantations. These areas produced 14,846,112 tonnes of palm oil in the same year, accounting for 16% of the national palm oil crop production volume (Directorate General of Plantations, 2020). The development of oil palm plantation areas has made a major contribution to the country's foreign exchange reserves, added to local revenue, encouraged the acceleration of economic development, and encouraged poverty alleviation in rural areas. This study aims to analyse the economic, social, environmental, institutional, and technological influences on the sustainability of independent oil palm farms in Sintang District. The research method used is the Structural Equation Model (SEM) operated through the AMOS programme. While the tools used in this study using a questionnaire with 216 respondents. From a total population of 491 respondents. The findings of this study indicate that the C.R value of the economic dimension is 4.026, social is 2.920, environmental is 3.237, institutional is 3.247, and technology is 2.694. This shows that there is a positive and significant relationship between the dimensions of the sustainability of independent oil palm farming.