Export Volume Research Articles

Dampak Hubungan Bilateral Indonesia dengan Jepang Sebelum dan Sesudah Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA)

his study aims to determine whether or not there is a difference in the volume of Indonesian exports to Japan, Indonesian imports from Japan, Indonesian foreign investment from Japan and exchange rates before and after IJEPA. This study uses secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency and the Investment Coordinating Board with a period of 9 years before and after IJEPA starting in 2000 - 2017 with a paired sample t-test analysis (paired t test). The results showed that there was no significant difference between Indonesian exports to Japan before and after IJEPA and there were significant differences between Indonesian imports from Japan, Indonesian foreign investment from Japan and the exchange rate before and after IJEPA.

Analisis Faktor Penentu Ekspor Kopi di Indonesia

International trade includes export and import activities that take place globally between countries. Export is the act of selling goods abroad to generate more foreign exchange for a country. When a country has excess income, it can engage in export-related activities. Indonesia is the fourth largest coffee producer in the world, and is an important contributor to the country's economy. Indonesian coffee is also one of the most popular in the world, and is one of Indonesia's main agricultural export commodities, besides oil and gas. This study aims to see if there is a significant impact through production variables, land area, exchange rates, inflation, prices, consumption on the volume of coffee exports. For this study, the data collection used is secondary data, where secondary data is obtained through the central statistics agency and BI. The data analysis method is used to calculate all data that has been obtained using multiple linear regression analysis with the help of SPSS. The results of this study are that simultaneously production, land area, exchange rates, prices, consumption affect the volume of Indonesian coffee exports. While the inflation variable does not affect exports in Indonesia.

Forecasting and unveiling the impeded factors of total export of Bangladesh using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag and machine learning algorithms

Rising global oil prices are a major challenge for an emerging oil-importing nation such as Bangladesh. The majority of prior research on the economic effects of an oil price shock has concentrated on developed countries, with emerging economies receiving comparatively less attention. Bangladesh is vulnerable to price shocks due to its rising oil consumption over the past decade. This study aims to investigate how changes in oil prices would affect Bangladesh's total export earnings and to forecast the overall export volume. This study utilized a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to account for the asymmetric behavior of oil prices from 1991 to 2021. To assess the accuracy of predictions, the study employed the Prophet forecasting model and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. Additionally, the symmetry test revealed a nonlinear relationship between export volume and oil price but a linear relationship between inflation and export volume. According to the NARDL assessment, both positive and negative oil shocks increase export earnings over the long run. The short run summary clarifies that both positive and negative changes in oil prices exert a significant negative effect on exports. Also, Inflation influences export earnings negatively in the short run but positively over the long term. Moreover, using machine learning methods, it was found that the LSTM method outperforms the prophet model in prediction performance with a low root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.88. Also, the analysis revealed policymakers that the export sector requires diversification to reduce its exposure to oil price shocks.

Discouraged exporters, regional resilience and the “Slow Burn” shock of Brexit: Unpacking the trade-related consequences for UK SMEs

Invoking the concept of regional resilience, this paper investigates how Brexit has affected the exporting behaviour of UK small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The research found only two UK regions, Northern Ireland and London, remained strongly export-oriented by volume and intensity of exports to the EU. Across most other regions we detected strong levels of disengagement from exporting, whereby “discouraged exporters” may experience longer-term productivity “scarring” effects instigated by reduced exposure to EU markets. Resilience to Brexit is shown to be spatially skewed and most robust in regions spatially proximate to, and in closest regulatory alignment with, the EU.

The Impact of Monetary Policy in Achieving Exchange Rate Stability in the Iraqi Economy for The Period (1990 - 2023) an Econometric Study

The exchange rate is a monetary economic indicator that expresses a country's economic performance. The exchange rate is the basic foundation on which the economies of any country in the world are built, whether developed or developing. As a result, most governments seek to implement regulations that ensure the currency exchange rate remains stable. To avoid the radical changes that currencies will endure during another period. The exchange rate also plays a prominent role in monetary policy, due to its use as an intermediate target, or as a tool, or simply as an indicator of the competitiveness of countries through its impact on components of economic growth such as investment, the degree of economic openness, the inflation rate, the narrow money supply, and the volume of exports. And the volume of imports, and foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the primary goal of this study was to try to identify the nature of the exchange rate. As a result, in the first section, we discussed the concept of monetary policy, its most important tools, its most important goals, the exchange rate, and Iraq’s experience in the field of exchange during the period (1990-2023). While the second section was devoted to measuring the impact of monetary policy in achieving stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar using the vector model. correcting the mistake. The study concluded with some recommendations to reduce exchange rate fluctuations.

Analysis of the Russian Market for Artificial Lung Ventilation Units

The medical industry is strategically important for the national economy and healthcare. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the importance of local MedTech capacity and production facilities to meet the needs of the healthcare market. The purpose of the study is to conduct the analysis of the Russian market of artificial lung ventilation devices (ventilators). Materials and methods. The analysis of customs statistics data was carried out by the Ministry of Foreign Economic Activity of the Russian Federation (RF), the Federal Customs Service of Russia (FCS Russia), Federal Tax Service of Russia (FTS Russia), Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Federal Service for Supervision in the Sphere of Health Care (Roszdravnadzor) as well as the Commodity Nomenclature of Foreign Economic Activity (FEACN RF). During the study, statistical methods were used, as well as analysis and synthesis. The author determined the number of ventilator models present on the Russian market, the dynamics of their import and export volumes (during and after the COVID-19 pandemic) in the country context. Results. Up to 200 ventilator models from 87 vendors are represented on the RF market. The volume of imports of ventilators in 2022 amounted to $ 32.0 million (2.2 billion rubles). After a jump in imports during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021, the volume of deliveries fell to 43 million (-23% by 2019), and in 2022 the decline was 25% (-44% by 2019). In 2020, the imports volume of value of ventilators increased 6.5 times. In 2021, the volume of imports and exports immediately fell below the indicators of the pre-crisis period. Deliveries from Germany decreased by 52%, the USA — by 86%, Korea — by 98%, France — by 29%, Slovakia — by 36%, and from Sweden stopped altogether. China has increased the volume of imports, adding 81% by 2021, and Switzerland to 41%. The volume of exports amounted to $ 383 thousand (410 million rubles), including exports to the EAEU countries amounted to $ 88 thousand, exports to non-CIS countries decreased by 95% (from $ 6.7 million to $ 0.3 million in 2021-2022). Conclusion. The results of this study can be applied by Russian ventilator manufacturers to assess the growth potential, as well as by government authorities to set priorities for strategic development by segments of the medical devices market.

Export as a driver of the development of the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation

Relevance. The implementation of the export potential of the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation is largely related to the concentration on priority supply areas, peculiar drivers of growth in the export of agroindustrial complex products. The relevance of the article is based on the identification and assessment of product drivers of export growth (exporting firms) in 2023.The purpose of the study is to analyze the export of agricultural products of the Russian Federation.Objectives. This goal was achieved by solving the following tasks: analyzing the volume of exports of products of the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation within the framework of the National Project "International Cooperation and Export" and the annual minimum permissible effectiveness of export support measures in the agro-industrial complex of the Russian Federation under the FP "Export of agro-industrial complex" in 2021-2023; evaluation of food drivers of export growth (exporting firms) in 2023 wheat, barley, corn, peas, lamb, pork milk powder.Methodology. The work used well-known methods of economic research: systemic analysis, comparison, generalization, interpretation of results and other general scientific methods. In the process of research, the systematization of statistical data, scientific publications of scientists on the topic of the presented work was carried out.Results. The analysis of the export of agricultural products of the Russian Federation was carried out and the assessment of the product drivers of export growth (exporting firms) in 2023 was given: wheat, barley, corn, peas, lamb, pork, milk powder.Conclusions. The main idea of the article is that it is exports that are the key driver of growth in the production of agricultural products of the Russian Federation. An important condition for the development of exports in our country is the opening of new markets, which is happening by 2024, access was obtained to more than 90 countries in 236 types of agricultural products. In addition, the number of enterprises certified for export is growing every year.

"An Integrated Model for Adopting Renewable Energy in IRAQ: A Standard Study for the Period (1992-2023)"

Data related to the study variables were collected for the period from 1992 to 2023, with the sample size reaching 31 observations for each variable. This research aims to review and analyze descriptive data for these multiple variables, which are related to different areas of renewable energy use and electricity consumption in Iraq. This research addresses important variables, including renewable energy, government policies related to it, and the level of public awareness of the subject. In addition, other variables such as electricity consumption, country's population, volume of imports and exports, economic growth, technological innovation, and foreign direct investment flows are analysed. The importance of this research is to understand the trends and factors influencing the field of renewable energy in Iraq, which can contribute to developing effective policies to promote the use of renewable energy and achieve environmental and economic sustainability in the country. Considering the negative impact, the variables EC (electricity consumption), NPG (population) and GP (economic growth) seem to have a negative impact on renewable energy production in the long run. Increased electrical consumption and population and economic growth can lead to increased demand for traditional sources of energy, reducing environmental sustainability and exposing the country to negative consequences in the future. On the other hand, the positive effect of the variables EG (economic growth), FDIF (foreign direct investment inflows), I (imports), PA (exports) and TI (technological innovation) on renewable energy production is shown. Increased investment in renewable energy infrastructure and adoption of clean technology can contribute to achieving environmental sustainability and boosting the economy. Using EViews 12 software, these variables will be analyzed according to available data with the aim of understanding trends, challenges and opportunities related to renewable energy in Iraq.

Pengaruh Produksi Kelapa Sawit, Harga Minyak Kelapa Sawit Dunia, dan Emisi Karbon terhadap Volume Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia

Indonesia is the largest producer and exporter of palm oil in the world. Unfortunately, Indonesian palm oil exports are influenced by various factors, including environmental issues, which ultimately disrupt export benefits. This research aims to analyze the influence of production, world prices, and carbon emissions on the volume of Indonesian palm oil exports. The analytical method used is Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) with simultaneous supply and demand equations for Indonesian palm oil export volumes from 1991-2021. The research results show that the increase in palm oil plantation areas in Indonesia has positively contributed to the increase in world palm oil prices as demand also increases. Furthermore, the increase in world palm oil prices has encouraged Indonesia's exports to world markets. The increase in Indonesian palm oil production has encouraged an increased volume of exports to the world market. However, market appreciation for environmentally friendly palm oil has not contributed positively to the price and increase in palm oil export volume.

Economic assessment of the export potential of the Kyrgyz regions: Methodology for calculating and analysing the rating

The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology for assessing the export potential of the regions of Kyrgyzstan and conduct an analysis aimed at identifying key factors affecting competitiveness and the development of export opportunities. The methodology was based on the analysis of statistical data from official sources such as the websites of government agencies, ministries, statistical agencies, and international organisations to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the assessment of the export potential of the regions of Kyrgyzstan. The results of the study showed that from 2019 to 2023, there was an overall increase in export volumes in the regions of Kyrgyzstan due to successful economic reforms and infrastructure improvements. The greatest achievements are observed in Batken, Jalal-Abad, Talas regions and the city of Bishkek, while Issyk-Kul and Naryn regions need additional measures. The positive dynamics of the gross regional product (GRP) per capita confirms economic growth and an increase in living standards. The implementation of tax reforms and investments in infrastructure creates favourable conditions for exports. In turn, the international experience of countries such as Singapore, Germany, South Korea, Chile, and India demonstrates the effectiveness of investments in infrastructure and support for innovation to increase the competitiveness of the country's regions. The conclusions highlighted the importance of targeted government initiatives and investments for the balanced development of regions and maximising their contribution to the national economy through the effective use of export potential. Special attention was paid to the need to develop regional support programmes that promote the growth of export activity, improve infrastructure, and attract international investors. This, in turn, contributes to reducing economic disparities between regions and ensuring sustainable economic growth of the country in general

ANALYSIS OF EXPORT-LED GROWTH MODEL FOR TÜRKİYE ECONOMY WITH MARKOV REGIME SWITCHING MODEL

Research on the export-led growth model is significant due to the contribution of exports to the development of domestic sectors and its positive impact on national values, especially employment and growth. Therefore, countries prefer the export-led growth model by increasing their export volumes with an outward-oriented policy. When Turkiye's growth figures are analyzed, it is feasible to say that there is a strong connection between exports and economic growth. In this study, within the framework of export-led growth hypotheses, the additive of exports to Turkiye's growth dynamics between 1980 and 2022 is investigated. The aim of the study is to econometrically test the intercourse between exports and GDP in the Turkiye economy. In the analysis, first linear unit root analyses were implemented. Then, the dynamic correlation relationship between exports and GDP was analyzed with DCC-GARCH, and the dynamic regression relationship was performed with the Markov regime switching model. As a consequence of the examines, it was seen that the dynamic correlation indicators and Markov model results were consistent with each other. While it was found that the correlation decreased during the high volatility period, a decrease in the number of regressions was observed according to the Markov model results.

Comparison of head space solid phase micro extraction with conventional and comprehensive gas chromatography mass spectrometry for volatile profiling of Irish whiskey

Whiskey is a traditional distilled product produced on the island of Ireland that is currently experiencing a major expansion in export volume. Different styles of Irish whiskey exist, however only some very limited published information exists on the volatile congener profile of the different styles of Irish whiskey. Such information is potentially indispensable from a quality, flavour and authenticity perspective. As gas chromatography is the established analytical method of choice to identify volatile congeners, this study compared headspace-solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) using conventional gas chromatography single quadrupole mass spectrometry, to HS-SPME and HS-SPME-Arrow using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC×GC) modulated using reverse flow in tandem with time-of-flight mass spectrometry (TOFMS) detection. Six representative Irish whiskey samples were evaluated consisting of new make spirit and mature whiskies representing Single Malts, Pot Stills and Blends. The number of volatile congeners identified in these samples by HS-SPME/HS-SPME Arrow GC×GC-TOFMS was approximately twice that detected by conventional HS-SPME GCMS. In total 145 unique individual volatile congeners, excluding ethanol were identified, with the majority consisting of esters, but also benzenes, alcohols, aldehydes, terpenoids, furans, ketones, alkanes, alkenes, norisoprenoids, acetals, acids, lactones and phenols. The use of HS-SPME Arrow GC×GC-TOFMS significantly enhances the number of volatile congeners that can be identified and therefore provides much more information that can convey insights into product quality, consistency, flavour and also for authentication purposes.

Analyzing and forecasting poultry meat production and export volumes in Thailand: a time series approach

Analyzing and forecasting poultry meat production and export volumes in Thailand: a time series approach

Analysis of the Impact of Export Duty Policy, Total Production of Cocoa Beans, and Imports of Cocoa Beans on Cocoa Butter Exports in Indonesia

The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of export duty policies, the amount of cocoa bean production and imports of cocoa beans on the volume of cocoa butter exports in the short and long term. This research uses a descriptive approach with quantitative methods, the focus is testing theories using number-based analysis and statistical analysis. The data used is a time series from 1993 to 2022. In this research, the model used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The ECM method aims to identify the influence of independent variables on the dependent variable in both the short and long term by focusing on the variables of cocoa butter exports, export duty policies, production quantities and imports of cocoa beans. The analytical tool in this research uses Eviews-12. The conclusion of this research is as follows: Export duty policy (dummy variable) in the long term has a significant positive effect on coca butter exports. The amount of cocoa bean production does not have a significant impact on cocoa butter exports, both in the long and short term. The volume of cocoa bean imports has a significant impact on cocoa butter exports, both in the long and short term.

Analysis of Factors Affecting Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports

The aim of this research is to determine and analyze the short-term and long-term influence of Indonesian natural rubber production variables, international consumption, and international natural rubber prices on Indonesian natural rubber exports. This research was carried out using Time series data for the period 1989-2022 using numerical calculations of research variables using the Error Correction Model (ECM) analysis method assisted by EViews12 software. The population used in this research is information on Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports for 1989-2022. As a result of the analysis and discussion that has been carried out, it can be concluded that: Indonesian Natural Rubber Production has a positive influence in both the long and short term on Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports. International Natural Rubber Consumption in the long term has an insignificant influence with a negative correlation on the volume of Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports. International Natural Rubber Prices in both the long and short term have an insignificant influence with a positive correlation on Indonesian Natural Rubber Exports.

Simulation of the impact of changes in the volume of production and export of products on the food security of the country: on the example of Ukraine

Changes in the production of agricultural products in Ukraine are analyzed. Forecasting of the volume of exports of agricultural products from Ukraine until 2027 was carried out. The following factors were taken into account: projected changes in real GDP in those countries that are the main importers of these products; reduction of cultivated agricultural land caused by military actions; forecasted changes in the population of Ukraine during the forecast period. It was concluded that there are no threats to Ukraine's food security caused by changes in the production and export of agricultural products. The research was based on a forecasting method, which made it possible to take into account retrospective information and a number of internal and external factors affecting the processes of production and export of agricultural products. The sources of information were the data of the International Monetary Fund and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The hypotheses of the study were confirmed, and the results showed that the volume of production of agricultural products will be sufficient to support the population of the country, while maintaining the previous proportion of exports. At the same time, there is a potential for growth of the share of products that Ukraine can export. The forecast volumes of export of Ukrainian agricultural products obtained can serve as a guideline for regulating exports, taking into account the issue of food security in Ukraine.

Evaluating and classifying market alternatives using the CAPMA technique to assess potential export volume: an application for Turkey’s fig exports

PurposeAppropriate target market selection and classification are complex, time-consuming, and strategically important management decisions. The current study proposes and implements a new systematic approach that evaluates and ranks alternative markets’ potential to increase the export volume of Turkey’s fig exports.Design/methodology/approachThe classification approach of potential market alternatives (CAPMA) method, which was developed to evaluate, compare, and classify alternative markets according to their potential, was used in this study. CAPMA, an objective decision-making technique, is based on calculating the classification coefficient and classifying the alternatives into four dimensions, taking this coefficient into consideration. In the current study, 25 alternative markets were analysed on the basis of four evaluation criteria and classified into four dimensions according to their potential to increase export volume.FindingsAccording to the application results, alternative markets with the greatest potential to increase export volume were identified as the United States of America (USA), Netherlands, China, and Spain. The USA has the greatest potential for expansion of export volume. By implementing correct and effective marketing strategies, fig export volume has the potential to reach very high levels.Originality/valueThe study’s results on alternative markets for fig exports were categorized, countries with greater potential to increase export volume were identified, and findings that could contribute to the development of the sector were obtained. The approach proposed in the current research can be used to determine the target market of many other products, especially agricultural products, whose production is concentrated within a specific geography.

Unraveling the impact of energy demand and exports on environment and economy: A case study of South Asian Economies

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 10pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: 'times new roman', times, serif; font-size: 14pt;">This study employs empirical analysis using an econometric model that examines the interdependence among environmental degradation, exports, and economic development with energy use. It also provides an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for selected South Asian economies utilizing time-series data. The findings reveal a long-term, stable equilibrium link between energy demand and pollution. There exists a positive relationship between structural factors and pollution. Moreover, this study constructs a model of exports and pollution from an interdependent perspective. The three perspectives are tested: the scale and structure of energy consumption considering the twin constraints of export-trade and pollution, and the scale of pollution in export-trade constraint. These results show that the increase in energy use leads to higher CO2 emissions amidst export volume. However, in the presence of income, the scale of effect lowers a little. The analysis also supports the presence of Kuznets curve for south-Asian economies. The results imply substantial scope for development in the energy use and pollution structure within South Asia's current export trade process. This development can be attained by regulating energy use and enhancing system efficacy without necessitating changes to the scale effect or structural effect.</span></p>

Efficiency of regional export support measures and their influence on investments

Regions are active participants of foreign economic activity, with their contribution to the total export being significant. Therefore, data analysis of the volume and structure of exports and investments is important for determining the efficiency of support measures and for elaborating a further development strategy. A review of scientific sources demonstrates the role of investment and government support in stimulating exports. This article examines the efficiency of regional export support measures and their correlation with investments. Statistical data on exports, investments, and government support measures from 2012 to 2022 is compared. The research demonstrates the performance of the Irkutsk Region Export Support Center in the following spheres: in supporting exporters in concluding export contracts, in stimulating export activities of small and medium-sized enterprises, in engaging new exporters in foreign economic activities, as well as in promoting export diversification. Data on the increase in the share of nonresource, non-energy goods in the structure of the region exports confirms the efficiency of the undertaken supporting measures. The performance of the Export Support Center indicates its increasing popularity and efficiency. Moreover, the increasing number of exporters and the volume of export contracts demonstrates the positive impact of supporting measures on the export sector development and regional economy competitiveness. After considering the three main drivers of economic performance, i.e., consumer demand, exports, and investment, it can be concluded that the regional authorities use levers of influence over the latter two factors.

UNVEILING THE DYNAMICS OF DOMESTIC PRICES OF CACAO BEANS IN INDONESIA

This study is crucial for understanding the factors affecting cacao bean prices in Indonesia. Cacao is a vital commodity in the country's economy, and fluctuations in its price impact various stakeholders. By analyzing these factors, we can make informed decisions benefiting the government, industry, and cacao farmers. The purpose of this study is to analyze the domestic price of cacao beans in Indonesia. The dependent variable in this study is the domestic price of cacao in Indonesia, while the independent variables are volume of cacao bean exports, volume of cacao bean imports, global price of cacao beans, volume of domestic production of cacao beans, Rupiah to USD exchange rate, the federal reserve rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annual growth rate of Indonesia, and export duties imposed on export of cacao beans. This research design utilizes time series data from 1996 to 2022 to analyze the factors influencing the domestic price of cacao beans in Indonesia. The results of the analysis show that the variables of the volume of cacao bean imports, the global price of cacao beans, Rupiah to USD exchange rate, and dummy variable for export duties imposed on export of cacao beans are significant affecting the domestic price of cacao. While volume of cacao bean exports, the federal reserve rate, volume of domestic production of cacao beans and GDP annual growth rate of Indonesia are not significant. The non-significance of volume of cacao bean exports, the federal reserve rate, volume of domestic production of cacao beans, and GDP annual growth rate could be caused by weak relationships, multicollinearity, data issues, or model specification limitations.