Export Scale Research Articles

Study on the CO2 emissions embodied in the trade of China’s steel industry: based on the input–output model

The impact of trade on the environment and the climate has become a focus of attention. Tending to develop industries with higher added values, developed countries rely on importing high energy consumption goods from developing countries, and however, some CO2 emissions are embodied in the process of import. Currently, the accounting method of the territorial responsibility used to get the international data of greenhouse gas inventories ignores the difference between domestic consumption and export demands. Thus, developing countries bear the responsibility of pollution emissions from the export. The steel industry is an important basic industry of China’s national economy as well as a vital part in the industrial system. With the expansion of trade scale, the impact of the export and import of China’s steel on CO2 emissions is growing. This paper studied the embodied CO2 emissions in the trade of China’s steel from 2005 to 2014, using the input–output model and the trade data of the China’s steel imports and exports. The results indicate that (1) the complete CO2 emissions of China’s steel industry are high. (2) The increase in the export scale makes the embodied CO2 emissions in the trade of China’s steel export increase, and (3) China is a net exporter of CO2 emissions in the steel trade. Especially after 2007, the value of China’s steel exports has been larger than that of China’s steel imports, so China had borne much CO2 emissions responsibility in the trade of China’s steel. Therefore, this paper puts forward that, in the future, the export structure of goods should be optimized into the high-tech products with the high added value, low energy consumption and low carbon emissions, and meanwhile, service industry is promoted to improve technical support to reduce CO2 emissions in the steel industry.

Global structural changes and their implication for territorial CO2 emissions

This paper proposes a comprehensive decomposition method to estimate how changes in domestic economic scale, industrial composition, domestic technology, export scale of intermediate products, export composition of intermediate products, export scale of final products, export composition of final products, import scale of intermediate products, import composition of intermediate products, import scale of final products, import composition of final products, and foreign technology affect the volumes of both territorial CO2 emissions (including emissions induced by producing exports) and extraterritorial CO2 emissions induced by imports. Specifically, the sources of the territorial CO2 emissions of each of 40 nations from 1995 to 2009 were examined using the Environmentally Extended World Input–Output Tables in 2009 prices. Based on the results, the patterns of structural change in the 40 nations can be classified into eight types and it can be seen that domestic industrial structure changes and import structure changes have different roles according to the group types. This study demonstrates the need for global warming countermeasures that consider the differences in the role that each country’s structural changes play in CO2 emissions. We also found that the export composition effect was negligibly small in both the high-income and middle-income group of countries during 1995–2008 and it has not played an important role in climate change.

Regional Transfer of Haze Pollutants Embodied in China’s Foreign Trade and Factors Affecting It: A GMRIO-Based Empirical Analysis

ABSTRACTThe paper estimated the balance of emissions embodied in bilateral trade and the pollution terms of trade between China and six major world economies, including USA, Japan, and others, from 1995 to 2009, and then discussed the factors affecting them using the Structural Decomposition Analysis method. We find that, with the exception of Taiwan, the balances of the haze pollutants emissions embodied in bilateral trades were negative between China and the each of the rest five, and this was mainly resulted from the China export scale effect and intermediate input structural effects. We also find that China has become the “Pollution Refuge” for the economies like USA and Japan.

International standards certification, institutional voids and exports from developing country firms

This paper analyses the impact of International Standards Certification (ISC) on the export participation and the scale of exports of firms based in 89 developing or transition countries. We conceptualise ISC as an endogenous institutional advantage, which bridges institutional voids in the country and helps firms to export. The empirical results show that certified firms are more likely to export, and to export on a larger scale. The impact of ISC runs through two channels: productivity and transaction cost economies. We show that certification plays an important role in bringing down transaction costs in international markets, while also maintaining and raising efficiency. This finding is reinforced by additional evidence, suggesting that ISC matters more for the export participation of domestic firms than for foreign firms and is of greater importance for firms based in countries characterised by severe institutional voids.

Urea contributions to dissolved ‘organic’ nitrogen losses from intensive, fertilised agriculture

While nearly 60% of global nitrogen fertilizer use is in the form of urea, and urea is increasingly implicated in aquatic eutrophication, little is known of the scale or temporal dynamics of urea export from intensive agriculture. Annual paddock urea nitrogen exports in surfacewater runoff were quantified across multiple years from several sugarcane farms across Australia’s Great Barrier Reef catchment area. Study results suggest that runoff of undegraded urea can represent a significant proportion of the total ‘dissolved organic nitrogen’ pool leaving paddocks, and an important form of nitrogenous export from fertilised agricultural land uses. Situations where substantial rainfall or irrigation-driven surfacewater runoff occur within 1–2 weeks of fertiliser application particularly provide scope for major, and in some cases dominant, losses of undegraded urea from paddocks. Fertiliser derived urea can be a significant, bioavailable and anthropogenic form of dissolved ‘organic’ nitrogen export that warrants further attention in many field and catchment scale research applications.

Export Survival in the Russian Economy: The Role of Learning-By-Doing, Export Scale and Entrepreneurial Climate in Regions

In this paper we investigate the impact of business climate and classical gravity variables on trade flows survival from export-oriented non-resource dependent Russian regions. We employ data on electronic copies of cargo custom declarations in 2002–2010 provided by the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation and build the database for the more than 45 000 export flows from of 20 export-oriented Russian regions. We test two types of business climate variables — those reflecting the quality of human and financial resources in a region and those reflecting the quality of administrative regulation and hard infrastructure. We control for uncertainty and time effects and find that the effects of improvements of business climate in a region are falling over time and that they are more important for bigger export values. Thus, there is an evidence of presence of learning curve and scale effects for exporters when the latter become more efficient with time in treating with regional-level resources and regulatory environment.

Driving forces of rapid CO2 emissions growth: A case of Korea

This study aims to investigate Korea's final demand structure and its impacts on CO2 emissions in order to reduce CO2 emissions and develop environmental policy directions. Based on the environmentally extended input–output model, this study adopts a two-step approach: (1) to estimate the embodied emissions and their intensities for 393 sectors induced by final demand; and (2) to calculate the driving factors of emission growth between 2003 and 2011 and then evaluate the result by using Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). The findings of this study demonstrate that the impact of composition change in export with less embodied emission intensities tends to offset the increase in CO2 emission by the export scale growth. The relatively low residential electricity price has resulted in the rapid growth of household electricity consumption and significantly contributed to emissions growth. The result of SDA indicates that Korea's final demand behavior yielded high carbonization over the same period. The findings suggest that Korean government should promote exports in industries with less embedded CO2 in order to protect environments. In addition, emission information of each product and service should be provided for consumers to change their purchase patterns towards contributing to low carbon emissions as active players.

Research on the Factors of Trade Growth between China and India <br/>—An Empirical Analysis Based on Constant Market Share Model

Based on 2000-2011 trade data, this paper decomposes the trade growth factors between China and India by using Constant Market Share model (CMS). The conclusion shows that scale effect is always a major factor; the scale effect of the exports growth from China to India is manifested in the industrial finished or semi-finished products, and the competitive effect of primary products is even more significant; however, the growth of economies of scale of Indian exports to China mainly concentrates on primary products, and the competitive effect is the main factor that is restricting the growth of primary products exports, while the competitive effects of industrial finished products increase export. Adjusting the trade structure in order to meet the changes of import demand is an important means to enhance the competitiveness of export products and expand the scale of bilateral trade development. In addition, China and India Free Trade Agreement strategy should be put on the agenda, and the economic integration mechanism should be actively built.

The Effects of Trade, Domestic Final Demand and Technology on Energy Consumption of China

The rapid growth of China’s economy consumed a lot of energy, but excessive energy consumption may constraint the sustainable development of China. This paper constructs a two-tier structural decomposition analysis model to decompose the change of energy use during 1987 and 2010 into 11 factors, and analyze the results of sub-periods. The results show that the scale and products’ structure of domestic final demand, the scale of exports, imports substitution, the structure and the input technology of material promoted the energy in the whole period. However, the intensity of energy, the products structure of exports , the structure and technology change of energy input reduced the energy consumption.

국내 희유금속 수급구조 분석 연구

본 연구는 35여종의 희유금속을 대상으로 광석(정광), 금속, 화합물, 스크랩 등 4개 유형으로 광종별 원재료를 범주화하고 교역 구조를 분석하였다. 우리나라 희유금속원재료 교역 규모는 점차 확대되어 교역 증가폭이 GDP 증가폭을 큰 폭으로 상회하고 있다. 희유금속 원재료는 실리콘, 니켈, 크롬, 몰리브덴, 망간 등 철강원료자원 위주로 수입이 주로 이루어지고 있으며 전자공업원료자원 중 인듐, 게르마늄 등은 총교역규모 1억불 이하의 작은 규모로 수입추이변화에 미치는 영향은 제한적이나 연간증가율이 20%를 상회하여 지속적인 수급관리가 필요하다. 수입규모는 수출규모의 약 3배이며 희유금속 원재료 수출입 유형은 국내산업구조 및 수요의 특성에 따라 광종별로 다양한 양상을 보이고 있으나 수입, 수출 모두 상당수가 금속형태로 교역이 이루어지고 있다. In this study, the domestic supply & demand of the raw materials of 35 rare metals was analyzed categorized as four types - ores, metals, compounds and scraps. Foreign trade volumes of the raw materials of rare metals have been steadily increased, furthermore, recently trade growth rate highly exceeds GDP. The raw materials of rare metals - silicon, nickel, molybdenum, manganese, etc. - for steel industry were the most big part of the raw materials of rare metals trade, while the raw materials of rare metals for electronics industry were imported relatively small volumes less than $100 million. However systematic supply & demand management on the raw materials of rare metals for electronics industry is needed since recently growth rate per year has been remarkably high over 20%. Import volumes were about three times bigger than export scale, and most of the raw materials of rare metals were traded as a metal form.

Review of mid- and long-term predictions of China's grain security

Purpose – This paper analyzes the factors that potentially affect grain security in China and reviews the techniques used for prediction. It reviews and compares forecasts for grain security in 2020 and 2030 with the aim of making some judgments, from the perspective of grain supply and demand, about the future grain security situation in China. Design/methodology/approach – In this article, the paper will introduce the methods and results of the forecast and also focus on the predictions for grain security in 2020 and 2030 in order to give a clear review of previous researches in this regard. Findings – The results indicate that the traditional threats to food supply and demand in China still exist, while demand for biomass energy continues to rise. With regard to grain aggregate, the grain supply-demand balance will still be relatively tight for both 2020 and 2030. In terms of structure, grain for feed will experience increase – mainly driven by the supply of corn – adding to the unabated structural issues confronting regional grain supply and demand. In the future, therefore, China should try to preserve favorable factors that increase grain production, optimize grain structure and production, maintain the proper scale and make-up of grain imports and exports, and work for a sound global trading environment for grain. Originality/value – This article contributes to existing literature by analyzing the factors affecting grain security in China and reviewing prediction techniques and forecasts for grain security in China in 2020 and 2030. The findings suggest that China needs to take appropriate measures to ensure future grain security.

The Effect of Environmental Regulation of ASEAN on China��s Export Trade

Based on China-ASEAN panel data in period of 1990-2007, this paper uses gravity models to analyze effect of environmental of ASEAN on China's export trade. In paper, we are creatively using energy consumption per capita and carbon dioxide emissions per capita as two proxies to measure stringency of environmental regulation, which reflects economic characteristics of developing countries. According to theory of supply and demand, we propose export scale and export structure as two factors which can affect effect of environmental of trade, after analyzing how foreign environmental affects China's export. Finally, we testify the export scale effect of environmental regulation and the export structure effect of environmental regulation by using empirical results and listed data. That is: 1. China's export is less sensitive to environmental of ASEAN member countries when scale of export is relatively small; 2. China's export is more sensitive to environmental of ASEAN member countries when dirty product covers a greater proportion.

The Analysis of Intra-Industry Trade in Auto Parts Industry in Jiin Province

In recent years, the import and export scale of auto parts industry grows increasingly in Jilin Province. According to the index of intra-industry trade of auto parts, the intra-industry trade level of the Jilin Province’s auto parts is relatively lowly, there are a great of room for development. In order to enhance the level of intra-industry trade, the enterprises should promote the upgrading of the processing trade, improve the quality of imports, take the independent brand and intellectual property rights as the key, to enhance the export competitiveness. The auto parts enterprises must shift gradually to the plurality of supporting activities from the original single production activities.

Carbon leakage in China's manufacturing trade: An empirical analysis based on the carbon embodied in trade

In this paper, we use a 16 manufacturing-sector single-country linked input–output model to calculate the balance of emissions (carbon) embodied in trade (BEET) and pollution terms of trade (PTT) for China's international trade with the entire world and with its principal trade partners (Japan, the US, and the European Union) for the period from 1996–2004. Our results confirm that China is a net carbon exporter, but also reveal that China's exports are relatively less polluting than China's imports: the big carbon surplus embodied in trade is due to China's large scale of exports and its high carbon emission intensity compared to its trade partners. In a second step, we directly study the determinants of the comparative advantage of China's international trade with the purpose of verifying whether the increase of the carbon burden in China is due to the transfer of the comparative advantage of the polluting sectors from Annex I countries to China, according to the hypothesis of ‘carbon leakage’. Our analyses confirm that China's comparative advantages are more concentrated in the less polluting, labor-intensive sectors, although, dynamically speaking, this economy also experienced a tendency of comparative advantage increases in carbon-intensive sectors for its trade with European countries owing to their increase (decrease) of carbon intensity, but not for the trade with the carbon club countries such as the US and Japan. This finding seems to provide a first piece of supportive evidence for the existence of ‘carbon leakage’ phenomenon. Our conclusion also reveals that current international production division is organized with little consideration for the environmental performance of the producers in different countries; this organizational issue might be the principal reason for the current, often-observed BEET surplus in international trade of the non-Annex I country, while the transfer of a comparative advantage in the carbon-intensive sectors plays only a marginal role.

Firm heterogeneity, sunk costs, spatial characteristics and export market participation: Evidence from China

This paper develops a dynamic discrete-choice model to analyze the exporting decisions of Chinese firms in Zhejiang province. The results show that sunk costs are found to be significant and prior export experience, productivity, scale, FDI, export spillovers, coastal area and economic zones are all positively related with the propensity of exporting while state ownership concentration has a negative impact. The export behavior of firms varies with country-specific characteristics.

Global Vertical Specialization Participation and Domestic Technological Growth: the Case of China

Abstract: It remains a challenge to empirically verify whether the large scale of exports as the result of China’s export-oriented growth strategy has transformed into its endogenous technological ...

Impacts of inter-sectoral trade on carbon emissions—a case of China in 2007

With the increase in international trade, more attention has been given to quantifying the impacts of international trade on energy use and carbon emissions. Input-output analysis is a suitable tool for assessing resources or pollutants embodied in trade and it has become a critical tool for performing such analysis. This study estimated the national and sectoral carbon emissions embodied in Chinese international trade using the latest available China input-output table of 2007. The results showed that a significant exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions existed in China’s trade. Over 1/3 of the emissions in Chinese domestic production processes were generated for exports in 2007. The net balance of emissions embodied in exports and imports accounted for nearly 30% of China’s domestic emissions, which means that any policy made to increase the exports would result in a significant growth of China’s domestic emissions. Since over half of China’s export trade is processing trade, the re-exported emissions could not be overlooked; otherwise, it would hard to capture the actual emissions generated abroad to obtain China’s domestic consumption. The enlargement of export scale is a primary driven factor to the rapid growth of China’s exported emissions. It is necessary for China to adjust its economic and industrial structure to reduce the dependence of economic growth on the export trade. However, when adjusting industry structures or making policies on carbon emission reduction, it will be more reasonable to consider the relationship between production and consumption, rather than just focus on the emission values of sectors’ direct production, as a large part of carbon emissions emitted by the principal direct polluters were generated to obtain the products which were required by other sectors.

Energy embodied in the international trade of China: An energy input–output analysis

Growing international trade has not only positively affected the People’s Republic of China’s (China’s) economic development, but also expanded the exportation of energy embodied in goods during their production. This energy flow out will pose risks to China’s rational utilization of natural resources as well as environmental protection. In this paper, we evaluate the energy embodied in goods produced in China during 1992–2005 and use input–output structural decomposition analysis to identify five key factors causing the changes of energy embodied in exports. (Direct primary energy efficiency, primary energy consumption structure, structure of intermediate inputs, structure of exports, and scale of exports.) For the three sub-periods of 1992–1997, 1997–2002, and 2002–2005, results show that China is a net exporter of energy, and the energy embodied in exports tends to increase over time. The expanding total volume of exports and increasing exports of energy-intensive goods tend to enlarge the energy embodied in exports within all three sub-periods, but these driving forces were offset by a considerable improvement of energy efficiency and changes in primary energy consumption structure from 1992 to 2002 and the effects of structure of intermediate input only in the sub-period from 1992 to 1997. From 2002 to 2005, the sharp augmentation of energy embodied in exports was driven by all the five factors. Our research has practical implications for the Chinese economy. Results of this study suggest that the energy embodied in trade should receive special attentions in energy policies design to limit the energy resource out-flow and pollution generation.

Detecting larval export from marine reserves.

Marine reserve theory suggests that where large, productive populations are protected within no-take marine reserves, fished areas outside reserves will benefit through the spillover of larvae produced in the reserves. However, empirical evidence for larval export has been sparse. Here we use a simple idealized coastline model to estimate the expected magnitude and spatial scale of larval export from no-take marine reserves across a range of reserve sizes and larval dispersal scales. Results suggest that, given the magnitude of increased production typically found in marine reserves, benefits from larval export are nearly always large enough to offset increased mortality outside marine reserves due to displaced fishing effort. However, the proportional increase in recruitment at sites outside reserves is typically small, particularly for species with long-distance (on the order of hundreds of kilometers) larval dispersal distances, making it very difficult to detect in field studies. Enhanced recruitment due to export may be detected by sampling several sites at an appropriate range of distances from reserves or at sites downcurrent of reserves in systems with directional dispersal. A review of existing empirical evidence confirms the model's suggestion that detecting export may be difficult without an exceptionally large differential in production, short-distance larval dispersal relative to reserve size, directional dispersal, or a sampling scheme that encompasses a broad range of distances from the reserves.

Quantifying larval export from South African marine reserves

Marine reserves may not only protect populations within their borders but also subsidize harvested populations outside through the spillover of either adults or planktonic larvae. The conser- vation benefits of marine reserves are well documented, and a growing body of evidence suggests that the spillover of large adults from reserves can enhance fisheries for highly mobile species. How- ever, the proposed benefit to fisheries through larval export, a crucial benefit for the many marine species without highly mobile adults, remains controversial. We tested for larval export by estimating larval production and recruitment patterns of a harvested intertidal mussel, Perna perna, inside— and a range of distances outside—3 marine reserves in South Africa. Within the borders of 2 reserves, mussels were more abundant and larger than outside the reserves, with significantly higher expected production. Recruitment was highest inside these reserves and declined exponentially with distance. In the third region, where harvest outside reserve boundaries is carefully managed by community members, no differences in production or recruitment inside versus outside the reserve were found. Where production and recruitment were enhanced, we used the inverse relationship of recruitment with distance from the reserves to determine the spatial scale and magnitude of larval export. Our results suggest that larval export from these reserves enhances recruitment to fished areas within several kilometers. This study supports the idea that increased production in reserves may subsidize fisheries outside their borders, even for species with immobile adults.