Export Prices Research Articles

The role of local currency pricing in the international transmission effects of a government spending shock in an economy with vertical production linkage and foreign direct investment

By constructing a two-country model with asymmetry in price-setting behavior between home and foreign intermediate goods firms, vertical production and trade, and endogenous entry of three types of final goods firms, this paper examines the effects of a home government spending shock. In particular, it focuses on the role of asymmetry in price-setting behavior between home and foreign intermediate goods firms. A home government spending shock is shown to result in the entry of multinational firms from both countries, an increase in the aggregate outputs of both countries, a deterioration in home welfare, and an improvement in foreign welfare. In addition, with an increase in the ratio of home and/or foreign intermediate goods firms setting their export prices in the local currency, the effects of this shock on the entry of home multinational firms, the increase in aggregate foreign output, the deterioration in home welfare and the improvement in foreign welfare are shown to be weakened, while the effects of this shock on the entry of foreign multinational firms and the increase in aggregate home output are intensified.

Does Climate Policy Affect The Price And Volume Of Indonesian Coal Exports?

This study aims to investigate the impact of climate policies, such as the ParisAgreement and its derivatives, the Gasglow climate pact, on the reference coal priceand its effect on the volume of Indonesian coal exports. A qualitative approach,utilizing secondary data from various international level journals, data from theMinistry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the World Bank, and other relevantsources, was employed. The research method utilized literature study. The results ofthis study indicate Climate policies the Paris Agreement, the Glasgow Climate Pact,and benchmark coal price on Indonesia's coal export volume is limited do not have anotable effect the volume of coal exports do not significantly impact the reference.Recommendation for Policy makers should conduct a comprehensive assessment ofcoal export policies, with a particular focus on their alignment with the commitmentsoutlined in the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact. This assessmentshould include an examination of emissions targets and whether or not coal exportsare at odds with them.

The Impact of Participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Agreement and Potential Export Markets for Vietnamese Rice: An Application of Augmented Gravity Model

In this study, we investigate the potential effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement on Vietnam’s rice exports from 2000 to 2016. For this analysis, we employ the panel data augmented gravity model with some modifications. The estimated results suggest a positive relationship between Vietnam’s per capita export and the capita real gross domestic product (GDP) of the importer, Vietnam’s rice production, export price, and ASEAN dummy. We confirm that there is a negative relationship between Vietnam’s per capita rice export value and import country agricultural land and import tariffs. Additionally, this paper forecasts Vietnam’s rice export value per capita at each market in RCEP partners by using the autoregressive model. Our forecast results show that among RCEP members, Vietnam has potential markets if import tariff reductions are lowered in Singapore, Brunei, Korea, Japan, and Malaysia. To reap the benefits of rice exports’ potential, Vietnam must move from low-grade and cheap rice to high-quality rice production instead of expanding rice production and exports with the following implications: changing its present rice trading partners to potential markets and adopting market-oriented policies to meet the international demand and to increase the export elasticity of rice.

Optimal geographical distribution of Saudi dates exports

PurposeThis research aimed to maximize the value of date exports for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.Design/methodology/approachTo achieve its objective, this study relied on secondary data and quantitative economic analysis represented by the Linear programming model.FindingsThis study showed that Saudi Arabia exports dates to the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Kuwait, Turkey, Somalia, Jordan, Oman, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh Morocco, Lebanon, and others. The geographical concentration coefficient for the quantity and value of date exports was 35.05% and 34.74%, respectively, during the study period. Saudi Arabia exported a quantity of dates amounting to 83.08 thousand tons, representing 40.57% of the average total amount of Saudi dates exports during the study period, to Yemen, Somalia, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt, China, Djibouti, Bahrain, and Ethiopia, at prices lower than the average export price of 1200.31 dollars/ton, and therefore the export policy needs to restructure the geographical distribution of date exports. Based on the models of geographical distribution, Saudi date exports value can be increased by 32.76–127.12 million dollars, meaning can be increased by 13.77% – 53.44%. In light of the results of the proposed models, this study recommends the need to restructure the geographical distribution of Saudi date exports so that the value of Saudi date exports can be increased by 127.12 million dollars from the current situation for the period 2017–2021.Originality/valueThe paper’s original contribution lies in its proposal to restructure the geographical distribution of Saudi date exports to increase the value of exports.

Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle

We examine the impact of commodity price changes on the business cycles and capital flows in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), distinguishing between their role as a source of shock and as a channel of transmission of global shocks. Our findings reveal that surges in export prices, triggered by commodity price shocks, boost domestic GDP, an effect further amplified by the endogenous decline of country spreads. However, the effects on capital flows appear muted. Shifts in U.S. monetary policy and global risk appetite drive the global financial cycle in EMDEs. Eased global credit conditions, attributed to looser U.S. monetary policy or lower global risk appetite, lead to a rise in export prices, higher output, a decrease in government borrowing costs, and stimulate greater capital flows. The endogenous response of export prices amplifies the output effects of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy while country spreads magnify the impact of shifts in global risk appetite.

Faktor – Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Lada Indonesia

This study examines the effect of pepper production, household consumption, pepper export prices, and exchange rates on Indonesian pepper exports. The data used uses time series data for the period 1990 to 2019.The results of the study using multiple regression analysis using the OLS (Ordinary Least Square) method show that: (1) pepper production has a positive and significant effect on Indonesian pepper exports, domestic consumption has a negative and significant effect on Indonesian pepper exports, pepper export prices have a positive influence. but not significant to Indonesia's pepper exports, the exchange rate has a negative but not significant effect on Indonesian pepper exports.

Agri‐food trade liberalization, export prices, and quality upgrading: Evidence from the meat and chocolate sectors in OECD countries

AbstractThis article examines the impact of trade liberalization on export prices and quality. The article is innovative in two respects. First, unlike previous studies, it considers both input and output tariffs simultaneously in a theoretical model. Second, it empirically tests the effects of a combination of specific and ad‐valorem tariffs on quality improvement. The theoretical analysis suggests that when firms face reduced output and input tariffs, they tend to improve their export quality and increase export prices. Using export data from 33 OECD countries, the empirical analysis demonstrates that output tariff reduction increases export quality but decreases prices. However, the effects of input tariff reduction on price and quality depend on product differentiation. The results also indicate that the presence of specific tariffs increase product quality while amplifying the positive effects of the reduction of ad‐valorem tariffs on quality. This implies that to improve export quality, reducing ad‐valorem tariffs is more efficient than a specific tariff. [EconLit Citations: F12, F14, Q17].

Increasing the productivity of hunting lands on the base of upgrading the quality of trade furs

A decrease in the productivity of hunting lands is often associated with a drop in the income of hunters who are not informed about the main changes in the requirements of buyers for the quality of fur. This is explained by the lack of up-to-date reliable information among the majority of hunters and game users about the system of modern international sorting of commercial sable, on the basis of which auctions are carried out, export prices are formed, which determine the prospects for the exploitation of such a valuable species. For this reason, the number of fur market subjects who understand the possibilities of increasing profi ts from the sale of sable skins by improving their quality is small. The purpose of the research was to consider the possibilities of increasing the productivity of hunting lands through increasing the level of development of sable resources based on improving the quality of commercial furs. The main natural and anthropogenic factors aff ecting the quality of commercial sable skins have been discussed in the article. The dependence of the auction price of skins on the degree of their defectiveness has been traced. An analysis of the dependence of fur quality on the geographical distribution of the species was carried out. The main defects of anthropogenic origin have been identifi ed, aff ecting the cost and the possibility of improving the quality of the product through additional processing. The economic effi ciency of complex additional processing of raw materials was shown. For example, eliminating fur defects and increasing the size of individual skins contributed to an increase in their selling price at auction by 20–30 %.

Pass‐through to export prices: Evidence from Australia†

AbstractAustralia is a leading exporter of primary and agricultural commodities like iron ore, coal, wool and beef. Industry stakeholders point out that exchange rate fluctuations remain a key determinant of export revenue. This article investigates the exchange rate pass‐through to export prices using the recently proposed impulse responses by the local projections technique. Employing export prices in all destination markets and trade‐weighted exchange rates, there is substantial evidence that 17 SITC industry and sub‐industry level prices experience moderate to high exchange rate pass‐through to export prices. These industry categories include sectors like minerals and natural resources products, which are homogenous in nature, and Australia enjoys a comparative advantage in the export of such goods. However, this competitive edge does not necessarily lead to higher export prices, as currency invoicing plays an important role in determining the extent of the pass‐through effect. Our findings have important policy implications, especially regarding the invoicing currency strategy for exporters selling homogenous items.

Optimal local content requirement under export share requirement consideration

This paper considers a Cournot model with a local content requirement and export share requirement. The analysis investigates the conditions under which the local content requirement may promote an intermediate industry and explores the optimal local content requirement and the key factors that affect it. The results show that while a small local content requirement has a promotion effect when it is first introduced, while if the local content requirement is further increased, the effect will depend on the intermediate industry's production efficiency. Furthermore, the optimal local content requirement should be higher as the domestic market expands or the export price increases. Finally, the export share requirement can be treated as a policy instrument that is supplementary to the local content requirement.

Research on Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of the Impact of Earthquakes on Global Copper Ore Supply Based on Geographically Weighted Regression

The large and super large copper deposits worldwide are mainly distributed in the Pacific Rim and Gondwana metallogenic domains, and they are highly coupled with the spatial location of seismically active zones. Major copper-producing countries such as Chile are located in areas with high seismic activity. Earthquakes often cause copper mines to shut down, copper prices to soar, and even mining disasters, affecting the stable supply of global copper. In order to study the impact of earthquakes on the global copper ore supply, information on resource endowments, production, and earthquake data from the past 30 years are collected. This article mainly analyzes (1) the spatial correlation between earthquakes and copper mine projects, and the spatial characteristics of earthquakes’ impact on copper mine production, using correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR); (2) the impact of sudden earthquake events on the export volume and price of copper mines from the perspective of time, using the earthquake index constructed based on the magnitude of the earthquake, the depth of the epicenter, and the distance from the copper mine. The results indicate that the regions with high spatial correlation between copper mine projects and earthquakes are mainly located along the Pacific coast of South and North Americas. Earthquakes can lead to an increase in copper prices, but they will fall significantly in the short term. The impact of earthquakes on export volume generally has a delay period of 1–2 months, resulting in a short-term decrease in export volume. This article quantitatively evaluates the impact of earthquake risk on the supply chain from both spatial and temporal dimensions, providing reference for supply chain risk monitoring, risk impact assessment, and prediction. On the basis of the research results of this article, mineral resource management departments can quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal impact of natural risks such as earthquakes on the supply chain, adjust management policies in a timely manner, and improve the level of refined management of supply chain risks.

The many channels of firm’s adjustment to energy shocks: evidence from France

Abstract Based on firm-level data in the French manufacturing sector, we find that firms adapt quickly, strongly and through multiple channels to energy shocks, even though electricity and gas bills represent a small share of their total costs. Over the period 1996–2019, faced with an idiosyncratic energy price increase, firms reduce their energy demand, improve their energy efficiency, increase intermediate inputs imports and optimize energy use across plants. Firms are also able to pass-through the cost shock fully into their export prices. Their production, exports and employment fall. A consequence of these multiple adjustment mechanisms is that the fall in profits is either non-significant, small or specific to only the most energy-intensive firms. We also find that the impact of electricity shocks has weakened over time, suggesting that only firms able to adapt their production process to energy cost shocks have survived. Importantly, when faced with large electricity and gas price increases, firms are less able to reduce their consumption. These results shed light on the mechanisms of resilience of the European manufacturing sector in the context of the present energy crisis.

Export Demand of Non-Timber Forest Products: A Case Study of Cinnamon Products in Indonesia

Indonesia is a major cinnamon (Cinnamomum sp.) exporting country in the world. Previous research generally measured the information on competitiveness. To improve performance, export demand behavior should also be known. This study aimed to estimate Indonesia’s cinnamon export demand function. The panel data model was investigated using panel data exports to 11 country destinations from 2010 to 2020. The classical assumption test of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation and the model specification test were conducted. The results show that the export demand function can be represented well by the fixed-effects model, which explains about 96% of its variance. The obtained income and price elasticities were 1.08 and -0.30, indicating normal goods with inelastic export demand. It implies that countries with high-income growth should be prioritized in export expansion, and raising an export price might be a good policy option. Research on global supply chains and price volatility is needed. In addition, this study results in formulating policies related to developing the cinnamon product industry and trade. Keywords: Cinnamomum sp., data regression, demand, export, function panel

Rethinking the balance-of-payments-constrained approach, in the light of the recent commodity boom

We develop a balance-of-payments-constrained growth (BPCG) model to explain the specific conditions of small commodity-dependent countries. Based on Thirlwall’s model and subsequent contributions, we elaborate a new model that assumes exogenous export prices, infinite price elasticity of export demand, and supply of commodities that react to prices with positive, but not infinite, elasticity. We contribute to explaining the central role of export prices and the relevance of price competitiveness in the growth dynamics. It is shown that a real devaluation and an improvement in terms of trade (TT) in a context of increasing international prices increase the equilibrium growth rate. However, export prices are more relevant than import prices in determining the growth of these countries, challenging the traditional interpretation of TT. Moreover, our model enriches the extensive literature which has corroborated that a development strategy based exclusively on increasing production capacity in commodity sectors is doomed to fail.

TREND ANALYSIS OF UGANDA’S COFFEE SECTOR

Coffee (Coffea arabica and C. canephora) is an important commercial crop globally, and the second most traded global commodity by developing nations after oil. Uganda is among the top 10 coffee exporters worldwide, and second in Africa. The total export amounted to 301,366 tons of “green” coffee in 2021, forming the second-largest commodity export, and contributing about 12.4% to Uganda’s total formal exports. However, the country’s overall performance over time remains unclear given the fluctuations in production and export prices. This study aimed to evaluate the production and export trends of Uganda’s coffee sector by: (i) defining the overall direction of coffee production and export value, (ii) assessing the market variability, and (iii) evaluating the global cross-cutting issues regarding coffee production and export. Data was extracted from FAOSTAT and Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) databases. Trends were analysed using the Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Slope test, while market variability was analyzed using the fixed base index (FBI) and coefficient of variation. VOSviewer software was used to analyze literature from the Web of Science database to highlight cross-cutting issues. Results indicated a significant positive increase in coffee production and export value (p = 0.0001, Slope = 1736.67 tons and p = 0.001, Slope = 4.44 million USD) respectively. Among the top ten coffee producers, Uganda presented the third worst unstable coffee export value with a 20.1% coefficient of variation. Fairtrade, climate change, and certification were the most outstanding global cross-cutting issues. Market stabilization mechanisms should be developed through value addition by establishing coffee processing and roasting plants, as well as strategic governance and policy support to counter emerging global challenges such as climate change.

ЕКСПОРТ ЗЕРНА УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ

The article examines and analyzes the changes that have occurred in the grain market of Ukraine, in particular in the process of its export. An analysis of the dynamics of grain and leguminous export volumes for 2010-2023 was carried out, and a structural analysis of grain exports in 2023 was carried out. A study of the geography of grain export was conducted and trends were revealed regarding the provision of Ukrainian grain to the importing countries that need it most. Since February 2022, the Ukrainian grain market has undergone irreversible changes, the impact of which was not only national, but also international. In the first year of the Black Sea Grain Agreement, grain exports through the humanitarian corridor partially resumed, but many importing countries that previously supplied grain to Ukraine did not receive grain on time and sought alternative supplies. It was found that by July 2023, exports of cereals and pulses had returned to 2014 levels. At the same time, the dominant crop was corn, which accounted for more than 50% of the export structure. Corn had to be sold quickly to make room in the granaries for wheat from the summer harvest. The article also emphasizes that the geography of exports changed significantly during the war. In the conditions of limited supplies through Ukrainian seaports, the neighboring countries of Poland and Romania came to the rescue, allowing the transit of Ukrainian grain. Thus, the share of Ukraine in grain exports to Europe increased from 19.5% in 2020 to 52.2% in 2022. Turkey has also become an important participant in international trade, allowing goods to be transshipped to countries in Africa and the Middle East. In addition, as stated in the article, Turkey, as a grain hub, sent a part of Ukrainian wheat flour in finished form to the African region Since the long-term survival of the concluded Black Sea Grain Initiative was not fully guaranteed, grain-importing countries bought grain during periods of falling export prices and built up stocks to prevent a worsening of the global food crisis.

Assessing the Competitiveness and Trends of Indian Sugar in Global Market: A 1999- 2018 Analysis

Sugar is one of the most produced and traded commodities in the world. India is the second-largest producer and largest consumer of sugar in the world. Therefore, the study was conducted to assess the position of Indian sugar in the international market. The study was based on Time series data of years 1999-2018. To assess the trend, trend analysis was done and, for appraising the competitiveness, export performance ratio and nominal protection coefficient was computed. The cubic model was found best fit for all the particulars considered in the models. Results revealed that production, import quantity and value of sugar had increasing trend while export quantity, value, unit price of export and import of sugar exhibited fluctuating trend. The trade of Indian sugar was found inconsistent in the decadal analysis but overall had a relative advantage in the international market with an EPR vale of 1.11. The higher NPC value of 1.02 pointed out a matter of concern as the Indian sugar was non-competitive in the international market.

The Impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Exports to the EU

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is regarded as the EU’s key policy tool to address carbon leakage, might have a non-negligible impact on China’s exports, as China is an important trading partner for the EU’s carbon-intensive products. This paper uses the GTAP-E model to simulate the impact of the EU CBAM on China’s exports to the EU from four aspects, export price, trade structure, trade value and terms of trade, by setting up multiple scenarios. The results show that the EU CBAM reduces the export prices of China’s taxed sectors to the EU, and that the export prices of other sectors show the same change characteristics. The export volume of China’s taxed sectors decreases differently with the export transfer effect and export inhibition effect. In terms of trade value, the EU carbon tariffs not only reduce China’s export value but also lead to a reduction in EU exports. The implementation of the EU CBAM improves the terms of trade of the EU and worsens the terms of trade of China. An expansion of the scope of taxation and a change in the calculation method of carbon emissions would aggravate the change in the terms of trade. The results suggest that feasible measures should be taken to strengthen international cooperation, promote the construction of a unified national carbon market and export diversification, and establish a firm carbon emission accounting system in order to mitigate the negative impact of the EU CBAM.

Exchange Rate Pass - through in Export Value-chain of Bangladesh

Determining the extent and rate of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation has been of utmost importance to policy-makers in developed and emerging nations. This study uses mixed techniques to examine the exchange rate pass-through in Bangladesh using a data sample that spans the years 1990 to 2020. Comparison with India and Bhutan has been made in some aspects. The results show that the ERPT is significant, asymmetric, and rapid, with prices reflecting significant amount of changes in exchange rates in short run. Policy-makers should continue aiming for low and stable inflation and establish a strong track record of prudent macroeconomic policies in order for the ERPT to drop. This study uses a panel of data to investigate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) connection, which is the link between the exchange rate and the prices of traded products. The results of this analysis indicate that while there is evidence of a one-to-one connection between changes in the exchange rate and export prices for primary exports, this link is not present for ready-made garment (RMG) exports. Market-specific econometric estimates show that exporters' pass-through behaviour is influenced by their perception of the demand pattern in destination markets. As a result, pricing-to-market (PTM) emerges as the dominant strategy, defying the "law of one price" hypothesis' prediction. The Multi-fiber Arrangement (MFA) system, which limited the competitive activity of several providers in many restricted commodities that are of export importance to Bangladesh, is to be made responsible for the startling results that RMG exports are insensitive to fluctuations in the currency rate.

Econometric modeling of tobacco exports in the milieu of changing global and national policy regimes: repercussions on the Indian tobacco sector

IntroductionTobacco, an important commercial crop, plays a crucial role in farmers' incomes and livelihoods to a sizable population and contributes significant exchange earnings to the Indian economy. Currently, India is the second-largest tobacco producer after China, with a production of 758 million kg (13% of global production) and exports of ~190 million kg of tobacco (9% of global tobacco export volume). However, there are uncertainties surrounding the tobacco sector, such as growing public health and environmental issues associated with tobacco production and consumption and changing national and international tobacco-related policy regimes. In this context, the current study investigates the determinants of tobacco exports and geographical shifts in export destinations over the years.MethodsThe statistical models employed are co-integration, and vector error-correlation models to test the short-run and long-run dynamics relationship between tobacco exports and the explanatory variables, and the Markov chain approach to find out geographical shifts in export destinations.Results and discussionThe econometric model estimated the relationship between the tobacco export volume with domestic production, export price, and global demand for Indian tobacco, and investigated the geographical shift in export destinations of tobacco in the context of changing global and national policy regimes on the sector. The econometric modeling framework confirms that there exists a statistically significant relationship between Indian tobacco export demand, domestic production, export price, and world demand for Indian tobacco. The geographical shift was evident in major export destinations during the post-WHO-FCTC (Framework Convention on Tobacco Control) regime. The model findings direct that India should take advantage of the export price, and global demand for tobacco as India ratified WHO-FCTC; there is no scope for horizontal expansion of the area under tobacco. This modeling framework aids as a tool to direct and explore the possible options with a greater emphasis on export-centric farming system in tobacco production by augmenting crop compliance and quality to meet the standards of international markets.