Export Policy Research Articles

Integrating Machine Learning for Enhanced Agricultural Productivity: A Focus on Bananas and Arecanut in the Context of India’s Economic Growth

AbstractAgriculture is one of the sectors that has an important impact, taking into account the problem of sufficient food supply on a global level. The process of predicting the yield of crops is among the most challenging undertakings in the agricultural industry. Agriculture is the main source of income for most developing nations. The purpose of the study is to investigate the significant role that agriculture plays in boosting India's economic growth. Additionally, the research considers the challenges posed by a growing population and a changing environment in terms of agricultural production and food security. The research focuses on analysing the complex characteristics of the agricultural industry, with a particular emphasis on the nutritional importance of tropical fruits, notably bananas and arecanut. These fruits are well-known for their vital nutrients and their role in ensuring world food security. This study acknowledges the importance of sustainable agriculture practices and incorporates sophisticated machine learning algorithms as dynamic tools to forecast crop yields and enhance decision-making processes throughout the crop development cycle. The main aim of this study is to create strong machine learning models and statistical techniques that can accurately predict crop yield by combining a variety of environmental parameters, then assess which models outperform each other. Assist yield projections may provide governments and policymakers with valuable information to make well-informed choices about food security, import–export policies, and resource allocation. It facilitates national- and regional-level food supply planning. The validation method utilises important metrics like R square (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). This present research adds to the continuing discussion on using creative methods to promote sustainable agricultural growth and ensure food security.

The Competitiveness and Export Performance of Indonesian Coffee in The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC)

Since its establishment in 1969, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has served as a platform for Islamic countries worldwide to cooperate in various sectors, including economic, social, and cultural. One longstanding form of economic cooperation among OIC countries is in the field of trade. Indonesia, as one of the major producers and exporters of coffee, has engaged in coffee trade with OIC countries, and this cooperation has continued to the present day. This research aims to assess the competitiveness and export performance of Indonesian coffee to OIC using the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Constant Market Share (CMS) methods. The results show that Indonesian coffee exports to OIC are competitive but have a declining growth rate. Meanwhile, the export performance of Indonesian coffee to OIC demonstrates good performance in following market distribution trends but shows shortcomings in meeting market preferences. Therefore, enhancing internal trade cooperation within OIC, partnering strategies with competing countries, and measures such as improving technology accessibility and evaluating responsive export policies are necessary.

Neoliberalism in question: The Philippines' nurse education and labour export as liberal neo‐statist development agenda

AbstractMany scholars have used neoliberalism as an analytical framework to examine the Philippines' labour export policy. While neoliberalism entails a retreat of the state in favour of market reforms, evidence shows that state intervention of the market becomes larger and stronger over time. This paper utilises liberal neo‐statism as an alternative framework to understand the Philippines' nurse labour export by explaining that the state's role is larger than and goes beyond labour brokerage. Following the historical institutionalism approach, we show the significant timing, sequence, and path dependence that affect the emergence of institutions that govern the Philippines' nurse labour export. Our paper reveals how specific policies and regulations in labour export are tucked within the disguise of market reforms, but which are manifest within a larger state's control. These policies serve as the state's apparatus for remittance generation and protection of migrant labour rights and welfare.

Export policy cooperation in a pandemic: the good, the bad and the hopeful

AbstractWe develop a model in which vaccine‐producing firms from different developed countries supply vaccines to the developing world during a pandemic. Exporting countries experience a negative externality from incomplete global vaccination, which they try to mitigate by exporting vaccines to developing countries. A cooperative export policy is compared to the alternative regimes of non‐cooperation and non‐intervention. When the negative externality is low, cooperation among exporting countries is worse for global welfare than non‐intervention. However, at high externality levels, export policy cooperation is globally superior to non‐cooperative export subsidization. It then even has the potential to maximize global welfare.

An Analysis of Bilateral Trade Relation between Turkey and Russia: Challenges and Opportunities of Russia-Ukraine War

Purpose: This study examines Turkey's bilateral trade intercourse with Russia in order to identify potentialities and problems for Turkey caused by the Russia-Ukraine War. Method/Design/Methodology/Approach: In the course of the study, with the help of descriptive statistics and calculations of trade indices such as trade intensity and trade complementarity indices, the current state of Russian-Turkish trade was examined. Afterwards, commodity sectors in which supply is expected to fall due to international companies’ suspension of businesses were identified. Next, the revealed comparative advantage index and its dynamic form were calculated to assess Turkey's potentialities to export commodities of the identified sectors to Russia and to highlight commodities groups where export policy should be improved. Thus, the study considers Russia and Turkey not as competitors, but as partners. Findings: It has been concluded that the countries have tight-connections and, to a certain extent, are dependent on one another. Both Russia and Turkey can benefit from further intensifying bilateral trade and improving partnership in other spheres as well. Originality: There is substantial literature comparing Russia and Turkey with other countries, trade blocks or with each other, mainly these two countries are counterposed from a competition perspective. This article, on the contrary, evaluates how cooperation and bilateral trade can improve the economic situation of both Russia and Turkey.

CURRENT CONDITIONS IN TOBACCO PRODUCTION IN MACEDONIA - SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS, DEVELOPMENT POSSIBILITIES AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

The Republic of North Macedonia, both regionally and globally, is known for producing high-quality aromatic Oriental tobacco. It is a country where quality types of Oriental tobacco are traditionally cultivated, alongside well-known regions in Turkey, such as Izmir and the Aegean region, where there are ecological conditions for producing high-quality Oriental tobacco. As a small continental country in the Balkans, Macedonia represents a "golden triangle" in the process of Oriental tobacco production and a long-term relatively stable traditional producer compared to surrounding countries that also produce this type of tobacco. Driven by the demands of the global market, scientific and technological advancements worldwide, and the available natural, production, and human potentials, it can be stated that today, and even more so in the future, there will be a significant need to elevate the quality of tobacco production to a much higher level, considering the demands of buyers and the need for efficient and effective production. Looking ahead, tobacco production, with certain oscillations, has a stable trend in movements, with gentle upward trends in global production, which our country must also follow and adapt to. The future of tobacco production will largely depend on good agricultural and export policies, as well as good state subsidy policies, all aimed at encouraging and directing the young, capable population towards tobacco production, where they will see not only an opportunity for existence but also space for development, expansion and certainly profit.

Export competition with China and firms' coping strategies

AbstractThis paper analyses how intensified Chinese competition in export markets affects firms' coping strategies. Using a novel identification approach that exploits changes in China's product‐specific export policies across industries, we find that Chinese export competition reduces the aggregate value of product‐ and destination‐specific exports of Finland, primarily by putting a downward pressure on export prices. The firm‐level analysis using Finnish administrative data shows that firms undertake larger price cuts for homogeneous products than for differentiated export products. We analyse further export firms' coping strategies on product range margin, and find that firms drop their marginal products as the Chinese export competition intensifies. Our results highlight the increasing importance of competition with China for exporters from developed countries.

Contribution of Rice in virtual water trade within countries: lessons for agriculture policy

AbstractIn the era of climate change, it is very relevant to focus on the trade of water in virtual form among the countries. Virtual water is the water used in the production of any product or service. Rice consumes approximately 2,497 litres of water (globally) for one kg of its production. Presently, India is the world’s biggest extractor of groundwater, more than the U.S. and China combined. This paper reviews the major countries involved in the global trade of virtual water through rice. The findings of the paper reveal that agricultural export policies of top Virtual Water Trading countries are not aligned with their water situation. Despite being a water-stressed country, India is the largest producer and exporter of water-intensive crops like rice. Thus, it becomes one of the largest virtual water traders too. There is a strong need to consider this virtual water trade while framing Agricultural policy to promote other less water-consuming crops and discourage virtual water export, especially for Global South.

How far India has succeeded in harnessing its export potential in rice? Evidence Using Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

This study employs the stochastic frontier gravity model (SFGM) to objectively assess the determinants of India’s rice exports from 2001 to 2019 across 22 major export destinations, highlighting untapped export potential and providing actionable policy recommendations for enhancing competitiveness in global rice markets. Results show that India's economic growth (GDP) and the GDP of importing nations positively impact rice exports. Conversely, geographical distances (representing transportation costs) and higher import tariffs act as deterrents. The devaluation of the Indian rupee positively influences export revenues. Common language benefits exports, while regional trade agreements show minimal impact. The study estimates significant untapped export potential between India and its partners, emphasizing the need for improved trade facilitation, logistics, and agreements. To maximize India's rice export potential, policymakers should prioritize quality compliance, streamline regulations, and invest in infrastructure and R&D for rice cultivars. Negotiating favorable trade agreements and implementing existing export policies like the New Agricultural Export Policy will aid market access and competitiveness.

Analysis of Indonesian coal export policy

Indonesia's coal exports play an important role in driving the country's economy and are one of its main export commodities. As one of the world's largest coal producers, Indonesia consistently contributes significantly to the global market. This research aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the export policy of coal commodities in Indonesia. The research method is qualitative, using a descriptive analysis approach. The study examines policies related to coal exports, including government regulations, trade rules, environmental regulations, and other policies that influence the Indonesian coal export process or policy changes that affect Indonesian coal exports. At the same time, it analyses the effects and implications of these policies on the export of coal commodities in Indonesia. The research uses the theory of trade liberalism as a framework to address the research objectives. The findings indicate that Indonesia's coal export policy significantly impacts the coal industry, the national economy and international market dynamics. Although mercantilism may persist for a certain period, the dominance of liberalism, which adheres to the principles of market mechanism, has successfully surpassed the influence of mercantilism. Thus, this research contributes to a better understanding of the role of coal in Indonesia's export context and provides a basis for future policy improvements.

What Are the Economic Impacts of Indonesia’s Export Ban? A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This study aims to assess the economic impact of the mineral export ban on Indonesia and other countries. The comparative-static version of the computable general equilibrium model (Global Tarde Analysis Project (GTAP)) is used to analyse the economic impact of the export ban, with a particular focus on GDP, welfare, terms of trade and external trade. The most recent GTAP version 9 database was used for the modelling simulations of the Indonesian export ban. The GTAP version 9 database has three reference years: 2004, 2007 and 2011. It already aggregates 140 regions and 57 sectors. The modelling simulation results show that the policy of bauxite, copper and tin export tyres benefits the Indonesian economy. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s export ban policy harmed the economies of other countries, particularly China, Japan, India, Korea and the EU-28.

A Study of Factors Influencing China's Agricultural Exports to Japan

As a key focus of trade negotiations between China and Japan, trade in agricultural products has received special attention to the tariffs and preferential conditions involved. According to data provided by China Customs, China's agricultural exports to Japan fell after peaking in 2012 and fell further to 9.64 billion yuan in 2020. This paper selects the 2000-2021 china export agricultural products trade data from the Department of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Commerce to Analyze the trade status of Japan, and finds that the scale of trade shows an expanding trend, and there are fluctuations in some years. Establish a business gravity model, study the effectiveness and potential of developing China's agricultural export trade with Japan, and analyze various factors affecting the effectiveness of agricultural export trade, and the results show that there is room for progress in China's agricultural export trade with Japan, and the scale of trade can be further expanded. Finally, it proposes to further improve the export efficiency of agricultural products, stabilize the exchange rate, improve import and export policy control and further broaden the foreign trade market, optimize the trade structure and promote the quality of agricultural products.

An integrated system dynamics model of electricity production, consumption, and export policy in Iran considering carbon emissions

The electricity industry is a cornerstone of modern economies, requiring accurate forecasting to facilitate informed decision-making aligned with sustainable development goals. This study employs a novel, comprehensive system dynamics model comprising four subsystems: consumption, production, carbon emissions, and electricity trading. Our analysis reveals significant trends in Iran's electricity industry. The household sector is projected to become the largest energy consumer, with anticipated reductions in consumer sector subsidies over time. By 2040, total electricity production is forecasted to reach 862,835 million kWh, with renewable sources contributing only 3.3 percent. This trajectory is accompanied by a substantial increase in carbon emissions, reaching 448,383 tons, an alarming 2.6-fold surge compared to 2020. The private sector is anticipated to account for 70 percent of these emissions. Given the findings, prioritizing renewable electricity sources becomes imperative to align with sustainable development goals. Utilizing this integrated model, stakeholders can formulate informed strategies and interventions to navigate the evolving landscape of Iran's electricity sector.

The Urgency of Umkm Export Policy Relaxation as a Trade Expansion Step Amid Economic Globalization

The Urgency of Umkm Export Policy Relaxation as a Trade Expansion Step Amid Economic Globalization

Beyond Borders: A Review of Food Market Integration and Sustaiable Develomnet Goals

This paper presents a comprehensive review of food market integration research spanning 1990–2023, provides a thorough bibliography, and emphasizes its growth between developed and emerging economies. It evaluates 140 papers with the aim of highlighting the importance of price transmission, market stability and market integration in the food sector. The study provides an overview of econometric methodologies, review global assessment methods, and identifies the major elements that influence market integration, such as commerce, social capital, government interference, export policies, institutions, information, competition, and market power. The finding reveals a rise in research activities between 2000 and 2015, with a growing focus on developing countries. This work is to offer a synopsis to researchers, academicians, and policy makers on the extent of the food market both internationally and domestically. This paper will be helpful for the researchers interested in understanding and investigating the dynamics of food market integration with a useful resource by classifying previous works and identifying current developments. The review also offers commentary on current research and prospects and their implication in line with SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities) as it promotes fair access to resources and economic opportunities.

Public Opinion and Drone Exports: Evidence from a Conjoint Experiment in the United States

Abstract Drones are now a mainstay in war. Yet not all countries can manufacture armed and networked drones, heightening global demand. While some drone-manufacturing countries have adopted permissive export policies, U.S. policymakers have been more restrictive, citing international legal commitments and domestic export controls. In this study, I consider drone exports as a question of both political economy and public opinion. I derive and test hypotheses about public support for drone exports through a conjoint survey experiment administered in the United States. I find that perceived alignment between the recipient country and United States, as well as the intended use of drones, are the most important factors shaping public support for drone exports. Export control measures are less relevant to public opinion. These findings offer the first experimental evidence about public opinion for drone exports, which have implications for the political economy of security and policies relating to the export of military technologies.

Trade and Export Policies: Navigating International Markets By IJISRT

In an era marked by unprecedented globalization and interconnected economies, navigating the complex landscape of international markets has become a pivotal challenge for businesses and governments alike. At the core of this complex web is the dynamic relationship between trade and export policies that shape the parameters of economic interactions between countries. Trade and export policies become increasingly important tools in the fight for national economic security, influencing the success or failure of attempts to penetrate new markets. The complexity of creating, carrying out, and modifying these policies necessitates a sophisticated grasp of economic trends, regulatory frameworks, and geopolitical dynamics. The purpose of this research is to fill these gaps by thoroughly exploring the intricacies and implications of the trade and export policy landscape, and provide valuable insights to inform informed decisions for all stakeholders navigating the complex world of international markets. It can be analysed by examining the challenges faced, role of export policies in promoting the exports and the government interface. The aim is not only to comprehend the existing landscape but also to anticipate and adapt to the ever- evolving nature of international trade. The journey towards comprehensive findings is an exploration into the strategic nuances that define successful navigation of international markets. Data for the purpose is collected through a structured questionnaire and the data collected is expected to have the respondent’s knowledge and understanding of the trade and export policies global markets. For the purpose of analysis we used the correlation test in spss software in order to test the hypothesis and find the relationship between the variables.

Evaluation of the impact of export restrictions on the upgrading of China’s energy industry based on the Kuznets curve

The EI is an important pillar of modern economic development and a key factor in ensuring national strategic energy security. The upgrading of China’s Energy Industry (EI) faces a series of problems and challenges, such as excessive energy production, difficulty in energy technology innovation, and low energy efficiency. The significance of this study lies in its endeavor to tackle these challenges by focusing on several facets, including the promotion of innovation in energy technology and the enhancement of energy management. Utilizing the Kuznets Curve (KC) theory and considering energy export restrictions (ER) as a constraint, the study analyzed the impact of China’s EI upgrading. It analyzed the relationship between changes in indicators such as EI resource utilization rate, degree of ERs, export proportion, and resource allocation proportion of energy enterprises and the impact of China’s EI upgrading. According to the experimental results, it can be concluded that when the resource utilization rate was between 30% and 60%, the energy export volume showed a significant growth trend. As it gradually approached saturation, the contribution of energy production growth began to weaken and showed an inverted U-shape. Examining how the expansion of Economic Relations (ERs) affects the enhancement of China’s Economic Infrastructure (EI) within the framework of the Knowledge Capital (KC) can provide valuable insights. It offers guidance on striking a balance between exports and domestic demand in China’s economic development, facilitating the formulation of export policies, supporting structural adjustments and advancements in China’s EI, and contributing to the promotion of sustainable development (SD). Additionally, this analysis aids in preventing potential issues and safeguarding both the ecological environment and the interests of citizens.

Does Climate Policy Affect The Price And Volume Of Indonesian Coal Exports?

This study aims to investigate the impact of climate policies, such as the ParisAgreement and its derivatives, the Gasglow climate pact, on the reference coal priceand its effect on the volume of Indonesian coal exports. A qualitative approach,utilizing secondary data from various international level journals, data from theMinistry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the World Bank, and other relevantsources, was employed. The research method utilized literature study. The results ofthis study indicate Climate policies the Paris Agreement, the Glasgow Climate Pact,and benchmark coal price on Indonesia's coal export volume is limited do not have anotable effect the volume of coal exports do not significantly impact the reference.Recommendation for Policy makers should conduct a comprehensive assessment ofcoal export policies, with a particular focus on their alignment with the commitmentsoutlined in the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Pact. This assessmentshould include an examination of emissions targets and whether or not coal exportsare at odds with them.

Optimal geographical distribution of Saudi dates exports

PurposeThis research aimed to maximize the value of date exports for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.Design/methodology/approachTo achieve its objective, this study relied on secondary data and quantitative economic analysis represented by the Linear programming model.FindingsThis study showed that Saudi Arabia exports dates to the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Kuwait, Turkey, Somalia, Jordan, Oman, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh Morocco, Lebanon, and others. The geographical concentration coefficient for the quantity and value of date exports was 35.05% and 34.74%, respectively, during the study period. Saudi Arabia exported a quantity of dates amounting to 83.08 thousand tons, representing 40.57% of the average total amount of Saudi dates exports during the study period, to Yemen, Somalia, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Egypt, China, Djibouti, Bahrain, and Ethiopia, at prices lower than the average export price of 1200.31 dollars/ton, and therefore the export policy needs to restructure the geographical distribution of date exports. Based on the models of geographical distribution, Saudi date exports value can be increased by 32.76–127.12 million dollars, meaning can be increased by 13.77% – 53.44%. In light of the results of the proposed models, this study recommends the need to restructure the geographical distribution of Saudi date exports so that the value of Saudi date exports can be increased by 127.12 million dollars from the current situation for the period 2017–2021.Originality/valueThe paper’s original contribution lies in its proposal to restructure the geographical distribution of Saudi date exports to increase the value of exports.