An Analysis of Bilateral Trade Relation between Turkey and Russia: Challenges and Opportunities of Russia-Ukraine War

Abstract

Purpose: This study examines Turkey's bilateral trade intercourse with Russia in order to identify potentialities and problems for Turkey caused by the Russia-Ukraine War. Method/Design/Methodology/Approach: In the course of the study, with the help of descriptive statistics and calculations of trade indices such as trade intensity and trade complementarity indices, the current state of Russian-Turkish trade was examined. Afterwards, commodity sectors in which supply is expected to fall due to international companies’ suspension of businesses were identified. Next, the revealed comparative advantage index and its dynamic form were calculated to assess Turkey's potentialities to export commodities of the identified sectors to Russia and to highlight commodities groups where export policy should be improved. Thus, the study considers Russia and Turkey not as competitors, but as partners. Findings: It has been concluded that the countries have tight-connections and, to a certain extent, are dependent on one another. Both Russia and Turkey can benefit from further intensifying bilateral trade and improving partnership in other spheres as well. Originality: There is substantial literature comparing Russia and Turkey with other countries, trade blocks or with each other, mainly these two countries are counterposed from a competition perspective. This article, on the contrary, evaluates how cooperation and bilateral trade can improve the economic situation of both Russia and Turkey.