Export Instability Research Articles

The impact of export instability on economic growth: sample of MENA countries

The impact of export instability on economic growth: sample of MENA countries

ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FUNCTIONS ON EGYPT'S EXPORTS OF GRAPES AND ORANGES IN THE MOST IMPORTANT INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

The study aims to study the determinants of external demand on themost important Egyptian fruit crops (orange or grapes) in the most importantinternational markets. The study examined the development of Egyptianexports of the most important fruit crops (orange or grapes), the geographicaldistribution of Egypt's exports of orange- The instability of exports (orange -grape) and determining the main factors affecting the external demand fororange and grapes in the most important import markets to estimate the impacton the amount of exports. The research was based on secondary data publishedand unpublished by different local and international bodies. The descriptiveanalysis method was used using some statistical methods.The results of the study show that the export of the study wascharacterized by continuous increase during the study period. The study also includes estimating the instability coefficients of the quantities, values andprices of grapes and oranges for the export prices of the study crops. Theresults indicate that the most years Stabilized for orange in 2005, where thecoefficient of instability was 1.68, while for grapes the most stable year in2015, which amounted to about 3.8The study dealt with the geographical distribution of exports of the twocrops and the relative importance of importing countries from the study crops.It was the main importer of orange crops (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine,United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands) and was themain importer of grapes (United Kingdom, Holland, Italy, Germany). Andestimate the demand for exports of the study. It should be noted that one of themost important global economic variables that have an impact on the Egyptianagricultural exports are export prices in dollars, the amount of domesticproduction, average per capita income in the importing countries, Mali Theamount of imports of the crop to importing countries.

Pengaruh Customer Relationship Marketing Terhadap Customer Loyalty Melalui Customer Value Pada Bank Jatim Di Jember

This research is aimed to analyse the influence of customer relationship marketing and customer value to customer loyalty in Bank Jatim Jember. This reserach using explanatory research aproach, the population are those customers who of bank jatim jember with obtained 110 respondents as sample using ferdinand formulas .The analyse method in this research using path analyse .The result of this research is customer relationship marketing significantly influenced customer value, customer relationship marketing significantly influenced customer loyalty, customer value significantly influenced customer loyalty .
 Keywords: Instability of exports, instability indexes, non-oil, export

Tingkat Instabilitas Komoditi Ekspor Nonmigas di Indonesia Periode 2007Q1-2015Q4

The purpose of this study was to assess the value of non-oil export instability in Indonesia and to determine the dominant factor affecting the movement of the level of instability in Indonesia's non-oil exports. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from the central bank and the relevant agencies. The analytical tool used in this research is the index of instability of exports to the data time series. The objects of this study are value, volume and price of non-oil exports in Indonesia 2007Q1-2015Q4 period. The results of this study is the movement of the value of non-oil exports in Indonesia are relatively stable or have a low level of instability and the dominant affecting factor is the volume of exports.
 Keywords: Instability of exports, instability indexes, non-oil, export

CEE’s export instability toward East Asian markets: Evidence from panel ARDL models

Exports play a significant role in the economic catching-up transition in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The East Asian market has emerged for CEE’s exports not only because of its dynamic economy, but also because of the European debt crisis, the political tension between Ukraine and Russia, and the recent threat of terrorism. This study utilises panel ARDL models to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between export instability and commodity concentration and geographic concentration. The datasets cover the 2004–2014 period for the trade of all the CEE countries with 10 East Asian marketplaces. The results of the causal relationships show significance in the long-run, but not in the short-run. This study suggests that the CEE export policy toward East Asia is likely to consider the impact of trade concentrations on export instability.

Growth, instability and forecast of marine products export from India

This paper analysed growth and instability in export of marine products from India with an attempt to forecast the total export quantity of marine products from the country. The compound growth rates and instability indices of marine products export from India were estimated for major importing countries viz., Japan, USA, European Union, South-east Asia and Middle East; as more than 80% of the marine products export from India destines to these markets. The study revealed high compound growth rate and low instability in case of selected countries. The study also revealed that India’s marine products export concentrated mainly to those countries, which were falling in less desirable or least desirable category which has affected export performance of the country. Forecast of India’s marine products export was done by fitting univariate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. ARIMA (1, 1, 0) was found suitable for modelling marine products export from India. The results of ARIMA model indicated increasing trend in export of Indian marine products. This calls for serious attention by policy makers to identify competitive and stable market destinations for marine products export which could help in harnessing the potential of marine products export from India.

Performance of exporting shrimps and dry fishes from Bangladesh

This study shows the present status of exporting shrimps and dry fishes from Bangladesh in the pre-and -post liberalization period, estimates the growth rate and instability of exporting shrimps and dry fishes for earnings, quantity & price for five years. Recent status presents that farming of shrimp and processing of dry fish are increasing over the year. Status of exporting shrimp & dry fish (value, volume & price) are decreasing in recent years compared to previous years. The overall estimated growth of exported shrimp and dry fish (value) were found 19.48% and 16.53% and (volume) were found 11.52% and 12.86%, respectively. On the other hand, overall estimated export growth of shrimp & dry fish (price) were 175.94% and 37.58%, respectively. Instability in shrimp export earnings was found the highest in period I which was 62.16% and the lowest in period II which was 12.56%. Dry fish export instability was the highest for period I which was 128.08% & the lowest percentage was 54.49% in period II. Instability in quantity export of shrimp was found the highest in period I at 63.29% whereas it was 155.92% in period I for dry fish export and the lowest percentage for both were 14.5% & 48.66% in period II, respectively. On the other hand, instability in prices of exported shrimp & dry fish were found the highest in period I which were 25.26% & 140.63%, respectively. The lowest percentage for shrimp in period II which was 11.29% and for dry fish it was 63.56% in period III. It also affects export of shrimp & dry fish from Bangladesh. The circumstances of shrimp & dry fish export demand different institutional supports to enhance the marketing activities and to strengthen the competitive position in the international market with a view to ensuring more contribution to our economy.J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 14(1): 69-74, June 2016

Identifikasi Faktor-Faktor Penyebab Penurunan Aktivitas Perdagangan Mebel di Koridor Jalan Soekarno Hatta Kabupaten Jepara

<p class="Abstract"><em>The utilization of space in Jepara Regency is dominated by the local industries of furniture manufacturing and have the export potential. The furniture showrooms can be found along the Jepara Regency corridor. One of the corridors that h</em><em>ave</em><em> a lot of furniture showrooms is the corridor of Soekarno Hatta. However, the corridor of Soekarno Hatta has the low function corridor because of a lot of showrooms is closed. The shift of the showrooms to the domestic industry and the instability of exports lead to the decreased area functions. The study aims to identify the factors that lead to the decreased function area as the furniture trading area in the corridor of Soekarno Hatta. The study was conducted with a qualitative approach. The results showed that the dominant factor leading to the decreased function area as the furniture trading area in the corridor of Jalan Soekarno Hatta is the performance of export activities. The online media marketing, the directly shoppers to the furniture craftsmen, and the coincided with the school and Eid al-Fitr moon affect the performance of the furniture export.</em></p>

Growth, Instability, and Structural Changes of Non-Basmati Rice Exports from Tamil Nadu Ports

Tamil Nadu is one of the major non basmati rice producing state. About 5% of non basmati rice is exported through the ports in Tamil Nadu. Export of non basmati rice is increasing over the years. In this context, the present study aimed to measure the growth, instability, and structural changes in the export of non-basmati rice from Tamil Nadu ports. The study found that the export of Matta, Sonamasuri, Idly rice, Ponni varieties had grown with high instability. In terms of milling type, full boiled and raw rice had grown significantly at 9.4% and 8.65% per annum, respectively with high instability. Sonamasuri and Ponni varieties, parboiled and raw rice milling types had high probability of retention than other varieties and milling types in export trade. The instability in export quantity and value was higher after rice export ban period than the pre ban period. Among the importing countries, it was found that Singapore, UAE, and Sri Lanka had higher probability of retention of share of non basmati rice exports.

Consumer goods and export during economic slowdowns

Purpose The difference in the export performance of different countries during the Great Recession 2008-2009 attracted some attention. It was frequently argued that the differences in export concentration were responsible for the differences in export performance: countries with more concentrated export portfolio suffered more during the recession compared to countries with more diversified export portfolio. Empirical evidence frequently failed to hold up this hypothesis, especially in the case of commodity concentration of export. Using disaggregated trade data and resorting to well-known theories of consumption demand, this paper argues that one of the main reasons for the difference in the export performance of different countries during the recession lay in the composition of the export basket and the general nature of the demand for different types of commodities. Design/methodology/approach Graphs and tables are first used to give a visual confirmation of the hypotheses advanced by the paper. Some theoretical arguments (proof) are advanced why consumer goods export should be less susceptible to recession. Finally cross-country data are used for regression analysis to test the export instability hypothesis. Findings All empirical evidence lend strong support to the hypothesis. Countries whose export basket comprised greater proportion of consumer goods suffered relatively less during the recession. Research limitations/implications The research could be enriched by using both time series and cross-section data and making a distinction between different types of consumer goods, namely, agricultural and manufactured goods. Data limitations did not permit this: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) data, used for this study, do not differentiate between these types of goods. Practical implications Export of more consumer goods may help reduce export revenue instability along business cycles. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is no study that had ever attributed greater export stability to consumer goods export except those by the author(s).

Instability in Export of Onion in India

Onion is an important vegetable and has been grown in almost all the parts of India for thousands of years. The onion is regarded as a highly export oriented crop and earns valuable foreign exchange for the country. The study was taken up to know the instability of the onion markets in India during 1995–2013, for this the secondary data was collected and to know about the stability in export, Instability index. This index was used to assess the instability associated with the export of onion to different countries. The instability index of export in terms of quantity during pre removal period was 23.6 per cent, while in the post removal period it has reduced to 16.89 per cent signaling stability in terms of export. This can be attributed to increased production (area led). In terms of value much difference was not observed between the two time periods. United Arab Emirates was the most loyal importer of Indian fresh onions with retention probabilities of 0.65. This was reinforced by the transfers from Indonesia to the extent of 0.11 probabilities, and 0.33 probabilities from other country share. But it had tendency to lose its share to Malaysia to the extent of 0.12 probabilities. Malaysia with a retention probability of 0.44 was the third loyal importer of Indian onions. It had absorbed 0.12 probability shares from UAE, 0.37 shares from Bangladesh and 0.11 share probabilities from Indonesia. But it had lost 0.2633 probability share of its previous year's share Bangladesh and 0.29 probability share to the others countries. Indonesia was the second loyal importer of Indian onion with a retention probability of 0.77. It had lost its share to Malaysia and UAE at 0.11 probability share.

Export Performance of Indian Walnut: Decomposition Analysis and Gravity Model Approach

Export performance of Indian walnut has been comprehensively analyzed in this study employing chronological data. The export of walnut from India has significantly increased over the years, but still constituted only 3 per cent of total world export. Between 1979 and 2012, the export of shelled walnut has significantly increased, at an annual growth rate of about 3 per cent, while walnut with shell has shown a declining trend over the years, implying widening of markets for value-added products of walnut. The export instability in quantity and value of both shelled and walnut with shell has declined over the years; however, the instability in unit price of shelled walnut has increased over the years. The decomposition analysis has revealed highest contribution of change in mean export quantity among the other components of change in the average export value of walnut. The unit value of Indian walnut export has been found lower compared to many other nations, indicating the possibility of a higher price by ensuring quality parameters as per global standards. The estimates of gravity model have revealed that per capita GDP, agricultural GDP, and consumption of importing partners, and also the Indian GDP are the significant factors determining Indian walnut export. The study has also unveiled unexploited potential of Indian walnut export to some trading partners. The study has emphasized on the improvement in quality of walnut, integration of production and value addition, export promotion and strengthening of bilateral ties with regular trade partners for enhancing export of Indian walnut.

A Strategy for Post-crisis Growth of Madagascar Export Diversification and Economic Growth

Export diversification can lead to higher growth. Developing countries should diversify their exports since this can; for example, help them to overcome export instability or the negative impact of terms of trade in primary products. The process of economic development is typically a process of structural transformation where countries move from producing “poor-country goods” to “rich-country goods”. Export diversification does play an important role in this process. We also provide robust empirical evidence of a positive effect of export diversification on real GDP per capita.

Oil Revenues and Export Earnings Instability: The Evidence from Iran

As a member of OPEC, Iran is a nation that is dependent on petrodollars. More specifically, roughly 80 percent of total export earnings in Iran are generated from oil revenue. This in fact is one of the attributes of many developing countries in that their exports are concentrated in either one or a small number of primary products that contribute to the bulk of their foreign exchange revenues. Export instability occurs because export earnings tend to fluctuate annually to a greater extent for developing countries than for advanced countries. The factors that give rise to export instability can be classified as price variability and a high degree of commodity concentration. To date, no study has examined the impact of export instability in the highly oil-dependent Iran. This study develops a model and employs a forty-year annual time series data set to estimate the impact of commodity concentration and price variability in Iran. The estimation results obtained from the time-series model developed in this study does not support the conventional argument, regarding the positive correlation between commodity concentration and export instability. It also shows that fluctuations in petroleum export revenues have significant impact on total export earnings instability in Iran.

Export Earnings Instability and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981-2014)

This paper investigates the impact of export earnings instability on economic growth in Nigeria through the application of regression analysis. The study describes the trend of oil and non-oil export in Nigeria, examines the impact of export earnings instability on economic growth and identifies adequate policy measures and suggestions based on the research findings, towards reducing the undesirable effects of export instability in Nigeria. Secondary data from various sources were used in the study. Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique was adopted in testing Unit root property of the series. Using the Ordinary Least Squares regression method, the study first examines the impact of export earnings instability on economic growth with the aid of aggregated and disaggregated models. It further uses the Granger causality test to examine the direction of causality between GDP and export earnings (using the same aggregated and disaggregated models). From the result obtained in the regression of the disaggregated model, R 2 is 0.954. This indicates that oil and non-oil exports actually account for 95.4% of the total variation in economic growth during the years under study. A percentage increase in oil export will cause about 4% economic growth (0.042785), which is statistically significant at all levels. A percentage increase in non-oil export will cause an economic growth of about 10.4%, at 10 per cent level of significance. Also, with a positive and significant value of the intercept, the result indicates that GDP does not only depend on oil and non-oil export, as other variables affect the GDP. The F- Statistics 316.9, which is a measure of the joint significance of the explanatory variables, is found to be statistically significant as indicated by the corresponding probability value 0.0000, and the Durbin-Watson statistics of 1.90, which is in the neighborhood of 2 indicates that there is no autocorrelation. The Granger Causality test of the disaggregated model shows that both Oil and non-oil exports actually granger causes GDP. It also show that non-oil exports granger cause Oil exports. It was found that of all export earnings in Nigeria, oil export has stronger grasp in terms of economic growth compared with the non-oil exports. It was also found that export earnings, from both oil and the non-oil sectors, affects economic growth in Nigeria, and not otherwise. Thus policies geared towards the development of the oil and non-oil sectors will have a positive effect on the economy and thereby resulting to an increase in the gross domestic

Export instability when international agricultural markets operate under oligopoly

Current evidence has revealed that international markets of a number of agricultural commodities operate under oligopoly. This paper uses a theoretical framework to show that under this market imperfection and when farmers do not have perfect information about the prices they will receive in the future, an unstable model arises. It is predicted from this result that high degree of export instability might arise as countries continue to sign international trade agreements. The paper argues that in order to minimise this problem, informational strategies should be implemented at the farming level.

Export instability and economic development: a reappraisal

Among the many problems besetting international economic relations, the instability of exports of developing countries has always been a major topic of analysis and discussion. Although developing countries identify this issue as an important obstacle to development, most of the inquiries over the last 30 years about its causes and consequences have produced controversial results. The economic literature on export instability is divided into two main streams, one analysing world markets for primary commodities and their quantity-price-earnings relationships, the other focussing on individual developing countries and their macroeconomic frameworks. The present work comments on recent additions to each of these streams which have livened the debate, before offering a new contribution to the theoretical and empirical analysis of export instability.

Export instability. A rejoinder

This brief note serves as a response to a recent contribution by Leslie Stein on the debate on the issue of export instability in which he disregarded the author’s findings from a previous work. Here, the authors seek to clarify their methodology and point out a misunderstanding on the part of Stein.

Export instability and economic growth in Nigeria: a time series analysis

The primary products and commodities provide food and livelihood for families and communities, are sources of raw material, and export earnings for many governments in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries and most especially, Nigeria. However, over the years, global prices of primary products and commodities have been very volatile, with serious implications for economic growth. As a response, this study investigates the impact of export instability on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data from 1970q1 to 2011q4 and an econometric approach that addresses the problem of non-stationarity. As a departure from previous studies, the paper uses an instability measure that varies over time and a relatively large data sample size. The results show that export instability has negative effects on economic growth and also on investment.

Export instability and development: a review of some recent findings

Over the last two decades increasing attention has been placed on the occurrence and consequences of export instability. Thus far, however, research on this subject has produced diverse results. Disagreement has ranged from the choice of appropriate index, the relative incidence of export instability between advanced and developing countries, the causes of instability and finally its general economic effect. The present work summarises and takes stock of the views of professional economists to see, for example, whether proposals fro commodity price stabilisation agreements can be justified on pure economic criteria.