Export-oriented Research Articles

From export boom to private debt bubble: a macroeconomic policy regime assessment of Canada’s shifting growth regime

This paper examines the emergence of private debt-led growth in Canada since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by means of a growth regime and macroeconomic policy regime assessment. Examining each of the four business cycles in the 1983–2020 period, roughly encompassing the entirety of the neoliberal period, results demonstrate the emergence of a ‘rising’ weakly export-led growth regime in the early 1990s, a shift to a ‘falling’ weakly export-led regime by 2001, and a turn to a debt-led private demand regime since the GFC. The macroeconomic policy regime then identifies the structural changes and policy factors that have contributed to Canada’s shifting growth regime. While price competitiveness played an important role in the first three cycles, it failed to re-establish an export-led regime in the post-GFC period due to decreased non-price competitiveness. Instead, the post-GFC combination of low real interest rates, which encouraged the accumulation of private debt and fiscal policy, which ex post did not address the negative financial balances of the household sector, supported the turn to private debt-led growth.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Performance: Case of Malaysia

Purpose: The aim of the study was to investigate the exchange rate volatility and export performance: case of Malaysia
 Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries.
 Findings: Exchange rate volatility negatively impacts Malaysia's exports, reducing both volumes and revenues. Stable exchange rates are crucial for export competitiveness and attracting foreign investment. Effective hedging and exchange rate policies are recommended to mitigate volatility's adverse effects. Macroeconomic stability and structural reforms are essential for Malaysia's resilience to external shocks. Managing exchange rate volatility is key for sustaining Malaysia's export-led growth and fostering economic development.
 Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Portfolio balance theory, j-curve theory & competitive devaluation theory may be used to anchor future studies on the exchange rate volatility and export performance: case of Malaysia. Malaysia can provide practical insights into how exporters can effectively integrate risk management strategies into their operations to mitigate the adverse effects of exchange rate volatility. Malaysia can serve as a model for proactive policy responses to exchange rate volatility, offering lessons and strategies that can be adapted by policymakers in other emerging economies.

The competitiveness of South African table grape exports in the European markets: Threats from Peru and Chile

ABSTRACT International trade in table grapes is expanding rapidly, with Peru overtaking South Africa as the second-largest exporter from the Southern Hemisphere behind Chile. The primary objective of the study was to the determine whether South Africa, with 75% of its exports destined for Europe, will be negatively affected by changes in Peru and Chile's export orientation. This question is addressed by breaking it down into four key factors. The first is the role of policy by applying Anderson et al.'s (2006) empirical framework of nominal rate of assistance (NRA) followed by measures of competitiveness, namely relative trade advantage (RTA), normalised revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) and the logarithmic relative export advantage (InRXA). The last two measures – indirect freight cost and trade barriers - zoom in on trade from one country to a specific destination. The results and discussion highlight that Peru, operating in close to a zero-distorted environment, has the potential to increase its competitiveness in the global table grape market. Whilst South Africa's table grape exporters also have this potential, given the advantages of a depreciating rand, broader and more favourable market access outside the EU and UK is paramount.

A causal analysis between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the Southern African Customs Union Countries

This study investigates the direction of causality between exports, imports and GDP per capita in the SACU countries: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Eswatini (Swaziland). The Toda-Yamamoto augmented Granger no-causality approach is applied. The study finds mixed causality results between exports, imports, and GDP per capita for the different countries. The export-led growth hypothesis is supported for Botswana and Eswatini, while import-led growth hypothesis is only confirmed in Namibia. Results suggest that a bi-directional Granger causality between exports and growth for Botswana and bi-directional Granger causality between imports and growth for Lesotho and South Africa exist. There is therefore no clear time-precedence. Finally, there is evidence of growth-led export hypothesis for Botswana, Lesotho, and South Africa. These mixed findings indicate that SACU countries should not solely dedicate their available resources to pursuing trade openness in promoting economic development but also address domestic economic reform strategies.

The King of Fruits Dilemma in Malaysia: Discovering Durian Export Challenges to China

This study delves into the challenges encountered by Malaysian durian farmers in exporting durians to the Chinese market, with a specific focus on critical factors such as durian supply, the logistics system, and consumer preferences. To scrutinize these challenges, a qualitative research methodology was employed, involving interviews with durian exporters based in Pahang, Malaysia. The exportation rate of Malaysian durians to China is significantly influenced by various factors, including durian supply, the efficiency of the logistics system, and consumer preferences. Additionally, this research has unveiled additional challenges, such as the need for quality control and pest management on durian plantations. The study primarily concentrated on data collection in Pahang state due to its pivotal role in durian exports to China. Future research endeavors could broaden the scope to include other notable durian plantation regions in Malaysia, such as Penang and Kelantan. This study contributes valuable insights to the knowledge base, shedding light on the challenges inherent in the Malaysian durian export industry.

MSME Internationalization Strategy Towards Global Business Competition Case Study on CV. Dua Putri Sholehah “HUNAY” Probolinggo

In the Indonesian economy, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises are the business group that has the largest number and has proven to be resistant to various shocks from the economic crisis. MSMEs are encouraged to be able to expand to the global market, not just on a national scale. Strategy is very important to determine the company's success in achieving its long-term goals. By choosing the right strategy for a particular company position, a company will have a competitive advantage. The aim of this research is to find out what is the most appropriate strategy for CV. Dua Putri Sholehah "Hunay" Probolinggo as MSMEs in facing global business competition. This research method uses SWOT analysis and IFAS, EFAS, by previously collecting data through interviews, questionnaires, observations and also literature studies. The results of this research indicate that the strategy that must be carried out by CV. Dua Ptri Sholehah "Hunay" is in quadrant I, namely the quadrant that supports an aggressive growth strategy which shows that this company has the strength to take advantage of existing opportunities, especially in export development. Currently the organization is in a strong condition so it is possible to continue to expand by opening branches to the countries it will target, increasing growth and achieving maximum progress.

THE IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION ON THE PERFORMANCE OF TANZANIA’S EXPORT SECTOR – A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FROM 1980 TO 2019

Aim: This article aims to enhance understanding of the impact of trade liberalization on Tanzania’s export performance. As many studies conducted, both in developing and developed countries, have yielded mixed results and the relationship varies across different nations, it is difficult to provide a definitive answer to the question of whether trade liberalization affects Tanzania’s export sector without first conducting an empirical analysis. Methods: This study employs a quantitative research methodology because it allows for a larger sample size, greater objectivity, and accuracy. Due to the nature of the study and the data used, a statistical study design was chosen. Macroeconomic data spanning 1980 to 2019 was obtained from the World Bank and the Tanzania Bureau of Statistics to analyze the effects of trade liberalization on export performance using vector error correction and autoregressive distributed lag models. Results: The results reveal a sig­nificant positive correlation between trade liberalization and subsequent export performance, as well as the interdependencies between trade liberalization and foreign direct investment (FDI) strategies. There is a re­ciprocal relationship between trade liberalization and exchange rates, implying the significance of competent exchange rate management in enhancing export competitiveness. Conclusions: The study concludes that trade liberalization, FDI, and export performance have a long-term positive correlation. This implies that a carefully executed trade liberalization policy is crucial not only for the expansion of the export industry sector and the influx of capital, but also for the transformation and development of the nation.growth.

Export competitiveness of Non- basmati Rice in Chhattisgarh, India

The present study is to analysed the export competitiveness of non-basmati rice in Chhattisgarh based on secondary data. All of the secondary sources engaged in collection and curation of export data were utilised. The Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS), the Indiastat website, and the Agricultural and Processed Food Product Export Development Authority (APEDA) statistical export reports was used to gather the secondary data needed to meet the objectives over 10 years (2014 to 2023). Nominal protection coefficient, Revealed comparative advantage techniques were used to analyse the data. As NPC and RCA was less than unity, respectively, the competitiveness revealed that Chhattisgarh had a comparative disadvantage in the export of non- basmati rice. Thus the share of non-basmati rice in total agriculture export is medium.

Potential for Exporting Vietnamese Fish Sauce

A culture's identity and spirit are both embodied in its fish sauce. Fish sauce is often seen by visitors as a distinctive feature of Vietnam. When it comes to their native food, Vietnamese people take great pleasure in their fish sauce, which they use in all of their meals as the "National Soul" flavor. This article will look into Vietnamese fish sauce exports as of right now, as well as market trends, the product's export orientation, the pros and disadvantages of Vietnamese fish sauce goods, and possibilities and problems in exporting fish sauce products to other countries. As a sample case study of Vietnamese fish sauce, Phu Quoc fish sauce is mentioned in the article. The research team uses the findings as a foundation to think through and suggest ways to increase the effectiveness of Vietnamese fish sauce exports.

Impacts of anti-dumping duties on firm’s performance: Evidence from listed firms in seafood industry in Vietnam

The study aims to examine the impact of the anti-dumping tax imposed by the United States under the simultaneous influence of financial factors on the performance of enterprises in the seafood export industry. The author selected data including 21 companies listed on the Vietnamese stock market in the period 2017 - 2022, and used GMM estimation technique to retest the influence of familiar factors such as lag of the firm’s performance, size, leverage, liquidity ratio, sales growth rate to the firm’s performance (measured by ROA), in addition, the paper also provides additional evidence on the impact of new factors: anti-dumping tax and export sales ratio. Research results show that (1) 6 out of 7 independent variables including , Size, Liq, g, ADr, Exp.re / Tot.re are statistically significant, (2) anti-dumping tax rate and geographic revenue structure are both recorded negative impacts on performance. The results of this study contribute academically by providing a new insight into the relationship between revenue and profit in the case of exporting to countries that apply anti-dumping tax and contribute practically by proposing some implications for foreign trade policy and corporate financial management strategy.

Export of fruits, vegetables and their products from India - A study on growth rate and instability index

The study aimed to analyze the growth rate and instability index for export of fruits, vegetables and products of fruits and vegetables from India. The present study based on the secondary data, data were collected from Agricultural and Processed Food Export Development Authority (APEDA). Compound annual growth rate analysis and cuddy della valle instability index were employed for analysis of growth rate and instability index of fruits, vegetables and products of fruits and vegetables from India. Here secondary data for fruits, vegetables and products of fruits and vegetables was collected for the period of 2006-07 to 2021-22. The results reveals that the CAGR for the export of fruits and vegetables in terms of quantity and value showed a positive and significant growth rate for potato (12.59 and 21.56%), watermelon (11.75 and 21.19%), green chilli (9.03 and 20.70%), other fresh vegetables (8.49 and 15.99%), grapes (8.18 and 18.70%), pomegranate (7.91 and 19.15%), oranges (7.30and 17.98%), garlic (7.26 and 17.61%) and other fresh fruits (7.06 and 16.54%), But mango shows negative growth rate of -5.26 per centin terms of quantity and the highest instability index showed for orangesat 75.53 and 74.42, respectively. For products of fruits and vegetables in terms of quantity and value the CAGR for the export of raisins (41.00 and 50.48%), potato (prepared and preserved) (36.85 and 40.64%), other vegetables products (betel leaves and nuts) (15.28 and 23.09%), processed fruits, juices and nuts (10.15 and 18.76%), onion (dried and powdered) (6.71 and 15.06%), processed vegetables (5.41 and 14.04%), fruits and vegetables seeds (4.79 and 16.93%), guar gum (4.73 and 8.32%), mango pulp (3.63 and 2.33%) and cucumber and gherkins (prepared and preserved) (1.03 and 8.71%). But walnuts shows negative and significant growth rate of -9.97 and -7.51per cent and the highest instability index showed for potato (prepared and preserved) and guar gum at 67.98 and 105.79, respectively. This conclude that there had been absolute growth rate due to increased fruits and vegetables production, growing international demand for fruits, vegetables and products of fruits and vegetables, competitive pricing in global market. By this India can continue to expand its presence in global market, boosting economic growth and benefiting farmers and stake holders across the agricultural value chain and reduce risk of export in future days.

What Determines Global Flows of Entrepreneurial Finance?

Economists examine foreign direct investment, which mostly constitutes flows to established firms (sometimes characterized as “multinational corporations”) that might or might not engage in truly innovative activity in the FDI target country. Conversely, finance scholars have studied the pipeline of entrepreneurial finance from limited partnerships (LPs) to venture capitalists (VCs) or private equity general partners (GPs) to portfolio firms. Few studies examine relationships between general and limited partners, and those that do often examine only the United States, or a limited number of countries in a given region. This paper uses a novel dataset (LP Source) to examine secular trends in cross-national flows from the LP to the GP (in the form of various investment funds) to the portfolio firm. We find evidence for “home bias” and demonstrate that cross-border flows are affected by GDP per capita, export orientation, and country-level measures of the entrepreneurial environment.

Energy imports and manufacturing exports with successive oligopolies and storage

Many industrial countries run a “business model” that is based on oligopolistic export industries which strongly depend on energy imports. This paper uses an analytically tractable general equilibrium model of international trade with successive oligopolies and storage to analyze optimum trade and industrial policies for such countries. There can be over-investment in storage for strategic reasons. Despite double marginalization, there is a non-zero optimum level of market concentration for the domestic industry. The optimum import tariff is most likely positive. Subsidies to storage and reduced use of long term contracts usually raise domestic welfare.

Dynamic Competitiveness of Indonesian Commodities in Major Export Destination

This study aims to analyze the export competitiveness and market position of the agricultural, manufacturing, and mining sectors in 10 main export destination countries (China, the United States, Japan, India, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, the Netherlands, and the Philippines). This study uses secondary data sourced from UN COMTRADE for the period of 2013 – 2018. The data is categorized using a 2-digit Harmonized System (HS) classification. This study uses Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Export Product Dynamics (EPD) analysis tools. The RCA estimation results show the export competitiveness of Indonesia’s agricultural, industrial, and mining products is still weak and strong in several major export destination countries. Meanwhile, the EPD estimation shows the Indonesia’s exports of agricultural, industry, and mining commodities mostly got rising star positions in some countries but losing opportunity positions in some other countries. The following suggestions proposed are based on the research. In general, the implications of policy to improve the competitiveness of export products in the manufacturing, agriculture, and mining industries are infrastructure improvement, expansion of the export market, improvement in the quality of human resources, and employment, increasing access to finance, increasing the quality and quantity of production in processing, agriculture and mining industries, and maintaining political

Putting wage growth back on the table: Labour incorporation, political exchange, and wage-boosting policies in advanced peripheral economies

Growth model scholarship posits that wage-led growth has become increasingly difficult to achieve in advanced capitalist economies since the demise of Fordism. The constraints to the pursuit of policies compatible with wage-led growth strategies could be expected to be particularly stringent in peripheral economies, which often rely on price-sensitive exports, suppression of domestic demand, and labour disempowerment to compete in global markets. Yet, empirical experience shows that even advanced peripheral economies that adopted export-led growth strategies have successfully implemented policies intended to raise wages and expand social transfers. How to explain the emergence of such wage-boosting policies in the context of advanced peripheral, export-oriented economies? Drawing on the cases of Israel, Poland, and Spain since the Great Recession, we identify one common mechanism accounting for this unexpected outcome: the contingent political incorporation of organized labour through a cross-class political exchange in the coalition supporting a country’s growth strategy. We identify two scope conditions that enable the implementation of such policies in unlikely contexts. Domestic political instability, coupled with a contingent relaxation of prior economic constraints, leads governing parties of both left and right orientation to activate political exchange with unions, resulting in the implementation of diverse policies boosting household income. These policies also increase the role of domestic consumption as a key growth driver. Nonetheless, the depth and durability of such changes remain conditioned. The findings develop our understanding of the role of, and structural limits to, organized labour’s agency to promote wage growth in advanced peripheral economies.

Structural and Dynamic Changes in International Trade in Agricultural Products in Ukraine

The article is devoted to studying the structural and dynamic changes in international trade in agricultural products in Ukraine. The authors reveal the theoretical essence of international trade in agricultural products, considering export and import conditions in light of modern challenges. The assessment of the foreign trade regime is provided and the trends and impact of implementing the Agreement on Association between Ukraine and the EU on the development of Ukraine's foreign trade are established. It was found that, on one hand, the export orientation of raw materials to the EU crop production market has increased, while on the other hand, there remains a high import dependence on prepared food products, with a more diversified import structure. The peculiarities of key directions of Ukraine's agro-industrial market under martial law and its place in the global food security system are described. The article also examines the structure of Ukraine's trading partners, which have been revised since the beginning of the war. The peculiarities of cooperation between Ukraine and the EU in international trade in agricultural products are analysed. Ways of diversifying exports and increasing the profitability of foreign trade in agricultural products from Ukraine in the EU market are suggested.

Conzinc Riotinto of Australia — Foreign Ownership and Control

Conzinc Riotinto of Australia Limited (CRA) was the largest mining group in Australia after BHP. It had a major influence upon the post‐Second World War mining sector and Australian economy. It was responsible for some of the country's largest resource developments, establishing an integrated aluminium industry, playing the principal role in the development of Australia's iron ore export industry, and developing a major copper deposit on the Island of Bougainville. CRA was established in 1962 as the Australian arm of the British mining group, Rio Tinto Zinc Corporation Limited (RTZ), formed through the merger of The Rio Tinto Company Limited with The Consolidated Zinc Limited. Consolidated Zinc was also London‐listed, although with a deep Australian heritage based on its involvement in lead and zinc mining at Broken Hill. CRA's status as a foreign‐owned and controlled company had a major influence upon its corporate priorities for the two decades following its formation. The company's foreign majority ownership restricted its business opportunities, particularly during the 1970s. However, as early as the mid‐1960s, anti‐CRA sentiment was evident from politicians, public servants, Australian mining competitors and, to some extent, the public. CRA's standing as “un‐Australian” was viewed by company management as an impediment to attracting and retaining quality employees. These factors led CRA to engage with successive Commonwealth Governments to attempt to secure arrangements more accommodating to its business interests. This involved considerations as diverse as the takeover of the London parent company — to facilitate greater Australian shareholding in the Australian entity — through to the restructuring of CRA's interests in a new majority‐owned Australian company. Ultimately, CRA was instrumental in changing foreign investment legislation, providing a pathway for it as a foreign‐owned company to move to an Australianised or majority Australian‐owned status. With this, CRA had an ability to participate in resource investments on terms similar to those for Australian companies. CRA gained naturalising status in 1979 and, in 1986, that of a naturalised or Australianised company. Differences in perspectives relating to strategic direction and financial management between the parent company in London and CRA in Melbourne, brought to the fore issues of control. The situation became so serious that it resulted in the departure of the chairman and chief executive on the eve of CRA achieving Australian majority‐owned status. The events had a later influence on the formation of a dual‐listed company structure in 1996. Through this structure, RTZ regained majority share ownership of the assets previously held in the Australian company. CRA lost its naturalised status and its identity as Australia's then second largest Australian mining company.

Analysis of the Potential Impact of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China

Excessive carbon dioxide emissions are one of the major causes of global warming. To effectively respond to global climate change, all countries are making efforts and changes in this regard. As one of the largest carbon markets in the world, the European Union (EU), to better respond to the Paris Agreement, introduced the European Green Deal and the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The mechanism requires that high-carbon products imported into or exported from the EU pay a corresponding amount of tax or refund the corresponding carbon emission allowances. The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is essentially a carbon tariff, has also had a significant impact on the Chinese market. The more carbon-intensive steel industry has been the first to be hit, affecting the competitiveness of the industry's exports in the EU to a certain extent, while also increasing compliance costs for the development of other related industries. Chinese enterprises should strengthen innovation and research, and actively introduce low-carbon technologies. At the same time, China should continue to improve its own voice and accelerate the construction of the national carbon market.

ANALISIS FAKTOR - FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLUME EKSPOR KAKAO DI INDONESIA 2015 – 2019

Cocoa is one of the plantation commodities that has an important role in economic activities in Indonesia. Cocoa is also one of Indonesia's export commodities which is quite important as a foreign exchange earner besides oil and gas. Indonesia is the world's third largest cocoa producer and exporter after Ghana and Ivory Coast. The development of cocoa exports in 2015-2019 has a fairly volatile pattern. In 2015 the total export volume of cocoa was 105.15 thousand tons and in 2017 it increased by 270.17 thousand tons. The results of this study indicate that partially the US Dollar exchange rate variable has a negative and significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. The price variable has a positive and significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019 and the variable amount of cocoa production has no effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. Simultaneously the US Dollar exchange rate, price and amount of cocoa production have a significant effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019 and the variable amount of cocoa production has no effect on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia 2015-2019. This analysis shows that the variable that has the dominant influence on the volume of cocoa exports in Indonesia from 2015-2019 is the price variable.

Processing export and firms’ social security contributions in China: The role of supply chain pressure

This paper investigates the effects of processing export on firms’ social security contributions. A consistent pattern emerges that processing exporters in China exhibit higher actual contributions relative to ordinary exporters. This finding is intriguing, as processing exporters have been found to be inferior on various margins, such as wages and productivity. We propose and test a potential mechanism from a labor standard perspective, supply chain pressure, where processing exporters are compelled by downstream importers to adhere to certain codes of conduct in order to avoid reputation damages. We discuss endogeneity problems arising from various sources that may affect the validity of the proposed mechanism, and adopt instrumental variable estimation to address any unobserved concerns. Moreover, despite the unquantifiability of supply chain pressure, supportive evidence is found as pure-assemblers, processing exporters in high-exposure industries, those with destinations in developed countries and those in export-intensive regions exhibit relatively higher contributions, as predicted by the theory. These findings also negate competing hypotheses from the traditional labor cost perspective. Furthermore, non-state-owned, small, and low-paying firms are more susceptible to supply chain pressure than their respective counterparts. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the behavioral differences between processing and ordinary exporters.