Explanatory Hypotheses Research Articles

From Asylum to Post‐Arrival Geographies: Syrian and Iraqi Refugees in Belgium

AbstractThis paper investigates the spatial patterns of concentration and dispersal of recently arrived refugees from Syria and Iraq in a country without stringent dispersal policies, Belgium. In order to capture both the mobility and the immobility of refugees, we propose the term “post‐arrival geographies” for these patterns. Drawing on data from the national population register, we demonstrate that many refugees move to urban and suburban locations after they have been granted refugee status. Through a comparison with the geographies of the Belgian asylum system and with the spatial distribution of Syrians and Iraqis who arrived earlier, we also explore some explanatory hypotheses for these post‐arrival geographies. The observation that dispersal takes place in Belgium in an indirect way ‐ through the location of asylum centres and local reception structures – makes us endorse pleas for more attention to institutional contexts and local settings in refugee studies.

Profile of Fork-Tailed Bush Katydid (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) Feeding on Fruit of Clementine Mandarins.

Sweet oranges (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck Sapindales: Rutaceae) dominated commercial citrus production in California until recently when there has been a shift to mandarins, mostly Citrus reticulata (Blanco) mandarins and Citrus clementina (hort. ex Tanaka) clementines. Past analyses of commercial field scouting and harvest data indicated that fork-tailed bush katydids (Scudderia furcata Brunner von Wattenwyl), a major pest in oranges, are present in clementine groves, but that fruit scarring attributed to katydids is rare. Conversely, jagged or web-like scarring attributed to caterpillars was more prevalent than expected. We used two field experiments in four representative cultivars of clementines to test four explanatory hypotheses for this observation: 1) katydids do not feed on clementine fruit, 2) damaged clementine fruit recover, 3) damaged clementine fruit preferentially abscise, and 4) katydid scars on clementine fruit have a different, undocumented morphology, not recognized as katydid damage. We find support for the latter two hypotheses. Katydids fed readily on the clementine fruit of all cultivars tested, chewing irregular holes that developed into jagged or web-like scars of a range of shapes and often led to splitting and abscission of maturing fruit. The katydid scars often more closely resembled chewing caterpillar damage than the round katydid scars in oranges, suggesting that katydid damage is being misclassified in clementines. The resistance documented in some other mandarins was not observed. Katydids are clearly a frugivorous pest causing previously unrecognized scarring in clementines.

An explanation of the pathogenesis of several autoimmune diseases in immuno-compromised individuals.

Some pathogen infections and immune system deficiencies have been linked to a few autoimmune diseases. However, the pathogenesis of most autoimmune diseases is unknown. An explanatory hypothesis for the pathogenesis of infection-initiated autoimmune diseases is provided. Virulent pathogen infections create extensive pathogen antigens that frequently require antibodies. These antibodies create extensive antigen-antibody immune complexes, which some immuno-compromised individuals will not adequately eliminate. This will cause inflammatory type III hypersensitivity symptoms, including protease releases that destroy epithelium, mesothelium and endothelium basement membranes, express new immunogenic antigens from previously sequestered basement membrane constituents, and ultimately induce new autoantibodies. This can continue after the infection ends, if the first wave of protease attacks on basement membranes induces new autoantibodies that cause new uncleared antigen-antibody immune complexes and type III hypersensitivity reactions. The secreted proteases and other enzymes will have preferred substrates and these proteases or other enzymes by themselves, or by their processed protein substrates, can express immunogenic antigens that induce new autoantibodies and initiate various autoimmune diseases. In summary, several autoimmune diseases can be initiated in immuno-compromised individuals during extensive pathogen infections, if these individuals have two immune problems: (a) slow or weak initial immune responses that result in a reliance on antibodies and (b) an inability to eliminate the resulting antigen-antibody immune complexes by phagocytosis. These two immune problems and the resulting immune system type III hypersensitivity reaction can explain the causation of several autoimmune diseases, including the most common and the rarest autoimmune diseases, both their differences and their similarities.

Why are supercentenarians so frequently found in French Overseas Departments? The cases of Guadeloupe and Martinique

Many more cases of supercentenarians are observed in the French Départements d’Outre-Mer (DOM) than in metropolitan France. A first possible explanation is that the standard French protocol for validating age does not sufficiently cover DOMs. However, if additional checks can confirm the verity of this phenomenon, forming explanatory hypotheses can be relevant and quite interesting. Thanks to an INED research funding, a special protocol of deep age checking has been established to be applied to the two DOMs where the phenomenon is the most pronounced: Guadeloupe and Martinique. First results not only show that combining several additional checks does not leave much room for further doubting the ages of supercentenarians but they also support some arguments in favor of a possible fundamental explanation: genetic selection due to the extreme severity of mortality inflicted on their slave ancestors.

Two explanatory hypotheses for the generation of lightning and ball-lightning phenomena

In the paper is presented a possible explanation of the initiation of the lightning phenomenon, by the conclusion that the gamma-ray glows which precede and cause the lightning strikes, having low energy, are generated by collisions of accelerated electrons at non-relativistic speeds (v<<c) and on short distances with air molecules, by the converting of infrared and visible radiation photons into ionizing (X, γ) quanta inside the vibrated/excited electrons considered in a vortexial model, these ionizing quanta generating more free electrons and ionized discharge channels with lower electric resistance, by the repetition of the phenomenon, which explains the discharge streamers specific to weak initiatory flashes with durations of 0.5÷2 μs and peak VHF powers of 0.09 W÷0.64 W. Regarding the ball lightning phenomenon, the fibrillary black ball-lightning is explained by the hypothesis that the annular B-field generated by the normal lightning generates positively ionized ozone molecules and quasi-annular chains of N-O+ linked by neutral atoms of oxygen, which attracts thereafter neutral molecules of O2 , N2 and H2 O- forming atomic fibrils with the central chain in the form: O- -O+ -O=O- -O+ -O or/and -N-ONO=ONO+ O- which explain the lifetime of the BL by the additional known conclusion that the plasmatic sphere forming the BL is enveloped by a layer of neutral molecules generating a superficial tension σ.

Effect of Promotion and Price on Customers' Purchase Interests at PT Sumber Cipta Multiniaga, South Jakarta Branch

This study aims to determine the effect of promotion and price on customer buying interest at PT. Sumber Cipta Multiniaga South Jakarta Branch. The method uses explanatory research and hypothesis testing with survey techniques, by distributing questionnaires using a saturated sampling technique of 100 respondents. The analytical tool used is descriptive and verification analysis or inverential with the test instruments and classical assumptions. The statistical analysis uses multiple regression tests, correlation coefficient values, coefficient of determination and hypothesis testing. The results of the study are promotion and a significant positive effect with a correlation of 0.576 and determination of 33.2%. Hypothesis testing obtained ρ value 0,000 &lt;0.05. Price has a positive and significant effect on customer buying interest, with a correlation value of 0.645 and a determination of 41.6%. Hypothesis testing obtained ρ value 0,000 &lt;0.05. Promotion and price simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on customer buying interest with a correlation value of 0.695 and a determination of 48.3% while the remaining 53.1% is influenced by other factors not examined. Hypothesis testing obtained ρ value 0,000 &lt;0.05.This study aims to determine the effect of promotion and price on customer buying interest at PT. Sumber Cipta Multiniaga South Jakarta Branch. The method uses explanatory research and hypothesis testing with survey techniques, by distributing questionnaires using a saturated sampling technique of 100 respondents. The analytical tool used is descriptive and verification analysis or inverential with the test instruments and classical assumptions. The statistical analysis uses multiple regression tests, correlation coefficient values, coefficient of determination and hypothesis testing. The results of the study are promotion and a significant positive effect with a correlation of 0.576 and determination of 33.2%. Hypothesis testing obtained ρ value 0,000 &lt;0.05. Price has a positive and significant effect on customer buying interest, with a correlation value of 0.645 and a determination of 41.6%. Hypothesis testing obtained ρ value 0,000 &lt;0.05. Promotion and price simultaneously have a positive and significant effect on customer buying interest with a correlation value of 0.695 and a determination of 48.3% while the remaining 53.1% is influenced by other factors not examined. Hypothesis testing obtained ρ value 0,000 &lt;0.05.

The limited influence of competitive intelligence over corporate strategy in Israel: historical, organizational, conceptual, and cultural explanations

ABSTRACT Strategic intelligence in national security enjoys an elevated status. Despite past failures and current challenges, its role in analysing the strategic environment is considered crucial for practising strategy. In the business world, competitive intelligence (CI) has evolved for a similar purpose: understanding the competitive environment, as a foundation for strategy. The current article focuses on the Israeli business world, where CI’s influence on corporate strategy is limited, reflecting the broader state of CI's immature academic and professional foundations. The article provides historical, organizational, conceptual, and cultural explanatory hypotheses for this minor impact of CI in Israel, a country where national intelligence is a highly influential institution. It thus broadens the scope of traditional intelligence studies and can contribute to CI scholarship.

Diabetes and covid-19: more than the sum of two morbidities

The coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic has caused a public health emergency worldwide. Risk, severity and mortality of the disease have been associated with non-communicable chronic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus. Accumulated evidence has caused great concern in countries with high prevalence of this morbidity, such as Brazil. This text shows the picture of diabetes in Brazil, followed by epidemiological data and explanatory hypothesis for the association between diabetes and covid-19. We emphasized how the burden of these two morbidities in a middleincome country has aggravated this pandemic scenario. The comprehension of this association and biological plausibility may help face this pandemic and future challenges.

Explanatory Consolidation: From ‘Best’ to ‘Good Enough’

AbstractIn science and everyday life, we often infer that something is true because it would explain some set of facts better than any other hypothesis we can think of. But what if we have reason to believe that there is a better way to explain these facts that we just haven’t thought of? Wouldn’t that undermine our warrant for believing the best available explanation? Many philosophers have assumed that we can solve such underconsideration problems by stipulating that a hypothesis should not only be ‘the best’ explanation available; rather, it should also be ‘good enough’. Unfortunately, however, the only current suggestion for what it might mean to say that an explanation is ‘good enough’ is, well, not good enough. This paper aims to provide a better account of what is required for an explanatory hypothesis to be considered ‘good enough’. In brief, the account holds that a ‘good enough’ hypothesis is one that has gone through a process that I call explanatory consolidation, in which accumulating evidence and failed attempts to formulate better alternatives gradually make it more plausible that the explanation we currently have is better than any other that could be formulated.

Towards an understanding of the avian virome.

The last two decades have seen the rise of viromics, the study of viral communities through the detection and characterization of virus genome sequences. Here we systematically review and summarize the scope and limitations of our current understanding of avian viromes, in both domesticated and wild-bird populations. We compare this viromic work to the broader literature on avian prokaryotic microbiomes, and highlight the growing importance of structured sampling and experimental design for testing explanatory hypotheses. We provide a number of recommendations for sample collection and preliminary data analysis to guide the development of avian viromics. Avian viromes have the potential to inform disease surveillance in poultry and improve our understanding of the risk of zoonotic viruses to human health.

Diabetes and covid-19: more than the sum of two morbidities.

ABSTRACTThe coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) pandemic has caused a public health emergency worldwide. Risk, severity and mortality of the disease have been associated with non-communicable chronic diseases, such as diabetes mellitus. Accumulated evidence has caused great concern in countries with high prevalence of this morbidity, such as Brazil. This text shows the picture of diabetes in Brazil, followed by epidemiological data and explanatory hypothesis for the association between diabetes and covid-19. We emphasized how the burden of these two morbidities in a middle-income country has aggravated this pandemic scenario. The comprehension of this association and biological plausibility may help face this pandemic and future challenges.

Spatial distribution of avocado branch dieback and wilting (ABDW) vectored by ambrosia beetles in the Caribbean South America

Avocado Branch Dieback and Wilting (ABDW) was recently reported on West-Indian avocado (Persea americana var. americana) orchards in the Serrania de Perija, Colombia. This disease is caused by Bionectria pseudochroleuca and transmitted by ambrosia beetles. In this work we estimated the potential distribution of ABDW to map avocado-growing areas at risk of ABDW in Colombia and Venezuela. Disease occurrence records were obtained from pest and disease surveys undertaken during 2014–2015 period in the avocado-growing areas of the Colombian Caribbean. The correlative maximum entropy-based model (MaxEnt) algorithm was used to assess the potential distribution of ABDW in the Caribbean South America. The MaxEnt model predicted locations with potential distribution for ABDW disease in tropical dry forest biomes of Colombia and Venezuela. The largest producing avocado areas in these locations are Serrania de Perija (Colombia) and Serrania de Merida (Venezuela). Field reports from these locations confirm the presence of avocado trees with symptoms of wilting and branch dieback in association with ambrosia beetles. Isothermality, mean diurnal range in temperature and precipitation of the wettest month were the variables with the highest contribution and importance to the spatial distribution model of ABDW disease. A potential distribution map of the ABDW disease for the Caribbean South America was proposed together with an explanatory hypothesis for disease occurrence.

A Tecnologia lítica à francesa

O estudo das indústrias líticas pré-históricas foi modernizado na França há quase 40 anos, graças à sinergia da problemática paleoetnológica de André Leroi-Gourhan e dos avanços metodológicos de Jacques Tixier. Assim, da tipologia tradicional, passou-se à apreciação dos comportamentos técnicos e econômicos dos grupos humanos pré-históricos. Mais recentemente foram integradas também noções da psicologia (conhecimento e savoir-faire, natureza das intenções) que permitem um enriquecimento qualitativo e interpretativo, como a detecção de aprendizes e especialistas, a "purificação" das formas de ver e de fazer, a identificação de prioridades, além das hipóteses explicativas sobre certas mudanças. Trata-se de uma conferência realizada durante a XIX Reunião da SAB, em Teresina, em setembro 2017.

Ammonium nitrogen increases Ca uptake from non-exchangeable reservoirs by eucalypt plants

Eucalypt plants can take up calcium (Ca) from soils with nondetectable levels of exchangeable Ca2+. This suggests the operation of unknown processes capable of rendering non-exchangeable forms of the nutrient available to eucalypts. An explanatory hypothesis for this phenomenon is that soil acidification by ammonium can release Ca from Ca-oxalate and soil minerals. Therefore, the objective of this work was to study the interactions between Ca-oxalate and ammonium on Ca and N nutrition of a Eucalyptus grandis × Eucalyptus urophylla hybrid (Eucalyptus urograndis) in a soil with nondetectable exchangeable Ca2+. For this, E. urograndis seedlings (clone AEC 144) were grown in pots with soil fertilized with the combination of five Ca doses (0, 0.10, 0.20, 0.40, and 0.80 cmolc/kg) as Ca-oxalate, and five N doses (0, 25, 50, 100, and 200 mg/kg) as NH4Cl. The experiment was conducted in a greenhouse for 60 days. Two additional experiments were conducted to verify the stability of Ca-oxalate at different doses in the soil along an incubation time of 60 days and at different soil pH. E. urograndis dry matter production and Ca and N uptake were highly dependent on ammonium applied to the soil, but only slightly influenced by Ca-oxalate. When no Ca-oxalate was added, Ca from a non-exchangeable source was transferred to E. urograndis. This transfer increased with increasing ammonium supply, stabilizing at the highest N dose applied. Ca-oxalate solubilization in the soil without E. urograndis plants ranged from 62 to 94% after 60 days of soil incubation and the release of Ca from Ca-oxalate did not change as a function of pH. In general, the release of Ca from Ca-oxalate presented two behaviors: pH-independent (trial without plants) and pH/NH4+-dependent (trial with plants). This is the first report demonstrating that ammonium lead to the mobilization of non-exchangeable Ca reservoirs by E. urograndis plants cultivated in a soil with no exchangeable Ca.

Scientist's guide to developing explanatory statistical models using causal analysis principles.

Recent discussions of model selection and multimodel inference highlight a general challenge for researchers: how to convey the explanatory content of a hypothesized model or set of competing models clearly. The advice from statisticians for scientists employing multimodel inference is to develop a well-thought-out set of candidate models for comparison, though precise instructions for how to do that are typically not given. A coherent body of knowledge, which falls under the general term causal analysis, now exists for examining the explanatory scientific content of candidate models. Much of the literature on causal analysis has been recently developed, and we suspect may not be familiar to many ecologists. This body of knowledge comprises a set of graphical tools and axiomatic principles to support scientists in their endeavors to create "well-formed hypotheses," as statisticians are asking them to do. Causal analysis is complementary to methods such as structural equation modeling, which provides the means for evaluation of proposed hypotheses against data. In this paper, we summarize and illustrate a set of principles that can guide scientists in their quest to develop explanatory hypotheses for evaluation. The principles presented in this paper have the capacity to close the communication gap between statisticians, who urge scientists to develop well-thought-out coherent models, and scientists, who would like some practical advice for exactly how to do that.

Species richness, range size, and wing development in South American melanopline grasshoppers (Orthoptera, Acrididae)

1. Wing development can influence biogeographic patterns, and much debate has been focused on the ecological conditions that favour secondary wing reductions in insects. Although grasshoppers are mostly flight‐capable, brachypterism appears to be common in many species and has been typically associated with limited dispersal abilities.2. This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of biodiversity patterns in South American melanopline grassshoppers. Two different macroecological methodologies were applied: a range–diversity plots approach and generalised lineal models (GLMs). The study simultaneously considered three features (species richness, range size, and wing development) and four potentially explanatory hypotheses that can influence geographic biodiversity patterns: energy, environmental heterogeneity, seasonality, and habitat suitability hypotheses.3. These analyses of dispersal abilities and distributional data indicate a clear and consistent association between wing development and biogeographical patterns in South American melanopline grasshoppers. Brachyptery was related to small distribution sizes, whereas the opposite was true for macroptery. Melanopline species richness is best explained by all the environmental hypotheses considered in the analysis (energy, environmental heterogeneity, seasonality, and habitat suitability hypotheses), whereas geographic range size is explained by the environmental heterogeneity and seasonality hypotheses.4. Models indicate a stronger association with range size than with species richness, and it is therefore considered that range size is a key feature to elucidate the spatial patterns of biodiversity. Despite the relevance of species richness and range sizes as descriptors of macroecological and biodiversity patterns, these features are seldom investigated simultaneously.

A cyclin-dependent kinase, CDK11/p58, represses cap-dependent translation during mitosis

During mitosis, translation of most mRNAs is strongly repressed; none of the several explanatory hypotheses suggested can fully explain the molecular basis of this phenomenon. Here we report that cyclin-dependent CDK11/p58—a serine/threonine kinase abundantly expressed during M phase—represses overall translation by phosphorylating a subunit (eIF3F) of the translation factor eIF3 complex that is essential for translation initiation of most mRNAs. Ectopic expression of CDK11/p58 strongly repressed cap-dependent translation, and knockdown of CDK11/p58 nullified the translational repression during M phase. We identified the phosphorylation sites in eIF3F responsible for M phase-specific translational repression by CDK11/p58. Alanine substitutions of CDK11/p58 target sites in eIF3F nullified its effects on cell cycle-dependent translational regulation. The mechanism of translational regulation by the M phase-specific kinase, CDK11/p58, has deep evolutionary roots considering the conservation of CDK11 and its target sites on eIF3F from C. elegans to humans.

Practical methods for the morphological recognition and definitionof genera, with a comment on polychaetes (Annelida)

There are very few publications dealing with methods for the morphological recognition of genera, and how they can be defined, in comparison to those available dealing with species issues. My objective is to provide a historical review, synthesize and discuss some ideas or practical procedures about this problem. Genera are recognized because member species depict a general morphological pattern, and usually one or a few diagnostic characters separate each genus from other similar genera. Human mind detects patterns by comparative morphology and this explains why experience is extremely important in taxonomy. Analogy is also involved, because by understanding how character patterns help recognizing taxonomic groups, these patterns can be extrapolated in less well-known groups. From an historical perspective, botanists and zoologists perceived or defined genera differently with some common considerations and procedures. Genera are natural groups, size-variable and shape-conservative, that are recognized by different cultures. As explanatory hypothesis, genera are unstable and difficult to define because their contents are modified after the study of species from different localities; once planetary revisions are made, the resulting delineation is improved because variations are better understood or assimilated into current definitions. A necessary step for this improvement is the standardization of the terminology for morphologic features, but planetary revisions are the only means to reach this goal. As in other fields in systematic zoology, the recognition of genera among marine annelids (polychaetes) relied in a comparative approach, after the standardization of the terminology for body appendages. The study of larger collections with specimens from distant localities helped to clarify the morphological patterns, but their evaluation sometimes drove to contradictory conclusions, such as a widespread acceptance of cosmopolitan species. Although there are several pending issues, there has been a progressive improvement, especially after the inclusion of additional methods, but more efforts are needed for taxonomic training, and for improving the job market.

Apologetyka chrześcijaństwa w pismach G.K. Chestertona

Niniejszy artykuł jest próbą przybliżenia bogatego dorobku Chestertona na polu apologetyki i przedstawienia, jak wykazuje on wiarygodność chrześcijaństwa katolickiego. Przy pisaniu artykułu odwołano się do dorobku o. Józefa M. Bocheńskiego w dziedzinie uzasadniania dogmatu religii poprzez teorię autorytetu i hipotezy religijnej. Część pierwsza artykułu ukazuje Jezusa, a druga Kościół jako autorytety epistemiczne. Posługując się argumentami zaczerpniętymi od Chestertona, zbudowano argumenty kumulatywne, które wspierają tezę, że założyciel chrześcijaństwa i Kościół są wiarygodnymi autorytetami w zakresie teologii i moralności. W trzeciej części artykułu posłużono się teorią hipotezy religijnej Bocheńskiego. Hipotezą wyjaśniającą jest tutaj chrześcijańska nauka o grzechu pierworodnym, która jak uważa Chesterton, jest najlepszym wyjaśnieniem problemu zła w świecie. W części czwartej wskazano cechy doktryny katolickiej, świadczące o jej racjonalności.

Vertebrate palaeophysiology.

Physiology is a functional branch of the biological sciences, searching for general rules by which explanatory hypotheses are tested using experimental procedures, whereas palaeontology is a historical science dealing with the study of unique events where conclusions are drawn from congruence among independent lines of evidence. Vertebrate palaeophysiology bridges these disciplines by using experimental data obtained from extant organisms to infer physiological traits of extinct ones and to reconstruct how they evolved. The goal of this theme issue is to understand functional innovations imprinted on modern vertebrate clades, and how to infer (or 'retrodict') physiological capacities in their ancient relatives a posteriori. As such, the present collection of papers deals with different aspects of a rapidly growing field to understand innovations in: phospho-calcic metabolism, acid-base homeostasis, thermometabolism, respiratory physiology, skeletal growth, palaeopathophysiology, genome size and metabolic rate, and it concludes with a historical perspective. Sometimes, the two components (physiological mechanism and palaeobiological inference) are proposed in separate papers. Other times, the two components are integrated in a single paper. In all cases, the approach was comparative, framed in a phylogenetic context, and included rigorous statistical methods that account for evolutionary patterns and processes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Vertebrate palaeophysiology'.