Market Experts Research Articles

거시경제변동 전후 주택시장과 경매시장 간의 관계성 분석

일반적으로 부동산 매매시장과 경매시장 간에는 다양한 측면에서 긴밀한 연관관계가 있는 것으로 알려져 있다. 또한 매체에서는 경매시장이 매매시장 경기를 선도하는 주요한 변수로 언급되었다. 본 논문에서는 서브프라임 금융위기 이전의 주택시장 활황기와 이후의 주택시장 침체기 각 시기별로 주택매매시장 및 주택전세시장과 주택경매시장 간의 관계를 벡터오차수정모형(VECM; Vector Error Correction Model)을 이용하여 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 논문에서는 국내 대표적인 부동산시장이며, 시단위에서 가장 많은 경매물건이 거래되는 서울시의 아파트를 대상으로 연구를 진행하였다. 분석변수는 주택매매가격지수, 주택전세가격지수, 낙찰율, 낙찰가율을 활용하였다. 본 연구에서는 서브프라임 금융위기 발생 이전인 2002년 1월부터 2008년 12월까지를 Model 1로, 2009년 1월부터 최근 2015년 11월까지를 Model 2로 구분하여 비교분석하였다. 분석결과 경매시장의 경우 주택시장 변동에 상대적으로 덜 민감한 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 반대로, 경매시장 충격에는 주택시장이 유의미한 변동을 나타내는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는 경매시장 변화가 주택시장 변동에 선행하는 것을 의미하며 하나의 거래시장으로 경매시장이 활성화되고 있음을 나타낸다. 중앙정부에서는 경매시장의 중요성을 정확히 인지하고 가격변동추이를 면밀히 확인할 필요가 있다. 또한 투자주체들 역시 경매시장에 대한 전문성을 확보할 필요가 있다. It is known that the Real Estate Sales Market and Auction Market are closely interrelated with each other in a variety of respects and the media often mention the real estate auction market as a leading indicator of the real estate market. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationships between the housing market and auction market before and after macroeconomic fluctuations using VECM. The period from January 2002 to December 2008, which was before the financial crisis, was set as Model 1 and the period from January 2009 to November 2015, which was after the financial crisis, was set as Model 2. The results are as follows. First, the housing auction market is less sensitive to changes in the housing market than it is to fluctuations in the auction market. This means that changes in the auction market precede fluctuations in the housing market, which shows that the auction market as a trading market is activated. In this respect, public institutions need to realize the importance of the housing auction market and check trends in the housing contract price in the auction market. Also, investors need to ensure that they have expertise in the auction market.

Age management as an opportunity to manage employees effectively in the light of demographic changes

The goal of this article is to analyse the main threats and benefits that accompany the implementation of age management policy, a method that enables workers aged 45+ to be highly effective. The article presents a demographic prognosis on the changing structure of human capital in the labour market, which determines the growing importance of age management in enterprises. The text contains an analysis of the key threats arising from a lack of employer action on age management, and the benefits that may be gained from age management policy. The article also examined the inevitability of changes, which will appear in the age structure of Polish people in the labour market and in companies. These particular changes will determinate plenty of consequences, mostly for employers, because the new personnel will require a slightly different management approach. My intention is to adapt the work to the requirements of the scientific community, as well as to the needs of labour market experts and business practitioners. This is why the paradigm of radical humanism was chosen for the article.

Entrepreneurship success factors: an empirical investigation in Sri Lanka

Purpose To investigate small business success versus failure prediction variables in the emerging market of Sri Lanka. Design/methodology/approach Survey research was used to collect data in Sri Lanka with a sample size of 450 small businesses (200 failed and 250 successful) based on 10 of the 15 Lussier success versus failure prediction model variables. Findings The results reveal significant differences between all 10 successful and failed variables tested. Practical implications The findings indicate that small business owners and managers can benefit from starting their business with adequate capital, by maintaining good records with financial control, having prior business and management experience, developing a business plan, having higher levels of education, being able to staff the business, starting the business during the early stages of the product life cycle, having partners, and having marketing expertise. Originality/value This is the first major small business success versus failure study conducted in Sri Lanka. Results support the Lussier model’s validity in Sri Lanka, reinforcing its global validity and moving toward a theory; while demonstrating similarity to those in other economies. There is no accepted theory of success vs failure, thus this study is a foundation for further research and comparisons between developed countries and emerging markets.

How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.

Business Elite Competition or a Common Concern?

This article examines how mainstream news journalism reported a recent industrial crisis in Sweden (2011) and compares it with the journalistic construction of a similar crisis in the late 1970s. Analysis shows that the one-dimensional news coverage today fails to contextualize the crisis, preferring instead to report the surface drama and exalt the competitiveness of the economic elite. In this oversimplified understanding and construction of a crisis, journalism neglects certain aspects and focuses on matters relating solely to the market. The political and labor perspective highlighted in the crisis coverage of the 1970s is missing in more recent reports. The different voices discussing the causes, characteristics, consequences and solutions of crisis in the industry four decades ago have been replaced by several economic or market experts representing broadly the same perspective; a narrow business understanding of what is at stake, how a crisis can be solved as well as by whom. The class aspect, along with the democratic implications when the interests of the working class and the view of industry as an arena for labor are largely neglected by mainstream news journalism, are highlighted in the study.

Fintech and the future of securities services

Looking ahead, financial markets will continue to undergo profound changes, owing in no small part to the perpetual growth of knowledge sharing and globalisation that has helped to define the millennium years. For securities-services providers, the pace of this change will accelerate with increased consolidation, pervasive regulatory mandates, as well as greater technological innovation. Indeed, the rapid expansion of financial technology services — or fintech — will play a lead role in this ongoing evolution, as the emergence of newer, more disruptive vehicles such as blockchain streamline the business of custody, clearing, settlement and other post-trade operations as never before. Along the way, providers will find it necessary to have an increasingly multi-global as well as multi-local presence; meanwhile, resources like capital, li­quidity and collateral will continue to be closely monitored, compelling providers to be more selective while focusing on growth and market expertise. In an increasingly competitive and globalised environment, innovations such as blockchain’s decentralised master ledger could serve as a stepping stone to a far more streamlined securities-services business in the years to come.

Heterogeneous Investor Sentiment and Institutional Real Estate Investments

Commercial real estate investors differ in their sentiment due to factors such as market expertise, investment strategies and expectations about future market conditions. Focusing on the office market, we investigate whether investors with a multiasset investment focus such as pension funds or insurance companies rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors such as public REITs or private developers/owners as source of information in their investment decision‐making. Using disaggregated sentiment measures and vector autoregression (VAR) we find evidence that changes in REIT and private real estate investor sentiment lead to changes in institutional investor sentiment in the suburban office and office REIT market. Our findings suggest that institutional investors rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors to make real estate investment decisions. Our study contributes to the existing literature on sentiment in commercial real estate markets by emphasizing the heterogeneity of investor sentiment and introducing a disaggregated sentiment measure. We also contribute to the institutional herding literature.

Defining spatial housing submarkets: Exploring the case for expert delineated boundaries

Although there are numerous reasons for real estate analysts to construct spatial housing submarkets, there is little clarity about how this might best be done in practice. The existing literature offers a variety of techniques including those based on principal components analysis, cluster analysis and a range of other statistical procedures. This paper asks whether, given their market expertise and their role in disseminating information, shaping search patterns and informing bid formation, real estate agents might offer an effective but less data intensive method of submarket construction. The empirical research is based on an experiment that compares the predictive of different sets of submarket boundaries constructed by using either standard statistical methods or through consultation with real estate agents and other market analysts. The analysis draws on housing transactions data from Istanbul, Turkey. While the results do not demonstrate the outright superiority of any single method, they do suggest that expert-defined boundaries tend to perform at least as well as alternative construction techniques. Importantly, the results suggest that agent-based methods for delineating submarket boundaries might be used with a degree of confidence by real estate analysts and planners in market contexts where rich micro-datasets are not readily available. This has been one of the constraints internationally on wider adoption of submarket boundaries as an analytical tool.

Systemic liquidity risk and portfolio theory: An application to the Italian financial markets

This paper introduces a coincident indicator of systemic liquidity risk in the Italian financial markets. In order to take account of the systemic dimension of liquidity stress, standard portfolio theory is used. Three sub-indices, that reflect liquidity stress in specific market segments, are aggregated in the systemic liquidity risk indicator in the same way as individual risks are aggregated in order to quantify overall portfolio risk. The aggregation takes account of the time-varying cross-correlations between the sub-indices, using a multivariate GARCH approach. This is able to capture abrupt changes in the correlations. We evaluate the indicator on its ability to match the results of a survey conducted among financial market experts to determine the most liquidity stressful events for the Italian financial markets. The results show that the systemic liquidity risk indicator accurately identifies events characterized by high systemic risk.

How Do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about futuregovernment bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and theUnited Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondentsconsider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance-and other economicfundamentals-to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over abenchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of thefiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests thatcredible fiscal plans affect market experts' expectations and reduce the pressure onsovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play amore important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.

Expert survey on capacity markets in the US: Lessons for the EU

We present a survey of US capacity market experts with the purpose of drawing lessons for the EU. Of the respondents, 41% advised EU member states against implementing capacity markets, while the remaining were neutral or provided suggestions for improving capacity markets. Cross-border effects are currently not a concern but may become so in the future. Imports may dampen prices in a capacity market, but neighbouring markets may also experience pressure to implement a capacity market. The capacity markets in the USA were believed to have achieved their goals with respect to reliability, but in an economically inefficient manner.

Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts

Purpose– Due to the fact that studies on central bank communication in emerging countries are still scarce and there are few studies related to the influence that central bank’s perspectives about the state of the economy have on inflation expectations in emerging economies, the purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature in the following aspects: it proposes an indicator of the central bank’s perception of inflation based on the minutes of the COPOM meetings, and, it analyzes the influence of central bank communication on expert inflation expectations through such indicator.Design/methodology/approach– Due to the fact that the perception of the Central Bank of Brazil is not directly observable, it is measured through the fuzzy set theory by an indicator that captures the informational content of the minutes of the COPOM meetings. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares, the generalized method of moments and vector-autoregressive through impulse-response analysis.Findings– The findings suggest that the expectations of financial market experts react according to the content of the information provided by the central bank, i.e., announcements cause deterioration of expectations in times of instability, and reduce inflation expectations when inflation is controlled. The results also support the idea that the credibility of inflation targeting plays a key role in determining inflation expectations.Practical implications– This paper suggests a new approach on studies about central bank communication. The focus here is not on the effect of the announcements in terms of future monetary policy, but on the perception of the central bank in terms of inflation. This central bank’s perception reflects the optimistic or pessimistic view about the economic outlook and risk of inflation and this perception is considered by experts of financial markets.Originality/value– For Brazil, there are no studies about the influence of communication through the minutes of the Brazilian Monetary Policy Committee meetings on inflation expectations. The authors develop an indicator in order to measure central bank’s perception of inflation based on the minutes of COPOM meetings.

Industry analysts – how to conceptualise the distinctive new forms of IT market expertise?

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore conceptual issues arising in an empirical study of the emergence of a distinctive new form of expertise – of industry analysts and in particular the leading firm Gartner Group that exercises enormous influence over the Information Technology (IT) market. Design/methodology/approach – The paper critically reviews existing analytical frameworks and especially work from the Sociology of Professions. This has largely focused upon groups which have already succeeded in gaining wide acceptance of the effectiveness of their methods and knowledge. For emerging expert groups a key challenge is to create an audience for whom they are expert (Turner, 2001). The study contributes to a “third wave” of studies that shift the focus of enquiry from the operation of professional institutions to the conduct of expert work – and how knowledge is produced, validated and consumed. The paper draws upon an extended ethnographic study of Gartner Inc., and other industry analysts ...

Consumer and vendor perceptions of sport goods counterfeits in four counterfeit hubs

Brand manufacturers are constantly confronted with a steady consumer demand for fake products, spurred by a constant supply from emerging markets. This paper investigates two parties of participants in the sports goods counterfeit market: the consumers and vendors of fake products. Findings from interviews in China, Iran, Pakistan and Vietnam, all dynamic counterfeit hubs, show consumers’ perceived dependence on counterfeit products and highlight the vendors’ key role. Being market experts, they are perceived as proficient providers of highly sought-after products as well as supporters of the local economy, enabling employment and income. Consequently, any strategy to reduce counterfeits has to consider the particular socio-economic context of the consumers’ and intermediaries’ pivotal role.

Investors’ Expertise, Personality Traits and Susceptibility to Behavioral Biases in the Decision Making Process

The aim of this paper is to investigate the degree of susceptibility to behavioral biases (the certainty effect, the sunk cost fallacy, and mental accounting) among people of various levels of expertise in market investments and to determine whether this susceptibility is correlated with certain personality traits (impulsivity, venturesomeness, and empathy). The study included 200 participants: 100 retail investors who regularly invest in the Warsaw Stock Exchange and 100 students of the Warsaw School of Economics who are casually involved in investing. In this study, employing a survey methodology, we conducted a laboratory experiment that allowed us to isolate behavioral biases and personality traits and measure their influence on investors’ decision-making processes. The participants filled out questionnaires containing two parts: 1) three situational exercises, which assessed susceptibility to behavioral biases, and 2) the Impulsivity, Venturesomeness, Empathy Questionnaire (IVE) Questionnaire which measures three personality traits (impulsivity, venturesomeness, and empathy). Statistical analyses demonstrated that susceptibility to behavioral biases depends on the level of expertise in market investing such that expertise increases susceptibility to behavioral biases. Some personality traits influenced the participants’ likelihood of displaying these biases.

Dedicated business centers in public libraries

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to determine whether or not a dedicated business center within a public library acts as a key success factor in a public library’s services to the community entrepreneur. Design/methodology/approach – A questionnaire survey was sent to 88 public libraries with dedicated business centers, and posted to BRASS-L and BUSLIB-L, for input from public libraries without business centers. Interviews with three survey respondents and one local city official followed. Findings – Fifty-seven per cent of all respondents felt that a dedicated business center is very essential or essential to the services provided to the entrepreneurial community. The services most often offered were workshops/seminars/classes, counseling sessions by collaborative agencies and one-on-one research sessions with librarians. The majority of responding libraries collaborated with a community business agency (80 per cent). Fifty-one per cent spend between 6 and 20 hours/month on the collaboration. Research limitations/implications – Since 2007, many of the dedicated business centers in public libraries have closed or been consolidated with other sections and services of a public library. This should be further studied. Further research on librarian expertise in market and industry research is recommended. Originality/value – This study updates the business services associated with public libraries business services since the push in the late 1990s for public libraries to be more active in community economic development.

Collaborative Development of a Functional Trivalent Chromium Electroplating Process

Faraday has been working for over 20 years on the development of a functional chromium plating process from a trivalent-based electrolyte to replace hexavalent chromium plating. Hexavalent chromium plating has been used for many decades to provide hard, durable coatings with excellent wear and corrosion resistance properties. However, hexavalent chromium has come under increasing scrutiny due to the toxic nature of the bath, effects on the environment, and workers’ health. Faraday has demonstrated that the chrome coatings prepared using the FARADAYIC(R) Process have equivalent functional properties to the coatings produced with a hexavalent chromium bath. The data demonstrates equivalent or superior: 1) plating rate, 2) Knoop hardness, 3) current efficiency, 4) hydrogen embrittlement behavior, 5) adhesion, 6) corrosion resistance, 7) porosity, 8) thickness, 9) Taber Abrasion, Ball on Flat Reciprocating and Dithering wear resistance, and with no hexavalent chromium formation in the bath. The data that will be presented demonstrate the feasibility of the process and have provided the basis for further technical qualification and prototype design. Of note, due to the promise of this technology, Faraday’s team received a 2013 Presidential Green Chemistry Challenge Award. The long development time frame of 20+ years for development, testing and adoption of a new coating process is not uncommon in the aerospace industry, the primary target of Faraday’s trivalent chromium plating process. This is due, in part, to rigorous testing requirements. In addition, the development of a paradigm shifting innovation can be an arduous and lengthy process. The initial phases of this development process were conducted by Faraday under EPA SBIR funding, with some input from academic and government laboratory sources for plating chemistry development. As we presented the data at technical conferences showing the demonstration of feasibility, we began to garner interest from OEMs such as The Boeing Company and depot-level maintenance communities within the Department of Defense. Such interest is vital to furthering technology development, by better understanding the industrial and military needs with respect to testing requirements, as well as implementation restrictions. We obtained funding through a government/industry consortium, the National Center for Manufacturing Sciences, to pass some general tests that needed to be passed to show the functional performance of the coating. During this program, we determined that there are also specific tests for each application, e.g., aerospace versus automotive, and within each application, tests that are specific to each entity, e.g., from one OEM to another and the various services within the Department of Defense. These specific technical hurdles needed to be passed before additional interest, and funding, could be obtained. Furthermore, realizing that plating industry sales are made mostly through chemical vendors, we identified and partnered with a vendor, Coventya, that has the requisite market channels and expertise to sell our trivalent chromium plating process. Coventya is working with us to stabilize the bath chemistry and determine bath lifetime and reliability. We recently began working on a US Army program for an expanded testing matrix working on a fully REACH-compliant trivalent chromium plating chemistry, developed in conjunction with Coventya, that does not contain boric-acid. Acknowledgements: This study is supported by the US EPA SBIR Program (EP-D-11-044), the US Army (W911NF-11-2-0014) and private sources. The financial support of Faraday Technology, Inc. corporate R&D is also gratefully acknowledged.

Profits and perils in the antiques and collectibles market: the influence of product knowledge structures on dealer exchange outcomes

The secondary market for antiques and collectibles represents a disorganized market channel characterized by competition for supply of rare goods and retail sales arising from non-traditional channels, loose ties among channel members, and largely unregulated transactions between buyers and sellers. This study explores how knowledge structures affect dealers' abilities to turn a profit in the antiques and collectibles market. Data were obtained from in-depth interviews with eight professional antiques and collectibles dealers operating in different regions of the United States. Findings indicate that while information is widespread, its credibility can be difficult to assess without some degree of product and market knowledge. Furthermore, the findings show knowledge plays a critical and somewhat differential role in the ability of professional dealers to turn a profit. Knowledge asymmetries that create favorable conditions for profits when dealers hold the balance of informational power in the upstream acquisition of antiques and collectibles ironically reduce dealers' ability to earn profits in downstream resale of these goods. Findings support a multidimensional view of knowledge as a broader concept, based on information and product and market expertise, but deepened by experiences that lead to tacit knowledge, which can be difficult to transmit.

Creating a Professional Blog

This article provides marketing educators with a blogging activity that allows students to add to their marketing expertise as well as enhance their communication skills. Specifically, we propose an activity that incorporates the necessary steps for experiential learning to be achieved. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this activity is examined by individuals who participated in the blog activity as well as individuals who analyzed the blog contributions. The results suggest that participants perceived that this activity was effective in aiding their learning, but differences in learning effectiveness were detected based on participants’ learning style and gender.