Experimental Criminology Research Articles

Right method, right price: the economic value and associated risks of experimentation

Objectives To consider the important contribution to crime reduction policy and practice made by research in experimental criminology; possible future research priorities and their methodological implications bearing in mind the cost and associated risks of research.

The effects of sexual offender treatment on recidivism: an international meta-analysis of sound quality evaluations

Sound evaluations of sexual offender treatment are essential for an evidence-based crime policy. However, previous reviews substantially varied in their mean effects and were often based on methodologically weak primary studies. Therefore, the present study contains an update of our meta-analysis in the first issue of this journal (Losel and Schmucker Journal of Experimental Criminology, 1, 117–146, 2005). It includes more recent primary research and is restricted to comparisons with equivalent treatment and control groups and official measures of recidivism as outcome criteria. Applying a detailed search procedure which yielded more than 3000 published and unpublished documents, we identified 29 eligible comparisons containing a total of 4,939 treated and 5,448 untreated sexual offenders. The study effects were integrated using a random effects model and further analyzed with regard to treatment, offender, and methodological characteristics to identify moderator variables. All eligible comparisons evaluated psychosocial treatment (mainly cognitive behavioral programs). None of the comparisons evaluating organic treatments fulfilled the eligibility criteria. The mean effect size for sexual recidivism was smaller than in our previous meta-analysis but still statistically significant (OR = 1.41, p < .01). This equates to a difference in recidivism of 3.6 percentage points (10.1 % in treated vs. 13.7 % in untreated offenders) and a relative reduction in recidivism of 26.3 %. The significant overall effect was robust against outliers, but contained much heterogeneity. Methodological quality did not significantly influence effect sizes, but there were only a few randomized designs present. Cognitive-behavioral and multi-systemic treatment as well as studies with small samples, medium- to high-risk offenders, more individualized treatment, and good descriptive validity revealed better effects. In contrast to treatment in the community, treatment in prisons did not reveal a significant mean effect, but there were some prison studies with rather positive outcomes. Although our findings are promising, the evidence basis for sex offender treatment is not yet satisfactory. More randomized trials and high-quality quasi-experiments are needed, particularly outside North America. In addition, there is a clear need of more differentiated process and outcome evaluations that address the questions of what works with whom, in what contexts, under what conditions, with regard to what outcomes, and also why.

Brandon C. Welsh, Anthony A. Braga, and Gerben J. N. Bruinsma (ed): “Experimental criminology: prospects for advancing science and public policy”

Brandon C. Welsh, Anthony A. Braga, and Gerben J. N. Bruinsma (ed): “Experimental criminology: prospects for advancing science and public policy”

An unrepresentative sample is unrepresentative regardless of the reason: a rejoinder to Amendola and Wixted

Objective Our objective was to assess Amendola and Wixted’s (Journal of Experimental Criminology, 2015b, this issue) response to our critique of their conclusions regarding simultaneous and sequential lineups.

Experimental criminology: prospects for advancing science and public policy

Foreword Philip J. Cook Preface 1. Experimenting with crime and criminal justice Brandon C. Welsh, Anthony A. Braga and Gerben J. N. Bruinsma Part I. Experimenting with Crime: 2. Experimental tests of criminological theory Jean Marie McGloin and Kyle J. Thomas 3. Experimental neurocriminology: etiology and treatment Adrian Raine, Michael Rocque and Brandon C. Welsh 4. Computer simulation experiments and the development of criminological theory Christopher J. Sullivan 5. Experiments in guardianship research Maud van Bavel and Henk Elfers Part II. Experimenting with Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice: 6. Randomized experiments in criminology: what has been learned from long-term follow-ups? David P. Farrington and Brandon C. Welsh 7. Increasing equivalence in small sample place-based experiments: taking advantage of block randomization methods Charlotte E. Gill and David Weisburd 8. Multisite randomized trials in criminology Doris Layton MacKenzie, Janani Umamaheswar and Li-Chen Lin 9. Using regression discontinuity designs in crime research Emily G. Owens and Jens Ludwig 10. Quasi-experimentation when random assignment is not possible: observations from practical experiences in the field Anthony A. Braga 11. Systematic reviews and cost-benefit analyses: toward evidence-based crime policy Brandon C. Welsh, Peter H. van der Laan and Meghan E. Hollis Part III. Assessing Research Evidence and Future Directions: 11. Systematic reviews and cost-benefit analyses: toward evidence-based crime policy Brandon C. Welsh, Peter H. van der Laan and Meghan E. Hollis 12. Integrating experimental and observational methods to improve criminology and criminal justice policy Anthony A. Braga, Brandon C. Welsh and Gerben J. N. Bruinsma.

Does Doing Media Violence Research Make One Aggressive?

Does Doing Media Violence Research Make One Aggressive?

The growth of randomized experiments in policing: the vital few and the salience of mentoring

The population of randomized experiments in policing is used to examine co-author and mentoring relations in the professional network of scholars and assess if experimental criminology is on the path to creating the necessary social capital to promote the use of randomized controlled trials in criminology and criminal justice research. We use systematic review methods to identify the population of policing experiments. Narrative review and descriptive statistics are used to examine the growth of policing experiments over time. Social network analysis techniques are used to analyze and describe the co-authoring and mentoring connections of the scholars responsible for completing policing experiments. We find that the number of policing experiments increased substantially between 1970 and 2011. The growth in policing randomized experiments has been largely generated by a very small number of scholars who account for the bulk of policing experiments and have been very active in mentoring the next generation of experimentalists. Another important factor associated with the rise in policing experiment is the availability of federal funding. Our analysis of policing experiments suggests that the experimental criminology movement is developing the necessary human and social capital to advance the discipline of criminology. However, it is a very small network that could benefit from the addition of new members and increased training and mentoring of graduate students.

New Perspectives and Developments in Experimental Criminology

New Perspectives and Developments in Experimental Criminology

Assessing findings from the fast track study

The aim of this paper is to respond to the Commentary, "Reassessing Findings from the Fast Track Study: Problems of Methods and Analysis" provided by E. Michael Foster (Foster, this issue) to our article "Fast Track Intervention Effects on Youth Arrests and Delinquency" (Conduct Problems Prevention Research Group 2010, Journal of Experimental Criminology, 6, 131-157). Our response begins with a description of the mission and goals of the Fast Track project, and how they guided the original design of the study and continue to inform outcome analyses. Then, we respond to the Commentary's five points in the order they were raised. We agree with the Commentary that efforts to prevent crime and delinquency are of high public health significance because the costs of crime and delinquency to society are indeed enormous. We believe that rigorous, careful intervention research is needed to accumulate evidence that informs prevention programs and activities. We have appreciated the opportunity to respond to the Commentary and to clarify the procedures and results that we presented in our paper on Fast Track effects on youth arrests and delinquency. Our response has clarified the framework for the number of statistical tests made, has reiterated the randomization process, has supported our tests for site-by-intervention effects, has provided our rationale for assuming missing at random, and has clarified that the incarceration variable was not included as a covariate in the hazard analyses. We stand by our conclusion that random assignment to Fast Track had a positive impact in preventing juvenile arrests, and we echo our additional caveat that it will be essential to determine whether intervention produces any longer-term effects on adult arrests as the sample transitions into young adulthood. We also appreciate the opportunity for open scientific debate on the values and risks associated with multiple analyses in long-term prevention program designs such as Fast Track. We believe that, once collected, completed longitudinal intervention datasets should be fully used to understand the impact, process, strengths, and weaknesses of the intervention approach. We agree with the Commentary that efforts to prevent crime and delinquency are of high public health significance because the costs of crime and delinquency to society are indeed enormous. As a result, we argue that it is important to balance the need to maintain awareness and caution regarding potential risks in the design or approach that may confound interpretation of findings, in the manner raised by the Commentator, with the need for extended analyses of the available data so we can better understand over time how antisocial behavior and violence can be effectively reduced.

2874 – Lessons from the past: a historical case study on successful cooperation between official politics and mental health professionals

The recently recovered documents of the Hungarian Experimental Criminology Department that operated during the brief life of Hungarian Soviet Republic in 1919 attests to a striking example of granting a leading role to psychiatrists and psychologists in reforming law and order. Albeit it only lasted for a brief period but the case of Hungary illustrates how mental health professionals could obtain a considerable influence over official understanding of crime and the treatment of criminals. The aim of the paper is to provide a historical case study of the relationship between the medical community (knowledge creators and practitioners of psychiatry and psychology) and politicians and governmental officials. The paper will demonstrate how due to wide dissemination of medical knowledge among leading governmental personnel Hungarian authorities came to believed that although queers (people of non-normative sexual and gender behaviour) might have broken existing laws, with necessary empathy the majority of sexual “abnormals” could and should be rehabilitated into a heteronormative lifestyle. The vanguard official implementation of conceptualizing non-normative gender and sexual behaviour as curable defects of personal and societal psychological health, which was radical view at this time, offers a historical example of mental health professionals effectively shaping governmental policies.

Social and Emotional Learning in Schools: From Programs to Strategies and commentaries

Social and Emotional Learning in Schools: From Programs to Strategies and commentaries

Bullying prevention programs: the importance of peer intervention, disciplinary methods and age variations

Objectives The aim of this paper is to respond to the commentary of Peter K. Smith, Christina Salmivalli, and Helen Cowie (Journal of Experimental Criminology, 2012), who raise concerns regarding some of the findings of our systematic review and meta-analyses on the effectiveness of bullying prevention programs. They target three findings in particular: (1) the significant association of ‘Work with Peers’ with greater victimization; (2) the significant association of ‘Disciplinary Methods’ with less bullying perpetration and victimization; and (3) the age variations in effectiveness, suggesting larger effect sizes for older age students.

Insights from Ted Palmer: experimental criminology in a different era

Objectives Report insights from the career of the noted evaluation researcher, Ted Palmer, on emerging issues in correctional research and correctional treatment.

Effectiveness of school-based programs to reduce bullying: a commentary

Objectives Recent decades have seen a focus on intervention programs to reduce school bullying, in light of the severe negative consequences of such behavior. A recent meta-analysis by Ttofi and Farrington (Journal of Experimental Criminology 7: 27–56, 2011) provided encouraging findings in terms of some significant reductions in bullying and victimization achieved by many programs. They also report analyses of effect sizes associated with specific program elements and design features of the interventions. While this is an important step forward, we critique some of the strong policy implications which they draw from these latter analyses.

The problem with experimental criminology: A response to Sherman’s ‘Evidence and Liberty’

This article is a response to Sherman (2009) and argues that experimental criminology ought to clearly acknowledge the political aspect of much crime research, and expand the timeframe of research involvement in policy making if it is to bring the liberty promised. Failure to do so can lead to a fundamental misconception that experimental criminology is somehow divorced from the political realities that inscribe it, and to possible unintended consequences in the deployment of policy. The example of use of the so-called ‘stop and frisk’ crime policy in Philadelphia is used to examine Sherman’s claims.

Gold standard or fool’s gold? The pursuit of certainty in experimental criminology

This article assesses some of the claims made for experimental research in the field of rehabilitation of offenders. It suggests that both policy officials and evaluators have tended to over-invest financially and intellectually in a technocratic model of reducing reoffending that emphasizes programmes for offenders, and to under-invest in models that see the process as a complex ‘people changing’ skill. It argues that the complexity of this process renders it hard to evaluate using experimental methods of evaluation such as randomized controlled trials (RCTs). RCTs provide strong internal validity, but in complex settings offer weak external validity, making it hard to generalize from the experimental setting to other settings. The article suggests that the proper role for evaluative research in this field should be seen as building and testing middle-level theories about how best to change offenders’ behaviour.

PROTOCOL: The effects of K‐12 school enrollment interventions in developing nations

PROTOCOL: The effects of K‐12 school enrollment interventions in developing nations

Testing for Analysts’ Bias in Crime Prevention Experiments: Can We Accept Eisner’s One-tailed Test?

Eisner (Journal of Experimental Criminology, this issue, 2009) suggests that developer-led evaluations often make programs look better than independent evaluations do because the former suffer systematic biases in favor of prevention success. Yet, his proposed remedies suffer their own systematic bias, constituting a ‘one-tailed’ test of bias in only one direction. In this response we suggest that a more objective assessment of ‘analysts’ effects’ requires a ‘two-tailed’ test of bias, in which reviewers would measure indications of bias both for and against success in evaluations reported by both developers and independent evaluators. After exploring the full complexity of the distinction between developers and evaluators, we report on one case in which independent evaluations were more favorable than those of developers. We then suggest possible indicators of analysts’ biases against finding success that may characterize the work of developers who “bend over backwards” to find harm in their programs, and of independent evaluators who may seek to “get a scalp” of a developer or a program.

Evidence and liberty

Evidence and liberty are two great ideas in British history. One consequence of both ideas is experimental criminology, which applies research designs developed in Britain to matters of liberty affecting the entire world. The promise of experimental criminology is to generate better evidence about how to increase liberty. The crucial challenge to experimental criminology is the means by which research results, even when accepted as true, may be translated into widespread practice. Two models for applying experimental research are possible. One is `bottom—up discretion', in which crime victims, police, judges and probation officers and others take experimental results into account when making their decisions one case at a time. Another model is `top—down guidance', in which either Ministers or an independent evidence-assessment agency like `NICE'—the National Institute of Health and Clinical Excellence—appoint committees of practitioners and researchers to develop succinct operational guidance based upon systematic reviews of experimental evidence. Bottom—up discretion will grow steadily from the sheer persistence of criminologists and practitioners doing experiments. Liberty could be advanced much faster by top—down guidance, however, if government chose to invest in `prospective meta-analysis' a method of multi-site randomized trials that would assess generalizability of policy effects as well as their magnitude and cost-effectiveness.

Simulated experiments and their potential role in criminology and criminal justice

The use of computational simulations in the field of criminology and criminal justice is growing rapidly (Gunderson and Brown 2000; Brantingham and Brantingham 2004; Liu et al. 2005; Wang 2005; Eck and Liu 2008). Some criminologists emphasize the importance of simulation methods for strengthening and elaborating theory (Brantingham and Brantingham 2004; Eck 2005; Groff 2007b), others focus on the use of simulation as a policy evaluation tool (Perez and Dray 2005). Groff (2007a), for example, created a society and then systematically varied specific conditions under which that society operated (e.g., average time spent away from home and the spatio-temporal constraints on routine activity spaces) to assess how varying different components of routine activity theory might variously impact on street robbery outcomes. This Special Issue of the Journal of Experimental Criminology takes stock of how simulation methodologies are currently used and thought about in the field of criminology and criminal justice. We have assembled a collection of seven papers that together provide a snapshot of the issues and complexities of applying computer simulation to criminology and criminal justice. Our introductory comments seek to introduce the reader to different types of simulation models, highlight the complexities encountered in building robust models, and situate the application of computer simulation within the broader spectrum of experimental criminology. Outside of criminology, researchers have discussed the potential to conduct experiments using ‘virtual’ places, people or situations for some time (Dowling 1999; Berk et al. 2000). Related disciplines such as economics (Schelling 1971; Tesfatsion 2000; Wilhite 2001; Tesfatsion 2002), sociology (Epstein et al. 2001; Macy and Willer 2002; Moss and Edmonds 2005), and geography (Parker et al. 2003; Brown et al. 2004) have conducted such experiments. J Exp Criminol (2008) 4:187–193 DOI 10.1007/s11292-008-9058-0