Inflation Experience Research Articles

Prices, markups and wages: inflation and its distributive consequences in Spain, 2021-2023

This article analyses the recent inflationary experience in Spain (2021-2023), focusing on the functional income distribution, the evolution of markups and real wages, and the economic policies implemented. We rely on the conflict theory of inflation and touch upon recent debates on of sellers' inflation. Using the Observatory of Firms’ Margins, we confirm an increase in aggregate markups. Nevertheless, the main factor explaining price increases is firms' pass-through of higher input costs to protect their profits. The direct effect of markup increases has been quantitatively less important, and that of unit labour costs negligible. Therefore, inflation has had huge distributional consequences and there is space for non-inflationary wage increases. While fiscal and regulatory measures have effectively curbed the inflation rate having an expansive effect, restrictive monetary policy is inappropriate and costly.

ARMA-Based Inflation Forecasting Under the Inflation Targeting Framework in Sri Lanka

Inflation targeting has been introduced as one of the monetary policy framework since the end of the 1990s. Forecasting inflation under the inflation-targeting monetary policy framework is also expected to improve with superior performance by constantly feeding updated information into the forecasting process, considering the domestic and global market conditions and developments. Literature evidence that inflation forecasting under inflation targeting is a challenging task with risk and uncertainty that are not easy to capture even in the latest modeling techniques. Inflation-targeting monetary policy was adopted by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka after the enactment of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka Act with effect from 15.09.2023. This study examines inflation forecasting under the inflation-targeting monetary policy in Sri Lanka implemented with a clear mandate assigned in the agreement for a flexible inflation targeting framework to guide the market and inflation expectations. Automatic ARIMA forecasting techniques are employed to forecast inflation using two series of price indices with different base years from 2016M01 to 2026M12, and 2022M01 to 2026 M12 including 30 months as forecasting length. According to the findings, inflation forecasting is in line with the 5 percent targeted level with a 3 percent margin to fluctuate for both sides subject to the upside and downside risk factors. Accordingly, Inflation forecasting is within the inflation projections indicated under the inflation fan chart. It further suggests that inflation has been gradually stable in SL compared to the recently elevated inflation experience. Therefore, inflation targeting and projections can be used to shape and guide market expectations to facilitate decision-making in forward looking policies toward achieving and maintaining domestic price stability, which is the primary objective of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

Discussion of “Understanding the International Rise and Fall of Inflation Since 2020”

This discussion comments on the ambitious paper, "Understanding the International Rise and Fall of Inflation Since 2020," by Mai Chi Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra. The strengths of the DGLM paper are manifest. There is much to learn from it, both about the commonalities of the inflation experiences of this large group of important countries and their differences, and I draw some lessons and policy implications. I will suggest that one could have learned even more if the authors had devoted some of their effort to comparing the recent global inflation episode to earlier experiences, and if they had related their empirical specification and results to predictions of models with search frictions.

Cross-Country Analysis of Inflation Experiences and Homeownership: A Qualitative Review

This qualitative literature review examines the relationship between inflation experiences and homeownership across countries. Drawing on a synthesis of existing research, the review explores how historical inflation contexts influence individuals' decisions to invest in real estate. Findings indicate that periods of high inflation often motivate individuals to view homeownership as a hedge against inflationary pressures, particularly in economies with volatile economic conditions. Institutional factors, such as mortgage market structures and housing policies, play a crucial role in shaping this relationship, influencing overall homeownership rates across different regions. Immigrant populations bring unique perspectives, as their housing decisions in host countries are influenced by inflation experiences in their countries of origin. The review highlights methodological diversity and calls for more longitudinal and cross-country studies to enhance the robustness and generalizability of findings. Addressing these dynamics can provide insights into effective policy interventions aimed at promoting sustainable housing markets globally.

How does inflation propagate among CPI components? Evidence from the euro area

This study employs a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model to investigate infla- tion propagation and spillovers among twelve major Consumer Price Index (CPI) components across eleven euro area countries from 1999 to 2023. We uncover empirical regularities in the transmission channels of inflation, noting Transport and Clothing and Footwear as primary shock transmitters, whereas Communi- cation, Alcohol and Tobacco consistently absorb shocks. These insights, consistent across various contexts and countries, contribute to understanding inflation persistence and households’ inflation experiences in the Euro area.

Mortgage choice and inflation experiences in the Eurozone

In the Eurozone, households’ mortgage preferences vary widely, both within and across countries. This persistent heterogeneity in the choice between an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) and a fixed rate mortgage (FRM) two decades after introducing a common currency is a puzzle. We argue that these patterns relate to the long-lasting effect of personal experiences of high-inflation periods. Analysing rich household data across 9 countries, we show that higher lifetime experienced inflation predicts significantly lower probability of holding an FRM: a 1 log-point increase in experienced inflation predicts a 71% decrease in the odds of holding an FRM. We relate our findings to existing theories on household mortgage risk management and argue that Eurozone prepayment penalties heighten the ‘inflation risk’ associated with FRMs. We also find that past personal inflation experiences are associated to risk aversion: households with histories of high and volatile inflation report lower willingness to take financial risk.

Rent or Buy? Inflation Experiences and Homeownership within and across Countries

ABSTRACTWe show that past inflation experiences strongly predict homeownership within and across countries. First, we collect novel survey data, which reveal inflation protection to be a key motivation for homeownership, especially after high inflation experiences. Second, using household data from 22 European countries, we find that higher exposure to historical inflation predicts higher homeownership rates. We estimate similar associations among immigrants to the United States who experienced different past inflation in their home countries but face the same U.S. housing market. Consistent with the experience effects model, the relationship is strongest in countries with predominantly fixed‐rate mortgages.

An Assessment of Pandemic Era Inflation, 2021–2022

This paper examines the inflationary period of 2021 to the middle of 2022 primarily by employing US data but is suggestive of the global inflation experience given important cross-border linkages. Inflation is posited as a result of buyer firms, operating across multiple, global supply chain stages, who must shift their purchases to a reduced set of supplier companies. Supply is crimped because of pandemic impacts on capacity. Supply-induced shortages cause global demands to concentrate around fewer oligopoly producers who hike markups and prices. Empirical work is directed at understanding which specific factors that affect pricing are most responsible for the experienced inflation. The paper finds that markup increases represent a larger fraction of price increases than the other price components, suggesting that profit-push is the most important cause of the global inflation experience. Industrial data show that cuts to the aggregate productive capacity of firms did occur, setting the stage for shortages to develop, particularly after demand recovered from the pandemic lockdown.

Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence

Based on indirect utility theory, we ask consumers about the change in their incomes that would be required to offset expected price changes and buy the same amounts of goods and services one year ahead in a large-scale, high-frequency survey of consumers in the US and 14 other countries. Aggregating responses across consumers provides an alternative, indirect measure of inflation expectations compared with conventional, direct measures, but with theoretically lower ex-post forecast errors. The survey responses show that indirect consumer inflation expectations vary based on age, gender, individual inflation experiences, and local shocks. Exploiting rich cross-sectional variation, inflation expectations increase by slightly more in response to gasoline price changes than implied by their expenditure share.

Living with Inflation in Argentina

Argentina has been burdened for many decades with high inflation, reaching three or even four digits in hyperinflationary periods. The recurring price spirals in Argentine history, particularly since the beginning of the current century, have affected the middle class’s perception of the present and the future, constructing what can be called an inflationary experience. Governments from across the political spectrum have failed to solve the problem, leading to the election of a radical outsider candidate as president in 2023. This article examines the ways in which the middle class in Buenos Aires copes with inflation, and how the experience of chronic inflation and crisis produces ways of coping that at the same time may generate more inflation.

Analisis Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Di Indonesia

Developing countries tend to experience inflation, countries with inflation rates of less than 3% are still achieving normal standards, while countries with high and unstable inflation experience economic instability. increase in prospects. A general and continuous decline in the price level of goods and services in a country leads to higher levels of poverty and unemployment. This study uses quantitative methods using time series data collected between 2016 and 2020 and statistical calculations using SPSS. The results showed that the inflation rate was 3.532> t table 2.306 and the significance level was 0.039 < . 0.05, which means that inflation affects Indonesia's economic growth / Growth Domestic Product (GDP).

Convergence Trends in Euro Economies: Financial Crisis Recovery and the COVID-19 Pandemic

The configurative comparative method, Dynamic Pattern Synthesis (DPS) is used to replicate previous research into the impact of the euro on economic convergence. The DPS method ensures a forensic examination of the diverse variable patterns that influence cluster memberships. As with previous research conclusions, there are multiple patterns of convergence and divergence. Consistent clusters across the time periods compared are Germany, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Ireland; Slovakia and Estonia; Italy, Spain, and Slovenia; and Portugal and Greece. The variable patterns most likely to influence cluster definitions are differences in GDP per capita, productivity, and investment, although there are other differing variable patterns that influence specific smaller cluster memberships and the consistency of memberships over time. Externalities undermine nominal convergence. An example is the divergence of the experience of consumer inflation between 2016 and 2022. Nevertheless, some convergence in long-term interest rates is achieved. There is also divergence in the real convergence target of GDP per capita. As regards structural changes, productivity differences widen, and investment as a percentage of GDP converges during COVID-19. The theoretical implications are that the complex dynamics between collaboration, competitive markets, and global instabilities makes convergence unlikely. Real convergence, such as reducing the distribution differences of GDP per capita, is only likely to be possible over many decades, and needs considerable government interventions. Complex systems theory informs us that limits to convergence are inevitable in dynamic systems where events bring unplanned divergences.

Fear of the Dark: Inflation Experiences and Subjective Well-being

In this paper, we estimate the impact of past inflation experiences (à la Malmendier and Wachter, 2023) on people's current level of utility as revealed by their subjective well-being. Combining detailed EU-level Household Finance and Consumption Survey microdata and lifetime experienced inflation, we provide novel evidence that individual households who have experienced higher historical inflation report significantly lower current life satisfaction scores, even after controlling for a large set of socio-economic characteristics and household wealth and income levels. However, for the old EU countries sample, individual households appear to derive higher subjective well-being from modest inflation up to around 2.6%.

Crisis babies, inflation experience, and the electoral cycle evidence from Africa

Using a newly constructed dataset, this paper investigates the impact of early-life inflation experiences on political cycles in 30 African countries over the period from 1980 to 2020. We propose that central bankers who have weathered an inflation crisis during their formative years are less likely to adopt accommodative monetary policies during electoral periods. As a result, this diminishes or eliminates the occurrence of a political monetary cycle. Our empirical analysis substantiates this hypothesis. Importantly, it is not merely the presence of an inflation crisis in an African central banker's early life that matters; the intensity of these crises is a crucial determinant. Specifically, when central bankers have encountered multiple inflation crises during their childhood, political monetary cycles cease to exist.

Wage-Price Spirals

ABSTRACT: We interpret recent inflation experience through the lens of a New Keynesian model with price and wage rigidities and nonlabor inputs in inelastic supply. The model provides a natural interpretation of some features of the recent episode: an initial surge of noncore inflation, followed by a lagged response of core inflation and a further lagged, persistent response of wage inflation. The model also provides a natural way of discussing the role and the strength of wage-price spiral dynamics in price-setting models. The model interprets recent developments as symptoms of underlying supply constraints, which can be triggered by both demand and supply shocks. The immediate manifestation of these constraints is in the relative price of scarce, inelastic nonlabor inputs (including energy). The secondary effects arise because they produce a gap between lowered real wage aspirations of firms—that try to make up for higher nonlabor costs—and increased real wage aspirations of workers—caused by increased labor demand. The gap produces a wage-price spiral, which continues as long as the initial relative scarcity of nonlabor inputs persists, even though input prices are falling. In this view, the fact that nominal wage growth is currently exceeding price inflation can be given a benign interpretation, as a sign of real wages going back to trend and not necessarily as a concern of an ongoing spiral.

Measuring Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: The Effect of Guided vs Non-Guided Inflation Questions

An experiment using a representative survey of the German population shows that letting respondents report a number rather than asking them to choose from a list of predefined ranges lowers the response rate for both perceived past and expected inflation and decreases (increases) reported past (expected) inflation. Income, education, gender, objective and subjective knowledge about monetary policy, and political affiliation affect the effect's size but not its sign. East and West German respondents who were 15 or older when the Berlin Wall fell have reactions different from those who were younger at that time, which supports the ‘impressionable years’ hypothesis based on different inflation experiences.

Heterogeneous inflation and deflation experiences and savings decisions during German industrialization

Our microeconomic study of the savings behavior of 2,500 German savers in the second half of the 19th century allows us to explore the causes of individual savings decisions in an emerging economy. Inferring savers’ inflation expectations from the personal inflation experiences they made we confirm the standard interpretation of the Euler equation: The savers of our sample reduced their savings with an increase in this proxy for inflation expectation. Beyond this result, our study provides three additional insights. First, we observe a non-linear relationship between inflation experience and savings, implying that savers responded only to exceptionally high inflation (and deflation) experiences ignoring smaller fluctuations in this measure. Second, we find that savers also reacted to high deflation experiences with reducing their savings. This surprising behavior becomes reasonable when we consider that, in the second half of the 19th century, the globalization-driven decline in consumer prices was associated with an increase in nominal wages. Third, we show that it was mainly long-time female savers with above-average savings balances who adjusted their savings to changing inflation experiences.

Financial literacy and financial wellbeing: Evidence from Eastern Europe in a high inflation environment

AbstractWe analyze financial literacy regarding interest rates, inflation, and risk diversification in nine Eastern European countries based on survey data collected in the fall 2022. The percentage of individuals with an understanding of all three concepts is generally low but varies strongly among countries, from 13 percent in Romania to 47 percent in the Czech Republic. Financial illiteracy is particularly acute among those with primary or lower secondary education. Among the three concepts, inflation is what people know best in eight out of nine countries – a pattern which has emerged recently and is in contrast to other countries, where interest rate literacy is highest. Differences in lifetime inflation experience, in particular experience of high or hyperinflation, affect inflation literacy. Higher financial literacy is associated with a higher propensity to save and a lower propensity to be financially vulnerable in six out of nine countries.

Impact of COVID-19: Inflation Rate & CPI

This paper investigated in the topic of inflation under the event of COVID-19. To what extend did COVID-19 have impact on the inflation in these economies through the indexes like inflation rate and CPI. Through research it is concluded that COVID-19 had the largest impact on the US economy with an experience of high inflation, based on inflation rate and CPI. Especially areas like energy, retails, and services were impacted the most with the price of goods increasing rapidly. Similar, the EU economy also experienced a high inflation with import being restricted because of COVID lockdown and energy price rising. However, even though China experienced continuous lockdowns under the zero COVID-19 policy implementation and industries closed also consuming goods and services being put off. But China's economy still maintained a low and stable inflation from investigating in the inflation rate and CPI, with China's economy having a strong ability to self-repair.

The fallacies of central bank independence

The fallacies of central bank independence