Expenditure Switching Effect Research Articles

LAMP, informality and monetary growth rules in an emerging economy

We develop a small open economy model interacting with a rest-of-the-world bloc, containing relevant emerging economies’ features: heterogeneous agents with one household type displaying limited asset markets participation (LAMP), and an informal sector. We show that monetary growth rules are stable regardless of the level of asset market participation, i.e., unlike standard interest rate rules, they avoid the inversion of the Taylor principle. Estimation results using data from Mexico reveal that specifications with money growth rules are empirically superior and shocks are amplified by the presence of LAMP. In contrast, the informal sector acts as a buffer, lowering the variability of aggregate and formal fluctuations through an expenditure switching effect, and by providing a flexible labour market adjustment mechanism.

Low pass-through and international synchronization in general equilibrium: Reassessing vertical integration

We investigate the difficulties of the canonical open New Keynesian model to i) reproduce the observed exchange rate pass-through disconnect, i.e. a pass-through high for import prices and low for consumer prices, and ii) to generate international business cycle synchronization. The literature tackled them separately: i) strategic complementarities for exporting firms to mitigate the pass-through to consumer prices and ii) intermediate inputs trade to enhance cross-border spillovers. We prove that foreign intermediate inputs also efficiently address the pass-through dimension, but, unlike strategic complementarities, solve the exchange rate pass-through disconnect puzzle. These results carry over to the general equilibrium effects of a depreciation. Furthermore, we show analytically that both types of vertical integration weaken sharply the expenditure switching effect. This feature strengthens real synchronization in response to productivity and monetary policy shocks, but lowers it in response to private demand shocks, a point which complements the existing literature.

The spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock: Evidence from B&R countries

This paper examines the international spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock on macro and financial variables in 26 countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) from 2000 to 2019. We find that a surprise Chinese monetary tightening brings about a widening in the short-term interest rate spread, a drop in the equity price, nominal depreciation against the RMB and real depreciation, and an improvement in the trade balance, on average, across the 26 B&R countries. Moreover, substantial heterogeneous effects emerge in the responses of the foreign real exchange rate and the trade balance in different groups in terms of the 26 countries' trade weights with China, capital openness, and national income levels. Finally, all the empirical evidence reveals that the expenditure switching effect plays an important role in facilitating the international transmission of China's monetary policy shock.

Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing and Why it Matters

Abstract We analyze how firms choose the currency of invoicing and the implications of this choice for exchange rate pass-through into export prices and quantities. Using a new data set for Belgian firms, we find currency invoicing to be an active firm-level decision, shaped by the firm’s size, exposure to imported inputs, and the currency choices of its competitors. Our results show that a firm’s currency choice, in turn, has a direct causal effect on the exchange rate pass-through into prices and quantities. Moreover, the differential price response of similar firms that invoice in different currencies is large, persists beyond a one-year horizon, and gradually wanes in the long run. This results in allocative expenditure-switching effects on export quantities, which build up over time, suggesting a role for quantity adjustment frictions in addition to price stickiness. Our findings shed light on the mechanisms that make or break a dominant currency and the consequences it has for the international transmission of shocks.

Production sharing and exchange rate pass-through

This paper proposes a theoretical background for various possibilities of exchange pass-through and expenditure-switching by introducing an intermediate input sector into Rodriguez-Lopez (2011) model. I show that the degrees of exchange rate pass-through and expenditure switching depend on the shares of imported inputs in total costs. When the imported input shares are located within some range, a low but positive rate of pass-through to aggregate import prices can be derived in the model. In addition, both the size and the direction of expenditure-switching effects vary according to the imported input shares.

Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations

The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while expenditure switching is delayed by nominal rigidities and other frictions. The paper hypothesizes that the overshooting phase—observed early in the depreciation episode and driven by the balance sheet effect—is largely irrelevant for expenditure switching, which is more closely aligned with ex-post equilibrium depreciation. Given this, larger real exchange rate overshooting should signal a relatively stronger balance sheet effect. Empirical findings support this hypothesis: (i) overshooting is driven by factors associated with the balance sheet effect (high external debt, low reserves, low trade openness), (ii) overshooting-based measures of the balance sheet effect foreshadow post-depreciation output losses, and (iii) the balance sheet effect is strongest early on, while expenditure switching strengthens over the medium term.

Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations: Determinants and Consequences

The consequences of large depreciations on economic activity depend on the relative strength of the contractionary balance sheet and expansionary expenditure switching effects. However, the two operate over different time horizons: the balance sheet effect hits almost immediately, while expenditure switching is delayed by nominal rigidities and other frictions. The paper hypothesizes that the overshooting phase-observed early in the depreciation episode and driven by the balance sheet effect-is largely irrelevant for expenditure switching, which is more closely aligned with ex-post equilibrium depreciation. Given this, larger real exchange rate overshooting should signal a relatively stronger balance sheet effect. Empirical findings support this hypothesis: (i) overshooting is driven by factors associated with the balance sheet effect (high external debt, low reserves, low trade openness), (ii) overshooting-based measures of the balance sheet effect foreshadow post-depreciation output losses, and (iii) the balance sheet effect is strongest early on, while expenditure switching strengthens over the medium term.

Fiscal devaluation and economic activity in the EU

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, a fiscal devaluation (hereafter, FD), understood as a shift in taxation from labour to consumption, has been debated as a possible tool for restoring competitiveness, particularly in peripheral countries of the Eurozone. We contribute to this debate. Based on a set of panel and spatial panel models for the EU 27 over the period 1995–2014, we find that FD works, especially where economic activity is heavily subdued and in sectors more exposed on external competition. FD increases value added in exports, improves net exports, accelerates GDP and employment growth, and decelerates growth in labour costs. These effects are nonlinear; they are stronger in the members of the Eurozone and weaker in countries with either more coordinated or more centralised wage bargaining processes or more generous unemployment benefits. The magnitude of these effects is dampened by strict regulatory barriers: they are weaker in countries with higher barriers to entrepreneurship, trade and investment. Most importantly, FD is not a beggar thy neighbour policy, at least in the EU. In our sample, the aggregate demand (‘cooperative’) effect of unilateral FD, which is beneficial for neighbouring countries, outweighs by far the expenditure switching (‘competitive’) effect, which comes at the expense of other countries’ competitiveness. FD implemented in one country can benefit other countries, provided that they are strongly integrated in global value chains. These findings are robust to changes in the estimation methods, the sample composition, the set of explanatory variables and the selection of a spatial weight matrix.

No Pain, All Gain? Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Expenditure-Switching Effect

Theoretical models on the relationship between prices and exchange rates predict that the magnitude of expenditure switching affects the optimal choice of exchange rate regime. Focusing on the transmission of terms-of-trade shocks to domestic real variables we document that the magnitude of the expenditure switching effect is positively associated to the degree of exchange rate flexibility. Moreover, results show that flexible exchange rates allow for significant adjustment in relative prices, which in turn lowers the burden of adjustment on demand for domestic goods and, in some cases, facilitates a faster and more durable external adjustment process. These results, which are robust to accounting for possible non-linearities due to balance sheet effects or currency mismatches, shed new light on the shock absorbing properties of flexible exchange rates.

No Pain, All Gain? Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Expenditure-Switching Effect

Theoretical models on the relationship between prices and exchange rates predict that the magnitude of expenditure switching affects the optimal choice of exchange rate regime. Focusing on the transmission of terms-of-trade shocks to domestic real variables we document that the magnitude of the expenditure switching effect is positively associated to the degree of exchange rate flexibility. Moreover, results show that flexible exchange rates allow for significant adjustment in relative prices, which in turn lowers the burden of adjustment on demand for domestic goods and, in some cases, facilitates a faster and more durable external adjustment process. These results, which are robust to accounting for possible non-linearities due to balance sheet effects or currency mismatches, shed new light on the shock absorbing properties of flexible exchange rates.

Trade Balance Response to Shocks in Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate: Evidence from Pakistan using SVECM Approach

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks on the trade balance of Pakistan. Theseeffects are further investigated on the two broad categories of trade surplus and trade deficit sectors.Thisstudy has employed the Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM) withalongrun and short run restrictions to identify the monetary policy shocks. The results from the SVECM are consistent with the standard theoretical expectationsi.e. free from empirical puzzles.The findings have revealed that the tradebalance deteriorates to the contractionary monetary policy shocks, providing support to the expenditure switching effects of monetary policy in Pakistan. Furthermore, the effectiveness of monetarypolicyis only limited to trade surplus sectors.On the other hand, the exchange rateshocks do not support the J-Curve effects on both the aggregate as well as disaggregate level trade balance.

Collateral damage: Dollar strength and emerging markets’ growth

We document a negative relation between the strength of the U.S. dollar and emerging markets’ growth: when the dollar is strong, emerging markets’ real GDP growth decreases—and vice versa. The main transmission channel is through (i) an income effect owing to the impact of the dollar on global commodity prices, and (ii) capital/production-inputs imports. As the dollar strengthens, dollar-commodity prices fall, depressing domestic demand growth via lower dollar income, thus reducing emerging markets’ growth. Domestic demand decelerates in countries relying on importing capital/inputs for domestic production, as their cost increases when their currencies weaken, despite any expansionary expenditure-switching effect.

External shocks and exchange rate regimes in Southeast Asia: A DSGE analysis

This paper investigates the choice of the appropriate exchange rate regime in the context where corporate debt is denominated in foreign currency. To address this issue, we build a small open economy DSGE model that incorporates financial frictions and alternative currency denominations of debt. We estimate the model using data from the five individual founding members of ASEAN and compare the welfare performance of four exchange rate regimes (floating, managed floating, target zone and fixed exchange rate). We find that the flexible exchange rate welfare dominates other regimes, whether debt is denominated in domestic or foreign currency. This finding suggests that the expenditure switching effects outweigh the balance sheet ones due to the countries' degree of trade openness.

Collateral Damage: Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets’ Growth

We document that, historically, although stronger growth in the U.S. increases growth in emerging markets, U.S. dollar appreciation (depreciation) cycles - which are highly persistent - mitigate (amplify) the impact on real GDP growth in emerging markets. We argue that the main transmission channel of the latter is through an income effect: as the dollar appreciates, commodity prices fall; weaker commodity prices depress domestic demand via lower real income; real GDP in emerging markets decelerates; and vice versa. These effects hold despite any potential expenditure-switching effect resulting from the relative (to the U.S. dollar) currency depreciation of emerging market economies. We also show the negative effect on emerging markets’ growth of U.S. interest rates beyond the effects of the U.S. real exchange rate and real GDP growth. Therefore, at the time of writing, emerging markets’ growth is expected to remain subdued reflecting, intera alia, the expected persistence of the strong dollar and the anticipated increased in the U.S. interest rates.

Collateral Damage: Dollar Strength and Emerging Markets’ Growth

We document that, historically, although stronger growth in the U.S. increases growth in emerging markets, U.S. dollar appreciation (depreciation) cycles—which are highly persistent—mitigate (amplify) the impact on real GDP growth in emerging markets. We argue that the main transmission channel of the latter is through an income effect: as the dollar appreciates, commodity prices fall; weaker commodity prices depress domestic demand via lower real income; real GDP in emerging markets decelerates; and vice versa. These effects hold despite any potential expenditure-switching effect resulting from the relative (to the U.S. dollar) currency depreciation of emerging market economies. We also show the negative effect on emerging markets’ growth of U.S. interest rates beyond the effects of the U.S. real exchange rate and real GDP growth. Therefore, at the time of writing, emerging markets’ growth is expected to remain subdued reflecting, intera alia, the expected persistence of the strong dollar and the anticipated increased in the U.S. interest rates.

Optimal Monetary Policy Under a Global Dollar Standard: The Effect of Vertical Trade and Production

This paper revisits Devereux et al. (J Int Econ 71:113–132 2007) which studies trade and macroeconomic behaviour in a two-country model under a reference currency such as the dollar in US-China trade. The home country (e.g. the US) sets its export prices in dollars and so does the foreign country (e.g. China), so that the US has Local Currency Pricing (LCP) of its imports while China has Producer Currency Pricing (PCP) of its imports. We crucially modify their model by adding the large and by now well-known trade in intermediate goods. The addition implies that there is now exchange-rate pass-through via intermediate-goods markets into US import prices which thereby become to some degree PCP like China; accordingly monetary expansion in the US now produces not merely an expansion effect in both countries but also an expenditure-switching effect towards itself by lowering its exchange rate and so raising the relative US consumer prices of Chinese goods. This modification has implications for the effects of monetary policy in both countries.

China, the Dollar Peg and U.S. Monetary Policy

I examine the transmission of expansionary U.S. monetary policy in case where developing countries -- including China -- peg their currencies to the dollar. I evaluate the value of the dollar peg as a fraction of consumption that households would be willing to pay for the dollar peg to remain as well off under the dollar peg as under a flexible exchange rate. The value of the dollar peg is positive for the dollar bloc because the U.S. can no longer improve its terms of trade at the dollar bloc's expense. This provides a rationale for fixing the exchange rate. If the expenditure switching effect is weak, the peg is harmful to the U.S., providing a rationale for criticism of China's exchange rate policy.

Dynamic Scoring in Open Economies

This paper fills a gap in the literature by focusing on the degree of self-financing of tax cuts in a New Keynesian two-country model. We find that the degree of self-financing of income tax cuts is negative on impact, but it quickly becomes positive. The open-economy dimension does not matter much for the long-run degree of self-financing. This is because the main channel through which the open-economy dimension affects the results - an expenditure-switching effect stemming from exchange-rate appreciation - is not active in the new steady state, in which the economy reaches a new flexible-price equilibrium.

The Quantitative Importance of the Expenditure-Switching Effect

This paper investigates the quantitative importance of the expenditure-switching effect in three small open economies: Australia, Canada and the UK, by developing and estimating a structural sticky-price model nesting both producer currency pricing (PCP) and local currency pricing (LCP) settings. The size of the expenditure-switching effect is determined by the degree of price stickiness, the fraction of firms employing PCP versus LCP, the distribution margin, and the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods. Our estimation results suggest that the expenditure switching role of the nominal exchange rate is larger for Australia and Canada than for the UK, mainly due to the relatively smaller distribution margins in those two countries.

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