Expectations Of Future Prices Research Articles

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock-commodity correlations and its implications on optimal hedging

Motivated by previous studies documenting significant return and volatility effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the stock market, this study examines whether EPU has an effect on the dynamic conditional correlations between stock and commodity returns. Our findings point to a positive and significant effect of EPU on stock-commodity correlations with particularly stronger effects in the case of energy and industrial metals. The EPU effect is stronger during weak economic conditions, while VIX as a proxy of market uncertainty is generally found to be insignificant. Finally, we show that the EPU effect on correlations has investment implications as well, implied by a significant effect on optimal hedge ratios in commodities in order to mitigate stock market risks. Our results underscore the importance of selective hedging strategies in which risk managers base the timing and size of their hedging programs on future price expectations, conditional on the level of policy uncertainty state and prevalent economic conditions.

Hayek, Hicks, Radner and Three Equilibrium Concepts: Sequential, Temporary and Rational Expectations

Hayek was among the first to realize that for intertemporal equilibrium to obtain all agents must have correct expectations of future prices. Before comparing four categories of intertemporal, the paper explains Hayek’s distinction between correct expectations and perfect foresight. The four equilibrium concepts considered are: (1) Perfect foresight equilibrium of which the Arrow-Debreu-McKenzie (ADM) model of equilibrium with complete markets is an alternative version, (2) Radner’s sequential equilibrium with incomplete markets, (3) Hicks’s temporary equilibrium, and an extension by Bliss; (4) the Muth rational-expectations equilibrium as extended by Lucas into macroeconomics. While Hayek’s understanding closely resembles Radner’s sequential equilibrium, described by Radner as an equilibrium of plans, prices, and price expectations, Hicks’s temporary equilibrium seems to have been the natural extension of Hayek’s approach. The now dominant Lucas rational-expectations equilibrium misconceives intertemporal equilibrium, suppressing Hayek’s insights and retreating to a perfect-foresight equilibrium.

Fake Sales: A Dynamic Pricing Perspective

Some sellers display high “regular” prices, but mark down these prices the vast majority of the time, advertising the good as “on sale” or “discounted”. This note suggests a framework for understanding the practice, emphasising the role of buyer uncertainty about their future valuations for the good. We argue that so-called “regular” prices set buyers’ expectations regarding future prices, expectations that need not be tethered to the prices actually set. By manipulating upwards buyers’ expectations of future prices, the seller can increase demand for the good at the current “sale” price, increasing profits.

Price expectations in neo-Walrasian equilibrium models: Assessing the developments of Hicks’s standpoint

Depuis la fin des années soixante, la recherche en théorie de l’équilibre général est centrée sur les économies où les marchés au comptant de marchandises coexistent avec des marchés d’actifs et où les échanges suivent une logique séquentielle. L’étude des « économies séquentielles » s’est développée en suivant deux voies inspirées de Value and Capital de Hicks, mettant en évidence la dépendance des choix des agents à leurs anticipations de prix futurs. La première est la théorie de l’équilibre temporaire, dans laquelle les anticipations sont subjectives. La seconde suppose que tous les agents anticipent parfaitement les prix futurs (économies séquentielles avec anticipation parfaite). Cet article souligne que l’inclusion des anticipations parmi les déterminants de l’équilibre pose des problèmes analytiques importants dans les deux approches mentionnées. D’abord, sur la base des études des années 1970 et 1980, nous discuterons les difficultés de la théorie de l’équilibre temporaire dues à la nature subjective des anticipations individuelles. Nous examinerons ensuite les économies séquentielles avec anticipation parfaite. Après avoir illustré la notion d’équilibre sur laquelle repose l’analyse de ces économies, à savoir « l’équilibre des plans, des prix et des anticipations de prix » introduit par Radner [1972], nous démontrons, à la lumière des contributions ultérieures dans ce domaine, que, pour des configurations plausibles de l’économie, la prévision parfaite associée aux équilibres de Radner est théoriquement contestable. JEL Classification: B21; D46; D51; D84

Home value misestimation and household behavior: Evidence from China

Households often make errors when self-assessing their housing wealth. By using the Chinese Households Finance Survey, we show that Chinese urban households systematically overestimate their home value. This bias is significantly related to household consumption: a one standard deviation increase in the extent of estimation bias is associated with a 10% increase in household consumption. Our main results are robust against a variety of robustness checks, e.g., taking into account the expectations of future home price, using the interviewee's estimation as the instrumental variable for the household self-estimation, implementing the hedonic model on an external data source to assess real homevalue, etc.. Further, we show that overestimated households are more likely to take risk in financial market, and have a larger amount of immediate and conspicuous consumption. These findings have policy implications for the recent debate about property tax, indicating the unintended consequences of property tax through providing more precise information about home value.

An Empirical Analysis of Consumer Purchase Behavior of Base Products and Add-ons Given Compatibility Constraints

Despite the common practice of multiple standards in the high-technology product industry, there is a lack of knowledge on how compatibility between base products and add-ons affects consumer purchase decisions at the brand and/or standard level. We recognize the existence of compatibility constraints and develop a dynamic model in which a consumer makes periodic purchase decisions on whether to adopt/replace a base and/or an add-on product under the expectation of future price, quality, and compatibility. Dynamic and interactive inventory effects are included by allowing consumers to account for the long-term financial implications when planning to switch to a base product that is incompatible with their inventory of add-ons. Applying the model to the consumer purchase history of digital cameras and memory cards from 1998 to 2004, we demonstrate that the inventory of add-ons significantly affects the purchase of base products. This “lock-in” effect is enhanced when future prices of add-ons increase. Interestingly, it is more costly for consumers to switch from Sony to other brands than vice versa. In two policy simulations, we explore the impact of alternative compatibility policies. For example, if Sony had not created its proprietary Memory Stick, the market share of its cameras would have been reduced by 6 percentage points. This result provides important insights that leading brands and early movers should implement a proprietary standard. Data and the online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2017.1080 .

Using Market Expectations to Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Crude Oil Market

AbstractThe wide fluctuations of oil prices from 2003 to 2008 have attracted the interest of academics and policymakers. A popular view is that these fluctuations were caused by speculative bubbles due to the increased financialization of oil futures markets. This hypothesis, however, is difficult to examine since the fundamental price of oil is unobservable and, therefore, econometric evidence in favor of bubbles may actually be due to misspecified market fundamentals. In this paper, we extend two recently proposed methodologies for bubble detection that alleviate this problem by using market expectations of future prices. Both methodologies provide no evidence of speculative bubbles.

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A dynamic model of global natural gas supply

This paper presents the Dynamic Upstream Gas Model (DYNAAMO); a new, global, bottom-up model of natural gas supply. In contrast to most “static” supply-side models, which bracket resources by average cost, DYNAAMO creates a range of dynamic outputs by simulating investment and operating decisions in the upstream gas industry triggered in response to investors’ expectations of future gas prices. Industrial data from thousands of gas fields is analysed and used to build production and expenditure profiles which drive the economics of supply at field level. Using these profiles, a novel methodology for estimating supply curves is developed which incorporates the size, age and operating environment of gas fields, and treats explicitly the fiscal, abandonment, exploration and emissions costs of production. The model is validated using the US shale gas boom in the 2000s as a historic case study. It is found that the modelled market share of supply by field environment replicates the observed trend during the period 2000–2010, and that the model price response during the same period – due to lower capacity margins and the financing of new projects – is consistent with market behaviour.

Bitcoin and Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation

The drivers of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are studied within a framework based on Cagan's model of hyperinflation. In the model, the prices of the cryptocurrencies are driven by stochastic adoption and velocity shocks as well as endogenous expectations of future prices. The model is estimated with data for prices, transaction volumes, and money supplies. A majority of price fluctuations in both currencies can be attributed to shocks in adoption, velocity shocks are much less important. The money demand sensitivity to expected price changes is estimated to be larger for Bitcoin than for Ethereum, and both have higher sensitivity than fiat currencies during episodes of hyperinflation.

The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Stock-Commodity Correlations and its Implications on Optimal Hedging

Motivated by previous studies documenting significant return and volatility effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the stock market, this study examines whether EPU has an effect on the dynamic conditional correlations between stock and commodity returns. Our findings point to a positive and significant effect of EPU on stock-commodity correlations with particularly stronger effects in the case of energy and industrial metals. The EPU effect is stronger during weak economic conditions, while VIX as a proxy of market uncertainty is generally found to be insignificant. Finally, we show that the EPU effect on correlations has investment implications as well, implied by a significant effect on optimal hedge ratios in commodities in order to mitigate stock market risks. Our results underscore the importance of selective hedging strategies in which risk managers base the timing and size of their hedging programs on future price expectations, conditional on the level of policy uncertainty state and prevalent economic conditions.

Price Font Disfluency: Anchoring Effects on Future Price Expectations

Novel, unique, or otherwise disfluent fonts are often used to draw consumer attention. However, disfluent fonts may also create metacognitive processing challenges. Therefore, consumers may devote more cognitive resources to process disfluent price fonts and will consequently be more likely to accurately recall and anchor on disfluent price displays when forming their future price expectations. Three experiments demonstrate that disfluent sale prices can reduce future price expectations, while disfluent manufacturer-suggested retail prices (MSRPs) can increase future price expectations. Additionally, price recall accuracy mediates the effect. Moderation analysis demonstrates that disfluent MSRP displays are more likely to affect price-conscious and less-involved consumers.

Study on Measuring of Real Estate Speculative Bubble: Evidence from Turkey

The investor's expectation of future price increases on real estate is causing to further rise of prices. In the 1990s, Turkey’s real estate price / rental income ratio was around 10, now is between 17-20 years. On the other hand, as a result of insufficient innovation and incentive application of industry, some companies have left their core activity and moved to the consruction industry. Studies using time series analysis with Turkey’s data show that GDP growth and interest rates have a great impact on investment decisions of consruction companies. Using Turkstat, Bloomberg and Eurostat data, the empirical part of this study present the relationship between interest rate and GDP growth and consruction investments. The analysis will continue with cross-city-time-series analysis for a sample of 4 well-developed cities of turkey, in terms of construction investments. Finally, measuring the price-to-earnings ratio, the home price-to-rent ratio, the gross rental yield and the house ownership ratio will be compared to those of the metropolitan cities in Europe, whether there is a real estate bubble in Turkey or not.

Biophysical and Economic Analysis of Black Spruce Regeneration in Eastern Canada Using Global Climate Model Productivity Outputs

We explore the biophysical potential and economic attractiveness of black spruce (Picea mariana) regeneration in eastern Canada under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study integrates net primary productivity and net ecosystem productivity estimates from three major global climate models (GCMs), growth and yield equations specific to black spruce, and economic analyses to determine spatially varying investment values of black spruce regeneration—both including and excluding carbon sequestration benefits. Net present value (NPV) was used to represent financial attractiveness. It was assumed that stands would not be harvested at volumes less than 80 m3·ha−1. A baseline case with the stumpage price set to $20 m−3, stand establishment cost $500 ha−1, and the discount rate 4%, was used with wide-ranging sensitivity analyses conducted around these assumptions. These values represent the wide range of choices and outcomes possible with black spruce regeneration investments. The results indicated a latitudinal gradient in economic attractiveness, with higher forest productivity and NPVs in the southern portion of the study area; however, black spruce regeneration was not economically attractive unless regeneration costs were very low (representing something closer to a natural regeneration type scenario) and/or carbon sequestration benefits of at least $5 ton−1 CO2 were realized. In general, the optimal harvest rotation age increased with increasing carbon price by approximately 9 to 18 years. Results of this study highlight the importance of future price and yield expectations and establishment costs in evaluating forest investments.

The Imperfect-Common-Knowledge Phillips Curve: Calvo versus Rotemberg

I derive the imperfect-common-knowledge Phillips curve under the assumption of Rotemberg pricing. The curve differs from the Calvo version in one important aspect. Expectations of future relative prices impact in ation.

Modeling superior predictors for crude oil prices

A common perception in the literature is that oil price dynamics are most adequately explained by fundamental supply-and-demand factors. We use a general-to-specific approach and find that financial indicators are even more significant at modeling and predicting oil prices. We demonstrate empirically that the futures spreads level, high-yield bond spreads and PHLX Oil Service Sector (OSX) index are the best predictors of oil prices in the period February 2000–June 2013. (The OSX index is designed to track the performance of a set of companies involved in the oil services sector.) The OSX index is particularly interesting, as no study has analyzed its predictive power prior to our analysis. The relationship is intuitively meaningful, as stock prices, which strongly depend on the oil price, are determined in a market with well-informed investors that have strong incentives to gather correct market information. Moreover, the share prices serve as strong proxies or price signals, as they reflect future oil price expectations at any point of time. Furthermore, we demonstrate through an out-of-sample analysis that our most parsimonious model is superior to relevant benchmarks at forecasting oil price changes (two benchmarks were used: (1) a random walk and (2) ARIMA.2; 0; 2/, which was optimized in-sample by minimizing the Akaike information criterion). Our findings do not necessarily imply that the financial sector determines oil prices. On the contrary, we take the view that fundamental information is traceable from financial markets, and, hence, financial predictors serve as indicators for oil price fundamentals.

Tales of two islands – Lessons for EU energy policy from electricity market reforms in Britain and Ireland

Britain considers the energy-only EU Target Electricity Model (TEM) wanting in delivering the trilemma of reliability, sustainability and affordability and argues that a capacity auction with long-term contracts for new entrants is the least-cost solution compared to relying on expectations of future prices to deliver adequate generation and demand side response. The Energy Union argues against feed-in tariffs (FiTs) for renewables, pressing for premium FiTs (pFiTs), just as GB has abandoned PFiTs in favour of FiTs. This paper draws on the GB experience of Electricity Market Reform before and after the 2015 change of government, to highlight promising resolutions of the energy trilemma, and the problems that have arisen between the diagnosis of the problem and the delivery of solutions. It sets out the theory and practice of delivering capacity, energy and quality of supply, gives a brief history of GB electricity from the CEGB to its current unbundled, liberalized and privatized structure. That sheds light on the trilemma problem and discusses possible solutions. The island of Ireland Single Electricity Market reforms illustrate the problem and possible answer of how best to deliver quality of service with high intermittency.

The imperfect-common-knowledge Phillips curve: Calvo vs Rotemberg

I derive the imperfect-common-knowledge Phillips curve under the assumption of Rotemberg pricing. The curve differs from the Calvo version in one important aspect. Expectations of future relative prices impact inflation.

House Price Expectations and Mortgage Default Decisions

If mortgage borrowers default strategically, their future house price expectations should affect their present mortgage default decisions. Merging the Freddie Mac loan performance dataset with the Michigan Survey of Consumers data containing households’ subjective expectations, this paper provides direct empirical evidence on whether low (high) house price expectations will increase (decrease) default probabilities after controlling other factors. The results show strong evidence on borrowers in nonrecourse states for owner-occupied property with low debt-to-income ratio, borrowers for second home, and borrowers for investment property.

Building Productive Links between the UNFCCC and the Broader Global Climate Governance Landscape1. This article reflects and builds upon discussions at a December 2013 workshop held in Neemrana, India, sponsored by the Centre for Policy Research (New Delhi) and the Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) program of the Energy Research Centre (Cape Town). This article builds on pp. 14–19

This forum article outlines a research agenda focused on linkages between the UNFCCC and other governance arrangements that also address climate change. We take as our point of departure the recognition that the UNFCCC is no longer the sole site of global climate change governance, and thus the types of linkage across what we call the global climate governance landscape including as a central node the UNFCCC are important for thinking through how improved global responses to climate change may be pursued. The forum identifies two specific types of linkage: division-of-labor linkages and catalytic linkages. We illustrate these with some examples and raise questions we believe would be useful to pursue in future research.