Expectation Bias Research Articles

Reducing barriers to post-secondary education among former youth in care: A scoping review

Young people with child welfare experience face significant barriers in accessing and completing post-secondary education. Barriers to post-secondary education often include various system-level factors related to access to college or university, including lack of high school completion, lack of institutional knowledge and familiarity with academic culture, low educational attainment and expectation bias, first in family to attend post-secondary, and financial constraints. These barriers can have lifelong consequences for these individuals, their families, and communities, including economic, social, and legal impacts. While tuition waiver programs are interventions aimed at addressing financial considerations, additional barriers to post-secondary education for this population continue to persist. Our research team undertook a scoping review to better understand the barriers facing former youth in care (FYIC) and how tuition waiver programs can address these challenges. Particularly, the aim of this scoping review was to understand how well Canada, as a signatory on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), is achieving its commitment to addressing SDG 4, Quality Education, noting that tuition waiver programs for FYIC are a growing trend aimed at advancing SDG 4. This scoping review followed the methodology as described by Arksey and O'Malley (2005) and a total of 58 peer-reviewed articles met the inclusion criteria. These articles describe the variable requirements for acceptance into a tuition waiver program as well as the differing types of supports offered in tuition waiver programs aimed at FYIC.

51 The Minimal Effect of Depression on Cognitive Functioning when Accounting for Performance Validity

Objective:While much research has demonstrated a relationship between depression and cognitive deficits, most studies have neglected to include measurements of performance validity. The very small number of studies that have examined this relationship when accounting for performance validity have found that the relationship between depression and cognition is small or nonsignificant. The current study examined the relationship between depression (assessed through both clinical interview and self-report symptom measures) and multiple domains of cognition after accounting for noncredible performance on neuropsychological testing.Participants and Methods:Participants were veterans referred for outpatient clinical evaluation. Among other tests that varied across patients, the neuropsychological battery included: California Verbal Learning Test - second edition (CVLT-II) total immediate recall across trials 1–5, short delay free recall, and long delay free recall; Trail Making Test; FAS and Animal Fluency; Rey–Osterrieth Complex Figure Test (ROCF) copy and 3-minute delay recall; and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) categories completed, total errors, and percent perseverative errors. These tests represent domains that have previously been examined in relation to depression (e.g., memory, processing speed, executive functioning). Evaluations were conducted for clinical purposes, so that some individuals who were not administered certain tests have missing data. The first set of regression analyses (N=206) included age, sex, and education at Step 1, Beck Depression Inventory-2 (BDI-2) total score at Step 2, and pass or failure of Trial 1 of the Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) at Step 3 as predictors of performance on the 12 test indices. The second set of regression analyses (N=559) mirrored the first but with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) diagnosis at Step 2 instead.Results:In the first set of analyses, after including TOMM in the model, only the relationship between BDI-2 and verbal fluency remained significant, but did not survive Bonferroni correction (p<.004). In the second set of analyses, before including the TOMM, MDD diagnosis was significantly related only to worse performance on Trails A and CVLT-II Short and Long Delay Free Recall, with small effect sizes (rp=.06–.15). When TOMM Trial 1 was included in the model, MDD diagnosis became a nonsignificant predictor of CVLT-II Long Delay Free Recall but remained a significant predictor for Trails A and CVLT-II Short Delay Free Recall (p<.05). After Bonferroni correction (p<.004), with TOMM Trial 1 included in the model, MDD diagnosis remained a significant predictor only of CVLT-II Short Delay Free Recall, with a small effect size (rp=.17).Conclusions:After accounting for noncredible performance, there was little evidence for a relationship between depression diagnosis or symptoms and many cognitive domains. These results suggest that previously reported effects of depression on cognition are not mainly due to underlying neurological mechanisms, but rather to motivational factors. Future research could focus on the potential psychological mechanisms (e.g., negative attitudes, expectancy bias, low motivation, etc.) driving the relationship between depression and low effort on cognitive testing. If replicated, the current findings could be valuable to clinicians treating depressed individuals who have concerns about their cognitive functioning, by indicating psychoeducation and reassurance.

Understanding the Role of Expectancy, Anticipatory Anxiety, and Attention Bias in Nocebo Hyperalgesia: A Gaze-Contingent Attention Bias Modification Study

Nocebo effects in pain (nocebo hyperalgesia) have been thoroughly researched, and negative expectancies have been proposed as a key factor in causing nocebo hyperalgesia. However, little is known about the psychological mechanisms by which expectations exacerbate the perception of pain. A potential mechanism that has been proposed within wider pain research is pain-related attention. The aim of the present study was thus to explore whether attention bias (AB) to pain influenced nocebo hyperalgesia. One-hundred and thirty-four healthy participants were randomized in a 2 (AB training: towards vs away from pain) × 2 (nocebo condition: nocebo vs control) design. Pain-related AB was manipulated through a novel, partially gaze-contingent dot-probe task. Participants then completed either a nocebo instruction and conditioning paradigm or a matched control condition. Primary outcomes were measures of expectancy, anticipatory anxiety, and pain intensity completed during a nocebo test phase. Results showed that the AB manipulation was unsuccessful in inducing ABs either toward or away from pain. The nocebo paradigm induced significantly greater expectancy, anticipatory anxiety, and pain intensity for the nocebo groups compared to the control groups. In a posthoc analysis of participants with correctly induced ABs, AB towards pain amplified nocebo hyperalgesia, expectancy, and anticipatory anxiety relative to AB away from pain. The results are consistent with the expectancy model of nocebo effects and additionally identify anticipatory anxiety as an additional factor. Regarding AB, research is needed to develop reliable means to change attention sample-wide to corroborate the present findings. PerspectiveThis article explores the role of AB, expectancy, and anticipatory anxiety in nocebo hyperalgesia. The study shows that expectancy can trigger anticipatory anxiety that exacerbates nocebo hyperalgesia. Further, successful AB training towards pain heightens nocebo hyperalgesia. These findings identify candidate psychological factors to target in minimizing nocebo hyperalgesia.

Modelling decision-making biases.

Biases are a fundamental aspect of everyday life decision-making. A variety of modelling approaches have been suggested to capture decision-making biases. Statistical models are a means to describe the data, but the results are usually interpreted according to a verbal theory. This can lead to an ambiguous interpretation of the data. Mathematical cognitive models of decision-making outline the structure of the decision process with formal assumptions, providing advantages in terms of prediction, simulation, and interpretability compared to statistical models. We compare studies that used both signal detection theory and evidence accumulation models as models of decision-making biases, concluding that the latter provides a more comprehensive account of the decision-making phenomena by including response time behavior. We conclude by reviewing recent studies investigating attention and expectation biases with evidence accumulation models. Previous findings, reporting an exclusive influence of attention on the speed of evidence accumulation and prior probability on starting point, are challenged by novel results suggesting an additional effect of attention on non-decision time and prior probability on drift rate.

Overpersistence Bias in Individual Income Expectations and Its Aggregate Implications

Using microlevel data, we document systematic forecast errors in household income expectations that are related to the level of income. We show that these errors can be formalized by a modest deviation from rational expectations, where agents overestimate the persistence of their income process. We then investigate the implications of these distortions on consumption and savings behavior and find two effects. First, these distortions allow an otherwise fully optimization-based quantitative model to match the joint distribution of liquid assets and income. Second, the bias alters the distribution of marginal propensities to consume which makes government stimulus policies less effective. (JEL D84, E21, D91, E62, G51)

Spider vs. guns: expectancy and attention biases to phylogenetic threat do not extend to ontogenetic threat.

Attention bias plays an important role in specific fears and phobias. Previous studies revealed that a-priori expectancies affect attention toward neutral stimuli but not threatening stimuli. The aim of the current study was to test whether this selective influence of expectancies on attention is specific to phylogenetic threat (i.e., spiders) or whether it can be generalized to ontogenetic threat (i.e., guns). Correspondingly, we directly compared expectancy effects on attentional allocation to phylogenetically vs. ontogenetically threatening stimuli. Expectancies were manipulated by presenting a cue indicating the likelihood of the appearance of a deviant picture in a visual search array. The array included eight distractors and one neutral (phone/bird) or threatening (gun/spider) deviant picture. In a comprehensive design, we examined the effects of stimulus type (phylogenetic/ontogenetic) and visual background (white and sterile/complex and ecological). Individual differences such as intolerance of uncertainty and spider fear were also measured. Results showed that attention bias toward spiders does not extend to threatening ontogenetic stimuli (i.e., guns). Our previous findings on attention bias toward spiders were replicated and a small to medium positive correlation was found between reaction time to bird targets and pre-existing fear of spider levels. Cues were used to detect threatening as well as neutral targets on both background types, except for spider targets on a complex background, replicating previous results. A small to medium positive correlation was also found between fear of spiders and intolerance of uncertainty. Together, these results suggest that expectancy and attentional processes may differ between ontogenetic and phylogenetic threat. Importantly, the effects of expectancy on attentional allocation depend on an interaction between the type of threat (ontogenetic/phylogenetic), visual factors, and individual differences.

Women exaggerate, men downplay: Gendered endorsement of emotional dramatization stereotypes contributes to gender bias in pain expectations

The current work tested whether perceivers believe that women, relative to men, are likely to exaggerate versus downplay pain, an effect we refer to as the gender-pain exaggeration bias. The gender-pain exaggeration bias was operationalized as the extent to which perceivers believe women, relative to men, claim more pain than they feel. Across four experiments, we found that women were expected to exaggerate pain more than men and men were expected to downplay pain more than women (Studies 1–4). Further, judgments that women were more emotionally dramatizing than men contributed to this gender-pain exaggeration bias (Studies 2 and 4). We also assessed whether perceiver-level differences in endorsement of gendered emotional dramatization stereotypes (Studies 3–4) moderated this gender-pain exaggeration bias and found that endorsement of gendered emotional dramatization stereotypes moderated this bias. In sum, we document a relative gender-pain exaggeration bias wherein perceivers believe women, relative to men, to be emotionally dramatizing and therefore more likely to exaggerate versus downplay their pain. This bias may lead perceivers to interpret women's, relative to men's, pain reports as overstatements, inauthentic, or dramatized. Thus, the current work may have implications for well-documented biases in perceptions of (i.e., underestimating) and responses to (i.e., undertreating) women's pain.

The difference between ‘placebo group’ and ‘placebo control’: a case study in psychedelic microdosing

In medical trials, ‘blinding’ ensures the equal distribution of expectancy effects between treatment arms in theory; however, blinding often fails in practice. We use computational modelling to show how weak blinding, combined with positive treatment expectancy, can lead to an uneven distribution of expectancy effects. We call this ‘activated expectancy bias’ (AEB) and show that AEB can inflate estimates of treatment effects and create false positive findings. To counteract AEB, we introduce the Correct Guess Rate Curve (CGRC), a statistical tool that can estimate the outcome of a perfectly blinded trial based on data from an imperfectly blinded trial. To demonstrate the impact of AEB and the utility of the CGRC on empirical data, we re-analyzed the ‘self-blinding psychedelic microdose trial’ dataset. Results suggest that observed placebo-microdose differences are susceptible to AEB and are at risk of being false positive findings, hence, we argue that microdosing can be understood as active placebo. These results highlight the important difference between ‘trials with a placebo-control group’, i.e., when a placebo control group is formally present, and ‘placebo-controlled trials’, where patients are genuinely blind. We also present a new blinding integrity assessment tool that is compatible with CGRC and recommend its adoption.

Investigating the role of action-contingent expectancy biases in dysphoria-linked activity engagement behavioural choice

Reduced tendency to engage in potentially rewarding activities is a hallmark of depression. The present study investigated the role of future expectancy biases in depression-linked behavioural choice, in participants varying in self-reported depression symptoms (dysphoria). A novel laboratory paradigm was developed to test the hypotheses that the degree to which higher dysphoria is associated with reduced tendency to engage in a potentially rewarding activity is dependent on the presence of negative biases in the expected outcomes of activity engagement. Specifically, two types of expectancy biases were distinguished: a) the expected likelihood of a negative rather than positive outcome, and b) the expected emotional impact of either outcome. N = 176 undergraduate students with varied levels of dysphoria were given the opportunity to choose to engage in a coin-tossing game that could result in a win or loss monetary outcome in terms of charity donations, and then rated both types of expectancies. Results indicated that higher dysphoria was associated with more negative expectations concerning the likelihood of objective outcomes and the emotional impact of such outcomes, and as hypothesised, such negative expectancy biases mediated indirect associations between dysphoria and behavioural choice.

Predicting Seedstock Bull Prices: Does Information Matter?

AbstractWe investigate the role of optimism bias in bull price expectations using incentivized lab-in-the-field experiments with Alabama and Tennessee cattle producers. We develop bull price prediction tasks and reward accurate predictions. We find that the EPD information provision prevents optimism bias from contaminating price expectations in the whole sample. However, we also document that, unlike buyers, sellers are prone to unrealistic optimistic expectations, and our results reveal that optimism bias can be moderated by the type of expected progeny difference information utilized, breed characteristics, and regional differences in cattle operations. We contribute to the literature by documenting the role of behavioral biases.

Unsubstantiated use of Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors as an alternative for the treatment of depression

Unsubstantiated use of Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors as an alternative for the treatment of depression

Validation of subjective manual palpation using objective physiological recordings of the cranial rhythmic impulse during osteopathic manipulative intervention

Intermediate (IM) band physiology in skin blood flow exhibits parallels with the primary respiratory mechanism (PRM) or cranial rhythmic impulse (CRI), controversial concepts of osteopathy in the cranial field (OCF). Owing to inconsistent manual palpation results, validity of evidence of PRM/CRI activity has been questionable. We therefore tried to validate manual palpation combining instrumented tracking and algorithmic objectivation of frequencies, amplitudes, and phases. Using a standard OCF intervention, cranial vault hold (CVH), two OCF experts palpated and digitally marked CRI frequencies in 25 healthy adults. Autonomic nervous system (ANS) activity in low frequency (LF) and IM band in photoplethysmographic (PPG) forehead skin recordings was probed with momentary frequency of highest amplitude (MFHA) and wavelet amplitude spectra (WAS) in examiners and participants. Palpation errors and frequency expectation bias during CVH were analyzed for phases of MFHA and CRI. Palpated CRI frequencies (0.05–0.08 Hz) correlated highly with mean MFHA frequencies with 1:1 ratio in 77% of participants (LF-responders; 0.072 Hz) and with 2:1 ratio in 23% of participants (IM-responders; 0.147 Hz). WAS analysis in both groups revealed integer number (harmonic) waves in (very) low and IM bands in > 98% of palpated intervals. Phase analyses in participants and examiners suggested synchronization between MFHA and CRI in a subset of LF-responders. IM band physiology in forehead PPG may offer a sensible physiological correlate of palpated CRI activity. Possible coordination or synchronization effects with additional physiological signals and between examiners and participants should be investigated in future studies.

Extrapolative asset pricing

This paper studies implications of return extrapolation in a consumption-based asset pricing model. We show that return extrapolation has strong implications for the pricing kernel. The time variation in the agent's return expectations is mainly reflected in the short rate and little in return volatility and equity premium. Return extrapolation causes return volatility and equity premium to be lower than the rational counterparts. In addition to the risk premium, the equity premium can include a sentiment premium that is due to dividend expectation bias rather than return extrapolation bias. Thus, time-varying dividend (rather than return) expectation bias helps produce a volatile equity premium. These results show that return extrapolation exacerbates asset pricing puzzles and fundamental extrapolation helps resolve puzzles.

Overreaction in Expectations: Evidence and Theory

Abstract We investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The experiment allows us to control forecasters’ information sets as well as the data-generating process, so we can cleanly measure biases in beliefs. We report three facts. First, forecasts display significant overreaction to the most recent observation. Second, overreaction is stronger for less persistent processes. Third, overreaction is also stronger for longer forecast horizons. We develop a tractable model of expectations formation with costly processing of past information, which closely fits the empirical facts. We also perform additional experiments to test the mechanism of the model.

Feedback-related negativity in perfectionists: An index of performance outcome evaluation

It has been suggested that maladaptive perfectionists are more prone to concern over their performance outcomes than adaptive perfectionists. Performance outcome evaluation is reflected in the amplitude of feedback-related negativity (FRN) in brain electroencephalography (EEG). Hence, the amplitude of the FRN after receiving unfavorable feedback indicating a negative performance outcome may reflect personality characteristics. In other words, EEG could be a better marker of personality characteristics than self-report measures. However, the FRN component has not yet been investigated between different types of perfectionists. In the present study, group differences in the FRN were examined between two groups of adaptive and maladaptive perfectionists and a group of non-perfectionists during a monetary gambling task. We observed a larger FRN amplitude for adaptive perfectionists than for maladaptive perfectionists. This finding is consistent with previous reports that reward prediction error is reflected in the amplitude of the FRN. This difference in FRN could be interpreted as the pessimistic outcome expectation biases in maladaptive perfectionists.

Shifting Episodic Prediction With Online Cognitive Bias Modification: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Negative future thinking pervades emotional disorders. This hybrid efficacy-effectiveness trial tested a four-session, scalable online cognitive bias modification program for training more positive episodic prediction. 958 adults (73.3% female, 86.5% White, 83.4% from United States) were randomized to positive conditions with ambiguous future scenarios that ended positively, 50/50 conditions that ended positively or negatively, or a control condition with neutral scenarios. As hypothesized (preregistration: https://osf.io/jrst6), positive training participants improved more than control participants in negative expectancy bias (d = -0.58), positive expectancy bias (d = 0.80), and self-efficacy (d = 0.29). Positive training was also superior to 50/50 training for expectancy bias and optimism (d = 0.31). Training gains attenuated yet remained by 1-month follow-up. Unexpectedly, participants across conditions improved comparably in anxiety and depression symptoms and growth mindset. Targeting a transdiagnostic process with a scalable program may improve bias and outlook; however, further validation of outcome measures is required.

What is the weight of expectation bias in oncology trials?

What is the weight of expectation bias in oncology trials?

Will a boom be followed by crash? A new systemic risk measure based on right-tail risk.

In this study, we demonstrate that high short-term gains on the A-share market may lead to significant losses in the future and potentially cause a market catastrophe. To study the accumulation, outbreak, and cross-sector spillover process of systemic risk in the Chinese stock market, we define right-tail risk as a large rally process that may lead to left-tail losses in the future and construct a tail volatility spillover network by distinguishing between left-tail and right-tail risk. In the risk accumulation process, the market expectation bias of common shocks considerably magnifies heterogeneity risk, and in the risk outbreak and spillover processes, the greatest systemically important and systemically susceptible sectors are banking and information technology, respectively. In addition, the level of risk spillover is extremely sensitive to tail shocks and increases as tail shocks intensify. Moreover, right-tail risk has more forward-looking predictive power for left-tail risk. Apart from achieving immediate regulatory objectives, Chinese authorities must consider market expectation bias when implementing rules. Additionally, authorities want to be wary of right-tail risk, which has the potential to create serious and pervasive damage in the future if the market is allowed to be unregulated during short-term spikes.

Clinical trials of novel psychotropic agents: some caveats.

Clinical trials of novel psychotropic agents: some caveats.

Man versus Machine Learning: The Term Structure of Earnings Expectations and Conditional Biases

Abstract We introduce a real-time measure of conditional biases to firms’ earnings forecasts. The measure is defined as the difference between analysts’ expectations and a statistically optimal unbiased machine-learning benchmark. Analysts’ conditional expectations are, on average, biased upward, a bias that increases in the forecast horizon. These biases are associated with negative cross-sectional return predictability, and the short legs of many anomalies contain firms with excessively optimistic earnings forecasts. Further, managers of companies with the greatest upward-biased earnings forecasts are more likely to issue stocks. Commonly used linear earnings models do not work out-of-sample and are inferior to those analysts provide. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.