Expectation Bias Research Articles

Access to Care: Too Much or Not Enough?

Access to Care: Too Much or Not Enough?

Central Bank Transparency and Financial Market Expectations: The Case of Emerging Markets

In this paper, we study how central bank transparency influences the formation of money market expectations in emerging markets. The sample covers 25 countries for the period from January 1998 to December 2009. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias (the difference between the money market rate and the weighted expected target rate over the contract period) in money market expectations. The effect is larger for countries with no exchange rate peg and countries with low income. Second, an intermediate level of transparency is found to have the most favorable influence on money market expectations: neither complete secrecy nor complete transparency is optimal. Finally, all subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) index lead to a smaller bias in expectations, with political transparency having the largest effect.

Gambling cognition and subjective well-being as mediators between perceived stress and problem gambling: A cross-cultural study on White and Chinese problem gamblers.

This study aimed to delineate various pathways whereby cognitive and emotional vulnerabilities triggered by stress would lead to disruptive gambling. A multiple mediation framework was proposed to specify that gambling cognition and subjective well-being would mediate the influence of perceived stress on problem gambling. The cross-cultural validity of the proposed framework was examined with 132 White gamblers in Australia and 154 Chinese gamblers in China. They completed psychological scales on perceived stress, gambling expectancy bias, gambling refusal efficacy, negative affect, life satisfaction, and problem gambling. Compared to Chinese gamblers, White gamblers reported higher levels of perceived stress, gambling expectancy bias, and problem gambling as well as more pervasive negative affect and lower levels of life satisfaction. Results showed that the proposed multiple mediation framework fit the data better than two alternative plausible models. Life satisfaction and gambling refusal efficacy were two consistent mediators across White and Chinese gamblers.

Overconfidence Increases Productivity

Recent studies report that productivity increases under tournament reward structures than under piece rate reward structures. We conduct maze-solving experiments under both reward structures and reveal that overconfidence is a significant factor in increasing productivity. Specifically, subjects exhibiting progressively higher degrees of overconfidence solve more mazes. This result shows a positive aspect of overconfidence, which usually has been examined in its negative aspect as an expectation bias.

Managing financial market expectations: The role of central bank transparency and central bank communication

In this paper, we study the influence of central bank transparency and informal central bank communication on the formation of money market expectations. The sample covers nine major central banks from January 1999 to July 2007. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias in money market expectations and dampens their variation. Second, informal communications help manage financial market expectations by reducing the variation of expectations. Third, various subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) transparency index lead to a smaller bias in expectations (in particular, evaluation of policy outcome and explanation of interest rate decisions) and to a reduction in the variation of expectations (in particular, explicit prioritization of objectives and provision of information on unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances).

Gifted Girls: Gender Bias in Gifted Referrals

The goal of this mixed-methods study was to explore the effect of gender on teachers' willingness to refer students to a gifted and talented program. Teachers (N = 28) were provided with one of two profiles (i.e., female or male) describing a gifted student. Results indicated that teachers' decisions for referral to gifted programs were significantly influenced by the student's gender; teachers were much less willing to refer a female student than an identically described male student to gifted programs. Further, qualitative analysis revealed that teachers' descriptions of students and reasons for their referral decisions differed considerably based on the student's gender. Responses illustrated gender bias in teachers' perceptions, expectations, and beliefs about the profiled students. Implications for practice are discussed.

A Prospective Study of Cognitive Complaints in Patients With Testicular Cancer

Introduction Cognitive complaints are frequent among patients with cancer. Oncologists and patients have become concerned that systemic chemotherapy may have cognitive side effects. After this concern became public there was a risk of expectation bias in studies of cognitive complaints. We prospectively explored cognitive complaints in patients with testicular cancer treated with chemotherapy or radiotherapy during the 1990s, before today's increased awareness of this possible side effect. Patients and Methods The European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) quality of life (QoL) questionnaire (QLQ-C30) and a testicular cancer module (TC module) were completed before treatment (baseline), at 3 months, and at 12 months by 276 chemotherapy and 71 radiotherapy patients enrolled in 3 EORTC studies. Cognitive complaints were based on the cognitive function (CF) items (concentration and memory) of the QLQ-C30. Other QLQ-C30 functions and symptoms represented adjustment variables. Results The chemotherapy group (CHEMO) showed a significant increase in prevalence of cognitive complaints from baseline to 3 months. At 12 months these rates were back at baseline levels. The radiotherapy group (RAD) showed no significant change in the prevalence of cognitive complaints over time. Significant differences between the 2 treatment groups were observed only at the 3-month follow-up. In multivariate analyses, treatment modality did not show significant association with cognitive complaints at any time point, whereas current fatigue showed significant associations at all time points. Conclusion In patients with testicular cancer with no information or expectation bias, an increased rate of cognitive complaints was observed shortly after chemotherapy, with return to baseline levels at 12 months. Treatment modality (chemotherapy vs. radiotherapy) was not associated with cognitive complaints at any time point after adjustment for relevant QoL variables.

Gambling-Related Cognitive Biases and Pathological Gambling Among Youths, Young Adults, and Mature Adults in Chinese Societies

This study investigated the extent to which gambling-related cognitive biases would associate with various levels of gambling pathology among 2,835 youths, 934 young adults, and 162 mature adults in Chinese societies. Results showed that gambling cognitive biases, especially biases in perceived inability to stop gambling and positive gambling expectancy, were salient correlates of pathological gambling across the three age cohorts. Analyses of variances on total cognitive biases also showed a gambling pathology main effect and an age cohort × gambling pathology 2-way interaction effect. It was noted that the probable pathological gambling group had greater cognitive biases than the probable problem gambling group, which in turn had greater cognitive biases than the non-problem gambling group. In the non-problem gambling group, mature adults had greater cognitive biases than youths and young adults, but this pattern was reversed in the probable problem gambling group. In the probable pathological gambling group, youths had greater cognitive biases than young and mature adults. Specific categories of cognitive biases also varied according to gender and gambling pathology. While men as compared to women in the non-problem and probable problem gambling groups reported a greater bias in their perceived inability to stop gambling, no significant gender difference in this bias was found in the probable pathological gambling group. Men generally had greater perceived gambling expectancy bias than women.

Bias expansion of spatial statistics and approximation of differenced lattice point counts

Investigations of spatial statistics, computed from lattice data in the plane, can lead to a special lattice point counting problem. The statistical goal is to expand the asymptotic expectation or large-sample bias of certain spatial covariance estimators, where this bias typically depends on the shape of a spatial sampling region. In particular, such bias expansions often require approximating a difference between two lattice point counts, where the counts correspond to a set of increasing domain (i.e., the sampling region) and an intersection of this set with a vector translate of itself. Non-trivially, the approximation error needs to be of smaller order than the spatial region’s perimeter length. For all convex regions in 2-dimensional Euclidean space and certain unions of convex sets, we show that a difference in areas can approximate a difference in lattice point counts to this required accuracy, even though area can poorly measure the lattice point count of any single set involved in the difference. When investigating large-sample properties of spatial estimators, this approximation result facilitates direct calculation of limiting bias, because, unlike counts, differences in areas are often tractable to compute even with non-rectangular regions. We illustrate the counting approximations with two statistical examples.

Uncertainty is associated with biased expectancies and heightened responses to aversion.

Uncertainty is an omnipresent force in peoples' lives that has been shown to amplify the negative impact of aversive events. This amplified aversiveness, together with the negative attitudes that individuals can have toward uncertainty, suggests that a cue indicating uncertainty about future events might be associated with biased expectancies of negative outcomes or biased contingency estimates, similar to biases that have been observed for traditional fear-relevant cues, such as snakes or spiders. Participants in this study saw three different cues: one that indicated with certainty that an aversive picture would follow, one that indicated with certainty that a neutral picture would follow, and one that indicated uncertainty about whether an aversive or neutral picture would follow. Online self-report data revealed negatively biased expectancies of aversion after uncertain cues. The degree of this online expectancy bias predicted participants' estimates, at the conclusion of the experiment, of the relationship between uncertain cues and aversive pictures. Aversive pictures after the uncertain cue (relative to those after the certain cue) were accompanied by increased skin conductance responses and self-reported negative mood. These findings that uncertainty is accompanied by biased expectancies of aversion and heightened responses to aversion warrant extensions of this research in anxiety disorders, given evidence for intolerance of uncertainty and anticipatory dysfunction in the pathology of such disorders.

Editorial: Evaluation of CAM interventions

Editorial: Evaluation of CAM interventions

House Price Shocks, Negative Equity, And Household Consumption In The United Kingdom4

We examine the impact of unanticipated housing capital gains on consumption behavior using data from the British Household Panel Survey and county-level house price data. We condition the models on household financial expectations and on household real financial capital gains imputed from the Family Resources Survey. We find a marginal propensity to consume out of unanticipated shocks to housing wealth of 0.01. Omitting the measure of financial expectations biases the results upward. We find little evidence of heterogeneity in responses of young and old homeowners, but differences between owners and renters. We also find asymmetric behavior between house price rises and falls, and a disproportionate impact on saving if the household had negative housing equity at the start of the period. (JEL: D91, E21, R31) (c) 2010 by the European Economic Association.

Inaccuracy in Clinical Trials: Effects and Methods to Control Inaccuracy

The increasing rate of failed trails found in mood and anxiety disorders is now being seen in Alzheimer's studies. Factors related to the administration of clinician rating scales, such as poor inter-rater reliability, poor interview quality and rater bias may be a contributing factor. Studies have found inter-rater reliability to be problematic in Alzheimer's studies, even with less subjective outcome measures. Lack of standardization of administration and scoring procedures has been identified as a major contributing factor. Remediation through better training procedures has been found to be successful, although ongoing calibration is needed to prevent rater drift. Expectancy bias and baseline score inflation is more difficult to remediate. Inflation of baseline scores increases placebo response, since lower severity has been found to be associated with higher placebo response. The use of centralized raters that are independent from study sites may help ameliorate these issues. Increased methodological research examining new approaches to these problems is warranted. The increased costs associated with this research should offset the time and expense of continuing with 'business as usual'.

Contamination and harm relevant UCS‐expectancy bias in spider phobic individuals: influence of treatment

Phobic individuals expect aversive UCS's following encounters with phobic stimuli. Previous research using a thought-experiment procedure showed that contamination rather than harm-related outcome expectancies differentiated best between high and low spider fearful undergraduates. This study investigated the alleged role of these UCS-expectancy biases in the maintenance of phobic complaints. First, this study sought to replicate these earlier findings in a community sample of high spider fearful individuals who applied for treatment (n = 60) and a sample of low spider fear controls (n = 30). Second, the present study tested if UCS-expectancies disappear following successful treatment and whether there were any differences between harm and contamination-related UCS expectancies in this respect. If contamination- and/or harm-related UCS-expectancy biases play a critical role in the maintenance of spider fear, these biases should be substantially reduced after successful treatment. The results showed that spider fearful individuals associated spiders relatively strongly with both harm- and contamination-related outcomes. Consistent with the alleged reciprocal relationship between phobic fear and UCS expectancy bias, both types of biased expectancies were effectively reduced following treatment.

Managing Financial Market Expectations: The Role of Central Bank Transparency and Central Bank Communication

In this paper, we study the influence of central bank transparency and informal central bank communication on the formation of money market expectations. The sample covers nine major central banks from January 1999 to July 2007. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias in money market expectations and dampens their variation. Second, informal communications help manage financial market expectations by reducing the variation of expectations. Third, various subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) transparency index lead to a smaller bias in expectations (in particular, evaluation of policy outcome and explanation of interest rate decisions) and to a reduction in the variation of expectations (in particular, explicit prioritization of objectives and provision of information on unanticipated macroeconomic disturbances).

Context and Economic Expectations: When Do Voters Get It Right?

This article discusses the accuracy and sources of economic assessments in three ways. First, following the rational expectations literature in economics, a large sample of countries over a long time period permits tests of the unbiasedness implication of the rational expectations hypotheses (REH), revealing much variation in the accuracy of expectations and the nature of the biases in expectations. Secondly, a theory of expectation formation encompassing the unbiasedness prediction of the REH and setting out the conditions under which economic expectations should be too optimistic or too pessimistic is elucidated. Zaller’s theory of political attitude formation allows the identification of variables conditioning the accuracy of expectations across contexts, drawing a link between the thinking of political scientists and economists about expectation formation. Finally, the theoretical argument that political context impacts the accuracy of average expectations is tested.

Scriptedness and Televised Sports: Violent Consumption and Viewer Enjoyment

Extending Raney and Depalma’s research, this study examined effects of sport production on sport consumption. An experimental design crossed scripted (vs. unscripted) sport with violence (vs. nonviolence) to investigate the effects of both variables on violent outcomes and enjoyment. After viewing one of four clips, participants responded to three incomplete story stems, and responses were coded to measure hostile expectancy bias as a form of violent outcome. Participants also responded to their enjoyment of the clip they consumed. Analyses showed a main effect that consuming sport violence increased participants’ hostile expectancy bias. However, a significant interaction showed that scriptedness moderated this effect, such that violence increased hostile expectancy bias only in the scripted condition. Enjoyment was also affected by scriptedness and violence, as violent nonscripted sports were enjoyed more than all other conditions. Results suggest that violence in sports may be interpreted differently based on the scriptedness of the sport and may be processed differently than violence in other forms of entertainment. Implications of these findings are discussed, as are limitations and future directions for study.

E-file adoption: A study of U.S. taxpayers’ intentions

The United States Congress has set ambitious goals for the diffusion of e-government initiatives. One of congress’ goals for the 2007 tax year was for 80% of tax and informational returns to be filed electronically ( IRS., 2004). In 2008, 90 million Americans choose to e-file ( IRS., 2009); however, Congress’ goal of 80% adoption has still fallen short. This paper integrates the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model, online trust, perceived risk, and optimism bias into a comprehensive model of e-file adoption. To empirically test the model a survey is administered to 260 United States taxpayers. Structural equation modeling is used to evaluate relationships between these concepts and intention to use. Results indicate performance expectancy, social influence, facilitating conditions, and optimism bias all have a significant impact on e-file intention. Trust in the internet and trust in the e-file provider were shown to significantly influence perceived risk. Implications for practice and research are discussed.

Direct and Indirect Influences of Fate Control Belief, Gambling Expectancy Bias, and Self-Efficacy on Problem Gambling and Negative Mood Among Chinese College Students: A Multiple Mediation Analysis

A multiple mediation model was proposed to integrate core concepts of the social axioms framework and the social cognitive theory in order to understand gambling behavior. It was hypothesized that the influence of general fate control belief on problem gambling and negative mood would be mediated by gambling-specific beliefs. Data from 773 Chinese college recreational gamblers were collected. The bootstrapping procedure was used to test the multiple mediation hypotheses. Significant indirect effects of fate control belief on problem gambling and negative mood through two gambling-specific mediators were found. Gambling expectancy bias was a more salient mediator than gambling self-efficacy. Fate control belief was also found to have a significant direct effect on negative mood. In general, a high level of general fate control belief was related to greater gambling expectancy bias and lower self-efficacy in resisting gambling, which were in turn related to problem gambling and negative mood. Limitations and implications of the study were discussed.

Sustainability of teacher expectation bias effects on long-term student performance.

In this article, we address the relationship between teacher expectation bias and student characteristics, its effect on long-term student performance, and the development of this effect over time. Expectation bias was defined as the difference between observed and predicted teacher expectation. These predicted expectations were estimated from a multilevel model in which teacher expectations of students' future performance in secondary education were regressed on students' prior achievement, IQ, and achievement motivation. Multilevel analyses were performed on a data set of about 11,000 students who entered secondary school in 1999 and who were monitored for 5 years. We found relationships between teacher expectation bias and student characteristics as well as a clear effect of expectation bias on long-term student performance. Teacher expectation bias partly mediated the effects of student characteristics on students' performance. Moreover, its effect was moderated by some of these characteristics. Mediation and moderation effects were the strongest for parents' aspirations. The effects of teacher expectation bias dissipated partly during the first 2 years but afterwards remained stable over time.