Expectation Bias Research Articles

Do Teachers have in-group Bias about Student Caste and Socioeconomic Status in India?

This article studies the extent of teacher’s in-group bias in occupational expectations and grading on the basis of a student’s caste and socioeconomic status. The article adopts an experimental approach and draws on data generated from 122 teachers from 19 schools in Delhi, India. The caste and socio-economic status of students were randomly assigned to a set of essays written by them such that the assigned characteristics were not related to essay quality. The results show that high caste teachers hold higher occupational expectations from their in-group category and are biased against the low caste category. For instance, high caste teachers assign 0.53 per cent or 0.019 points higher occupational expectations to high caste students and assign 5.6 per cent or 0.19 points lower occupational expectations to low caste students. The magnitude of coefficients is small but significant at 5 per cent level (P value<0.005). In terms of marks assigned, results show, that high caste teachers assign 2.36 points or 3.22 per cent higher marks when the assigned characteristics belong to a high caste; indicating in-group bias/favor for the same caste. The coefficient is positive and significant at 5 per cent level (P- value < 0.05). In contrast, high caste teachers are shown to be biased against low caste students as they assign 2.41 points or 3.41 per cent lower marks when the assigned characteristics is a low caste. Given the ultra-competitive nature of schooling in India and the importance of grades in determining access to higher education in India, even a point disadvantage is substantial.

Do Teachers has In-group Bias on Basis of Student’s Caste and Socioeconomic Status in India?

This paper studies the extent of teacher’s in-group bias in occupational expectations and grading on basis of student’s caste and socioeconomic status. The paper adopts an experimental approach and draws on data generated from 122 teachers from 19 schools in Delhi, India. Student’s caste and socio-economic status were randomly assigned to a set of essays written by students such that the assigned characteristics were not related to essay quality. The results show that high caste teachers hold higher occupational expectations from their in-group category and biased against low caste category. For instance, high caste teachers assign 0.53% or 0.019 points higher occupational expectations to high caste students and assign 5.6% or 0.19 points lower occupational expectations to low caste students. The magnitude of coefficients is small but significant at 5% level (P value<0.005). In terms of marks assigned, results show, that high caste teachers assign 2.36 points or 3.22% higher marks when the assigned characteristics belong to high caste; indicating in- group bias/favour for the same caste. The coefficient is positive and significant at 5% level (P- value < 0.05). In contrast, high caste teachers are shown to be biased against low caste students as they assign 2.41 points or 3.41% lower marks when the assigned characteristics is low caste. Given the ultra-competitive nature of schooling in India and the importance of grades in determining access to higher education in India, even a point disadvantage is substantial.

Fast frequency modulation is encoded according to the listener expectations in the human subcortical auditory pathway

Abstract Expectations aid and bias our perception. For instance, expected words are easier to recognise than unexpected words, particularly in noisy environments, and incorrect expectations can make us misunderstand our conversational partner. Expectations are combined with the output from the sensory pathways to form representations of auditory objects in the cerebral cortex. Previous literature has shown that expectations propagate further down to subcortical stations during the encoding of static pure tones. However, it is unclear whether expectations also drive the subcortical encoding of subtle dynamic elements of the acoustic signal that are not represented in the tonotopic axis. Here, we tested the hypothesis that subjective expectations drive the encoding of fast frequency modulation (FM) in the human subcortical auditory pathway. We used fMRI to measure neural responses in the human auditory midbrain (inferior colliculus) and thalamus (medial geniculate body). Participants listened to sequences of FM-sweeps for which they held different expectations based on the task instructions. We found robust evidence that the responses in auditory midbrain and thalamus encode the difference between the acoustic input and the subjective expectations of the listener. The results indicate that FM-sweeps are already encoded at the level of the human auditory midbrain and that encoding is mainly driven by subjective expectations. We conclude that the subcortical auditory pathway is integrated in the cortical network of predictive processing and that expectations are used to optimise the encoding of fast dynamic elements of the acoustic signal.

Cognitive Mechanisms of Aberrant Self-Referential Social Perception in Psychosis and Bipolar Disorder: Insights From Computational Modeling.

Individuals with schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) show disruptions in self-referential gaze perception-a social perceptual process related to symptoms and functioning. However, our current mechanistic understanding of these dysfunctions and relationships is imprecise. The present study used mathematical modeling to uncover cognitive processes driving gaze perception abnormalities in SZ and BD, and how they relate to cognition, symptoms, and social functioning. We modeled the behavior of 28 SZ, 38 BD, and 34 controls (HC) in a self-referential gaze perception task using drift-diffusion models parameterized to index key cognitive components: drift rate (evidence accumulation efficiency), drift bias (perceptual bias), start point (expectation bias), threshold separation (response caution), and nondecision time (encoding/motor processes). Results revealed that aberrant gaze perception in SZ and BD was driven by less efficient evidence accumulation, perceptual biases predisposing self-referential responses, and greater caution (SZ only). Across SZ and HC, poorer social functioning was related to greater expectation biases. Within SZ, perceptual and expectancy biases were associated with hallucination and delusion severity, respectively. These findings indicate that diminished evidence accumulation and perceptual biases may underlie altered gaze perception in patients and that SZ may engage in compensatory cautiousness, sacrificing response speed to preserve accuracy. Moreover, biases at the belief and perceptual levels may relate to symptoms and functioning. Computational modeling can, therefore, be used to achieve a more nuanced, cognitive process-level understanding of the mechanisms of social cognitive difficulties, including gaze perception, in individuals with SZ and BD.

The relationship between blinding integrity and medication efficacy in randomised-controlled trials in patients with anxiety disorders: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Blinding is thought to minimise expectancy effects and biases in double-blind randomised-controlled trials (RCTs). However, whether blinding integrity should be assessed and reported remains debated. Furthermore, it is unknown whether blinding failure influences the outcome of RCTs in anxiety disorders. We carried out a systematic review to understand whether blinding integrity is assessed and reported in anxiolytic RCTs. A secondary aim was to explore whether blinding integrity is associated with treatment efficacy. Our protocol was pre-registered (PROSPERO CRD42022328750). We searched electronic databases for placebo-controlled, randomised trials of medication in adults with generalised and social anxiety disorders, and in panic disorder, from 1980. We extracted data regarding blinding integrity and treatment efficacy. Risk of bias was assessed with the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Where possible, we subsequently calculated Bang's Blinding Index, and assessed the association between blinding integrity and treatment effect size. Of the 247 RCTs that met inclusion criteria, we were able to obtain assessments of blinding integrity from nine (3.64%). Overall, blinding failed in five of these trials (55.56%), but blinding was intact in 80% of placebo arms. We found a significant association between reduced blinding integrity among assessors and increased treatment effect size (betas < -1.30, p's < 0.001), but this analysis involved only four studies of which two were outlying studies. In patients, we saw a non-significant trend where reduced blinding integrity in the placebo groups was associated with increased treatment efficacy, which was not present in active medication arms. [Correction added on 19 August 2024, after first online publication: Results of the RCTs and its assessment of blinding integrity have been updated.] CONCLUSION: Consistent with work in other psychiatric disorders, blinding integrity is rarely reported in anxiolytic RCTs. Where it is reported, blinding appears to often fail. We found signals that suggest unblinding of clinician assessors (driven by two studies with complete unblinding), and of patients in placebo arms, might be associated with larger treatment effect sizes. We recommend that data regarding blinding integrity, along with the reasons patients and assessors offer for their beliefs regarding group allocation, are systematically collected in RCTs of anxiolytic treatment.

A multilevel examination of an inhibitory retrieval approach to exposure: Differentiating the unique and combined effects of multiple-context and multiple-stimulus cues

Background and objectivesA proposed strategy for attenuating the return of fear is conducting exposure therapy in multiple contexts (e.g., different locations), which is believed to enhance the generalizability of safety learning. Although conducting exposure in multiple contexts can be differentiated from conducting exposure with multiple stimuli, the two strategies are often conflated. Furthermore, researchers have not yet determined whether one of these strategies, or a combination thereof, is most effective in attenuating fear renewal. MethodsAccordingly, the present treatment-analogue study examined the unique and combined effects of multiple-context and multiple-stimulus imagery-based exposure manipulations on threat expectancy, behavioral approach/anxiety, and attentional bias for threat over Zoom. Community adults (N = 134) who met diagnostic criteria for snake phobia were randomized to exposure to a single snake in multiple environmental contexts (MC), exposure to multiple snakes in a single environmental context (MS), or exposure to multiple snakes in multiple environmental contexts (MS/MC). ResultsResults revealed significant reductions in threat expectancy and behavioral anxiety, but not attentional bias for threat in all three groups. However, behavioral approach declined over the course of exposure in the MS/MC condition but remained stable in the MC and MS conditions. There were no significant group differences in behavioral approach/anxiety or attentional bias at a one-week follow-up. However, participants in the MC condition reported lower threat expectancy at a one-week follow-up than the other groups and this group difference was partially mediated by lower mean distress during exposure. ConclusionsImplications of these findings for the inhibitory retrieval theory are discussed.

Cognitive Mechanisms of Aberrant Self-Referential Social Perception in Psychosis and Bipolar Disorder: Insights from Computational Modeling.

Individuals with schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar disorder (BD) show disruptions in self-referential gaze perception-a social perceptual process related to symptoms and functioning. However, our current mechanistic understanding of these dysfunctions and relationships is imprecise. The present study used mathematical modeling to uncover cognitive processes driving gaze perception abnormalities in SZ and BD, and how they relate to cognition, symptoms, and social functioning. We modeled the behavior of 28 SZ, 38 BD, and 34 controls (HC) in a self-referential gaze perception task using drift-diffusion models (DDM) parameterized to index key cognitive components: drift rate (evidence accumulation efficiency), drift bias (perceptual bias), start point (expectation bias), threshold separation (response caution), and non- decision time (encoding/motor processes). Results revealed that aberrant gaze perception in SZ and BD was driven by less efficient evidence accumulation, perceptual biases predisposing self-referential responses, and greater caution (SZ only). Across SZ and HC, poorer social functioning was related to greater expectation biases. Within SZ, perceptual and expectancy biases were associated with hallucination and delusion severity, respectively. These findings indicate that diminished evidence accumulation and perceptual biases may underlie altered gaze perception in patients and that SZ may engage in compensatory cautiousness, sacrificing response speed to preserve accuracy. Moreover, biases at the belief and perceptual levels may relate to symptoms and functioning. Computational modeling can, therefore, be used to achieve a more nuanced, cognitive process-level understanding of the mechanisms of social cognitive difficulties, including gaze perception, in individuals with SZ and BD.

The efficacy of automated feedback after internet-based depression screening (DISCOVER): an observer-masked, three-armed, randomised controlled trial in Germany

Despite the availability of effective treatments, most depressive disorders remain undetected and untreated. Internet-based depression screening combined with automated feedback of screening results could reach people with depression and lead to evidence-based care. We aimed to test the efficacy of two versions of automated feedback after internet-based screening on depression severity compared with no feedback. DISCOVER was an observer-masked, three-armed, randomised controlled trial in Germany. We recruited individuals (aged ≥18 years) who were undiagnosed with depression and screened positive for depression on an internet-based self-report depression rating scale (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 [PHQ-9] ≥10 points). Participants were randomly assigned 1:1:1 to automatically receive no feedback, non-tailored feedback, or tailored feedback on the depression screening result. Randomisation was stratified by depression severity (moderate: PHQ-9 score 10-14 points; severe: PHQ-9 score ≥15 points). Participants could not be masked but were kept unaware of trial hypotheses to minimise expectancy bias. The non-tailored feedback included the depression screening result, a recommendation to seek professional diagnostic advice, and brief general information about depression and its treatment. The tailored feedback included the same basic information but individually framed according to the participants' symptom profiles, treatment preferences, causal symptom attributions, health insurance, and local residence. Research staff were masked to group allocation and outcome assessment as these were done using online questionnaires. The primary outcome was change in depression severity, defined as change in PHQ-9 score 6 months after random assignment. Analyses were conducted following the intention-to-treat principle for participants with at least one follow-up visit. This trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04633096. Between Jan 12, 2021, and Jan 31, 2022, 4878 individuals completed the internet-based screening. Of these, 1178 (24%) screened positive for depression (mean age 37·1 [SD 14·2] years; 824 [70%] woman, 344 [29%] men, and 10 [1%] other gender identity). 6 months after random assignment, depression severity decreased by 3·4 PHQ-9 points in the no feedback group (95% CI 2·9-4·0; within-group d 0·67; 325 participants), by 3·5 points in the non-tailored feedback group (3·0-4·0; within-group d 0·74; 319 participants), and by 3·7 points in the tailored feedback group (3·2-4·3; within-group d 0·71; 321 participants), with no significant differences among the three groups (p=0·72). The number of participants seeking help for depression or initiating psychotherapy or antidepressant treatment did not differ among study groups. The results remained consistent when adjusted for fulfilling the DSM-5-based criteria for major depressive disorder or subjective belief of having a depressive disorder. Negative effects were reported by less than 1% of the total sample 6 months after random assignment. Automated feedback following internet-based depression screening did not reduce depression severity or prompt sufficient depression care in individuals previously undiagnosed with but affected by depression. German Research Foundation.

The role of expectancies and selective interrogation of information in trait anxiety-linked affect when approaching potentially stressful future events

The present study examined cognitive mechanisms underpinning the increased tendency of individuals with high trait anxiety to experience inflation of negative affect when approaching potential stressors. Specifically, the roles of (1) disproportionately negative relative to positive expectancies (i.e., negative expectancy bias) and (2) disproportionately interrogating negative relative to positive information (i.e., negative interrogation bias), each concerning the potential stressor, were examined. High and low trait anxiety participants (N = 286) completed the experimental session, in which they were informed they may view a potentially stressful film. As participants approached the putative film viewing, participants' negative and positive affect, as well as their negative and positive expectancies were assessed. Additionally, negative interrogation bias was assessed by providing participants the opportunity to selectively interrogate information from a larger pool of negative and positive information concerning the putative film viewing. Our findings provide evidence indirect associations between trait anxiety and inflation of negative affect is serially mediated via negative interrogation bias and, in turn, negative expectancy bias. Findings are discussed with regards to limitations and potential implications for public health campaigns, and cognitive interventions for anxiety, highlighting the utility of further examining negative interrogation bias as an avenue for improving the efficacy of each.

Taking cognisance of households’ inflation expectations in India

ABSTRACT The paper studies characteristics of inflation expectations in developed and emerging economies. It finds that properties of expectations in India share similarities to those in other economies. Acknowledging the inherent bias in expectations in India, this paper proceeds to find one of the many possible use cases for capturing households’ expectations. It attempts to find a relationship between households’ expectations and their future savings pattern. The analysis indicates households’ reduced preference for bank term deposits when they expect rising inflation. Hence, households’ inflation expectations despite bearing upward bias should be tracked to assess households’ behavioural decisions, such as future savings

Role of Language in Emotions and Bias: A Cognitive Linguistic Perspective of Affective Political Media in the US

In todays digital era, where emotions are central to journalism and information disseminates rapidly, the role of language in transmitting emotions, stereotypes, and biases has become a subject of debate and study. The use of language in news media can be argued, as it may prioritize sensationalism over accuracy to tap into peoples feelings under new business models and the attention economy. While journalism ethics aim to minimize bias, journalism consistently incorporates emotions to captivate the audience and create an experience of involvement. This is significant because language, consumed from diverse media news channels, is integral to cognition. Research in cognitive linguistics demonstrates that human beings view the world in metaphoric terms, and language defines and constrains communication, thinking, and sense-making. This article explores linguistic mechanisms such as metaphors of flood and aliens, agenda setting, selectivity, framing, and expectancy bias, through which emotions, perspectives, and affectivity are sustained and propagated in political news reporting. It considers the impact of stereotypes and biases, particularly in the media portrayal of undocumented immigrants and different framings in the description of the War in Gaza. The article highlights that language is seldom neutral and is intertwined with motives, emphasizing the importance of understanding the persuasive power of words. In conclusion, this paper reveals the role of language in shaping perceptions of message receivers and contributes to enhancing linguistic justice, informing more ethical approaches to journalism and media production. It emphasizes the need for an editorially conscious and intelligent use of language to create engaging, empathetic content.

Disorder-specific versus transdiagnostic cognitive mechanisms in anxiety and depression: Machine-learning-based prediction of symptom severity

IntroductionPsychiatric evaluation of anxiety and depression is currently based on self-reported symptoms and their classification into discrete disorders. Yet the substantial overlap between these disorders as well as their within-disorder heterogeneity may contribute to the mediocre success rates of treatments. The proposed research examines a new framework for diagnosis that is based on alterations in underlying cognitive mechanisms. In line with the Research Domain Criteria (RDoC) approach, the current study directly compares disorder-specific and transdiagnostic cognitive patterns in predicting the severity of anxiety and depression symptoms. MethodsThe sample included 237 individuals exhibiting differing levels of anxiety and depression symptoms, as measured by the STAI-T and BDI-II. Random Forest regressors were used to analyze their performance on a battery of six computerized cognitive-behavioral tests targeting selective and spatial attention, expectancy, interpretation, memory, and cognitive control biases. ResultsUnique anxiety-specific biases were found, as well as shared anxious-depressed bias patterns. These cognitive biases exhibited relatively high fitting rates when predicting symptom severity (questionnaire scores common range 0–60, MAE = 6.03, RMSE = 7.53). Interpretation and expectancy biases exhibited the highest association with symptoms, above all other individual biases. LimitationsAlthough internal validation methods were applied, models may suffer from potential overfitting due to sample size limitations. ConclusionIn the context of the ongoing dispute regarding symptom-centered versus transdiagnostic approaches, the current study provides a unique comparison of these two views, yielding a novel intermediate approach. The results support the use of mechanism-based dimensional diagnosis for adding precision and objectivity to future psychiatric evaluations.

Can agentic messages help? Linguistic strategies to counteract voice-based sexual orientation discrimination.

Gay men who believe to sound 'gay' expect to be discriminated against because of their voices and gay-sounding men are discriminated against in the hiring process. We examined whether uttering an agency-based message decreased discrimination expectancy and enactment. In Study 1a (N = 256; gay and bisexual men) and Study 1b (N = 216; gay men), speakers uttered agentic (vs. neutral) messages. We assessed their self-perception as gay sounding, agency self-attribution and discrimination expectancy. Uttering agentic (vs. neutral) messages made the speakers self-perceive as more agentic and this decreased discrimination expectancy. Additionally, self-perception as gay sounding predicted discrimination expectancy. In Study 2 (N = 466), heterosexual participants listened to gay- and straight-sounding speakers uttering either neutral or agentic messages and rated them in terms of agency and employability. Gay-sounding speakers uttering agentic messages were less likely to be discriminated against than when uttering neutral messages. Results show the positive impact of linguistic strategies involving agentic messages to reduce discrimination expectancy and hiring biases.

Uncertainty cues amplify late positive potential responses to aversive emotional stimuli

ABSTRACT Uncertainty is unavoidable, and maladaptive responses to uncertainty may underlie the etiology and maintenance of psychopathology. A general tendency to associate uncertainty with aversive consequences, a type of covariation bias, can amplify aversive emotional experiences. To address questions about uncertainty during emotion regulation, we examined the Late Positive Potential (LPP) – an electrocortical marker of attention to and appraisal of motivationally relevant emotional stimuli – during a task designed to measure the effect of covariation bias and its emotional response consequences. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while participants (N = 52) were presented with a pre-stimulus cue that either conveyed information about the valence of an upcoming emotional image, or left them in ambiguity. We replicated findings that demonstrate expectancy biases in a priori and online expectancies of emotion-eliciting images, as well as in a posteriori estimates for concurrence of uncertainty cues and aversive images. Moreover, we demonstrate a novel finding that uncertainty cues amplify the LPP in response to subsequent aversive emotional stimuli. These findings advance research by conjoining existing emotion regulation research on the LPP with study of the effects of uncertainty on emotional appraisal and highlight the importance of accounting for stimulus uncertainty in emotion regulation research.

Expectancy and attention bias to spiders: Dissecting anticipation and allocation processes using ERPs.

The current registered report focused on the temporal dynamics of the relationship between expectancy and attention toward threat, to better understand the mechanisms underlying the prioritization of threat detection over expectancy. In the current event-related potentials experiment, a-priori expectancy was manipulated, and attention bias was measured, using a well-validated paradigm. A visual search array was presented, with one of two targets: spiders (threatening) or birds (neutral). A verbal cue stating the likelihood of encountering a target preceded the array, creating congruent and incongruent trials. Following cue presentation, preparatory processes were examined using the contingent negative variation (CNV) component. Following target presentation, two components were measured: early posterior negativity (EPN) and late positive potential (LPP), reflecting early and late stages of natural selective attention toward emotional stimuli, respectively. Behaviorally, spiders were found faster than birds, and congruency effects emerged for both targets. For the CNV, a non-significant trend of more negative amplitudes following spider cues emerged. As expected, EPN and LPP amplitudes were larger for spider targets compared to bird targets. Data-driven, exploratory, topographical analyses revealed different patterns of activation for bird cues compared to spider cues. Furthermore, 400-500 ms post-target, a congruency effect was revealed only for bird targets. Together, these results demonstrate that while expectancy for spider appearance is evident in differential neural preparation, the actual appearance of spider target overrides this expectancy effect and only in later stages of processing does the cueing effect come again into play.

Assessing expectancy and suggestibility in a trial of escitalopram v. psilocybin for depression.

To investigate the association between pre-trial expectancy, suggestibility, and response to treatment in a trial of escitalopram and investigational drug, COMP360, psilocybin, in the treatment of major depressive disorder (ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT03429075). We used data (n = 55) from our recent double-blind, parallel-group, randomized head-to-head comparison trial of escitalopram and investigational drug, COMP360, psilocybin. Mixed linear models were used to investigate the association between pre-treatment efficacy-related expectations, as well as baseline trait suggestibility and absorption, and therapeutic response to both escitalopram and COMP360 psilocybin. Patients had significantly higher expectancy for psilocybin relative to escitalopram; however, expectancy for escitalopram was associated with improved therapeutic outcomes to escitalopram, expectancy for psilocybin was not predictive of response to psilocybin. Separately, we found that pre-treatment trait suggestibility was associated with therapeutic response in the psilocybin arm, but not in the escitalopram arm. Overall, our results suggest that psychedelic therapy may be less vulnerable to expectancy biases than previously suspected. The relationship between baseline trait suggestibility and response to psilocybin therapy implies that highly suggestible individuals may be primed for response to this treatment.

Contracts and Firms' Inflation Expectations

Abstract We use novel survey data to study firms’ inventory contracts. We document facts about the usage of purchase and sale contracts. We find that firms purchase and sell inventory through three contractual arrangements: fixed price and quantity, fixed price only, and fixed quantity only. Those using fixed price and quantity hold the largest share of contracts. The average duration of purchase contracts is not very different from the average duration of sale contracts. We then find that the upward bias in inflation expectations is a feature of firms that do not purchase or sell largely through contracts. Our findings are useful in the calibration of sticky price models.

Teacher Stereotypes and Teacher Expectations at the Intersection of Student Gender and Socioeconomic Status

Abstract: Gender and family socioeconomic status (SES) are central dimensions of educational inequality and may interact in shaping inequality. This study addresses teacher expectations and stereotypes that possibly contribute to intersectional inequality. The study relies on two samples of teachers and students in German primary schools (sample 1: NTeachers=69, 94 % female, NStudents= 1,049 (German language)/1,027 (mathematics), 48 % female; sample 2: NTeachers= 698 (German language)/614 (mathematics), 94 % female; NStudents= 4,732 (German language)/4,117 (mathematics), 51 % female). Two-level regression analyses revealed additive gender and socioeconomic bias in teacher expectations in German language and mathematics but no intersectional bias (i. e., constant gender bias along family SES and similar socioeconomic bias for girls and boys). Further, teachers with more traditional gender stereotypes showed stronger gender bias, while SES-related stereotypes were unrelated to teacher expectations. We discuss how additive teacher expectation biases relate to the broader concept of intersectionality, potentially shaping unique educational experiences at the intersection of gender and SES.

House price expectations

This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. At the heart of our analysis is the combination of data from a tailored in-person household survey, past sale offerings, satellite imagery on developable land, and an information treatment (RCT). As novel finding, we show that price expectations show no evidence for momentum-effects in the long run. We also do not find much evidence for behavioural biases in expectations related to individual housing tenure decisions. Confirming existing findings, we find momentum-effects in the short-run and that individuals, to a limited extend, use aggregate price information to update local expectations. Lastly, we provide suggestive evidence corroborating existing findings that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Affect-congruent attention modulates generalized reward expectations.

Positive and negative affective states are respectively associated with optimistic and pessimistic expectations regarding future reward. One mechanism that might underlie these affect-related expectation biases is attention to positive- versus negative-valence features (e.g., attending to the positive reviews of a restaurant versus its expensive price). Here we tested the effects of experimentally induced positive and negative affect on feature-based attention in 120 participants completing a compound-generalization task with eye-tracking. We found that participants' reward expectations for novel compound stimuli were modulated in an affect-congruent way: positive affect induction increased reward expectations for compounds, whereas negative affect induction decreased reward expectations. Computational modelling and eye-tracking analyses each revealed that these effects were driven by affect-congruent changes in participants' allocation of attention to high- versus low-value features of compounds. These results provide mechanistic insight into a process by which affect produces biases in generalized reward expectations.