The main purpose of this paper was to predict the ultimate mortar expansion (UME) and the time required to reach at 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% and 95% of the UME for the 1.0N, 0.5N and 0.25N NaOH solutions using the proposed ASR decay model (ADM). The expansion data, over the 98-day testing period, utilized in this study were produced from the fourteen aggregate groups having a large variation in mortar expansions. The analytical mortar expansions at the 14, 28, 56, and 98days were evaluated, and compared with those obtained by the experimental procedures. Additionally, the failure limit of UME for each alkali solution was developed to better predict the degree of reactivity of the investigated aggregates. When compared to the 14-day expansion limit, the proposed failure criteria of ultimate mortar expansion showed better correlations with the findings obtained from the previously suggested 28- and 56-day the expansion limits in evaluating alkali-silica reactivity of the investigated aggregates.
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