Expansion Of District Heating Research Articles

A comparative analysis of policies and strategies supporting district heating expansion and decarbonisation in Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom – Lessons for slow adopters of district heating

This paper undertakes a comprehensive comparative analysis of policy challenges and opportunities for the deployment of low-carbon DH. Through literature review and complementary qualitative analysis of interviews with key institutional stakeholders in the heating sector (n= 20) of Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, and the UK, the paper draws some important lessons on preconditions for successful roll-out of DH. We find that more governments must create appropriate conditions, provide more support, and speed up actions to enhance the role of DH in heat decarbonisation, to educate, encourage the adoption, and involve citizens, politicians, and other key stakeholders in the heat transition to DH. Amid the current energy price crisis, slow adopters must act fast to develop low-carbon DH networks to ensure the supply of secure, sustainable, and affordable heating sources. They would have to create appropriate conditions to reduce fossil-fuel path dependence, lock-out fossil fuel-based infrastructure and lock-in the diffusion and adoption of low-carbon DH.

Seasonal large-scale thermal energy storage in an evolving district heating system – Long-term modeling of interconnected supply and demand

Given the strong seasonal nature of heating demands, peak heat is important during colder seasons. Instead of peak heat plants, seasonal large-scale thermal energy storage (TES) could be utilized. These can be charged during warmer seasons and discharged when required, decreasing the need for peak heat plants. Systems modelling studies on seasonal TES are lacking. Thus, a long-term local energy system model is applied under different scenarios to investigate the potential roles of seasonal TES in an evolving heating system. The results show that seasonal TES is economically viable for: all future electricity price cases for low TES construction costs, corresponding to repurposing of underground oil storages, and for most electricity price cases for mid- and high construction costs, corresponding to new underground excavations. Seasonal TES mainly decrease the investments in and usage of electric boilers or biogas boilers, while increase the utilization of heat pumps. Other technologies may be affected depending on the future trajectory of electricity price developments. The size of the TES is between 3 and 7% of the annual district heating heat demand, depending on construction cost and electricity price development. The expansion of district heating into new housing is mostly unaffected by the availability of TES.

District Heating Deployment and Energy-Saving Measures to Decarbonise the Building Stock in 100% Renewable Energy Systems

Achieving a zero-emission building heating sector requires numerous strategies and detailed energy planning, in order to identify the optimal decarbonisation pathway. This work aims to assess the impact of district heating expansion and the implementation of energy-saving measures on the decarbonisation of the Italian building stock by 2050, analysing their combined impact, reciprocal effects, and technical–economic implications on the entire national energy system. The scenarios have been implemented and simulated with the H2RES software, a long-term energy planning optimisation model, built for the Italian national energy system. Results indicate that it is possible to decarbonise the heating system in an efficient and cost-effective manner by the year 2040. Heat pumps represent the optimal technology at both centralised and decentralised levels. District heating expansion is a priority for the decarbonisation of the building stock, allowing us to reduce costs, exploit thermal storage systems and provide system flexibility. In the best scenario, 40% of the Italian heat demand can be supplied by fourth-generation district heating. Energy-saving measures can reduce heat demand and primary energy but at higher annual costs and with a significant increase in investment. The combined simulation of the strategies within an optimisation model of the entire energy system enables the accurate assessment of the real impact of the various measures, considering their reciprocal effects and technical–economic implications.

Combining techno-economic modeling and spatial analysis for heat planning in rural regions: A case study of the Holbæk municipality in Denmark

This study examines the opportunities and challenges related to heat decarbonization in rural municipalities by applying a spatial analysis in combination with techno-economic modeling using TIMES. While the transition to low-carbon heating technologies is progressing in urban areas, this shift is happening more slowly in rural areas, reflecting a difference in decarbonization rate between urban and rural contexts. This study takes the Holbæk Municipality in Denmark as a case to investigate the potential for rural heating systems considering local fuels, excess heat, and investments in different energy infrastructures. The technology options investigated include both individual heating technologies, such as domestic boilers and heat pumps, and district heating. The modeling results demonstrate that use of excess heat from the municipal wastewater treatment plant and the neighboring industrial site for district heating competes with individual heating systems that have heat pumps and biogas-fueled boilers, where the mix depends on the conditions assumed for each technology and the heat demand density. The extent of district heating expansion differs between districts in the municipality, ranging from 14% to 100% depending on the heat demand density and proximity to the current district heating network. The different possibilities for the transition of the heating sector revealed in this work indicate that a successful transition will require both a clear policy for the heating sector and an explicit decarbonization strategy for the industries that can provide excess heat for district heating.

Identifying future district heating potentials in Germany: a study using empirical insights and distribution cost analysis

District heating will play an important role in the transition towards climate-neutral heating. Various studies on modelling the energy system show that district heating and the related expansion of the networks can have different levels of importance. A main reason is that the costs for distribution grid expansion are not well or not at all considered and empirical evidence for a threshold for cost-effective distribution costs is missing in such studies. In this paper, we aim to improve empirical evidence allowing to improve the representation of future district heating expansion in energy systems models. For that, the current status of district heating is analysed in high spatial resolution for Germany. The results show that with the currently accepted average costs, a large range of the possible future market share of district heating for buildings between 17 - 52% is possible by 2050, with the parameters of the connection rate and the renovation rate of the building stock. We conclude that the district heating share could be increased by the factor of 2 to 5 in the future, proving the importance of climate-neutral district heating in the transition.

Municipal heat provision experiences and expectations in Germany

BackgroundCompared to other sectors, the building sector is seriously lagging in efforts to mitigate climate change. In particular, heat provision needs to move to low-carbon options at greater speed. Municipalities are essential players in the transition to low-carbon heating. However, little is known about their experiences in developing heat provision infrastructure and their expectations of low-carbon options, such as district heating based on renewable energy. To explore how the experiences and expectations of municipalities concerning low-carbon heating are related, we conducted a survey of officers responsible for heating technology in municipal authorities across Germany. The questionnaires were analysed using multiple quantitative data analysis techniques.ResultsOur findings suggest that officers in larger municipalities have more positive expectations of low-carbon heating technologies than those in smaller and medium-sized municipalities. They also have more experience with these technologies. We identified four different clusters of municipalities based on their attitudes towards heating systems. The findings suggest that attitudes and experiences have a significant influence on the desirability and expected feasibility of the expansion of district heating. Furthermore, there are differences between south, north, and east Germany.ConclusionsExchange of experiences and expectations between larger and smaller municipalities could facilitate the transition to low-carbon heating. Public policy could strategically provide spaces for the required exchange, but it also needs to engage with more complex questions of finance and regulation.

District heating potential in the EU-27: Evaluating the impacts of heat demand reduction and market share growth

This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the gradual reduction in heat demand and the evolving expansion of district heating (DH) grids for assessing the DH potential in EU member states (MS). It introduces new methodological elements for modeling the impact of connection rates below 100% on heat distribution costs in both dense and sparse areas. The projected heat demand in 2050 is derived from a decarbonization scenario published by the EU, which would lead to a reduction in demand from 3128 TWh in 2020 to 1709 TWh by 2050. The proposed approach yields information on economic DH areas, DH potential, and average heat distribution costs. The results confirm the need to expand DH grids to maintain supply levels in view of decreasing heat demand. The proportion of DH potential from the total demand in the EU-27 rises from 15% in 2020 to 31% in 2050. The analysis of DH areas shows that 39% of the DH potential is in areas with heat distribution costs above 35 EUR/MWh, but most MS have average heat distribution costs between 28 and 32 EUR/MWh. The study reveals that over 40% of the EU's heat demand is in regions with high potential for implementing DH.

Enhancing Urban Heating Systems Planning through Spatially Explicit Participatory Modeling

Effective planning of urban heating systems is crucial for achieving net-zero emissions at the city level. In particular, the spatial dimension plays a pivotal role in shaping the design and operation of these systems. Nonetheless, the integration of urban spatial and energy planning is rarely performed. To address this deficit, the current study proposes a participatory modeling methodology that explicitly incorporates the spatial dimension to facilitate integration and decision-making in the planning of urban heating systems. The methodology is applied to a case municipality to evaluate its benefits and implications for stakeholders involved in urban heat planning. The results reveal that the participatory nature of the methodology enhances the legitimacy, transparency, and relevance of the modeling process by engaging urban stakeholders, so as to exploit their valuable knowledge, experience, and understanding of the local context and related challenges. The developed methodology provides a spatial representation of district heating expansion, heating technology transition at the district-building level, and the installed capacities in each district, thereby improving the coherence of urban heat planning integrated with other urban plans. Consequently, the incorporation of the spatial dimension adds a nuanced layer of modeling outcomes to standard city level optimization models.

Impacts of earlier natural gas phase-out & heat-saving policies on district heating and the energy system

Decarbonizing the district heating sector is essential for an affordable energy transition. Decarbonization strategies focusing on the interaction between power sector, individual heating technologies, heat-saving measures, and district heating expansion are missing in literature. We use energy system investment optimization to analyse the impact of decarbonization policies on district heating by comprehensively modelling the above-mentioned interaction across power and heating sector, and within the heating sector. We model decarbonization policy scenarios of massive investment into heat-saving measures and an earlier natural gas phase-out by 2030. Using Denmark as a case study, we identify policy-driven investments into heat-saving measures as non-optimal. Our results indicate that district heating expansion facilitates an earlier natural gas phase-out, which is a viable policy that inflicts only 0.07% extra system cost compared to a scenario with only net-zero emission targets. Furthermore, we find that decarbonized district heating sector has a very high reliance on industrial excess heat, biofuels, and electrification. A biomass tax reduces the high utilization of raw biomass and promotes its more sustainable use in carbon capture and storage. Our results show a cogeneration capacity reduction, which poses a challenge to the business model of conventional Danish district heating companies.

A Research on the Adverse Income Effect (inequality) for Low-income Households caused by District Heating Expansion Policy - Why does the poor pay more for heating?

A Research on the Adverse Income Effect (inequality) for Low-income Households caused by District Heating Expansion Policy - Why does the poor pay more for heating?

How can pricing strategy for district heating help China realize cleaner residential heating?

District heating is the most efficient and cost-effective approach for China to achieve cleaner heating; however, the long-lived welfare pricing mechanism has impeded the expansion of district heating. In this study, we explore how a pricing strategy for district heating can benefit cleaner residential heating. Our results indicate that theoretically, cost-plus pricing is the most favorable strategy for cleaner heating in most Chinese cities; however, it is challenging to implement due to a lack of transparency regarding heat firms' costs. In contrast, the currently implemented welfare pricing strategy inhibits suppliers' initiatives, restrains financial subsidies for clean energy, and limits transitions to cleaner heating. To address this dilemma, we propose a suboptimal alternative, i.e., a modified marginal-cost pricing strategy, which achieves nearly the same reduction in emissions as that by cost-plus pricing, with higher operability and robustness.

Analyzing Intersectoral Benefits of District Heating in an Integrated Generation and Transmission Expansion Planning Model

In the field of sector integration, the expansion of district heating (DH) is traditionally discussed with regard to the efficient integration of renewable energy sources (RES) and excess heat. But does DH exclusively benefit from other sectors or does it offer advantages in return? So far, studies have investigated DH only as a closed system or determined intersectoral benefits in a highly aggregated approach. We use and expand an integrated generation and transmission expansion planning model to analyze how the flexibility of DH benefits the energy system and the power transmission grid in particular. First of all, the results confirm former investigations that show DH can be used for efficient RES integration. Total annual system cost can be decreased by expanding DH, due to low investment cost and added flexibility, especially from large-scale heat storage. The high short-term efficiency of heat storage—in combination with electric heating technologies—can be exploited to shift heat demand temporally and, using multiple distributed units, locally to solve electric grid congestion. Although it is unclear whether these results can be replicated in the real world, due to the aggregation and detail of the model, further research in this direction is justified.

Technical, economic and environmental optimization of district heating expansion in an urban agglomeration

In order to integrate large shares of variable renewable energy sources, district heating can play an important role. Furthermore, in order to increase the efficiency of district heating systems, interconnecting adjacent system could be socio-economically justified. In order to assess the economic and environmental consequences of the latter, a mixed linear integer optimization model was developed with the endogenous decision on the potential interconnectors. The case study was carried out for the city of Zagreb, Croatia. The results showed that all three studied interconnections are economically viable, while the socio-economic cost was 29.2% lower in the case of the implemented interconnectors, all other capacities being equal. Moreover, the optimal thermal energy storage capacity was found to be equal to 25 and 24 days of average heating demand in two alternative scenarios. Finally, compared to the reference case, the CO2 emissions could be lowered by 15.3%.CO2 savings derive mainly from better utilization of low carbon capacities after interconnecting the systems, as well as from installation of heat pumps and electric boilers.

Mitigation pathways of air pollution from residential emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in China

Air pollution is one of the most harmful consequences of China's rapid economic development and urbanization. Particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) regions, particulate matter concentrations have consistently exceeded the national air quality standards. Over the last years, China implemented ambitious measures to reduce emissions from the power, industry and transportation sectors, with notable success during the 11th and 12th Five Year Plan (FYP) periods. However, such strategies appear to be insufficient to reduce the ambient PM2.5 concentration below the National Air Quality Standard of 35 μg m−3 across the BTH region within the next 15 years. We find that a comprehensive mitigation strategy for the residential sector in the BTH region would deliver substantial air quality benefits. Beyond the already planned expansion of district heating and natural gas distribution in urban centers and the foreseen curtailment of coal use for households, such a strategy would redirect some natural gas from power generation units towards the residential sector. Rural households would replace biomass for cooking by liquid petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity, and substitute coal for heating by briquettes. Jointly, these measures could reduce the primary PM2.5 and SO2 emissions by 28% and 11%, respectively, and the population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations by 13%, i.e., from 68 μg m−3 to 59 μg m−3. We estimate that such a strategy would reduce premature deaths attributable to ambient and indoor air pollution by almost one third.

Automatised and georeferenced energy assessment of an Antwerp district based on cadastral data

Municipalities play a key role in supporting Europe's energy transition towards a low-carbon economy. However, there is a lack of tools to allow municipalities to easily formulate a detailed energy vision for their city. Nevertheless, most municipalities have access to georeferenced cartographic and cadastre information, including that on basic building characteristics. This article describes an innovative method to calculate and display the current hourly thermal energy demand for each building in a district based on basic cartography, cadastre, and degree-day values. The method is divided into two main blocks: (1) input data processing to obtain geometric information (e.g. geolocation, building and facades’ dimensions) and semantic data (e.g. use, year of construction), and (2) district energy assessment to calculate the thermal energy demand using data obtained in block 1. The proposed method has been applied and tested in the historical district of Antwerp. The reliability and thoroughness of the results obtained using the method are demonstrated based on two different validations: (1) comparison of the results with those calculated using an existing dynamic energy simulation tool, and (2) comparison of the results with the real gas consumption of a partial sector of the selected district. The first validation shows that the average difference between the two methodologies is less than 11% for the heating demand, less than 11% for the cooling demand, and less than 15% for the domestic hot water demand. The second validation shows a 24% difference between the real natural gas consumption and that obtained by new methodology. Finally, the results have been presented to the municipality of Antwerp, which plans to use the method to design the district heating expansion within the city centre. Furthermore, sensitivity assessment was used to determine the relevance of the main input parameters considered in this method, such as the base temperature, energy system schedules, window-to-wall ratio, and solar gains.

District Heating Expansion Potential with Low-Temperature and End-Use Heat Savings

District heating has the potential to play a key role in the transition towards a renewable energy system. However, the development towards reduced heat demands threatens the feasibility of district heating. Despite this challenge, opportunity exists in the form of fourth generation district heating, which operates at lower temperatures and enables better renewable integration. This article investigates this challenge by examining the district heating potential within three scenarios: The first is a reference scenario with current heat demand and temperatures, the second includes heat demand savings and the third includes reduced grid temperatures in addition to heat savings. To examine the scenarios, two models are developed. The first is a heat atlas model, in which heat demands are mapped on an address level. The second model assesses district heating expansion potentials based on economic costs. The models are applied using an example case of The Northern Region of Denmark. The article concludes that the district heating potential is highest in the reference scenario. When heat savings are introduced, district heating expansions, in most cases, will not be feasible. Introducing low-temperature district heating modestly increases the feasible expansion potential. This general conclusion is highly dependent on the specific system examined.

The role of district heating in achieving sustainable cities: comparative analysis of different heat scenarios for Geneva

In many European cities, the heat demand remains mostly supplied by individual fossil fuel-fired boilers, contributing to an inefficient and non-sustainable energy system. In order to decrease the fossil fuel consumption in the heating sector, an improvement of energy efficiency and an increase of renewable energy use must be achieved. This study assesses and compares the impacts of implementing different heat strategies regarding both demand and supply side of the heating system, through a case-study in the city of Geneva, Switzerland. Different heat scenarios for 2035 were developed, based on an input/output hourly energy system model which ensures the matching between heat demand and energy resources. This model is coupled with spatial data that enable to identify the areas where district heating could be developed. The results show the impacts of the different strategies regarding the energy supply, the CO2 emissions and the related socio-economic costs. The findings demonstrate the importance of district heating networks, which offer the possibility to use local heat sources that otherwise would be unused due to technical, spatial or economic constraints. Compared to a scenario essentially focused on very high energy savings in buildings, a more flexible scenario, combining district heating expansion and a smaller reduction in heat demand, enables to achieve the same reductions in fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, but with lower socio-economic costs.

Comparison of district heating expansion potential based on consumer-economy or socio-economy

Recent studies show that a high share of district heating is an important part of a future sustainable energy system or smart energy system with a high renewable energy penetration. These studies also show socio-economic benefits of expanding the district heating coverage. However, in order to implement such an expansion, district heating needs to be economically feasible for the heat consumers. This aspect is often not investigated and hence it is unknown if calculations based on consumer-economy, where tax payment is included, will yield the same potential of expansion. This study identifies the differences in the expansion potential of district heating calculated with a socio-economic and a consumer-economic approach, respectively, in a case study of Denmark. By also investigating the consumer-economy of expanding district heating, a deeper insight is obtained of possible locations for expanding district heating under the current framework conditions.

High resolution heat atlases for demand and supply mapping

Significant reductions of heat demand, low-carbon and renewable energy sources, and district heating are key elements in 100% renewable energy systems. Appraisal of district heating along with energy efficient buildings and individual heat supply requires a geographical representation of heat demand, energy efficiency and energy supply. The present paper describes a Heat Atlas built around a spatial database using geographical information systems (GIS). The present atlas allows for per-building calculations of potentials and costs of energy savings, connectivity to existing district heat, and current heat supply and demand. For the entire building mass a conclusive link is established between the built environment and its heat supply. The expansion of district heating; the interconnection of distributed district heating systems; or the question whether to invest in ultra-efficient buildings with individual supply, or in collective heating using renewable energy for heating the current building stock, can be based on improved data.

Swedish biomass strategies to reduce CO2 emission and oil use in an EU context

Swedish energy strategies for transportation, space heating and pulp industries were evaluated with a focus on bioenergy use. The aims were to 1) study trade-offs between reductions in CO2 emission and oil use and between Swedish reductions and EU reductions, 2) compare the potential contributions of individual reduction measures, 3) quantify the total CO2 emission and oil use reduction potentials. Swedish energy efficiency measures reduced EU CO2 emission by 45–59 Mt CO2/a, at current biomass use and constant oil use. Doubling Swedish bioenergy use yielded an additional 40 Mt CO2/a reduction. Oil use could be reduced, but 36–81 kt of reductions in CO2 emission would be lost per PJ of oil use reduction. Swedish fossil fuel use within the studied sectors could be nearly eliminated. The expansion of district heating and cogeneration of heat with a high electricity yield were important measures. Plug-in hybrid electric cars reduced CO2 emission compared with conventional cars, and the difference was larger with increasing oil scarcity. The introduction of black liquor gasification in pulp mills also gave large CO2 emission reduction. Motor fuel from biomass was found to be a feasible option when coal is the marginal fuel for fossil motor fuel production.