Construction Land Expansion Research Articles

Ecosystem Services Response to the Grain-for-Green Program and Urban Development in a Typical Karstland of Southwest China over a 20-Year Period

Southwest China is an ecologically fragile area with a high proportion of karstland and large variations in terrain, and it can be greatly affected by land use change. From 2000 to 2020, with the acceleration of urbanization in the whole country, the macro-scale Grain-for-Green Program (GFGP) has been developed in the karstland of southwest China. This has resulted in the expansion of forest and construction land with a reduction in cultivated land. The response of ecosystem services (ESs) to these changes needs to be investigated. However, there is a lack of in-depth analysis of the karstland of southwest China, and current studies mostly focus on the spatio-temporal variation in individual ESs or how the whole land use change affects ESs. Thus, our study uses an InVEST model and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) to examine the spatio-temporal variation in land use associated with four ESs, namely water conservancy (WC), soil conservancy (SC), carbon sequestration (CS), and habitat quality (HQ). We found that the GFGP area first increased and then decreased, aggregating to 4.48 × 104 km2 from 2000 to 2020. We also observed that from 2000 to 2020, ESs remained stable or gradually increased (despite fluctuations), SC was the most stable, whereas WC, CS, and HQ first decreased and then fluctuated more. This may be related to the destruction of topsoil in the early stages of the GFGP and the relatively weak ES supply capacity of the young trees. Moreover, the response of ecosystem services to the GFGP was spatially heterogeneous, suggesting a strong driving influence of the local environment, mainly caused by the distribution of karstland and terrain, differentiated urbanization levels, and the intensity of the GFGP. Specifically, the relatively significantly positive effects of WC, SC, and CS were found in western and northern cities, and so was the HQ in southeastern cities. On the contrary, the negative impacts of urbanization were found to weaken over time, suggesting the trade-off effect of the GFGP. Our findings would contribute to the development of effective forest management strategies and provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in ecosystem restoration and conservation efforts by exploring the impacts of the GFGP and urbanization on ESs.

Spatial Agglomeration and Coupling Coordination of Population, Economics, and Construction Land in Chinese Prefecture-Level Cities from 2010 to 2020

Exploring the spatial pattern and development strategies of urbanization from the perspective of the multi-dimensional coordination of population, economy, and land is the key to solving the problems of the urban–rural gap and human–land contradiction. This paper analyzed the spatial agglomeration of population, economy, and construction land area growth rates and explored their coordinated development in Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2020 by using the spatial autocorrelation model, elasticity coefficient model, and coupling coordination model. The results are as follows: (1) China’s population, economy, and construction land area were all growing, with the highest economic growth and the lowest population growth, and most prefecture-level cities in central and northeastern China had negative population growth. (2) The growth rates of the population, economy, and construction land in Chinese prefecture-level cities had significant positive spatial clustering characteristics; the spatial agglomeration of the economy was the most prominent and the high-value areas were mainly concentrated in western China. (3) The elasticity coefficients between the population, economy, and construction land in most Chinese prefecture-level cities indicate uneven development of urbanization, manifested as population growth lagging behind construction land expansion and further lagging behind economic development. (4) More than 56% of Chinese prefecture-level cities have uncoordinated development among the population, economy, and construction land mainly distributed in northeast China and central China. The results can provide references and decision-making support for promoting the sustainable development of China’s new urbanization.

Response of Urban Ecosystem Carbon Storage to Land Use/Cover Change and Its Vulnerability Based on Major Function-Oriented Zone Planning

Vigorous emphasis has been placed on optimizing land spatial planning to protect carbon storage and enhance ecosystem resilience. What is the effectiveness of the Major Function-Oriented Zone (MFOZ) planning implemented to achieve this goal in China? Especially in urbanized areas where there are more pronounced conflicts between humans and land. Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration as the target area, this study explored the response of carbon storage to land use/cover change (LUCC) and its vulnerability to ecological service functions under MFOZ planning. The 30 m × 30 m spatially resolved Landsat TM/ETM remote sensing images from 2000 to 2020 were used. The data preprocessing was performed mainly through radiometric calibration, clipping, and reclassification through the ArcGIS 10.7 software. Applying the InVEST model, which uses the LUCC map and carbon storage density of the four carbon pools, including above-ground carbon density, below-ground carbon density, dead organic carbon density, and soil organic carbon density, to evaluate the carbon storage under the current landscape or in the future, the results show that: (1) The BTH ecosystem experienced a carbon storage reduction of about 7.25 × 107 Mg from 2000 to 2020 due to the expansion of construction land, which crowded out cropland. Carbon storage in the BTH showed a high concentration in the “northeast-southwest” direction and a tiny distribution in the “middle-east” direction. (2) From 2015, the initial effects of the MFOZ planning were seen, with the ecological land in the Central Core Zone and Eastern Coastal Development Zone decreasing while the proportion of high-carbon storage areas in the Eastern Coastal Development Zone increasing. (3) Over the two decades, the land use intensity index improved by 4.65 overall, and vulnerability worsened from 2000 to 2015 and was alleviated from 2015 to 2020. This study will provide a scientific reference for optimizing urban spatial land use planning and promoting carbon sequestration in ecosystems.

Data-driven approach to spatiotemporal dynamic risk assessment of urban flooding based on shared socio-economic pathways

Driven by the change in intense land use and land cover (LULC) due to fast urbanization, urban flooding events have become the most frequent and influential hazards over the last few decades. Accurately predicting possible flood-prone locations under the dynamic fluctuations of LULC is crucial for sustainable urban development. However, there has been sparse studies on systematic integration of LULC changes into anticipate urban development scenarios coupled with flooding vulnerability assessment. Therefore, this study proposed a robust and powerful cascade modeling chain consisting of Maximum Entropy, System Dynamics and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation in combination with shared socio-economicpathwaysfor projecting temporal and spatial dynamic changes associated with urban flooding vulnerability. Taking Guangdong Hong Kong Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) as case study, the results showed that the increase in urban flooding was largely caused by the expansion of construction land. Overall, a substantial distinction within the scenarioswas observed and the flooding vulnerability was ranked in the order of SSP126 < SSP245 < SSP585. Under SSP585, the areas with high flooding risk will be expected to increase significantly,accounting for26% of the total areas,and nearly half of the built-upareas are exposed to flooding risk by 2050.Under SSP245, the built-up areas exposed tomedium and high flooding riskwere anticipated to cover nearly a fifth of the total areas.Under SSP126 scenario, nearly no change was predicted in the area with high flooding risk, with only increase of 1%,future urbanization hotspots associated with serious flooding risks will likely to be found on thefringeof the GBA’s construction areas,in line with the extent of construction land expansion.The finding of this study will shed a comprehensive insight into the identification of spatial and temporal distribution of urban flooding vulnerability to facilitate the exploration of flood mitigation measures associated with dynamic changes in urban land use.

Impact of ecological conservation policies on land use and carbon stock in megacities at different stages of development

Urban expansion, especially the construction of megacities, increases carbon emissions and adversely affects the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. However, scientific land-use management policies can increase carbon storage. This study takes two megacities at different stages of development, Beijing and Tianjin, as examples to explore the impact of different ecological conservation scenarios on both urban land use and carbon storage to provide recommendations for the construction planning of large cities with low-carbon development as the goal. Furthermore, we coupled the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model with the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model to simulate land use and carbon storage under a natural development scenario, a planned ecological protection scenario (PEPS), and a policy-based ecological restoration scenario (PERS). From 2000 to 2020, both cities had different degrees of construction land expansion and carbon loss, and Tianjin's dynamic degree of construction land was 0.94% higher than Beijing's, with a carbon loss 183,536.19 Mg higher than Beijing's; this trend of reducing carbon reserves will continue under the natural development scenario (NDS). Under the PEPS and PERS, the carbon stock of both cities increases, and the impact on Tianjin is greater, with an increase of 4.51% and 8.04%, respectively. Under PERS, the carbon stock increases the most, but the dynamic degree of construction land use is negative for both cities. Beijing's carbon stock is 0.40% lower than Tianjin's, which deviates slightly from the trend of urban economic development. Megacities in the rapid development stage can refer to Tianjin, strictly following the ecological protection land planning scope and vigorously implementing ecological restoration policies to effectively increase regional carbon stock. Megacities in the mature stage of development can refer to Beijing, and flexibly implement ecological restoration policies to increase regional carbon stock without affecting the city's economic development.

Study on the spatial spillover effect of land use type change on carbon emissions

Land use change affects the terrestrial carbon cycle, a crucial factor in attaining energy conservation and emission reduction under climate change. This study constructs panel data for thirteen Hangzhou districts and municipalities from 2000 to 2020. Using the spatial Durbin model, it analyzes the spatial spillover effect of land use change on carbon emissions. The results show that the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in Hangzhou continues to increase with positive spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial distribution shows "high-high" and "low-low" clustering. The expansion of construction land is the main reason for the increase in carbon emissions, and the inhibitory effect of water area on carbon emissions is more potent than woodland. The area of cultivated land and construction land has a positive spillover effect on carbon emissions, while the woodland area has a negative spillover effect on carbon emissions. To promote urban low-carbon development, maximizing the spatial spillover effect of land use and establishing a collaborative governance system between districts and counties is crucial.

Quantitative law and scenario-based forecasting of different land use expansion, based on reliability analysis in mountainous areas.

The continuous high-intensity and disorderly expansion of construction land in mountainous areas threatens city development; consequently, the scientific guidance of its sustainable development has become a research hotspot. This work aimed to develop a new theoretical framework for predicting land expansion. Based on DMSP/OLS-Landsat 7 data correction from 2000 to 2019, to ensure data reliability, this study quantitatively analysed the expansion law of land-use and land-cover (LULC) in Huayuan, a typical mountainous area in China. Based on the land expansion law, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to predict various types of LULCs in different scenarios. The results showed that (1) the reliability of LULC under multi-source spatio-temporal data correction reached more than 0.97. (2) The expansion law of industrial and mining land, urban living land, and traffic land is sprawl, while rural living land is enclaved and the expansion direction and intensity are obviously different. (3) The scale of land expansion in the natural-oriented scenario was significantly higher than that in the humanism-oriented scenario, with a higher value of 199.33 hm2. This study expands the case study of land use analysis and prediction, and provides scientific guidance for different land expansion planning, which can avoid the mismatch and waste of land resources. Furthermore, it also deepens the exploration of LULC identification reliability method and enriches the theory of different land use prediction in mountainous areas.

Strategies for Green Space Management in Mountain Cities Based on the Habitat Suitability for Urban Birds Breeding

The reproduction suitability of urban birds reflects the health status and service level of urban ecosystems. Therefore, studying the relationship between the nest density of urban birds and environmental factors has certain reference significance for guiding green space management. In this study, 67 green spaces of Liupanshui city in the Wumeng Mountain Area were selected as study sites. Through the statistics of the number of bird’s nests in the plots in 2020, a stepwise regression analysis was conducted on 10 environment-influencing factors. The results show that the nest density of birds in urban green space is not significantly correlated with the plot size, noise, light pollution, vegetation diversity, proportion of paved land, proportion of native plants, or distance from water body, but is significantly correlated with the canopy coverage of arbor, spatial openness, and distance from non-artificial environment to plot. The research identified the environmental factors affecting nest density, and frames a method to compare the density of bird’s nests in urban green space. Based on this, strategies for the construction and management of green space are put forward, so as to provide reference for ecological city construction and alleviate the correlation between the expansion of urban construction land and the deterioration of bird habitats.

Assessing the impact of urban land expansion on ecosystem carbon storage: A case study of the Changzhutan metropolitan area, China

The extension of urban development can encroach onto ecologically important land, such as forests and farmland, and have a significant impact on regional ecosystem carbon storage. Although there has been extensive research on the carbon storage response to land use changes, limited exploration has been conducted on the changes in ecosystem carbon storage resulting from the expansion of construction land.. In the current research, we analyzed the characteristics involved in the growth related to built-up space in the Changzhutan metropolitan area from 1990 to 2020. Using the InVEST model, we evaluated the resulting effects on ecological carbon sequestration, and using the PLUS model, we simulated the effects of building land expansion under four scenarios: natural development, farmland protection, ecological protection, and comprehensive development. Additionally, our aim was to quantify the possible implications of the development of built-up areas on regional carbon storage. (1) The Changzhutan metropolitan area expanded its construction land by 721.58 km2 from 1990 to 2020, with the expansion mainly concentrated in the urban fringe areas, and the land type mainly changed from forests and farmland to construction land. (2) The ecosystem carbon sequestration in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan metropolitan area decreased by 22.66 × 106 t from 1990 to 2020, with the most significant decrease occurring from 2005 to 2010 when the expansion of construction land was 284.43 km2. (3)By 2030, the Changzhutan metropolitan area is projected to expand its construction land by 312.05 km2, 175.65 km2, 68.21 km2, and 68.90 km2 under the scenarios of natural development, farmland protection, ecological protection, and comprehensive development, respectively. Land use change in each scenario is expected to cause carbon storage losses of 10.01 × 106 t, 11.01 × 106 t, 2.07 × 106 t, and 1.95 × 106t, compared to 2020. (4) Over the investigation time span, expansion of construction ground in metropolitan Changzhutan had a negative impact on regional carbon storage, reaching a stable state from 2005 to 2020, and the effect pertaining to growth from the area of development upon the carbon accumulation of regional ecosystems under the comprehensive protection scenario in 2030 was −0.46. Considering the spatial heterogeneity analysis of regional carbon storage, this scenario would substantially upgrade the functional area surrounding the region and increase the biological system stabilization, which is conducive to achieving carbon neutrality goals.

Spatiotemporal evolution and relationship between construction land expansion and territorial space conflicts at the county level in Jiangsu Province

In rapidly urbanizing areas, intense human development activities and fierce competition for spatial resources have led to apparent territorial space conflicts. This paper selects Jiangsu Province as the study area to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and response relationship between the expansion of county-level construction land and territorial space conflicts from 1985 to 2020 to provide a reference for regional territorial space optimization. The results show that the construction land expansion intensity (CEI) at the county level showed a spatial characteristic of greater power in the southeast than in the northwest. The spatial expansion mode (SEI) was mainly characterized by spread type, with construction land experiencing marginal expansion, the emergence of new independent expansion points, and then the expansion process of agglomeration distribution. From 1985 to 2020, there was a significant increase in territorial space conflicts and an increase in spatial aggregation at the county level. The regions with high space conflicts intensity index (SCII) values and high increase in space conflicts intensity changes (SCIIC) were mainly located in Xuzhou, Nanjing, and at the junction of Changzhou, Wuxi, Suzhou, and Zhenjiang. There was a positive correlation between CEI and SCIIC, and the correlation of positive correlation units increased from south to north. There was a positive correlation between SEI and SCIIC, and the units with a strong positive correlation were mainly located in Xuzhou, Nantong, Changzhou, and Wuxi. The changes in population density and GDP also affect SCIIC. This paper strengthens the understanding of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and related relationships of construction land expansion and territorial space conflicts at the county level over a long time, which can provide a decision-making basis and reference for the regulation of county construction land expansion, territorial space optimization in Jiangsu Province.

Characteristics and Driving Mechanism of Urban Construction Land Expansion along with Rapid Urbanization and Carbon Neutrality in Beijing, China

Escalating urban issues in Beijing call for comprehensive exploration of urban construction land expansion towards the goal of carbon neutrality. Firstly, urban construction land in Beijing during the period 2005–2020 was accurately detected using Landsat images and impervious surface data, and then its expansion characteristics were revealed. Finally, the driving mechanism of urban construction land expansion was explored using geographically and temporally weighted regression from the input–output perspective. The results showed that the expansion speed and intensity of urban construction land in Beijing showed an overall tendency to slow down, and the center of urban expansion shifted to the new urban development zone and ecological function conservation zone. Urban construction land expansion in the central urban area was first scattered and then compact, while that in the new urban development zone and ecological function conservation zone primarily followed an outward pattern. The permanent population, per capita GDP, and per capita retail sales of social consumer goods were the primary driving factors of urban construction land expansion in Beijing, the impacts of which varied significantly among different districts of Beijing. All these results can provide a solid foundation for improving land use policies towards the goal of carbon neutrality in highly urbanized areas.

Dynamics between Population Growth and Construction Land Expansion: Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China

Population growth and construction land expansion’s link to sustainable development has gained attention. This study investigated the urban–rural divergence in the population–construction land relationship in China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2000 to 2020 using census and land-use data. This study utilized an integrated urban–rural framework to discuss reasons for the disparity. The findings suggested the following: (1) A spatial mismatch formed between population distribution and construction land allocation in the YREB from 2000 to 2020. The mismatch gap in rural areas was larger than in urban areas. (2) The urban areas maintained double growth rates in the population and construction land, while rural areas experienced constant population loss accompanied by construction land expansion. (3) An expansive negative decoupling relationship dominated the urban population–land system, while a strong negative decoupling relationship dominated the rural population–land system. (4) Institutional factors, such as land financialization and urban–rural dualism, were major triggers for the mismatch between population and construction land. Policy responses such as a new type of urbanization and rural revitalization strategies can shape the population–land relationship’s evolution. Our comparative analysis of urban and rural areas highlights the population–land relationship’s complexity, promoting sustainable land-use planning in urban–rural spaces.

Dynamic analysis of correlation patterns between urban population and construction land at different administrative levels: The case of Hangzhou megacity

Understanding the urban human-land interaction at multiple administrative levels comprehensively plays an important role in the refined governance and thus provides critical references for urban planning and management. This paper analyzes the relationship between urban population and urban construction land in Hangzhou from perspectives of equilibrium, intensification and coordination at the multi-level during 2010 and 2020. Meanwhile, the underlying mechanism among the urban construction land expansion, population flow and land utilization efficiency with different demographic migration pattern is defined by Kaya identity and further quantitatively deconstructed by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). Regraded with the multi-level evaluation of human-land interactions, the prefectural-level analysis reveals significant reduction in both internal difference and absolute value of per capita urban construction land area, and the growth rate of urban population is 2.24 times faster than that of the urban construction land. At the county-level, the proportion of balanced and intensive county-level units increase by 15.38% and 38.46% respectively. The proportion of the county-level units under coordinated status reaches up to 92.31%. At the township-level, the proportion of intensive township-level units increases by 16.84% and the proportion of the township-level units under coordinated status is up to 64.74%. Furthermore, analysis of the multidimensional combination characteristics of urban human-land interaction is performed with six combination types at the county-level and four combination types at the township-level, which are useful for managers to develop categorized and refined urban development guidance. The driving mechanisms demonstrated that 47% of the townships with net population inflow and 41% of the townships with net population outflow are mainly influenced by the increase of permanent resident population, while the deterioration degree of land utilization efficiency in the former is significantly lower than that in the latter. This result implies that the townships in the core urban areas present the better performance in the improvement of land utilization efficiency than those in the western areas of Hangzhou. The exploration will provide references for coordinating the rational allocation of land resources and optimizing the regional human-land relationship.

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Values and Topography-Driven Effects Based on Land Use Change: A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is rich in natural and marine resources, and it is scientifically valuable to study the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of the ecosystem service values (ESVs) of the GBA for the governance and conservation of its ecosystems. Based on the land use changes in the GBA from 2000 to 2020, the ESVs in the GBA were measured at the grid scale, and the Markov model was used to predict the ESVs in 2030; the calculated results were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the ESVs during the 30-year period, while the driving role of the topographic factors on the ESVs is revealed through the construction of the geographically weighted regression model (GWR). The results show the following: (1) During the 20-year period, the area of arable land and water in the GBA fluctuated greatly, with the area decreasing year by year and shifting mainly into construction land; in terms of shifting the center of gravity of the land, and the center of gravity of the grassland and unused land shifted the greatest distance due to the expansion of construction land, with the center of gravity shifting westward as a whole. (2) The ecosystem services (ESs) in the GBA show obvious aggregation in the spatial distribution, with the total ESVs decreasing year by year. Among them, the areas with an increasing total value are mainly located in the cities of Zhaoqing and Huizhou in the GBA, accounting for 27%, and the areas with a decreasing total value year by year are mainly located in the dense urban areas in the central part of the GBA, accounting for 35%, and the area is increasing, indicating that the habitat quality is deteriorating, and the model prediction shows that the value of ecosystem services in 2030 have a decreasing trend under the development of the natural state. (3) Topographic factors have a significant influence on the ESVs, and in terms of spatial distribution, the areas with the strongest effect are distributed in the northwestern and northeastern parts of the GBA, and the main uses for the land are wood land, arable land, water and the area of the water–land intersection near the sea.

Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Hangzhou Bay Area Based on InVEST and PLUS Models

The study of the relationship between the land use and carbon storage of ecosystem services is of great significance to regional carbon emission management. It can provide an important scientific basis for the management of regional ecosystem carbon pools and the formulation of policies for emission reduction and foreign exchange increases. The carbon storage component of the InVEST model and the PLUS model were used to study and predict the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of carbon storage in the ecological system and their relationship with land use type for the periods of 2000-2018 and 2018-2030 in the research area. The results were as follows:the carbon storage in 2000, 2010, and 2018 in the research area was 7.250×108, 7.227×108, and 7.241×108 t, respectively, which suggested that it first decreased and then increased. The change in land use pattern was the main cause of changed carbon storage in the ecological system, and the fast expansion of construction land resulted in the decrease of carbon storage. With its correspondence to land use patterns, the carbon storage in the research area demonstrated significant spatial differentiation and was characterized by low storage in the northeast and high storage in the southwest according to the demarcation line of carbon storage. The resulting prediction was that the carbon storage in 2030 will be 7.344×108 t, with an increase of 1.42% compared with that in 2018, owing mainly to increased forest land. Soil type and population were the two driving factors with the highest contribution to construction land, and soil type and DEM had the highest contribution to forest land.

Optimization of rural settlements based on rural revitalization elements and rural residents’ social mobility: A case study of a township in western China

Rural settlements are spatial carriers of rural social and economic activities. The optimization of rural settlements is of great significance to comprehensively promote rural revitalization. Considering that the optimization of rural settlements is a systematic engineering of the optimal allocation of rural revitalization elements and a social engineering of rural residents’ willingness, this paper explores the optimization of rural settlements based on the elements of rural revitalization and rural residents’ social mobility. After constructing the theoretical framework of the internal relationship among rural revitalization, rural residents’ social mobility and optimization of rural settlements, we evaluate the development vitality of rural settlements from the perspectives of industry, talent, culture, organization and ecology, and measure the network centrality of rural settlements based on rural residents’ social mobility. Moreover, we measure the coordination level of development vitality and network centrality to identify rural settlements’ optimization types. The level of the talent element is the lowest among the five revitalization elements. The rural settlements with high development vitality and network centrality are mainly distributed around the central town and near the traffic trunk lines. The rural settlements within the boundary of the expansion of urban construction land are classified as suburban integration, and the rural settlements with the characteristics of cultural relics or ethnic minorities are determined as characteristic protection. The remaining rural settlements are classified into three types (i.e., agglomeration and upgrading (high coordination), maintaining status quo (basic coordination), relocation and evacuation (endangered coordination)) according to the coordination level. Relocation and evacuation rural settlements are not suitable for villagers’ production and living and we encourage these villagers migrate to rural settlements that are more strongly connected in the residents’ social mobility network. Based on these findings, this paper provides a decision-making basis for rural planning and proposes an analytical framework for the optimization of rural settlements.

Multi-scenario simulation analysis of cultivated land based on PLUS model—a case study of Haikou, China

Land-use changes have received increasing attention since the 1990s. Cultivated land is a vital land resource with both natural and economic features. Socioeconomic development profoundly affects the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land. In turn, the spatiotemporal change of cultivated land also reflects the socioeconomic development trend. This study took Haikou City, which has the highest degree of urbanization in Hainan Province, as the study area, analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of its cultivated land resources during the past 20 years of rapid socioeconomic development, and predicted the future spatiotemporal evolution trends of its cultivated land resources on this basis, to provide scientific reference for the rational use and sustainable development of the cultivated land resources in Haikou. This study applied the single land-use dynamic degree (SLUDD) and land-use transfer matrix to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land in Haikou from 2000 to 2020. The patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model was introduced to predict the patterns of cultivated land under different development scenarios in 2030. The results showed that: (1) although rapid socioeconomic development has contributed to Haikou's urbanization rate over the past 20 years, the accompanying expansion of construction land has caused damage to cultivated land resources, especially in urban suburbs. Site conditions, differential land benefits, and urban economic radiation may be potential influencing factors leading to the loss of peri-urban cultivated land; (2) it was verified that the PLUS model applies to the land-use patterns prediction in Haikou; and (3) the simulation results of both natural and urban development scenarios not only predicted the continued loss of cultivated land in the original zone but also exposed new sites of cultivated land loss. Although construction land expansion is an inevitable trend, there is still hope that the expansion rate can be controlled, for example, under the cultivated land conservation scenario. The simulation results of the three scenarios have essential reference values for the future maintenance of cultivated land resource security in Haikou.

Integrating ecosystem service value into the evaluation of sustainable land use in fast-growing cities: A case study of Qingdao, China

Integrating ecosystem service value (ESV) into the evaluation system for sustainable land use (SLU) in fast-growing cities is an effective way to implement Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 15 and 11 of the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Taking ESV as the intermediate parameter, six sustainability indicators were developed to evaluate SLU from two dimensions: sustainable land ecosystem services and economic development. These indicators are the total supply and demand index (RT) of ecosystem services, the potential supply and demand index (RP) of ecosystem services, the ecological cost index per unit of GDP (RC), the eco-economic coordination index (RD), the eco-economic equilibrium index (RE), and the ESV-based sustainable land use index (RS). Empirical research was conducted in Qingdao, a fast-growing city in eastern China, to verify the validity of the indicators. Five sets of Landsat TM/ETM/OLI remote sensing images from 1996, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2017 were used to analyze the land use and ESV changes in Qingdao. The results indicate that land use changes in fast-growing cities significantly affect the ESV. The decrease in the area of ecological land and the expansion of construction land caused by rapid urbanization reduced ESV. The RC and RD of Qingdao were sustainable, while the RT and RP were unsustainable, and the RE showed volatility, which reduced the evaluation level of SLU in Qingdao from extremely strongly sustainable (L1) to moderately sustainable (L3). Thus, it is necessary to improve the ESV of Qingdao. Optimization strategies for promoting SLU in Qingdao are proposed based on the results, confirming that the evaluation provides guidance for land use management.

Change of urban and rural construction land and driving factors of arable land occupation.

Under the background of global urbanization, the continuous expansion and extensive utilization of urban and rural construction land has caused a large amount of arable land to be occupied, which seriously threatens national food security. This paper describes the spatio-temporal patterns of urban and rural construction land expansion and its occupation of arable land by using the urban and rural construction land expansion intensity, the urban and rural construction land expansion intensity difference index, and geo-detector model. It also explores the mechanisms through which the arable land was occupied. Results showed that construction land in both urban and rural areas expanded over the period 2009-2018 despite a large number of rural and urban migrants, and the major contributor to the rapid urbanization in China. This dual expansion could mainly be attributed to the tendency of these migrants to keep or even enlarge their rural construction land, which also resulted in a severer arable land loss than that caused by the expansion of urban construction land. Second, the rate of arable land occupied by urban and rural construction land in Henan province has been gradually slowing down, whereas the expansion of rural construction land is most dependent on arable land occupation. Third, according to the geo-detector model, the relationship between urbanization level and arable land occupied by urban and rural construction was the strongest, followed by the growth rate of fixed asset investment and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries in GDP.

Forecast of policy-driven land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in China: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

Land use change is an important factor affecting the performance of ecosystem services (ESs). Therefore, understanding the impact of land use change on ESs is of great significance for promoting the coordination of regional human-land relationships. In this study, random forest and cellular automata were used to simulate and predict the characteristics of land use change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and diversified land use evolution patterns were formed in combination with China's strategic development needs. The effects of habitat suitability on ESs were analyzed by using a multiscenario land use change model. The results demonstrated that the driving factors selected in this article had a good induction effect on the law of land use evolution, and the simulated land use change had high credibility. Under the mode of ecological protection and cultivated land protection, the expansion of construction land was greatly affected and was not conducive to social and economic development. Under the natural evolution mode, farmland was greatly encroached upon, and food security was greatly threatened. The regional coordination model had relative advantages, and all kinds of land use needs were met to a certain extent. The water production function of ESs was strong, but the carbon storage function was weak. The relationship between the habitat suitability index and ES changes under land use change revealed that there were significant differences in ES changes caused by ecological quality changes in mountainous and plain areas. This study provides a reference for promoting social and economic development and ecosystem integrity. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1473-1484. © 2023 SETAC.