Exogenous Events Research Articles

Prominence over proximity? Terror attacks’ impact on party preferences

AbstractHow does a terrorist attack affect party preferences? Based on existing theories, we would either expect incumbent parties to benefit because of a rally-effect, or populist radical right parties (PRRPs) to gain due to a radicalization of voters’ preferences. These competing theories are tested with a unique dataset of a large sample of voters’ responses on a Voting Advice Application. We do so using a novel way to leverage exogenous events using big public opinion data. We show that a terrorist attack has a positive effect for the main incumbent party, even when voters’ positions on the issues owned by the PRRPs become more radicalized. This means that during crises, voters rally around the flag and prefer prominence over policy proximity.

Dynamic decision-making when ambiguity attitudes depend on exogenous events

Dynamic decision-making when ambiguity attitudes depend on exogenous events

Role of OTC options in stock price efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese market

AbstractWe examine the effect of Chinese OTC equity options on the underlying stock information efficiency by using the standardisation of the OTC options market as an exogenous event. The results show that, due to the tight short‐sale constraints, the introduction of OTC stock options can widen the divergence of opinion about the stock price, and thus reduce the price efficiency. The significantly lower margin‐debt ratio exhibited by optioned stocks supports the argument that OTC stock options act as a substitute for margin trading. Further analysis reveals that optioned stocks are more speculative, but there is no significant change in liquidity.

Assessing response shifts and true changes in longitudinal evaluation research: the impact of the first COVID-19 lockdown on subjective well-being in Italy

Latent constructs measured at multiple points in time are frequently used in social and evaluation research to assess the impact of interven-tions or relevant phenomena on individuals and groups (e.g. training programs, policies, exogenous events, etc.). However, researchers of-ten do not consider the accuracy of such models depends on the as-sumption of longitudinal measurement invariance (LMI), which states that repeatedly measured latent variables should effectively represent the same construct in the same metric over time. Non-invariance can incur when individuals recalibrate their standards of measurement, reprioritize their values or reconceptualize the target construct as a di-rect consequence of the intervention or the phenomena under study. Such response shifts may obfuscate true changes in the latent means of the construct, thus leading to inaccurate inferences. The present study aims to explore this issue by first offering a detailed description of the potential sources of response shifts and the general procedures used for LMI testing in a structural equation modelling framework. An em-pirical application is then carried out on a sample of Italian respond-ents interviewed before and immediately after the COVID-19 lock-down and, based on the results of the analysis, practical implications for evaluation research using latent outcome variables in a longitudinal setting are discussed.

The centrality of Italian airports before and after the COVID-19 period: what happened?

Air transport in Italy accounts for around 1,8% of national production and employment. This sector has undergone a series of transformations during the recent pandemic period. The main focus of this research is the analysis of the network of national airports with more than 50.000 passengers per year both outbound and inbound and the estimation of their centrality in the presence of significant exogenous events such as the recent pandemic. The change in centrality was examined over the period 2019-2021. The methods of network analysis were applied and the results show an increased and growing centrality of some southern airports in the network, a downsizing of Rome Fiumicino airport during the pandemic period and a marginalisation in the national network of some smaller airports in the centre-north. This first step in the research lays the foundations for better actions to promote sustainable transport planning, considering local authorities, airport managers and airlines.

Incomplete Gamma Integrals for Deep Cascade Prediction Using Content, Network, and Exogenous Signals

The behavior of information cascades (such as retweets) has been modeled extensively. While point process-based generative models have long been in use for estimating cascade growths, deep learning has greatly enhanced the integration of diverse features and signals. We observe two significant temporal signals in cascade data that have not been reported or exploited to our knowledge. First, the popularity of the cascade root is known to influence cascade size strongly; but we find that the effect falls off rapidly with time. Second, we find a measurable positive correlation between the novelty of the root content (with respect to a streaming external corpus) and the relative size of the resulting cascade. Responding to these observations, we propose <monospace>GammaCas</monospace>, a new cascade growth model as a parametric function of time, which combines deep influence signals from content (e.g., tweet text), network features (e.g., followers of the root user), and exogenous event sources (e.g., online news). Specifically, our model processes these signals through a customized recurrent network, whose states then provide the parameters of the cascade rate function, which is integrated over time to predict the cascade size. The network parameters are trained end-to-end using observed cascades. <monospace>GammaCas</monospace> outperforms seven recent and diverse baselines significantly on a large-scale dataset of retweet cascades coupled with time-aligned online news &#x2014; it beats the best baseline with 18.98&#x0025; increase in terms of Kendall&#x0027;s <inline-formula><tex-math notation="LaTeX">$\tau$</tex-math></inline-formula> correlation and a reduction of 19.2 in Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Extensive ablation and case studies unearth interesting insights regarding retweet cascade dynamics.

Koopman-inspired approach for identification of exogenous anomalies in nonstationary time-series data

In many scenarios, it is necessary to monitor a complex system via a time-series of observations and determine when anomalous exogenous events have occurred so that relevant actions can be taken. Determining whether current observations are abnormal is challenging. It requires learning an extrapolative probabilistic model of the dynamics from historical data, and using a limited number of current observations to make a classification. We leverage recent advances in long-term probabilistic forecasting, namely Deep Probabilistic Koopman, to build a general method for classifying anomalies in multi-dimensional time-series data. We also show how to utilize models with domain knowledge of the dynamics to reduce type I and type II error. We demonstrate our proposed method on the important real-world task of global atmospheric pollution monitoring, integrating it with NASA’s Global Earth Observing System Model. The system successfully detects localized anomalies in air quality due to events such as COVID-19 lockdowns and wildfires.

Is Bitcoin used to evade financial sanction?

Using Russian-Ukraine war as an exogenous event, we investigate whether Bitcoin is used to evade financial sanctions. We follow three avenues to explore this problem. First, we investigate Bitcoin trading volume pre- and post- Russia's invasion. Second, we explored price and return relationships between Bitcoin and other major asset classes during the same period. Lastly, we investigate the associations between Bitcoin trading volume and Russia oil export by sea. Overall, our results suggest that Bitcoin is not used to evade sanctions in large scale.

Does political inspection promote corporate green innovation?

Green innovation is an effective approach to breaking resource availability and environment protection constraints that firms face. China has set up a political inspection team to fight against corruption and deepen state-owned firm reform in recent years. From 2013 to 2015, inspections, as exogenous events, made great achievements in regulating firm behavior. This regulation may exert an effect on green and innovative development in China. Therefore, we adopt the event of political inspection of state-owned firms as a quasi-natural experiment and examine the impact of such an inspection on firm green innovation using data from listed Chinese state-owned enterprises. Findings show that political inspection enhances corporate green innovation. The effect is more pronounced for firms with higher executive compensation and institutional ownership. Political inspection promotes firm green innovation by alleviating financing constraints and reducing rent-seeking. Our study suggests that political inspection, as an external shock, is key to promoting firm green innovation.

Generation Z, tourism and hospitality: the legacy of COVID-19

PurposeAs Generation Z (Gen Z) represents one of the most important segments in the travel and tourism sector, the present work aims to analyse Gen Z's behaviour in a post-pandemic scenario. In particular, the present work deepens the factors that may influence future accommodation choices.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses data from a web-based questionnaire targeting Italian tourists belonging to Generation Z, reaching 221 complete responses. After the statistical analysis of the sample, an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was then carried out.FindingsData provided evidence about the main factors affecting Gen Z tourist choices. In particular, these young consumers are positively influenced by the information (especially from institutional and verifiable sources), more flexible purchase terms (e.g. full refund in case of cancellation due to contagion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and digital payments) and structure features (e.g. cleanliness, sanitisation, digitalisation and sustainability).Originality/valueThis work attempts to contribute to the academic literature by looking at the tourism experience from Gen Z's perspective. From this angle, this work underlines the influence some factors exert on the final accommodation choice, especially in the presence of exogenous events. Moreover, as this study focusses on a post-pandemic scenario, the study seeks to provide valuable indications, both at the theoretical and managerial level, for the tourism sector to boost the sector's recovery and prepare the sector to face similar events.

Feed Thy Neighbour: How Social Ties Shape Spillover Effects of Cash Transfers on Food Security and Nutrition

Abstract Economic development in Sub Saharan African countries is strongly tied to households' ability to cope with exogenous events affecting their well-being. Using data from the Lesotho Child Grant Program (CGP) we provide evidence on the presence of any spillover effect of the program on non-eligible households living in treated villages and whether households' food security and nutrition are influenced by the presence of a particular network structure. We take advantage of information on each household's received and disbursed monetary transfers to build a set of indicators representing quantitatively and qualitatively the network architecture of each household. We find relevant spillover effects of the CGP on the food security and nutrition of non-eligible households living in treated villages and embedded in a social network. Geographical proximity seems to be strongly tied to positive spillover effects for food security and access to food.

Anti-corruption and within-firm pay gap: Evidence from China

In light of the exogenous events surrounding the anti-corruption campaign in China, out study arms to examine the impact of anti-corruption on the within-firm pay gap between executives and employees. Our findings suggest that anti-corruption campaign leads to a reduction in the within-firm pay gap. Meanwhile, out analysis reveals that this effect is particularly notable in large-scale firms, firms with a lower level of media attention, firms operating in competitive industries, and firms operating in poor legal environments. Furthermore, our research highlights that the reduction in the pay gap can be attributed to the alleviation of agent problems through anti-corruption measures. The results of our study underscore the importance of anti-corruption as an external governance factor in reducing the within-firm pay gap and addressing agency problems.

Environmental awareness and shareholder proposals: the case of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster

Purpose The authors study the effect of increasing environmental awareness on shareholders' activism. Specificallly, this study aims to examine whether growing environmental awareness is reflected in more aggressive environmental shareholder proposals. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill disaster as an exogenous event that increased shareholders' environmental awareness. This study analyzes the spill’s effect on the tone of proposals about environmental issues and nonenvironmental topics. Findings After the disaster, the tone of environmental proposals (i.e. the treatment group) is significantly more negative. In contrast, the tone of nonenvironmental proposals (i.e. the control group) is unaffected. This study interprets this finding as direct evidence that the oil spill led to increased shareholder environmental activism through proposals that targeted the environmental risks surrounding the business more aggressively. By contrast, this study finds no effect of the oil spill on the tone of managers' responses to the proposals, consistent with managers refraining from emphasizing environmental threats. Originality/value Anecdotal evidence and recent studies suggest a link between environmental disasters and shareholder pressure for corporate change. However, no prior research has investigated the channel through which shareholders could have exerted such pressure or has looked for direct evidence of it in the negotiations between shareholders and managers. By finding such evidence in shareholder proposals, this study fills in this gap.

Broadcast information diffusion processes on social media networks: exogenous events lead to more integrated public discourse

Abstract Understanding information diffusion is vital to explaining the good, bad, and ugly impacts of social media. Two types of processes govern information diffusion: broadcasting and viral spread. Viral spreading is when a message is diffused by peer-to-peer social connections, whereas broadcasting is characterized by influences that can come from outside of the peer-to-peer social network. How these processes shape public discourse is not well understood. Using a simulation study and real-world Twitter data (10,155 users, 18,000,929 tweets) gathered during 2020, we show that broadcast spreading is associated with more integrated discourse networks compared to viral spreading. Moreover, discourse oscillates between extended periods of segregation and punctuated periods of integration. These results defy simple interpretations of good or bad, and instead suggest that information diffusion dynamics on social media have the capacity to disrupt or amplify both prosocial and antisocial content.

Environmental regulations and green innovation of enterprises: quasi-experimental evidence from China.

Whether environmental regulations are conducive to improving green innovation in water pollution-intensive enterprises (WPIEs) is of guiding significance for China's protection of the water ecosystem environment and sustainable economic development. This study regards the implementation of the "Ten-point Water Plan" (TWP) policy in 2015 as a purely exogenous event for enterprises and employs a quasi-experimental method to fill this gap based on the panel data of Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2019. The results reveal that TWP policy has significant negative effects on the green innovation of WPIEs, the main mechanism of which is increased compliance costs. In addition, a heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative effect is stronger for green innovation activities with higher costs and for WPIEs subject to stricter environmental regulations. This paper provides new evidence against the weak Porter hypothesis and implies that WPIEs are likely to purchase technologies and equipment to reduce wastewater emissions rather than green innovation, which means incentive-based measures should be taken to foster green innovation in the environmental policymaking process.

A CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS OF INTERNET POLICIES: TRENDS IN INTERNET-RELATED BILLS IN BRAZIL, CHILE, AND THE UNITED STATES (1997-2021)

This paper analyzes trends and shifts in internet policy focus over time through a cross-country comparative lens. We employ computational and qualitative methods to map patterns in internet regulation across Brazil, Chile, and the United States over 24 years of data on proposed legislation (1997 to 2021). The study analyzes (1) What issues are lawmakers discussing in their proposed Internet-related legislation? (2) What are the cross-country thematic trends and patterns in Internet policy over time? (3) Can we identify national/transnational turning points in such trends? The cross-country historical analysis of internet-related bills helps us understand how responsive the lawmakers in the American continent are. By contrasting the bills’ policy themes with endogenous and exogenous events and forces in the region, we identify if lawmakers are anticipating future problems and then proposing regulation to meet those ends or if they are reacting after problems occur. More than that, we compare the lawmakers’ responsiveness between the North and South divide. Further, by contrasting the volume of bills per policy theme, we identify what issues are more salient to the lawmakers from the different countries. This information helps us analyze if the drivers for internet regulation in the region differ, and how different are the responses to similar issues between countries and between lawmakers from different ends of the political spectrum.

Does "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area" Promote OFDI Reverse Innovation Spillovers in Provinces Along the Line?

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities with provincial status across the country from 2011 to 2016, this paper explores the impact of Initiative of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area on the development of OFDI reverse innovation spillovers in the provinces along the line. This paper empirically tests the impact of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Initiative on the development level of OFDI reverse innovation spillovers in the provinces along the line by using the difference-in-differences method. The study found that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Initiative has effectively improved the development level of OFDI reverse innovation spillovers in the provinces along the line in China. From the dynamic test results, it can be seen that the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Initiative has had an impact on the development of OFDI reverse innovation spillovers in the provinces along the line since it was proposed, and the policy effect has gradually strengthened. The robustness of the regression results is further verified by eliminating the 11 provinces of the Yangtze River Economic Belt to eliminate the impact of exogenous events, which shows that the promotion of the policy of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Region on OFDI in the provinces along the line is not affected by the pre-policy factors, nor by other events. The conclusion of this paper has important implications for the optimization of regional industrial policies and the development of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao in the background of dual circulation.

Agenda Setting in Media Coverage of Natural Disaster Exogenous Events: The 9.5 Sichuan Ganzi Luding Earthquake as an Example

Disaster reporting, as a special kind of news reporting, requires the media to assume more moral and social responsibilities. At present, the development of disaster reporting faces many dilemmas, such as the substitution of traditional media by new media, the difference between mainstream media and self-media communication, and the guidance of public opinion in public discussion under disaster situations. This paper analyses the disaster coverage related to the 9.5 Sichuan Luding earthquake from a communication perspective in the hope of reflecting the current dilemma of disaster coverage development. Based on big data analysis of public opinion related to the event, it explores the effect of media agenda setting on the guidance of audiences and related discussions. Through the study of the existing disaster coverage, the defects of the current disaster coverage in our country are summarized, and the corresponding improvement measures are put forward.

Editor's Note

Editor's Note

Inherited Patience and the Taste for Environmental Quality

Environmental-quality and environmental-protection actions vary worldwide. Investing in environmental quality often involves intertemporal trade-offs, with present costs and future rewards. A growing body of literature finds that patience, a measure of time preference, is positively associated with pro-environmental policies, attitudes, and behaviors. However, much of this work relies on contemporaneous measures of patience that may be jointly determined with environmental attitudes, and thus may give rise to spurious correlations, calling the validity of these results into question. This paper contributes to the discussion on the determinants of environmental quality by addressing this methodological concern. We propose an individual measure of patience in the form of inherited cultural values, which is derived from information on the countries of origin of an individual’s parents. We argue that this inherited-patience measure is plausibly an exogenous event in an individual’s life. Using this measure, we find a strong, positive relationship between inherited patience and concern for the environment. Our results are robust to the inclusion of variables reflecting an individual’s demographic and socioeconomic status, religious identity, trust, political ideology, and location, as well as period and country fixed effects.