Exit Rates Research Articles

Committing to Grow: Privatizations and Firm Dynamics in East Germany

This paper investigates a unique policy designed to maintain employment during the privatization of East German firms after the fall of the Iron Curtain. The policy required new owners of the firms to commit to employment targets, with penalties for non-compliance. Using a dynamic model, we highlight three channels through which employment targets impact firms: distorted employment decisions, increased productivity, and higher exit rates. Our empirical analysis, using a novel dataset and instrumental variable approach, confirms these findings. We estimate a 22% points higher annual employment growth rate, a 14% points higher annual productivity growth, and a 3.6% points higher probability of exit for firms with binding employment targets. Our calibrated model further demonstrates that without these targets, aggregate employment would have been 15% lower after 10 years. Additionally, an alternative policy of productivity investment subsidies proved costly and less effective in the short term.

Examining entry and exit rates of poverty in Turkey: A dynamic probit regression analysis

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to add to the current poverty dynamics literature by investigating the underlying causes of poverty persistence in Turkey, with an emphasis on both entry and exit rates.
 Methods: The study analyzes data from the Turkish Statistical Institute's "Survey on Income and Living Conditions" from 2018 to 2021 using dynamic probit models. This large dataset, which gives a detailed picture of socioeconomic situations, helps in properly understanding the complex aspects influencing poverty rates.
 Findings: The analysis reveals significant poverty persistence in Turkey, influenced by factors such as gender, marital status, employment, and health conditions. According to the research, these variables frequently interact, forming a complex structure that maintains poverty throughout the country.
 Implications: The findings necessitate targeted interventions to address persistent poverty, considering the diverse influencing factors. This could lead to a reduction in poverty rates and improved socioeconomic conditions for individuals.
 Originality/Value: This study offers a unique perspective on poverty dynamics in Turkey, focusing on both entry and exit rates. It provides valuable insights for those formulating policies or strategies aimed at poverty reduction, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive approach to poverty alleviation.

Why is care use declining? Changes in residential long-term care between 1999 and 2018 in Finland

Abstract Background Residential long-term care (LTC) coverage has declined in many countries over the past decade. However, it is unclear to what extent the decline is attributable to a smaller proportion of older people entering or shorter time spent in LTC, and if the change has been similar across sociodemographic groups. This study analysed changes in life expectancy in LTC at age 65, the proportion ever entering, and years spent in LTC among those who entered, and quantified the contributions of changing rates of admission, mortality and exit to the change in life expectancy in LTC. Methods We analysed linked population register data that covered all Finnish residents aged 65+ between 1999 and 2018 (n = 2,016,987) on dates of entries to and exits from LTC, dates of death, and sociodemographic characteristics. We estimated transition rates between home, LTC and death, and calculated multistate life tables by sex, marital status and education across four periods 1999-2003, 2004-2008, 2009-2013 and 2014-2018. Results Life expectancy in LTC increased from 0.75 to 0.89 years among men and from 1.61 to 1.83 years among women between 1999-2003 and 2003-2008. The increase was mainly attributable to declining rates of exit from LTC, and thereby longer time spent in LTC for those who entered. Life expectancy in LTC started declining in 2009-2013 and reached 0.80 years among men and 1.51 years among women in 2014-2018. The decline mainly related to an increasing death rate in LTC. In all periods, declining mortality in the community contributed to an increase in life expectancy in LTC, but this was offset by steady declines in admission rates. Life expectancy in LTC changed similarly across marital status and education groups. Conclusions Recent declines in LTC use - driven by lower rates of entry and higher mortality in LTC when entered - imply that across sociodemographic strata it is has become more difficult to find LTC placement and older people enter LTC in ever worse health. Key messages • Overall LTC use increased in early 2000s despite declining admission rates. The increase was mainly due to declining exit rate from LTC indicating longer time spent in LTC for those who entered. • The recent shortening of life expectancy in LTC derives from entering LTC at a later stage and closer to death, indicating greater level of disability and worse health at the time of entry.

Old-Age Labor Exit Rates and the Impact of Social Security Programs in Iran

Old-Age Labor Exit Rates and the Impact of Social Security Programs in Iran

Use and effectiveness of wildlife exits designed for ocelots and other mesocarnivores on a south Texas highway

Movement is a key component of survival and reproduction, often causing wildlife to cross heavily trafficked highways, resulting in road mortalities by oncoming vehicles. Fencing and crossing structures are commonly regarded as effective mitigation structures to reduce these mortalities. In south Texas, ten wildlife exits (WE) were installed along State Highway 100 in conjunction with existing mitigation structures to provide the US endangered ocelot (Leopardus pardalis), a medium-sized spotted wild cat, a safe option to escape the right of way (ROW). The objectives of this study were to determine the effectiveness and species usage and to estimate the percentage of wildlife that crossed back into the habitat via a WE. Camera traps were used for monitoring with one on the roadside and one on the habitat side of each WE and ten at adjacent right-of-way (ROW) sites. Entry and exit rates through WE were calculated to determine where wildlife was entering and exiting the roadway. The total number of individuals for each target species was counted for all entries (H-R) and exits (R-H) at any mitigation structure within 200 m of an exit and was compared to those using a WE. Results showed that ten species – jackrabbit (Lepus californicus), bobcat (Lynx rufus), coyote (Canis latrans), domestic cat (Felis catus), cottontail (Sylvilagus floridanus), skunk (Mephitis mephitis), raccoon (Procyon lotor), opossum (Didelphis virginiana), armadillo (Dasypus novemcinctus), and weasel (Mustela frenata) – used a WE to return to the habitat. Coyote and bobcat usage at WE increased over time, with bobcats first exhibiting usage within 30 days while coyotes first used WE at 180 days. PERMANOVA showed significantly different assemblages of nine target species between the habitat side and all other groups along the roadside. The species assemblage using WE to escape the roadway was also significantly different from those using the WE to enter the roadway. Approximately 43% of bobcats, a surrogate species for the ocelot, used a WE to escape the ROW. Information on the effectiveness of these novel structures will be useful in the development of future WE to optimize placement and design.

Banking diversity and firms’ exit: A study on Italian data

With Italian data, this paper investigates the role of institutional banking diversity on firms’ exit. Using the Gini–Simpson index, a measure of biodiversity drawn from ecological sciences, we find that banking diversity would have reduced firms’ exit rates in the period under investigation (2009–2020), and such a beneficial effect appears sharper for the years of the last financial–sovereign crisis. Both of these findings seem to support the “biodiversity argument” pioneered by Ayadi et al. (2009, 2010), stating that – beyond the merits of any particular bank institutional model – it is indeed the coexistence of a mix of different credit institutions that matters in favouring the financing of the real economy, especially in a scenario characterized by financial turmoil and uncertainty. As a policy recommendation, authorities should promote regulations that, avoiding bias towards a specific bank model, aim to preserve and promote biodiversity in the banking sector.

Modelling the exiting of South African producers from commercial agricultural production – an agent-based model

ABSTRACT This paper explores the prospects of commercial producers who would be willing to exit voluntarily in the near future to make land available in the market. In addition, it also considers what factors are restricting the acceleration of this rate of exit from a land-supply perspective with respect to barriers to exit. The prospect of structural change from such acceleration is also explored using three scenarios. An agent-based mathematical model is used to implement the three scenarios. This model is constructed from a dataset of 450 commercial producers across South Africa. The results suggest that a reasonable amount of arable land could be available for redistribution, with only modest structural change regarding animal production, despite drastic alterations in veld. These results provide some guidelines on how assistance for struggling producers can make land available for efficient producers, which could make the sector stronger. All potential exiting commercial producers have common reasons for doing so, which could be used to initiate a positively inclined, structured discussion on land supply.

Medicare Advantage Enrollment and Disenrollment Among Persons With Alzheimer Disease and Related Dementias

Large enrollment growth has been observed in the Medicare Advantage program, but less is known about enrollment patterns among persons with Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD). To evaluate patterns in Medicare Advantage enrollment and disenrollment among beneficiaries with or without ADRD. This cross-sectional study used 6 national data sources between January 1, 2011, and December 31, 2018. Analyses were performed between June 2021 and August 2022. The cohort comprised US Medicare beneficiaries with acute or postacute care utilization between 2013 and 2018. ADRD diagnosis from an acute or postacute care encounter Medicare data source. Enrollment in Medicare Advantage, disenrollment from Medicare Advantage to traditional Medicare, and contract exit (leaving a Medicare Advantage contract for traditional Medicare or a different Medicare Advantage contract). The 32 796 872 Medicare beneficiaries in the cohort had a mean (SD) age of 74.0 (12.5) years and included 18 228 513 females (55.6%). Enrollment in Medicare Advantage among beneficiaries with ADRD increased from 24.7% (95% CI, 24.7%-24.8%) in 2013 to 33.0% (95% CI, 32.9%-33.1%) in 2018, an absolute increase of 8.3 percentage points and a 33.4% relative increase after adjusting for demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and utilization and including county fixed effects. Among beneficiaries without ADRD, enrollment in Medicare Advantage increased by 8.2 percentage points from 27.6% (95% CI, 27.6%-27.6%) in 2013 to 35.8% (95% CI, 35.8%-35.8%) in 2018, a 29.7% relative increase over the study period. Beneficiaries with ADRD were 1.4 times as likely to disenroll from their Medicare Advantage contract to traditional Medicare (4.4% vs 3.2% in 2017-2018; P < .001) in adjusted analyses. Regardless of ADRD status, beneficiaries had similar rates of switching to a new Medicare Advantage contract. Differences in contract exit rates were associated with higher rates of disenrollment from Medicare Advantage to traditional Medicare among beneficiaries with ADRD vs those without ADRD (16.3% [95% CI, 16.2%-16.3%] vs 15.1% [95% CI, 15.1%-15.1%]). Beneficiaries with ADRD and dual eligibility for Medicaid enrollment had higher rates of contract exit than those without dual eligibility (19.7% [95% CI, 19.6%-19.7%] vs 14.9% [95% CI, 14.8%-14.9%]), and these differences were even greater than those among beneficiaries without ADRD and with and without dual-eligibility status, respectively (18.3% [95% CI, 18.2%-18.3%] vs 13.8% [95% CI, 13.7%-13.8%]). In this cross-sectional study of the Medicare population with acute and postacute care use, beneficiaries with ADRD had increasing enrollment in the Medicare Advantage program, proportional to the growth in overall enrollment, but their disenrollment from Medicare Advantage in the following year remained higher compared with beneficiaries without ADRD. The findings highlight the need to understand the factors associated with higher disenrollment rates and determine whether such rates reflect access or quality challenges for beneficiaries with ADRD.

Investigation of effect lengths and angles of the control devices below the hydraulic structure

Abstract This study investigated the effect of reducing seepage under a hydraulic structure. This article aims to find positional equations for the control devices that reduce the seepage under the hydraulic structure. Using lengths and angles of sheet-piles under the hydraulic structure where the sheet-pile was placed up- and downstream, respectively, upon the hydraulic structure with anisotropy soil hypothetically affects both uplift pressure and seepage values. The experiments were conducted in two cases: in the first case, a couple of sheet-piles were oriented to the upstream passage; while in the second case, they were oriented to the downstream. Then, the second case was compared with three sheet-piles placed upstream, downstream, and intermediate to the passage. For each experiment (at the hydraulic toe position), the major affecting parameters such as the uplift pressure, gradient exit, and outlet flow rate were found. A correlation equation to correlate the exit gradient and discharge parameters was developed.

The impact of agricultural minimum wages on worker flows in South Africa

AbstractThis paper is the first to provide estimates of how minimum wages affect worker flows and employment growth rates in an employment scarce developing country context. We investigate the effects of a large, exogenous increase in agricultural minimum wages in South Africa. We find that changes occurred primarily among non‐seasonal workers. Non‐seasonal agricultural employment growth decreased in the initial periods after the minimum wage hike. This was mainly driven by slower rates of entry. The effect on the rate of entry decreases over time. While farms also responded by shedding non‐seasonal workers at higher rates, this negative effect was limited to 1 year directly after the minimum wage hike. Employment growth recovers 4 years after the policy shock, indicating that firms adjusted relatively quickly despite the large legislated minimum wage increase. Seasonal employment growth and rates of entry and exit of seasonal workers were for the most part unaffected. Descriptive statistics, however, suggest a slight compositional change among seasonal workers: Farms replaced the worst paid seasonal workers with other low‐income workers who were slightly better paid and presumably more productive.

Agglomeration factors and the geography of growing early‐stage businesses in Chile

AbstractNew models of agglomeration cast the urban productivity premium as the outcome of agglomeration economies, a spatial sorting of skilled entrepreneurs and greater selection effects leading to less, but more productive businesses. We provide descriptive evidence of the spatial distribution of growing early‐stage businesses in Chile that concurs with the theory. We show, first, that while business entry rates increase systematically with the size of a region, the rates of growing early‐stage businesses are not related to the levels of agglomeration. Second, we show that, on the contrary, average early‐stage business productivity, the levels of human capital and business exit rates all relate positively with agglomeration. Third, we estimate regression models that verify the expected relationships between agglomeration factors and regional growing early‐stage‐business activity. The results for Chile suggest that the disadvantages of agglomeration largely offset the benefits, and therefore there is no obvious location penalty to venturing in peripheral areas. Entrepreneurship policies in less‐developed countries should not target excessively to specific industries and regions, as they might curtail an entrepreneurial potential that is ubiquitous.

Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 Using Nonautonomous Dynamical System with Simplex Algorithm-Based Optimization for Time-Varying Parameters

The S I R D V (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Death, Vaccinated) compartmental model along with time-varying parameters is used to model the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Time-varying parameters account for changes in transmission rates, people’s behaviors, safety precautions, government regulations, the rate of vaccinations, and also the probabilities of recovery and death. By using a parameter estimation based on the simplex algorithm, the system of differential equations is able to match real COVID-19 data for infections, deaths, and vaccinations in the United States of America with relatively high precision. Autoregression is used to forecast parameters in order to forecast solutions. Van den Driessche’s next-generation approach for basic reproduction number agrees well across the entire time period. Analyses on sensitivity and elasticity are performed on the reproduction number with respect to transmission, exit, and natural death rates in order to observe the changes from a small change in parameter values. Model validation through the Akaike Information Criterion ensures that the model is suitable and optimal for modeling the spread of COVID-19.

Phase transitions in the driven lattice gas (TASEP) with repulsive energies

We report on non-equilibrium phase transitions in the driven lattice gas model totally asymmetric exclusion processes caused by nearest-neighbor (NN) repulsions between particles, ɛ > 0, employing extensive Monte Carlo simulations and mean-field calculations. The diagra of phase regimes has five different regimes which are separated by distinct boundaries. We discuss the density of particles and the current which depend differently in the various regimes on the system’s entry and exit rates of particles, α and β, respectively. The steady state can be described by quasi-particles called ‘soft dimerons’, where each dimeron consists of a particle dragging an empty NN site on its left. The asymptotic state of dimerons at is equivalent to the state of hard dimers at ɛ = 0. Since the model is a uni-directional fluid, it has an internal hydrodynamic pressure which increases with increasing inter-particle repulsion ɛ. This leads to a collective effect which causes phase transitions between high and low densities of particles at certain critical points ɛ c .

Labour force transitions and changes in quality of life at age 50–55 years: evidence from a birth cohort study

Abstract In the context of an ageing population and longer working lives, the impact of increasing rates of early exit from the labour force on quality of life is a particularly current concern. However, relatively little is known about the impact on quality of life of later-life labour force transitions and various forms of early exit from the labour force, compared to remaining in employment. This paper examines lifecourse labour force trajectories and transitions in relation to change in quality of life prior to the State Pension Age. Lifecourse data on early life circumstances, labour force trajectories and labour force transitions from 3,894 women and 3,528 men in the National Child Development Study (1958 British Birth Cohort) were examined in relation to change in quality of life, measured by a short-form version of CASP, between the ages of 50 and 55. Women and men differed in the types of labour force transition associated with positive change in quality of life, with men more frequent beneficiaries. For both men and women, labour force exit due to being sick or disabled was associated with a negative change in quality of life, whereas joining the labour force was associated with a positive change in quality of life. Moving into retirement was associated with a positive change in men's quality of life, but not women's. Moving from full-time to part-time employment was associated with a positive change in women's quality of life but not men's. The findings that stand out for their policy relevance are: the threat to the quality of life of both women and men from early labour force exit due to limiting longstanding illness; and women are less likely to experience beneficial labour force exit in the later years of their working life, but are more likely to benefit from a reduction in working hours.

Tradeoff of generalization error in unsupervised learning

Abstract Finding the optimal model complexity that minimizes the generalization error (GE) is a key issue of machine learning. For the conventional supervised learning, this task typically involves the bias-variance tradeoff: lowering the bias by making the model more complex entails an increase in the variance. Meanwhile, little has been studied about whether the same tradeoff exists for unsupervised learning. In this study, we propose that unsupervised learning generally exhibits a two-component tradeoff of the GE, namely the model error (ME) and the data error (DE)—using a more complex model reduces the ME at the cost of the DE, with the DE playing a more significant role for a smaller training dataset. This is corroborated by training the restricted Boltzmann machine to generate the configurations of the two-dimensional Ising model at a given temperature and the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process with given entry and exit rates. Our results also indicate that the optimal model tends to be more complex when the data to be learned are more complex.

Стандартизация установок импульсного пожаротушения для подачи самовспенивающейся газоаэрозоленаполненной пены

Pulse fire extinguishing was actively developing. There is a wide range of impulse fire extinguishing devices on the market. However, existing standards do not cover the entire class of these products. Hence there are problems with their certification. To date, two standards are approved and in force: GOST R 53291—2009 «Fire-fighting equipment. Mobile and portable fire extinguishing devices with high-speed delivery of fire extinguishing agent. General technical requirements. Test methods», and GOST R 53286—2009 «Fire-fighting equipment. Automatic powder fire-extinguishing installations. Modules. General technical requirements. Test methods». Two more standards are under development: one of them is essentially a slightly modified version of GOST R 53291—2009 — it will be given the status of interstate; the second supplements GOST R 53286—2009 and concerns installations and modules for gas-powder fire extinguishing. Impulse fire extinguishing installations with self-foaming gas-aerosol-filled foam are not subject to the listed standards for technical requirements and test methods. This applies primarily to the requirements for the volume of vessels used to obtain foam and displace it from there, as well as for the operating time of the pulse fire extinguishing installation, measuring the rate of exit of the fire extinguishing agent, calculating this rate according to the graph of pressure change in the vessel, etc. Therefore, for these installations a separate standard is required. In this case, in general, it is required to give clear definitions of what is meant by impulse fire extinguishing and impulse fire extinguishing installations.

Job Search, Spatial Constraints, and Unemployment Duration: An Empirical Analysis of the Cameroonian Case

The individual transition from unemployment to employment is conditioned by various elements. If some of them concern directly the individual characteristics of workers, while others implicate indeed their environment when searching for a job. The residential location, housing status, and high travel distances to each labor market area are factors that can influence the exit rate of unemployment. This paper aims to integrate, in a job search model with endogenous intensity, the spatial horizon of prospecting. This horizon is introduced through the prospecting distance, which influences both the arrival rate of offers and the search costs. The equilibrium properties of the model lead to an indeterminate effect of the prospecting distance on the unemployment duration. The micro econometric estimation of the structural model allows us to deal with this ambiguity. The method adopted takes into account not only the selection rule on access to employment but also the endogeneity of the choice of spatial mobility. Results highlight that the exit from unemployment is shorter as the prospecting distance increases, but the increase in this prospecting distance does not lead to a decrease in the reserve wage.

Labor market flows: Evidence for Chile using microdata from administrative tax records

We compute and characterize several labor flow measures using administrative tax records for all formal Chilean firms and employees. Our results show that labor mobility in Chile is significant by international standards, with the reallocation rate averaging 37% over the last decade, the highest value among the 25 OECD countries with comparable data. The magnitude of labor reallocation is highly heterogeneous among firms and industries, highest in Agriculture and Construction. Job reallocation is also high for smaller companies, primarily due to high firm creation and destruction rates, and for firms that pay lower wages. Finally, there is a significant procyclical behavior of workers’ entry rate and, in smaller magnitude, a countercyclical reaction of the exit rate, consistent with international evidence that shows job creation as the main adjustment mechanism over the business cycle.

Public debt and welfare in a quantitative Schumpeterian growth model with incomplete markets

This paper quantifies the welfare effects of counterfactual public debt policies using an endogenous growth model with incomplete markets. The economy features public debt, Schumpeterian growth, infinitely-lived agents, uninsurable income risk, and discount factor heterogeneity. Two versions of the model are specified, one with households holding equity in the group of innovating firms. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy to match the degree of wealth inequality, the share of R&D expenditure in GDP, the firms’ exit rate, the average growth rate, and other standard long-run targets. When comparing balanced growth paths, I find large welfare gains in equilibria characterized by governments accumulating public wealth. The result is robust to the mechanism used to generate a highly concentrated wealth (i.e., preference heterogeneity or “superstar” income shocks). Welfare effects decompositions show that level effects and growth effects reinforce each other. The responses of both the intermediate goods and their market conditions are key in explaining the large level effects. The version of the model without equity is computationally easier to solve, allowing to consider transitional dynamics. Taking into account the dynamic adjustment to the new long-run equilibrium, I show that the transitional welfare costs are not large enough to change the sign of the welfare effects stemming from a change in public debt. I find that eliminating public debt would lead to a 0.8% increase in welfare, while moving to a debt/GDP ratio of 100% would entail a welfare loss of 0.5%. A decomposition analysis shows that growth accounts for approximately 50% of the overall welfare effects.

Labor Market Dynamics and Development

Abstract We provide new evidence on how labor market dynamics vary with development. We build a new data set consisting of harmonized microdata from rotating panel labor force surveys covering 80 million people from 49 countries. Labor market flows, such as the job-finding or employment exit rate, are higher in developing economies. These higher flows largely reflect a slippery job ladder: workers transition frequently to and from marginal employment without climbing to or persisting in better-paying jobs. Subsistence self-employment and different patterns of selection for wage workers each play a role in our findings and are useful avenues for future theories of labor market frictions.