Exit Polls Research Articles

When Do Renters Behave Like Homeowners? High Rent, Price Anxiety, and NIMBYism

How does spatial scale affect support for public policy? Does supporting housing citywide but “Not In My Back Yard” (NIMBY) help explain why housing has become increasingly difficult to build in once-affordable cities? I use two original surveys to measure how support for new housing varies between the city scale and neighborhood scale. Together, an exit poll of 1,660 voters during the 2015 San Francisco election and a national survey of over 3,000 respondents provide the first experimental measurements of NIMBYism. While homeowners are sensitive to housing’s proximity, renters typically do not express NIMBYism. However, in high-rent cities, renters demonstrate NIMBYism on par with homeowners, despite continuing to support large increases in the housing supply citywide. These scale-dependent preferences not only help explain the deepening affordability crisis, but show how institutions can undersupply even widely supported public goods. When preferences are scale dependent, the scale of decision-making matters.

‘Jez, We Can!’ Labour’s Campaign: Defeat with a Taste of Victory

When on the BBC election-night programme David Dimbleby announced that the exit poll predicted a hung parliament, the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn just smiled. He had reasons to be cautious. For months, the chatter in Westminster was about Labour’s fatal decline. A hung parliament did not feature in this scenario. But voters, a more imaginative bunch than pollsters and pundits, had a surprise in store. Instead of facing a crushing defeat Labour lost the election but by a much smaller margin than anticipated. The party increased its share of the vote from 2015 by almost 10% to 40%, its highest since 2005 and saw 262 MPs elected (30 more than in the previous election). It was the first time since 1997 that Labour increased its representation in the House of Commons. Considering the disastrous results obtained at the 2015 general election and at the local elections of May 2017, winning those extra 30 seats was a considerable achievement. Conservative safe seats like Kensington, Battersea, Canterbury, Portsmouth South and Stroud were not even on the list of the party’s top target seats, and yet Labour won them. Similarly, there were signs of a Labour recovery in Scotland. In 2015, the party lost all but one of its 41 seats, but two years later it retained Edinburgh South and won back East Lothian, Midlothian, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Rutherglen and Hamilton West.

Is Sexism for White People? Gender Stereotypes, Race, and the 2016 Presidential Election

On November 8, 2016 Donald Trump, a man with no office-holding experience, won the Electoral College, defeating the first woman to receive the presidential nomination from a major party. This paper offers the first observational test of how sexism affects presidential vote choice in the general election, adding to the rich literature on gender and candidate success for lower-level offices. We argue that the 2016 election implicated gender through Hillary Clinton’s candidacy and Donald Trump’s sexist rhetoric, and activated gender attitudes such that sexism is associated with vote choice. Using an Election Day exit poll survey of over 1300 voters conducted at 12 precincts in a mid-size city and a national survey of over 10,000 White and Black Americans, we find that a politically defined measure of sexism—the belief that men are better suited emotionally for politics than women—predicts support for Trump both in terms of vote choice and favorability. We find the effect is strongest and most consistent among White voters. However, a domestically defined measure of sexism—whether men should be in control of their wives—offers little explanatory power over the vote. In total, our results demonstrate the importance of gender in the 2016 election, beyond mere demographic differences in vote choice: beliefs about gender and fitness for office shape both White men and women’s preferences.

The Anger Games: Who Voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 Election, and Why?

Recently released data from the 2016 American National Election Study allow us to offer a multifaceted profile of white voters who voted for Donald J. Trump in the 2016 presidential election. We find that Trump’s supporters voted for him mainly because they share his prejudices, not because they’re financially stressed. It’s true, as exit polls showed, that voters without four-year college degrees were likelier than average to support Trump. But millions of these voters—who are often stereotyped as “the white working class”—opposed Trump because they oppose his prejudices. These prejudices, meanwhile, have a definite structure, which we argue should be called authoritarian: negatively, they target minorities and women; and positively, they favor domineering and intolerant leaders who are uninhibited about their biases. Multivariate logistic regression shows that, once we take these biases into account, demographic factors (age, education, etc.) lose their explanatory power. The electorate, in short, is deeply divided. Nearly 75% of Trump supporters count themselves among his enthusiastic supporters, and even “mild” Trump voters are much closer in their attitudes to Trump’s enthusiasts than they are to non-Trump voters. Polarization is profound, and may be growing.

Affect versus cognition: Wishful thinking on election day: An analysis using exit poll data from Belgium

Citizens tend to overestimate the electoral success of their preferred party. We investigate the extent to which Belgian voters overestimate the result of the party that they vote for and the factors that explain which voters do so more than others. Our focus is on the impact of educational attainment and partisan attachment on the overestimation of one’s party’s result. Previous research in this field has relied on data gathered in the months before the elections, which introduces a substantial amount of uncertainty and variation over time into the measurements of citizens’ vote share estimations. As an alternative, we investigate voters’ estimations of their party’s electoral success by means of data gathered in an exit poll survey. Our results show partisan attachments to have a strong impact on overestimations, which suggests that a wishful thinking mechanism is in play. Furthermore, we find that the extent to which partisan attachments increase citizens’ overestimations depends on a voter’s level of education.

출구조사에서 무응답 처리 방법에 대한 연구: 20대 국회의원선거 출구조사를 중심으로

출구조사에서 무응답 처리 방법에 대한 연구: 20대 국회의원선거 출구조사를 중심으로

2016년 국회의원선거 출구조사 오차 분석

2016년 국회의원선거 출구조사 오차 분석

The German Elections in the Polls

Excellent Exit Polls – very revealing pre‐election polls

Picking Winners: How Political Organizations Influence Local Elections

Endorsements have become a part of most election cycles. They come from a variety of sources (civic organizations, elected officials, newspapers, etc.) and are intended to signal voters that one candidate is preferential to another. Yet, there is still a lot that we do not know about endorsements. In this article, we provide insight into the process of how organizations and newspapers endorse candidates, provide evidence that demonstrates candidates believe these endorsements are important, and test the claim that voters are aware of these endorsements even when controlling for factors such as partisanship, ideology, and education. We also test the claim that issue positions explain vote choice better than endorsements. We rely on interview data and exit poll data to test our claims. Using data from an at-large municipal election, in which voters selected up to three candidates, we find that awareness of endorsements explains vote choice better than issues.

Феномен евроскептицизма в контексте электоральных процессов современной Европы

The article is dedicated to the complex consideration of the sociological and demographic portrait of the modern euroscepticism. The author claims that it cannot be explicitly stated that eurosceptics can only form diversified groups, united by the temporal rather than long-term interests. In this context, it is worth mentioning that the very fact of the euroscepticism’s existence as a social and political phenomenon was an unclear topic among the academic society for at least last 15 years. For now it’s clear that in order to understand the logic of the last political events we need to analyze comprehensively the social structure of the phenomenon. In order to evaluate the core trends of euroscepticism the author also refers to the national statistics data on the public preferences and exit polls from different elections in the EU countries. The above-mentioned approach enabled the author to make the following conclusions. Firstly, the electoral support of eurosceptic parties strongly correlates with the economic position of a voting social group. Secondly, euroscepticism is a popular phenomenon among young men and this fact, supposedly, can also be understood in connection with the previous statement. Thirdly, there is a correlation between euroscepticism and the deep traditions of nationalismб which still matter for a part of the EU middle class. The analysis of the eurosceptic parties’ programs showed that there is a huge political division between those parties. For instance, some of them tend to criticize the EU in a comparatively “soft” way, whereas others take a more radical position. At the same time, in some leading EU member states eurosceptics became a significant national force, what puts the question of euroscepticism in the actual agenda of the EU.

'Family Values Don't Stop at the Rio Grande..:' Can the Republican Party Convert Hispanic Voters?

As the Hispanic community becomes increasingly important in American politics there are competing views about whether they can be converted to the Republican Party. One perspective argues that Hispanics’ religion and traditional social values makes them natural constituents of the Republican Party. Alternatively, Hispanics are primarily concerned about issues promoting their well-being and topics such as moral values or religion are private. We use a novel approach to test whether traditional social values might attract Hispanic voters to the Republican Party. Using exit poll results for ballot propositions on moral issues from Arizona, Colorado, and Florida we find weak evidence that traditional values will convert Hispanics to the Republican Party. Instead, our results indicate that traditional social values issues reinforce the polarization between the two parties.

Election outcomes under different ways to announce preferences: an analysis of the 2015 parliament election in the Austrian federal state of Styria

We use preference data from the 2015 parliament election in the Austrian federal state of Styria to analyze different voting rules. An exit poll right after the election collected data on ordinal and cardinal preferences from approximately 1000 actual voters. Our analysis is threefold. First, we determine the hypothetical social outcomes under different voting rules; second, we investigate the stability of the outcomes under those rules. Finally, we provide a categorization of different types of parties and analyze the impact of certain voting rules (Plurality Rule, Plurality Run Off, Hare System, Condorcet Method, Approval Voting, Borda Rule, Evaluative Voting, and Majority Judgment) on the performances of parties in those scenarios.

Willingness to pay for antiretroviral drugs among HIV and AIDS clients in south-east Nigeria.

BackgroundThe current trend of withdrawal of donor support for HIV/AIDS treatment in Nigeria may require that the cost of antiretroviral drugs be borne in part by infected people and their families.ObjectiveThis study was conducted to determine the economic value for free antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) expressed by clients receiving treatment for HIV/AIDS in a tertiary hospital.Study methodThe contingent valuation method was used to elicit the values attached to free ARVs from people living with HIV/AIDS that were receiving care in a public tertiary hospital in south‐east Nigeria. Exit poll using a pre‐tested questionnaire was undertaken with adult clients on treatment. The bidding game technique was used to elicit their willingness to pay (WTP) for ARVs for themselves and members of their households. Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis was used to test the construct validity of elicited WTP amounts.ResultsAbout a third of the respondents were willing to pay for a monthly supply of ARVs for themselves and household members. The mean WTP for monthly supply of ARVs for self was US$15.32 and for household member was US$15.26 (1US$=₦160). OLS regression analysis showed that employment status and higher socio‐economic status were positively associated with higher WTP. OLS showed that age and transport cost per clinic visit were negatively related to WTP. Knowing the risks of not adhering to treatment protocol was positively related to WTP.ConclusionThe respondents positively valued the free ARVs. This calls for greater financial support for the sustainable provision of the treatment service. However, holistic financing mechanisms should be explored to ensure sustained funding in the event of complete withdrawal of donor support.

Surprise, Surprise! (again) The 2017 British General Election Exit Poll

Abstract While most pollsters and pundits expected the Conservatives to win an increased majority in Britain's June election, the election day exit poll forecast something different. John Curtice, Stephen Fisher, Jouni Kuha and Jonathan Mellon explain how the poll works, and why it made the right call

Jeremy Corbyn confounds his critics: explaining the Labour party’s remarkable resurgence in the 2017 election

The result of the 2017 general election was widely expected to be a foregone conclusion, namely a comfortable, probably landslide, re-election for Theresa May’s Conservative Party, and an electoral disaster for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party which would irrevocably prove the futility of campaigning on a radical Left-wing programme in Britain: it would be like 1983 all over again. Yet when the Exit Poll was announced at 22.00 on 8 June 2017, it was apparent that the election had produced one of the biggest shocks in British electoral history. The Conservatives had actually lost their previous narrow parliamentary majority, while the Labour Party had made significant and wholly unexpected advances. Most of the opinion polls had entirely failed to predict this outcome. This article examines Labour’s performance in one of the most astonishing British general elections ever, and explains how the Party confounded expectations, and stunned Corbyn’s many vociferous critics in the process. In so doing, it will examine the critical importance of the election campaign itself, the extent to which Labour voters prioritised different issues to their Conservative counterparts, the scale of Labour’s support not only among younger voters, but more surprisingly among professions in the AB socioeconomic category, and the way in which the Labour leader’s television and social media appearances seemed to counteract some of the negative press coverage he received.

Post-Release Advertising, Movie Quality, and Word-of-Mouth

Marketing is a crucial determinant of product success, particularly in the film industry where marketing budgets are comparable to production budgets. A rich theoretical literature predicts a positive relationship between advertising and product quality (e.g. Nelson, 1974). I examine this relationship by exploiting changes in the product quality information available to the distributors of 1,156 movies released between 1995 and 2003. Variation in weekly television advertising expenditures indicate that marketing expenditures react sharply to new information about film quality that is revealed during a film's opening weekend, including the results of exit polling, which studios use to infer word-of-mouth.

The Newest Southerners: Generational Differences in Electoral Behavior in the Contemporary South

Young voters contributed disproportionately to Barack Obama’s presidential victory in 2012. In fact, if the electorate had been limited to those over 30 years old, Mitt Romney might be in the White House today. Obama captured 60 percent of the vote of those under 30, compared to 49 percent of those over 30, according to the national exit polls (Schier and Box- Steffensmeier 2013, 86). A similar pattern characterized the 2008 presidential election: Obama won 66 percent of the vote among those aged 29 or less, but under one-half of voters older than 45 (Pomper 2010, 53). The tendency for younger voters to be disproportionately Democratic emerged in the 2004 presidential election. Prior to that, Democratic presidential candidates did not consistently do better among younger voters. In 2000, for example, Al Gore did as well among older voters as he did among younger voters, and in 1992, Bill Clinton did his best among older voters, as did Walter Mondale in 1984 and Michael Dukakis in 1988 (Pomper 2001, 138; Pomper 1989, 133).

Combining Aggregate Data and Exit Polls for the Estimation of Voter Transitions

Our objective is the estimation of voter transitions between two consecutive parliamentary elections. Usually, such analyses have been based either on individual survey data or on aggregated data. To move beyond these methods and their respective problems, we propose the application of so-called hybrid models, which combine aggregate and individual data. We use a Bayesian approach and extend a multinomial-Dirichlet model proposed in the ecological inference literature. Our new hybrid model has been implemented in the R-package eiwild (= Ecological Inference with individual-level data). Based on extensive simulations, we are able to show that our new estimator exhibits a very good estimation performance in many realistic scenarios. Application case is the voter transition between the Bavarian Regional election and the German federal elections 2013 in the Metropolitan City of Munich. Our approach is also applicable to other areas of electoral research, market research, and epidemiology.

Medicaid Expansion and ACA Repeal: Evidence From Ohio.

To examine the health insurance coverage options for Medicaid expansion enrollees if the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is repealed, using evidence from Ohio, where more than half a million adults have enrolled in the state's Medicaid program through the ACA expansion. The Ohio Medicaid Assessment Survey interviewed 42 000 households in 2015. We report data from a unique battery of questions designed to identify insurance coverage immediately prior to Medicaid enrollment. Ninety-five percent of new Medicaid enrollees in Ohio did not have a private health insurance option immediately before enrollment. These new enrollees are predominantly older, low-income Whites with a high school education or less. Only 5% of new Medicaid enrollees were eligible for an employer-sponsored insurance plan to which they could potentially return in the case of repeal of the ACA. The vast majority of Medicaid expansion enrollees would have no plausible pathway to obtaining private-sector insurance if the ACA were repealed. Demographic similarities between the expansion population and 2016 exit polls suggest that coverage losses would fall disproportionately on members of the winning Republican coalition.

AWARENESS AND COMPLIANCE OF PREGNANT WOMEN IN THE FORMATION OF DENTAL HEALTH

Given the urgency of demographic problems and the need to improve the quality of medical care in the national health system conducted a comprehensive study of the socio-psychological motivation of pregnant women to the formation of dental health. The empirical base consisted of the data of a sociological and clinical studies conducted on a model of a group of women in 1 trimester of pregnancy (N = 150, mean age = 24,2 ± 1,4 years), where women with a pathological course of pregnancy iron deficiency anemia (IDA), and women with physiological course of pregnancy, presented in equal ratio. The results of the exit poll show that educational work among various age and social groups of pregnant has a sufficient efficiency (68 %), the majority of respondents (73 %) have significant compliance, realize the importance and necessity of dental care and treatment during pregnancy giving preference to a competent, qualified professional (56-63 %), coformity degree of trust and willingness to cooperate. However, a significant part of the study group (36 %) do not evaluate enough and (or) to underestimate the importance of the role of a dentist in the formation of dental health of baby and pregnant women, which is especially important in complicated pregnancy on the background of somatic pathology.