Exit Polls Research Articles

Education in lifestyle medicine for future physicians – a strategy to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease

ABSTRACT There is a compelling need to improve all physicians’ knowledge on lifestyle medicine (LM). This training needs to start early during medical education. This case report describes the feasibility and effects of integrating LM into an existing core curriculum of a Swedish undergraduate medical programme. A curriculum development project was organized using a six-step model: general needs assessment, targeted needs assessment, goals and objectives, educational strategies, implementation, and evaluation. New learning objectives regarding health, prevention and lifestyle medicine were formulated throughout the five-and-a-half-year programme. Learning activities and examinations were integrated in all courses with a structured progression and with focus on preventive activities in the workplace learning. The project was evaluated using student surveys of curricular quality, teacher survey of curricular content and integration in 2020, and an external review of adherence to the national qualitative target on preventive medicine. The project was executed during 2017–2018. Course evaluations and exit poll at graduation showed an overall high-quality student rating of education in prevention and in lifestyle counselling: on average, a score of 4.1/5 and 4.1/6, respectively. The teacher survey showed that over 70% of courses had a lasting increase in LM curricular content and that this content was to a large extent integrated into the existing course material. The external review concluded that the topic was well covered and integrated into the curriculum. LM could be successfully integrated into an existing medical programme curriculum with positive effects on student learning.

Cost misperception and voting for public goods

AbstractPublic good provision is often determined through referendums by voters, who weigh benefits against costs. However, perceptions of benefits and costs may be incorrect, which could in turn lead to voter error and misallocation of public goods. Using real‐world referendums, we evaluate voter perceptions of the private costs of providing public goods by conducting three exit polls of New England voters and an online survey of California voters. By comparing cost perceptions to actual tax incidence, we find pervasive evidence that voters misperceive costs. Fewer than 20% of voters in our samples reported perceived costs within 25% of estimated actual costs. These findings are unsurprising given the ubiquity of opaque language explaining the financial consequences of public good referendums. In addition, our analysis suggests that actual costs have no statistical bearing on voter choice, but at least in the New England sample, voter approval is affected by perceived costs. Thus, a substantial proportion of voters are making decisions based in part on inaccurate costs, which in some cases lead to people voting against their preferences and potential misallocation of public funds. Further, researchers who match voter approval with estimated actual cost are unlikely to obtain accurate cost responsiveness or valuation estimates.

The Role of Police Perception in Shaping Public Meeting Attendance and Implications for Planners

This is the first study to assess how resident perception of the police is associated with public meeting attendance. Using 689 exit poll surveys in Oklahoma City, we conducted regression models to understand factors associated with meeting attendance. Our findings reveal that police perception is related to meeting attendance, especially for younger, college-educated residents who live in non-white precincts. The study also helps to differentiate resident perceptions of police compared to other public services. The findings are important given that typical public meeting attendees are older and white and the role of police powers in urban planning processes.

Getting the Race Wrong: A Case Study of Sampling Bias and Black Voters in Online, Opt-In Polls

Abstract Researchers are increasingly reliant on online, opt-in surveys. But prior benchmarking exercises employ national samples, making it unclear whether such surveys can effectively represent Black respondents and other minorities nationwide. This paper presents the results of uncompensated online and in-person surveys administered chiefly in one racially diverse American city—Philadelphia—during its 2023 mayoral primary. The participation rate for online surveys promoted via Facebook and Instagram was .4%, with White residents and those with college degrees more likely to respond. Such biases help explain why neither our surveys nor public polls correctly identified the Democratic primary’s winner, an establishment-backed Black Democrat. Even weighted, geographically stratified online surveys typically underestimate the winner’s support, although an in-person exit poll does not. We identify some similar patterns in Chicago. These results indicate important gaps in the populations represented in contemporary opt-in surveys and suggest that alternative survey modes help reduce them.

Machine learning-based prediction models for electoral outcomes in India: a comparative analysis of exit polls from 2014–2021

Machine learning-based prediction models for electoral outcomes in India: a comparative analysis of exit polls from 2014–2021

AI Revolution in Exit Polls: Enhancing Accuracy, Efficiency, and Inclusivity

Exit polls have long been integral to understanding electoral dynamics, offering insights into voter behavior and preferences. Traditional exit poll methodologies, involving manual data collection and in-person interviews, face significant challenges in accuracy, sample size, and inclusivity. This paper explores the transformative impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the exit polling process. By leveraging neural networks for enhanced sampling, employing automated Voice-AI for data collection, and utilizing Natural Language Processing (NLP) for real-time data analysis, AI significantly improves the efficiency, accuracy, and inclusivity of exit polls. The paper discusses the technical aspects of implementing AI-driven exit polls, including the architecture of neural networks, real-time data processing systems, and machine learning models for prediction. Additionally, it addresses the advantages of AI, such as cost-effectiveness and reduced human biases, while acknowledging challenges like algorithmic bias, privacy concerns, and the complexities of accurately interpreting voter behavior. As AI continues to evolve, it promises to further enhance the reliability and comprehensiveness of exit polls, providing valuable tools for understanding public opinion in democratic processes

Does Religious Identity Moderate Economic Voting? Evidence from Indonesia

Scholars have long suggested that economic voting is contingent on political factors, but how social identity contributes to such contingent economic voting has been overlooked. While the literature suggests the presence of direct function of religion on voting decisions, we are not sure about religion’s other functions. By treating religion as a social identity, this article seeks to uncover a moderating function of religion on economic voting. It draws on an embedded exit poll survey in Indonesian gubernatorial and mayoral elections in 2020, covering 9,400 respondents. This paper finds that the self-identification of religious identity moderates economic perception in the voting decision. Although the findings show strong evidence of economic voting, they challenge previous studies arguing that religion is a weak predictor in a new democracy with a Muslim-majority population. This paper contributes to the literature on economic voting and the role of religion in the voting decision.

India's General Election: Verdict 2024-A Reflection of Public Political Decisions

2024 has been a year of elections around the world, including the developed nations—the USA, the UK, the European Union and the Russian Federation alongside countries like India, Mexico, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran (the Islamic Republic of), South Africa, Republic of Korea (South Korea), Algeria, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Ghana, Mozambique, Madagascar, Venezuela, (the Bolivarian Republic of), Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea), Taiwan, Syrian Arab Republic, Mali, Sri Lanka, Romania, Chad, Senegal, Cambodia, Rwanda, Tunisia, Belgium, Dominic Republic, Jordan, South Sudan, Czechia (Czech Republic), Azerbaijan, Portugal, Belarus, Togo, Austria, El Salvador, Slovakia, Finland, Mauritania, Panama, Croatia, Georgia, Mongolia, Uruguay, Republic of Moldova, Lithuania Botswana, Namibia, Guinea Bissau and North Macedonia. This editorial is devoted to the verdict of India’s General Election 2024. The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have trickled in by defying most of the expectations of the exit polls. The graph of the results projected a different picture, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) grabbing 293 seats in the 543-member Parliament. At the same time, the coalition of opposition parties, collectively known as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), accomplished 234, which is 38 less than the required majority. As a twist in the election results, the regional parties made significant gains in many states. Congress bagged a strong revival, which was hugely attributed to the Bharat Jodo Yatra and Nyay Yatra under the architect of Mr Rahul Gandhi. Nevertheless, with its allies, BJP-led NDA is on board as Modi 3.0 leads the largest democracy.

Linguistic threat: Vote choice, linguistic cues and support for official bilingualism in Quebec

AbstractIn Canada, federal institutions must provide governmental services to all citizens in the country's two official languages: French and English. This paper uses a survey experiment to test exposure to written English as a determinant of support for official bilingualism in the French‐speaking province of Quebec. The data emanate from an exit poll conducted in two Quebec electoral districts during the 2019 Canadian federal elections (n = 430). Results suggest the existence of heterogeneous experimental effects depending on vote choice. Indeed, Bloc Québécois voters—the federal party most strongly supportive of linguistic rights—are disproportionately supportive of institutional bilingualism when randomly exposed to written English on the survey questionnaire. These results are robust to the inclusion of socio‐demographic and attitudinal control variables, including support for Quebec independence. Our paper bolsters causal claims about the contextual determinants of in‐group favouritism and cultural threat in divided societies.

Exit Polls and Voter Turnout in the 2017 French Elections

Lors des élections françaises, les médias belges et suisses interfèrent régulièrement en publiant des sondages et des prédictions avant la fermeture des bureaux de vote. Nous utilisons la précocité et le degré de confiance inhabituels des sondages au second tour de l’élection présidentielle de 2017 pour étudier leurs effets sur la participation électorale. Notre analyse compare les taux de participation à différents horaires, aux premier et second tours, et par rapport aux élections de 2012 et 2022. Les résultats montrent une baisse significative de la participation après la publication des sondages à la sortie des urnes. L’effet s’élève à 1,1 point de pourcentage dans l’analyse en triples differences avec l’élection de 2022 et il est plus fort dans les départements limitrophes de la Belgique. Nous constatons également un léger effet underdog pouvant réduire la marge de victoire jusqu’à 1 point de pourcentage .

The impact of voter confusion in ranked choice voting

AbstractObjectivesElection observers have expressed concerns about voter “confusion” under ranked choice voting (RCV) since the 1890s. What is the meaning of “confusing,” and how does it affect behavior? We argue (with much of the literature) that ranking candidates for public office is a cognitively complex task because of a lack of information.MethodsWe explore some observable implications of this perspective using exit poll data from the first RCV election in Santa Fe, New Mexico, in 2018.ResultsSixteen percent of voters reported having felt very (6 percent) or somewhat (10 percent) confused, and Hispanic voters were more likely to be confused than white voters. Confused voters report ranking fewer candidates, have lower confidence in ballot‐counting accuracy, and are less supportive of RCV than nonconfused voters.ConclusionsThese results raise questions about RCV's equity, participation costs for voters, ease of use, and longevity.

THE LEFT TURN OF THE ITALIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY (PD): PRIMARY ELECTIONS AND POLICY PREFERENCES

On February 26, 2023, for the first time in the history of the Democratic Party, the leading Italian progressive party, a woman, Elly Schlein, was elected leader through open primaries that contradicted the outcome of consultations among the membership. Observing the outcome of an exit poll conducted by the Standing Group Candidate and Leader Selection of the Italian Political Science Society focusing on the policy priorities of the electorate, it clearly emerges that the inclusive rules of intra-party democracy, under certain conditions, can impact the identity of the party, leading in this case to a sharp turn to the left. More specifically, the positions of the electorates of the two candidates, Elly Schlein and Stefano Bonaccini, diverge significantly on issues that appear to be crucial for the political positioning of the party.

Party Affiliation in the Southern Electorate

This article chronicles and analyzes the changing state of party affiliation in the American South from the 1990s to the present. Party identification (PID) is examined with data from three survey sources: the American National Election Study (ANES), Cooperative Election Study (CES), and Exit Polls (national and state-level). Emphasis is placed on the changing PID patterns of white, Black, and Hispanic voters South-wide and in individual states. The findings strongly suggest that the current position of Republican electoral dominance will persist for some time to come, though there are multiple reasons why, in certain parts of the South, Democratic affiliation will likely increase.

Exploring Self-medication Behavior among Clients of Pharmacies in Kerman Province of Iran

Background: Self-medication is considered as one of the biggest social, health, and economic problems in different societies, including Iran. Statistics show that medicine intake in Iran is not consistent with the population and the epidemiological status. So, it can be argued that the high rate of medicine use in Iran is partly attributable to self-medication. Objective: We aimed to explore and analyze self-medication behavior among clients of pharmacies in Kerman province of Iran. Methods: This is a qualitative study in which 32 participants were interviewed using the exit poll survey approach. Interviews were conducted with people who purchased medicines without doctors’ prescriptions. Data were analyzed using conventional content analysis. Results: Three main categories of patient-related factors, physician-related factors and pharmacy-related factors were explored. These categories also had several subcategories, including easy access to medication and lack of trust in physicians. Among these categories, the most important cause of self-medication was related to the category of patient-related factors and its subcategory of easy access to medication. Conclusion: Considering the multidimensional nature of self-medication in Iran, which is influenced by a set of economic and cultural factors, as well as weakness in enforcing laws and regulations, overcoming this problem requires short-term and long-term inter-sectoral coordination, which should be carefully considered by health policymakers.

Neuromarketing in predicting voting behavior: A case of National elections in India

AbstractPolitical choice has huge importance, either expressed in the balloting place or in the exit poll, in bringing a political party to power and thus impacting the economy and society's welfare. Research in leadership and decision‐making suggests that the physical characteristics and traits of an individual influence the consumer's trustworthiness. Despite being a less explored research area, studying the impact of specific verbal and non‐verbal cues of a political leader through a technological lens, such as eye‐tracking has been sparsely talked about. Three sets of experiments were conducted to study voters' visual attention and reactions to gage their willingness to vote. First, an eye‐tracking tool was used to record the visual attention and regions of interest (ROI) of voters. Subsequently, a short survey was used to analyze the “willingness to vote”, followed by a pilot study on their attention to non‐verbal cues from the candidate. Also, a sentiment analysis of the voters was gathered from social media platforms. The present study analyzed the non‐verbal aspects of a political leader with regard to voting intention and found that even a few of the non‐verbal cues have an influence on the willingness to vote for a candidate. The findings contribute to the literature of neuro‐politics and decision‐making by analyzing voters' experiences of two political leaders, Narendra Modi (NaMo) and Rahul Gandhi (RaGa) based on non‐verbal cues. Political parties and candidates should focus on non‐verbal cues to increase their chances of winning elections. In addition, practitioners from the industry should incorporate appropriate non‐verbal cues while designing ad campaigns, personal branding, PR campaigns, and CEO addresses.

Rethinking Religion and Political Participation: The Case of Voting Among Religiously Unaffiliated Americans

Abstract Is civic disengagement correlated across institutions? One case of this question is a long-observed “secular voting gap” where religiously unaffiliated Americans are less likely to vote than their affiliated counterparts. This work often uses self-reports or exit polls that cannot measure variation within the unaffiliated. Using an improved measure of validated voter turnout in four presidential election years (2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020), I find estimates of the secular voting gap are attenuated by demographic controls. More importantly, the mechanism that explains this finding is that more frequent church attendance associates with a lower probability of turnout among respondents who are unaffiliated, and results vary by voting method. These results support a theory of civic disengagement as a domain-specific process and demonstrate the substantive value of revisiting classic findings about religion and political behavior amid social change.

New or “normal” election? Understanding ranking activity in New York City's first ranked choice voting election

AbstractObjectiveRanked choice voting [RCV] is currently seeing a spike in interest and is expanding in practice throughout the United States. However, the impacts and effects of RCV in the United States are not well understood and neither are the driving forces behind voters. engagement with it. This article explores what drives a voter's willingness to engage with ranking and to what extent.MethodsWe use New York City exit poll data to analyze what increased the likelihood of voters to both participate in any ranking activity whatsoever as well as what drove voters to rank several candidates. Using both logistic and ordinal logistic regression we analyze how a voter's engagement with ranking is impacted by their socioeconomic background, their understanding of RCV, and campaign‐centered variables.ResultsOur results show that wealthier, better educated, white voters who perceived a more positive campaign environment were more likely to engage in ranking. Gender, education, income, campaign tone, and being asked to rank a candidate as second or third are shown to be predictors of a voter's propensity to rank several candidates.ConclusionVoters engage with RCV when they are provided with information on how RCV works and the benefits that come with it. Voters who perceive a more positive campaign environment and are explicitly asked by candidates to include them in their rankings are more likely to maximize their ranking activity.Practitioner Points Ranked choice voting was successfully rolled out in NYC, but more voter education efforts are needed among minority voters. Cultivating a more positive campaign environment can increase participation with ranking activity. Candidates who ask voters to include them in their rankings, even if not the voter's first choice, are likely to be included in that voter's rankings.

The Economic Freedom Fighters of South Africa:What do they Stand for, and who Votes for them?

The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) have emerged as a significant force in South African politics during the past eight years. Still, only a few scholarly studies have been published analysing its ideology, strategy, and tactics, who is voting for the party, and why. The authors argue that the EFF had emerged as a challenger to the African National Congress (ANC) by positioning itself to the left of the ruling party with a set of ideas and policy proposals that emerged from the ANC Youth League when current EFF leader Julius Malema led it. Survey and exit polling data analysed by the authors indicate that the EFF is gaining traction election by election with younger black voters in the townships on issues of land and jobs and, in the process, threatens the single-party dominance of the ANC in future South African elections. However, despite a good start, the party appears to have lost some momentum after the fall of former President Jacob Zuma and made some tactical mistakes.

School Shootings, Protests, and the Gun Culture in the United States

Abstract Scholars document that attitudes toward guns and gun policy reflect deeply entrenched cultures that overlap with ideological affiliations and party politics. Does exposure to dramatic events such as school shootings and protests regarding gun control affect these patterns? I explore two aspects of the gun culture: attitudes favoring (or rejecting) stricter gun policies and the number of memberships in a key organization supporting the expansion of gun rights, the National Rifle Association (NRA). I first argue that school shootings are significant triggering events that become associated with attitudes favoring gun restrictions. A second argument holds that while triggering events such as school shootings reinvigorate the growth of a gun-rights organization, school shootings that are also accompanied by gun-control protests will decrease growth in that organization. To examine these ideas, I combine information from national exit poll data on respondents’ attitudes toward gun policy with state-level information on the counts of recent school shootings, gun-policy protests, existing laws restricting gun use, and membership in the NRA. To minimize problems associated with observational data, the analysis of public opinion applies Coarsened Exact Matching techniques followed by analysis using mixed-level logit. The second analysis uses data on gun control protests, school shootings, and NRA memberships in states over time. Results show that conservatives (but not liberals) exposed to more school shootings favor more restrictive gun policies. The second, longitudinal analysis found that there is a significant interaction effect between increases in school shootings and gun control protests that diminishes NRA memberships significantly.

Ward Health System in Nigeria: An Assessment of the Awareness and Role of Community Members

Ward Health System is an implementation strategy of Primary Health Care in Nigeria. It was introduced in 2001 and is aimed at promoting community mobilization and participation in health care, thereby enhancing an effective, efficient and sustainable health care system. This study assessed the awareness and role of community members in the Ward Health System. A semi-structured interviewer administered questionnaire was used to conduct an exit poll of 240 Primary Health Care facility clients. Approximately 12%, 13% and 29% of the respondents had ever heard of the terms Ward Health System, Village Development Committee and Ward Development committee respectively, while up to 73% have no idea of the role of any of the stakeholders. Inadequate knowledge and involvement of the community members in the Ward Health System constitutes a big challenge to the effective and efficient implementation of Primary Health Care in Nigeria. Efforts towards community education on Ward Health System should be intensified.