Exit Patterns Research Articles

Discrete Games with Flexible Information Structures: An Application to Local Grocery Markets

Game-theoretic models are frequently employed to study strategic interaction between agents. Empirical research has focused on estimating payoff functions while maintaining strong assumptions regarding the information structure of the game. I show how to relax informational assumptions to enhance the credibility of empirical analysis in discrete games. I propose the use of a flexible information structure that nests the most common assumptions used in the discrete games literature. Despite the added flexibility, the parameters of the players’ payoff functions remain point identified under standard rich support assumptions. As is common in discrete-choice games, multiple equilibria complicate identification and inference in empirical applications. I introduce an approach to equilibrium selection that avoids parametric assumptions and lets selection depend on public information that is not observed by the econometrician. I apply the method to data on the entry and exit patterns of grocery stores. The model provides useful bounds to equilibrium outcomes. In addition, the empirical analysis indicates that more restrictive informational assumptions commonly used in empirical applications models can generate qualitatively misleading counterfactual outcomes.

Sectoral patterns of firm exit in Italian provinces

There is considerable variation in the firm exit rate across the 103 provinces in Italy. This paper investigates a range of determinants of the exit rate for twelve different sectors in the Italian provinces for a period of eleven years. The analysis shows that the exit rate is positively affected by entry in the previous year (displacement) in the same sector. Previous exit has a different effect for the manufacturing industry as compared to the business services. More specifically, exit persists in manufacturing while in the business services it is rather exit in related sectors in the same province that leads to increased exit, probably due to the loss of clients or suppliers. The presence of industrial districts diminishes exit, especially in two manufacturing sectors (Food and Clothing), Commerce and Transport. Provinces with strong trademark activity appear to have lower exit rates.

Letter from the Editor-in-Chief: JIBS publication criteria and their consequences

OVERVIEW OF JIBS 41.7 This issue of JIBS contains eight articles that were all submitted to my editorial team; the topics span a wide range of issues in international business (IB) studies. Each article makes a valuable contribution to IB research when assessed on the JIBS three-fold criteria for publication: fit, quality and contribution. The issue opens with an article by Ambos, Andersson and Birkinshaw examining the consequences of initiative-taking in MNE subsidiaries in terms of bargaining power, autonomy and influence. Two articles on institutions and IB follow: Chacar, Newburry and Vissa on the role of home-country institutions in performance persistence research, and Kim, Kim and Hoskisson on the impact of institutional change on performance of business group MNEs in Korea. Sun, Mellahi and Thun conduct a qualitative study of political embeddedness of foreign MNEs in the Chinese automotive industry. The impact of returnee entrepreneurs, FDI and interfirm employee mobility in affecting the innovation performance of Chinese high-tech firms is studied in Liu, Lu, Filatotchev, Buck and Wright. The next two papers focus on international marketing. Dou, Li, Zhou and Su analyze relationship satisfaction between global professional service firms and their clients in China. Lastly, Sinkovics, Jean and Cavusgil examine the role played by information technology in international customer-supplier relationships in Taiwan. The issue concludes with an article by Colantone and Sleuwaegen examining the impacts of globalization through international trade flows on the entry and exit patterns of manufacturing firms in eight European countries.

No Exit: Failure to Exit Under Uncertainty

Existing studies of exit delay typically focus on rational, behavioral, or organizational explanations in isolation. We integrate these different theoretical explanations, developing testable hypotheses for each, and examine them using the population of US banks between 1984 and 1997. Banks’ exit behavior is not consistent with theories emphasizing the option value of avoiding re-entry costs; however, patterns of exit do support models of rational delay under ability uncertainty. Controlling for this source of rational delay, we find evidence of delay due to behavioral bias – firms discount negative signals of profitability relative to positive signals – and organizational considerations – delay increases with the separation of ownership and control. These results demonstrate that all three sets of theories are necessary to describe exit behavior.

ANALYSING QUITS AND SEPARATIONS FROM THE ROYAL NAVY

Manning difficulties and retention of skilled personnel is a timely issue in the British armed forces, and especially in the all‐volunteer Royal Navy. Allied with difficulties of matching personnel numbers and posts, significant skill mismatches can take a long time to eradicate, with obvious financial and operational penalties. In the light of these factors, a holistic understanding of the exit behaviour of naval personnel is vital for naval manpower planners. This paper analyses ratings’ voluntary (quits) and involuntary (separation) exit patterns from the Royal Navy using an independent competing risks hazard regression analysis framework. The results show that both voluntary and involuntary exits are pro cyclical with respect to macroeconomic and labour market conditions for both male and female ratings. Male ratings are more likely to quit or separate due to a lack of promotion to higher ranks as compared with females. Male ratings are also more likely to quit as a result of a hectic operational tempo when compared with their female counterparts. Frequency of sea/shore deployments also seems to exert a significant effect with respect to quits and separation outcomes of both genders. In terms of marital status married males are less likely to quit compared with their unmarried male counterparts, whereas the opposite is the case for female ratings.

Entry, Investment and Exit in Response to an Industry Shock: Effect of Firm Limited Foresight and Myopic Discounting

An important question in strategy is how firms adapt to a fundamental change in industry conditions. However, there is wide divergence in the extent to which firms are considered to be forward-looking in setting strategy in such a context. I focus on the effect of differences in two aspects of forward-looking strategy setting, foresight and myopia, in a formal model of how firms within an industry respond to a shock that leads to a long-run transition in the industry. I consider exogenous shocks to ease of resource accumulation over time, but initial firm heterogeneity and competitive interactions leads to a more complex, involved transition, from initial response through to long-run changes, due to the potentially different endogenous response of firms to the shocks. I find distinctive investment, entry and exit patterns that depend on the extent of foresight and myopia. Thus, from the perspective of a focal firm the choice of strategy is affected by other firm's foresight and myopia, as these shape the other firm's response to a shock and thus the competitive landscape faced by the focal firm.

Gendered trajectories: women, work, and social change in Japan and Taiwan

CONTENTS List of Tables and Figures xxx Acknowledgments xxxs Chapter One Gender Inequality and Social Change in Japan and Taiwan 1 Chapter Two The Development of Women's Labor Market Experiences 000 Chapter Three Comparing Labor Market Structures and Workplace Dynamics 000 Chapter Four Patterns of Labor Exits among Women 000 Chapter Five Challenges from the Home Front 000 Chapter Six Returning to the Labor Force 000 Chapter Seven Higher Education and Gender Inequality 000 Chapter Eight Conclusion 000 Appendix A Description of the Data Sources 000 Appendix B Supplementary Tables 000 Notes 000 Bibliography 000 Index 000 [[starts on page vii]] TABLES AND FIGURES Tables 1.1. Comparison of Japan and Taiwan 000 2.1. Average number of jobs experienced throughout men's and women's employment careers 000 2.2. Distributions of current labor market locations by gender and frequency of employer changes 3.1. Occupational Distributions of the Female Labor Force in Japan and Taiwan 6.1. Description of Work Trajectories of Homemaking Women, Ages 25-60 B.1. Descriptive Statistics of the SSM and TSC Samples by Gender B.2. Ordinary Least Squares Regression Analysis of Log Annual Earnings B.3. Discrete-Time Event History Models Predicting Labor Force Exits at Any Point of Time B.4. Discrete-Time Event History Models Predicting Labor Force Exit upon Marriage B.5. Discrete-Time Event History Models Predicting Labor Force Exit around First Childbirth B.6. Discrete-Time Event History Models Predicting Labor Force Reentry B.7. Multinomial Logit Models Predicting Married Women's Current Work Status in Japan B.8. Multinomial Logit Models Predicting Women's Current Occupational Status B.9. Multinomial Logit Models Predicting Women's Current Organizational Locations B.10. Multinomial Logit Models Predicting Women's Current Employment Status Figures Annual economic growth rates in Japan and Taiwan, 1956-2005 000 Women's Labor Force Participation and Number of Children by Age Group Age Distributions of Brides and Mothers Giving Live Birth in 2004/2005 Attitudes Regarding Gender Roles in Japan and Taiwan Trends in Female Labor Force Participation During the Life Course Distributions of Women's Careers in Japan and Taiwan Proportion of Ever-Married Women Returning to the Labor Force by Various Ages Percentage of Workers with Experience of Within-Organizational Job Shifting by Current Occupation Job Mobility and Percent Changes in Annual Earnings Predicted Annual Earnings by Gender, Country, and Employment Status 3.1. Distribution of the Labor Force by Industry, 1951-2000 3.2. Unemployment and Nonfarm Labor Force Growth Rates, 1950-2000 3.3. Annual Increases in the Male Population of Working Age, 1950-2000 3.4. Comparisons of the Labor Force by Firm Size in Japan and Taiwan 4.1. Explanatory Framework 4.2. Occupational Effects on Ever-Married Women's Labor Force Exits at Various Times 4.3. Effects of Firm Size on Ever-Married Women's Labor Force Exits at Various Times 4.4. Relative Odds of Labor Force Exit of Public- to Private-Sector Employees 4.5. Effects of Individual Characteristics on the Likelihood of Exiting the Labor Force 4.6. Predicted Probabilities for Labor Force Exit in the Marriage Year 5.1. Percentage of Japanese Men at Home by Eight O'Clock on Weekdays 5.2. Percent Approval of Working Mothers with Young Children among Taiwanese Women, by Education 5.3. Trends of Male-Wage-to-Household-Spending Ratio and Family Size, 1965-2000 6.1. Labor Force Participation Rates of Seven Birth Cohorts at Various Ages 6.2. Estimated Probability of Labor Force Reentry, Hypothetical Cases 6.3. Comparison of Occupations before and after a Work Interruption 6.4. Comparison of Firm Size between the Female Labor Force and Women Reentrants 6.5. Comparison of Employment Status between the Female Labor Force and Women Reentrants 6.6. Effects of Postmarital Entry on Women's Current Work Status in Japan 7.1. School Systems in Japan and Taiwan 7.2. Estimated Advancement Rates to Various Educational Institutions among Taiwanese Middle- School Graduates, 1950-1998 7.3. Trends in Percent Female among Students in Tertiary Institutions 7.4. Trends in Percent Female Students Admitted to the University of Tokyo and National Taiwan University 7.5. Percentage of Students in Applied Science Programs by Educational Level in Taiwan 7.6. Percent Female Students in Four-Year Universities by University Ownership 8.1. Likelihood of Job Locations of Married versus Single Women 8.2. Comparisons of Japanese Women's Occupational Distributions 8.3. Percentage of Ever-Married, Working-Age Taiwanese Women in the Labor Force by Their First Occupation 8.4. Job Growth Rates by Gender and Employment Status in Japan, 1996-2007

Effects of environmental conditions on the movement patterns of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) into and out of experimental huts in Thailand

Mark-release-recapture experiments with Aedes aegypti were performed using experimental huts equipped with entrance and exit traps to evaluate their movement patterns during a two-year period in Thailand. Results indicate no significant differences in the patterns of movement between the two years of observation. Movement into the huts occurred during the early morning period (06:00-11:00) with a peak at 07:00 in the summer and rainy season and 09:00 in the winter. In contrast, the exit pattern was observed during the late morning (09:00-12:00) and early afternoon (12:00-16:00), with a peak at 16:00 in the winter, 11:00 in the summer, and 14:00 in the rainy season. Multiple regression analysis indicated that movements of Ae. aegypti females into and out of the huts were impacted by humidity and temperature during the day.

Entrance, Exit and Exclusion: Labour Market Flows of Foreign-born Adults in Swedish ‘Divided Cities’

International migrants often occupy subordinate positions in the labour market or are excluded from it. Based on unique longitudinal data, this article investigates the socioeconomic mobility of the foreign-born adult population in two Swedish cities in the period 1993—2002. Patterns of entrance, exit and exclusion pertaining to the labour of foreign-born and native-born populations are compared, focusing on variations between ‘distressed’ neighbourhoods and surrounding city-regions. The results reveal that the foreign-born population experiences a high labour turnover, generally with increasing employment stability, but that considerable vulnerability still remains. However, surprisingly small differences were found between residents of ‘distressed’ and other neighbourhoods. Hence, ethnic rather than residential status influenced the employment situation of foreign-born adults in Swedish cities.

Using racial disproportionality and disparity indicators to measure child welfare outcomes

This article examines the utility of racial disproportionality and disparity data to measure the performance and outcomes of child welfare systems. Given the differential patterns of entry, exit and service responses for black, indigenous and ethnic minority children in many child welfare systems around the world, the conceptualisation of both quality and outcomes should take account of their needs. Clarity is required about which dimensions of effectiveness are measured by racial disparity indicators, in order to design strategies to address its causes and consequences. The article discusses how data on racial disproportionality and disparity can be used, as part of a suite of performance indicators, to highlight issues regarding the quality, equity and accessibility of child welfare services.

An integrated approach for optimal design of micro gas turbine combustors

The present work presents an approach for the optimized design of small gas turbine combustors, that integrates a 0-D code, CFD analyses and an advanced game theory multi-objective optimization algorithm. The output of the 0-D code is a baseline design of the combustor, given the required fuel characteristics, the basic geometry (tubular or annular) and the combustion concept (i.e. lean premixed primary zone or diffusive processes). For the optimization of the baseline design a simplified parametric CAD/mesher model is then defined and submitted to a CFD code. Free parameters of the optimization process are position and size of the liner hole arrays, their total area and the shape of the exit duct, while different objectives are the minimization of NOx emissions, pressure losses and combustor exit Pattern Factor. A 3D simulation of the optimized geometry completes the design procedure. As a first demonstrative example, the integrated design process was applied to a tubular combustion chamber with a lean premixed primary zone for a recuperative methane-fuelled small gas turbine of the 100 kW class.

Industry dynamics with knowledge-based competition: a computational study of entry and exit patterns

I propose a computational model of industry evolution capable of matching many stylized facts. It views the firm as a myopic but adaptive entity whose survival depends on its ability to perform various activities with greater efficiency than its rivals. In this model, the shakeout pattern arises naturally in the early stage of industrial development. I provide a full comparative dynamics analysis of how various industry-specific factors determine the numbers and the rates of entries and exits over time as well as the ages of the exiting firms.

Industry Dynamics with Knowledge-Based Competition: A Computational Study of Entry and Exit Patterns

I propose a computational model of industry evolution capable of matching many stylized facts. It views the firm as a myopic but adaptive entity whose survival depends on its ability to perform various activities with greater efficiency than its rivals. In this model, the shakeout pattern arises naturally in the early stage of industrial development. I provide a full comparative dynamics analysis of how various industry-specific factors determine the numbers and the rates of entries and exits over time as well as the ages of the exiting firms.

Firm export dynamics and the geography of trade

Two recent trends in international economics have been an increased focus on the geography of trade (e.g. what factors determine where a country exports) and the emergence of new theoretical and empirical work examining exporting activity at the firm-level. However, data limitations have prevented much progress in combining these two areas, because very few countries provide firm-level data breaking down firm exports by their destination. This paper uses a unique survey of Irish exporting firms with information on over fifty destinations for a five-year period to fill some of the gaps in this empirical literature. In particular we investigate how well the predications of a model of exporting with firm heterogeneity fits with the patterns of this detailed data source. Amongst our findings are that firm productivity differences are a factor in explaining the number of export markets a firm has but the prediction of a hierarchy of markets could only be weakly upheld by the data. Firm involvement in individual export markets is found to be much more dynamic than export status. Entry and exit to markets is shown to be a quantifiably important component of overall export flows, with this factor becoming more important for less popular markets. The paper also shows how the patterns of entry and exit into export markets combine to determine the overall firm-level distribution of number of markets entered.

Estratégia profissional e mimetismo empresarial: os planos de saúde odontológicos no Brasil

This article analyzes the organizational model of the dental health industry. The main organizational leaders in this industry are the professional cooperatives and group dental insurance companies. The theoretical basis of the article is the organizational theory developed by Di Maggio and Powell. The dental health industry consists of a great number of small and very dynamic companies, however an expressive part of clients and profit are concentrated in a few large companies. The results show that the industry has expanded the number of clients after the creation of the National Health Insurance Agency. The regulation regime has forced institutional changes in the firms with regard to the market entry, permanence or exit patterns. There was no evidence that the regulatory rules have interfered with the development and financial conditions of the industry. The average profitability of the sector, especially among the group dental insurance companies, is extremely high.

Entry, Exit and Plant-Level Dynamics over the Business Cycle

This paper analyzes the implications of plant-level dynamics over the business cycle. We first document basic patterns of entry and exit of U.S. manufacturing plants, in terms of employment and productivity, between 1972 and 1997. We show how entry and exit patterns vary during the business cycle, and that the cyclical pattern of entry is very different from the cyclical pattern of exit. Second, we build a general equilibrium model of plant entry, exit, and employment and compare its predictions to the data. In our model, plants enter and exit endogenously, and the size and productivity of entering and exiting plants are also determined endogenously. Finally, we explore the policy implications of the model. Imposing a firing tax that is constant over time can destabilize the economy by causing fluctuations in the entry rate. Entry subsidies are found to be effective in stabilizing the entry rate and output.

Entry and exit by new versus existing firms

Firms relocating across industries or product lines are empirically relevant in industry dynamics: they account for 22% of exit; and two-thirds of surviving firms alter their product mix every 5 years. Yet, existing theories of industry dynamics focus exclusively on new entrants and assume that firm exit is synonymous with failure. This paper proposes a model that incorporates entry and exit by both new and existing firms into a standard framework of industry dynamics. There are two forms of exit: a firm may shut down by selling its assets to earn their salvage value, or reallocate its assets at a cost to enter another industry or product line. In equilibrium, a low-skill firm shuts down from and a high-skill firm transfers out of an industry with a low state of demand. We show the model is consistent with a series of stylized facts pertaining to the entry and exit patterns of new versus existing firms.

Entry and Exit in the Nonprofit Sector

Abstract We study the entry and exit dynamics of nonprofit public charities using 1989-2003 tax return data. The observed patterns can be understood using a dynamic industry model based on Jovanovic (1982) that incorporates profit-deviation and a non-redistribution constraint. Both features generate a high exit threshold which implies high net entry rates and low exit rates. The data reveal that nonprofit gross entry rates are lower than those of for-profits in services, while extremely low exit rates (across both sectors and time) result in net entry rates nearly 3 times larger than that of for-profit firms. We find that the behavior of new public charities is remarkably similar to that found in studies of private firms (e.g. new firms begin smaller than the industry mean, but grow faster). However, exit patterns diverge sharply. Besides relatively low exit rates, the survival rate of new nonprofit firms greatly exceeds those found in studies on services and manufacturing. In addition we find that the hazard rate of exit declines with age and size, and with size conditional on age.

Mental Health and Labor Force Exits in Older Workers: the Mediating or Moderating Roles of Physical Health and Job Factors

This paper extends earlier health and work studies by examining how mental health affects transitions out of paid work in the years prior to the traditional Social Security retirement ages. Given recent changes in the labor market, optimal mental health may be as important a prerequisite for continuing employment as good physical health. This study uses data from the Health and Retirement Study to examine how mental health is linked to transitions to early retirement or other unemployment in 1996 for middle-aged adults who were currently working in 1992 and whether physical health, job, or sociodemographic factors affect those links. The study results indicated that mental health plays a strong and significant role in the move from paid work to other unemployment in three ways, net of other documented health, job, and sociodemographic correlates of work status. First, higher baseline CES-D depressive symptoms predicted the transition to retiree in male workers. Second, increased CES-D depressive symptoms between 1992 and 1994 (net of baseline symptoms) predicted exits from paid employment and into other unemployment by 1996. Finally, low job autonomy did not have the hypothesized moderating effect on the mental health-work status link. The results also indicated that mental health may be an even more important predictor of transitions out of paid work among middle-aged workers than are physical health and functioning and that patterns of labor force exit differ for men and women.

A game-theoretic analysis of wireless access point selection by mobile users

A user located in a congested area of a wireless LAN may benefit by moving to a less-crowded area and using a less-loaded access point. This idea has gained attention from researchers in recent literature [A. Balachandran, P. Bahl, G. Voelker, Hot-spot congestion relief in public-area wireless networks, in: IEEE WMCSA, Callicoon, NY, June 2002; M. Satyanarayanan, Pervasive computing: visions and challenges, IEEE Personal Communications 8 (4) (2001) 10–17]. However, its effectiveness and stability are questionable. Each user selects the access point that offers the optimal trade-off between load and distance to be traveled. Since users are selfish, a user’s selection may adversely impact other users, in turn motivating them to change their selections. Also, future user arrivals and exits may invalidate current selections. This paper presents the first game-theoretic analysis of this idea. We model access point selection as a game, characterize the Nash equilibria of the system and examine distributed myopic selections that naturally mimic selfish users. We analytically and empirically assess the impact of user diversity and dynamic exit patterns on system behavior. The paper contributes to a deeper understanding of the costs, benefits and stability of such a solution in various usage scenarios, which is an essential pre-requisite for real-world deployment.